Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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Two of the three probably going to wait for injury reports, they are Orlando and Brooklyn.

The one I’m really waiting on is hoping to get +10 on the Hornets versus Knicks in a great flat spot for NY coming off 2OT win and leaving for a west coast swing the next day.
I see Hornets +9.5 on DraftKings currently.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I see Hornets +9.5 on DraftKings currently.
I’d grab that if I could. I don’t have access on my locals sites and BetOnline doesn’t have it yet.

I don’t trust the Hornets in closing a game out and the alt line wouldn’t payout enough……maybe a sprinkle (5-10% of play) on Double Result, Char/NY and Char/Char if you can get over +700 on each. Knicks TT Under or Hornets TT Over should also be value here but I likely won’t mess with those markets.
 
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BigSoxFan

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Totally kicking myself for not going in on Cavs after Celtics went to OT. Line moved like 5 points already although Mitchell is iffy so who knows. Just feels like a game that will be very hard for the Celtics to win.
 

Red Averages

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Totally kicking myself for not going in on Cavs after Celtics went to OT. Line moved like 5 points already although Mitchell is iffy so who knows. Just feels like a game that will be very hard for the Celtics to win.
Hope you passed. All it took was a few members of SoSH to write this team off for the year, including one particular countrian indicator, to see a far better effort and better shooting….
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Hope you passed. All it took was a few members of SoSH to write this team off for the year, including one particular countrian indicator, to see a far better effort and better shooting….
SoSH and especially game thread SoSH is as solid of a contrarian indicator as all the guys at the poker table agreeing on a side. That’s only my observation.
 

BigSoxFan

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Hope you passed. All it took was a few members of SoSH to write this team off for the year, including one particular countrian indicator, to see a far better effort and better shooting….
I did pass and now I feel extra sad
 

HomeRunBaker

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I hit the +10 on Hornets this morning. Seeing it beginning to move down to 9.5 some places. If you’re playing I’d get it asap. GL

Haven’t touched others yet.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I went +10, 1st Q Cha Ml, half Cha ML, and a sprinkle on game ML
Let’s get it!!

Wish I pulled the trigger on Orlando +7 they are now +2 after the injury reports came out with Giannis and Jrue out of the lineup. Here I was worrying about the Magic, ugh.
 

Mloaf71

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That 2nd quarter wasn’t a whole lot of fun. Hayward playing zero D and standing around ball watching is worse than I remember when he was on the C’s.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That 2nd quarter wasn’t a whole lot of fun. Hayward playing zero D and standing around ball watching is worse than I remember when he was on the C’s.
This game wasn’t about the Hornets it was all about the Knicks spot and inability to focus for 48 minutes while playing down to the competition. I did warn you not to watch it though lol. Bingo Bango!!!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Boom hit the ML too! Thank you HRB. Good spot after that Celts game!
I’m here to (try and) help! I should make a long diatribe about how situational spots in this league are much more powerful than any lower ranking, home court edge, etc etc.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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I’m here to (try and) help! I should make a long diatribe about how situational spots in this league are much more powerful than any lower ranking, home court edge, etc etc.
You’re definitely slowly educating guys like me.

Not to obligate you without a bottle of whisky by your side, but it would be interesting to understand how you divide up the NBA season (i.e. you were in heavy early, backed off leading into the all star break, etc) and the value added situations you seek out (Sunday day games, beginning of road trips, etc).

I think those two spots trip up amateur gamblers like me more than anything. I definitely don’t take those external elements into consideration when considering a spot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You’re definitely slowly educating guys like me.

Not to obligate you without a bottle of whisky by your side, but it would be interesting to understand how you divide up the NBA season (i.e. you were in heavy early, backed off leading into the all star break, etc) and the value added situations you seek out (Sunday day games, beginning of road trips, etc).

I think those two spots trip up amateur gamblers like me more than anything. I definitely don’t take those external elements into consideration when considering a spot.
I could sit at a bar and discuss this stuff for an entire night. I spoke last month about the great Alan Boston who influenced me years ago so I’ll steal one of his lines to answer this….”I don’t know, I just know.”

By this, I mean there will be times when you may expect me to play on a team opening a long road trip or fade a team returning home in their first game and I don’t. Why would I play one spot and not the other when they seem identical? “I don’t know, I just know.”

This is similar to poker in that you have gone through so many repititions and are present during the process. When you're present, it feels like everything is feedback for you to learn and grow from. You are not only going through the motions. If you want to use a basketball analogy, and I’ll use an example I’m thinking of as I’m watching this Lakers game, think Ben Simmons as a guy who ISN’T present then a guy with a similar skillset but less talent in Jared Vanderbilt who IS present and has been since he entered the league. One player isn’t growing while the other is improving every day.

I’ve always been present in anything I’ve done. I can identify when the learning process began. I was in my late teens/early 20’s for a couple years and began booking sports bets with 20-25 clients. I’d be next to my landline phone (LOL!) until 1pm on Sundays in the fall then I’d fly down to the sports bar and meet buddies to watch the games.

Believe me when I tell you I’d be petrified on that drive because each week everyone would be on the same team or teams in flat bets, parlays and teasers…..and it was always a team I’d like too! I’d arrive at the bar expecting to get destroyed……yet week after week those teams wouldn’t cover and many times wouldn’t even cover their teaser number. I was present during this time and began realizing that the human brain was not designed to profitably handicap NFL football! So I began looking at these games and figuring out the why. Why is the team everyone is betting on seemingly always the wrong side? Then I did this during basketball season and it was even MORE powerful. This experience, or repetitions, led me to begin analyzing these games as a contrarian. Put it this way…..every single bettor who played with me would have been on the Knicks tonight for no other reason than they were the better team and on fire.
 

HomeRunBaker

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NCAAB Conference Tournament Tips:

* Much like preseason tournaments these neutral site events historically favor Unders, especially Championship Games which often turn into turtle pace games. If you think a game is going to be high scoring, you may want to reconsider.

* 25 games today, Under beat the closing line in 20 of them (80%).

* 5 Conference Championship Games today. Under beat the closing number in all 5 (100%) and most weren’t close.

* Watch for ‘dogs who have already won a game in their tournament and will not earn an at-large big when playing team who have already secured a berth. Motivation matters a shit ton in these 2nd/3rd round games.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got good one here tonight.

* Celtics -10

Ideal get well spot for C’s wrapping up a home stand coming off 3 straight losses before a long road trip. Just as the Knicks spot last night suggested the team would not be focused for 48 minutes this spot suggests a fully focused and sustained effort. Not only is this a great spot for Boston but a less than optimal one for Portland having won their last two (@Orlando & @Detroit) as they approach the middle of their long road trip.

Wouldn’t even mind if Nurkic returns as there would be an integration adjustment and likely a slower pace to a Blazers offense already missing Simons.
 

zak1013

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Jul 14, 2005
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* Watch for ‘dogs who have already won a game in their tournament and will not earn an at-large big when playing team who have already secured a berth. Motivation matters a shit ton in these 2nd/3rd round games.
Based on the above, seems like Wake Forest, Providence, Pitt, Ole Miss, Colorado St all decent spots this afternoon. Any of those stand out for you?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Wouldn't Pitt and Providence not meet the criteria, as they are both projected to be in the tournament at the moment?
Not only that but Providence hasn’t played a game in this tournament yet. I’m looking for teams that have built up equity in their conference tournament run against a less than fully motivated opponent so the Friars wouldn’t fit that bill. (Think 2004 Sox ALCS and the emotional jolt from winning G4 to give them hope to push through)

I did play Ole Miss +11.5 this morning as that’s an enormous number for a game that should be in the 50’s/60’s. Still on fence with Wake as they will have ton of local support as the defacto home team in this event but was wanting a bigger number. Considering the Rams also.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Back to NBA for a minute…..got another good one tonight.

* Under 235 Warriors/Grizzlies

I can’t even get to 230 in this one so not sure what’s going on with this number…..can’t imagine it still around here long. Grizz offense took a nosedive once Adams went out and still without Morant’s firepower/pace. First game back off a trip is generally a little slower for the home team as well and Jenkins gets this team to defend. My concen is in the Warriors NOT competing defensively on the road but between the Grizz pace and Draymond in lineup this shouldn’t be that big of an issue.
 

BigSoxFan

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Back to NBA for a minute…..got another good one tonight.

* Under 235 Warriors/Grizzlies

I can’t even get to 230 in this one so not sure what’s going on with this number…..can’t imagine it still around here long. Grizz offense took a nosedive once Adams went out and still without Morant’s firepower/pace. First game back off a trip is generally a little slower for the home team as well and Jenkins gets this team to defend. My concen is in the Warriors NOT competing defensively on the road but between the Grizz pace and Draymond in lineup this shouldn’t be that big of an issue.
Draymond and Brooks hate each other’s guts. Any prop bets you like?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Draymond and Brooks hate each other’s guts. Any prop bets you like?
Not enough time in the day to dig into these. 9-thousand college games with Totals being absolutely hammered so trying to get ahead of these. Some Unders moved 7-8 pts off the overnights….crazy out there. NBA done, Indian Wells, two regional MMA promotions today, 3 tomorrow and props coming out today for UFC on Sat……

Oh and mother in law in town and wife wants to go to the beach. At least I got that delayed until tomorrow lol.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
648
Back to NBA for a minute…..got another good one tonight.

* Under 235 Warriors/Grizzlies

I can’t even get to 230 in this one so not sure what’s going on with this number…..can’t imagine it still around here long. Grizz offense took a nosedive once Adams went out and still without Morant’s firepower/pace. First game back off a trip is generally a little slower for the home team as well and Jenkins gets this team to defend. My concen is in the Warriors NOT competing defensively on the road but between the Grizz pace and Draymond in lineup this shouldn’t be that big of an issue.
230 by halftime?:confused:
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
648
The Warriors were, uh…..very accommodating. That was the risk. Here we go with more FT’s to eliminate any chance to sneak in under the number.

Edit: Ball don’t lie.
All joking aside that game should have gone under. A fluke 48 point Q, Poole playing until the final buzzer, Kenny Lofton coming out of baseball to hit a 3 and still almost came back to our number.

I bought back in at 245 and 251 so ended up Ok in the end (granted I got worried and cashed out the 245 early!)

As always thanks for the tip.
 

BigSoxFan

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The Warriors were, uh…..very accommodating. That was the risk. Here we go with more FT’s to eliminate any chance to sneak in under the number.

Edit: Ball don’t lie.
Turns out I teased up to 245.5 so I snuck it in. Thought for sure it was a goner.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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Jul 21, 2005
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NCAAB Conference Tournament Tips:

* Much like preseason tournaments these neutral site events historically favor Unders, especially Championship Games which often turn into turtle pace games. If you think a game is going to be high scoring, you may want to reconsider.
54 point first half for Vermont/U Lowell championship game with a pregame O/U of 141.5. Nice
 

HomeRunBaker

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54 point first half for Vermont/U Lowell championship game with a pregame O/U of 141.5. Nice
Very good. Did you do same in the MEAC Final? Under was pounded in this one I got in when it was halfway down as soon as it became available to me. Mostly 1H but some full game too.

A lot of them later today. Not playing them blind but a couple good spots. SWAC, Big West & Mountain West stick out best.
 

BigSoxFan

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Thoughts on Dubs at home against Bucks? Giannis questionable and feels like a motivated Dubs team comes out at home.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thoughts on Dubs at home against Bucks? Giannis questionable and feels like a motivated Dubs team comes out at home.
Warriors at home? Yay
Warriors on road? Nay

Some teams you can’t overthink or else you will lose both your mind and your money.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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Very good. Did you do same in the MEAC Final? Under was pounded in this one I got in when it was halfway down as soon as it became available to me. Mostly 1H but some full game too.

A lot of them later today. Not playing them blind but a couple good spots. SWAC, Big West & Mountain West stick out best.
Yes, I played MEAC as well, got it at 144.5 which was down a bit from when I had first looked at it this AM.