Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Very little discussion going on in Fistful with sports betting in general so bringing this here to maybe get some chatter going. It is critical in NBA (and NCAA) to find early numbers before the market makers pound them. Pre-season is here!!! Discuss.

I hate 1q and 1st half bets. It feels like everything has to go perfect for it to hit.

On that note, the giants 1st half team total at 3.5 tonight was a steal.
I had in-game U13 earlier in the week then max-played a late 2Q in-game at U21.5 following the fluke TD.

4-0 in 1P NHL Overs by laying big juice when game Total is 6.5 and laying juice. So far all 4 have been wins with a ton of time left in the 1Q. These worked extremely well last season too.

I got a ton of Celtics U216 and U215 this morning before the line moved down to 211.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
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Maine starting unit:
Waters, Green, Strus, Fall, Maten

HRB, have you cleaned out all the bookies in New England on the Red Claws win total over?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Maine starting unit:
Waters, Green, Strus, Fall, Maten

HRB, have you cleaned out all the bookies in New England on the Red Claws win total over?
I wish I lived closer to Maine to hit up some of these Tacko games. I’m trying to clean them out so I’m shut off by December lol.

I’ve got a couple NHL 1P Over potentials for tomorrow let’s see if any get there. I use game line of O6.5 -130 as my threshold. 6-1 so far. I have a middle opportunity tonight with Phoenix +7.5 that I got around noon today then when this number got bet down to 5 I took Denver -205 on money line.

Great day Saturday especially at night but had trouble holding onto leads in NFL yesterday. Had Lions Over 1/2 in 1Q at -153 tonight, it’s always nice when you complete 50 yard passes inside the red zone on the games first play.
 
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ElUno20

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Jul 19, 2005
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I half heartedly lost money on a few preseason games. Just such druck and last minute lineup changes/goals for the games, etc. to keep track of.

Looking forward to losing all the money i made off the juiced baseball this summer over the 9 month nba season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Carsen Edwards 9 three's turned my lovely Under 213.5 play (once word got out entire team was sitting out) into what looks to be an easy L...….and yes, it WAS a lovely play damnit!
 

ElUno20

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Carsen Edwards 9 three's turned my lovely Under 213.5 play (once word got out entire team was sitting out) into what looks to be an easy L...….and yes, it WAS a lovely play damnit!
Dude, preseason is dreck. Don't do this to yourself. Regular season is stressful enough
 

ElUno20

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HRB, spill your beans/wisdom. I'm a relative newb to nba betting but found a little footing last season focusing on that big 4 or whatever it's called: efg%, off reb rate, ft rate, and turnover rate (in addition to the obvious like injuries, rest, scheduling).

Do you have any fundamentals you lean on?

In the other sports, i tend to focus on team totals and/or point totals. Probably going to lean more into that this nba season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But he’s 5 inches shorter than JJ Reddick!!! How could this happen?!!!?! ;)
I know right? Crazy thing is despite all of this it took a Javonte Green mid-range jumper to put this total Over the number I got.

Dude, preseason is dreck. Don't do this to yourself. Regular season is stressful enough
I disagree. The line movements in the lesser volume games when compared to the bet% on these games give huge tells to the correct side. Pre-seasons, Canadian football, college basketball & football, WNBA.....you can easily see which side the sharp money is coming in on by late morning in the daily sports and by late Monday morning in NFL and college football. Good examples the past two nights in NBA were Philly last night and Miami Mon night......both beat the number by 15+ points. Another, ever though it lost, was last nights Under in the Celtics game. When it takes 8 three's in one quarter by Carsen Edwards to beat you by a point and a half you know you were on the correct side which is all you can ask for long term.

HRB, spill your beans/wisdom. I'm a relative newb to nba betting but found a little footing last season focusing on that big 4 or whatever it's called: efg%, off reb rate, ft rate, and turnover rate (in addition to the obvious like injuries, rest, scheduling).

Do you have any fundamentals you lean on?

In the other sports, i tend to focus on team totals and/or point totals. Probably going to lean more into that this nba season.
I'm no expert by any means I just try and pick up edges whenever I can while always looking to improve my process. I'm not looking at stats per se or scheduling as these numbers are already baked into the line. Oh and those silly trends you hear all the time are virtually worthless. I'm mostly looking for reverse line moves that occur the morning the line comes out......meaning public betting is leaning 65-70% or higher on one side while the number is moving in the opposite direction indicating sharp money is moving number vs public sentiment. (providing there are no key injury reports where the number is air moved, meaning that the line is moved without money forcing the book to move it). There are several sites or services that provide this information......I like the ease of sportsinsights.com. You can usually gain an edge by ignoring the name on the front of the jersey and focus more on how a particular team has been over- or under-achieving...…..teams like Atlanta and Brooklyn were undervalued during the course of the season due to the predisposed bias the public had on these teams entering the season. You'll have a couple teams like this at multiple points throughout the season who are both over- and under-valued at that particular time. You can sometimes find an edge with a new and/or young head coach as players tend to gravitate toward positive change or against negative change...….a new coach can increase a teams volatility since change does create higher volatility. Also, multiple personnel changes can increase volatility. Ok, I'm just rambling now but I love talking about this stuff and learning more about it from others who are successful in this game.

This may sound anti-analytic but really it isn't as I am also a firm believer that any no-nothing person can simply hang around their local bar or card game while fading (betting against) the consensus of these casual sports fans and do quite well. I have no data to support however I always listen to sports talk when at the poker table and/or bring up certain upcoming popular games to see who these players are betting or liking...…..I'm guessing they are on the wrong side (which is nearly always the strong public side) around 70% of the time. :) When groups of people are all confidently on the favorite and I like the dog it is always a happy time for me to make a good wager.

I also partner with a professional bettor so I can see his plays on my accounts and how the number is moving in relation to his play. I currently have 7 "outs" (local online books) who release their number at various times of the day/week. Those who put it out early get hit early and I can usually beat the closing line while others give me great value due to having a good live-wagering program where you can get some real soft numbers. I am working hard on my discipline level with live-betting as you can recognize how game flow and game planning does effect the total number of points scored in a contest...….I find probably 4x the opportunities in Totals/Team Totals than I do in Sides when live betting for this reason.

I follow several sharp bettors on Twitter and utilize their information to formulate my own opinion...….some which falls into a reverse line move and some that don't. When it does the strength of the play seems to vastly increase. I listen to VSIN on satellite 204 when I am driving or the app when I am not to take in as much info as possible while recognizing much of it is noise but worthy of picking up valuable pieces of info along the way by deciphering it. The morning guys talk a lot about NHL props which I began profiting from last year and these props are so fluid. Last year the hot plays were the 1P Overs while this season some books offer pre-game wagering on each individual period so now the 2P Overs are the hot plays for some teams. Anyway, I think I rambled enough for one morning.
 
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lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
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I know right? Crazy thing is despite all of this it took a Javonte Green mid-range jumper to put this total Over the number I got.


I disagree. The line movements in the lesser volume games when compared to the bet% on these games give huge tells to the correct side. Pre-seasons, Canadian football, college basketball & football, WNBA.....you can easily see which side the sharp money is coming in on by late morning in the daily sports and by late Monday morning in NFL and college football. Good examples the past two nights in NBA were Philly last night and Miami Mon night......both beat the number by 15+ points. Another, ever though it lost, was last nights Under in the Celtics game. When it takes 8 three's in one quarter by Carsen Edwards to beat you by a point and a half you know you were on the correct side which is all you can ask for long term.



I'm no expert by any means I just try and pick up edges whenever I can while always looking to improve my process. I'm not looking at stats per se or scheduling as these numbers are already baked into the line. Oh and those silly trends you hear all the time are virtually worthless. I'm mostly looking for reverse line moves that occur the morning the line comes out......meaning public betting is leaning 65-70% or higher on one side while the number is moving in the opposite direction indicating sharp money is moving number vs public sentiment. There are several sites or services that provide this information......I like the ease of sportsinsights.com. You can usually gain an edge for ignoring the name on the front of the jersey and focus more on how a particular team has been over- or under-achieving...…..teams like Atlanta and Brooklyn were undervalued during the course of the season due to the predisposed bias the public had on these teams entering the season. You'll have a couple teams like this at multiple points throughout the season who are both over- and under-valued at that particular time. You can sometimes find an edge with a new and/or young head coach as players tend to gravitate toward positive change or against negative change...….a new coach can increase a teams volatility since change does create higher volatility. Also, multiple personnel changes can increase volatility. Ok, I'm just rambling now but I love talking about this stuff and learning more about it from others who are successful in this game.

This may sound anti-analytic but really it isn't as I am also a firm believer that any no-nothing person can simply hang around their local bar or card game while fading (betting against) the consensus of these casual sports fans and do quite well. I have no data to support however I always listen to sports talk when at the poker table and/or bring up certain upcoming popular games to see who these players are betting or liking...…..I'm guessing they are on the wrong side (which is nearly always the strong public side) around 70% of the time. :)

I also partner with a professional bettor so I can see his plays on my accounts and how the number is moving in relation to his play. I currently have 7 "outs" (local online books) who release their number at various times of the day/week. Those who put it out early get hit early and I can usually beat the closing line while others give me great value due to having a good live-wagering program where you can get some real soft numbers. I am working hard on my discipline level with live-betting as you can recognize how game flow and game planning does effect the total number of points scored in a contest...….I find probably 4x the opportunities in Totals/Team Totals than I do in Sides when live betting for this reason.

I follow several sharp bettors on Twitter and utilize their information to formulate my own opinion...….some which falls into a reverse line move and some which doesn't. When it does the strength of the play seems to vastly increase. I listen to VSIN on satellite 204 when I am driving or the app when I am not to take in as much info as possible while recognizing much of it is noise but worthy of picking up valuable pieces of info along the way by deciphering it. The morning guys talk a lot about NHL props which I began profiting from last year and these props are so fluid. Last year the hot plays were the 1P Overs while this season some books offer pre-game wagering on each individual period so now the 2P Overs are the hot plays for some teams. Anyway, I think I rambled enough for one morning.
Thanks man, that was a fun read.
 

ElUno20

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Jul 19, 2005
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"I'm no expert "...300 page manifesto.. hahah

Love it. Great read, man. Thanks for the insight into your process. We have to keep this thread alive during the season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
18,202
"I'm no expert "...300 page manifesto.. hahah

Love it. Great read, man. Thanks for the insight into your process. We have to keep this thread alive during the season.
LOL! Well, ya know I have been accused of talking too much at times.

NBA last night finally seemed reminiscent of early last season where offenses were clicking and pace was high. May want to keep an eye on these Overs moving forward.

Meanwhile these NHL 1P totals are insane. Won the only game that met my qualifications which I’m kicking myself for being so strict on. Over 1P and Goal in first 10 min sweep the board in the 6 games.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Aug 12, 2009
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NBA last night finally seemed reminiscent of early last season where offenses were clicking and pace was high. May want to keep an eye on these Overs moving forward.
Kevin O’Connor on Simmon’s podcast was talking about the preseason 3-point attemp rates being super high, and how those rates have tended to carry forward into the regular season in the past. Something else that may favor the overs early in the season before the lines adjust.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Kevin O’Connor on Simmon’s podcast was talking about the preseason 3-point attemp rates being super high, and how those rates have tended to carry forward into the regular season in the past. Something else that may favor the overs early in the season before the lines adjust.
Good stuff. I haven’t dug into pre-season Pace numbers yet but my eyebrows have been raised the past two nights glancing at the play-by-plays by how many possessions resulted in a FGA, oftentimes a 3, within the first 10-seconds of a possession.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Warriors waive Alfonzo McKinnie and sign training camp sensation Marquese Chriss — giving them nine brand new players (out of 13, not counting Klay), and eight players under age 23.

Could be a rocky start to the season, especially with Looney and Cauley-Stein both still ailing (both expected back soon, but both will have effectively missed camp). Should be a good test for Kerr and his off-the-charts .785 career winning percentage (322-88).
Been gradually ramping up my Regular Season Win Total wagers along with some Head-to-Head Season Win Matchups. Maxed out Under 49.5 on one and played Under 48.5 on another on these Warriors.

Also today, Layed -210 wood on Denver's Win Total over Portland, took +265 on the Blazers missing the playoffs, Spurs +275 missing the playoffs (looking for a split here), maxed out Under Blazers 46.5 on two sites, and maxed Houston -250 to win Southwest division on two sites.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
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Been gradually ramping up my Regular Season Win Total wagers along with some Head-to-Head Season Win Matchups. Maxed out Under 49.5 on one and played Under 48.5 on another on these Warriors.

Also today, Layed -210 wood on Denver's Win Total over Portland, took +265 on the Blazers missing the playoffs, Spurs +275 missing the playoffs (looking for a split here), maxed out Under Blazers 46.5 on two sites, and maxed Houston -250 to win Southwest division on two sites.
Love all your bets, except Houston.

GS will run Steph into the ground.

Blazers will miss Harkless, Aminu, Turner, Curry, Kanter, Leonard, and Nurkic will need time to heel. Also, Whiteside blows. Their offseason was really perplexing.

Spurs just trying to keep their heads above water against the brutal West

Denver has tons of continuity and added Grant/Porter.

Houston is messy. Fertitta/NBA isn't happy with Morey. The front office made D'Antoni unload his staff, so I can't imagine Mike is thrilled. Just about every player was on the trade block this offseason besides Harden. Westbrook still can't shoot and Harden strolls back to halfcourt when an offensive play isn't called for him. Houston has implosion potential, that situation is binary.

Enjoy reading your bets and look forward to seeing your NCAA picks next March.

Good luck, hope you crush the books...
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Love all your bets, except Houston.

GS will run Steph into the ground.

Blazers will miss Harkless, Aminu, Turner, Curry, Kanter, Leonard, and Nurkic will need time to heel. Also, Whiteside blows. Their offseason was really perplexing.

Spurs just trying to keep their heads above water against the brutal West

Denver has tons of continuity and added Grant/Porter.

Houston is messy. Fertitta/NBA isn't happy with Morey. The front office made D'Antoni unload his staff, so I can't imagine Mike is thrilled. Just about every player was on the trade block this offseason besides Harden. Westbrook still can't shoot and Harden strolls back to halfcourt when an offensive play isn't called for him. Houston has implosion potential, that situation is binary.

Enjoy reading your bets and look forward to seeing your NCAA picks next March.

Good luck, hope you crush the books...
I really have to hold myself back from overexposing myself in fading the Blazers. I can't get enough of betting against them right now. My reasoning for Houston was that the Spurs are my second WC team to fade and the rest of that division is average at best. The Rockets have proven to be a consistently great regular season team as D'Antoni-led teams generally are. Barring a major Harden injury I see few scenarios that make -250 a bad price......and I'm generally more of a contrarian bettor. I'll see if i can post a list of my regular season props once the season begins and I can put them all together. I even have some pro-Celtics action in there this year!
 

ElUno20

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Probably just touching player props tomorrow. Leaning towards AD's point total, probably lebron's assist total or Lonzo's point total
 

HomeRunBaker

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The large majority of my plays these days in NFL are in-game live bets (last night, 2 pre-flop plays of Jets and Under with 7 live plays w NE and Under) but I'll be on Pelicans +7 and Lakers -2.5 tonight with the latter quickly moving with lots of Laker money. Under in the second game is also getting quite a bit of play.

I'm bullish on regular season Lakers and bearish on regular season Clippers this year so opening night on a neutral floor is a no-brainer play for me. This may not even be close. Raptors reading press clippings about last year, receiving rings, no Kawhi, Pascal first game of generational financial security, AND laying 7 points? Yeah, sign me up for some Pelican with the points and also money line. Looking for in-game spots for them as well if they arise.
 

benhogan

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The large majority of my plays these days in NFL are in-game live bets (last night, 2 pre-flop plays of Jets and Under with 7 live plays w NE and Under) but I'll be on Pelicans +7 and Lakers -2.5 tonight with the latter quickly moving with lots of Laker money. Under in the second game is also getting quite a bit of play.

I'm bullish on regular season Lakers and bearish on regular season Clippers
this year so opening night on a neutral floor is a no-brainer play for me. This may not even be close. Raptors reading press clippings about last year, receiving rings, no Kawhi, Pascal first game of generational financial security, AND laying 7 points? Yeah, sign me up for some Pelican with the points and also money line. Looking for in-game spots for them as well if they arise.
Clippers supporting cast (ex George/Kahwi) > Lakers supporting cast (ex Bron/AD).

With both teams probably heavily involved in load mgmt, I'm not seeing regular-season Lakers > Clippers.

I like the Lakers tonight (no George) also, but over a long season, I'm not sure I agree.

Also, like Docs track record and player buy-in more than a 1st-year coach.
 

ElUno20

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I feel the dumbass play of the day for me will be Trez +300 to get a double double. It's begging me to lose money
 

HomeRunBaker

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Clippers supporting cast (ex George/Kahwi) > Lakers supporting cast (ex Bron/AD).

With both teams probably heavily involved in load mgmt, I'm not seeing regular-season Lakers > Clippers.

I like the Lakers tonight (no George) also, but over a long season, I'm not sure I agree.

Also, like Docs track record and player buy-in more than a 1st-year coach.
They def have Doc going for them but this is a 180 degree culture change from last year and there are no guarantees on the health of George's shoulders following surgery on both and now a delayed return to action. Will he even return healthy? Possibly no George or limited George along with 60 games of Kawhi. The one thing the Clips have going for them is arguably the best coach around for this type of dysfunction. I also don't agree with a ton of load management for LeBron......I think he's going to be on a mission this season. I've got some Lakers to win division at (I think) +230. The Warriors could free fall with no Durant or Klay and the Clips are way overvalued in the regular season with the George health questions, I saw -140 for them to win their division. Even if I have both LA's as a coin flip I love the price I'm getting.
 

Tony C

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Yeah, I'm beginning to worry a bit about George's readiness and if he'll be in good form once he returns. The Clippers are being awfully vague about his return and, at a minimum, it'll seem he'll be back later than expected.

On the flip, George was amazing while injured last year, so maybe that's just a senseless worry.
 

ElUno20

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They def have Doc going for them but this is a 180 degree culture change from last year and there are no guarantees on the health of George's shoulders following surgery on both and now a delayed return to action. Will he even return healthy? Possibly no George or limited George along with 60 games of Kawhi. The one thing the Clips have going for them is arguably the best coach around for this type of dysfunction. I also don't agree with a ton of load management for LeBron......I think he's going to be on a mission this season. I've got some Lakers to win division at (I think) +230. The Warriors could free fall with no Durant or Klay and the Clips are way overvalued in the regular season with the George health questions, I saw -140 for them to win their division. Even if I have both LA's as a coin flip I love the price I'm getting.
I'm all in on you with the hesitancy on the clipps. But couldn't disagree more about the culture change being a factor. Maybe if they acquired a traditional star like Lebron but Kawhi is a perfect Clipper. He'll embrace and love the obscurity and disrespect you get n this city being a Clipper. There's a dismissiveness to how the organization is treated here that is perfect for someone that is antisocial and an introvert (also speaking from experience).

Also, their next 4 guys are all from the bottom to the top, chip on their shoulders guys (trez, lou, landry, bev). They've made careers grinding to prove people wrong.

My hesistancy stems from Kawhi not going full speed til about March.
 

Sam Ray Not

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For anyone interested in fading (or unfading) the Warriors: Kerr said today that Klay is likely to miss the whole season.

Could be a once-bitten-twice shy attempt to defuse any of the pressure on him that fell on KD in last year's playoffs, but it also could be true. ACLs can heal up in 8-10 months, but they heal up even better in 16-20. Zero reason to rush anything, even a little. And missing the playoffs altogether would have the side benefit of giving Steph, Dray, and co. two extra months of rest that they've missed each of the last five seasons.

In the "goddammit, sports suck!" department: with under three minutes left in Game 5 of last year's Finals in Toronto, the Raptors led the KD-less Warriors by six points, with the ball. Kawhi went up for his money mid-range shot, and at that point you have to think the Raptors' odds of closing it out in five games are on the order of 99%. Yet: Kawhi's shot missed, Klay and Steph did their ballsy playoff thing, and the Warriors pulled out the win — which forced the Game 6 in which Klay suffered the career-altering injury.

Sigh. Still think the Warriors are better than even money to make the playoffs, but I probably wouldn't touch them either way as a bettor. I'd guess they're a 90% shot if Steph is 100% healthy (say 75+ games), and a 10% shot if he misses half the season or more, and who wants to bet on that?
 

benhogan

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For anyone interested in fading (or unfading) the Warriors: Kerr said today that Klay is likely to miss the whole season.

Could be a once-bitten-twice shy attempt to defuse any of the pressure on him that fell on KD in last year's playoffs, but it also could be true. ACLs can heal up in 8-10 months, but they heal up even better in 16-20. Zero reason to rush anything, even a little. And missing the playoffs altogether would have the side benefit of giving Steph, Dray, and co. two extra months of rest that they've missed each of the last five seasons.

In the "goddammit, sports suck!" department: with under three minutes left in Game 5 of last year's Finals in Toronto, the Raptors led the KD-less Warriors by six points, with the ball. Kawhi went up for his money mid-range shot, and at that point you have to think the Raptors' odds of closing it out in five games are on the order of 99%. Yet: Kawhi's shot missed, Klay and Steph did their ballsy playoff thing, and the Warriors pulled out the win — which forced the Game 6 in which Klay suffered the career-altering injury.

Sigh. Still think the Warriors are better than even money to make the playoffs, but I probably wouldn't touch them either way as a bettor. I'd guess they're a 90% shot if Steph is 100% healthy (say 75+ games), and a 10% shot if he misses half the season or more, and who wants to bet on that?
Good thing Bob protected that 1st rounder he sent to the Nets.

Time to hand the keys to D.Lo, Poole, Paschall, Looney, WCS, Chriss. Drive their value up. Get the top pick. And deal them for your big fish to add to a refreshed Klay/Steph/Dray.

Bob should be receiving a call from Danny asking about Looney on Dec 15th
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ended up digging in with the Pelicans a good decent amount here. Got +7, +7.5 and even a little money line at +245.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ok here is the "long" list of my regular season NBA prop sides. Many are small, maybe around 33-50% of what I'd play on a regular wager, and others are larger. I''ll use an asterisk to indicate the larger/stronger sides. For simplicity sake I won't bother including the juice on each wager or even the number as it's too time consuming since I have Win Totals, Head to Head matchups, and division winning odds. For Ex, I have Win Totals on several teams at 3-4 different numbers so I'll just list the bear/bull side of the teams in play. If you're interested in any particular number just ask and I'll dig them up.

Overs
Denver
Orlando **
Oklahoma City
New Orleans
Boston *
LA Lakers
Houston

Unders
Portland ****
LA Clippers *
Golden State
Toronto *
Cleveland
San Antonio
Philadelphia
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
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Santa Monica
Ok here is the "long" list of my regular season NBA prop sides. Many are small, maybe around 33-50% of what I'd play on a regular wager, and others are larger. I''ll use an asterisk to indicate the larger/stronger sides. For simplicity sake I won't bother including the juice on each wager or even the number as it's too time consuming since I have Win Totals, Head to Head matchups, and division winning odds. For Ex, I have Win Totals on several teams at 3-4 different numbers so I'll just list the bear/bull side of the teams in play. If you're interested in any particular number just ask and I'll dig them up.

Overs
Denver
Orlando **
Oklahoma City
New Orleans
Boston *
LA Lakers
Houston

Unders
Portland ****
LA Clippers *
Golden State
Toronto *
Cleveland
San Antonio
Philadelphia
why Orlando? big/slow, not much shooting, sounds like an anti-HRB bet...

plus Fultz is lurking and demands his development minutes o_O
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
18,202
why Orlando? big/slow, not much shooting, sounds like an anti-HRB bet...

plus Fultz is lurking and demands his development minutes o_O
The Magic kept the same young core last year, made a coaching change, and went from 25 wins to 42 while winning a playoff game for the first time in 7 years. They return the same core with another year of growth expected from it's younger players Gordon (24), Isaac (22), and Bamba (21) while adding a veteran glue guy in Aminu and re-signing Ross and Vucevic.

This team defends and another summer for Isaac and Bamba to gain strength should only help along with Aminu. They also shoot the 3 well so not sure where the not much shooting comes from as every rotation player aside from Bamba is a 3-point threat.

I'm not expecting 50 wins but that isn't what I need as i have their win total over 41 and 41.5 while getting +150 on them to win the anemic Southeast Division that includes Charlotte, Washington, and Atlanta. I'm not sure what to make of the Heat replacing Richardson and Wade with Butler and Herro. I just see the Magic floor as very high to where I shouldn't need that much of a leap from them to cash my tickets.
 
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benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
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Santa Monica
The Magic kept the same young core last year, made a coaching change, and went from 25 wins to 42 while winning a playoff game for the first time in 7 years. They return the same core with another year of growth expected from it's younger players Gordon (24), Isaac (22), and Bamba (21) while adding a veteran glue guy in Aminu and re-signing Ross and Vucevic.

This team defends and another summer for Isaac and Bamba to gain strength should only help along with Aminu. They also shoot the 3 well so not sure where the not much shooting comes from as every rotation player aside from Bamba is a 3-point threat.

I'm not expecting 50 wins but that isn't what I need as i have their win total over 41 and 41.5 while getting +150 on them to win the anemic Southeast Division that includes Charlotte, Washington, and Atlanta. I'm not sure what to make of the Heat replacing Richardson and Wade with Butler and Herro. I just see the Magic floor as very high to where I shouldn't need that much of a leap from them to cash my tickets.
yea they're definitely an above .500 team. Another nice one for you

I assumed DJ/Ross were the only guys that were capable from 3.
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,693
What a wonderful way to kick off the 2019-20 NBA season with an 8-point OT loss.
I was dying for those idiots to lose in regulation.

Ughh had flashbacks of a pelicans game last year that cost me big because alvin gentry is a moron.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,202
Mentioned this in the Cs game thread but national broadcast said something to the effect that Brett Brown thinks Sixers are bigger and stronger than everyone so they will ideally be playing from the foul line down.

I.e., they are taking basketball back to the 1990s.

Will be interesting to see if they can be efficient enough to make the math work.
Stealing tbis from Sixers thread. Hoping the line adjustments don’t take place overnight. Could be great Under opportunities for a couple weeks anyway on game day mornings before sharps move it lower.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
17,389
Stealing tbis from Sixers thread. Hoping the line adjustments don’t take place overnight. Could be great Under opportunities for a couple weeks anyway on game day mornings before sharps move it lower.
Be careful because if the Sixers are shooting 30-40 FTs a game, it's going to goose point totals.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,202
330 lbs as of Feb 1st

Over -116
Under +102

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Nikola Jokic's weight
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,202
Be careful because if the Sixers are shooting 30-40 FTs a game, it's going to goose point totals.
Cashed on the Sixers Under on Monday night when the 2nd half pace stalled to a complete halt. Tonights number opened at 227 last night, bet down immediately to 225, got it early this morning once it became available to me at 224 and 223.5......it's now as low as 222. I'll be watching to see if there is a quick pace in the 1Q as this plus a tight game could give us a great edge on a 2H Under and/or some in-game opportunities to the low.

Others I'm looking at closely for tonight:

Orlando -9.5
Detroit +9
Oklahoma City +1.5
LA Clippers +6 (No Kawhi elevated this number, love the Ewing effect in these spots)
Phoenix +5
Under 220.5 OKC/Port
Over 223.5 Milw/Bos
Over 233.5 Hou/Wash (liked this last night at 230 but shot up before I could get it)

Non-NBA

Over 7.5 Nats/Stros
Over 3.5 TT Nats
Over 1.5 Nats 1st 5 (-145)
 
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HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,202
Hope you got this one.


Hope you skipped this one.
Played both. Did really well with 3 in-game Overs in the Rockets game. They couldn't bump the number up high enough early in the 2Q when it was apparent this game was going to be a layup line. Good night so far. Assuming the Suns win, getting the Clips home would cap off a very good night (got small money line on them too),
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
7,526
Santa Monica
Played both. Did really well with 3 in-game Overs in the Rockets game. They couldn't bump the number up high enough early in the 2Q when it was apparent this game was going to be a layup line. Good night so far. Assuming the Suns win, getting the Clips home would cap off a very good night (got small money line on them too),
where is GSW win total now, still in the mid 40s? have to short that
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,202
where is GSW win total now, still in the mid 40s? have to short that
I don't have any that have re-posted since the season began. This is a 30-win team as is and if Curry ever went down, oh boy...….a large part of this 30 win number is due to teams still coming after the front of the jersey. They aren't going to be coming into Oakland thinking it's an easy win......they are going to come into Oakland looking to rip their heads off by 40! I knew they would be bad this year I had no idea they would be THIS bad though. I should have had greater conviction. (this is where the 2nd half comeback begins in the NBA)

And Utah looks to end my night early with a 29-9 run to begin the 2nd half.
 
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benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
7,526
Santa Monica
I don't have any that have re-posted since the season began. This is a 30-win team as is and if Curry ever went down, oh boy...….a large part of this 30 win number is due to teams still coming after the front of the jersey. They aren't going to be coming into Oakland thinking it's an easy win......they are going to come into Oakland looking to rip their heads off by 40! I knew they would be bad this year I had no idea they would be THIS bad though. I should have had greater conviction. (this is where the 2nd half comeback begins in the NBA)

And Utah looks to end my night early with a 29-9 run to begin the 2nd half.
Baynes just landed on Curry's wrist...no chance Steph lasts the season
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,202
Baynes just landed on Curry's wrist...no chance Steph lasts the season
Pace slowing too......considering in-game Under. Need to decide quick.

edit: Pulled trigger at 230.5 normally I would NEVER play an Under in a blowout as the defensive intensity all but disappears but the explosiveness of this game seems to have expired and they could be playing the string out. Hope these 2nd unit guys are feeling same as the starters.
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,693
Pace slowing too......considering in-game Under. Need to decide quick.

edit: Pulled trigger at 230.5 normally I would NEVER play an Under in a blowout as the defensive intensity all but disappears but the explosiveness of this game seems to have expired and they could be playing the string out. Hope these 2nd unit guys are feeling same as the starters.
I think you're safe