Play them now if you have access as they will only move in one direction. I see the Alabama total has been adjusted by 15 pts from their last two games of not getting close to reaching the number. Still probably value though.Way under per the usual.
what do we think about the handful of champs tomorrow? Unders across the board?
Tons of scoring variance in the first game at a venue, any venue really. I’ll wait for in-game and attack second games and second days of a venue. Historically there has been tells early on as to shooting backgrounds, tight/loose rims, pace, etc as well as natural copycat style of play. Early Day 1 is all observation for me from a Totals view.Anyone have early thoughts on March Madness?
HRB - Do you have any rules of thumb similar to the massive neutral court finals under alpha?
While I don’t condone Martingale strategies if there was ever a team to use it on it would probably be Purdue. Both point spread and ML. Their guard play is that of Mid-American Conference level and in this tournament guard play is critical.Anyone have early thoughts on March Madness?
HRB - Do you have any rules of thumb similar to the massive neutral court finals under alpha?
Expected to hear from @Brand Name on the tournament by now, and I second Red Averages' post. I am interested in everyone's thoughts on tournament futures and any first round lines that stick out. Also interested in O/U trends.Anyone have early thoughts on March Madness?
HRB - Do you have any rules of thumb similar to the massive neutral court finals under alpha?
Expected to hear from @Brand Name on the tournament by now
You will! Keep it up. Need to get you together with Pam & Kelly!Man, this is a boost of confidence. Thanks for this. But I wish I had better news for you.
Work specifically said no to third parties on my findings. I wish I could give more. Maybe someday if/when I make it front of the cameras?
Hell to the yeah, that's my absolute dream of all dreams. Always be working.You will! Keep it up. Need to get you together with Pam & Kelly!
1H Unders in the first round are usually good and where I look rather than full game. 2H adjustments and unique end of game dynamics with season on the line are something I try not to be exposed on.I’m pretty heavy on the opening game unders on Thursday. Early starts, neutral court, some jitters.
Basically on all of them until the Duke game with the exception of USU/Mizz (which is a super early start in CA I believe, but money is on the over early so I paused).
Sounds like I’ll be shooting for some middles as we approach halftime!1H Unders in the first round are usually good and where I look rather than full game. 2H adjustments and unique end of game dynamics with season on the line are something I try not to be exposed on.
Snuck them both in nicely. The other two I played are the Missouri and Charleston 1H Unders in the day slate.1H unders off to a hot start with WV and Maryland coming under by a point. Lots of action on those today. Thanks Red Averages and HRB for the reminder.
Brooklyn thought I played their 1H Under too…..they scored 3 pts in the final 6:00 of the half. Yes, especially the day games.1H unders doing pretty, pretty well today.
Yeah it was a great tip by HRB. Texas with the stupid foul to sneak it over in the latest game.1H unders doing pretty, pretty well today.
First round games in this tournament are like NBA Sunday noon games from the point of you just expect a shit ton of variance. Fun week though. The two games approaching the half should break the 1H Over streak.I could be wrong but I think every full game under has hit, and almost none of the first half unders. Pretty wild early on.
HRB for PresidentWhile I don’t condone Martingale strategies if there was ever a team to use it on it would probably be Purdue. Both point spread and ML. Their guard play is that of Mid-American Conference level and in this tournament guard play is critical.
Awww shucks!HRB for President
Hope you guys faded me. Sticking with NBA unders.Expected to hear from @Brand Name on the tournament by now, and I second Red Averages' post. I am interested in everyone's thoughts on tournament futures and any first round lines that stick out. Also interested in O/U trends.
Futures in no particular order I like:
Memphis S16 +360
Arizona E8 +172
UCONN E8 +270
Duke E8 +420
Texas E8 +176
Marquette F4 +370
1st round lines:
UCSB +10.5
Colgate +14
Gonzaga -15.5
Kent St. +4.5 & ML
You’ll like this. Put $5 on alternate unders for 13 games. Got 12 of 13! Only miss? UConn. By 3 points. Payout +32500. Ouch.Awww shucks!
I had some FDU but nothing special and no ML available for me. Kinda upset that I overlooked this game as nothing more than a auto-fade of Purdue.
Full game Unders 14-2 on Friday if I’m counting correctly (totally possible I’m not). I’m not going through each 1H number but several went Over in 1H but stayed Under for the full game. Weird day, made some bad plays and didn’t take advantage of live betting as I could have. Went through the motions…..felt like the Celtics in Houston.
* For Sunday mornings degen play we head across the pond to St. Mary’s Stadium, the largest football stadium in South East England and home of Southampton Football Club. We like the home team to upset the Spurs at a juicy price of +370.
The lesson, as always, is to hedge your monster leveraged bets as the leverage builds (first 8 games correct)!!!You’ll like this. Put $5 on alternate unders for 13 games. Got 12 of 13! Only miss? UConn. By 3 points. Payout +32500. Ouch.
The lesson, as always, is UConn sucks.
Problem is UConn was 7 of 13. Too early to really hedge effectively. Still had 6 more games to go. But absolutely would have hedged if it came down to final 3 or so.The lesson, as always, is to hedge your monster leveraged bets as the leverage builds (first 8 games correct)!!!
All six non-NCAA games alll went Under too and most by a lot. While NCAA R1 historically has a significant Under bias, nothing like this year though, the opposite is the norm for these events.The rate of unders hitting has been absolutely wild the last couple days.
HRB, what do you use for unit size as a % of total bankroll? Should bankroll be 20 units, 50 units, etc?
Yup. Way to consensus.Unders in ALL 8 college games getting hammered this morning! What could possibly go wrong?
Missed garbage time dunk to hit the under! Bravo.My biggest plays are in the same game, Fairleigh Dickinson +15.5 and Under 149.5 although the latter number is long gone.
Even better I played the 2H Over and live Over early 2H as the track meet was ensuing so hit the perfect middle. Crushed the game but didn’t have as much discipline in other spots today that I’m kinda upset about. Learn every day.Missed garbage time dunk to hit the under! Bravo.