Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

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I trusted you, HRB. I'm now living on the street and my wife is a sex slave in some country of whose name I have never even heard.
It was a rough 24 hours with these two LA teams.....not as rough as your wife’s but I digress.... but I have nobody to blame but myself for not sticking to capping Pace at different portions of the game. Thank god for Miami I’ll leave it at that. Both games flew over 1H and the Lakers do what the Lakers do in the 2H and stall to a crawl. I was ready to pummel the Lakers 2H under and then look for another Live spot for more.......then it shot up immediatley from 116.5 to 1117.5 AND not one but 2 respected cappers I know had a play on the Over so I decided to wait and evaluate. With hardly any scoring over first part of the 3rd I never had a chance to get anything down and then I got greedy and refused to hedge some Lakers once they took a 6-pt lead.
I’m hoping my next 24 hours are better than your wife’s. ;)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Early game:

Lineup change for the Nets moving TLC into the starting lineup. They are going to be looking to push pace and outscore Toronto. I hate the numbers here they seem so tight....226 game, 115 1H....I’m going to look for a better number early on live should each team start slow as they did on Monday.
 

tmracht

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You know there's some lucky degenerate out there that smashed an ORL/MIA/HOU/POR ML parlay.
Yeah there was a time I used to do make crazy underdog parlays just for the entertainment value so I'm sure someone hit it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I really like the Over in the Nuggets/Jazz game. Both teams had trouble cutting off the angles of the shot creators allowing them to get pretty much wherever they wanted. While I don’t expect another 260-pt game I do expect it to break well into the 220’s so Over 217 is a big likey for me here.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I really like the Over in the Nuggets/Jazz game. Both teams had trouble cutting off the angles of the shot creators allowing them to get pretty much wherever they wanted. While I don’t expect another 260-pt game I do expect it to break well into the 220’s so Over 217 is a big likey for me here.
You convinced me to bet this and I accidentally clicked the Utah money line instead. Fuck me.

I could cash out and take the idiot tax but I'm going to let it ride.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You convinced me to bet this and I accidentally clicked the Utah money line instead. Fuck me.

I could cash out and take the idiot tax but I'm going to let it ride.
GL. I don’t see any reason why we don’t go down to the wire again.

Celtics 1Q Total adjusted down to 53 and righy so. Looking hard at the 1H of Under 106.5 as both teams second units really struggled scoring in G1 and I don’t see that changing. Out of the 1Q, 1H and FT I’m liking 1H the best.
 

ElUno20

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Hrb, clippers team total. What do we think? Barring another extreme drought, it looks like an easy hit

It's still at 117.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hrb, clippers team total. What do we think? Barring another extreme drought, it looks like an easy hit

It's still at 117.5
My opinion on this game is shifting. I’m watching both teams who were up 1-0 come out flat and trail after 1Q so came here to post my play on Philly +1.5 in 1Q but if Porzongis is out you have not only the 1-0 series letdown but the Porzongis letdown with the opponent missing a star player. I am looking at some stuff with Dallas here.

Edit: In addition to Phil +1.5 in 1Q I also played Celtics Under 27.5 in 1Q.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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For those with access to Live or In-game wagering (which should be everyone in 2020). I can’t stress enough the value of NBA regression plays. I ran into an ideal spot today in this Den/Utah game. It was clear early on that Utah was the more motivated team today and in control of the game.......but had a brief period where they lost focus as the Nuggets went on a mini-run to cut lead to 13. We’ve all watched enough NBA to see this coming. When the Jazz called timeout the in-game number was Utah -8.5 and they quickly ripped it up to a 20+ point lead. Moral of story.....keep eyes open for regression plays following (2H especially) a run that leads to a timeout. You’ll find some great lines much of the time.
 

BigSoxFan

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4 team parlay:

Raptors - Check
Jazz - Check
Celtics
Clippers

Nervous about Celtics.
 

BigSoxFan

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For those with access to Live or In-game wagering (which should be everyone in 2020). I can’t stress enough the value of NBA regression plays. I ran into an ideal spot today in this Den/Utah game. It was clear early on that Utah was the more motivated team today and in control of the game.......but had a brief period where they lost focus as the Nuggets went on a mini-run to cut lead to 13. We’ve all watched enough NBA to see this coming. When the Jazz called timeout the in-game number was Utah -8.5 and they quickly ripped it up to a 20+ point lead. Moral of story.....keep eyes open for regression plays following (2H especially) a run that leads to a timeout. You’ll find some great lines much of the time.
Yeah, I love in game betting instead of static betting. Makes it much more fun. I had Lakers last night and didn’t like how they looked at all. Should have cashed out and gone Portland.
 

Joe Sixpack

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I went with Sixers +160 pregame and then grabbed Celtics +160 when they went down a few points in the 1Q.

I like ML plays for this type of thing since you can get + odds on both ends instead of -110 for a spread bet.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I went with Sixers +160 pregame and then grabbed Celtics +160 when they went down a few points in the 1Q.

I like ML plays for this type of thing since you can get + odds on both ends instead of -110 for a spread bet.
Good read. Btw, the opposite of regresssion is........

This Sixers team just may quit and lose by 40. Speaking of which.....in this unique format without G3 & G4 returning to the underdogs home floor you will have teams packing it in and looking to head home for the......autumn? Like how much fight will a team have down 2-0 and trailing double digits in G3 or down 3-0 in an elimination game?

I went and layed 13.5 just 20 min after my regression speech. Moral of story......be nimble. I guess lol.

Edit: Took more at -20.5.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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This late game is sending me so many mixed messages. I’m passing pre-game and looking for live opportunities. I love the Dallas spot, I love the Clipper matchups. I’ll wait and find a good spot or I’ll wait to G3.
 

Joe Sixpack

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Good read. Btw, the opposite of regresssion is........

This Sixers team just may quit and lose by 40. Speaking of which.....in this unique format without G3 & G4 returning to the underdogs home floor you will have teams packing it in and looking to head home for the......autumn? Like how much fight will a team have down 2-0 and trailing double digits in G3 or down 3-0 in an elimination game?

I went and layed 13.5 just 20 min after my regression speech. Moral of story......be nimble. I guess lol.

Edit: Took more at -20.5.
Yeah the usual dynamic where you expect a bounce back at home from a team down 2-0 is not gonna happen, although oddly enough the stats show that the "home" team in the bubble is still somehow showing an advantage (trying to find where I read this recently).
 

BigSoxFan

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4 team parlay:

Raptors - Check
Jazz - Check
Celtics
Clippers

Nervous about Celtics.
My 2 year old stole my phone when I wasn’t looking and pressed the cash out button. Aaaaargh. Would have been in perfect hedge situation with this last game.
 

Joe Sixpack

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If you're planning on (or considering) hedging and the games are not at the same time, the better move is to not include it in the parlay in the first place. You then have the option to roll over the winnings onto that game or not.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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My 2 year old stole my phone when I wasn’t looking and pressed the cash out button. Aaaaargh. Would have been in perfect hedge situation with this last game.
Ugh that’s worse than me misclicking the wrong bet. Perils of mobile betting but maybe we’ll both get lucky.
 

HomeRunBaker

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All 4 of the G1 losers have stormed out of the gate today (yes I’m an idiot for passing on the Mavs 1Q here). It makes perfect sense based on approach....more desperate team vs more complacent team. The 1Q, first to 10 and first to 20’s will be in play tomorrow!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Early game:

* Pacers +1 1Q is my primary play here.

Also sprinkling some.....

* Pacers 1H/Heat FT +400 (double result prop)
* Over 216.5


Double result winner is when you correctly select the team to lead at the half and the team who wins the game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah the usual dynamic where you expect a bounce back at home from a team down 2-0 is not gonna happen, although oddly enough the stats show that the "home" team in the bubble is still somehow showing an advantage (trying to find where I read this recently).
Yes the former G3 home team 1Q lock was yesterday’s G2 bounce back team 1Q lock. Hope this continues w the Pacers today.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah the usual dynamic where you expect a bounce back at home from a team down 2-0 is not gonna happen, although oddly enough the stats show that the "home" team in the bubble is still somehow showing an advantage (trying to find where I read this recently).
You simply cannot underestimate the energy that these virtual fans are bringing!!
 

HomeRunBaker

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I guess I was one game off with my Duncan Robinson explosion. The Pacers defended him so well not allowing clean looks in G1 and they come out as if this is a preseason game. Some things make no sense.

Edit: Good quick adjustment. We overcome the Duncan barrage and multiple TJ MConnell iso’s down the stretch to book the W.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Tempted to take the Magic with 13 on a neutral floor but only playing the 1Q Over of 57.5 while waiting to see if anything in-game develops. I think this will be a fast and furious pace out of the gate.

Edit: Suddenly nobody can shoot inside the bubble. The Bucks are dialed in so if Orlando can go on a mini-run I may look for some Bucks in-game action.

Teams who lost G1 are now 6-1 heading into the late game and even the loser, OKC, came out with a ton of energy only to succumb to 8 1Q threes. I expect the Lakers to be ready much like the Bucks were today. It’s so difficult to lay 5 in 1Q when everyone in the world are on the Bucks but I can comfortably lay 2.5 and the Over 58 as well.
 
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Light-Tower-Power

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I just took:

MIL/ORL under 222
Portland +3 1Q
Over 58.5 1Q
Portland ML
Lillard to score more points than Davis

I don't believe in LAL and think Portland comes out gangbusters. HRB's analysis checks out but I'm going with the gut.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I just took:

MIL/ORL under 222
Portland +3 1Q
Over 58.5 1Q
Portland ML
Lillard to score more points than Davis

I don't believe in LAL and think Portland comes out gangbusters. HRB's analysis checks out but I'm going with the gut.
3 full minutes of no scoring is not good for 1Q Overs. Ugh

Danny Green spends the first 7.5 min absolutely killing the Lakers then once he leaves they only score 4 more over the final 4.5......stupid 1Q variance. This pace is not fast at all I refresh to try and get some under 224 or so.....only to find it is 216! Too sharp, too sharp.
 
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Light-Tower-Power

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1H under 104.5 was a pretty easy bet. I’m taking my just about break even and calling it a night. Hope for a miracle on Portland or Dame.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Saved by a “for the hell of it” bet on CJ to score the first basket of the game.
I don’t know the numbers on this but LeBron begins most games getting JaVale involved on some type of pick n roll or flash at the rim. You may want to check out his price on this prop the rest of the way.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* I think Milwaukee comfortably wins these next 3 games by double digits. I like the full game number in these opposed to 1H or 1Q as I expect the Magic’s resistance to runs weaken as the series progresses. No need for shorter term Q or H variance when I feel the Bucks will have a lead close to 20 at some point in the 2H of these games. 12.5 is still reasonable......I may stay away when they get to 14 or higher in the G4 and G5 (especially).

* Lakers/Bucks pace has stalled to a crawl and the number isn’t yet fully adjusted. They haven’t broke 200 in either game and defenses are becoming more familiar with the half court sets. It will take lights out 3-point shooting for this to not stay Under 224.5

I was literally on the road running errands all day yesterday and unable to really post my thoughts. Literally pulled over several times during timeouts to make in-game plays. Love NBA Radio!!
 

BigSoxFan

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* I think Milwaukee comfortably wins these next 3 games by double digits. I like the full game number in these opposed to 1H or 1Q as I expect the Magic’s resistance to runs weaken as the series progresses. No need for shorter term Q or H variance when I feel the Bucks will have a lead close to 20 at some point in the 2H of these games. 12.5 is still reasonable......I may stay away when they get to 14 or higher in the G4 and G5 (especially).

* Lakers/Bucks pace has stalled to a crawl and the number isn’t yet fully adjusted. They haven’t broke 200 in either game and defenses are becoming more familiar with the half court sets. It will take lights out 3-point shooting for this to not stay Under 224.5

I was literally on the road running errands all day yesterday and unable to really post my thoughts. Literally pulled over several times during timeouts to make in-game plays. Love NBA Radio!!
You sold me. I went under in LAL/POR. Lead me to the promised land, HRB.
 

Joe Sixpack

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I like the Celtics to cover tomorrow. I think the 76ers are ready to pack it in at this point. I'm also with you on the LA/Portland under.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bucks with the EASY cover!! Thank god for those “unwritten rules.” I stayed away from a middle/hedge at the half and 3Q because I am not trusting these beaten teams from pulling a Nuggets.

I also bet some pizza money on Bucks to win by 19-21 at +820......looking that square in the eye w 2 to go. Grrrrr.

I really like this Miami matchup and know that Indiana doesn’t have answers. I played them earlier in the series and sitting here pondering why I passed on this game today. Whenever I have these random moments of discipline it always seems to bite me in the ass.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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If anyone is around you may want to jump on the Lakers 2H Under TT 59. Outrageous number.

Edit: Pretty awful start.
 
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Red Averages

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If anyone is around you may want to jump on the Lakers 2H Under TT 59. Outrageous number.

Edit: Pretty awful start.
I faded Port’s total. Expecting mean reversion and more half court offense. They have a LOT of foul issues. If LA is smart they’ll drive the ball and get their guys off the court.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I faded Port’s total. Expecting mean reversion and more half court offense. They have a LOT of foul issues. If LA is smart they’ll drive the ball and get their guys off the court.
I always wait for the start of the 4th to hammer the Under in Lakers games. I’m such a greedy ass sometimes. 4Q when Lakers have small lead is ALWAYS a halfcourt slow pace.
 

HomeRunBaker

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These bubble playoffs are so unique with the underdog not returning home while still having to find a way to adjust to the better team in the same environment. I’m looking at teams in Brooklyn (and Orlando) as two teams who mentally have to be about checked out now KNOWING that they have zero chance to advance or even win another game (losing Joe Harris was a huge blow). Psychologically they wouldn’t seem to be able to sustain a 48-min effort against the superior team. We saw both have long droughts, both offensively and defensively in their last game and being one game closer to leaving the bubble I cannot fathom either being able to muster much resistance which should lead to longer Raptor and Bucks runs. We’ve also seen both favorites take their foot off the gas in their last so here is my game plan today with the Raptors. You can pretty much copy and paste it with the Bucks tomorrow. I’ll use “units” to best describe my bankroll strategy for these games.

* Raptors -8 1H (1 unit)
* Raptors -13 FT (2 unit)
* Nets hedge/middle either 2H or 2H in-game (between 1-2 units)

I’m looking to lock in a 1H win while seeking a spot to add another .5-1 unit win while creating a huge middle opportunity along with hedging the backdoor cover.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* You’re probably asking why I didn’t include the Sixers with this group, right? They are in a little different position as they probably don’t believe that they are the inferior team and that they should have won G3. They actually impressed me in this game and while I bought a Celtics 4-0 ticket at +120 prior to G3 I’m going to ride this one out. I will however be watching for Sixer body language that would suggest them about to be on the wrong side of a 20-0 run similar to G2......so looking for an in-game spot here.

* Not touching Clippper game preflop.

* Confused by this Jazz line. Are people not seeing why the Nuggets have given up 122 pt per 100 in the bubble? I’ll try a write up later but playing Jazz -3.5 and Over Jazz TT 110 for heaps here.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Philly came with energy and took it to the Celtics physically in the 1Q.
Philly defended their asses off in the 2Q forcing turnover while getting perimeter scoring from Milton and Burks.

For all their efforts, Philly is up 1. I expect Brad to make better defensive adjustments than Brown and once behind the Sixers may recognize their fate.

* Played Celtics 2H -5.5 for piles!
 
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