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Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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In the NBA, we are getting to the point in the year where the veteran playoff teams play loose for 2/3 of the game then clamp down on the garbage teams of the league in the last 1/3. Miami/Detroit was a classic example today. Some huge opportunities when those arise.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’ve got a solid Mini-Martingale for Mon/Tues NBA involving the Sacramento Kings.

Kings have won 11 of 13, including 3 in a row on this road trip, while taking care of business. The final game of the trip is Monday in Utah which will be there 4th game in 6 nights followed by the dreaded 5th game in 7 nights hosting the Celtics which is also the Kings game home which is one of the toughest NBA spots on the schedule.

My strategy is simple. Playing say 1 unit on Utah +6 on Monday, if lose I’ll play 2 units on Boston for Tuesday where I’d expect the Celtics to be -3 to -4.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Markkanen, Clarkson and Sexton all out for Utah tonight. I love, love, love this spot now as it leads to an even greater exhale by the Kings and opportunity for Jazz bench to get a larger role at home.

Added more Utah +6.5 and some ML +205. I also sprinkled Winning Margins with some pizza money, 14-16 (+2500), 17-20 (+2500), and 21+ (+1200)…..the latter a pizza w/extra toppings.

BOL has those at +2500, +2800 and +1600
 
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BigSoxFan

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Markkanen, Clarkson and Sexton all out for Utah tonight. I love, love, love this spot now as it leads to an even greater exhale by the Kings and opportunity for Jazz bench to get a larger role at home.

Added more Utah +6.5 and some ML +205. I also sprinkled Winning Margins with some pizza money, 14-16 (+2500), 17-20 (+2500), and 21+ (+1200)…..the latter a pizza w/extra toppings.

BOL has those at +2500, +2800 and +1600
Good start…
 

HomeRunBaker

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Good start…
It’s the NBA but the read was spot on with this being a super exhale spot for the Kings espeically with Utah shorthanded. 36 more minutes of this!

I know its difficult to grasp sometimes but 40-19 is only a 7-possession game. That isn’t a lot to overcome in 1Q much less 3Q.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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FYI, already began clicking Celtics -4.5 for tomorrow. I missed the 4’s. This number is only going to go one direction.

Kings win tonight they clinch playoff spot and could rest everyone tomorrow so real chance of an enormous middle should this occur.
 

BigSoxFan

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FYI, already began clicking Celtics -4.5 for tomorrow. I missed the 4’s. This number is only going to go one direction.

Kings win tonight they clinch playoff spot and could rest everyone tomorrow so real chance of an enormous middle should this occur.
Thoughts now that they lost? Jazz must have taken a lot out of them.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thoughts now that they lost? Jazz must have taken a lot out of them.
Yes the ideal thing would have been a Kings win but not cover however they are primed for regression anyway. They are a very good team but after an 11-2 run and a condensed schedule this is another pure fade spot. The fact that the Celtics are coming off a 1-pt loss is an added plus as they will have the urgency of another sustained effort similar to the game last week when I gave them out here. Kings could still rest players where 4.5 will balloon as high as 10.

These are the NBA sweet spot games!

Edited: To correct 5 autocorrects. FML
 
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Green (Tongued) Monster

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FYI, already began clicking Celtics -4.5 for tomorrow. I missed the 4’s. This number is only going to go one direction.

Kings win tonight they clinch playoff spot and could rest everyone tomorrow so real chance of an enormous middle should this occur.
This was an amazing call, with or without the C's action tonight (bet was placed last night!) Great job HRB!
 

Red Averages

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This Spurs team being fielded is a garbage fire. I have entirely too much on the under of this game across multiple books at adjusted lines varying from 232 to 210.

this game might end in the 180s but not sure I can take any more risk….
 

HomeRunBaker

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This Spurs team being fielded is a garbage fire. I have entirely too much on the under of this game across multiple books at adjusted lines varying from 232 to 210.

this game might end in the 180s but not sure I can take any more risk….
A buddy of mine, who is very sharp, had a big play on the Under in this game as well. He got it at 235.5 and 234.5 last night and this morning. Very nice
 

BigSoxFan

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Did a decent sized Celtics/Bruins ML combo today. HRB nailed another game with this Celtics take.
 

HomeRunBaker

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When there is a Rachaun Holmes sighting you know the game is over. The spots are playing out ideally right now.
 

RorschachsMask

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I hit on the Thunder upsetting the clippers as part of my SGP, and 7 of the 8 legs for the Celtics/Kings. Sabonis finishing with 16 instead of 18 cost me….a lot of money lol, him going 2-6 from the line was suboptimal.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played Utah -5 tonight.

The Blazers aren’t even pretending to put forth effort down the stretch and the talk in Portland is when they shut down Lillard. This is akin to a UFC fighters retirement fight which rarely ends well. Blazers have lost 4 straight and something like 12 of 13 (all I see are red L’s up the column and didn’t feel like counting). Utah, otoh, are playing as well as they did earlier in the year and creating matchup problems with their huge yet agile lineups. I have this number closer to 8-9. As I have been, will look to sprinkle some Winning Margin 17-20 and 21+ on Utah as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Came here two other times this morning but distracted by Jaylen Brown. I still like these numbers.

Played a couple NBA thingies tonight fading two teams returning from road trips. This is always one good box to check off but each game checks off multiple to me.

* Pacers +12 (now 11.5)
* Suns +4.5 (now 3.5), ML +154 (now 138)

Not too dissimilar than the recent Atlanta game after Celtics had a “full focus” win spot against Portland which was followed by the loss to the Rockets. C’s had that same full focus game versus the Kings and they will likely “play with their food” in at least one of these next two. Pacers without Tyrese gives C’s more reasons that they won’t sustain for 48. Huge number, we very likely win, but that’s too many here.

Contunuing on with the Kings fade off their recent 11-2 that has ended. This will be their 3rd such stretch this year and the others were followed by a couple weeks of inconsistent play. Suns shouldn’t be dogs here, I think they dictate pace and win game. Good correlated parlay here is Suns ML/Under 239 at around +350.
 

Mloaf71

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Suns officiating crew making this game unwatchable in the third…they clearly played the over.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Good on that first Under. I actually played this one coming up regardless of start time. LeBron in, this should result in slower pace, less aggressiveness on Lakers since. Played U225 just now.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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Well that sucked for the under. 21 points in the last 3 minutes of a game that never got to single digits. Topped off with a useless 3 after useless fouling. Won my bulls action, lost the parlays due to that stat padding. 7 unit lost opportunity due to the leverage on the moneyline + under. F’ers
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Well that sucked for the under. 21 points in the last 3 minutes of a game that never got to single digits. Topped off with a useless 3 after useless fouling. Won my bulls action, lost the parlays due to that stat padding. 7 unit lost opportunity due to the leverage on the moneyline + under. F’ers
Well that was fun. Can we start the playoffs now?
 

Mloaf71

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I may be crazy but I’m all in on the Mavs demise. Playing the Pacers +7.5 and a little on the ML.

Also got in on the Kings before the line moved with the Twolves coming off the crazy win last night.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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I may be crazy but I’m all in on the Mavs demise. Playing the Pacers +7.5 and a little on the ML.

Also got in on the Kings before the line moved with the Twolves coming off the crazy win last night.
The Mavs opened up at -1, so some pretty large line movement.

I’m also on the Kings -4, Pistons +16.5, under Por/NOP 227.5, under Phi/Den 229.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Forgot to post this earlier. Perfect storm game with Lakers opening their road trip against the Bulls in their first game back from a west coast swing. Hope someone sniffed this out.

Edit: Obv very early but just from an angle perspective we’ve discussed here.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played Celtics +3 on the overnight. I expect this to close near a Pick so jump in asap if you plan on it. Celtics check off multiple boxes…..coming off bad loss, Bucks not only playing tonight but playing the type of game where bad habits can carry over to the next night, matchups favor Boston, etc etc.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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Awesome call on Celtics. I leaned into the moneyline on your post.

I’m heavily on under in the NOP/DEN game at 226.5. Looks like the line has dropped to 224. I might add some more if they get off to a fast start in this one, otherwise will ride with what I have.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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The two teams start 0-10 from 3 in the first quarter. Good start but don’t chase at this point.