Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Getting in early on my favorite buy low team in the league tonight. Buy low coming off bad road loss (which is like every road game for them) and the added Ewing Effect proposition.

Sixers -6 for my lungs!!!! (Insert Stu Feiner voice)

Also.......

Sacramento +6.5 to fade OKC’s difficult spot with bags packed and thinking about the Bucks game tomorrow.
 

tims4wins

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Getting in early on my favorite buy low team in the league tonight. Buy low coming off bad road loss (which is like every road game for them) and the added Ewing Effect proposition.

Sixers -6 for my lungs!!!! (Insert Stu Feiner voice)

Also.......

Sacramento +6.5 to fade OKC’s difficult spot with bags packed and thinking about the Bucks game tomorrow.
Sixers up 15 at half. Nicely done
 

HomeRunBaker

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Sixers up 15 at half. Nicely done
Everyones favorite villain Tobias Harris took the opportunities he had pre-ASB last year and ran with it for a 34/8/7 or something like that. Knicks cut it to 6 late so the sweat was real.

Kings up 18 in the 3rd too. NBA is flowing.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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DraftKings with a +245 prop on Harden and Westbrook combining for over 60.5 against the Knicks tonight. 59. Glad I didn’t pull the trigger.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Pulled the trigger on Lowry and Booker over 5.5 3P makes for +300 and hit it pretty good. I’ve stopped betting sports for a while but that felt juicy.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hoping I can get some overnights on the board for tomorrow before I call it a night. There will be three motivated teams coming off losses playing inferior opponents. I already bought some Milwaukee at -10.5 and -11 (it's already up to -11.5) at home against Indiana.........but looking to send piles on Boston (@Cleveland) and Oklahoma City (@Detroit) hoping to keep the number I'm laying under 8 in each game which shouldn't be a problem with OKC but some concerns on the Celtics number.

Edit: I will look to use this same angle on Thurs night when Denver visits Charlotte off their embarrassing home blowout loss to the shorthanded and god awful Warriors team.

Edit2: Wow, this is shaping up to be a night for great spots which generally turns out to be really really good......or really really bad. Two more good ones are fading a pair of teams coming off huge wins tonight, getting on an airplane to travel, only to play again tomorrow night. Playing Memphis +2 @brooklyn and Chicago @Minnesota provided I'm getting at least 4 points which I am expecting once a number comes out.
 
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Joe Sixpack

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Hoping I can get some overnights on the board for tomorrow before I call it a night. There will be three motivated teams coming off losses playing inferior opponents. I already bought some Milwaukee at -10.5 and -11 (it's already up to -11.5) at home against Indiana.........but looking to send piles on Boston (@Cleveland) and Oklahoma City (@Detroit) hoping to keep the number I'm laying under 8 in each game which shouldn't be a problem with OKC but some concerns on the Celtics number.

Edit: I will look to use this same angle on Thurs night when Denver visits Charlotte off their embarrassing home blowout loss to the shorthanded and god awful Warriors team.

Edit2: Wow, this is shaping up to be a night for great spots which generally turns out to be really really good......or really really bad. Two more good ones are fading a pair of teams coming off huge wins tonight, getting on an airplane to travel, only to play again tomorrow night. Playing Memphis +2 @brooklyn and Chicago @Minnesota provided I'm getting at least 4 points which I am expecting once a number comes out.
Celtics -2 and OKC -7
 

Joe Sixpack

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I still like the Celtics at -2 even with the depleted lineup. The young guys get a chance to prove themselves against one of the league's worst teams. They should find a way to win. Especially if Tatum plays (he's now listed as probable).
 

HomeRunBaker

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I still like the Celtics at -2 even with the depleted lineup. The young guys get a chance to prove themselves against one of the league's worst teams. They should find a way to win. Especially if Tatum plays (he's now listed as probable).
I agree. This is an ideal spot for the Celtics here.
 

tmracht

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Nice call guys hope you hit it, I tailed based on your discussions :D
 

HomeRunBaker

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Nice call guys hope you hit it, I tailed based on your discussions :D
Love to hear this! Nice!


For tonight.......

* I got in early on the UNDER in Clippers/Rockets at 236.5 as I expect this to drop. Since the Clips were hammered in their first game post-ASB and Kawhi’s statement they have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to under 100 points. The one exception was vs a depleted Sixers team who wanted a track meet and the Clips came out flat. They won’t be flat tonight I think this game could stay way under without so much as a sweat.

* Got some Denver -10 at Charlotte but waiting for 1H number to come out which will be my larger play. Some lineup uncertainties keeping this number off the board early.

Edit: Denver 1H locked in at -5.5 (there are -6 out there too). Grabbed some Sacramento -5 to continue to fade the Sixers on the road.
 
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Joe Sixpack

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Nice call guys hope you hit it, I tailed based on your discussions :D
Unfortunately I got the Thunder at -7.5 but I went 3 for 4 overall, so it was a good night (Bucks, Grizz, Celtics).

Following HRB with Kings -5 and Denver -5.5 1H. Staying away from the o/u.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That moment when you bet against Phoenix.......and Aron Baynes, who has scored all of 77 points in 13 games over the last 2 months, decides to have his Acie Earl game and drop a 37/16 line with 9 three’s. Good grief.
 

benhogan

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That moment when you bet against Phoenix.......and Aron Baynes, who has scored all of 77 points in 13 games over the last 2 months, decides to have his Acie Earl game and drop a 37/16 line with 9 three’s. Good grief.
did Baynes/Whiteside have some sort of pre-game secret agreement to get big man values back up????
 

Koufax

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I forgot that Acie Earl ever had a game. Yes, he had one against the Celtics, scoring 40 points in a losing effort. I would not bother posting this but for my discovery in chasing this down that his college major was "Leisure Studies". Why didn't I think of that?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I forgot that Acie Earl ever had a game. Yes, he had one against the Celtics, scoring 40 points in a losing effort. I would not bother posting this but for my discovery in chasing this down that his college major was "Leisure Studies". Why didn't I think of that?
I was torn between an Acie Earl or Randy Breuer reference. Both stink and they suck!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Best for today is Under 226 in Clipper/Lakers. Like the Rockets game I expect playoff like intensity/pace. I lean to Clips too as they are now 10-0 with lineup intact but even more impressive is their defense with this group which leads to a slower pace. Like many Laker games I’ll possibly look for an in-game Under at the start of the 4th as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Easy pickings in the Laker game and the 4Q pace continues to come to a crawl when the Lakers are protecting a lead.

Tonight’s that sticks out is the Over 222 in Bucks/Nuggets.

*Milwaukee without Giannis hurts their defense quite a bit and they still avg 120ppg in games he is out.

*The scoring in Nuggets games over the past two months is 15 pts higher than in the first two months.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Easy pickings in the Laker game and the 4Q pace continues to come to a crawl when the Lakers are protecting a lead.

Tonight’s that sticks out is the Over 222 in Bucks/Nuggets.

*Milwaukee without Giannis hurts their defense quite a bit and they still avg 120ppg in games he is out.

*The scoring in Nuggets games over the past two months is 15 pts higher than in the first two months.
Pretty brutal that no announcement was made until just prior to game time that Milwaukee would be sitting Bledsoe, Middleton, and every other starter for this game. This is one of those things that Silver really needs to address as sports betting becomes legalized in nearly all states......you must have fair disclosure to your customer. Still managed to get the 1H Over for a little saving grace but that 31-point 3Q was the death of this total.
 

benhogan

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Pretty brutal that no announcement was made until just prior to game time that Milwaukee would be sitting Bledsoe, Middleton, and every other starter for this game. This is one of those things that Silver really needs to address as sports betting becomes legalized in nearly all states......you must have fair disclosure to your customer. Still managed to get the 1H Over for a little saving grace but that 31-point 3Q was the death of this total.
Holy crap. HRB what are you going to do? You were crushing win totals this season (massively short Portland) you were pretty much locked in on 90% of your preseason picks if I recall correctly?

sorry dude
 

richgedman'sghost

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Yeah I'm curious what the casinos and the bettors will do regarding team over/unders. Obviously it depends on when or if the NBA/NHL comes back and what the rest of the season consists of. If they just come back and start with the playoffs, will the casinos pay out since it won't be a complete 82 game season? Would they consider the bet a no play and just refund your money? Interesting to see what happens. The difference in previous shortened seasons was that the season started late so it was known beforehand how many games would be played.
What happened after the 94 baseball strike? Did the casinos pay out on over unders?
 

Joe Sixpack

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For win total over/under, most books would consider it no action and refund all wagers.

I've heard of at least one book that said it would pay out if the over was already hit, but my guess is that would be uncommon.

As of now all the sportsbooks I have bets with are holding on until an official announcement is made regarding the rest of the season.

I did pretty awful with my win totals this year so it's a welcome development for me. Sorry HRB
 

djbayko

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Damn. Reading this thread reminded me that I have a few thousand in win totals that I didn't even think of when they suspended the season. Gonna have to go back and look at how much winnings I'm at risk of being screwed out of.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Holy crap. HRB what are you going to do? You were crushing win totals this season (massively short Portland) you were pretty much locked in on 90% of your preseason picks if I recall correctly?

sorry dude
The Win Totals were a small portion of my investment and those will all be voided since 82 haven’t been played. The vomit-inducing thought is all of my Division Win bets, Yes/No playoff bets that were going to sweep at huge prices, and of course sweeping everything fading Portland. Pretty devastating from a wagering perspective as I had an avg of 5-6 plays across 5 different shops but as I was taught many moons ago......don’t waste time worrying about things you can’t control. Kinda gross though but we’ll see how this all plays out.
 

benhogan

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The Win Totals were a small portion of my investment and those will all be voided since 82 haven’t been played. The vomit-inducing thought is all of my Division Win bets, Yes/No playoff bets that were going to sweep at huge prices, and of course sweeping everything fading Portland. Pretty devastating from a wagering perspective as I had an avg of 5-6 plays across 5 different shops but as I was taught many moons ago......don’t waste time worrying about things you can’t control. Kinda gross though but we’ll see how this all plays out.
Yea you were very accurate on your pre-season NBA team predictions (especially Portland & many others).

I was also looking forward to your NCAA tournament picks (made a few $$$ on some of your insight last year)

Sucks
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yea you were very accurate on your pre-season NBA team predictions (especially Portland & many others).

I was also looking forward to your NCAA tournament picks (made a few $$$ on some of your insight last year)

Sucks
I know. I had some teams I felt were ready to make a deep run and others who I felt would flame out very early. Had my rooms booked at Borgata and was excited to be planted in an oversized leather chair at Resorts sports book for 4 days. Instead, the stepdaughter moved in like we are riding out a blizzard and I’m already losing what little is left of my mind.
 

benhogan

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I know. I had some teams I felt were ready to make a deep run and others who I felt would flame out very early. Had my rooms booked at Borgata and was excited to be planted in an oversized leather chair at Resorts sports book for 4 days. Instead, the stepdaughter moved in like we are riding out a blizzard and I’m already losing what little is left of my mind.
the NCAA was wide open for mid-majors to do damage.

get out the Scrabble board and hang in there
 

The Gray Eagle

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If the winners were determined by how good the food actually tastes, (not things like healthiness or popularity) Bojangles would waltz to the championship.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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And we’re back! Won a couple hundred bucks with LeBron and Kawhi over 4.5 made 3P FG. If the first two games were any indication, might be a good time to bet the under.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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And we’re back! Won a couple hundred bucks with LeBron and Kawhi over 4.5 made 3P FG. If the first two games were any indication, might be a good time to bet the under.
I feel like a dummy not jumping on the Texas over tonight. Had a feeling this would be a wild one.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Anything looking good tonight? The O/Us I see on DraftKings don’t look very juicy. Zion over 2.5 dunks seems like it might be worth a few bucks.

edit: he’s still on a minutes restriction so maybe not.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Raptors -0.5 in 1Q feels like easy money, which obviously makes me hesitant.

Maybe they are due for a stinker but this feels like a game the Celtics will need to work themselves into. Toronto is tough as nails, and have come out strong in every bubble game.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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Raptors -0.5 in 1Q feels like easy money, which obviously makes me hesitant.

Maybe they are due for a stinker but this feels like a game the Celtics will need to work themselves into. Toronto is tough as nails, and have come out strong in every bubble game.
Reverse lock lol