Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
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Santa Monica
I like the Pacers -2 to the Bulls today

Indy is playing better with one big, Sabonis.

Like Nate over Boylen.

This is an early, somewhat important home game for the Pacers.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
I like the Pacers -2 to the Bulls today

Indy is playing better with one big, Sabonis.

Like Nate over Boylen.

This is an early, somewhat important home game for the Pacers.
damn Sabonis out today...

BIGs dropping like flies the first two weeks
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Early season tidbits:

* Best NBA teams ATS
Heat 5-0-1
Suns 6-0
Lakers 5-1
Wizards 4-1
Blazers 4-1
76ers 3-1-1

* Utah Jazz 7-0 to the Under so far, +21 ppg cover margin.

* Orlando Magic 5-0 to the Under so far, 18.2 ppg cover margin. They play 4 games this week.

* Rockets are 0-6 ATS this season with a -12.2 cover margin. 1-5 ATS in 1H

* Grizzlies 5-0 ATS in 1H (they play Rockets tonight)

* Pelicans and Mavericks both 5-1 to the Over with +9.8 spread margins
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
Early season tidbits:

* Best NBA teams ATS
Heat 5-0-1
Suns 6-0
Lakers 5-1
Wizards 4-1
Blazers 4-1
76ers 3-1-1

* Utah Jazz 7-0 to the Under so far, +21 ppg cover margin.

* Orlando Magic 5-0 to the Under so far, 18.2 ppg cover margin. They play 4 games this week.

* Rockets are 0-6 ATS this season with a -12.2 cover margin. 1-5 ATS in 1H

* Grizzlies 5-0 ATS in 1H (they play Rockets tonight)

* Pelicans and Mavericks both 5-1 to the Over with +9.8 spread margins
you're involved 90 degrees

I like Brooklyn -3.5 over the Pels in 10 mins
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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It's so painful to root for him.

Ingram is really impressive offensively, I've never really been a fan but he has a ton of confidence with his shot.
I was a big fan of Ingram coming out of Duke but his game hasn’t grown as I had expected. You can’t rush maturity.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
It's so painful to root for him.

Ingram is really impressive offensively, I've never really been a fan but he has a ton of confidence with his shot.
I like a lot of these Pelican players. BUT Gentry always seems to take the sum of pieces and make them underperform
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
I was a big fan of Ingram coming out of Duke but his game hasn’t grown as I had expected. You can’t rush maturity.
The Durant comps, playing in LA w/ Bron and the kid seems painfully shy...probably not the right situation for Ingram.

NOP will let him flourish with Zion getting all the press
 

HomeRunBaker

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you're involved 90 degrees

I like Brooklyn -3.5 over the Pels in 10 mins
I took the in-game Over 224.5 mid-2Q after a huge scoring drought. Was ready to click once the scoring picked up at 228.5 but didn’t want to get greedy. I think I missed some value here.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Played me some Phoenix tonight too. I have them -5 here and getting it at a Pick
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
Played me some Phoenix tonight too. I have them -5 here and getting it at a Pick
Good job, ballsy bet. Philly is solid.

Ride Baynes, he'll pay off ;)

plus 19 tonight

Bet he set some absolutely beastly screens for Booker tonight...Stan Van Gundy, on NBAtv, claimed Baynes is, hands down, the best screener in the NBA. I love that sh!t. It must be fun for Booker to play with a guy that wipes out his defender
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Good job, ballsy bet. Philly is solid.

Ride Baynes, he'll pay off ;)

plus 19 tonight

Bet he set some absolutely beastly screens for Booker tonight...Stu Van Gundy, on NBAtv, claimed Baynes is, hands down, the best screener in the NBA. I love that sh!t. It must be fun for Booker to play with a guy that wipes out his defender
Rubio and Baynes have been culture changers for the Suns while Oubre continues to be severely underrated as an upgrade. The Suns won't be undervalued for much longer so taking advantage while we can. Philly is solid but coming off a road win on a trip is typically a good fade spot.....combine that will the still undervalued Suns I had to just trust the spot. I typically look for spots to play ON teams at the beginning of their road trip and then fade once they get a win and/or later in the trip especially if B2B is in play (or coming off B2B in the following game).
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
Rubio and Baynes have been culture changers for the Suns while Oubre continues to be severely underrated as an upgrade. The Suns won't be undervalued for much longer so taking advantage while we can. Philly is solid but coming off a road win on a trip is typically a good fade spot.....combine that will the still undervalued Suns I had to just trust the spot. I typically look for spots to play ON teams at the beginning of their road trip and then fade once they get a win and/or later in the trip especially if B2B is in play (or coming off B2B in the following game).
not a bad strategy.

Oubre has looked energized from day 1 with the Suns.

Monty was the right guy for that organization.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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With so much college hoops yesterday I didn’t have time to even take a second look at the NBA. Getting early start today though.

U212 Philly/Utah. I have this at 204 so got in early as I expect this number to drop. Jazz haven’t played a game above 210 yet and their poor offensive efficiency doesn’t figure to get a bump playing against the Sixers defense. I see a plodding 104-100 Utah win here.

Considering Over in Memphis/Minn, Under Milw/Clips, Sacramento, and waiting for numbers to come out on Houston/GState.

Also interested to see how Dall/Orl total plays out with a big under team visiting a big over team.
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
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Kiev, Ukraine
With so much college hoops yesterday I didn’t have time to even take a second look at the NBA. Getting early start today though.

U212 Philly/Utah. I have this at 204 so got in early as I expect this number to drop. Jazz haven’t played a game above 210 yet and their poor offensive efficiency doesn’t figure to get a bump playing against the Sixers defense. I see a plodding 104-100 Utah win here.

Considering Over in Memphis/Minn, Under Milw/Clips, Sacramento, and waiting for numbers to come out on Houston/GState.

Also interested to see how Dall/Orl total plays out with a big under team visiting a big over team.
Really surprised at that 212 Philly/Utah line.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Really surprised at that 212 Philly/Utah line.
Still holding steady at 211/211.5 too. Utah's avg final score is 195.6. Hmmmm

Late morning is when you see a lot of the sharp money moving these numbers. Pacers moved big to the Over and Pistons big to the Under. I'd have to see if the Pistons/Knicks was moved by money or adjusted to injury/loadmgmt but it's too late to play anyway.

This Hou/GS game intrigues me. -15 hung with a 233 Total. The Rockets come home for 1 game following an uninspiring 4-game road trip then immediatley hit the road again for 3 more away. It's a great flat spot for home team to take the 15 but then it's a national tv game so Harden And Co. will surely be wanting to put on a show......a show for them typically means a ton of points and not a whole lot of defense. I do like the Over here and leaning that way. This game is the PERFECT in-game opportunity to see how these angles begin to play out.......or if they play out at all.
 
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ElUno20

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Jul 19, 2005
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Do you guys use any models or stats for game totals? I know in game betting is more effective but often times that impossible while chasing the boy around.

Ive been half assing with efficiency ratings, pace, etc. Need insight from the sosh sharps
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Do you guys use any models or stats for game totals? I know in game betting is more effective but often times that impossible while chasing the boy around
I create a light baseline then adjust by aggressively applying variables from game to game. For in-game I try and focus on being contrarian to the most recent runs as the number is typically overadjusted in these spots. Perfect example was my in-game over on Mon night when the Nets/Pelicans second unit had a major drought in first part of the 2Q. These spots can be gold.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm fairly certain that without making adjustments to my in-game processes I will be ready to be committed by Christmas if not sooner. Went 2-0 preflop NBA (Under Utah and Sacramento) and split my 4 NBA in-game plays while leaving money on the table with the high scoring Memphis game and not unloading on Clippers for the 2H. Decided against Over Memphis pre for reasons I'm currently trying to evaluate, at this point my evaluation is I'm an idiot, this decision. The crazy part were the college games that threw everything for a loop especially the Cincinnati/Ohio State Total (lost pre, won in-game, lost great middle opp by half point) while monitoring Utah to apex at a high to come back with more in-game Under......it peaked early 2H at 223.5, quickly returned to 217 range and I never pulled the trigger.

So despite having a good night, between missing better number in Cincy, never finding spot in Memphis Over, never pulling trigger on more Utah Under, and a bunch of other stuff it left me feeling like this just after midnight last night...…..

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjUQMs0kVEI
 

shawnrbu

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Jul 14, 2005
27,586
The Land of Fist Pumps
Cavs/Wizards O230 (most confident of the night)

Warriors/Wolves O230

Bucks/Jazz U217.5 (Basically every Jazz under until further notice)

Nuggets -5.5 (End of a WC road trip for the Sixers)

Do the Pistons and Pacers play each other every other night?
 

ElUno20

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Jul 19, 2005
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After almost always coming up 1 thing short on prop bets, finally hit on trae young p,r,a over last night. Small victory but has rejuvenated me to want to lose again!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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After almost always coming up 1 thing short on prop bets, finally hit on trae young p,r,a over last night. Small victory but has rejuvenated me to want to lose again!
With college hoops now in full swing, MAC football during week, along with NFL 3x week on top of traveling a ton I haven't been involved much with NBA over the past week or so......still follow hard just don't spend chunks of day on the wagering aspect of it. I'd love to get involved in some of the props out there and Covers tweets out a featured player who gives her props plays out on a nightly basis with reasoning if you want to check that out. She began the year something ridiculous like hitting 82% on 5-6 plays per night since leveling off some.
 

ElUno20

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Jul 19, 2005
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My brother put me onto her. She has been great.

I'm fascinated with the bums. Those low reb, ast totals. i spend way too much time trying find who's going to put up 5 boards and 3 assist
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Bump.

Over the past 23 nights I've spent 4 nights in Atlantic City, 6 nights in Vegas, and 4 more in Atlantic City. Finally home for a little while and feel like an East Coast team returning after 8 games in 13 nights out West. The past two weeks have pretty much been college hoop tournaments from 11am to 1am. While college hoops and football have occupied most of my handicapping time I've managed to stay abreast of some NBA too. Let's get back to talking some NBA numbers!!! But first a wagering thread wouldn't be complete without some venue reviews........(in my best El Prez voice).

Sports Betting in AC is only a year in the books and we've checked out a few of the new sports books there. Isn't that right Frankie!?!?! We all have difference preferences so it's all about what you like Frankie. If you like a Vegas-style sports book with lots of open space and high ceilings it's Bally's or Ocean (formerly Revel). If you like more of a sports bar atmosphere your best bet is Borgata's Moneyline sports book which also has a great app and sandwich menu...….it's my early evening stop for dinner while finishing up watching the night games which is convenient since I stay at Borgata when I'm down by the Shore (I learned how to speak Jersey). For me though I've got my routine down! While the casino itself is old and a complete dump (and I'm being generous), the casino clientele you must pass from the parking garage are the lowest of the low lifes you'll see in AC and the amount of perfume spray shooting down from the ceilings makes me wonder what the place would smell like without all those chemicals...….. the new sports book at Resorts Casino is my freakin comfort zone! For Sundays games it opens at 10am, I get settled in by 10:30, walk back past the slot pullers to grab a Dunkies while doing my best to avoid the clouds of Marlboro smoke they leave in their path, and begin my day of tracking my partner bets, see what some of my Twitter follows have to say, and once the plays are deciding I search my sites to get the best number. Sure you have to put up with some sketchy characters at Resorts along with some likely homeless dudes who come to sleep in the beautiful oversized leather chairs (mgmt. and security are constantly waking people up and/or throwing them out) but I can get past that...….you've got plugs and USB chargers at each chair to charge laptop and phone in an intimate atmosphere with low ceilings that make you feeling like you're in your living room with the crew and a 15-foot Ultra-High Definition LED video wall (just get past the part about your crew including middle-aged homeless guys and drug dealers from Bed-Stuy) that can fit up to 16 games on the wall including up to 4 in (guestimate) 156 inch screens. Hal and his team do a great job of managing the riff-raf but to me that is part of the atmosphere I love at this place and the stuff you hear coming out of the mouths of these armchair "analysts" is always entertaining. EX: Two inner city guys in convo after Tebow is done doing his pregame thing. Guy 1: I don't know why he hung them up. Tebow had another 5-6 good years left in him. That guy could BALL! Guy 2: Yeah! And he's STILL got another 5-6 years left if he wanted to come back!

The wife came with me on one of these two recent trips......so far I've done 5 NFL weekends here this year (2 w her, 1 w her and my Dad, 1 w a buddy, and this past weekend solo). She brings her work tablet so she's productive while also getting to hang with me and root for the teams I tell her we need.....some say I'm a score, I simply shrug (this was sarcasm if your detector was off). She was also in Vegas with me which as I'm sure you either know or at least could imagine is a FAR different experience than that of AC. Some days I literally had to be forced to leave the bed at our Wynn suite with remote and big screen at the foot of the bed since the college hoops games began at 8:30am each day (west coast time remember).....which means I'm up at 6am to grab breakfast and return to the bed by 6:30 to prepare for the days games. We spent a couple afternoons at the middle of the Wynn Sports Books semi-circle bar facing the giant screens. We ate, sampled a variety of spirits, and shared the video poker screen in front of her for like 5 hours. The trick is to be friendly and introduce yourself to the bartender on Day 1, strike up some convo, and as long as you've got credits in the video poker machine they will comp the drinks (and there were many drinks).......taking care of them on Day 1 ensures you'll get it all comped the following days. You pay for the food that comes from next door but we ate/drank close to $250 each day (they charge a shit ton for the non-comped drinks) and came out of pocket for around $40-50 for food with another $20-30 for the bartender......and the wife ran really good playing Jacks Or Better too!! She nearly broke even on that endeavor which is way above expectation without hitting a Royal Flush. Probably the most fun day there was Sunday when the Pats/Cowboys game was going in what ended up being an enormous play on the Under for me when you include the 3 in-game Unders as well as the 2H Under (life is good when you can stay way ahead of the in-game algorithms). Pretty crazy but so nice watching ole Tommy Boy milk that 2H clock in bad weather with our defense shutting down anything the Cowboys tried to run.

So anyway, I'm back for those still reading. Back to the normal daily grind minus the insanity of Vegas and my guys from da hood in AC. Oh one more thing.....we did do a few other things in Vegas and one is certainly worth mentioning. If you ever have the chance to experience Le Rive - The Dream it is highly recommended. This trailer does it no justice. The most amazing and inspirational part is midway through the show we realized that one of the performers had his leg amputated just below the knee and if you didn't see his prosthetic leg you would never be able to tell by his athleticism and grace. Mind blown! http://www.hangerclinic.com/empowered-stories/Pages/AJ-Montgomery.aspx

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDILzg-IRP0
 
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benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
I haven't been to AC for 25yrs, it sounds like the place hasn't changed a bit. Back in the early '90s I used to travel to Boston (Lehman Brothers office) for work and the degenerate gamblers in the office took me to a dog track called Wonderland or Swifty??? now that place had a colorful, salty crowd.

Good recap HRB. Sounds like you've heavily immersed yourself into college hoops. Do you have some early season thoughts on any under the radar players, teams? Is this a good draft class coming up?

Syracuse has struggled out of the gates and this may be their first season in 50yrs where they finish sub .500. Not sure if Jimmy can turn it around with so many mid-level freshmen. How tough is the rest of the ACC?
 

TripleOT

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Jul 4, 2007
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I've been to AC a couple of times the past few years for poker tournaments at the Borgata. I never stepped foot in AC, except at the casino. I learned my lesson years ago that the place is a dump.

HRB, have you visited your home state sports book yet?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
18,754
I haven't been to AC for 25yrs, it sounds like the place hasn't changed a bit. Back in the early '90s I used to travel to Boston (Lehman Brothers office) for work and the degenerate gamblers in the office took me to a dog track called Wonderland or Swifty??? now that place had a colorful, salty crowd.

Good recap HRB. Sounds like you've heavily immersed yourself into college hoops. Do you have some early season thoughts on any under the radar players, teams? Is this a good draft class coming up?

Syracuse has struggled out of the gates and this may be their first season in 50yrs where they finish sub .500. Not sure if Jimmy can turn it around with so many mid-level freshmen. How tough is the rest of the ACC?
* They added some nice townhomes along one of those main streets toward the shore but yeah it's pretty much unchanged except 25 years older. Not exactly a pretty sight but it does give me nice flashbacks of playing Monopoly as a kid when I'm driving to Resorts from Borgata and back. Btw, great story on the trip with a good poker friend who is in his 30's. We are driving to Resorts on a Sat morning as I make the throwaway statement of how I feel like I'm playing Monopoly as we pass Kentucky Ave, North Carolina Ave, and prepare to turn down South Carolina Ave. He is truly amazed and fascinated once he puts this all together. He then hits me with this......."Wow! I wonder if they really named these streets after the game!" Yes, he was dead serious and Yes, it made me feel old.

* Wonderland was the name of the dog track in Revere. Swifty was the name of the lure that the dogs would chase. As they started up the lure prior to opening the starting box the announcer would say, "Here comes.......SWIF-TY!" so that is your recollection of the name "Swifty" and "colorful" would be a real vanilla description of the crowd that frequented race tracks but especially Wonderland. It brought out all the Boston degens, bookmakers, loan sharks, and other undesirables.

* KenPom is considered one of the better rating systems around but when I still can't trust any metric that has Virginia at #3 in the country when IMO they aren't Top-40 and may be closer to #100 (not even a hot take, I truly feel this way). They obv have an elite defensive system but run the same stuff offensively as last year minus their 3 best and legitimate offensive players......it's why they couldn't hit 50 points versus an ordinary Arizona State team and a less than ordinary University of Maine squad. Aside from having nobody to score the ball they have zero depth so a couple of injuries and they fall to the bottom of the ACC Literally jaw on ground when I see them at #3 which of course makes me question their data on others as well. I feel they will begin to be exposed tomorrow night @Purdue and vs UNC on Sunday with their real problem coming later in the year once a couple guys, who aren't as good as last years guys, eventually go down. We shall see. BTW, lots of stuff going on with Georgetown's program and Patrick Ewing this weekend. Keep an eye out for them to be a complete trainwreck if stuff falls apart.

* I learned many moons ago from a good friend from Vegas who was widely known as THE best college basketball handicapper anyone had seen back in the 90's/00's that while the punters handicap college basketball based on the teams players the sharp guys weigh coaching/coaching changes and their system more than the individual players. The value is in the change/turnover which is why his best months were always December and January (prior to all the November tournaments of recent years). He's not a computer guy but an old school pen and paper handicapper who is having two of his best years ever since the new transfer rules have been in place which gives him an enormous advantage in identifying the undervalued teams along with those who are overvalued due to being stagnant which is a killer in college hoops. I speak to this person semi-frequently.....he has a heart of gold (which is what gets him in trouble) but is a legit and self-admitted mentally ill lunatic. He handicaps for a couple big names in Jersey and I was told that he was up 45 units in college hoops up to a week ago with something like a 60-15 clip. Last I heard they were scrambling to find guys to take their action once word spread where the games were coming from.

* Without going into long rants about each team I will say that Michigan and Juwan Howard are super impressive and for real (even though they likely lose tonight at Louisville in a truly horrible scheduling spot). While discussing scheduling spots you will find many teams in trap games returning from long holiday tournament trips with some nondescript team coming to visit this week right around finals time. You have to put the work in to find these games but trust me they are there every year.

* My preseason "Watch" list of teams who can rise to reach the Final Four if things fall right include Oregon and Florida among the bigger names with Oklahoma State and San Diego State as my Major League Sleepers. The Aztecs are my secret sleeper team who struck it HUGE with the transfer protocol so keep an eye on them late nights this winter and in March. While I don't know if this team is capable of reaching a Final Four do NOT be surprised to include Liberty on your Sweet 16 line come this March. They have 7 players avg between 7.8 and 11.3 PPG so if you are a big time school you may find them very difficult to prepare for so watch out for them in the tourney. Two SEC teams are shelling out cash in pay games to host them this month.....I expect the Flames to win in Vanderbilt (they really should be a road fav) and then on Dec 29 play a Sunday afternoon game @LSU which will be a great bellweather game in which they will also win if LSU takes them lightly.

* Syracuse is really lacking in talent but Boeheim knows how to get the best out of his players. They seem to be the type of team who can outcoach the bottom feeders with their defense and system while not having enough horses to beat the better teams. For that reason I expect them to struggle in the ridiculously deep ACC. I'm not as high on Duke or even UNC as some and feel that they aren't "That" far ahead of the Florida States, Va Techs, Louisville (they may not even be ahead of Louisville), and NC States. Even Miami jumped out to a 25-pt lead at Illinois last night so don't sleep on them either. Overall, that conference is pretty beastly on a night-to-night basis. Another reason why I feel Virginia is going to struggle to make the tournament come March.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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* Without going into long rants about each team I will say that Michigan and Juwan Howard are super impressive and for real (even though they likely lose tonight at Louisville in a truly horrible scheduling spot). While discussing scheduling spots you will find many teams in trap games returning from long holiday tournament trips with some nondescript team coming to visit this week right around finals time. You have to put the work in to find these games but trust me they are there every year.
I hope some of my Friar fans get to read this.

Since I'm home mentally recovering today while delaying the start of shoveling I'll share this story. I met my friend Alan in Vegas at the old Stardust sports book in the mid-80's when I had just turned 21. Me and my buddies were on our first Vegas trip and were wearing Providence or Boston gear which prompted Alan to approach me and ask where we were from. He is originally from Maine so he embraced the New England connection. We hung out and I can honestly say I learned more about college hoops handicapping in that one weekend than I had ever learned from anyone in my life. Each year we'd go to Vegas we'd get up with Alan at the Stardust. When I left the dog racing/sports betting game in the mid-90's to return to school and live a normal life I lost touch with so many characters from this previous life. In 2012, when I left my job in NC to return home to spend time with family that ultimately led to me playing poker full time I would occasionally run into these blast from the past guys. This meeting one fall afternoon 4-5 years ago was unique however. I had not seen Alan since I'm guessing 1993.....it was now 2014 (or 2015) when I felt someone over my shoulder at Foxwoods when I was in a game. As I began turning my head to see who this was I heard a voice saying "Good fold" and while I could tell this was someone I knew 20-30 years ago I couldn't immediately place the face. Then he said, ''Did you ever play poker at The Stardust?" That's when it hit me who this was as I jumped up and gave him a big hug! I had read many stories about him over the years, I had even bought his book, but how the hell did he ever recognize a 150 lb, 20-25 year old kid who he'd see in Vegas once a year a few times as a nearly 200 lb, 50-year old guy player poker in a room filled with 500 other poker players on the other side of the country? That's how nuts and truly special a human this man is.

Anyway, damn I'm in a rambling mood today look out, when we were in Vegas over Thanksgiving weekend one year with a couple of buddies (none of our families were happy with this) and I remember this like it was yesterday. We are watching our PC Friars in Rick Pitino's second year whip American University the day after Thanksgiving by 30 points as all 4 of us were holding tickets (i think we were laying 10 or 11) that comprised about 80% of our Vegas bankrolls for the weekend at the time. Alan was also on Providence and told me how this Rick Pitino guy was going to revolutionize the game of basketball by playing a trapping press for 40 minutes with a focus on deflections leading to turnovers and ultimately either a 3-point shot or a layup while eliminating the mid-range shot from the game. This was November, 1986 and Pitino later that year led the overachieving Friars to the Final Four. Alan was on this Coach from Day One.....he was THAT sharp.

So we all cash our tickets and get ready to go back to our rooms across the street at The Riviera to change and get ready to party all night. Before I leave Alan asks if I'm going to be at Stardust tomorrow. When i tell him yes he just says we'll talk then. We get up on Saturday, he asks when are we heading home I tell him Monday night on the redeye. All he says is "Good, save some money for Monday and be here by 2pm (5pm EST)," Me being me i press him on this which ended with him saying "If I were you I wouldn't make another bet until you see me at 2pm on Monday." I share this info with my buddies and naturally we didn't listen but still had a decent chunk between the 4 of us probably about 7k of which 3200 was mine.

We all head to Stardust around 1:30 with intrigue and assuming he had a game for us. By this time we are well aware of his reputation around Vegas so I trusted any info to be legit. We hang around for awhile but no Alan. Finally just after 2pm he arrives all out of breath with one of his guys looking like he ran all over Vegas saying that he ran back cuz he didn't want to leave us hanging (this is type of guy he is)......well, he did cuz that's how you got down on games back then along with the pager/beeper that some carried which at the time had to be hidden as they were not allowed inside the sports book and a nearby pay phone. He was done getting down on his Monday night games all over town but the info he had for us was tied to our hometown as one of his games was taking place at tiny Marvel Gym on the Brown University campus. He asks me who i like in the American U/Brown game. I almost laugh and say that I know half the guys on Brown, played summer league or pickup games with most of them and played in HS with their best player (Patrick Lynch). I told him how horrible of a team they were and lost all their best players from the previous year......yes we were all betting on American that day! He smiled at me, then he chuckled, then he made a snide comment while smiling and laughing. Finally he said, "Ok, now that you're done talking like a moron do you want to make some money?" Uh yeah, I'm all ears. "For a game like this the most most places will take is $500 so you've got about an hour and a half to run to as many places as you can." This is when I look up at the board with excitement and glee since American was a 6-point favorite earlier in the day and now they were only a 2-point favorite! I tell him how excited I am to fire my entire roll on American and only have to lay 2 now as opposed to 6 earlier. His next words I can still hear vividly over 30 years later......."You fuckin morons! You aren't betting American you are betting on BROWN! They are going to wipe American off the court by 20." He tries to end the convo but I won't let him. I want to know why. This is when he tells me (paraphrasing), "American (from DC) bused up to Providence on Thankgiving Night, for one of those 2-day Thanksgiving tournaments at the old Civic Center, arrived at their hotel at 2am, got blown out by PC then got their win on the trip the following day. Their job was done and they would head home.......but American scheduled a game for that Monday night at Brown. Ed Tapscott (their coach and later coach of Wizards) brought a bunch of inner city kids up to Provdence for a Sat and Sun night, what could possibly go wrong? Trust me Gary, this is a blowout. The last place these kids want to be tonight is playing basketball at Marvel Gym. You want to know why the number moved from 6 to 2? It's cuz I've been running to every casino on the strip getting down on them. I moved the number. By the time you get down it will probably be at a Pick." As i look up it's now at 1......I run to the window to bet 500. The teller calls a supervisor over, he stares me down and glances over in the direction of Alan and my friends (i hadnt told them the plan yet) and says he'll let me bet 200! I start screaming at the guy (LOL) about Vegas being a joke yada yada and grab the crew as we hit up other sports books who didn't see us with Alan to give off a red flag. I ended up getting down for 2600 total and my buddies probably another 3k or so as we bounced around from casino to casino while stopping at vacant payphones to take turns calling n Brown to our bookies back home as well. One hysterical side note was that we ran out of change to make the long distance calls so we began calling our guys collect!! It was one incredible rush running around Vegas like this at 22 year olds.

Oh and Brown took an early lead (i recall seeing 13-4 as first score we saw on the ticker), their Honorable Mention All-American got two quick fouls, headed to the bench, then picked up a quick 3rd in the 1H, and Brown comfortably won by double digits. We spent from 6pm-8pm running back around town cashing our tickets, running upstairs to pack and barely made our redeye flight home. That was a fun fun night.
 
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HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Frustrating watching this Pelican team refusing to put away a Dallas squad that is just dying to get blown out of the building following the Lakers win on Sunday night. Such a perfect set up with the letdown on the road vs a bad team with all the public money (84%) on them. Getting 3 and some money line......this game is tied and really shouldn't even be close but these Pelicans are approaching this opportunity for a win like they have an allergy against winning.

Edit: Now took some more Birds at +6.5 live following a 10-0 Dallas run and a timeout.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
Frustrating watching this Pelican team refusing to put away a Dallas squad that is just dying to get blown out of the building following the Lakers win on Sunday night. Such a perfect set up with the letdown on the road vs a bad team with all the public money (84%) on them. Getting 3 and some money line......this game is tied and really shouldn't even be close but these Pelicans are approaching this opportunity for a win like they have an allergy against winning.

Edit: Now took some more Birds at +6.5 live following a 10-0 Dallas run and a timeout.
be prepared to get "Gentrified"
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Lifetime Member
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Dec 24, 2002
33,511
Frustrating watching this Pelican team refusing to put away a Dallas squad that is just dying to get blown out of the building following the Lakers win on Sunday night. Such a perfect set up with the letdown on the road vs a bad team with all the public money (84%) on them. Getting 3 and some money line......this game is tied and really shouldn't even be close but these Pelicans are approaching this opportunity for a win like they have an allergy against winning.

Edit: Now took some more Birds at +6.5 live following a 10-0 Dallas run and a timeout.
I am not a gambler but it strikes me that taking a team that has lost five in a row and six of their last 10 games versus a team that has won two games in a row, seven of their last ten games and is actually better on the road thus far this season is just a bad trade.

I understand that you think the Mavs will have a letdown after their win in LA on Sunday but if you let down against this current Pelicans team, its pretty bad. They are a bunch of interesting parts but aren't a real basketball team yet.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
be prepared to get "Gentrified"
It isn't Gentry. It's a make or miss league. Shotmakers are getting good shots and missing them. Redick and Jrue a combined 2-11 behind the arc with Lonzo having a dreadful 2-10 game from out there.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
I am not a gambler but it strikes me that taking a team that has lost five in a row and six of their last 10 games versus a team that has won two games in a row, seven of their last ten games and is actually better on the road thus far this season is just a bad trade.

I understand that you think the Mavs will have a letdown after their win in LA on Sunday but if you let down against this current Pelicans team, its pretty bad. They are a bunch of interesting parts but aren't a real basketball team yet.
This is exactly what it is supposed to look like. NO was a classic contrarian play, a home dog with heavy public backing on the favorite. It didn't work tonight and we move on.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
It isn't Gentry. It's a make or miss league. Shotmakers are getting good shots and missing them. Redick and Jrue a combined 2-11 behind the arc with Lonzo having a dreadful 2-10 game from out there.
I just don't trust Alvin at all, he seems to get the least out of the most
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
I just don't trust Alvin at all, he seems to get the least out of the most
Meh, you'd drive yourself batty overanalyzing individual players/coaches in a long professional season. All that stuff is baked into the number. When I get a team with only 16% public money and a reverse line move indicating sharp money I'm drooling to get my money on this contrarian side. I don't worry much about the stuff after that which I can't control although when it's on the tv in front of me it can be frustrating when great spots don't work out. It's why I prefer watching games I don't have action on sometimes.

We are back to college and on to Incarnate Word looking to get me two covers in 48 hours. Go Cardinals!!
 
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ElUno20

Member
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Jul 19, 2005
3,986
The amount of times I've come up short on a player prop by 1 or 2 points, rebounds, or assists is enough to drive me to drink. I swear these guys are betting their own unders.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,700
Santa Monica
* KenPom is considered one of the better rating systems around but when I still can't trust any metric that has Virginia at #3 in the country when IMO they aren't Top-40 and may be closer to #100 (not even a hot take, I truly feel this way). They obv have an elite defensive system but run the same stuff offensively as last year minus their 3 best and legitimate offensive players......it's why they couldn't hit 50 points versus an ordinary Arizona State team and a less than ordinary University of Maine squad. Aside from having nobody to score the ball they have zero depth so a couple of injuries and they fall to the bottom of the ACC Literally jaw on ground when I see them at #3 which of course makes me question their data on others as well. I feel they will begin to be exposed tomorrow night @Purdue and vs UNC on Sunday with their real problem coming later in the year once a couple guys, who aren't as good as last years guys, eventually go down. We shall see. BTW, lots of stuff going on with Georgetown's program and Patrick Ewing this weekend. Keep an eye out for them to be a complete trainwreck if stuff falls apart.
Very nice call on UVA.

Hopefully, you printed some of that in size tonight, you had a ton of conviction on that one.

College hoops seems to be your wheelhouse. I remember you having some smart bets in the tournament last year.

Unfortunately, I can't dance on Georgetown's trainwreck (after they beat OSU) since Cuse is off to its worst start in 50yrs.
 
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HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Very nice call on UVA.

Hopefully, you printed some of that in size tonight, you had a ton of conviction on that one.

College hoops seems to be your wheelhouse. I remember you having some smart bets in the tournament last year.

Unfortunately, I can't dance on Georgetown's trainwreck (after they beat OSU) since Cuse is off to its worst start in 50yrs.
Thx. I did well in the game. One of those games when I wish I was a maniac like I was 30 years ago lol.

Gotta fade Virginia heavy and fast because the numbers will catch up quickly and they aren’t the type of team you want to be laying 7-8 points against when the game will be in the 40’s or 50’s.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
37,848
Caught a glitch in my favor tonight on William Hill. Sixers opened -6.5 @ Detroit and at tip-off the line almost immediately moved to Sixers +11.5 and +475 ML. Dumped my whole account onto the game (full disclosure it was only ~$50 up from a $10 sign-up bonus) for just about the easiest cash you’ll ever see. Unfortunately the majority was on the absurd can’t-miss spread but hey I’ll take it.

Gotta keep a closer eye on this book now at tip off.

Edit: I guess in retrospect it was a winner at the real spread anyway, but the ML was a nice bonus.
 
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