Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

Mloaf71

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After that first 5 mins they’ve caught fire. The 148 is going to come down to the wire in this one I think.
 

Mloaf71

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Way under per the usual.

what do we think about the handful of champs tomorrow? Unders across the board?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Way under per the usual.

what do we think about the handful of champs tomorrow? Unders across the board?
Play them now if you have access as they will only move in one direction. I see the Alabama total has been adjusted by 15 pts from their last two games of not getting close to reaching the number. Still probably value though.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I played a little Under on Ivy final, split evenly between 67% 1H (65) and 33% FT (138.5). My biggest play is Alabama -5 which isn’t really that big, comparable to a normal NBA sized play. Aside from some NBA dabble and morning soccer today is a nice reprieve from yesterdays soccer/basketball/ufc insanity.

Mother in law commented “Have you left that table all day?” I told her I used the bathroom and made coffee twice. Off to Gulfstream and a sidewalk dinner before she flies out early this week.

Edit: Lakers -2.5 was my NBA dabble.
 
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Mloaf71

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Ivy made us sweat but U139.5. SEC trending way under at half. So far so good!

Bama is legit, that explosion late in the second half to blow out A&M and hit the over was impressive.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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If anyone has access to the Rockets/Celtics Double Result at over +400 I think there’s value. Houston can cause teams to go through the motions early on before refocusing down the stretch. Boston just got up for a couple games, one coming off 3 straight losses in a spot I loved and then on first game of a road trip which is one motivstionable variable I look at in this spot. So maybe we come out a little flat or uninspired and at +425 or so I don’t mind like a .2u play and add .05u on Tie/Celtics at +1500 or so. We could also be hitting our rhythm again and be up 48-17 after 1Q but the price is right for a little flier here.
 

Red Averages

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Great call on the Rockets first half. That was huge value.

Celtics couldn’t quite make an effort on defense until the final 5 minutes otherwise that would have been an easy win.
 

Red Averages

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Anyone have early thoughts on March Madness?

HRB - Do you have any rules of thumb similar to the massive neutral court finals under alpha?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Anyone have early thoughts on March Madness?

HRB - Do you have any rules of thumb similar to the massive neutral court finals under alpha?
Tons of scoring variance in the first game at a venue, any venue really. I’ll wait for in-game and attack second games and second days of a venue. Historically there has been tells early on as to shooting backgrounds, tight/loose rims, pace, etc as well as natural copycat style of play. Early Day 1 is all observation for me from a Totals view.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Anyone have early thoughts on March Madness?

HRB - Do you have any rules of thumb similar to the massive neutral court finals under alpha?
While I don’t condone Martingale strategies if there was ever a team to use it on it would probably be Purdue. Both point spread and ML. Their guard play is that of Mid-American Conference level and in this tournament guard play is critical.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Anyone have early thoughts on March Madness?

HRB - Do you have any rules of thumb similar to the massive neutral court finals under alpha?
Expected to hear from @Brand Name on the tournament by now, and I second Red Averages' post. I am interested in everyone's thoughts on tournament futures and any first round lines that stick out. Also interested in O/U trends.

Futures in no particular order I like:

Memphis S16 +360
Arizona E8 +172
UCONN E8 +270
Duke E8 +420
Texas E8 +176
Marquette F4 +370

1st round lines:

UCSB +10.5
Colgate +14
Gonzaga -15.5
Kent St. +4.5 & ML
 

HomeRunBaker

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Man, this is a boost of confidence. Thanks for this. But I wish I had better news for you.

Work specifically said no to third parties on my findings. I wish I could give more. Maybe someday if/when I make it front of the cameras?
You will! Keep it up. Need to get you together with Pam & Kelly!
 

Red Averages

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I’m pretty heavy on the opening game unders on Thursday. Early starts, neutral court, some jitters.

Basically on all of them until the Duke game with the exception of USU/Mizz (which is a super early start in CA I believe, but money is on the over early so I paused).
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m pretty heavy on the opening game unders on Thursday. Early starts, neutral court, some jitters.

Basically on all of them until the Duke game with the exception of USU/Mizz (which is a super early start in CA I believe, but money is on the over early so I paused).
1H Unders in the first round are usually good and where I look rather than full game. 2H adjustments and unique end of game dynamics with season on the line are something I try not to be exposed on.
 

Red Averages

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1H Unders in the first round are usually good and where I look rather than full game. 2H adjustments and unique end of game dynamics with season on the line are something I try not to be exposed on.
Sounds like I’ll be shooting for some middles as we approach halftime!
 

Light-Tower-Power

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1H unders off to a hot start with WV and Maryland coming under by a point. Lots of action on those today. Thanks Red Averages and HRB for the reminder.
 

HomeRunBaker

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1H unders off to a hot start with WV and Maryland coming under by a point. Lots of action on those today. Thanks Red Averages and HRB for the reminder.
Snuck them both in nicely. The other two I played are the Missouri and Charleston 1H Unders in the day slate.

One potential in-game/2H situational spot to really look out for in the day games is Alabama. Texas A&MCC got the jitters out with a tight play-in game win. If they come out fine with some fight I’d look for Alabama to go on one of their patented runs as the game goes on.
 

Leon Trotsky

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I know nothing about this betting thing, but did win C's on moneyline last night and a couple bets on Furman. I am here for any and all tips on what are smarter bets!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Clean sweeping the day board but getting back to the NBA there’s one real good one with Sacramento in a schedule loss spot.

* Brooklyn -3

I also sprinkled some on Nets Winning Margin, 17-20 (+1250) and 21+ (+650).

If you’re a total defen and want to tail an CFL player, Seattle +4 is good.
 

BigSoxFan

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Got absolutely boned by that Auburn/Iowa 2H. Needed 157 or less and they score 158 with last basket coming with 16 seconds. 100 points in 2nd half. Ouch.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thursday’s Numbers:

1H Unders went 11-5 which wasn’t unexpected but what was surprising is that the 2H Unders were 12-4! Dictating pace was the clear the game plan for several winners like Duke, Princeton and Maryland while the Northern Kentuckys and Colgates tried but ran into tough matchups.

It is MUCH easier to slow down the pace of a game than to speed it up. Colgate ran into hot 1H shooting so they never had a chance but limiting possessions isn’t only going to help keep a game tight but also disrupting the opponents faster tempo and rhythm most of the time.

Looking at Drake and Vermont to take this to extremes today so like both Unders, especially 1H, among the best today. I don’t recall specifically but I believe Shaka Smart has lost 7 consecutive 1st round games as a favorite hesding into this tournament. Vermont live for an upset against a team who just gave it their all to win their conference last weekend. Tough spot for Marquette here to survive.

Hope at least one of you degens tailed the XFL outright winner! Houston was a 4-0 fraud.
 
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Red Averages

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I could be wrong but I think every full game under has hit, and almost none of the first half unders. Pretty wild early on.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I could be wrong but I think every full game under has hit, and almost none of the first half unders. Pretty wild early on.
First round games in this tournament are like NBA Sunday noon games from the point of you just expect a shit ton of variance. Fun week though. The two games approaching the half should break the 1H Over streak.
 

Red Averages

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While I don’t condone Martingale strategies if there was ever a team to use it on it would probably be Purdue. Both point spread and ML. Their guard play is that of Mid-American Conference level and in this tournament guard play is critical.
HRB for President
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB for President
Awww shucks!

I had some FDU but nothing special and no ML available for me. Kinda upset that I overlooked this game as nothing more than a auto-fade of Purdue.

Full game Unders 14-2 on Friday if I’m counting correctly (totally possible I’m not). I’m not going through each 1H number but several went Over in 1H but stayed Under for the full game. Weird day, made some bad plays and didn’t take advantage of live betting as I could have. Went through the motions…..felt like the Celtics in Houston.

* For Sunday mornings degen play we head across the pond to St. Mary’s Stadium, the largest football stadium in South East England and home of Southampton Football Club. We like the home team to upset the Spurs at a juicy price of +370.
 
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Green (Tongued) Monster

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Expected to hear from @Brand Name on the tournament by now, and I second Red Averages' post. I am interested in everyone's thoughts on tournament futures and any first round lines that stick out. Also interested in O/U trends.

Futures in no particular order I like:

Memphis S16 +360
Arizona E8 +172
UCONN E8 +270
Duke E8 +420
Texas E8 +176
Marquette F4 +370

1st round lines:

UCSB +10.5
Colgate +14
Gonzaga -15.5
Kent St. +4.5 & ML
Hope you guys faded me. Sticking with NBA unders.
 

BigSoxFan

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Awww shucks!

I had some FDU but nothing special and no ML available for me. Kinda upset that I overlooked this game as nothing more than a auto-fade of Purdue.

Full game Unders 14-2 on Friday if I’m counting correctly (totally possible I’m not). I’m not going through each 1H number but several went Over in 1H but stayed Under for the full game. Weird day, made some bad plays and didn’t take advantage of live betting as I could have. Went through the motions…..felt like the Celtics in Houston.

* For Sunday mornings degen play we head across the pond to St. Mary’s Stadium, the largest football stadium in South East England and home of Southampton Football Club. We like the home team to upset the Spurs at a juicy price of +370.
You’ll like this. Put $5 on alternate unders for 13 games. Got 12 of 13! Only miss? UConn. By 3 points. Payout +32500. Ouch.

The lesson, as always, is UConn sucks.
 

Red Averages

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For NCAA I’m on:
-Under Duke/Tenn 3 units
- Ark +3.5
- under NW/UCLA 2 units
- over (!!!) Alabama/Maryland 1 unit
-Auburn +5.5 1 unit
 

Red Averages

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You’ll like this. Put $5 on alternate unders for 13 games. Got 12 of 13! Only miss? UConn. By 3 points. Payout +32500. Ouch.

The lesson, as always, is UConn sucks.
The lesson, as always, is to hedge your monster leveraged bets as the leverage builds (first 8 games correct)!!!
 

BigSoxFan

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The lesson, as always, is to hedge your monster leveraged bets as the leverage builds (first 8 games correct)!!!
Problem is UConn was 7 of 13. Too early to really hedge effectively. Still had 6 more games to go. But absolutely would have hedged if it came down to final 3 or so.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That’s nuts…..both for idea for the play AND the result! I knew there would be some pace to that game but it turned out to be a full blown track meet without much to protect the rim.

Not a whole lot today in the tournament. Mostly UFC stuff today but have some Furman +5.5,, Arkansas +3.5, Penn St +5.5, Under 147 Princeton/Missouri. Didn’t pull trigger on either Duke or Auburn but I lean them too.
 

Marceline

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The rate of unders hitting has been absolutely wild the last couple days.

HRB, what do you use for unit size as a % of total bankroll? Should bankroll be 20 units, 50 units, etc?
 

HomeRunBaker

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The rate of unders hitting has been absolutely wild the last couple days.

HRB, what do you use for unit size as a % of total bankroll? Should bankroll be 20 units, 50 units, etc?
All six non-NCAA games alll went Under too and most by a lot. While NCAA R1 historically has a significant Under bias, nothing like this year though, the opposite is the norm for these events.

If this were a Facebook relationship it would read, “It’s complicated.” I play high volume so while some would play 2-3% per play if I did that on a Saturday I’d come close to 100% lol. So many variables but I guess I’d call an average play like todays NCAA around .75% and something super strong closer to 2-3% but those are rare for anything other than UFC. My largest plays on a regular basis are UFC but these are hard due to limits the availability of certain markets. I’m in FL which is currently a non-legal state so I don’t have access to FD, DK, etc etc. I deal with offshore and some locals which I’m running out of the latter.

Edit: Both NBA day games went Under too. Gold!
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Unders in ALL 8 college games getting hammered this morning! What could possibly go wrong?
 

Red Averages

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Unders in ALL 8 college games getting hammered this morning! What could possibly go wrong?
Yup. Way to consensus.
I’m on Xavier -5, UK -2.5, Mich St +2.5 and some moneyline, FAU -15.5 and TCU +5.

also big on Nets, OKc and Spurs
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Xavier doing Xavier things to get this first game trending high. If Pitt can keep this close at the half I see a great opportunity for a 2H Under with the Panthers utilizing the break to focus on dictating a slower tempo. Coming out trying to run with Xavier? Not sure if Capel had the best game plan coming in.

I played Kentucky some but they aren’t super trustworthy. If they repeat their R1 performance they should roll though. My biggest plays are in the same game, Fairleigh Dickinson +15.5 and Under 149.5 although the latter number is long gone. Both FDU and FAU should have some nerves on this stage and may play more cautious than usual especially in the 2H so their pace projects to be slower than normal, hence Under. FAU is suddenly a 15.5 pt favorite to reach the Sweet Sixteen….not a position they are familiar with and don’t expect them to handle prosperity optimally. Should be a relatively close game, I make the number 11 so it’s an auto—bet for me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Missed garbage time dunk to hit the under! Bravo.
Even better I played the 2H Over and live Over early 2H as the track meet was ensuing so hit the perfect middle. Crushed the game but didn’t have as much discipline in other spots today that I’m kinda upset about. Learn every day.

Btw, lost in the shuffle were NBA day game totals going 4-1 this weekend.