you're involved 90 degreesEarly season tidbits:
* Best NBA teams ATS
* Utah Jazz 7-0 to the Under so far, +21 ppg cover margin.
* Orlando Magic 5-0 to the Under so far, 18.2 ppg cover margin. They play 4 games this week.
* Rockets are 0-6 ATS this season with a -12.2 cover margin. 1-5 ATS in 1H
* Grizzlies 5-0 ATS in 1H (they play Rockets tonight)
* Pelicans and Mavericks both 5-1 to the Over with +9.8 spread margins
The Durant comps, playing in LA w/ Bron and the kid seems painfully shy...probably not the right situation for Ingram.I was a big fan of Ingram coming out of Duke but his game hasn’t grown as I had expected. You can’t rush maturity.
Good job, ballsy bet. Philly is solid.Played me some Phoenix tonight too. I have them -5 here and getting it at a Pick
Rubio and Baynes have been culture changers for the Suns while Oubre continues to be severely underrated as an upgrade. The Suns won't be undervalued for much longer so taking advantage while we can. Philly is solid but coming off a road win on a trip is typically a good fade spot.....combine that will the still undervalued Suns I had to just trust the spot. I typically look for spots to play ON teams at the beginning of their road trip and then fade once they get a win and/or later in the trip especially if B2B is in play (or coming off B2B in the following game).Good job, ballsy bet. Philly is solid.
Ride Baynes, he'll pay off
plus 19 tonight
Bet he set some absolutely beastly screens for Booker tonight...Stu Van Gundy, on NBAtv, claimed Baynes is, hands down, the best screener in the NBA. I love that sh!t. It must be fun for Booker to play with a guy that wipes out his defender
not a bad strategy.Rubio and Baynes have been culture changers for the Suns while Oubre continues to be severely underrated as an upgrade. The Suns won't be undervalued for much longer so taking advantage while we can. Philly is solid but coming off a road win on a trip is typically a good fade spot.....combine that will the still undervalued Suns I had to just trust the spot. I typically look for spots to play ON teams at the beginning of their road trip and then fade once they get a win and/or later in the trip especially if B2B is in play (or coming off B2B in the following game).
Really surprised at that 212 Philly/Utah line.With so much college hoops yesterday I didn’t have time to even take a second look at the NBA. Getting early start today though.
U212 Philly/Utah. I have this at 204 so got in early as I expect this number to drop. Jazz haven’t played a game above 210 yet and their poor offensive efficiency doesn’t figure to get a bump playing against the Sixers defense. I see a plodding 104-100 Utah win here.
Considering Over in Memphis/Minn, Under Milw/Clips, Sacramento, and waiting for numbers to come out on Houston/GState.
Also interested to see how Dall/Orl total plays out with a big under team visiting a big over team.
Still holding steady at 211/211.5 too. Utah's avg final score is 195.6. HmmmmReally surprised at that 212 Philly/Utah line.
I create a light baseline then adjust by aggressively applying variables from game to game. For in-game I try and focus on being contrarian to the most recent runs as the number is typically overadjusted in these spots. Perfect example was my in-game over on Mon night when the Nets/Pelicans second unit had a major drought in first part of the 2Q. These spots can be gold.Do you guys use any models or stats for game totals? I know in game betting is more effective but often times that impossible while chasing the boy around
With college hoops now in full swing, MAC football during week, along with NFL 3x week on top of traveling a ton I haven't been involved much with NBA over the past week or so......still follow hard just don't spend chunks of day on the wagering aspect of it. I'd love to get involved in some of the props out there and Covers tweets out a featured player who gives her props plays out on a nightly basis with reasoning if you want to check that out. She began the year something ridiculous like hitting 82% on 5-6 plays per night since leveling off some.After almost always coming up 1 thing short on prop bets, finally hit on trae young p,r,a over last night. Small victory but has rejuvenated me to want to lose again!
* They added some nice townhomes along one of those main streets toward the shore but yeah it's pretty much unchanged except 25 years older. Not exactly a pretty sight but it does give me nice flashbacks of playing Monopoly as a kid when I'm driving to Resorts from Borgata and back. Btw, great story on the trip with a good poker friend who is in his 30's. We are driving to Resorts on a Sat morning as I make the throwaway statement of how I feel like I'm playing Monopoly as we pass Kentucky Ave, North Carolina Ave, and prepare to turn down South Carolina Ave. He is truly amazed and fascinated once he puts this all together. He then hits me with this......."Wow! I wonder if they really named these streets after the game!" Yes, he was dead serious and Yes, it made me feel old.I haven't been to AC for 25yrs, it sounds like the place hasn't changed a bit. Back in the early '90s I used to travel to Boston (Lehman Brothers office) for work and the degenerate gamblers in the office took me to a dog track called Wonderland or Swifty??? now that place had a colorful, salty crowd.
Good recap HRB. Sounds like you've heavily immersed yourself into college hoops. Do you have some early season thoughts on any under the radar players, teams? Is this a good draft class coming up?
Syracuse has struggled out of the gates and this may be their first season in 50yrs where they finish sub .500. Not sure if Jimmy can turn it around with so many mid-level freshmen. How tough is the rest of the ACC?
I hope some of my Friar fans get to read this.* Without going into long rants about each team I will say that Michigan and Juwan Howard are super impressive and for real (even though they likely lose tonight at Louisville in a truly horrible scheduling spot). While discussing scheduling spots you will find many teams in trap games returning from long holiday tournament trips with some nondescript team coming to visit this week right around finals time. You have to put the work in to find these games but trust me they are there every year.
be prepared to get "Gentrified"Frustrating watching this Pelican team refusing to put away a Dallas squad that is just dying to get blown out of the building following the Lakers win on Sunday night. Such a perfect set up with the letdown on the road vs a bad team with all the public money (84%) on them. Getting 3 and some money line......this game is tied and really shouldn't even be close but these Pelicans are approaching this opportunity for a win like they have an allergy against winning.
Edit: Now took some more Birds at +6.5 live following a 10-0 Dallas run and a timeout.
I am not a gambler but it strikes me that taking a team that has lost five in a row and six of their last 10 games versus a team that has won two games in a row, seven of their last ten games and is actually better on the road thus far this season is just a bad trade.Frustrating watching this Pelican team refusing to put away a Dallas squad that is just dying to get blown out of the building following the Lakers win on Sunday night. Such a perfect set up with the letdown on the road vs a bad team with all the public money (84%) on them. Getting 3 and some money line......this game is tied and really shouldn't even be close but these Pelicans are approaching this opportunity for a win like they have an allergy against winning.
Edit: Now took some more Birds at +6.5 live following a 10-0 Dallas run and a timeout.
This is exactly what it is supposed to look like. NO was a classic contrarian play, a home dog with heavy public backing on the favorite. It didn't work tonight and we move on.I am not a gambler but it strikes me that taking a team that has lost five in a row and six of their last 10 games versus a team that has won two games in a row, seven of their last ten games and is actually better on the road thus far this season is just a bad trade.
I understand that you think the Mavs will have a letdown after their win in LA on Sunday but if you let down against this current Pelicans team, its pretty bad. They are a bunch of interesting parts but aren't a real basketball team yet.
I just don't trust Alvin at all, he seems to get the least out of the mostIt isn't Gentry. It's a make or miss league. Shotmakers are getting good shots and missing them. Redick and Jrue a combined 2-11 behind the arc with Lonzo having a dreadful 2-10 game from out there.
Meh, you'd drive yourself batty overanalyzing individual players/coaches in a long professional season. All that stuff is baked into the number. When I get a team with only 16% public money and a reverse line move indicating sharp money I'm drooling to get my money on this contrarian side. I don't worry much about the stuff after that which I can't control although when it's on the tv in front of me it can be frustrating when great spots don't work out. It's why I prefer watching games I don't have action on sometimes.I just don't trust Alvin at all, he seems to get the least out of the most
Very nice call on UVA.* KenPom is considered one of the better rating systems around but when I still can't trust any metric that has Virginia at #3 in the country when IMO they aren't Top-40 and may be closer to #100 (not even a hot take, I truly feel this way). They obv have an elite defensive system but run the same stuff offensively as last year minus their 3 best and legitimate offensive players......it's why they couldn't hit 50 points versus an ordinary Arizona State team and a less than ordinary University of Maine squad. Aside from having nobody to score the ball they have zero depth so a couple of injuries and they fall to the bottom of the ACC Literally jaw on ground when I see them at #3 which of course makes me question their data on others as well. I feel they will begin to be exposed tomorrow night @Purdue and vs UNC on Sunday with their real problem coming later in the year once a couple guys, who aren't as good as last years guys, eventually go down. We shall see. BTW, lots of stuff going on with Georgetown's program and Patrick Ewing this weekend. Keep an eye out for them to be a complete trainwreck if stuff falls apart.
Thx. I did well in the game. One of those games when I wish I was a maniac like I was 30 years ago lol.Very nice call on UVA.
Hopefully, you printed some of that in size tonight, you had a ton of conviction on that one.
College hoops seems to be your wheelhouse. I remember you having some smart bets in the tournament last year.
Unfortunately, I can't dance on Georgetown's trainwreck (after they beat OSU) since Cuse is off to its worst start in 50yrs.