Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Caught a glitch in my favor tonight on William Hill. Sixers opened -6.5 @ Detroit and at tip-off the line almost immediately moved to Sixers +11.5 and +475 ML. Dumped my whole account onto the game (full disclosure it was only ~$50 up from a $10 sign-up bonus) for just about the easiest cash you’ll ever see. Unfortunately the majority was on the absurd can’t-miss spread but hey I’ll take it.

Gotta keep a closer eye on this book now at tip off.

Edit: I guess in retrospect it was a winner at the real spread anyway, but the ML was a nice bonus.
Be careful with these obvious errors. They are allowed to rescind a wager and/or refuse to pay out on it when an obvious technical error occurs. It happened to a buddy of mine in NJ last week. There was also this.....

Wish I had more time to post in here but college basketball on top of NBA and football literally consumes my afternoon and evenings. My NBA stuff for tonight was something like this...….

Under Philly - L
Over Atlanta - W
Under Orlando - W
Over Memphis - W
Over Portland - L
Miami - L (Snyder calls TO with 4 sec to get Gobert a dunk at buzzer to lose by 3, laying 4 lol)
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Be careful with these obvious errors. They are allowed to rescind a wager and/or refuse to pay out on it when an obvious technical error occurs. It happened to a buddy of mine in NJ last week. There was also this.....

Wish I had more time to post in here but college basketball on top of NBA and football literally consumes my afternoon and evenings. My NBA stuff for tonight was something like this...….

Under Philly - L
Over Atlanta - W
Under Orlando - W
Over Memphis - W
Over Portland - L
Miami - L (Snyder calls TO with 4 sec to get Gobert a dunk at buzzer to lose by 3, laying 4 lol)
The update to that story is that they actually did end up paying out the full $82K.

I have an affinity for betting but a talent for losing so I do my best to only play with bonus money anyway. One way or another it eventually disappears.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Philly favored against Milwaukee on Christmas, I get that Philly is home, but aren’t the Bucks a better team by essentially any metric?
 

lovegtm

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Philly has actually played well vs good teams, and they’ve been good at home in general. From what I can tell, there isn’t a lot of value in these lines—Milwaukee’s performance so far this year is pretty priced in.

They also match up really well against Milwaukee’s offense, since Embiid can single cover Giannis no problem.

My dream scenario as a Celtics fan is for Philly and Milwaukee to meet in Round 2, and it’s looking quite possible so far.
 

tmracht

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Caught a glitch in my favor tonight on William Hill. Sixers opened -6.5 @ Detroit and at tip-off the line almost immediately moved to Sixers +11.5 and +475 ML. Dumped my whole account onto the game (full disclosure it was only ~$50 up from a $10 sign-up bonus) for just about the easiest cash you’ll ever see. Unfortunately the majority was on the absurd can’t-miss spread but hey I’ll take it.

Gotta keep a closer eye on this book now at tip off.

Edit: I guess in retrospect it was a winner at the real spread anyway, but the ML was a nice bonus.
Did they void today for invalid line?If not huge score
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Philly has actually played well vs good teams, and they’ve been good at home in general. From what I can tell, there isn’t a lot of value in these lines—Milwaukee’s performance so far this year is pretty priced in.

They also match up really well against Milwaukee’s offense, since Embiid can single cover Giannis no problem.

My dream scenario as a Celtics fan is for Philly and Milwaukee to meet in Round 2, and it’s looking quite possible so far.
Now I’m seeing Milwaukee -4. Should have pulled the trigger when it was Milwaukee +1. Not sure if the movement is driven by public money or sharpes for a big national game like this.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Philly has actually played well vs good teams, and they’ve been good at home in general. From what I can tell, there isn’t a lot of value in these lines—Milwaukee’s performance so far this year is pretty priced in.
Yeah, the easy money is long gone. You have to get that in the first month or even sooner. It’s a total grind from here on out.


Now I’m seeing Milwaukee -4. Should have pulled the trigger when it was Milwaukee +1. Not sure if the movement is driven by public money or sharpes for a big national game like this.
The sharp books opened at 2.5 and have remained there. I seen some NJ “square books” at 4 as they fluctuated much greater but. Who opened this at 1 the other way?
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Yeah, the easy money is long gone. You have to get that in the first month or even sooner. It’s a total grind from here on out.



The sharp books opened at 2.5 and have remained there. I seen some NJ “square books” at 4 as they fluctuated much greater but. Who opened this at 1 the other way?
DraftKings online app had it at Philly -0.5 (so basically a pick ‘em) and VegasInsider has the open at Philly -1, not sure which books they source that one.

Screenshot I got of the DraftKings app from this morning:27699
 

HomeRunBaker

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Interesting. I’ve heard you can get wacky lines with the NJ/Philly online shops. The only one on my watch list is Draft Kings and I see it all the time.
 

ElUno20

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Question for when DraftKings inevitably moves to all states and i can use them here in CA, do they have all the props, alternate spreads, etc for games as well?
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Question for when DraftKings inevitably moves to all states and i can use them here in CA, do they have all the props, alternate spreads, etc for games as well?
I think you should be able to download the app and check out what’s available, you just can’t actually place any bets unless it determines your location is in a state where it’s legal. They do have at least some props and alternate spreads and stuff. There are other apps as well, such as MGM’s Sportsbook app, I mainly use DraftKings when I’m in the right state because it was a slightly easier process of transferring money into an account, but the most efficient way to play is probably to have a handful off books available to see who has the best lines or props, etc.
Philly has actually played well vs good teams, and they’ve been good at home in general. From what I can tell, there isn’t a lot of value in these lines—Milwaukee’s performance so far this year is pretty priced in.

They also match up really well against Milwaukee’s offense, since Embiid can single cover Giannis no problem.
Draftkings has Philly +4 right now, or +155 if you think they can win outright. I grabbed a little of that moneyline.
 

lovegtm

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I think you should be able to download the app and check out what’s available, you just can’t actually place any bets unless it determines your location is in a state where it’s legal. They do have at least some props and alternate spreads and stuff. There are other apps as well, such as MGM’s Sportsbook app, I mainly use DraftKings when I’m in the right state because it was a slightly easier process of transferring money into an account, but the most efficient way to play is probably to have a handful off books available to see who has the best lines or props, etc.

Draftkings has Philly +4 right now, or +155 if you think they can win outright. I grabbed a little of that moneyline.
Good luck on the Philly game: I don’t feel confident that I’d have an edge either way. I want to see how the matchup looks; it’s an interesting one.
 

djbayko

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Be careful with these obvious errors. They are allowed to rescind a wager and/or refuse to pay out on it when an obvious technical error occurs. It happened to a buddy of mine in NJ last week. There was also this.....

Wish I had more time to post in here but college basketball on top of NBA and football literally consumes my afternoon and evenings. My NBA stuff for tonight was something like this...….

Under Philly - L
Over Atlanta - W
Under Orlando - W
Over Memphis - W
Over Portland - L
Miami - L (Snyder calls TO with 4 sec to get Gobert a dunk at buzzer to lose by 3, laying 4 lol)
Legal US sportsbooks are pretty good at honoring tickets that they book from what I understand. The $82k is always going to get a lot of scrutiny and that sounds like an obviously bad line based on the description in that article. I only deal with offshores, and they’re always going to void a bad line, if it is noticed.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Legal US sportsbooks are pretty good at honoring tickets that they book from what I understand. The $82k is always going to get a lot of scrutiny and that sounds like an obviously bad line based on the description in that article. I only deal with offshores, and they’re always going to void a bad line, if it is noticed.
My buddy has a "Live in-game" wager voided due to it being "past posted" as the number remained hung after the action had already restarted from a computer glitch. His argument of playing a "live" wager not being possible to be past posted didn't carry any weight in this case.
 

djbayko

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My buddy has a "Live in-game" wager voided due to it being "past posted" as the number remained hung after the action had already restarted from a computer glitch. His argument of playing a "live" wager not being possible to be past posted didn't carry any weight in this case.
Yeah I don’t habe any experience with this since I am in a state which hasn’t legalized betting yet. My inderstanding is that NJ/NV bookies are much more forgiving of such circumstances but I’m sure that’s not universal in all cases. I’d imagine especially so with live betting as it’s much easier for them to make egregious errors.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Liked Utah -5 hosting an iffy Portland team on the downslide. Utah cruised for about 40 minutes with the lead ranging comfortably from 12 to 20, until they totally pulled their foot off the gas. Blazers hit some shots, get it down to a one possession game, and all seemed lost as the final minute went back and forth with Utah leads from 2 to 5. Until Gobert blocks a shot, Bogs grabs the board and hits the freebies for a 6 pt lead with 3 seconds to go. Portland doesn’t get a final shot off and I cash by one point, all the while remembering why I don’t bet basketball.
 

benhogan

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Overs
Denver
Orlando **
Oklahoma City
New Orleans
Boston *
LA Lakers
Houston

Unders
Portland ****
LA Clippers *
Golden State
Toronto *
Cleveland
San Antonio
Philadelphia
You had the C's on the OVER.

Looks like New Orleans is the only clear loser and you never know if Zion reappears. BUT the rest look really good especially Portland, OKC, Celtics, Lakers, Cleve, Golden State, SA, Houston, Denver.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Siakam is back practicing and is eyeing a return sometime next week. These are great value spots fading the Raptors over the next several games (or more) upon his return. One, you have an team overachieving in perfect harmony now asked to change up their roles and two, the number is jacked up to support the general public’s thinking of, “Imagine how awesome they will be now with Siakam back!” These are usually as good of NBA spots as you’ll find.
 

ElUno20

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Siakam is back practicing and is eyeing a return sometime next week. These are great value spots fading the Raptors over the next several games (or more) upon his return. One, you have an team overachieving in perfect harmony now asked to change up their roles and two, the number is jacked up to support the general public’s thinking of, “Imagine how awesome they will be now with Siakam back!” These are usually as good of NBA spots as you’ll find.
Thank you, sir.

Tonight I'm leaning Pels (morris is doubtful) and Suns (no DJ and Gordon has been questionable for a week)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thank you, sir.

Tonight I'm leaning Pels (morris is doubtful) and Suns (no DJ and Gordon has been questionable for a week)
Cha-Ching on Pels!! Uh-oh on Suns.......hope you got a good number.

Took the wife to Encore buffet for dinner. I then wobbled home to watch Lakers/Mavs put up 72 in 1Q. Laying back in recliner with full stomach and drooling to fire the Halftime Under and waiting to begin some in-game Under plays......…...next thing I know I'm waking up in recliner at 1:30am to see I couldn't have helped sweeping any play I made. That was one expensive buffet.


It was really freakin good though.
 

ElUno20

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Cha-Ching on Pels!! Uh-oh on Suns.......hope you got a good number.

Took the wife to Encore buffet for dinner. I then wobbled home to watch Lakers/Mavs put up 72 in 1Q. Laying back in recliner with full stomach and drooling to fire the Halftime Under and waiting to begin some in-game Under plays......…...next thing I know I'm waking up in recliner at 1:30am to see I couldn't have helped sweeping any play I made. That was one expensive buffet.


It was really freakin good though.
I took the suns on the ML. Still had to sweat.

Philly going into Dallas today at +110. It's calling me
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got the Pels +10 for tonight.
Like the Celtics of a few years ago, these Pelicans are phenomenal on the 2nd leg of B2B's winning 5 out of the 7 games (and covering 6 of 7) in this spot which is pretty remarkable for a 14-25 team. I can't find a logical reason to play Boston at that number here so yes, I like your side as well.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Like the Celtics of a few years ago, these Pelicans are phenomenal on the 2nd leg of B2B's winning 5 out of the 7 games (and covering 6 of 7) in this spot which is pretty remarkable for a 14-25 team. I can't find a logical reason to play Boston at that number here so yes, I like your side as well.
Pelicans are short handed tonight, with Holiday doubtful, Redick and Favors out. I do see the logic in taking the points (I’m seeing +11) though, either they’re feisty/Celtics malaise continues and it’s a game, or Celtics empty the bench in the fourth if they’re up and opens the possibility of a backdoor cover.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Pelicans are short handed tonight, with Holiday doubtful, Redick and Favors out. I do see the logic in taking the points (I’m seeing +11) though, either they’re feisty/Celtics malaise continues and it’s a game, or Celtics empty the bench in the fourth if they’re up and opens the possibility of a backdoor cover.
Knew about Favors and Holiday but Redick is news. One of the Pelicans strengths is they go 10-11 deep so not as big an issue as it would be with other teams. I just grabbed 11.5 as I love these spots with one side letting down while the other sides players rising up for the opportunity. Not valuing a back door much here at this number. Usually i begin that thought at 13.5 and up similar to a cash I had with the Cavs vs Boston maybe a month ago.

Edit: Another spot is Lakers +8 playing without Davis, LeBron, and Danny Green tonight. If you're a daily fantasy player you can find some cheap value in what's left of that rotation too. Kuzma will have a chance to put up a ton of numbers...…I'd stack him with KCP or Rondo, whichever is your taste.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Apparent early that defense won't be in the card for the Pelicans tonight and they look to push pace the other way. Got in-game Under at 222.5 then more at 225.5. Go Offense!!

Edit: My binky Frank Jackson is one of those guys taking advantage of opportunity tonight. Keep up that offense! Oh and I took more over 229.5 and gonna look to come back for a middle on that if we get up to the mid-high 230's.

Edit2: That was quick. Up to 238.5 but pace isn't slowing at all in fact it's faster. Not buying back yet and may just ride this out.

Edit3: Port Cellar. Where married guys talk to themselves on a Saturday night.

Edit4: Just realized my typo in "Under" while obviously meaning "Over"...….literally logged onto 3 sites in a state of panic to be sure I didn't misclick. I didn't.....but I have in the past.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Siakam is back practicing and is eyeing a return sometime next week. These are great value spots fading the Raptors over the next several games (or more) upon his return. One, you have an team overachieving in perfect harmony now asked to change up their roles and two, the number is jacked up to support the general public’s thinking of, “Imagine how awesome they will be now with Siakam back!” These are usually as good of NBA spots as you’ll find.
Hope some of you guys were paying attention today and profited. Siakam returned today......the Raptors opened -2.5 then went to as high as -5.5 once Siakam was a go and they lost by 1 to the Spurs.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Stayed away like an idiot.

Grizz and Nets took care of biz though.
I was ready to pull trigger on Nets for similar angle with Kyrie returning to change up what has been a rough recent stretch for the Nets. Then Trae was announced out and the number went from 4 to 9.5 and I passed. Grrrrrr.
 

ElUno20

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Every Pelican is probably out today and Ingram just popped up as questionable with knee soreness
 

HomeRunBaker

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Every Pelican is probably out today and Ingram just popped up as questionable with knee soreness
I’d like to see the lineups they will be using. If they will be playing at a slower pace the Under could be a nice spot here.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know it's the "NBA" Betting thread but I discussed some college hoops earlier in the year and posted this in ACC thread over in College sports.....more relevant here though. Done really well fading Virginia thus far and now looking to get on the other side tonight.



Well the tide has finally turned. I’ve been waiting for these UVA lines to be adjusted (but glad they weren’t vs BC & Cuse) and tonight the overreaction has created a wonderful opportunity as the Cavaliers head down south to take on a talented yet inexperienced Leonard Hamilton coached Florida State team.

Not sure if I mentioned it on this board or another but I’ve been waiting for the overreaction when UVA hits the road. Defense travels in college ball much better than offense (pure effort vs shooting backgrounds, etc) so I expect better ATS performances from Virginia on the road as opposed to at home with such a flawed team. When FSU beat UVA last year they did so with a senior-laden team who was familiar with the UVA defense. This years Seminole squad is loaded with newcomers having their first experience against this defense and it should take some time for them to adjust which gives great value to UVA’s 1H money line of +175 (as well as +3.5 Pts).

Another big factor is receiving 6.5 points in a game that should be in the 50’s or 60’s. Love love love this spot for Virginia. Wa-Hoo!!!!
 

benhogan

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I know it's the "NBA" Betting thread but I discussed some college hoops earlier in the year and posted this in ACC thread over in College sports.....more relevant here though. Done really well fading Virginia thus far and now looking to get on the other side tonight.



Well the tide has finally turned. I’ve been waiting for these UVA lines to be adjusted (but glad they weren’t vs BC & Cuse) and tonight the overreaction has created a wonderful opportunity as the Cavaliers head down south to take on a talented yet inexperienced Leonard Hamilton coached Florida State team.

Not sure if I mentioned it on this board or another but I’ve been waiting for the overreaction when UVA hits the road. Defense travels in college ball much better than offense (pure effort vs shooting backgrounds, etc) so I expect better ATS performances from Virginia on the road as opposed to at home with such a flawed team. When FSU beat UVA last year they did so with a senior-laden team who was familiar with the UVA defense. This years Seminole squad is loaded with newcomers having their first experience against this defense and it should take some time for them to adjust which gives great value to UVA’s 1H money line of +175 (as well as +3.5 Pts).

Another big factor is receiving 6.5 points in a game that should be in the 50’s or 60’s. Love love love this spot for Virginia. Wa-Hoo!!!!
54-50 UVA covers

hope you stayed to that instead of the 1st half bet
 

HomeRunBaker

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54-50 UVA covers

hope you stayed to that instead of the 1st half bet
The game was my unload the barrel play of the night. I took a little bit 1H money line which was looking good up 4 with the ball late in the half but UVA's final 7 possessions consisted on 6 turnovers and a missed jumper.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Clippers @ Pels O 235.5. First matchup was 259, second matchup was 243.
Yup I maxed the Over and have carpel tunnel from clicking In-game Overs. Nobody on these teams were coming to the arena to defend at 3:30 on a Saturday. It's 80=72 at the half. I've got Overs at the following numbers...….

232.5 (last night)
235.5 (pre-flop)
236.5 (live at 6:00 of 1Q)
238.5
245.5
249.5
253.5
259.5

I kept waiting for a spot I'd want to buy back on and when my response to myself was "no way here" I kept clicking lol. It's 268.5 at the half and "may" buy back to middle the 259.5 depending on how I see the pace developing. This game was much needed after my 2H Team Total Under on West Virginia beat me up pretty good earlier.

Edit: Maybe premature but bought back Under 265.5 (+102) to middle the 259.5. No need to be greedy with so much pretty much locked up.
 
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benhogan

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Siakam is back practicing and is eyeing a return sometime next week. These are great value spots fading the Raptors over the next several games (or more) upon his return. One, you have an team overachieving in perfect harmony now asked to change up their roles and two, the number is jacked up to support the general public’s thinking of, “Imagine how awesome they will be now with Siakam back!” These are usually as good of NBA spots as you’ll find.
Barkley guaranteed Celtic victory based on this theory.

Imagine how good the Lakers will be with AD back today...not
 

HomeRunBaker

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Barkley guaranteed Celtic victory based on this theory.

Imagine how good the Lakers will be with AD back today...not
Yup, the change of the universe theory in full effect today too. Next up.....Victor Oladipo and the Pacers!!
 

HomeRunBaker

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How about Porzingis with the Mavs tonight?
Nice catch. Mavs have won 4 straight. Can you imagine how good they will be now that Porzingis is back? ;)

Edit: No George for LA tonight. Number went from Dall -1 to -2.5 this morning when it came out.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, I still like LAC. Put a little something on them.
Played the Over earlier today. Keeping an eye on Pace and defensive focus in this one......if it looks like things can get out of hand like many of the Clippers games have of late I could be clicking Live Overs until I have carpel tunnel.
 

HomeRunBaker

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1-19 to start the game. I have yet to see an uncontested shot. It is rare to basically lose your wager in the first 4 minutes of an NBA game but between pace and defense this looks like an early L.

Edit: Took some OVER 218.5. Let's see how bad it can get. I gotta think this 1Q will be the lowest scoring quarter possibly but a lot. This is an ugly game though.
 
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ElUno20

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1-19 to start the game. I have yet to see an uncontested shot. It is rare to basically lose your wager in the first 4 minutes of an NBA game but between pace and defense this looks like an early L.

Edit: Took some OVER 218.5. Let's see how bad it can get. I gotta think this 1Q will be the lowest scoring quarter possibly but a lot. This is an ugly game though.
Oof. 217. Condolences