Jaylen Brown - underrated?

nighthob

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look at Sabonis trajectory and his advanced numbers. He's been making leaps for 3 straight seasons. Sabonis just completed his 3rd season at 22, Kelly was a rookie at 22. Sabonis is still getting better and could develop a 3pt shot with his mechanics and be a top of the key distributor. His body/strength has improved a lot from his rookie season where OKC had him as a 4. I think he makes the next step as a very productive 30mpg starting Center next season. In the right system/situation, like the Celtics, he could be an All-Star in a couple of seasons. That's how I'd see him developing here. YMMV
He still isn’t a defensive anchor, and Boston still wouldn’t have enough perimeter defense to cover for both Sabonis and Walker with Brown moving out.

I also qualified my interest in Sabonis based on a reasonable contract, something that probably isn't happening with Brown.
If you’re expecting a Marcus Smart type deal for Sabonis, it’s not going to happen.
 

slamminsammya

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I don't think this is true unless by "jack" you mean below average at pretty much all basketball skills. Jaylen at least has a few things he is legitimately good at.
 

lovegtm

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Jeff Green was the classic "jack of all trades" type guy; could do a lot of things but excel at none of them. That is my concern for Brown, as it stands. I don't think that can be overcome by effort.
The point is that even if it can't be overcome for Brown, he likely ends up as a neutral or slightly positive asset.

Jeff Green was the classic "jack of all trades" type guy; could do a lot of things but excel at none of them. That is my concern for Brown, as it stands. I don't think that can be overcome by effort.
Yeah, Brown is already a superior defender at the wing, with the potential to improve further still.
 

Devizier

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The point is that even if it can't be overcome for Brown, he likely ends up as a neutral or slightly positive asset.


Yeah, Brown is already a superior defender at the wing, with the potential to improve further still.
So nice, you just had to quote it twice.
 

benhogan

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Shorter version: it’s really hard to find jacked 6-7/6-8 humans who can jump out of the building, shoot 3s, and understand NBA defense. Teams will always find a way to talk themselves into one of them, even at high $$ numbers, so they’re not super-risky assets to hold.

Hell, we all (rightly) shit on Jeff Green, but the Celtics collected 2 first rounders and Ray Allen over the years just by repeatedly trading Jeff Green’s Potential, even long after that should have been impossible.
Fair enough. I'd rather they exploit Jaylen's trade value now, a near MAX Brown isn't all that valuable IMO. I'm hoping he takes a leap this year, but his handle is a problem, which leads to his lack of court vision, TOs and limited moves to his left. His ppg and counting numbers will look good because he's a decent spot-up shooter and he'll launch or drive to the hoop aggressively. So some NBA team will throw a huge deal Jaylen's way.

Marcus Smart, who we have signed for the next 3 season slides right into the SG spot without any downgrade and has more upside if he continues to hit 3s >36%

He still isn’t a defensive anchor, and Boston still wouldn’t have enough perimeter defense to cover for both Sabonis and Walker with Brown moving out.

If you’re expecting a Marcus Smart type deal for Sabonis, it’s not going to happen.
Obviously, a Smart deal isn't happening, that was extremely team-friendly. BUT somewhere between Smart and Turner would be great (5/$75MM)

While some see Sabonis as a big doofus/stiff on defense hence the Kelly O and Enis Kanter (a completely assinine comparison on D & probably a troll) comps. I see a young, chiseled taller Baynes on defense in Brad's system. I also see a potential Al Horford on offense. Go look at Al's age 22 season on offense, not nearly as good as Sabonis age 22 season. Heck, go look at all of Al's seasons on offense, Sabonis just put up a higher ppg/36, reb/36, eFG% and asst/36 (pre Celtic) than all of Horford's seasons. I'm not saying Domantas' is better, but he's very underrated offensively, with plenty of upside.

While many want to dream on Jaylen, I don't need to on Sabonis, he's already very productive and he's trending up at a greater clip than Brown. While the Mavs, Zards, Wolves and Nets thought it was smart to offer big deals to guys like Barnes/Porter/Wiggins, I don't want the Celtics to do the same.


 
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lexrageorge

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Hate to say it: but if you were disappointed with Horford playing the 5 all season, you are going to be doubly disappointed when Jaylen Brown is a Celtic come playoff time.
 

benhogan

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Hate to say it: but if you were disappointed with Horford playing the 5 all season, you are going to be doubly disappointed when Jaylen Brown is a Celtic come playoff time.
Ha. I'm probably wrong, wouldn't be the first time. I was much more passionate about Horford spending half his time at the 4. Fake trades are just a by-product of boredom. I agree with lovegtm and the Celtics will probably address their issues in the frontcourt after Dec 15th.

But I'd be curious to hear from bowiac on what the Celtics win expectancy would be with Sabonis replacing Brown with Smart/Tatum getting more minutes and Kanter/Theis/Poirier getting fewer minutes
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I am curious whether these trade proposals involving Brown are based on any concrete reports that the players coming to Boston are actually available. It strikes me that if Boston moves Brown prior to next summer, the most likely destination is either a Western conference team or a rebuilding Eastern conference squad. The least likely destination/trading partners for someone like Ainge are teams with whom the Celtics are competing for playoff seeding or have notoriously difficult front-offices.
 

benhogan

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I am curious whether these trade proposals involving Brown are based on any concrete reports that the players coming to Boston are actually available. It strikes me that if Boston moves Brown prior to next summer, the most likely destination is either a Western conference team or a rebuilding Eastern conference squad. The least likely destination/trading partners for someone like Ainge are teams with whom the Celtics are competing for playoff seeding or have notoriously difficult front-offices.
yea, less than 1% chance of happening.

There have been numerous articles by the Pacers beat writers/podcasts that they want to deal either Turner or Sabonis. I've previously posted them. They have mentioned the Celtics as a good trade partner. Feel free to google it and decide if they are concrete enough.

Nate plans on starting Turner/Sabonis together. It may be worth keeping an eye on the Pacers to see if they can co-exist on the court at the same time. They didn't play well together against the Celtics in 4 playoff games.

Indy struggles to attract Free Agents and may have overpaid Milwaukee to sign Malcolm Brogdon as a UFA. They have Turner signed long term, drafted Goga, have Leaf on the bench - Sabonis may be a luxury they could turn into a position of need like young explosive wing.


damn maybe Danny is afraid of Kevin?
Danny Ainge got Pritch-slapped in the 2006 NBA Draft when he traded his lottery selection (Brandon Roy) and Raef LaFrentz to Portland for Sebastian Telfair and Theo Ratliff (AKA garbage players). :eek:
 
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nighthob

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Theo Ratliff had the most valuable contract in the NBA in 2006, he was out with a spinal injury and the contract was 80% covered by insurance. So, in essence, Boston sold the Trailblazers Randy Foye (because he was he actual player drafted at #7, Brandon Roy had been drafted at #6) for approximately $30 million. And if you look Foye’s career, and take into consideration that that insurance covered contract was a key part of the Garnett deal, I think that even you’ll admit that that wasn’t a bad deal for Boston.

Also, K-Rex isn’t a defensive stiff, he’s actually a defensive asset if you can cover for him. Much like Sabonis. Unfortunately Boston isn’t in a position to do that if they’re sacrificing perimeter D to trade for him.
 

lovegtm

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I am curious whether these trade proposals involving Brown are based on any concrete reports that the players coming to Boston are actually available. It strikes me that if Boston moves Brown prior to next summer, the most likely destination is either a Western conference team or a rebuilding Eastern conference squad. The least likely destination/trading partners for someone like Ainge are teams with whom the Celtics are competing for playoff seeding or have notoriously difficult front-offices.
There is no concrete indication that any of the players are available. In that sense, it’s more of an exercise in thinking of which types of players would make sense to move Brown for, if he moves at all.

CBA question: can you trade a package of players who make (for example) 16M for a 19M player, and then go ahead and trade just that 19M player for (say) a 22M player? I’m out of my depth with that one.
 

benhogan

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Theo Ratliff had the most valuable contract in the NBA in 2006, he was out with a spinal injury and the contract was 80% covered by insurance. So, in essence, Boston sold the Trailblazers Randy Foye (because he was he actual player drafted at #7, Brandon Roy had been drafted at #6) for approximately $30 million. And if you look Foye’s career, and take into consideration that that insurance covered contract was a key part of the Garnett deal, I think that even you’ll admit that that wasn’t a bad deal for Boston.

Also, K-Rex isn’t a defensive stiff, he’s actually a defensive asset if you can cover for him. Much like Sabonis. Unfortunately Boston isn’t in a position to do that if they’re sacrificing perimeter D to trade for him.
Ha, I was just quoting what was written on DBMH's link. I had no opinion on that deal :)


I like K-Rex, especially now that he has increased his fitness in Miami. Maybe Kelly and Sabonis were compared because they are big, white dudes from Gonzaga. IMO Sabonis is a better player who isn't close to peaking. As far as his defense I see Baynes as a better comp if he was in Brad's system. He's more than capable of guarding players in a matchup zone which is basically what Brad deploys, so I don't understand what cover for him means?
 
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lovegtm

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Ha, I was just quoting what was written on DBMH's link. I had no opinion on that deal :)


I like K-Rex, especially now that he has increased his fitness in Miami. Maybe Kelly and Sabonis were compared because they are big, white dudes from Gonzaga. IMO Sabonis is a better player who isn't close to peaking. As far as his defense I see Baynes as a better comp if he was in Brad's system. He's more than capable of guarding players in a matchup zone which is basically what Brad deploys, so I don't understand what cover for him means?
I made the comparison--it was mainly because they're both offensively skilled players who play good positional defense, but don't have the length or athleticism to really cause problems with vertical challenges. I didn't mean to go super-in-depth with what--just was pointing out that Sabonis doesn't have super-elite defensive tools.

If the money could work, what would be the reason for wanting Sabonis over someone like Steven Adams, who likely could be acquired for very little, or even just taking on his contract? (That contract expires before Tatum gets paid, so luxury tax likely isn't an issue). Your team is way better defensively in that scenario (because you still have Brown), and you keep access to Brown's upside. If he doesn't realize it, can likely move him for neutral to lightly positive value anyway.

Moving Brown now vs. later doesn't change a ton contract-wise, because any team acquiring him is going to be pricing his next extension into the trade.
 

lovegtm

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To clarify, the reason I keep harping on the fact that Brown will be moveable at most prices is that it takes away a lot of the pressure to trade him this season. Basically there are three scenarios that can happen this year:

1. Brown stays. Given his overall profile, he likely can be traded as a neutral or positive asset later if he doesn’t make a leap. That also gives lots of salary matching options.

2. Brown is traded for a lower upside Sabonis type who will likely get paid ~$20M. (If you evaluate Sabonis as very high upside, that’s a different story. Feel free to substitute another center in this scenario in that case).

3. Brown is traded for someone with a high defensive upside and some shooting upside like Turner.

I’d really only be interested in trading Brown in scenario 3. Scenario 2 leaves you in much the same place as the bad outcomes of 1: you have a player who’s a neutral or slightly positive asset, and you’re hoping he achieves his upside.
 

nighthob

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I like K-Rex, especially now that he has increased his fitness in Miami. Maybe Kelly and Sabonis were compared because they are big, white dudes from Gonzaga. IMO Sabonis is a better player who isn't close to peaking. As far as his defense I see Baynes as a better comp if he was in Brad's system. He's more than capable of guarding players in a matchup zone which is basically what Brad deploys, so I don't understand what cover for him means?
Baynes is long and strong, two things Sabonis isn’t. The other reason it’s not a good comparison is that Baynes is a backup C who’s at his best in a limited role. You sort of want more than that out of a player you’re dealing an explosively athletic 3&D player for.

To add to lovegtm’s points about Sabonis, he’s an unlong positional defender, you could get by with someone like that if you had lockdown defense at the 1-4 spots. Only Boston doesn’t have that. They already have Kemba Walker at the PG spot. He tries hard, but he’s still nearly 6’1” in his Doc Martens. That’s a weakness that’s going to get exploited.

They also have Hayward starting at one of the wing spots, and while I’m certainly optimistic about his getting back most of his athleticism, there’s a very real chance that he never gets more than 80% of it back. That would make it very hard for Boston to compensate for Sabonis being the defensive anchor, because he just can’t do it.

Now if Indiana would buy Langford for Sabonis, that’s another story, because Brown/Tatum/Smart at the wing spots would cover a lot of his deficiencies. But I doubt either team would go for it. Indiana for obvious reasons and Boston because Sabonis is about to become a payroll anchor.
 

lovegtm

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Now if Indiana would buy Langford for Sabonis, that’s another story, because Brown/Tatum/Smart at the wing spots would cover a lot of his deficiencies. But I doubt either team would go for it. Indiana for obvious reasons and Boston because Sabonis is about to become a payroll anchor.
The bolded is an important point: even though the team only has the Memphis pick left, good things can happen asset-wise if any of the 4-5 young guys shows promise.

Yet another reason to want the season to start... (or as many Celtics as possible to make the FIBA roster, I suppose)
 

Jimbodandy

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To clarify, the reason I keep harping on the fact that Brown will be moveable at most prices is that it takes away a lot of the pressure to trade him this season. Basically there are three scenarios that can happen this year:

1. Brown stays. Given his overall profile, he likely can be traded as a neutral or positive asset later if he doesn’t make a leap. That also gives lots of salary matching options.

2. Brown is traded for a lower upside Sabonis type who will likely get paid ~$20M. (If you evaluate Sabonis as very high upside, that’s a different story. Feel free to substitute another center in this scenario in that case).

3. Brown is traded for someone with a high defensive upside and some shooting upside like Turner.

I’d really only be interested in trading Brown in scenario 3. Scenario 2 leaves you in much the same place as the bad outcomes of 1: you have a player who’s a neutral or slightly positive asset, and you’re hoping he achieves his upside.
Exactly.

In summary, BH would rather pay Sabonis 25M than Brown. That's a perfectly defensible position. But with our commitment to Kemba, I'm not psyched to weaken our defense any more.

We likely haven't plugged the hole at 5 for defense, but Sabonis isn't that guy. Turner is though. And Turner already has his deal.
 

lovegtm

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Exactly.

In summary, BH would rather pay Sabonis 25M than Brown. That's a perfectly defensible position. But with our commitment to Kemba, I'm not psyched to weaken our defense any more.

We likely haven't plugged the hole at 5 for defense, but Sabonis isn't that guy. Turner is though. And Turner already has his deal.
Given positional scarcity and potential upside, I don't think it's that defensible in Sabonis' case, but it's not worth derailing the discussion over. Also worth noting that if the Celtics actually wanted to swap Sabonis for Brown, Sabonis would probably be a Celtic already, because Indy says "yes" to that 1-1 swap instantly. (This isn't evidence that Brown is better; Indy has very specific positional needs. It just indicates that the Celtics probably like Brown more).
 

Jimbodandy

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Given positional scarcity and potential upside, I don't think it's that defensible in Sabonis' case, but it's not worth derailing the discussion over. Also worth noting that if the Celtics actually wanted to swap Sabonis for Brown, Sabonis would probably be a Celtic already, because Indy says "yes" to that 1-1 swap instantly. (This isn't evidence that Brown is better; Indy has very specific positional needs. It just indicates that the Celtics probably like Brown more).
I'm in agreement. I just get BHs thing for Sabonis, given repeated leaps. I wouldn't call someone nuts for making that trade, but I disagree with it. And position is a big part of that.
 

benhogan

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Apologies for the Sabonis hijack:drunk:

but it relates to Jaylen Brown, since that's what it would take to land him IMO.

Exactly.

In summary, BH would rather pay Sabonis 25M than Brown. That's a perfectly defensible position. But with our commitment to Kemba, I'm not psyched to weaken our defense any more.

We likely haven't plugged the hole at 5 for defense, but Sabonis isn't that guy. Turner is though. And Turner already has his deal.
just to clarify, I never said $25MM for Sabonis. I guessed/estimated 5yr for $75MM, somewhere between Smart and Turner. But I really don't know what he is looking for. I'm also guessing that Brown is thinking at least 4yr for $100MM at the moment. I believe Sabonis adds more wins now and in the future than Jaylen Brown. I also believe Marcus Smart/Tatum/Hayward are better and take a lot of his minutes while getting to develop Langford/Edwards.


Baynes is long and strong, two things Sabonis isn’t. The other reason it’s not a good comparison is that Baynes is a backup C who’s at his best in a limited role. You sort of want more than that out of a player you’re dealing an explosively athletic 3&D player for.

To add to lovegtm’s points about Sabonis, he’s an unlong positional defender, you could get by with someone like that if you had lockdown defense at the 1-4 spots. Only Boston doesn’t have that. They already have Kemba Walker at the PG spot. He tries hard, but he’s still nearly 6’1” in his Doc Martens. That’s a weakness that’s going to get exploited.

They also have Hayward starting at one of the wing spots, and while I’m certainly optimistic about his getting back most of his athleticism, there’s a very real chance that he never gets more than 80% of it back. That would make it very hard for Boston to compensate for Sabonis being the defensive anchor, because he just can’t do it.

Now if Indiana would buy Langford for Sabonis, that’s another story, because Brown/Tatum/Smart at the wing spots would cover a lot of his deficiencies. But I doubt either team would go for it. Indiana for obvious reasons and Boston because Sabonis is about to become a payroll anchor.
1. Sabonis is slightly taller than Baynes and 20lbs lighter, but he is 9yrs younger and still growing. Over the last 3 seasons he is night and day from his rookie year. He is much stronger & getting bigger. Sabonis at 23 is defensively more agile than Aron Baynes, which helps on the perimeter.

2. I compared Sabonis defense to Baynes, which would be a plus defender. They both are smart, positional defenders. They don't need to jump out of the gym, they know how to use their size/chest/strength to move players out of the 3ft circle without hacking.

3. I can't find a statistical measure that says Sabonis is a defensive anchor. Please point me in that direction?
If he was a defensive anchor wouldn't some of it show up on his ON/OFF, since he plays opposite Myles Turner (an exceptional defensive 5).
2018-19 ON/OFF
Sabonis (plus 2.9) vs. Turner (-1.4)

4. Sabonis is worlds better than Aron Baynes offensively, no need to post any statistical #s to embarrass my guy from Oz

5. I already showed Sabonis is much better offensively across the board (ppg/36, assists/36, reb/36, eFG%, 3pt%, etc) than Al Horford at this age. Sabonis is still getting better, he has never had a down year, it's been a straight shot up. He comes from excellent lineage, his Old Man was an awesome hoops player. I'd like to have Sabonis Jr for his age 23-28yrs

6. So going forward, I see Sabonis as a defensive Baynes/offensive Horford, which is a very good player. Borderline All-Star, eventually getting there in a season or two. YMMV

7. Sabonis just finished #2 as 6th man of the year, the NBA thinks he's a darn good player.

8. After reading the recent Jaylen Brown article we have to be wearing some hardcore green shaded goggles to not be concerned with his limitations after 3 seasons. Maybe it was his hand injury last season? I like his defense and his athletic skills. BUT I also see a terrible handle and some sort of mental block when it comes to FTs.

9. If we are worried about Sabonis playing the defensive 5 with Kemba & Co, shouldn't we be terrified about Kanter playing the 5?

10. Nighthob, I like you cap skills, so explain to me how an estimate ~$15MM/yr for Sabonis be a payroll anchor?

I am curious whether these trade proposals involving Brown are based on any concrete reports that the players coming to Boston are actually available. It strikes me that if Boston moves Brown prior to next summer, the most likely destination is either a Western conference team or a rebuilding Eastern conference squad. The least likely destination/trading partners for someone like Ainge are teams with whom the Celtics are competing for playoff seeding or have notoriously difficult front-offices.
by no means concrete, but this is an article about dealing Sabonis in the last 5 days (they even throw a picture of Jaylen Brown on page 3)

 
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Jimbodandy

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Problem with on off numbers for defense is that we need rim protection. You really need to squint to imagine Sabonis being that guy ever. Yeah Kanter doesn't provide that either, but we didn't need to trade Brown for him.
 

Big John

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Sabonis is a Horford replacement, not a rim protector. Or let me put it another way: if Grant Williams were 6-11 he might become Sabonis is a few years.
Alas, I think the Turner-Sabonis pairing will work very well,so I don't see getting Sabonis for Brown unless Ainge sweetens the deal considerably.
 
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lovegtm

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Sabonis is a Horford replacement, not a rim protector. Or let me put it another way: if Grant Williams were 6-11 he might become Sabonis is a few years.
Alas, I think the Turner-Sabonis pairing will work very well,so I don't see getting Sabonis for Brown unless Ainge sweetens the deal considerably.
If Ainge offered Brown for Sabonis today, Indy would take it imo. They have no other realistic path to a wing with comparable upside. And Brogdon, Oladipo, Brown, Turner + a random wing is a terrifying defensive team that also has a lot of offensive potential.
 

Big John

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If Ainge offered Brown for Sabonis today, Indy would take it imo. They have no other realistic path to a wing with comparable upside. And Brogdon, Oladipo, Brown, Turner + a random wing is a terrifying defensive team that also has a lot of offensive potential.
If Indy were willing I'd do that in a heartbeat-- and I really like Brown as a player.
 

lovegtm

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The reason I'm wary of trading Brown for a center is that quite good centers can often be picked up for lower prices than guys at other positions. Marc Gasol was traded basically for free last season, and he's a better player than Sabonis. Adams is a better fit than Sabonis imo (especially in the east), not much older, and likely available for just salary match and maybe a late first rounder.
 

pjheff

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Adams is a better fit than Sabonis imo (especially in the east), not much older, and likely available for just salary match and maybe a late first rounder.
How does Ainge achieve that salary match for $25,842,697?
 

nighthob

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Sabonis is a Horford replacement, not a rim protector. Or let me put it another way: if Grant Williams were 6-11 he might become Sabonis is a few years.

Alas, I think the Turner-Sabonis pairing will work very well,so I don't see getting Sabonis for Brown unless Ainge sweetens the deal considerably.
Yes, Turner’s mobile rim protection allows Indiana to play Sabonis in front of him without worrying. Also, I don’t love the Horford comparison as his wingspan and mobility (which Sabonis will never have) made him worlds better defensively than Sabonis at a similar age. The Olynyk comparison is still a good one as DS is a rich man’s K-Rex. A useful player, but one that needs to be covered for defensively. I’d want more than that for Jaylen.

Lastly, I’ve been saying this for a long time now, but the draft class of 2016 is going to be overpaid, there’s a 0% chance that Sabonis gets less than Turner. The UFA class is terrible, so the worthwhile guys from the 2016 draft are going to get PAID.
 

benhogan

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Problem with on off numbers for defense is that we need rim protection. You really need to squint to imagine Sabonis being that guy ever. Yeah Kanter doesn't provide that either, but we didn't need to trade Brown for him.
No squinting necessary.

Once again, show me one thing, show me anything that puts Sabonis in the same zip code as Enis Kanter defensively?
Please go look at Kanter's age 22 season, he was a disaster defensively. Can't play Kanter was what Billy Donovan said then. Enis is better now but still not close to Sabonis.

Now go look at Sabonis growth, the guy is budding All-Star if he develops a 3pt shot and continues to get stronger.

I've got 4 different adv metrics that says he's a plus defender are they all wrong? using the eye test, I see Aron Baynes defensively with more agility on the perimeter as a comp for Sabonis. I guess its the eye test where we differ?

I could go either way on Steven Adams. He has no outside shot, a terrible FT shooter and expensive, that type of player is trending down.
 
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Jimbodandy

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No squinting necessary.

Once again, show me one thing, show me anything that puts Sabonis in the same zip code as Enis Kanter defensively?
Please go look at Kanter's age 22 season, he was a disaster defensively. Can't play Kanter was what Billy Donovan said then. Enis is better now but still not close to Sabonis.

Now go look at Sabonis growth, the guy is budding All-Star if he develops a 3pt shot and continues to get stronger.

I've got 4 different adv metrics that says he's a plus defender are they all wrong? using the eye test, I see Aron Baynes defensively with more agility on the perimeter as a comp for Sabonis. I guess its the eye test where we differ?

I could go either way on Steven Adams. He has no outside shot, a terrible FT shooter and expensive, that type of player is trending down.
You compared Sabonis to Kanter, not me. We both agree that there's no comparison on defense. Kanter is that bad. Why you're keeping on this is beyond my comprehension. My point was that one was free, and one would cost Brown.

Additionally. I specifically called out rim protection in the post that you quoted. Sabonis doesn't do that.

And you quoted a post about defense and talked about Sabonis' 3pt shot. Again I am confused.

Lack of rim protection is likely to hurt us next year and going forward, unless someone develops or is brought in. Please make an argument about how Sabonis possibly helps protect the rim, if you think that he does.
 

nighthob

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Basically Boston needs TimeLord to hit his upside projection to cover the Walker mismatches. And if that happened he would make Sabonis playable at the four. But really I’d rather Tatum/Hayward/Brown/Smart as the wing rotation than replace one of them with a better version of K-Rex. That doesn’t really move the needle for Boston any. Especially not when there’s a 100% chance that Sabonis is getting a Stevie Adams type contract next summer.
 

benhogan

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You compared Sabonis to Kanter, not me. We both agree that there's no comparison on defense. Kanter is that bad. Why you're keeping on this is beyond my comprehension. My point was that one was free, and one would cost Brown.

Additionally. I specifically called out rim protection in the post that you quoted. Sabonis doesn't do that.

And you quoted a post about defense and talked about Sabonis' 3pt shot. Again I am confused.

Lack of rim protection is likely to hurt us next year and going forward, unless someone develops or is brought in. Please make an argument about how Sabonis possibly helps protect the rim, if you think that he does.
Yes, I want rim protection for the Celtics also.

While I agree blocked shots/altering shots at the rim is extremely helpful, it's not the end-all/be-all for rim protection and defense from a big man. Positioning, cutting off the lane, physicality, court awareness, intelligence is also important to good defense. If you have watched their games, Sabonis excels at those (much like Aron Baynes did)

Last year, Sabonis didn't block shots at a high rate and Myles Turner was a shot-blocking machine. Yet the defensive efficiency wasn't any different with the same group of players, competition and scheme.

Basically Boston needs TimeLord to hit his upside projection to cover the Walker mismatches. And if that happened he would make Sabonis playable at the four. But really I’d rather Tatum/Hayward/Brown/Smart as the wing rotation than replace one of them with a better version of K-Rex. That doesn’t really move the needle for Boston any. Especially not when there’s a 100% chance that Sabonis is getting a Stevie Adams type contract next summer.
100% confident he'll get $25MM, how did K-Rex II get so darn expensive? Wage inflation like this and the Fed will need to stop cutting rates.

Danny will need to go after Myles Turner hard if Nate's two-BIGs experiment fails.
 

nighthob

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Take a look at next year’s free agent class, the pickings are pretty dire. So if K-Rex got 4/50 during a premium free agent class, what do you think v2.0 is going to get in an appalling one? (Hint, an awful fucking lot, especially if Boston inks Jaylen to an extension this fall).
 

Big John

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Brown and Sabonis will get paid about the same, yes? So a trade of one for the other would be a wash.
 

nighthob

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Brown and Sabonis will get paid about the same, yes? So a trade of one for the other would be a wash.
That’s what most of us have been saying, Ben Hogan is convinced that Sabonis will get slightly higher than Marcus Smart money. A role playing big might be worth that, it’s the near max money that I’m skeptical of him being worth. Because while Sabonis on a rookie deal is a bargain, at near max money he might not be so tradable. It’s much the same problem OKC is having with Steven Adams.
 

Big John

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Sabonis is much more skilled than Steven Adams-- or Jaylen Brown for that matter. Brown is uber athletic, but Sabonis is a better basketball player. The Celtics' problem isn't going to be paying Sabonis because the Pacers won't trade him straight up for Brown. The Celtics' problem is going to be how much to pay Brown.
 

nighthob

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The Pacers can feel free to go the three C lineup route to compete with Philly. That’s not Boston’s way and not the way the game is trending. Boston is going to be looking to add a big wing over the next two drafts to replace Hayward after he’s gone, because that’s just the way that Boston’s been going for several years. They clearly think that they got their big man of the future in TimeLord and aren’t looking to trade for a traditional C.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Brown and Sabonis will get paid about the same, yes? So a trade of one for the other would be a wash.
The only talk of a trade like this is in this forum and maybe a throw away trade idea in a random podcast. Indy jack-of-all-sports columnists (e.g. Greg Doyel, who is notorious around these parts for his dogged coverage of the seemingly endless Patriots cheating scandals) were writing articles about the Pacers needing to move Sabonis during the summer in order to improve the team but Pritchard managed to do that without a trade.

Anything can happen but I have seen zero credible reports that Boston and Indiana have had any real discussions about a Brown for Sabonis swap.

Its a decent idea but if we are making up hypothetical deals that involve conference rivals, each with front offices which are viewed as shrewd trade partners, we can probably do better.
 

Big John

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The Pacers can feel free to go the three C lineup route to compete with Philly. That’s not Boston’s way and not the way the game is trending. Boston is going to be looking to add a big wing over the next two drafts to replace Hayward after he’s gone, because that’s just the way that Boston’s been going for several years. They clearly think that they got their big man of the future in TimeLord and aren’t looking to trade for a traditional C.
Langford is the Hayward replacement, or so Ainge hopes. Sabonis isn't a traditional center, and in any event I find it hard to believe that the Celtics' brass think Timelord is their big man of the future. Sabonis can stretch the floor, TL does not.
 

nighthob

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Sabonis would have been a floor stretcher 10 years ago, not anymore. And while Langford is one brand in the fire, they’re still going to be looking for another big wing to put on the floor at the 4 spot. Put another way, if Langford becomes as good as Boston is publicly hoping, it gives them the latitude to move Brown and the Memphis pick for a top ten guy.
 

Big John

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Which big wing did you have in mind? And which top 10 guy is that package going to produce? If they were looking for 4, they should have drafted Doumbouya.or Okeke.
 

nighthob

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How many times does Boston’s management have to say that they try to keep assets to be ready to strike when a top 10 guy becomes available before people will believe them? Now Ainge does have a type, big guys with guards games (e.g. Kevin Garnett and Anthony Davis). But as they demonstrated with Irving, they’ll take a shot at any player sufficiently talented.

As for Doumbouya, they obviously rated him lower than Langford (and if they think that Langford’s shooting issues are correctable I can understand that). And Langford, as a small wing, would make Brown a trade asset if he pans out. Or perhaps they just move Brown to the big wing spot.
 

TripleOT

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Am I missing something here? DS isn't a great defender or rebounders, doesn't take threes anymore, only 17 the entire last season, and took 79% of his shots inside of 10 feet. Is that the kind of player that is highly valued in today's NBA?
 

benhogan

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That’s what most of us have been saying, Ben Hogan is convinced that Sabonis will get slightly higher than Marcus Smart money. A role playing big might be worth that, it’s the near max money that I’m skeptical of him being worth. Because while Sabonis on a rookie deal is a bargain, at near max money he might not be so tradable. It’s much the same problem OKC is having with Steven Adams.
Ha, come on dude... Please stop putting words in my mouth. I do a good enough job working up the crowd around here already

1. First off you originally said Sabonis wasn't getting Marcus Smart money to sign an extension now ( Post #951)

2. I agreed, saying I wouldn't deal for Sabonis unless he came for a team-friendly deal now and guessed somewhere around ($15MM/yr) (Post #944 & 955)

3. Also, Sabonis signing an extension this Summer, is completely different than going into RFA next year.

4. I've been far more bullish on Sabonis then yourself. He is trending to be much, much better than Olynyk.

So knock it off

Here is some 3rd party thoughts on a Sabonis extension this Summer:

 
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benhogan

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The only talk of a trade like this is in this forum and maybe a throw away trade idea in a random podcast. Indy jack-of-all-sports columnists (e.g. Greg Doyel, who is notorious around these parts for his dogged coverage of the seemingly endless Patriots cheating scandals) were writing articles about the Pacers needing to move Sabonis during the summer in order to improve the team but Pritchard managed to do that without a trade.

Anything can happen but I have seen zero credible reports that Boston and Indiana have had any real discussions about a Brown for Sabonis swap.

Its a decent idea but if we are making up hypothetical deals that involve conference rivals, each with front offices which are viewed as shrewd trade partners, we can probably do better.
They specifically mentioned Jaylen Brown (picture included) in this article 5 days ago in a Sabonis trade scenario.



Zach Lowe also discussed it on ESPN:
"Top big wings rarely become available. They are the most valuable player type in the NBA. Most realistic deals for one amount to Indiana selling low on Sabonis or Turner. One natural trade match to monitor: Boston, with three such players in Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward (and Marcus Smart can play up a position or two) and a shortage of proven bigs.



There was also an article by Max Carlin discussing some of Jaylen Brown's limitations a few days ago:


In the last day this article came out about Jaylen Brown's situation:


I think it qualifies for worthiness to discuss in a "Jaylen Brown thread" what kind of players make sense to trade for. If the deal makes sense for both parties, in-conference deals can be made, especially with the Sixers and Bucks clearly the front runners in the EC. YMMV

Maybe a DOPE can weigh in if he thinks this thread has gone sideways?
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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They specifically mentioned Jaylen Brown (picture included) in this article 5 days ago in a Sabonis trade scenario.


There was also an article by Max Carlin discussing some of Jaylen Brown's limitations a few days ago:


In the last day this article came out about Jaylen Brown:


I think it qualifies for worthiness to discuss in a "Jaylen Brown thread" what kind of players make sense to trade for. If the deal makes sense for both parties, in-conference deals can be made, especially with the Sixers and Bucks clearly the front runners in the EC. YMMV

Maybe a DOPE can weigh in if he thinks this thread has gone sideways?
I have seen nobody in this thread contest the idea that Brown may not be worth retaining at the money he is likely to fetch in the market. Carlin explores that at length.

The first and last pieces you link to are not penned by reporters or even bloggers with press passes but instead by "diehard NBA fans"/aspiring NBA writers like many people in this forum.

My point is simply that there are little to no sourced reports suggesting that a Brown for Sabonis trade has been discussed at all by the actual teams that control the players rights. Given Pritchard and Ainge's respective reputations as well as the fact that the Celtics and Pacers may well be directly competing for playoff seeding for the next few years, I would guess the bar for even discussing a deal is pretty high. Its not a bad trade idea but right now it has little basis in reality.
 

benhogan

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I have seen nobody in this thread contest the idea that Brown may not be worth retaining at the money he is likely to fetch in the market. Carlin explores that at length.

The first and last pieces you link to are not penned by reporters or even bloggers with press passes but instead by "diehard NBA fans"/aspiring NBA writers like many people in this forum.

My point is simply that there are little to no sourced reports suggesting that a Brown for Sabonis trade has been discussed at all by the actual teams that control the players rights. Given Pritchard and Ainge's respective reputations as well as the fact that the Celtics and Pacers may well be directly competing for playoff seeding for the next few years, I would guess the bar for even discussing a deal is pretty high. Its not a bad trade idea but right now it has little basis in reality.
how about Zach Lowe from ESPN:

"Top big wings rarely become available. They are the most valuable player type in the NBA. Most realistic deals for one amount to Indiana selling low on Sabonis or Turner. One natural trade match to monitor: Boston, with three such players in Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward (and Marcus Smart can play up a position or two) and a shortage of proven bigs.


BUT once again I agree with you that the odds of a Sabonis for Brown deal happening are extremely low.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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how about Zach Lowe from ESPN:

"Top big wings rarely become available. They are the most valuable player type in the NBA. Most realistic deals for one amount to Indiana selling low on Sabonis or Turner. One natural trade match to monitor: Boston, with three such players in Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward (and Marcus Smart can play up a position or two) and a shortage of proven bigs.

He made a throw-away observation in a catch-all free agency column. He did not report that the trade has been discussed by the actual teams. If you read Lowe regularly, he throws in plenty of trade ideas like that and he didn't just suggest Brown - he mentions Tatum and Hayward as well.

I will be clear again - from what I have seen, there are no sourced reports that the Pacers and Celtics have had any sorts of discussions about Sabonis for Brown.

You can discuss it and dream on it as much as you would like of course but its no more realistic than thinking up a Brown for another big trade that might actually address Boston's glaring front-court deficiencies.
 

DannyDarwinism

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He made a throw-away observation in a catch-all free agency column. He did not report that the trade has been discussed by the actual teams. If you read Lowe regularly, he throws in plenty of trade ideas like that and he didn't just suggest Brown - he mentions Tatum and Hayward as well.

I will be clear again - from what I have seen, there are no sourced reports that the Pacers and Celtics have had any sorts of discussions about Sabonis for Brown.

You can discuss it and dream on it as much as you would like of course but its no more realistic than thinking up a Brown for another big trade that might actually address Boston's glaring front-court deficiencies.
Lowe even prefaces the discussion with this, in the paragraph before: “For now, the Pacers are all-in playing their two bigs together.The results improved last season, in limited minutes. It is a really nice NBA subplot that both Turner and Sabonis want it to work -- that neither sees the other as a threat.”

But for my money, when grasping at post hoc justifications for an argument I made on the internet and will therefore now cling to as if my life depended on it, selectively quoting Zach Lowe > quoting rando local bloggers wishcasting > citing a Gregg Doyel opinion piece >>>>>> actually looking at it objectively and admitting I mildly overstated my initial premises.
 

Big John

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It did not reduce the trade speculation when Boston (with a glut of wings) drafted Langford at #14 and the Pacers (with two young big men) took Bitadze at #18. Both could be viewed as insurance picks. But I agree that the chances of Brown for Sabonis are very small.