Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

[HomeRunBaker]

It’s that glorious time if the year again as we open up the new NBA betting thread! “Silver Dollar” can be a placeholder until someone comes up with a more creative name.

Made one futures play this week to start the year but I see many more in the coming weeks. I’m surprised we haven’t seen much of an adjustment not only based off Udoka but the more impactful news of TL missing (possibly significant) time.

After a deep playoff run it is common in professional sports for teams to mentally take their foot off the gas in how they approach the following regular season. I’m still long term bullish on the Celtics but a slower than anticipated start without TL and a new coach could have this team playing catch up with that season win total. The value here is undoubtedly to the low in this one.

* Celtics Under 54.5 season wins

 

[sonofgodcf]

I was really impressed by Detroit once Cade returned last year - over/under for wins is 29.5 and I feel like they're a borderline playoff team. Am I crazy to think that's a pretty achievable number to beat?

 

[Plantiers Wart]

Golden State over 51.5
Jazz under 24.5

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I was really impressed by Detroit once Cade returned last year - over/under for wins is 29.5 and I feel like they're a borderline playoff team. Am I crazy to think that's a pretty achievable number to beat?

Pistons are def on my short list. I like them and I will have Cade on my MIP roster if I can get a decent price on him.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Golden State over 51.5

If you believe ESPN/Pelton’s statistical projections….

1. PHX - 49
2. DEN - 47.9
3. NOP - 47.6
4. MEM - 46.1
5. MIN - 45.7
6. LAC - 43.6
7. DAL - 43.1
8. GSW - 41.9

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/34684272/nba-preview-2022-23-stats-based-win-projections-all-30-teams-why-contenders-slipping

538: The Warriors suck.
ESPN: Hold my beer.

 

[j-man]

my 02 cents
EAST i had boston 1st but now i have milw ahead of bos
East
1 Milw
2 Bos
3 brook
4 mia
5 philly
6 cle
7 chi
8 atl
9 Cha
10 ny
11 det
12 wash
13 tor
14 orl
15 indy

 

[j-man]

West
1 GS
2 LAC
3 MEM
4 PHO
5 DAL
6 MINN
7 NO
8 DEN
9 LAKERS
10 POR
11 SA
12 SAC
13 OKC
14 HOU
15 UTA

 

[HomeRunBaker]

my 02 cents
EAST i had boston 1st but now i have milw ahead of bos
East
1 Milw
2 Bos
3 brook
4 mia
5 philly
6 cle
7 chi
8 atl
9 Cha
10 ny
11 det
12 wash
13 tor
14 orl
15 indy

Whoa! Why do you have the Raptors so low? Van Vleet and Siakam back healthy, Barnes 2nd year leap and the return of OG. I think this is a sure fire playoff team.

 

[j-man]

short anwser they lack star power


long anwser siakam took a step back last year van vleet is a top 30 player detroit is one of my slepplers do they still have a massive home court adv tor they couild be 7th but wash is improved if the bulls stay healhy they will make it for all the bashing i do on the honets they are always 500 and t young is a top 5 player

 

[ElUno20]

If you believe ESPN/Pelton’s statistical projections….

1. PHX - 49
2. DEN - 47.9
3. NOP - 47.6
4. MEM - 46.1
5. MIN - 45.7
6. LAC - 43.6
7. DAL - 43.1
8. GSW - 41.9

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/34684272/nba-preview-2022-23-stats-based-win-projections-all-30-teams-why-contenders-slipping

538: The Warriors suck.
ESPN: Hold my beer.

Wait is that real? 42 wins?

I'd be in on PHX unders. They have a dumpster fire brewing combined with Monty's leadership that took a hit at the end of the playoffs, it could be ugly.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

short anwser they lack star power


long anwser siakam took a step back last year van vleet is a top 30 player detroit is one of my slepplers do they still have a massive home court adv tor they couild be 7th but wash is improved if the bulls stay healhy they will make it for all the bashing i do on the honets they are always 500 and t young is a top 5 player

Ok you lost me here. Siakam had the best non-Kawhi year of his career last season as the #1 option and a huge bounce back season.

 

[Caspir]

What is the best site to use right now? It’s been a few years since I bet on sports, and only football back then. I’d like to play around a bit, but I know some places have great referral/bonus offers. Anyone got a favorite?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What is the best site to use right now? It’s been a few years since I bet on sports, and only football back then. I’d like to play around a bit, but I know some places have great referral/bonus offers. Anyone got a favorite?

I use mostly locals but for Offshore the best right now is BetOnline. Fast and easy payouts, big crypto bonuses.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

NBA Futures. (Used units simply to show how I broke down my two sprinkles)

* Orlando Magic - Over 27 Wins (1u)
* Orlando - Make Playoffs +1100 (.15u)
* Franz Wagner - Most Improved Player +6000 (.05u)

I think these Magic are going to surprise a lot of people this year and I dove into this one pretty good. Banchero’s game is made for this league, he’s physically mature, will benefit by more spacing than he had at Duke and I expect a seamless transition to this level. On top of that, he’s a perfect fit for what this team was missing in a 3/4 who can score amd create on the perimeter.

I expect several young players to make a leap this year. Cole Anthony should take a leap as he has a legendary work ethic and BBIQ of a 10-yr vet. Not the highest ceiling but a pure leader who provides value beyond the stat sheet.

Franz Wagner flew under the radar last year and if he continues allowing the game to slow down for him could become an impact player. I did not like him at this level coming out of the draft but the kid is a legit player. We don’t know what Suggs is yet and I was not high on him coming out of that draft slot either but he can still become a quality player.

Wendell Carter has quietly developed into a reliable big who continues to improve. Along with the return of a heathy Mo Bamba you have the makings of a solid frontcourt.

Hey we are talking about getting to 28 Wins…not competing for a Title! Sneaking into postseason is right there for them. Please join me in adopting a “second team” to root for all season.

 

[Brand Name]

Not legal in too many states but betway (which is NJ/COL/PA/IA/IN) with +250 on the Jazz on the ML tonight is nice. Have this as a touch under about 30% to hit (+234.44, so 29.9% if you want exact number). At +250 odds, that's +4.65% in EV. Remember, this is sub-30%. I'm not saying it's at all likely. It's just a good number. I'm a proponent of using the Kelly Criterion to determine wager size as opposed to units, which says to wager 0.93% of your bankroll on this play.

If I give a play, it has to be with that specific out, although anything above my number (here, the +234.44) I view as +EV; I'm just giving you the best book for your money given all else equal, and given it's a moneyline, that's constant (unlike potentially, say, a total, spread, etc.). I cannot suggest offshore ones because of the nature of my job. Even though most of the ones but Circa in this country are soft, square, and hate sharps...but I do what I can with my model for people.

 

[ElUno20]

Sixers/lakers line seem like opening night gifts.

 

[ElUno20]

Ok HRB. It's that time of year again where you payoff all our debt and then send us back into bankruptcy. Let's go.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Ok HRB. It's that time of year again where you payoff all our debt and then send us back into bankruptcy. Let's go.

* I played Sixers +4.5 about 12 minutes after the TL surgery was announced. Played Jaylen Over 20.5 pts tonight (may be 21.5 I don’t recall off hand)

* Played Under 225.5 Lakers/Warriors



I’m in a hotel after driving 12 hours today. I was going to post a detailed list of my Future at each numbers but maybe can next week. If you’re still looking for stuff these are some of my best…….

Grizzlies Under (this may be the closest there is to stealing money)….
Blazers Under
Hornets Under
Magic Over
Sacramento Over
Wolves Over/ Wolves Division (+260 or so)
Pistons Over (steamed up though)

See if you can get a good plus money on Grizz to miss playoffs too.
Damn I can’t even think of others and am meting friends for dinner. GL

 

[HomeRunBaker]

* Cleveland Over and Division Win too. I may have confused the Cavs and Wolves Division prices bc Cleve is +260

Wont be around tomorrow but made two plays…..

Knicks +6
Spurs +2

 

[Reverend]

Damn I can’t even think of others and am meting friends for dinner. GL

Uh, is this related to the subject matter of the thread…?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Uh, is this related to the subject matter of the thread…?

View attachment 56638

I’ve said it so many times now…….autocorrect is the bane of my life!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

* Cleveland Over and Division Win too. I may have confused the Cavs and Wolves Division prices bc Cleve is +260

Wont be around tomorrow but made two plays…..

Knicks +6
Spurs +2

Forgot to include Kings ML to what I played last night for today. First couple weeks of the season I’m just trusting my preseason numbers without any adjustments, aside from injury, so this time of year always seems to be more volatile. Knicks have been steamed down to +4 which is closer to where I have the game (2.5).

 

[benhogan]

* I played Sixers +4.5 about 12 minutes after the TL surgery was announced. Played Jaylen Over 20.5 pts tonight (may be 21.5 I don’t recall off hand)

* Played Under 225.5 Lakers/Warriors



I’m in a hotel after driving 12 hours today. I was going to post a detailed list of my Future at each numbers but maybe can next week. If you’re still looking for stuff these are some of my best…….

Grizzlies Under (this may be the closest there is to stealing money)….
Blazers Under
Hornets Under
Magic Over
Sacramento Over
Wolves Over/ Wolves Division (+260 or so)
Pistons Over (steamed up though)

See if you can get a good plus money on Grizz to miss playoffs too.
Damn I can’t even think of others and am meting friends for dinner. GL

what's up with the Grizzlies fade, was losing Slo-Mo that impactful?

Is everyone waiting to get a piece of them?

or

Is Ja going to be sent into the front row on a nightly basis after he clowns a few BIGs?

 

[Sam Ray Not]

what's up with the Grizzlies fade, was losing Slo-Mo that impactful?

Is everyone waiting to get a piece of them?

or

Is Ja going to be sent into the front row on a nightly basis after he clowns a few BIGs?

Biggest X factor for the Grizz is when JJJ returns, and in what form. I’ve heard “some time between November and January.” The extreme ends of that timetable could be the difference between a top 4 seed and the play-in.

 

[TripleOT]

Biggest X factor for the Grizz is when JJJ returns, and in what form. I’ve heard “some time between November and January.” The extreme ends of that timetable could be the difference between a top 4 seed and the play-in.

He’s not JJJ, but in his first start ever, Santi Aldama gave them 18 and 11 and a game leading plus 18 in their opener in 39 minutes, going 3-8 from deep. The Griz are apparently geniuses at getting teams to trade rotation contributors to them with the 30th pick. He looks to be a capable fill in, and should bolster their reserves when JJJ returns.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

what's up with the Grizzlies fade, was losing Slo-Mo that impactful?

Is everyone waiting to get a piece of them?

or

Is Ja going to be sent into the front row on a nightly basis after he clowns a few BIGs?

They lost a ton of their production this summer in Melton and Anderson, which is not being properly accounted for imo, JJJ will miss the first half of the season, and there is always the time Morant annually misses except this year they don’t have nearly the amount of depth to support his absence. They added Danny Green, who immediately tore up his knee, while Ziarie Williams and Dillon Brooks are already banged up with 81 games to go.

It’s honestly one of the stronger plays I’ve had since the year prior to the bubble. If Morant goes down early you’re looking at a team that could choose to keep JJJ sidelined and get involved in the Wemban game. A lot is going to have to go their way to beat their win total that was posted.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I played….

Tonight- Clippers Team Total Over 114.5

Tomorrow - Nuggets +6 over Warriors, Magic +8.5 over Hawks

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I played….

Tonight- Clippers Team Total Over 114.5

Tomorrow - Nuggets +6 over Warriors, Magic +8.5 over Hawks

Keep an eye on ole faithful…..Lakers in-game 4Q Unders in close games. Gold in the past and this teams shooting coupled with the snails pace in this setting may not be an auto play…..or it may be. Not always on here to update live bets but don’t $leep on these.

Locked Nuggets in at +6 last night now 4.5 while the Hawks +8.5 went the other way to 9 on the Cole Anthony illness.

Added these this morning…..

Wizards -2
Over 232 Pacers/Spurs
Over 218.5 Celtics/Heat
Rockets +6.5
Suns -5
Anthony Edwards Over 21.5 Pts

Edit: Added Celtics TT Over 110.5

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Really dont love the clipps offense (or lack thereof) but they'll be in most games because of their depth.

The lakers have missed a ton of 3s in both games but theyve been good looks. They just cant shoot

To bring this over here…..

Aside from shooting the basketball this Laker team has played two really good games against two of the leagues best teams. They are certainly a LeBron injury away from a complete collapse however they are playing hard and well, as you say creating good shots against the best teams and defending hard. The shooting will never be “good” but it should normalize from where it is today.

Where am I going with this? They are playing hungry and are 0-2. Sunday afternoon they host a very (imo) overrated Blazers team so while the world is watching college football, UFC and the baseball playoffs…..keep an eye on this opener when it gets posted Sat late morning/afternoon with the Lakers sitting on a big win at home against an ordinary at best team. I’m hoping for a -4.5 number with the public seemingly so down on them but I’ll lay up to 6.5 without a blink. At 7 I’ll blink then click.

 

[BigSoxFan]

To bring this over here…..

Aside from shooting the basketball this Laker team has played two really good games against two of the leagues best teams. They are certainly a LeBron injury away from a complete collapse however they are playing hard and well, as you say creating good shots against the best teams and defending hard. The shooting will never be “good” but it should normalize from where it is today.

Where am I going with this? They are playing hungry and are 0-2. Sunday afternoon they host a very (imo) overrated Blazers team so while the world is watching college football, UFC and the baseball playoffs…..keep an eye on this opener when it gets posted Sat late morning/afternoon with the Lakers sitting on a big win at home against an ordinary at best team. I’m hoping for a -4.5 number with the public seemingly so down on them but I’ll lay up to 6.5 without a blink. At 7 I’ll blink then click.

You had me at hello…

 

[HomeRunBaker]

You had me at hello…

Here’s one to watch for tomorrow. Similar to the Lakers 0-2 and in need of a win we have the Sixers also at 0-2 with two close losses against top teams. They host the Spurs tomorrow (6pm start) who will be on the back leg of a B2B and shouldn’t have much fight in them once they get down double digits. Line should be -14/-15 but if you don’t like laying that big maybe wait for the 1H and 1Q numbers to post. They all should be good regardless.

 

[RG33]

I am taking Celtics -2.5 and Pelicans -6.5 tonight @ CLT.

I think Celts will handle Heat, Grant going after Bam, the wings defending Herro/Duncan/Strus well enough, and Brogdon helping to solve the ball-handling issues against them last year.

Pelicans are a top 3 team in the NBA right now and undervalued to me. Their starting 5 is a beast. Charlotte without Bridges, despite a big opening night win, should be pretty easily handled.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Here’s one to watch for tomorrow. Similar to the Lakers 0-2 and in need of a win we have the Sixers also at 0-2 with two close losses against top teams. They host the Spurs tomorrow (6pm start) who will be on the back leg of a B2B and shouldn’t have much fight in them once they get down double digits. Line should be -14/-15 but if you don’t like laying that big maybe wait for the 1H and 1Q numbers to post. They all should be good regardless.

Thoughts on Spurs at Indy tonight? Pacers -1 but playing at home against a team that is tanking. What am I missing?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Thoughts on Spurs at Indy tonight? Pacers -1 but playing at home against a team that is tanking. What am I missing?

Careful on clsssifying teams as “tanking” especially this early in the year. The players on the floor are absolutely NOT tanking……all that stuff goes on with roster decisions and later on in the year instructions to the coach who to play and who to shut down. As far as the game I played the Over as this should be a wide open game the way the Pacers like with the Spurs not likely to argue.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Careful on clsssifying teams as “tanking” especially this early in the year. The players on the floor are absolutely NOT tanking……all that stuff goes on with roster decisions and later on in the year instructions to the coach who to play and who to shut down. As far as the game I played the Over as this should be a wide open game the way the Pacers like with the Spurs not likely to argue.

Yeah, I guess it's less about tanking and more about a team whose best player is Keldon Johnson on the road. The Spurs always do play hard but they have no useful depth. Feels like a trap game to me so I may just play the o/u instead.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yeah, I guess it's less about tanking and more about a team whose best player is Keldon Johnson on the road. The Spurs always do play hard but they have no useful depth. Feels like a trap game to me so I may just play the o/u instead.

BOOM!!!

I am taking Celtics -2.5 and Pelicans -6.5 tonight @ CLT.

I think Celts will handle Heat, Grant going after Bam, the wings defending Herro/Duncan/Strus well enough, and Brogdon helping to solve the ball-handling issues against them last year.

Pelicans are a top 3 team in the NBA right now and undervalued to me. Their starting 5 is a beast. Charlotte without Bridges, despite a big opening night win, should be pretty easily handled.

BOOM!! BOOM!!!

Keep an eye on ole faithful…..Lakers in-game 4Q Unders in close games. Gold in the past and this teams shooting coupled with the snails pace in this setting may not be an auto play…..or it may be. Not always on here to update live bets but don’t $leep on these.

Locked Nuggets in at +6 last night now 4.5 while the Hawks +8.5 went the other way to 9 on the Cole Anthony illness.

Added these this morning…..

Wizards -2
Over 232 Pacers/Spurs
Over 218.5 Celtics/Heat
Rockets +6.5
Suns -5
Anthony Edwards Over 21.5 Pts

Edit: Added Celtics TT Over 110.5

There was a time when 7-0 was looking good in the early games. Reads spot on first full slate of the season feels great but damn those end games were brutal! Horford’s 3 late offset the C’s dry spell but DAMN……Wiz, Magic and Rockets all with epic fails!

Meant Magic +8.5 in prior post. Probably should be more careful with wagers involved but hopefully someone read that as Hawks -8.5 and cashed! LOL!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Here’s one to watch for tomorrow. Similar to the Lakers 0-2 and in need of a win we have the Sixers also at 0-2 with two close losses against top teams. They host the Spurs tomorrow (6pm start) who will be on the back leg of a B2B and shouldn’t have much fight in them once they get down double digits. Line should be -14/-15 but if you don’t like laying that big maybe wait for the 1H and 1Q numbers to post. They all should be good regardless.

Also, the Spurs win tonight makes this an even greater setup for the early Sat night start. Number is -13.5 full game. Expect 1H to be -8 and 1Q -5

 

[BigSoxFan]

Also, the Spurs win tonight makes this an even greater setup for the early Sat night start. Number is -13.5 full game. Expect 1H to be -8 and 1Q -5

Yup. Good call. I’ll probably join you on that one.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

To bring this over here…..

Aside from shooting the basketball this Laker team has played two really good games against two of the leagues best teams. They are certainly a LeBron injury away from a complete collapse however they are playing hard and well, as you say creating good shots against the best teams and defending hard. The shooting will never be “good” but it should normalize from where it is today.

Where am I going with this? They are playing hungry and are 0-2. Sunday afternoon they host a very (imo) overrated Blazers team so while the world is watching college football, UFC and the baseball playoffs…..keep an eye on this opener when it gets posted Sat late morning/afternoon with the Lakers sitting on a big win at home against an ordinary at best team. I’m hoping for a -4.5 number with the public seemingly so down on them but I’ll lay up to 6.5 without a blink. At 7 I’ll blink then click.

Blazers with the OT win tonight plays perfectly for the Sunday afternoon set up on the Lakers. If I get the right number it’s max on all accounts and hit every kiosk at Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun until they tell me to stop. This could either be a very good or very bad road trip……with the Lakers determining a good chunk of my fate.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

FYI, I see Lakers opening at one offshore at -3 and another -3.5!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Played some Embiid Overs on the prop market for you degens who like that. Pts & P/R/A

 

[Brand Name]

Where do we start? I do props a lot, but hey, if you're not betting big amounts like a syndicate, those limits likely won't matter to you. Anyway, I figure I'll go by game. I don't always take overs, just an alarming quantity of them in SA/PHI I'd really rather not see with how many came in this game, likely just a fluke, since I have no bias, just play the numbers. Games (but not today, for future usage) will be ordered by the time of the opening tip, and from there, my favorite plays are listed therein, best first. Do not parlay these picks. If you want more for the other games, let me know. Submitting this now because it's about to start.

Spurs/76ers:

-Tyrese Maxey under 2.5 rebounds, +145 bet365. +124 internally, +9.64% +EV.
-Jeremy Sochan over 4.5 rebounds, -119 at any of Barstool/BetRivers/Unibet. -135 internally, +7.22% +EV.
-Tobias Harris under 2.5 assists, -105 at bet365 or betMGM. -120 internally, +6.56% +EV.
-Tre Jones over 3.5 rebounds, -118, FanDuel. -136 internally, +6.36% +EV.
-Joel Embiid over 27.5 points, -105 at MGM. -116 internally, +4.86% +EV.
-Devin Vassell over 14.5 points, -115, Pointsbet. -127 internally, +4.77% +EV.
-James Harden over 6.5 rebounds, -105, FanDuel. -116 internally, +4.71 +EV
-Jakob Poetl over 8.5 rebounds, -116, any of Barstool, BetRivers, Unibet. -127 internally, +4.26% +EV.

Played some Embiid Overs on the prop market for you degens who like that. Pts & P/R/A

Yep! That makes two of us...

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Played some Embiid Overs on the prop market for you degens who like that. Pts & P/R/A

Since I’m at the kiosks at Mohegan Sun decided to have some fun in markets I only have access to in the playoffs.

Sixers -31.5 (+920)
Embiid 35+ pts & Sixers Win (+380)

 

[BigSoxFan]

Ok, Spurs try too hard. May have to start focusing on Vassell point overs. Has all the shots in the world now. Potential for breakout year.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Played some Embiid Overs on the prop market for you degens who like that. Pts & P/R/A

Did good on Embiid but only needed the team to win the game for the +380 prop (above) to hit and get me even in the game. Still not a disaster but obv not good.

Played Lakers -3.5 for two-thirds of a lung with some bone marrow sprinkled on Lakers by 17-20 (+1125) and Lakers by 21+ (+675). Here’s to our health!!

 

[BigSoxFan]

Did good on Embiid but only needed the team to win the game for the +380 prop (above) to hit and get me even in the game. Still not a disaster but obv not good.

Played Lakers -3.5 for two-thirds of a lung with some bone marrow sprinkled on Lakers by 17-20 (+1125) and Lakers by 21+ (+675). Here’s to our health!!

7 point lead blown in last 2 minutes. Ouch.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

7 point lead blown in last 2 minutes. Ouch.

Right after I lost Lions +7 and Jaguars on final possession drives. Today was fun.

On a lighter note, who else has the Spurs and Jazz in the WC Finals? When did the year 2000 arrive?

Seriously though, I may be sticking with in-game stuff for the time being. Usually I trust my preseason numbers for the first 10-12 games before adjusting but this year is more bizarre than I’ve seen in awhile. Like I have no clue how to adjust teams like the Spurs, Jazz, etc and don’t want to be betting into these numbers without a clue until I see some type of market overreaction to one side or the other.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

7 point lead blown in last 2 minutes. Ouch.

To further illustrate how foolish this game we play is……..T-wolves up 18 with the ball and 1:30 to go -9.5

I’m in a poker hand so I check back to confirm the W……they won by 10 and thankfully made a 2 on the final possession. Almost another heartbreaker today

 

[BigSoxFan]

To further illustrate how foolish this game we play is……..T-wolves up 18 with the ball and 1:30 to go -9.5

I’m in a poker hand so I check back to confirm the W……they won by 10 and thankfully made a 2 on the final possession. Almost another heartbreaker today

Exactly why I hate betting spreads. Meanwhile, Danny’s boys just keep on winning…

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Exactly why I hate betting spreads. Meanwhile, Danny’s boys just keep on winning…

Here’s a little tip to keep an eye on…..

The Clippers will be using Kawhi off the bench but sitting him for the first 12-16 minutes of the game prior to him taking his normal rotation as a form of load management. This could present some good live betting opportunities if numbers aren’t adjusted.

They are currently down 40-22 at home to the Suns and +16.5 so waiting to see if it moves once Kawhi is inserted.