One NBA play today:
U235.5 Pistons/Mavericks at ESPNBet, most other places U234.5 is still good.
U235.5 Pistons/Mavericks at ESPNBet, most other places U234.5 is still good.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Had info early this morning that Doncic was sitting so was expecting 4-5 pts CLV but went the other way. It moved before I could cover. It happens.
Bringing this over here. Maybe you can make some money on Hauser/Pritchard points OVER tonight.
OUT: Brown, KP, Horford...That's a lot of shots for Sam & Payton to sop up.
Last night:
PP got the start/30 minutes last night. Didn't shoot particularly well 5/11 but a decent line:
11 points (hit the over - 8.5), 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 0 turnovers, +12
CJM rode Hauser's hot hand for 32 minutes and 22 points (6/10 from 3)
Forgot to post Lakers here tonight. Had it on the Discord. Tomorrow played the Pelicans -7.5 in a great great spot.
Yw. Are you in the Discord? NBA, Tennis and Soccer all absolutely crushing.
Tonight is probably one of those “Close your eyes and tell me the final score” type of game but as mentioned in another thread the last place this Celtics team wants to be on the end of their trip is in Charlotte today following their bounce back circled win over the Pelicans. Charlotte +17 is an autobet here at normal (1u) regular season bet sizing.
I’d imagine several starters sit for Boston but honestly I’d prefer their halfhearted effort than second unit energy…although even those guys may not have a hop in their step for this scheduling spot. It’s so bad it’s worth a .1u sprinkle on the ML at +900
I’d imagine several starters sit for Boston but honestly I’d prefer their halfhearted effort than second unit energy…although even those guys may not have a hop in their step for this scheduling spot. It’s so bad it’s worth a .1u sprinkle on the ML at +900
+17 is just so ludicrous. I thought so before the game too when I saw your post, so not hindsight. It's really hard to justify numbers like that, especially this point in the season.
Could have gotten up to +18.5 by gametime after lineups were finalized. If I expected all but Jaylen to go I’d have waited for better number. Bad read on that by me.
OKC Thunder +11
Celtics first game home following long trip coupled with a natural letdown with SGA and JW now OUT for OKC.
Celtics first game home following long trip coupled with a natural letdown with SGA and JW now OUT for OKC.
Lots of discussion in Discord on MIP, DPOY and COY markets. Anyone who’s been tailing here has Coby White at around +500 or so (he’s now +150), and Wemby around +900 iirc. Myself, and some others, added to Wemby at as much as +1000 today which seem outrageous….and sprinkled some on Mazzulla at +4000 for COY. One unnamed SoSHer did more than sprinkle him at +5000 (wasn’t me).
You can usually get ahead of these markets pretty easily as we did with White and as we did when we cashed Brogdon last year for 6th man. Wemby, well I think we “should” have gotten ahead of it but for some reason Gobert is still -1500 which to me is insane. COY is another where Daigneault is still -300 and Mazzulla as high as 50-1. I fully expect these numbers to condense by the end of the season with maybe some luster coming off OKC with Finch, Mosley and Mazzulla taking some of the money. It’s simple math and analysis of voter psychology…..does Mazzulla win this more than twice over 100 votes….does Wemby win more than 1 out of 10 votes? So the value is absolutely there we now need those winning iterations to come through in the actual vote.
The cool thing is that as we draw near there will be leaks and tweets of who certain voters are clicking so these markets can get volatile as this occurs. Key is to get ahead of the moves.
You can usually get ahead of these markets pretty easily as we did with White and as we did when we cashed Brogdon last year for 6th man. Wemby, well I think we “should” have gotten ahead of it but for some reason Gobert is still -1500 which to me is insane. COY is another where Daigneault is still -300 and Mazzulla as high as 50-1. I fully expect these numbers to condense by the end of the season with maybe some luster coming off OKC with Finch, Mosley and Mazzulla taking some of the money. It’s simple math and analysis of voter psychology…..does Mazzulla win this more than twice over 100 votes….does Wemby win more than 1 out of 10 votes? So the value is absolutely there we now need those winning iterations to come through in the actual vote.
The cool thing is that as we draw near there will be leaks and tweets of who certain voters are clicking so these markets can get volatile as this occurs. Key is to get ahead of the moves.
Bad bet. Even though it was a single digit game in the 4Q I underestimated the Celtics remaining focus for 48 min even after the injury report. Playoffs are around the corner.
Really feels like Wemby is getting closer to a coin flip, so I’ll take the 7-10% market odds all day.
Similarly, Joe at 2% or 3% odds when he should be closer to 20-25 is something I’m comfortable smashing even if I don’t expect to win.
Similarly, Joe at 2% or 3% odds when he should be closer to 20-25 is something I’m comfortable smashing even if I don’t expect to win.
Betting against the Celtics now when they sit 3 of the TOP6 (something I expect with Al, JB, Jrue, KP getting extra rest) is tricky.
White/Tatum are wired to play hard every game. Then stick Hauser/PP/Luke/Tillman on the court with them & that group will be perpetually underrated.
Wemby is gaining media steam for DPOY yet the market isn’t adjusting. I added more Wemby at +1100 this morning. I have NO idea what his implied probability is on this….maybe Wemby wins 5 of 10 iterations, maybe 3 of 10. One thing I’m certain of is that he wins 1 of 10. You don’t see this kind of value and market inefficiency very often in 2024.
Most fun time of the year for the Silver Dollar. Any chance we can get another Discord invite for those of who missed out?
https://discord.gg/KVG5Peg8
UFC had a big bounce back week +11u, tennis and soccer continues to grind. New cappers added each of past two weeks also.
For some reason in the discord I can read all the different threads except the nba one. Anyone else having that issue?
On the discord site, what's the difference between these threads?:
1. VIP nba-official-postseason
2. VIP nba-playoffs-liveplays
3. nba-discussion
I presume that that day's/night's picks are placed in #1; "ongoing" picks during games are placed in #2; and that #3 is general discussion unrelated to picks?
1. VIP nba-official-postseason
2. VIP nba-playoffs-liveplays
3. nba-discussion
I presume that that day's/night's picks are placed in #1; "ongoing" picks during games are placed in #2; and that #3 is general discussion unrelated to picks?
Yeah I’m still going to throw stuff in here for those who don’t do Discord but if something is Discord-related please keep it out of this thread and PM me over there. Ty
Looks like we are in decent shape for those who tailed the Coby White Most Improved Player at +500 (or +600, I forget what it was when I posted here). Seems like we are benefiting from many voters leaving Maxey off their ballot completely as he’s been really good for awhile now. Recency bias at its finest and always a factor in these ballots.
Unfortunately we ran into a bunch of nut jobs who also left Wemby completely off their DPOY ballot to have a shot at the huge upset there. He’s hanging in on the 1st place votes but is going to come up short at his monster price.
Unfortunately we ran into a bunch of nut jobs who also left Wemby completely off their DPOY ballot to have a shot at the huge upset there. He’s hanging in on the 1st place votes but is going to come up short at his monster price.
60-white old writers going with the “They lost 60 games he didn’t have an impact” angle. Shameful. To me, there were only 3 players who deserved votes as the gap to 4 was enormous. The gap from 1a/1b to Anthony Davis at 3 was equally wide. Bam and Herb Jones getting votes over Wemby should require a reasoning essay to league headquarters. (Hyperbole…sort of)
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Actually slow start preflops -1.7u in playoffs there but +4.2u official live bets. Soccer is up about 20u and Tennis 10u since I began this last month. Funny that my two historically best sports, UFC and NBA are the laggards. That’s a great sign.
The officiating changes since the ASB and now into the playoffs have really messed with my Totals but constantly adapting. I actually have a 1H Over tonight. I’ll share here it’s Pacers/Bucks o109.
The link expires every 24-48 hours I think. Here’s fresh one.
https://discord.gg/MPfVcPpx
I’ll throw a prop in here since it’s in the Celtics game.
* Jrue Holiday o19.5 Pts/Reb/Ast (+105)
I’d expect heavy minutes again for Jrue. He had plenty of scoring opportunities in G2 but missed a ton of bunnies. Miami will force ball rotation which should help his assist number and I’d assume more Miami misses than in G2 for additional rebound opportunities. He avg 22.7 during reg season, will like get an extra 4-5 minw the shorter rotation and the game sets up well for him in a bounce back spot.
* Jrue Holiday o19.5 Pts/Reb/Ast (+105)
I’d expect heavy minutes again for Jrue. He had plenty of scoring opportunities in G2 but missed a ton of bunnies. Miami will force ball rotation which should help his assist number and I’d assume more Miami misses than in G2 for additional rebound opportunities. He avg 22.7 during reg season, will like get an extra 4-5 minw the shorter rotation and the game sets up well for him in a bounce back spot.
Not mine. It’s one area I’ve never been able to figure out. It’s the 3Q and Jrue just took his first FGA and despite Miami’s 30 missed FGA attempts he has zero rebounds. Lol
Sharing our pre-series plays here now that these numbers are long gone in fairness to Discord subscribers.
* Timberwolves +1.5 games (-130) 1.5u
* Timberwolves in 6 (+600) .5u
* Mavericks to win WC (+700) .5u
Added today to complement/hedge Wolves play (would not play alone at this price unless you receives an odds boost)
* Nuggets to win G2 and win series (+150) .5u
* Timberwolves +1.5 games (-130) 1.5u
* Timberwolves in 6 (+600) .5u
* Mavericks to win WC (+700) .5u
Added today to complement/hedge Wolves play (would not play alone at this price unless you receives an odds boost)
* Nuggets to win G2 and win series (+150) .5u
Prop for tonight. The usage of the star player skyrockets in elimination games coupled with the bounce back I like this one here:
* Anthony Edwards o30.5 Points
* Anthony Edwards o30.5 Points
Posted to my Discord but figured someone here may be interested too.
The Massachusetts Gaming Commission roundtable discussion on sportsbooks' practice of limiting bettors can be watched here:
https://www.youtube.com/live/UWey5L89JSc?si=1HwfYTJ4pFoZAcHW
The Massachusetts Gaming Commission roundtable discussion on sportsbooks' practice of limiting bettors can be watched here:
https://www.youtube.com/live/UWey5L89JSc?si=1HwfYTJ4pFoZAcHW
Ten sportsbook operators declined to participate in a roundtable discussion on the practice of limiting bettors with the Massachusetts Gaming Commission.
Wow!!
Wow!!
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Bump for non-bettors or newbs who aren’t in my Discord but wish to follow and root on your fellow SoSHers. NBA this season is 50-32 for +24.49u and still only in November! Below are the Futures wagers that we are on. Got in early on every single one well ahead of the market moves. Lakers are now all but done having lost last 2. All others very live at varying degrees.
7/22 Lakers to Win Emirates Cup (+2800)
10/15 Jayson Tatum MVP (+2000)
10/18 Dalton Knecht ROY (+1600)
10/29 Payton Pritchard 6MOY (+2000)
10/29 Sixers to make Playoffs - NO (+800)
11/19 Mavericks u49.5 Wins (+100)
11/19 Bucks o43.5 Wins (-120)
Pritchard, Sixers and the Bucks look to be in great shape. These 3 get there is like a 230% ROI. Throw in a Tatum or Knecht and it’s Pants Off!! Cheer us on!
7/22 Lakers to Win Emirates Cup (+2800)
10/15 Jayson Tatum MVP (+2000)
10/18 Dalton Knecht ROY (+1600)
10/29 Payton Pritchard 6MOY (+2000)
10/29 Sixers to make Playoffs - NO (+800)
11/19 Mavericks u49.5 Wins (+100)
11/19 Bucks o43.5 Wins (-120)
Pritchard, Sixers and the Bucks look to be in great shape. These 3 get there is like a 230% ROI. Throw in a Tatum or Knecht and it’s Pants Off!! Cheer us on!
OK, great work on the BUCKs, didn't realize it had gone down to 43.5 (50 wins is still the right #)
Knecht looks the part on the floor, a lot of size/aggressiveness going to the rim (not just a C&S shooter)
Like/liked all the above
What is Orlando's win #? I know you've liked them for years. They have been good even with Banchero out
Orlando is currently 51.5 with juice to the Over (meaning it is closer to 52.5 than 50.5). Pre-season they were 47.5 and my Win Projection for them was 53. I'll copy/paste my preview from the preseason.
Orlando Magic, Win Total 47.5 (Win Projection: 53) The up and coming Magic return their entire core from a group that went from 22 to 34 and then to 47 wins over the last two seasons. This is a bit misleading as the first leap to 34 really should have been much greater had injuries not decimated the team to start that season when they began 5-20 as they played .500 ball from there on out once they returned 3 key players to the lineup. So why only the leap from .500 to 47 wins last year then? As currently constructed this teams ceiling is capped slightly higher due to their offensive issues more specifically their shot profiles as they have been 26th and 22nd the last two years in offensive efficiency ahead of mostly only tanking lottery teams. Their two go-to guys, Banchero and Wagner, shot 33.9 and 28.1% from 3-pt last year as the defense from last year was right at the top of the league with Minnesota, Boston and post-ASB Mavericks which kept them afloat. The addition of newcomer Caldwell-Pope and his 40% 3-pt mark over the last 5 seasons in 3 different organizations should help as he's showed to be effective regardless of system or teammates. One would have to expect Wagner's horrific season shooting the ball to be an anomaly as he had been competent in his first two years in the league above 35%.
Defense will continue to be this teams identity led by Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black and Jonathan Isaac. The rest of the rotation doesn't really have a weak link in it and has a full team buyin allowing for both switchability and an opponents game plan not being able to targer anyone or any specific weakness. The ball pressure they produce up top slows the pace and forces the offense to execute with the shot clock in single digits which is a large factor in their success. Adding Caldwell-Pope to this group only strengths them and adds depth on that end of the floor in replacing the Joe Ingles second unit minutes. This should be the #1 rated defense in the league entering the season imo The continuity with which Orlando brings into this season along with leaps you'd expect players in their young 20's to make, coupled with Caldwell-Pope make this tram primed to get out of the gates quickly. We saw on opening night the two teams who made multiple rotation changes had their struggles against Boston and the Lakers, two teams with continuity from last season. I expect a decent bump by the Magic this year but without elite shot creators in the halfcourt aside from your top two who aren't yet good 3-pt shooters you have a team with a capped win total. Even so, their future is as good as any franchise in the league and in how they have created their identity as a defensive juggernaut with such a young team is unheard of in this league.
EDIT: Wagner has normalized his shooting back to his first two seasons of 35.4 and 36.1 to show that last seasons 28.1 was an anomaly. He clearly worked on this over the summer as his volume is way up, 6.2 per game compared to last years 4.6 showing his increased confidence and larger role with Banchero out. Defense is still elite at #2 in league despite their turtle-like offensive pace to assist in that ranking which places my personal defensive ranking of them slightly lower behind OKC, Clippers, Rockets and Warriors. They have to find a way to make some personnel moves to create a better balance. As I said in the preview, until they do so their upside is capped as you simply cannot compete for a Championship with the 23rd ranked offense.
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