Pedroia Predictions

Al Zarilla

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I’m not saying that assessment of Maz’s defense was backed by empirical evidence. I’m saying it was the consensus view at the time of his election — Maz was to second base what Brooks Robinson is to third base and Ozzie Smith is to shortstop. Seems to me that’s a critical part of understanding why a guy with 30-odd career WAR got elected to the Hall (even by the VC); obviously, the big HR is part of the story too.
I never heard that comp, but I didn’t know much about Maz except for the home run. It was certainly hard to keep track of players not on the Red Sox or maybe the Yankees back then, especially national leaguers if you lived in NE. WAR wasn’t invented yet; all we had were fielding percentage and assists. Here’s a bit of a shocker to me: Maz had a higher career DWAR than OWAR, so that supports your case for him as an elite fielder. Not even Ozzie Smith had that, although less shocking because he became a better hitter as his career progressed.

If Mazeroski made it more on reputation than stats, maybe Pedroia has a chance.
 

santadevil

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I don't think I've made a prediction yet... but I'll say he'll start to catch fire in about two weeks and sometime around the middle of August he'll be hitting about .775 with 8 HR's and GG caliber defense then reinjure his knee and then retire after another playoffs sitting on the bench and another offseason surgery and expected missing year in 2020. He will also father a child.
I hope he gets enough AB's to qualify for the batting title.
Wish you were talking about BA instead of OPS
 

charlieoscar

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I’m not saying that assessment of Maz’s defense was backed by empirical evidence. I’m saying it was the consensus view at the time of his election...
Well, that answered my question of when. But he was elected by the Veteran's Committee (down to 14 members because Ted Williams had open-hear surgery) 16 years after he was eligible. In his last year of regular eligibility, he got 42.3% of the votes needed.

While the Veteran's Committee was a good idea that gave players who were overlooked before the Hall of Fame vote was established, it also has become a method of putting friends into the Hall.
 

SumnerH

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While the Veteran's Committee was a good idea that gave players who were overlooked before the Hall of Fame vote was established, it also has become a method of putting friends into the Hall.
They got rid of the Veteran’s Committee in favor of 3 era committees almost a decade ago, and split those into the current 4-committee era setup in 2016.
 

The Allented Mr Ripley

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I don't think I've made a prediction yet... but I'll say he'll start to catch fire in about two weeks and sometime around the middle of August he'll be hitting about .775 with 8 HR's and GG caliber defense then reinjure his knee and then retire after another playoffs sitting on the bench and another offseason surgery and expected missing year in 2020. He will also father a child.
Thank you for this input. I don't know what I would've done without it.
 

charlieoscar

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They got rid of the Veteran’s Committee in favor of 3 era committees almost a decade ago, and split those into the current 4-committee era setup in 2016.
That is so but Mazeroski still got into the Hall because of the Veteran's Committee vote.
 

geoduck no quahog

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My biggest concern with Pedroia is his statement that, given the opportunity for a re-set, he would not have had that type of surgery. There's a lot that can be read into that.

Time will tell...and he deserves all the time he needs.
 

nattysez

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I think PeteAbe makes a fair point. Certainly seems like Pedey could've used some more rehab time.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think PeteAbe makes a fair point. Certainly seems like Pedey could've used some more rehab time.
He makes a similar point to something I was trying to allude to in the Swihart thread. If Pedroia can't yet play every day, or even every other day (in the field), he's not of much use to the team. Especially one that's operating with a short bench due to the pitching situation. I understand why he DHed yesterday instead of playing on a wet field, but the result of his limitations and other illnesses and injuries was Vazquez playing 2B. It's fair to question why they rushed him back to be on the field at the home opener if he might still be better served "ramping up" in the minors.
 

findguapo

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I think PeteAbe makes a fair point. Certainly seems like Pedey could've used some more rehab time.
Yep, I think they need him to be playing 2B 5 days a week if he is going to be on the MLB roster. Including tonight, he has been on the roster for 7 games, and played 2B 3 times. That is not going to cut it. He shouldn't be DHing unless he starts hitting a lot better.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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He makes a similar point to something I was trying to allude to in the Swihart thread. If Pedroia can't yet play every day, or even every other day (in the field), he's not of much use to the team. Especially one that's operating with a short bench due to the pitching situation. I understand why he DHed yesterday instead of playing on a wet field, but the result of his limitations and other illnesses and injuries was Vazquez playing 2B. It's fair to question why they rushed him back to be on the field at the home opener if he might still be better served "ramping up" in the minors.
I'm coming around on this as well. I think down the road and likely not too far in the future they're going to cut bait on Pedroia and they'll look somewhat foolish for not having done it sooner. Maybe it was worth a shot to see if there's anything left in the tank, but his bat resembles a wet noodle and he's apparently rehabbing at the ML level hamstringing their roster flexibility(Not super impressed by DD's 2019 thus far). It looks like anything he tries to pull he can't get any power behind, so he's trying to use RF more to compensate for his lack of power and bat speed. Two hits both poke down the right field line mixed in with a bunch of pop flies and weak grounders. Pretty grim.

BTW- Chavis is playing most of his games at 2B and he's slugging .541.
 

Whiteroom802

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It's fair to question why they rushed him back to be on the field at the home opener if he might still be better served "ramping up" in the minors.
One answer might be that being on the field for the home opener was a way to give him a 'farewell' moment without announcing it as such. If they didn't think rehab at the minor league level was going to help, or could lead to a final injury that ends his career before a Fenway return, it'd be the way to get him on the field. It's certainly not the right move for the 2019 team, but it might be the right way to handle Dustin's final games. I hope that's not it, but...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Pedroia out of the game tonight after one inning. Hard to believe that his extra time off has been part of the plan at this point. As much as it sucks, this may be the end of the road for him. I really hope it's just a matter of him really needing to ramp up to regular playing time, but it needs to happen in the minors at this stage.
 

Byrdbrain

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There is no reason to put him on the 60 day, they still have a couple of slots on the 40 man roster.
 

RoDaddy

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Love Pedey but if in his heart of hearts he knows he'll never again be close to what was, he should retire. The team could certainly use the salary dump moving forward
 

DaveRoberts'Shoes

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This far out from that surgery, he’s not going to turn any corner. He’s as good as he’s gonna get, and that clearly isn’t going to be good enough. It’s a shitty way for him to go out, no doubt
 

twibnotes

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The guy owes us nothing...amazing career if this is the end.

Sad thing is, I bet this would be a very different team with a young version of Pedey. Impossible to quantify the value of that guy’s cockiness and will to win, but I do think it helps to have a guy like that.
 

TomBrunansky23

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I'd tend to count him out except for one thing. We just saw a guy win the biggest golf tournament in the world and everyone counted him out a few years ago based on an inability to overcome a chronic back injury. Who would have possibly foreseen Tiger winning the Masters given all of the medical issues from 2014-2017?
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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The team needs to bench Alex Cora in favor of Dustin Pedroia.

Seriously, I think Pedey will give it one more try later in the season and then hang 'em up if it doesn't work out (and I don't think it will).
 

charlieoscar

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The fact that he only played 75 games in 2010, 93 games in 2015, 105 games in 2017, 3 games in 2018 has probably cost him any chance he had of making the Hall of Fame.
 

bosockboy

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I'd tend to count him out except for one thing. We just saw a guy win the biggest golf tournament in the world and everyone counted him out a few years ago based on an inability to overcome a chronic back injury. Who would have possibly foreseen Tiger winning the Masters given all of the medical issues from 2014-2017?
He also has spent about 21 months away from major league pitching. Aside from the knee, that’s an eternity. Timing is destroyed.
That’s different than a man vs. course game like golf.
 

keninten

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Pedroia will probably be on the bench all year similar to last year. The little shit will probably be on the DL until his contract runs out. Doesn`t it help at playoff time to have guys on the 60 day DL?

I always hated the thought of Pedey going out by sucking because of age and not wanting to retire e.g. Willie Mays. Finishing his career with an injury is much preferable to me. Definitely one of my All-Time favorite Sox player.
 

Sampo Gida

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Some talk here of Pedey retiring. With close to 40 million still on the table nobody should expect that of him. A medical retirement is a possibility at some point but I think the Red Sox and Docs have to back that up so he can get paid. But what's the rush? 60 day DL frees up the roster spot. Medical retirement gives no tax relief. JWH likely has no insurance to collect on. I can't think of any benefit to early medical retirement except avoiding Cora having him DH periodically when he makes another attempt to play again but that's really on the manager and organization

I still remember him coming up in 2006. A short pudgy unathletic type being touted as a future star. An unimpressive start and bad visuals had me grinding my teeth in what was an already awful year. He spent the off-season in Arizona at API and came out looking like an athlete (albeit a short one). After a slow start his bat came around. Took a couple of seasons for the defense to come around. The rest is history. Been a tough few years though aside from 1 stellar year.

With Pedeys all out play and being in the middle IF without the power for the DH spot one could question the extension but if not for Machado he would probably still be pretty good

Anyways, send Pedey to Florida, get him 50 AB in rehab and bring him back in June if he can still play and see what happens. April weather in the NE is not kind to arthritic or bad knees.
 
Jul 5, 2018
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Some talk here of Pedey retiring. With close to 40 million still on the table nobody should expect that of him. A medical retirement is a possibility at some point but I think the Red Sox and Docs have to back that up so he can get paid. But what's the rush? 60 day DL frees up the roster spot. Medical retirement gives no tax relief. JWH likely has no insurance to collect on. I can't think of any benefit to early medical retirement except avoiding Cora having him DH periodically when he makes another attempt to play again but that's really on the manager and organization

I still remember him coming up in 2006. A short pudgy unathletic type being touted as a future star. An unimpressive start and bad visuals had me grinding my teeth in what was an already awful year. He spent the off-season in Arizona at API and came out looking like an athlete (albeit a short one). After a slow start his bat came around. Took a couple of seasons for the defense to come around. The rest is history. Been a tough few years though aside from 1 stellar year.

With Pedeys all out play and being in the middle IF without the power for the DH spot one could question the extension but if not for Machado he would probably still be pretty good

Anyways, send Pedey to Florida, get him 50 AB in rehab and bring him back in June if he can still play and see what happens. April weather in the NE is not kind to arthritic or bad knees.
Unathletic? He's one of the most athletic guys to ever play the game. Unathletic guys do not go through an entire HS season without striking out or get a full ride to ASU. If you read the linked article, it describes him as being exceptional at both basketball and football.

Because he is smaller than most other players, people like to consider him to be an overachiever, but the reality is that most players practice and play hard and the reason he has been so good is that he is extremely talented.

https://www.bostonmagazine.com/2009/03/23/dustin-pedroia/3/
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Unathletic? He's one of the most athletic guys to ever play the game. Unathletic guys do not go through an entire HS season without striking out or get a full ride to ASU. If you read the linked article, it describes him as being exceptional at both basketball and football.

Because he is smaller than most other players, people like to consider him to be an overachiever, but the reality is that most players practice and play hard and the reason he has been so good is that he is extremely talented.

https://www.bostonmagazine.com/2009/03/23/dustin-pedroia/3/
I think "athletic" is usually used as shorthand for fast and/or strong. Pedey has always seemed pretty average on both those counts. His most obvious physical talents are alertness, quick reactions, and coordination. All those things are also forms of athleticism, but not what people typically seem to mean by the word.
 

S. H. Frog

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How good was this kid when healthy geezus.
Wow. Time marches on. Buchholz and Pedroia both look so young in that video.

I don't think we're going to see much more Pedroia this year. Maybe another 19 games, to bring the total to 25.
 

donutogre

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Wow. Time marches on. Buchholz and Pedroia both look so young in that video.

I don't think we're going to see much more Pedroia this year. Maybe another 19 games, to bring the total to 25.
Never not a good time to watch that clip. There's a shot of Clay about half-way through and right before he holds his glove up to his face you can just see him have this look of "damn I thought it was all over there."

Pretty damn good stretch from Youk there to finish the play, too. I feel like the '07 team is perhaps the least heralded of the four champions from the 21st century, but I love-love-loved them.
 

tims4wins

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Never not a good time to watch that clip. There's a shot of Clay about half-way through and right before he holds his glove up to his face you can just see him have this look of "damn I thought it was all over there."

Pretty damn good stretch from Youk there to finish the play, too. I feel like the '07 team is perhaps the least heralded of the four champions from the 21st century, but I love-love-loved them.
Total side topic but to me that was the best Sox team we have seen, even better than 2018, despite what the records say.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Total side topic but to me that was the best Sox team we have seen, even better than 2018, despite what the records say.
Hard disagree. Tough call in some areas, but for me 2018's sheer SP depth is the dealbreaker which allowed them to clamp down and really keep boot to throat when it mattered.

The only area where 2007 squad is hands down better than 2018 is infield D, IMO.
 

tims4wins

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Hard disagree. Tough call in some areas, but for me 2018's sheer SP depth is the dealbreaker which allowed them to clamp down and really keep boot to throat when it mattered.

The only area where 2007 squad is hands down better than 2018 is infield D, IMO.
Depth as in 6th-8th starters? I guess. The 2-4 starters all threw up very similar ERA+:
2007:
Schilling 123
Dice-K 108
Wake 100
2018:
Price 122
Edro 114
Porcello 102

One major difference was that 2018 Sale (207 ERA+) was much better than 2007 Beckett (145 ERA+)... until the playoffs.

Maybe the playoffs are coloring my memory too much, but Beckett was so dominant, and Sale contributed almost nothing. Becket went 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 30 IP; Sale threw 15.1 IP with a 4.11 ERA.

And then on the back end, Papelbon was lights out whereas Kimbrel sucked. Paps went 10 2/3 IP without giving up a run.
 

donutogre

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Also, while Sale may have had the higher ERA+, it's not like Beckett was a slouch in the regular season. He took it up a notch in the postseason, but he was still very, very good that year.

I was going to say that the 2007 rotation didn't stand out to me as a big strength; after Beckett there was Dice-K who was fairly inconsistent, Schilling who was solid despite his age but missed a bunch of starts, and Wake who... well we know all about Wake.

But, Looking at those comparisons it's a lot closer than I would have expected. It really is hard having a consistent rotation top to bottom.
 

tims4wins

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Also, while Sale may have had the higher ERA+, it's not like Beckett was a slouch in the regular season. He took it up a notch in the postseason, but he was still very, very good that year.

I was going to say that the 2007 rotation didn't stand out to me as a big strength; after Beckett there was Dice-K who was fairly inconsistent, Schilling who was solid despite his age but missed a bunch of starts, and Wake who... well we know all about Wake.

But, Looking at those comparisons it's a lot closer than I would have expected. It really is hard having a consistent rotation top to bottom.
Right. Beckett also threw a lot more innings than Sale. In fact as a team the 2007 rotation threw nearly 100 more IP as SP 2018.

Edit: actually 120 more IP. 991 to 871. That's a lot more innings.
 
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donutogre

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Right. Beckett also threw a lot more innings than Sale. In fact as a team the 2007 rotation threw nearly 100 more IP as SP 2018.
*puts on the old guy voice* MY HOW THIS GAME HAS CHANGED.

I'll freely admit there's a nostalgic element to this, as well. I went to plenty of games in '07, and watched many more on TV. It was in the stretch of my 20s when I had plenty of time to watch pretty much as much as I wanted. I was at the four consecutive HR game, saw Clay's first start, and a bunch of other good ones. Not living in Boston for half of the '13 season and all of '18 makes me just a bit less connected to them.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Depth as in 6th-8th starters? I guess. The 2-4 starters all threw up very similar ERA+:
2007:
Schilling 123
Dice-K 108
Wake 100
2018:
Price 122
Edro 114
Porcello 102

One major difference was that 2018 Sale (207 ERA+) was much better than 2007 Beckett (145 ERA+)... until the playoffs.

Maybe the playoffs are coloring my memory too much, but Beckett was so dominant, and Sale contributed almost nothing. Becket went 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 30 IP; Sale threw 15.1 IP with a 4.11 ERA.

And then on the back end, Papelbon was lights out whereas Kimbrel sucked. Paps went 10 2/3 IP without giving up a run.
It kind of skews your argument when you ignore the guy at the top of the 2018 rotation with the 207 ERA+, don't you think?

And yes, with Eovaldi and EdRod the '18 team was a hell of a lot better on the backend.

I don't put a lot of stock in SSS, Kimbrel is and has been consistently better his whole career than Papelbon and Sale/Price is a better 1-2 than Lester/Beckett. The fact the Sox did what they did to the competition they did WITHOUT Sale for the most part speaks even more for them, IMO.
 

tims4wins

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It kind of skews your argument when you ignore the guy at the top of the 2018 rotation with the 207 ERA+, don't you think?

And yes, with Eovaldi and EdRod the '18 team was a hell of a lot better on the backend.

I don't put a lot of stock in SSS, Kimbrel is and has been consistently better his whole career than Papelbon and Sale/Price is a better 1-2 than Lester/Beckett. The fact the Sox did what they did to the competition they did WITHOUT Sale for the most part speaks even more for them, IMO.
Beckett also pitched a crap ton more innings than Sale in both the regular season and playoffs.

Given what we see from Sale this year on top of August 1 onward last year - would you take the 2018 over the 2007 team in a best of 7? I wouldn’t. Beckett gave that team the ace that the 2018 team didn’t have. If we are taking a series from April-end of July sure. But the current / second half of 2018 Sale I think skews this toward 2007.