Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,255
One NBA play today:

U235.5 Pistons/Mavericks at ESPNBet, most other places U234.5 is still good.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,255
Up to 237.5. Someone unexpectedly playing or is this something to bury?
Had info early this morning that Doncic was sitting so was expecting 4-5 pts CLV but went the other way. It moved before I could cover. It happens.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,296
Santa Monica
Has he ever even played 30 min in an NBA game? Haven’t looked but if he did I’m sure it was a blowout so I wouldn’t really factor that much and if he did play that much it is due to him having it going on that night.
Bringing this over here. Maybe you can make some money on Hauser/Pritchard points OVER tonight.
OUT: Brown, KP, Horford...That's a lot of shots for Sam & Payton to sop up.

Last night:
PP got the start/30 minutes last night. Didn't shoot particularly well 5/11 but a decent line:
11 points (hit the over - 8.5), 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 0 turnovers, +12

CJM rode Hauser's hot hand for 32 minutes and 22 points (6/10 from 3)
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,255
Forgot to post Lakers here tonight. Had it on the Discord. Tomorrow played the Pelicans -7.5 in a great great spot.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,255
Tonight is probably one of those “Close your eyes and tell me the final score” type of game but as mentioned in another thread the last place this Celtics team wants to be on the end of their trip is in Charlotte today following their bounce back circled win over the Pelicans. Charlotte +17 is an autobet here at normal (1u) regular season bet sizing.

I’d imagine several starters sit for Boston but honestly I’d prefer their halfhearted effort than second unit energy…although even those guys may not have a hop in their step for this scheduling spot. It’s so bad it’s worth a .1u sprinkle on the ML at +900
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,255
Tonight is probably one of those “Close your eyes and tell me the final score” type of game but as mentioned in another thread the last place this Celtics team wants to be on the end of their trip is in Charlotte today following their bounce back circled win over the Pelicans. Charlotte +17 is an autobet here at normal (1u) regular season bet sizing.

I’d imagine several starters sit for Boston but honestly I’d prefer their halfhearted effort than second unit energy…although even those guys may not have a hop in their step for this scheduling spot. It’s so bad it’s worth a .1u sprinkle on the ML at +900
Cha-Ching.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,255
+17 is just so ludicrous. I thought so before the game too when I saw your post, so not hindsight. It's really hard to justify numbers like that, especially this point in the season.
Could have gotten up to +18.5 by gametime after lineups were finalized. If I expected all but Jaylen to go I’d have waited for better number. Bad read on that by me.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,255
OKC Thunder +11

Celtics first game home following long trip coupled with a natural letdown with SGA and JW now OUT for OKC.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,255
Lots of discussion in Discord on MIP, DPOY and COY markets. Anyone who’s been tailing here has Coby White at around +500 or so (he’s now +150), and Wemby around +900 iirc. Myself, and some others, added to Wemby at as much as +1000 today which seem outrageous….and sprinkled some on Mazzulla at +4000 for COY. One unnamed SoSHer did more than sprinkle him at +5000 (wasn’t me).

You can usually get ahead of these markets pretty easily as we did with White and as we did when we cashed Brogdon last year for 6th man. Wemby, well I think we “should” have gotten ahead of it but for some reason Gobert is still -1500 which to me is insane. COY is another where Daigneault is still -300 and Mazzulla as high as 50-1. I fully expect these numbers to condense by the end of the season with maybe some luster coming off OKC with Finch, Mosley and Mazzulla taking some of the money. It’s simple math and analysis of voter psychology…..does Mazzulla win this more than twice over 100 votes….does Wemby win more than 1 out of 10 votes? So the value is absolutely there we now need those winning iterations to come through in the actual vote.

The cool thing is that as we draw near there will be leaks and tweets of who certain voters are clicking so these markets can get volatile as this occurs. Key is to get ahead of the moves.


OKC Thunder +11

Celtics first game home following long trip coupled with a natural letdown with SGA and JW now OUT for OKC.
Bad bet. Even though it was a single digit game in the 4Q I underestimated the Celtics remaining focus for 48 min even after the injury report. Playoffs are around the corner.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,132
Really feels like Wemby is getting closer to a coin flip, so I’ll take the 7-10% market odds all day.

Similarly, Joe at 2% or 3% odds when he should be closer to 20-25 is something I’m comfortable smashing even if I don’t expect to win.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,296
Santa Monica
Bad bet. Even though it was a single digit game in the 4Q I underestimated the Celtics remaining focus for 48 min even after the injury report. Playoffs are around the corner.
Betting against the Celtics now when they sit 3 of the TOP6 (something I expect with Al, JB, Jrue, KP getting extra rest) is tricky.

White/Tatum are wired to play hard every game. Then stick Hauser/PP/Luke/Tillman on the court with them & that group will be perpetually underrated.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,255
Wemby is gaining media steam for DPOY yet the market isn’t adjusting. I added more Wemby at +1100 this morning. I have NO idea what his implied probability is on this….maybe Wemby wins 5 of 10 iterations, maybe 3 of 10. One thing I’m certain of is that he wins 1 of 10. You don’t see this kind of value and market inefficiency very often in 2024.