It was a rough 24 hours with these two LA teams.....not as rough as your wife’s but I digress.... but I have nobody to blame but myself for not sticking to capping Pace at different portions of the game. Thank god for Miami I’ll leave it at that. Both games flew over 1H and the Lakers do what the Lakers do in the 2H and stall to a crawl. I was ready to pummel the Lakers 2H under and then look for another Live spot for more.......then it shot up immediatley from 116.5 to 1117.5 AND not one but 2 respected cappers I know had a play on the Over so I decided to wait and evaluate. With hardly any scoring over first part of the 3rd I never had a chance to get anything down and then I got greedy and refused to hedge some Lakers once they took a 6-pt lead.I trusted you, HRB. I'm now living on the street and my wife is a sex slave in some country of whose name I have never even heard.
You convinced me to bet this and I accidentally clicked the Utah money line instead. Fuck me.I really like the Over in the Nuggets/Jazz game. Both teams had trouble cutting off the angles of the shot creators allowing them to get pretty much wherever they wanted. While I don’t expect another 260-pt game I do expect it to break well into the 220’s so Over 217 is a big likey for me here.
GL. I don’t see any reason why we don’t go down to the wire again.You convinced me to bet this and I accidentally clicked the Utah money line instead. Fuck me.
I could cash out and take the idiot tax but I'm going to let it ride.
My opinion on this game is shifting. I’m watching both teams who were up 1-0 come out flat and trail after 1Q so came here to post my play on Philly +1.5 in 1Q but if Porzongis is out you have not only the 1-0 series letdown but the Porzongis letdown with the opponent missing a star player. I am looking at some stuff with Dallas here.Hrb, clippers team total. What do we think? Barring another extreme drought, it looks like an easy hit
It's still at 117.5
Yeah, I love in game betting instead of static betting. Makes it much more fun. I had Lakers last night and didn’t like how they looked at all. Should have cashed out and gone Portland.For those with access to Live or In-game wagering (which should be everyone in 2020). I can’t stress enough the value of NBA regression plays. I ran into an ideal spot today in this Den/Utah game. It was clear early on that Utah was the more motivated team today and in control of the game.......but had a brief period where they lost focus as the Nuggets went on a mini-run to cut lead to 13. We’ve all watched enough NBA to see this coming. When the Jazz called timeout the in-game number was Utah -8.5 and they quickly ripped it up to a 20+ point lead. Moral of story.....keep eyes open for regression plays following (2H especially) a run that leads to a timeout. You’ll find some great lines much of the time.
Good read. Btw, the opposite of regresssion is........I went with Sixers +160 pregame and then grabbed Celtics +160 when they went down a few points in the 1Q.
I like ML plays for this type of thing since you can get + odds on both ends instead of -110 for a spread bet.
Yeah the usual dynamic where you expect a bounce back at home from a team down 2-0 is not gonna happen, although oddly enough the stats show that the "home" team in the bubble is still somehow showing an advantage (trying to find where I read this recently).Good read. Btw, the opposite of regresssion is........
This Sixers team just may quit and lose by 40. Speaking of which.....in this unique format without G3 & G4 returning to the underdogs home floor you will have teams packing it in and looking to head home for the......autumn? Like how much fight will a team have down 2-0 and trailing double digits in G3 or down 3-0 in an elimination game?
I went and layed 13.5 just 20 min after my regression speech. Moral of story......be nimble. I guess lol.
Edit: Took more at -20.5.
Ugh that’s worse than me misclicking the wrong bet. Perils of mobile betting but maybe we’ll both get lucky.My 2 year old stole my phone when I wasn’t looking and pressed the cash out button. Aaaaargh. Would have been in perfect hedge situation with this last game.
Yes the former G3 home team 1Q lock was yesterday’s G2 bounce back team 1Q lock. Hope this continues w the Pacers today.Yeah the usual dynamic where you expect a bounce back at home from a team down 2-0 is not gonna happen, although oddly enough the stats show that the "home" team in the bubble is still somehow showing an advantage (trying to find where I read this recently).
You simply cannot underestimate the energy that these virtual fans are bringing!!Yeah the usual dynamic where you expect a bounce back at home from a team down 2-0 is not gonna happen, although oddly enough the stats show that the "home" team in the bubble is still somehow showing an advantage (trying to find where I read this recently).
3 full minutes of no scoring is not good for 1Q Overs. UghI just took:
MIL/ORL under 222
Portland +3 1Q
Over 58.5 1Q
Lillard to score more points than Davis
I don't believe in LAL and think Portland comes out gangbusters. HRB's analysis checks out but I'm going with the gut.
I don’t know the numbers on this but LeBron begins most games getting JaVale involved on some type of pick n roll or flash at the rim. You may want to check out his price on this prop the rest of the way.Saved by a “for the hell of it” bet on CJ to score the first basket of the game.
You sold me. I went under in LAL/POR. Lead me to the promised land, HRB.* I think Milwaukee comfortably wins these next 3 games by double digits. I like the full game number in these opposed to 1H or 1Q as I expect the Magic’s resistance to runs weaken as the series progresses. No need for shorter term Q or H variance when I feel the Bucks will have a lead close to 20 at some point in the 2H of these games. 12.5 is still reasonable......I may stay away when they get to 14 or higher in the G4 and G5 (especially).
* Lakers/Bucks pace has stalled to a crawl and the number isn’t yet fully adjusted. They haven’t broke 200 in either game and defenses are becoming more familiar with the half court sets. It will take lights out 3-point shooting for this to not stay Under 224.5
I was literally on the road running errands all day yesterday and unable to really post my thoughts. Literally pulled over several times during timeouts to make in-game plays. Love NBA Radio!!
I faded Port’s total. Expecting mean reversion and more half court offense. They have a LOT of foul issues. If LA is smart they’ll drive the ball and get their guys off the court.If anyone is around you may want to jump on the Lakers 2H Under TT 59. Outrageous number.
Edit: Pretty awful start.
I always wait for the start of the 4th to hammer the Under in Lakers games. I’m such a greedy ass sometimes. 4Q when Lakers have small lead is ALWAYS a halfcourt slow pace.I faded Port’s total. Expecting mean reversion and more half court offense. They have a LOT of foul issues. If LA is smart they’ll drive the ball and get their guys off the court.