Pedroia Predictions

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
9,289
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Let’s not go crazy here. I wouldn’t accept a gimpy knee for anything less than 75 mil. And I would expect strangers to cry about my misfortune.
 

Byrdbrain

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,288
Sure but having damaged said knee would you then walk away from $25M?
I wouldn't and I highly doubt Pedey will.

He'll continue to try to come back until he can't do it any more.
 

patoaflac

Member
SoSH Member
May 6, 2016
1,323
As many have said correctly this is a business. However, this doesn’t impede Pedroia to have dignity and be intelligent, which I’m sure he and the owners are.
Pedroia acts like Dempster and he agrees with Henry that those 25M would be paid to him for his “advice” in whatever. MLBPA can’t say anything because he “retired”, Pedroia continues to be a beloved Sox forever, and the luxury tax is avoided.
Comprenden amigos?
 

Myt1

the FRESH maker
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 13, 2006
27,488
South Boston
What makes that course of action dignified? Does he wear full morning dress and a monocle when he winks to seal the deal?
 

Byrdbrain

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,288
As many have said correctly this is a business. However, this doesn’t impede Pedroia to have dignity and be intelligent, which I’m sure he and the owners are.
Pedroia acts like Dempster and he agrees with Henry that those 25M would be paid to him for his “advice” in whatever. MLBPA can’t say anything because he “retired”, Pedroia continues to be a beloved Sox forever, and the luxury tax is avoided.
Comprenden amigos?
That isn't how any of this works.

Edit: I'm sure the rest of MLB would be just fine with that kind of "arrangement" and it wouldn't be seen as a blatant attempt to circumvent the CBA.
 

patoaflac

Member
SoSH Member
May 6, 2016
1,323
Of course all businesses work like that in today’s world (who’s being naive Kay?) and of course all of us “insiders” will never know.
 
Last edited:

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
9,289
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Of course all businesses work like that in today’s world (who’s being naive Kay?) and of course all of us “insiders” will never know.
It does seem to explain those dozens of mlb players who just last year retired early and gave up salary. Amazing none of us picked up on that until you did.
 

RIrooter09

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2008
4,409
Not what I said. But the team seems to be viewing this as a hard cap and doesn't want to give up the positioning
That’s the team’s choice. Not sure why it should factor into Pedroia’s decision to forego millions of dollars he’s entitled to.
 

judyb

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
4,371
What some of us want is for the team to find a way to pay Pedroia all the money they owe him to do something he's capable of actually doing and that won't cause luxury tax penalties that would make them want to avoid paying players who are capable of playing.
 

Byrdbrain

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,288
That would be great, it would also be a violation of the CBA and would never be allowed.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,064
The wrong side of the bridge....
That would be great, it would also be a violation of the CBA and would never be allowed.
So how does that work? It seems like retired players get jobs with their old teams all the time. Is it only the fact that he would be retiring with money left on his contract that would prevent the Sox from hiring him for an FO job? Or would there have to be some kind of waiting period? Or is it the fact that they'd be paying him much more than the normal salary for a job of that kind?
 
Last edited:

Soxfan in Fla

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2001
7,055
It seems some people don’t understand the only way the Sox are getting relief is if Pedey retires and walks away from the rest of the money he is owed. It is unrealistic and unfair for anyone to expect him to do that.
 

bosox79

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
9,971
It seems some people don’t understand the only way the Sox are getting relief is if Pedey retires and walks away from the rest of the money he is owed. It is unrealistic and unfair for anyone to expect him to do that.
They can't agree to a buy out?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,519
Maine
They can't agree to a buy out?
A buy out probably still counts against the luxury tax where a retirement would not.

The only way I see a retire-and-we'll-pay-you-anyway-to-consult/coach deal happening is if it is Pedroia who decides he's done. If he goes to Dombrowski or Henry (or both) and says he wants to retire, I think then they offer to make good on what he's otherwise giving up by hiring him in an honorary way like they have with Tek and Pedro and others. There's no way the Red Sox broach the topic of retirement themselves.

I think if they reach a point where they are going to release him, they may give him fair warning so that he could consider retirement (make it his own call rather than theirs), but they would never be the first to use the word retirement. Ever. It would be too transparent and too uncouth to do so.
 
Jul 5, 2018
126
So how does that work? It seems like retired players get jobs with their old teams all the time. Is it only the fact that he would be retiring with money left on his contract that would prevent the Sox from hiring him for an FO job? Or would there have to be some kind of waiting period? Or is it the fact that they'd be paying him much more than the normal salary for a job of that kind?
There are players that don't have some type of a position with their club after retirement and we have no idea what Pedroia wants to do. He doesn't need the money and, as I posted before, he has young children. If I was him, I would love becoming a soccer mom after so many years of being away. ASU is only 25 minutes away so he could also do some coaching like Tony Gwynn did.

Why do people assume Pedroia would be excited about some token job in Boston's FO?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,519
Maine
Why do people assume Pedroia would be excited about some token job in Boston's FO?
Why are you assuming this token job requires him to be anywhere but at home with his kids if that's where he wants to be? I think most people are suggesting this "job" as a gesture of appreciation by the team if he chooses to retire with money on the table, not as enticement to do so.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
12,635
Ideally, Pedroia will recover and come back strong later this season and make this whole discussion moot, but things aren't looking that way right now. But who knows?

This article from last year about David Wright seems of interest to this discussion about injured players retiring with a lot of money left on their contracts.

Insurance is a big factor in some teams working out settlements on players retiring due to injuries. The Red Sox did not insure Sandoval's horrid contract. No idea if they got insurance on Pedroia's or not.

"There are still two years remaining on an eight-year, $138 million contract Wright signed after 2012, when Wright was a perennial all-star and one of the best players in the sport. Wright is set to earn $15 million in 2019 and $12 million in 2020, and if he technically retires he wouldn’t get that money.

You’d be hard pressed to find a major league player walking away from that kind of guaranteed money. The most recent example was pitcher Gil Meche, who forfeited $12 million when he retired in 2011, the final year of his contract.

For Wright to receive the rest of his contract the Mets could simply release him. But a possible scenario is to continue what has basically happened the last two-plus years, for Wright to stay on the Mets’ 40-man roster while unavailable. It’s not so restrictive during the season, when Wright can be stashed on the 60-day disabled list which frees his 40-man spot for someone else. But during the offseason, when building the roster, there is no DL, so the Mets would effectively be limited to 39 spots.

Keeping a disabled Wright on the 40-man roster would also allow the Mets to receive insurance to cover the bulk of Wright’s salary, which they have done the past two years. Insurance was on the hook for 75 percent of Wright’s $20 million salary in 2017, and mostly the same in 2018, save for the pro-rated portion of Wright’s salary the Mets will pay for the six days he is active, roughly $642,000.

Under this scenario the Mets would only pay $6.75 million of the $27 million remaining due Wright, with insurance picking up the remaining $21.25 million. The parties could agree to a buyout arrangement of some sort which could alleviate the Mets’ roster crunch, presumably at some financial cost.

Prince Fielder was in this position after his career ended in July 2016 with a neck injury. He remained on the Rangers’ 40-man roster until October 2017, with insurance paying a portion of his salary. With three more years left on Fielder’s contract, the Rangers reached a settlement with the insurance company and released Fielder.

Not all major league contracts are insured, for various reasons. The Red Sox did not insure their five-year, $95 million contract with Pablo Sandoval, who was a colossal bust in Boston and was injured for all but three games in 2016.

“The fact is that it’s a case-by-case basis, and we have insurance on some players, not all players,” Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said on WEEI in 2016. “Collecting on an insurance is not the easiest thing and then you have a debate on how much insurance and when do you collect? We do it on a case-by-case basis, and we did not do it for Pablo.”
 

BroodsSexton

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2006
8,569
guam
Why are you assuming this token job requires him to be anywhere but at home with his kids if that's where he wants to be? I think most people are suggesting this "job" as a gesture of appreciation by the team if he chooses to retire with money on the table, not as enticement to do so.
Is it common for teams to engage in what amounts to no-show fraudulent employment practices to circumvent the CBA? These are huge businesses. It would surprise me to learn that this is a real thing.
 
Jul 5, 2018
126
Why are you assuming this token job requires him to be anywhere but at home with his kids if that's where he wants to be? I think most people are suggesting this "job" as a gesture of appreciation by the team if he chooses to retire with money on the table, not as enticement to do so.
For Pedroia to be kept "whole", he would be receiving a million dollar check in the mail every month. That's pretty good pay for a stay at home dad.
 

Byrdbrain

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,288
Is it common for teams to engage in what amounts to no-show fraudulent employment practices to circumvent the CBA? These are huge businesses. It would surprise me to learn that this is a real thing.
Of course it isn't.
Some players have token jobs after they retire like Pedro and Varitek but they aren't being paid very much.

The people like the post above saying he should be paid $1M/month to do nothing have no idea what they are talking about.

Alex Cora made $800k last year, there is zero chance the team could get away with "hiring" Pedey for many multiples of that to be a "consultant".
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,519
Maine
For Pedroia to be kept "whole", he would be receiving a million dollar check in the mail every month. That's pretty good pay for a stay at home dad.
No one's suggesting that. Why can't it be something along the lines of whatever money he is giving up, paid with interest for the rest of his life to be a "consultant" and make a few appearances a year at spring training or in the Legends box at Fenway?

Gray Eagle brought up David Wright. He and the Mets agreed to something along those lines, though he didn't retire, he was released (so his salary counts for the Mets who are no where near in danger of paying luxury taxes). He deferred a bunch of his 2019 salary and took a "special assistant" job with the team. Of course, his contract already had a boatload of deferred money from his 2012-2018 salaries, so it wasn't a leap for him to defer some more.
 
Jul 5, 2018
126
No one's suggesting that. Why can't it be something along the lines of whatever money he is giving up, paid with interest for the rest of his life to be a "consultant" and make a few appearances a year at spring training or in the Legends box at Fenway?

Gray Eagle brought up David Wright. He and the Mets agreed to something along those lines, though he didn't retire, he was released (so his salary counts for the Mets who are no where near in danger of paying luxury taxes). He deferred a bunch of his 2019 salary and took a "special assistant" job with the team. Of course, his contract already had a boatload of deferred money from his 2012-2018 salaries, so it wasn't a leap for him to defer some more.
What you're suggesting is some type of restructuring of his contract. Based on my research, the rules are pretty vague, but it appears a restructure or buyout has to result in the same NPV to Pedroia. Whether or not they give him a ridiculously overpaid job is irrelevant to any agreement they reach regarding the contract.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 24, 2008
3,570
No one's suggesting that. Why can't it be something along the lines of whatever money he is giving up, paid with interest for the rest of his life to be a "consultant" and make a few appearances a year at spring training or in the Legends box at Fenway?

Gray Eagle brought up David Wright. He and the Mets agreed to something along those lines, though he didn't retire, he was released (so his salary counts for the Mets who are no where near in danger of paying luxury taxes). He deferred a bunch of his 2019 salary and took a "special assistant" job with the team. Of course, his contract already had a boatload of deferred money from his 2012-2018 salaries, so it wasn't a leap for him to defer some more.
But isn't the only reason that anyone cares about the money with Pedroia because of the Sox being right up against the Luxury Tax cap? No one cares about the dollars otherwise. The David Wright scenario doesn't being applied to Pedroia doesn't help at all for luxury tax calculations. It did help the Mets with a 40 man roster crunch during the offseasons, and they saved about $6M in up front money for their payroll that was deferred, but that's inconsequential when skirting the luxury tax is the real issue.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
3,490
So Pedroia is out on rehab Thurs and Nunez starts his today. Holt is more iffy as he apparently has some sort of shoulder issue now.


Chris Cotillo‏Verified account @ChrisCotillo
Eduardo Nunez will begin rehab assignment with Pawtucket tomorrow. Dustin Pedroia will start rehab assignment with Portland on Thursday.

11:49 AM - 28 Apr 2019

What exactly is the plan here with all these guys? Can this team- with the start they've had- really roster Pedroia and give him ABs? We're looking right down the barrel of having a 7 - 9 of Pedroia, Vaz, JBJ. Not great.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,519
Maine
What exactly is the plan here with all these guys? Can this team- with the start they've had- really roster Pedroia and give him ABs? We're looking right down the barrel of having a 7 - 9 of Pedroia, Vaz, JBJ. Not great.
Assuming Pedroia is cleared to play by the docs and says he's good to go, I think the only way he doesn't get regular playing time at this point is if Chavis makes it impossible for the team to send him down (and as exciting as his HRs have been, he's not there yet). Otherwise, they're going to give Pedey every opportunity to be a contributor. And Nunez and Holt will be the utility guys they were expected to be at the start of the year, and Chavis and Lin will be the depth stashed in AAA.

If by Memorial Day, Pedey is still hitting sub-Mendoza and/or missing every other game to "rest" or protect his knees, the team will be faced with a hard decision. But I really don't think it happens until June at the earliest, no matter what the team does as a whole in the meantime.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 19, 2009
4,468
I don't want to see either come up until they start hitting consistently. But I fear we'll be treated to MLB rehab.
If I had to guess, both Pedey and Eduardo come back up, Chavis and Lin go back down, and they see if either of the starters has anything to offer for a few weeks. If they get hurt again, it's a pretty easy thing to throw them back on the IL. If they are awful, they can at least DFA Núñez and bring one of the two backups back up to get playing time at the position for as long as is needed. If they decide to throw the towel in on the season, I think Núñez still gets DFA'd and either Chavis or Lin becomes the starting 2B or part of a platoon with Pedroia if he can play in the field for a couple games a week.

When/if Holt is ready, he can go back to his supersub role, including occasional starts at 2B when the matchups make sense or if someone needs a day.

Bottom line, I don't think Núñez makes it to the end of the season either way unless he's on a 60-day IL stint.
 

Hank Scorpio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 1, 2013
5,158
Devers isn’t hitting for power and has been atrocious on defense. They should look at sending him down.
 

Byrdbrain

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,288
Devers isn’t hitting for power and has been atrocious on defense. They should look at sending him down.
This is something that won't be happening.
He's hasn't hit for power yet but he's hitting 296 with a 757 OPS.
Oh and no one they would put at third would likely field any better.
 

nvalvo

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
16,356
Rogers Park
Devers isn’t hitting for power and has been atrocious on defense. They should look at sending him down.
His walk rate is way up. His strikeout rate is way down. His hard-hit rate is up. His launch angles were very low early in the season, but are trending up as he's getting more balls in the air in the last week or two.

I think patience is warranted.
 

bosox79

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
9,971
Devers isn’t hitting for power and has been atrocious on defense. They should look at sending him down.
2018: .240/.298/.433, 7.8% BB rate, 24.7% K rate in 490 PA.
2019: .297/.389/.367, 12.3% BB rate, 16.7% K rate in 114 PA.

He's not going anywhere. The power will come.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,519
Maine
Pedroia is 4 / 16 so far on his rehab. All singles. 2K/0BB. His 10 days are up on Sunday.
I was at the game yesterday. Three roll-over grounders to the left side, one that the SS booted, and a K. Had a bulky brace on the knee and was not all that quick out of the box or down the line. He reached on the ball the SS booted, but I think if the SS had corralled the ball in front of him rather than kicking it away toward CF, he might have had a chance to throw Pedey out despite the bobble. Nothing all that encouraging, to be honest.
 

mfried

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 23, 2005
1,502
The Pedey story seems sad. I don't see how he sticks the 25-man roster when Holt returns.
 

Byrdbrain

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,288
So I don't think the 10 or 20 day rehab thing is really going to be an issue.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
12,687
I think Remy (a 2Bman who went through similar travails) may be the only guy that can get the message through at this point: "it's over."
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/05/13/red-sox-take-dustin-pedroia-off-rehab-assignment-because-knee-soreness/6XQLGskCKyptmR7Ppc2LHO/story.html

The Red Sox on Monday returned second baseman Dustin Pedroia from his injury rehabilitation assignment with Double A Portland for what was termed “minor” soreness in his left knee.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
9,289
Miami (oh, Miami!)
It's too bad. But I'm sort of received this hasn't turned into a Nunez-esque stinker of a season that might have had a larger part in the team's early misfortunes.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,519
Maine

PeteAbe suggests that the latest shutdown of Pedroia is about resetting the clock more than anything. Plausible but it's hard to get past the fact that he has yet to last more than a week getting even semi-regular playing time without having soreness, swelling, or discomfort. Just doesn't bode well at all.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
12,687

PeteAbe suggests that the latest shutdown of Pedroia is about resetting the clock more than anything. Plausible but it's hard to get past the fact that he has yet to last more than a week getting even semi-regular playing time without having soreness, swelling, or discomfort. Just doesn't bode well at all.
His contract is guaranteed and he's currently not taking up a roster space they need. So there's no harm in letting him keep trying. But there's very little reason for optimism.