Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Ended up playing some small Celtics -2 1Q and a good sized -3 (-115) for the purpose of hunting out a good middle with +8 or +9 with the Heat at some point. If the Celtics blow it out in the 2Q (a real possibility in this ideal spot) I’d look to ride out the win.

Not necessarily “trusting my gut” bc I do feel Miami would be in ideal position to close this out if it’s close in the 4Q......but in an elimination game I do expect the Celtics to be the early aggressor and have a double digit 1H lead at some point.

Edit: Pretty much the worst start possible lol. They just can’t do a thing offensively against this defense and can’t stop them consistently on the other end. I may have been right about the blowout.....ugh.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I have no idea how I got that 1H Over back. Thank you Derrick Jones. So thankful for bad numbers even though it was bumped to 108 from G4’s 106.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Covered half of my Celtics -3 with Miami +6.....not getting greedy to get a better number I’m just happy to get out of half of it with a small middle. I have no idea what’s going to happen next. Tough mental spot for Miami suddenly finding themselves down 8.

Edit: Huge scoring 3Q to put the Over in great shape. Stuck to gameplan and took the other half of my middle with Miami +7.5 booking a nice win on the totals while free rolling a bunch of key points. LFG!!!!
 
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HomeRunBaker

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After that 1Q, was not expecting the 1H Over to cash. Pace picked up big time and that’s a very comfortable full game cash on the Over.
It was a strange feeling to that 1H. The way the pace and offensive aggression of these 2H games have gone I felt I’d have a good chance if we could get it to 100 by half. Not to beat a dead horse but even my numbers may be off on these totals.....am I’m 6-8 pts above the number they keep hanging. We are having extended droughts in every game which would normally be deadly with such a slow pace......and we are still getting most of these Overs home. Me likey.

The sweat was a hard one in that 1H but nothing compared to my buddy who kept texting me not to cover my middle in the 2H. FWIW, my buddy is the biggest square bettor that exists who last collected from his book pre-Covid.....so that only made me more certain that sticking to my gameplan was correct. Lol.
 

HomeRunBaker

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What amazes me about the lines (and betting) in these games is that there are rarely any adjustments.....which greatly benefits the sharp player. Why would the Celtics number when down 2-0 and 3-1 be the same as any other game? Don’t even get me started on the total.

Anywho, G5 was not your typical elimination game desperation win. The Celtics were flat and Miami (who was also) did not take advantage of this nor did they fight back in the 4Q. Lots of football stuff today so will keep this short......

* Celtics -3.5
* Over 214

I really like both a lot however will shade much greater to the Total as it’s still laughably low. I will also play a correlates parlay with the two.

Edit: Dead horse alert! Total has been bet up to 216. So the house has liability to the over. Wow shocker here. The tracker I use show both public on the Over and sharps on the Over. Yeah but algorithms so. (Point isn’t on which side wins or loses but which side the money is coming on.)
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Kanter getting minutes has to improve the odds on any Over bet.
I in-gamed the Over when he checked in. It has skyrocketed since. 4 min to go and I’m two hoops from the 1H Over. Got off the Miami TT Over as I played Boston. They are pretty much unstoppable on the offensive end. Such a nice flow to how they create switches and open looks.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Who you guys got tonight?

Total - I expect plenty of points with the 217.5 about 7 points lower than where I have it. Seems like this “playoff under” narrative is still clouding judgment. *So it’s Over 1H and Over FT for me tonight pretty strong.

Side - Until I’m shown otherwise I stand by my position that the Lakers have tremendous matchup advantages at key position. Bam and Butler are not going to be facing Theis, Kanter, Jalen and Tatum at the rim......they will have Davis, LeBron and Howard/McGee challenging them. To me, this is the greatest adjustment that the Heat will face forcing them to rely more on the 3-point shooting of Herro, Duncan, and Dragic. The Heat need for old friends Crowder and Olynyk to contribute. For the Heat to win games they are going to need to get it done behind the 3-point line which as we know they are more than capable of doing. In any game they have multiple players who can carry them behind the arc as we saw firsthand. If the Heat can’t drain 3 after 3 this could be a short series as the Lakers do have high-post players who can exploit the zone unlike the Celtics.....and straight man would be a disaster for them against this team.

Sooooo, the contrasting styles will be fascinating to watch. I likely won’t play any side preflop in any game while looking for regression spots once someone opens up that 15-pt lead......especially if it’s the Lakers in front as the Heat keep coming at you when they are down.
 

Joe Sixpack

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Miami TT over 106.5, both teams 1H over 111.5.

Added a small amount on Miami ML +165 and double result Lakers/Miami +600.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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1H over just hits after a slow finish.

Just need FT over and for LBJ to finish off the triple-double for a nice night.
 

HomeRunBaker

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1H over just hits after a slow finish.

Just need FT over and for LBJ to finish off the triple-double for a nice night.
Very nice. Got a nice big spread so the 2H should play loose for the full time total. If not I’ll be ready for the patented Laker 4Q Under.

Staying away from regression play on Miami here as their matchup problems are evident. This could be a short series.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Gonna miss that LBJ bet by one assist after he “assisted” on about a dozen points worth of free throws.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Beating dead horse once again but it only took a 77-34 run that sent half of the Heat’s roster to the Orlando Regional Medical Center to adjust the line from 4.5 in G1 up nearly a full possession to Lakers -7 for G2.

I’ll eat a log of JR Smith’s shit if this line isn’t bet up to at least 8.5 (and likely higher).How is +7 going to receive any play here? I’m not talking about result as the Heat are going to keep foot on the gas for 48 no matter what....I’m only talking about the books liability.
 

BigSoxFan

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Beating dead horse once again but it only took a 77-34 run that sent half of the Heat’s roster to the Orlando Regional Medical Center to adjust the line from 4.5 in G1 up nearly a full possession to Lakers -7 for G2.

I’ll eat a log of JR Smith’s shit if this line isn’t bet up to at least 8.5 (and likely higher).How is +7 going to receive any play here? I’m not talking about result as the Heat are going to keep foot on the gas for 48 no matter what....I’m only talking about the books liability.
Ha. +8 on DK this morning. That may be generous too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So much to learn from one game as we see how these teams choose to attack each other. The Lakers are really looking to take the air out of the ball and wait for Miami to set their offense knowing that the Heat have no answer whatsoever for Davis and of course nobody has one for LeBron. On the other end of the floor Miami struggled adjusting to being unable to gain angles and draw fouls as the Laker bigs protect the rim slightly better than Theis, Jaylen and Tatum.

Despite the Lakers making 13–19 threes in the 1H we only beat the 1H total by 1.5 points. Even if healthy the Heat were finally going to have trouble scoring as they can pretty much eliminate free bees at the line and most shots at the rim. Losing Goran and having a less than 100% Bam (who struggled against Davis’s size even prior to injury) and Jimmy this is going to be a pretty big overall play for me here. I’ll play full game 2x the first half with the expected Laker 2H style continuing (yet not reflected in number). I’d play the Miami team totals for as much as I can especially the full game. Btw, game number already up to 9.5 lol.

* Under 217 full game
* Under 111 1H
* Under Miami TT 103.5
* Under Miami 1H TT (not posted yet, should be 53 or so)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thank god for 4Q in-game Laker Unders.....cuz my read on this total couldn’t have been any more off.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Usually when I go away from my numbers due to a variable(s) my read is spot on. It’s like making a big river call with A-high.....you know the math isn’t in your favor but there are other factors which make it a profitable call. Yeah, Friday night I should have trusted my numbers lol.

I’m expecting Bam to play which in this spot could hurt the Heat more than help them. All I keep reading is how Miami is in trouble now that Bam is hurt......Miami was down 87-55 WITH Bam. We also saw the Heat play more scrappy when short handed. Bam was ineffective against the Laker bigs in G1 and I don’t expect that to change in G3. If they look to force him the ball it will take away their free flowing offense that they showed in G2.

I’m almost tempted to come back with some Under stuff on the Heat (I really expect Bam to hurt more than help) but Miami doesn’t have any answers that scheme can fix......they simply don’t have the personnel and that zone doesn’t work with LeBron and Davis flashing in the high post. This is going to be a very short series.

* Lakers 1H ML -230 (2 unit)
* Lakers TT Over 113 (2 unit)
* Lakers -9.5 (1 Unit)
 

HomeRunBaker

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No Bam.....shifted gears toward the Overs, 1H 112 and Laker 1H TT 58.

Also went back to the score first well with Lakers -150, Green (+900) and KCP (+950).
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m really an idiot for not including Howard in my prop considering I’m been preaching here how LeBron always looks to get his complementary big involved in that first possession. Wow trying to set a record for bad calls in this series.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Playing off Bam news tonight. The Heat are clearly in a comfort zone playing freely since he’s gone out. Again, looking to fade Heat with Bam and of course the usual 2H and 4Q Golden Unders. If Bam is out I’ll play Lakers to score first and use role players for first scorer at big prices.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bam in the lineup. Let’s see how my read is on this. Less spacing, less pace. Will those penetrating lanes still be there or will Bam’s defender be in help position? Go Lakers
 

HomeRunBaker

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1Q Laker W
1Q Under W

Miami playing at snails pace w Bam and a stagnant offense. 23 1Q points has Heat on pace for one of their lowest scoring games in these playoffs. Added In-Game Under at 215.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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1H Lakers L
1H Under W

Spo is such a defensive genius locking down the Lakers with this personnel. Adding more Unnder 106.5 2H and will look to add more top of 4Q if number is >52.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got 54 and 54.5 for my 4Q total. I don’t understand but I will not complain. Win or lose getting so much the best of it here.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bam in the lineup. Let’s see how my read is on this. Less spacing, less pace. Will those penetrating lanes still be there or will Bam’s defender be in help position? Go Lakers
Advantage Variables! G5 was slowest pace in the series by a good margin and Lakers 4Q Unders continue to print money. Even with the Herro dagger at the buzzer this was a great night with in-game Unders being the catalyst.

Series has played to 2 overs in the games Bam was out (better spacing and faster pace) and to 2 Unders in the games he’s played. Since Bam didn’t appear to reinsure himself I’ll assume he’s a go in G5 and already played Under 216.5 when it was posted late last night. If the 1Q shows this will be another jog it up the court into a half court set game I’ll add more early then of course looking at 2H and especially 4Q Unders if Lakers are controlling play (Do I really even need to repeat this every Laker game lol?)

This Heat team is feisty and a pain. I don’t expect them to quit but you never know how a team will respond to a Laker run when they know elimination is coming. That said, this team has moxie so not touching anything preflop and if I had to I’d probably lean Miami +7.5 with LA exhaling after coming of their own must win game. Not a play for me however as I feel they are better equipped to have the Lakers on their heels without Bam and the paint wide open for penetrating lanes. How many times was Davis able to alter/block shots and passes at the rim last night?

So this is a pure Under night to begin and likely to stay that way in-game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Staying away from 4Q Under today with the Lakers chasing the lead. They play more aggressive offensively when trailing and they are a step behind Miami on the other end.
 

HomeRunBaker

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@HomeRunBaker anything good tonight?
Didn’t do anything pre since I wasn’t confident in Davis’ health. Hit a small in-game Under from 2H then got pummeled by the two meaningless 3’s at end of game when teams typically run the clock out. The numbers were so good here I couldn’t get enough of it......what a not so glorious end to the season.

See you guys in this thread on Christmas morning for the opener.