Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Knicks +3.5
BKN Nets ml +105
Hawks/Nets under 240
Det/Hou under 228
Great job with these, you have been quite hot with your NBA picks.

For those of you on fanduel, they are running a 50% profit boost on final four specials. If you believe UCONN will win tonight (as I do), but don’t like their ML odds or laying points, you can get +odds with the boost on the huskies being the highest scoring team tonight. The UCONN/Miami game should have more scoring than the SDSU/Fla Atlantic game.
 

benhogan

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I know HRB tries his best to offer his experience, thoughts, information, and wisdom to the Silver Dollar thread.

I suspect it would mean a lot to HRB if you lads sent him PMs of encouragement when he returns from vacation.
 

Red Averages

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HRB is the goat and shouldn’t be on “vacation” at this point. good suggestion.

I took the Heat -1 tonight.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I know HRB tries his best to offer his experience, thoughts, information, and wisdom to the Silver Dollar thread.

I suspect it would mean a lot to HRB if you lads sent him PMs of encouragement when he returns from vacation.
Second. I really hope he sticks around.
 

bsan34

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Jul 31, 2006
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I know HRB tries his best to offer his experience, thoughts, information, and wisdom to the Silver Dollar thread.

I suspect it would mean a lot to HRB if you lads sent him PMs of encouragement when he returns from vacation.
Long time lurker / occasional poster. HRB has long been one of the folks I've sought out around this forum, both for gambling and general hoops insight. The level of hoops convo in this forum is so far superior to pretty much anywhere else I frequent, and he's a huge part of that. Hope he continues to be for a long while.

Plus his taste in college hoops teams is impeccable.
 

Red Averages

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I am hammering Uconn/Miami unders (5 units bet laddered between 148 and 133 with a few of those units at adjusted odds) given:

- Miami can’t score on Uconn in half court sets.
- As of now the game is at a big enough spread to move away from a ton of fouls at the end
- there were 61 points scored in the first half. The total reflects 78 points the rest of the game, which is a massive premium for a faster pace, fouling and overtime tail.
- in the first game the first half was 73 points, the 2nd half was 70. I had 3 units under 151, it ended at 143, really only OT in place to ruin that.
- Miami tried to change the pace but it only lasted 5 minutes.
-I just don’t think they can overcome the length of Uconn in this game and dont think Uconn puts up 45+ this half if they are incentivized to slow the pace even more.
- I mean is it really shocking if this game ends at 130 points or less, yet that is 25% odds? Huh? That’s meaningfully more than was scored in the first half to reflect end of game dynamics…. Maybe Miami shoots the lights out per Vegas…
 
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Red Averages

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Added more after the Miami run with 7 straight shots made, and speeding up the pace, when they suddenly stopped pressing with ~11 min left for no reason. Was getting limited on DK so bad to move to Wynn and FanDuel.

15 unit night.

62915
 
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zak1013

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Jul 14, 2005
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I am hammering Uconn/Miami unders (5 units bet laddered between 148 and 133 with a few of those units at adjusted odds) given:

- Miami can’t score on Uconn in half court sets.
- As of now the game is at a big enough spread to move away from a ton of fouls at the end
- there were 61 points scored in the first half. The total reflects 78 points the rest of the game, which is a massive premium for a faster pace, fouling and overtime tail.
- in the first game the first half was 73 points, the 2nd half was 70. I had 3 units under 151, it ended at 143, really only OT in place to ruin that.
- Miami tried to change the pace but it only lasted 5 minutes.
-I just don’t think they can overcome the length of Uconn in this game and dont think Uconn puts up 45+ this half if they are incentivized to slow the pace even more.
- I mean is it really shocking if this game ends at 130 points or less, yet that is 25% odds? Huh? That’s meaningfully more than was scored in the first half to reflect end of game dynamics…. Maybe Miami shoots the lights out per Vegas…
Nice look!
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know HRB tries his best to offer his experience, thoughts, information, and wisdom to the Silver Dollar thread.

I suspect it would mean a lot to HRB if you lads sent him PMs of encouragement when he returns from vacation.
I appreciate this and the other comments. I was also on those 2H UConn Unders like @Red Averages was but it got hairy there for a minute as the Canes entered end-of-game fouling territory. Once it got about 13-14 we were safe though.

The only NBA stuff you missed was this….

View: https://twitter.com/vpoker5/status/1641825827032530947?s=21&t=440jcyPp4dSPc95ERQSFbw
 

HomeRunBaker

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Anyone on the TOR/CHA early under? Number seems low.
Charlotte has a ton of offense either Out or Questionable. They put up 91 on Friday against the Bulls with their depleted roster and Toronto plays super slow.

I’d be on the Under here even if it wasn’t a 1pm Sunday start. Got 223 and it’s still hanging tough at 222.5 but I suspect it will continue downward over next hour unless some injuries are upgraded.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Amazing that we are only a couple points off the live number with 14-24 three’s being made. Very good sign for us and not opposed to adding more live.
 

Red Averages

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I’m on the under in the March Madness final tonight (132.5, looks like it’s down to 131.5 now).
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m on the under in the March Madness final tonight (132.5, looks like it’s down to 131.5 now).
I’ve got nothing. I know a buddy with a 100-1 SD State futures ticket. They have taken advantage of mentally weaker teams down the stretch who were trying to protect leads and I’ve played them in 4 games so far in the tourney. I could see so many different outcomes here that I’ll just be sitting back waiting to attack someone going out to an early run to possibly play back other side or do same with the Total.
 

Red Averages

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My expectation is this starts fairly slow and I’ll try to take some overs at lower levels, but we’ll see.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’ll believe one of these flawed teams take down UConn when I see it. Feels like the UConn/Butler finals where it’s going to be ugly and UConn makes just enough plays to win it late.
 

HomeRunBaker

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To the Association for a moment. Looking to jump in good on one tomorrow.

* New Orleans -2

Sacramento is playing .500 ball since their epic run ended which I talked about upthread. Unfortunately there weren’t many good spots to fade them but I feel tomorrow is one of them. I think the comp they’ve been playing hasn’t challenged them at all and they may have lost their edge.

I’m am also taking some pizza money and beginning a 8-game rollover parlay with a New Orleans/Phoenix ML parlay if I can find a ML on Suns on an offshore (my local sites don’t have it) or I may simply skip the Phoenix leg tonight. I feel there is a real legitimate chance that Phoenix wins out and the Kings lose out to each finish 47-35. It also protects some Kings division future ticket I have.
 

Leon Trotsky

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I have nothing to add other than as a newbie I greatly appreciate you guys putting your picks up here. It really helps provide some guidance of the types of things to look for. Thanks!
 

Red Averages

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The pace in this game is super slow for the first 4 minutes. Just some incredibly hot shooting (8-11).

Taking some under 136.5.
 

Mloaf71

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I had just jumped in on the under at the same number when I saw the shooting go crazy.

Pregame I was on Both Teams to Score - NO at +126. Soon as those first shots went down I was looking for a good under number. Things are reverting now.

Plus DK had a promo for placing a live bet where so got a free $50 NBA bet to use tomorrow.
 
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Mloaf71

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DK has 2nd half lines:
UConn -0.5 -110
SDSU +0.5 -120
O/U 70 -110/-120

Am I the only one that thinks that UConn line is way out of whack?
 

Red Averages

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DK has 2nd half lines:
UConn -0.5 -110
SDSU +0.5 -120
O/U 70 -110/-120

Am I the only one that thinks that UConn line is way out of whack?
I’d probably take SDSU. I won’t, but they couldn’t hit a shot for 10 minutes and are still in it. UConn will get super conservative if they are still up 12 with 8-10 min left and SDSU will be incentivized to keep jacking up shots.
 

Red Averages

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I did same at the first tv timeout. I saw it as low as 127.5……then the track meet began. Ugh
I took a good amount of under halftime between 60.5 and 66. Got lucky during the last 3 min, should have been toast.

Not a great sign for the full-game if it’s such a battle to win the first half when one team can’t make a shot for 10 min. Going to hedge some/play for a middle given I took some adjusted action (128-133) for two units when the full game line was up at 136.
 

HomeRunBaker

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DK has 2nd half lines:
UConn -0.5 -110
SDSU +0.5 -120
O/U 70 -110/-120

Am I the only one that thinks that UConn line is way out of whack?
This is what the Aztecs have done all tournament. Hang around, hang around…..when the game gets into the backend of the 2H the leading team has tightened up and slowed the pace which plays right into SD States game. UConn could also run them out of the building but if they don’t be careful for an Aztec late comeback. I’ll be ready to click them should this 2H turn into a SD State style game like they’ve done all month. Right now all I have is a little Under 135.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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I took a good amount of under halftime between 60.5 and 66. Got lucky during the last 3 min, should have been toast.

Not a great sign for the full-game if it’s such a battle to win the first half when one team can’t make a shot for 10 min. Going to hedge some/play for a middle given I took some adjusted action (128-133) for two units when the full game line was up at 136.
I’m going to wait and see how these first 10 min or so play out and see if the tempo comes to a complete halt or not.
 

Red Averages

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Bulls -3.5
I jumped on NOP -2 based on HRB's post. Looks like it is -4 or -4.5 at some places now.

Unders, unders, unders!!!! With the shift to playoffs coming soon, it's highly likely these totals start coming down as the good teams start actually expanding effort on defense and managing the pace of play. I'm taking all of the below, and using some round robin betting to get leverage to the theme:
Mia/Det under 220
Tor/Cha under 223
Min/BKN under 225
SAC/NOP under 236
BOS/Phi under 227.5
ATL/CHI under 235
LAL/Utah under 237
SAS/PHX under 236
OKC/GS under 242.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m going to wait for the playoffs for that but I’m expecting to see the numbers not adjusted enough just as we saw in the NCAA tournament with the Under cashing in 40 of the 67 games.
 

Red Averages

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Bulls -3.5
I jumped on NOP -2 based on HRB's post. Looks like it is -4 or -4.5 at some places now.

Unders, unders, unders!!!! With the shift to playoffs coming soon, it's highly likely these totals start coming down as the good teams start actually expanding effort on defense and managing the pace of play. I'm taking all of the below, and using some round robin betting to get leverage to the theme:
Mia/Det under 220
Tor/Cha under 223
Min/BKN under 225
SAC/NOP under 236
BOS/Phi under 227.5
ATL/CHI under 235
LAL/Utah under 237
SAS/PHX under 236
OKC/GS under 242.5
6 out of the 9 unders I posted yesterday hit (the 3 I didn't post all went over yikes!). I'm going to do the same thing with the 8 games today. Some of the lines are already coming down quite a bit from where they opened this morning.

edit: 2/8 on unders WOOOOOOOOOOOOOF
 
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HomeRunBaker

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If you haven’t played your Brogdon 6MOY prop at plus money and thought you missed it….think again. Quickley had come out of nowhere to be the betting favorite despite his monster games taking place….when he’s starting! He’s now started 9 of his last 15 games and while still qualifying, looks like he’ll end up starting 25% of the Knicks games this year.

Hearing A LOT of chatter in the media this week about these facts so it is spreading along the voters. As of yesterday you can get Brogdon as high as +330 which is as insane of a price you will find in any prop…..right up there with McClung +400 in the dunk contest but probably even more nuts since at least the McClung number was gone in 20 minutes. Brogdon has been hanging there at over +300 all week!
 

Red Averages

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If you haven’t played your Brogdon 6MOY prop at plus money and thought you missed it….think again. Quickley had come out of nowhere to be the betting favorite despite his monster games taking place….when he’s starting! He’s now started 9 of his last 15 games and while still qualifying, looks like he’ll end up starting 25% of the Knicks games this year.

Hearing A LOT of chatter in the media this week about these facts so it is spreading along the voters. As of yesterday you can get Brogdon as high as +330 which is as insane of a price you will find in any prop…..right up there with McClung +400 in the dunk contest but probably even more nuts since at least the McClung number was gone in 20 minutes. Brogdon has been hanging there at over +300 all week!
Prices:
- WynnBET: +420 (I put in for 5k and was limited to 476 with a manuel review for the remainder….)
- DK +330
- Barstool +300
- FanDuel +240
- Ceasars/BetMGM don’t see any action available
 
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zak1013

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Think these markets must be state-dependent. NY doesn’t seem to allow betting on awards as I don’t see these available, and I don’t recall seeing previous things like Dunk Contest, Oscars etc. either.
 

Red Averages

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By the way, this shows weak these lines are.

+420 at Wynn, they capped me at $476 when I attempted $5000, then dropped it to +300, they capped me at $750 (vs $1500), then dropped it to +250. Paper thin.

Same with DK, moving from +330 to +300 (still in line with Barstool). DK limited me to $1700. Think I have enough for now, given the change in rate I wanted, but nice to get a glimpse into how shallow these markets are.

Also - welcome to the wonderful world of seeing a price, but the brokers changing them when they see attention towards it, just like in markets. Poor Liquidity 101.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I had him maxed on my sites from last month at or around +140. I have a new out and added some +300 but capped at 150. I really wish fuckin DeSantis and the Seminole tribe didn’t screw up the pact here and we get legalization soon. The good news is I’ll be up in New England for two weeks beginning the day before the playoffs begin so fireworks may ensure.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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I can definitely see value in the Brogdon market, even with Quickley playing really well lately. If you were setting markets, what would your odds be for this future? Should it be more like -150/+150 for the two of them? Do you think voters will really knock Quickley for starting 19 or 20 games for the Knicks?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I can definitely see value in the Brogdon market, even with Quickley playing really well lately. If you were setting markets, what would your odds be for this future? Should it be more like -150/+150 for the two of them? Do you think voters will really knock Quickley for starting 19 or 20 games for the Knicks?
It is a 6th man award so finishing the season as a starter is where recency bias comes into play but I’m listening to what multiple media personalities are saying about this as they do have some influence as talking heads. I dunno, maybe a coin flip, lean to Quickley, lean to Brogdon…..one thing I do know is that whichever of them is +300 is tremendous value.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Haven’t followed it but this is common practice when there are obvious pricing errors. Unethical books can easily post “errors” and simply free roll the result. It sucks but I try to not ever get tempted by bad prices that are obvious errors.