Pedroia Predictions

Adrian's Dome

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Beckett also pitched a crap ton more innings than Sale in both the regular season and playoffs.

Given what we see from Sale this year on top of August 1 onward last year - would you take the 2018 over the 2007 team in a best of 7? I wouldn’t. Beckett gave that team the ace that the 2018 team didn’t have. If we are taking a series from April-end of July sure. But the current / second half of 2018 Sale I think skews this toward 2007.
The 2018 team proved they didn't need an ace. They didn't even try in September and still dominated, plus they buzzsawed through two of the better teams in recent memory to get to the WS, mostly without their 200+ ERA guy and with their HoF closer choking.

I take the better pitcher, SSS be damned, and Chris Sale is a better pitcher than Josh Beckett was.

I still don't think it's particularly close at all, unless we're doing infield drills.
 

j44thor

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The beginning of the end was like in 2016
Yep he has become a detriment to the team simply because they have no idea if/when he can play and for how long when he does.

He should really consider riding off in the sunset before his health is permanently impacted, if it isn't already.
Would also greatly help the Sox with roster construction/flexibility.
 
Jul 5, 2018
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Yep he has become a detriment to the team simply because they have no idea if/when he can play and for how long when he does.

He should really consider riding off in the sunset before his health is permanently impacted, if it isn't already.
Would also greatly help the Sox with roster construction/flexibility.
Pedroia won't walk away from $35M+ and neither would anyone else. It's a shame, but it's unlikely he can help the team moving forward. The Sox will eventually need to release him and find a better solution than Nunes for 2B.
 

patoaflac

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Thought they would have sent Erasmo back down and called up Lin?
Of course, today an off day, yesterday Brasier, Hembree and Workman threw less than 15 pitches and on Tuesday only Erasmo pitched. You need more people on the bench in case anyone gets injured or for pinch running or hitting.
 
Jul 5, 2018
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Ryan Dempster says hi (13 mil back in '14)
Yeah, I was aware of Dempster walking away from the 2nd year of his contract. It was very much an exception to the rule. If you were Pedroia, would you retire?

The current situation is untenable for the Sox. They don't know if, and how long he can play. They also don't If he would even be an above replacement level player given his age and balky knee. If he has another year of mostly being on the IL, it would be logical for them to release him.
 

TeddyBallgame9

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Yeah, I was aware of Dempster walking away from the 2nd year of his contract. It was very much an exception to the rule. If you were Pedroia, would you retire?

The current situation is untenable for the Sox. They don't know if, and how long he can play. They also don't If he would even be an above replacement level player given his age and balky knee. If he has another year of mostly being on the IL, it would be logical for them to release him.
If it plays out that way, maybe he just retires - giving up what’s left of his contract - then works as a “Special Assistant to Baseball Ops” kinda deal in which he can re-coup some of the money he leaves on the table. I have a hard time seeing him getting released, signing a spring invite type of contract, and putting on a D-backs uni just to prove he’s not done.
 

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Of course, today an off day, yesterday Brasier, Hembree and Workman threw less than 15 pitches and on Tuesday only Erasmo pitched. You need more people on the bench in case anyone gets injured or for pinch running or hitting.
Or what if they are winning late and Nunez is playing second base? Bring Vazquez in for defense?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Or what if they are winning late and Nunez is playing second base? Bring Vazquez in for defense?
I'm ready for the Lin era to begin. In all seriousness... his SSS at the ML level has been pretty good at the plate and his defense is significantly better than Nunez. A .725 OPS would likely be above average for a second baseman, no? Plus.. .positiional versatility.... why wasn't Swihart given more time here?
 

Humphrey

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So now no one on the current 25 that can play second competently and much tougher to pinch hit for the catcher (one of which cannot hit at all) because you don't have a backup. And 13 fucking pitchers. How many days until Holt is back?
 

Salem's Lot

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He’s not walking away from $35 million. He’ll go on the 60 day DL for the rest of the season, then show up for spring training in 2020 and 2021 to fail his physical, remain on the 60 day DL, and go home. The same thing happened to Jerry Remy in 1986.
 

SoFloSoxFan

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Guaranteed contracts are guaranteed. When the Red Sox signed it they understood the risks. If he can't play then they deal with the down side of his contract and pay it while he is injured. There should be no realistic thought that Pedroia should retire to forfeit his contract.
 

tims4wins

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Pedroia's contract was somewhat of a bargain compared to his market, but it was still a bad contract for the Sox.

Hope Sale's contract story doesn't end the same way.
 

donutogre

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He’s not walking away from $35 million. He’ll go on the 60 day DL for the rest of the season, then show up for spring training in 2020 and 2021 to fail his physical, remain on the 60 day DL, and go home. The same thing happened to Jerry Remy in 1986.
While it's absolutely within his rights to do this, I just don't see it going down like that. I understand the massive financial incentive to do so... but I also feel like I can't remember many examples of a player stringing things along for more than two years when it is clear he can't play anymore.

You mention Remy, which I did not know about having been 5 years old then. But, in modern time, I feel like I can recall at least a handful of players who chose to hang it up rather than go through something like that. I feel like it can't be that uncommon for players to have a few years left in a contract left who are physically unable to play... but maybe this is fairly common and I just don't notice because I can't follow every team's roster...
 

Salem's Lot

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Except Remy needed the income. Pedroia has already made tens of millions.
Who are we to say that someone else has made “enough money”? John Henry has made a lot of money as well. If Pedroia was putting up MVP seasons he wouldn’t have the right to re-negotiate, so it goes both ways. I’d collect every nickel of that money if I were him.
 

SoFloSoxFan

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Jacoby Ellsbury is still being paid.

Should he retire when the Yankees owe him 50m and he hasn't played since 2017 in order to be fair to the New York Yankees organization?
 
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Jul 5, 2018
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Jacoby Ellsbury is still being paid.

Should he retire when the Yankees owe him 50m and he hasn't played since 2017 in order to be fair to the New York Yankees organization?
Josh Hamilton is another guy that didn't didn't retire even though he wasn't healthy enough to play in MLB the last 2 years of his contract.

Even though he hasn't been injured for the most part, Pujols has a total WAR of .1 for the last 3 years. He's hurting the team and it must be humiliating for him, but he's likely to play out his contract. It will be interesting to see if Chris Davis can stomach batting .100 until the Orioles are forced to DFA him.

It's not surprising that the FA market has cooled of a bit.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Who are we to say that someone else has made “enough money”? John Henry has made a lot of money as well. If Pedroia was putting up MVP seasons he wouldn’t have the right to re-negotiate, so it goes both ways. I’d collect every nickel of that money if I were him.
No one. I certainly didn't.

What I did say was that Remy likely needed that money to live. Pedroia likely doesn't.
 

Green Monster

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Sox essentially owe Pedroia $40M for 3 years. Would renegotiating to pay the $40M over say 10yrs offer the Sox any salary cap relief? Pedroia still gets his money and perhaps an extra $1M or something to make is worth his while.......assuming its not possible or the Yankees would have already done something similar with Ellsbury, but figured someone here would have a better handle on it.

edit: Yanks aren't anywhere near the cap so perhaps there is no incentive from their side.
 

Byrdbrain

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He's not going on the 60 day at least for now, there is no point. They have 3 open 40 man spots and no one worth adding, what advantage is it to have 4 open spots?
He'll go down on the 10 day and he'll try to rehab and come back. Maybe he will maybe he won't.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Sox essentially owe Pedroia $40M for 3 years. Would renegotiating to pay the $40M over say 10yrs offer the Sox any salary cap relief? Pedroia still gets his money and perhaps an extra $1M or something to make is worth his while.......assuming its not possible or the Yankees would have already done something similar with Ellsbury, but figured someone here would have a better handle on it.

edit: Yanks aren't anywhere near the cap so perhaps there is no incentive from their side.
So you're proposing that they go from a 3/45 to a 10/45 deal and keep Pedroia on the roster until he's 46? Or, presumably, release him soon after they re-do the deal and just have $4.5M on the books for him for the next ten years? I'm not sure how that really is a benefit to the team even if it gets them a small amount of luxury tax relief in the short term (Pedroia is a $13.75M hit right now so ~$9M in savings). And I really don't see how that gets by the MLBPA or the commissioner.

If it really is the end for him, it's far more likely he retires with an agreement in place that the team hires him on as a consultant or roving instructor or whatever (basically what Pedro and Varitek do) and pays him most or all of the money he's still owed. Doesn't require the team to DFA him and avoids any chance of running afoul of accusations of luxury tax chicanery.
 

Green Monster

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So you're proposing that they go from a 3/45 to a 10/45 deal and keep Pedroia on the roster until he's 46? Or, presumably, release him soon after they re-do the deal and just have $4.5M on the books for him for the next ten years? I'm not sure how that really is a benefit to the team even if it gets them a small amount of luxury tax relief in the short term (Pedroia is a $13.75M hit right now so ~$9M in savings). And I really don't see how that gets by the MLBPA or the commissioner.

If it really is the end for him, it's far more likely he retires with an agreement in place that the team hires him on as a consultant or roving instructor or whatever (basically what Pedro and Varitek do) and pays him most or all of the money he's still owed. Doesn't require the team to DFA him and avoids any chance of running afoul of accusations of luxury tax chicanery.
I am not proposing they keep him on the roster until 46. Perhaps I didn't explain my hypothetical very well but I was thinking ...renegotiate with deferred money and then he retires. Sox get cap space....Previous posts were suggesting that he wasn't going to walk away form his guaranteed money (which I agree with) and I was trying to find a scenario that both sides would agree to...... Mets paid Bonilla for many years after he was done playing.
 

Byrdbrain

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That was the contract Bonilla signed, you can't do what you are proposing with a contract that already exists. That simply isn't how the MLB CBA is set up.
 

patoaflac

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Dempster demonstrated dignity. Pedroia has enough money for him and many generations down. He retires and the Sox give him a position with the club.
 
Jul 5, 2018
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Dempster demonstrated dignity. Pedroia has enough money for him and many generations down. He retires and the Sox give him a position with the club.
He has young children living in Arizona so I doubt if a job with the Sox, besides playing baseball, would have much appeal for him.

Most likely, the Sox were able to sign Pedroia for a lower AAV by offering a longer term deal, so it would be pretty charitable on Pedroia's part to walk away from the end of the contract. It's not going to happen and it has nothing to do with "dignity". It's just business.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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He has young children living in Arizona so I doubt if a job with the Sox, besides playing baseball, would have much appeal for him.
Pedro lives in Florida and still manages to have a "front office" job with the Sox (and an analyst job on MLB Network). I think Pedroia could do something similar while living in Arizona. The title is more honorary than anything. It's not like he needs to be in an office staring at spreadsheets and scouting reports all day.
 

RoDaddy

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It's not going to happen and it has nothing to do with "dignity". It's just business.
I'd say "legacy" is the better word and consideration. Pedey has a great one in Boston, unlike say Ellsbury in NY who was mentioned as a comparable situation (it isn't!). Pedey has already made a lot of money and is universally loved by Sox fans. So this legacy is likely to enter his mind when thinking about playing out the contract. If he's genuinely hurt to the point that he'll likely never again be close to what he was, I can imagine him possibly walking away from a lot of what's remaining in the contract to protect this image. I say "possibly" because it's not clear how much fans care about this sort of thing. But to me anyway, his playing out the full remainder of his contract while playing well below average - if that happens - would seem kinda greedy and self-centered, and so would tarnish his image some
 

WestMassExpat

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The whole premise of him needing to protect his image in such a situation is horribly biased toward ownership and is misguided to put it mildly.
 

RIrooter09

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But to me anyway, his playing out the full remainder of his contract while playing well below average - if that happens - would seem kinda greedy and self-centered, and so would tarnish his image some
So he should worry about John Henry's bottom line and retire?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He might have an interest in “the team” performance and realize that his $18M could be the difference between the team winning in the near future and not
 

Pandarama

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He might have an interest in “the team” performance and realize that his $18M could be the difference between the team winning in the near future and not
If I were he, the team I would most have an interest in would be Kelli, Dylan, Cole and Brooks Pedroia, and generations of Pedroias not yet born.
 

RIrooter09

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He might have an interest in “the team” performance and realize that his $18M could be the difference between the team winning in the near future and not
Should $18M be the difference between ownership fielding a winning team and not? They pulled in over half a billion in revenue last year.
 
Jul 5, 2018
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I'd say "legacy" is the better word and consideration. Pedey has a great one in Boston, unlike say Ellsbury in NY who was mentioned as a comparable situation (it isn't!). Pedey has already made a lot of money and is universally loved by Sox fans. So this legacy is likely to enter his mind when thinking about playing out the contract. If he's genuinely hurt to the point that he'll likely never again be close to what he was, I can imagine him possibly walking away from a lot of what's remaining in the contract to protect this image. I say "possibly" because it's not clear how much fans care about this sort of thing. But to me anyway, his playing out the full remainder of his contract while playing well below average - if that happens - would seem kinda greedy and self-centered, and so would tarnish his image some

Pedro already had millions and the Sox made a great offer, but he went for top dollar with the Mets. Even though he left the Sox for an extra guaranteed year he is well loved in Boston, but people expect Pedroia to cough up $25M+ to maintain his legacy?
 

WestMassExpat

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Baseball's a business just like any other entertainment. The question here is if you empathize more with the players (some are millionaires, many more are working at wages more akin to the literal poverty line just for a long-shot cup of coffee) versus literal billionaire-owners who know very well the business they're in.

Are you familiar with the draft pick penalties associated with going over the salary cap?
I'm sure John W. Henry was familiar when he or a proxy approved the deal.
 

sean1562

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The idea that the guy who destroys his knee for this team and wins 3 WS with us should just give up money for "dignity" is absurd. His knee is screwed, he deserves every penny of that contract, one that was intentionally signed to be team friendly. I cant believe Sox fans would give Dustin Pedroia shit for getting paid after everything he has done for this franchise. I am just sad he isnt gonna have an opportunity to get into HoF territory
 

RIrooter09

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Are you familiar with the draft pick penalties associated with going over the salary cap?
Yes, 10 spots lower for a pick that has a small chance of success to begin with. You want Pedroia to donate millions of dollars to John Henry to avoid that?
 

sean1562

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Also, why are people talking like $25 million is nothing? Yea, the guy has made millions of dollars, but that is still a significant chunk of his career earnings. At the end of his career, if he plays out his contract, he will have made $139,087,000. 25 mil is around 18% of that, and it isnt like he is ever going to get a job paying nearly that much money ever again. And his knee will be damaged for the rest of his life.