Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
What about Zion tonight? Spurs +3.5?
I liked the Clipper angle with the Mavs adding a proven star in Porzingis who changes the way they play when he’s in the lineup.
I don’t know what to make of Zion in his first regular season game. Will the ball run through him or will he be more of a complementary players slashing/following up on misses, etc......but the Pels have won 10 of their last 14 so you could make a case for this to be a change in their universe. I just don’t know what his role will be.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
I liked the Clipper angle with the Mavs adding a proven star in Porzingis who changes the way they play when he’s in the lineup.
I don’t know what to make of Zion in his first regular season game. Will the ball run through him or will he be more of a complementary players slashing/following up on misses, etc......but the Pels have won 10 of their last 14 so you could make a case for this to be a change in their universe. I just don’t know what his role will be.
Isn't Zion the ultimate hyped player, who will turn a recent 10-4 team into a playoff contender!
When, in reality, a rusty Zion will take the ball out of Ingram's hands?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Isn't Zion the ultimate hyped player, who will turn a recent 10-4 team into a playoff contender!
When, in reality, a rusty Zion will take the ball out of Ingram's hands?
Absolutely.....if that is how he is utilized. It's his first game so I have no idea if he'll be an on-the-ball iso player (where your point could be true) or an off-the-ball slasher hustling for offensive boards and backdoor cuts (where he could make them even more lethal offensively). My thing is......i have no idea how he will be used.

Well I bet on a dumb Zion recording a double double prop.
Props can be free money if you can catch guys on minutes restrictions before the market reacts. Case in point, Anthony Davis Unders (Pts, Reb, and Pts/Reb/Asst) against us on Monday. I can't say I love your play here.
 

Light-Tower-Power

a real people person
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2013
9,478
Nashua, NH
Absolutely.....if that is how he is utilized. It's his first game so I have no idea if he'll be an on-the-ball iso player (where your point could be true) or an off-the-ball slasher hustling for offensive boards and backdoor cuts (where he could make them even more lethal offensively). My thing is......i have no idea how he will be used.



Props can be free money if you can catch guys on minutes restrictions before the market reacts. Case in point, Anthony Davis Unders (Pts, Reb, and Pts/Reb/Asst) against us on Monday. I can't say I love your play here.
I don’t either but firing at a +470 with some profit...every once in a while.
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,986
Capela goes the entire 4th quarter without grabbing a rebound. I want to fucking vomit
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
Isn't Zion the ultimate hyped player, who will turn a recent 10-4 team into a playoff contender!
When, in reality, a rusty Zion will take the ball out of Ingram's hands?
Looks like the rust wore off by the 4th quarter.

Who guards him for the Celtics on Sunday? Semi or Grant?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Lakers don't seem as sharp on this East Coast swing as they have on their other trips. Getting blown out in Boston, being down in 1H vs Knicks while keeping them in the game for 48 minutes.

I played the Nets +5 tonight with a little ML sprinkle at +200.



We saw how Golden State reacted last night following the Portland OT thriller by being blown out by Utah. The Blazers are shorthanded again tonight and unless LIllard drops another 60 we should see another road workmanlike effort by Dallas. I also expect Porzingis to play much better in his second game back as the Blazers should really have a ton of trouble with the Mavs frontcourt length.

I played the Mavericks -4.5 earlier today and more at -5,5 just now.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Lakers and Mavs with 145 points at the half. The Lakers are prone to REALLY slowing the pace in the final 7-8 minutes of tight games particularly when they have a small lead. In-game players, keep an eye on the score and pace. Once the Lakers begin to walk it up in the 4Q that is the pace they usually play at to the wire.

Should be some fantastic opportunities for in-game Unders. I already began the festivities with some Under 115.5 for 2H (Under 260.5 for game) and trigger finger will be ready.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Clicked a 258.5 Under during that last TO. I’m thinking more will be following.

Edit: 255.5 too

Edit2: 3’s at buzzers suck lol.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Bought more 255.5 at Q break. As soon as I saw them already walking it up on both ends hit it again at 253.5. That’s probably gonna be it.....it’s now 246.5 so not going to be greedy. Unlikely to buy back for middle. Think I’m riding it out. If thing go as I expect this shouldn’t even be a sweat and OT a non-factor. Perfect storm in-game.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
The other nice thing about the Bulls tonight is that everywhere you listen through the media today they are all pumped up about the Pacers......about a player on a minutes restriction who hasn't played in a game for a year. Both the numbers I use show over 70% of wagers on the Pacers which along with paying attention to the media today show that the Pacers are a huge public sentiment play which while not perfect are long-term profitable to fade.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Change of Universe theory was so close tonight. Bulls played them tougher than I thought they would.
Not much you can do except not to be results-oriented. I had +9 and +8.5 pre-game then had in-games I bought in 2Q at +8.5 and +7.5. Sports betting is fun and profitable.....until it isn't lol.
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,986
Not much you can do except not to be results-oriented. I had +9 and +8.5 pre-game then had in-games I bought in 2Q at +8.5 and +7.5. Sports betting is fun and profitable.....until it isn't lol.
You know i thought of you last night and said "i hope he took the 9.5" damn
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
Not much you can do except not to be results-oriented. I had +9 and +8.5 pre-game then had in-games I bought in 2Q at +8.5 and +7.5. Sports betting is fun and profitable.....until it isn't lol.
Ugh. That's so wrong. Watched the end of that game, if Felicio could grab a freakin' rebound it's over.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
You know i thought of you last night and said "i hope he took the 9.5" damn
I had played it early at 8.5 and 9. Didn’t play the 7.5 open expecting it to go up (it did) and didn’t wait for game time expecting some buy back (there was) as it closed at 8.5 most places.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Ugh. That's so wrong. Watched the end of that game, if Felicio could grab a freakin' rebound it's over.
Yeah but that was nothing. I have learned to go fast and furious in college until Jan conference play begins when the edges quickly evaporate. Over the past few year prior to adhering to my new advice I’d have 10-15 college games over the course of a day and not a night would go by without something similar as last night happening. Totally numb to it.
One specific “fun” one from last year was Missouri St or Illinois St (or someone like that). My Under is comfortable only need to dodge OT. Team goes to line down 4 with 7 seconds to go. He makes first, purposely misses second, ball is bouncing around near half court with multiple bodies on the floor. Ball pops up into unsuspecting players hands as he shot puts a 45-footer toward the hoop releasing ball at 00:02. Nothing but net, on to OT and the Over gets there.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
Yeah but that was nothing. I have learned to go fast and furious in college until Jan conference play begins when the edges quickly evaporate. Over the past few year prior to adhering to my new advice I’d have 10-15 college games over the course of a day and not a night would go by without something similar as last night happening. Totally numb to it.
One specific “fun” one from last year was Missouri St or Illinois St (or someone like that). My Under is comfortable only need to dodge OT. Team goes to line down 4 with 7 seconds to go. He makes first, purposely misses second, ball is bouncing around near half court with multiple bodies on the floor. Ball pops up into unsuspecting players hands as he shot puts a 45-footer toward the hoop releasing ball at 00:02. Nothing but net, on to OT and the Over gets there.
Ha, know the feeling... my best friend and I still reminisce about the sizeable wager we had on the 2003 Ohio St/Miami Fiesta Bowl OVER...

We were cooked until numerous lucky/questionable calls and double OT
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Currently trying to keep the Cavs within 10.5 down the stretch.

Jumped on Sacramento to stay Under their Team Total of 206 pretty good. Kings on second leg of B2B, Clips get George and Bev back into their lineup defensively and the Clips held them to 85 in their other meeting this year. If I was a tout I’d brand this a “Whale Play!”

Edit: While I was writing this up the Cavs went on a quick 9-0 run. I’m just gonna stay in here for awhile.

Edit2: Solid win. Glad Jae Crowder isn’t a Raptor.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Kings begin 10-15 from behind arc in games first 17 minutes......quickly sinking the whale. Looking for some regression here.
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
4,481
Mansfield, MA
My plays for tonight: Jazz -2, Jokic over 8.5 assists and Bjelica over 7.5 rebounds.

I think the Jazz were a little underestimated here coming in on a road B2B. Line opened with Nuggets favored but I got in late.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Pre-Flop NBA tonight.

* Under 218 Phoenix game
* Denver +9.5 vs Utah
* Toronto -5.5 vs Indy
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
4,481
Mansfield, MA
Really awful gambling loss last night on the Hornets +14 when they were down 11 with a minute left and fouled Harden on a made 3pt shot to go down by 15.

I've got Toronto -5.5, Suns -3.5 and Hawks ML tonight.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Non-NBA for anyone who cares.

* Clemson +7.5
* New York Guardians +3.5 (XFL this weekend my buddy’s model)

While on XFL something to watch. Unlike the AAF’s low scoring debacles the rule changes in XFL has resulted in nearly 2x as many plays as the AAF so the Overs could be great value early on. Monitor these as they go. Obv a ton of variance at this stage.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
NBA All-Star Weekend begins Friday. I haven't look many years back yet but I do know that last season on the Wednesday prior to the weekend the Over went 9-1 which passes the smell test of players mailing it in defensively on their way toward vacation. Something to watch for on Wednesdays full slate and the two games on Thurs (including our game vs the Clippers). Weird stuff can happen this week so be ready for it.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
NBA All-Star Weekend begins Friday. I haven't look many years back yet but I do know that last season on the Wednesday prior to the weekend the Over went 9-1 which passes the smell test of players mailing it in defensively on their way toward vacation. Something to watch for on Wednesdays full slate and the two games on Thurs (including our game vs the Clippers). Weird stuff can happen this week so be ready for it.
the OVER may be the best bet this week

halftime
Minn 75
Tor 74
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
the OVER may be the best bet this week

halftime
Minn 75
Tor 74
Trending 5-2 Overs in the early games with two west coast to go.

We host Houston and the Clippers this week. The Garden could see some insane offensive fireworks on Tues and Thurs.
 
Last edited:

shawnrbu

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
27,586
The Land of Fist Pumps
NBA All-Star Weekend begins Friday. I haven't look many years back yet but I do know that last season on the Wednesday prior to the weekend the Over went 9-1 which passes the smell test of players mailing it in defensively on their way toward vacation. Something to watch for on Wednesdays full slate and the two games on Thurs (including our game vs the Clippers). Weird stuff can happen this week so be ready for it.
How many Overs hit last night out of 11 games?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
How many Overs hit last night out of 11 games?
Last night 5-6. The 5 days prior had been 40-19 and both tonight went over. It’s been a good angle for sure.

I did a preliminary long back on last year post-ASG to see how offensive rhythm would be affected by the long layoff. In first day back the Over went 1-5. I believe last year was the first year with an extended All Star break. Def be looking for some inflated numbers once play resumes and maybe find some good Under spots.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Got a little bit of Closing Line Value earlier in the week with LeBron -5.5 (now 6.5) and Over 301.5 (307 now) and took me a decent little value spot for MVP on Russell Westbrook at 11-1 and 9-1. Reasoning......

1. I expect LeBron's team to win.
2. Large number of stars on this team who I expect to defer or not be a large part of the offense due to injuries including Davis, Harden, Kawhi and Doncic
3. Westbrook has historically been aggressive in this game with two 41-point outings including an MVP

If you want some great value to add to your viewing enjoyment this is the box you want to click.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Played Memphis +11.5 overnight. The Grizz coming off a (bad) loss in Sacramento last night and the only spot tonight where a team has already played one game since the break playing a team off the long layoff. This "rust angle" was 8-1 in the NHL this winter. Memphis also has been one of the best in the league on the second nights of B2B.
 
Last edited:

shawnrbu

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
27,586
The Land of Fist Pumps
Sound bet. Bad beat. LeBron goes 11 for 12 from the line. Anthony Davis takes a 3 up 10 with 30 seconds to go and makes it. The Grizz intentionally foul down 11 with 15 seconds to go - that’s what college teams do.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Sound bet. Bad beat. LeBron goes 11 for 12 from the line. Anthony Davis takes a 3 up 10 with 30 seconds to go and makes it. The Grizz intentionally foul down 11 with 15 seconds to go - that’s what college teams do.
Yeah that was a fun one.

Got a good one tonight buying low on the Sixers at home -8.5 vs Atlanta. Philly being undervalued based on their performance on the road and as I’ve been preaching there hasn’t been any correlation this year between their road efforts and home games. On the other side, Atlanta coming off home win over the short handed Mavs. It’s a different spot on the road vs the short handed Sixers. I have this number at 12 and so I like me some -8.5 quote a bit here.

Philly 119
Atlanta 105
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Looking for Houston to cruise to a big win at home against a struggling and suddenly offensively challenged Grizzlies team playing without JJJ and Clarke. Laying the 11.5 with confidence for the game and -6.5 in the 1H for piles!

Houston 137
Memphis 105


Also.......

LA Clippers -6.5 (they may be primed to run off 15 straight)

Boston -5 (Brad B2B games are gold)

Under 218.5 Bos
(Good spot for correlated parlay)

Miami -12
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
I think you mean +5 on Boston right?

I also have Boston and Houston tonight. I like the idea of adding in Houston 1H
Yes +5. I’m not gonna lie I have allowed my dyslexia to not only cost me 3 wins since Sept but also turn them into 3 losses by clicking the wrong side of a total. I only recall once when it worked in my favor.

I’m a huge proponent of incorporating 1H wagers to reduce variance and/or 2x your play. I’ll use it in nearly all of my college Unders as end-game fouling and OT wreck havoc on variance. I’ll also use in spots like Houston as a big chalk to protect backdoors. If I’m playing big NBA chalk it’s almost certainly a super strong play so having 2x on it than I normally would is preferred.
 
Last edited:

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,439
Kiev, Ukraine
Looking for Houston to cruise to a big win at home against a struggling and suddenly offensively challenged Grizzlies team playing without JJJ and Clarke. Laying the 11.5 with confidence for the game and -6.5 in the 1H for piles!

Houston 137
Memphis 105


Also.......

LA Clippers -6.5 (they may be primed to run off 15 straight)

Boston -5 (Brad B2B games are gold)

Under 218.5 Bos
(Good spot for correlated parlay)

Miami -12
Mike Conley and Jaylen/Theis tried to screw you on the under but you still came through!
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
4,481
Mansfield, MA
Yes +5. I’m not gonna lie I have allowed my dyslexia to not only cost me 3 wins since Sept but also turn them into 3 losses by clicking the wrong side of a total. I only recall once when it worked in my favor.

I’m a huge proponent of incorporating 1H wagers to reduce variance and/or 2x your play. I’ll use it in nearly all of my college Unders as end-game fouling and OT wreck havoc on variance. I’ll also use in spots like Houston as a big chalk to protect backdoors. If I’m playing big NBA chalk it’s almost certainly a super strong play so having 2x on it than I normally would is preferred.
Yeah I added the Houston 1H and was nice to hit both. I also added some Boston ML. Nice to have a winning night, I've been on a bad run with NBA games lately.