Jaylen Brown - underrated?

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I think the likelihood of JB signing a contract before the ASB are zero. At this point in time, there are just too many unknowns for everyone involved. Jaylen thinks he will be in the top tier of RFAs next summer. The Celtics hope that he would be, but they just don't know. IMHO, they'd be foolish to give him big money now, and Jaylen would be foolish to accept a big discount now. Let's see how he plays this season (which many think should be better than last for him), and then make a decision.
Isn't there an October 15 deadline for an extension?

edit: October 14. https://hoopshype.com/2019/06/17/boston-celtics-contracts-key-dates-deadlines-options-trade-eligibility/
 

nighthob

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I think the likelihood of JB signing a contract before the ASB are zero. At this point in time, there are just too many unknowns for everyone involved. Jaylen thinks he will be in the top tier of RFAs next summer. The Celtics hope that he would be, but they just don't know. IMHO, they'd be foolish to give him big money now, and Jaylen would be foolish to accept a big discount now. Let's see how he plays this season (which many think should be better than last for him), and then make a decision.
The deadline for rookies to sign extensions is October, after that they have to wait until the ensuing offseason. I’d agree, though, and say that the odds that he’s a member of the Thunder are better than those of him extending.
 

ehaz

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One advantage to giving Jaylen a market extension now is that, in a future trade next offseason, his full salary would count rather than half if the Celtics instead end up negotiating a S&T.
 

nighthob

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One advantage to giving Jaylen a market extension now is that, in a future trade next offseason, his full salary would count rather than half if the Celtics instead end up negotiating a S&T.
That was definitely what they were looking to do with Rozier (to create trade ballast for a Davis deal). They'll clearly push to reach an agreement with Brown. I do think that there's an offhand cvhance that they deal him, though, rather than watch him hit RFA status and end up gambling on either matching a max offer (because I think there's nigh on a 100% chance that he gets one) or on recouping full value in a sign & trade.
 

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Jaylen's obviously his own person, but it's interesting to me how much NBA players are betting on themselves not getting injured. Kawhi, for example, only going for a 3 year deal. Quite a few players going for 4 year rather than 5 year deals. Different situation, but MaMo going for the 1 year $15 million on a craptacular team than $20 million over two years on a playoff contender. IT should give seminars to NBA players about the riskiness of their situation.
 

Big John

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The salaries are so astronomical-- never mind the sneaker deals, endorsements, etc.-- that some young men in the 20's don't see a material difference in having $40M after tax as opposed to, say, $25M. Their agents do, but sometimes tails don't wag the dog.
 

nighthob

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Jaylen's obviously his own person, but it's interesting to me how much NBA players are betting on themselves not getting injured. Kawhi, for example, only going for a 3 year deal. Quite a few players going for 4 year rather than 5 year deals. Different situation, but MaMo going for the 1 year $15 million on a craptacular team than $20 million over two years on a playoff contender. IT should give seminars to NBA players about the riskiness of their situation.
You can only sign five year deals with a team that has your Bird Rights, and doing so usually means you surrender a max tier. Most rookies that fall into the max tier sign five year deals with ETOs, though.
 

bowiac

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Jaylen's obviously his own person, but it's interesting to me how much NBA players are betting on themselves not getting injured. Kawhi, for example, only going for a 3 year deal. Quite a few players going for 4 year rather than 5 year deals. Different situation, but MaMo going for the 1 year $15 million on a craptacular team than $20 million over two years on a playoff contender. IT should give seminars to NBA players about the riskiness of their situation.
The Durant contract seems relevant here. He suffered the most devastating injury there is, and still got a max deal with a player option at the back end. I don't know if Kawhi could get a full max if he tore his Achilles, but it's unclear how much he's risking really. Almost any other injury and he's probably still in line for a mega payday in two years.
 

InstaFace

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IT should give seminars to NBA players about the riskiness of their situation.
If IT had the slightest clue that he merely lost the roll of the dice, rather than forces beyond his control being out to get him, or it being "just another challenge he needed to overcome", he might have drawn the proper lessons and be on a path to explaining them to people. But from all his comments, he's not.

Humans are not built to intuitively understand how to think about probabilities. That's why we're all so risk-averse - give someone a cherry-picked example of a bad outcome from a certain action that they're already predisposed to dislike, and they'll act as if that's the only outcome possible. No you can't take our kid on a hike, he'll get eaten by bears. Conversely, point out the odds of something (like injuries) that they're convinced is entirely in their control, and they'll ignore them. Hence fear of flying on airplanes but no common fear of driving on highways.
 

lovegtm

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Jaylen's obviously his own person, but it's interesting to me how much NBA players are betting on themselves not getting injured. Kawhi, for example, only going for a 3 year deal. Quite a few players going for 4 year rather than 5 year deals. Different situation, but MaMo going for the 1 year $15 million on a craptacular team than $20 million over two years on a playoff contender. IT should give seminars to NBA players about the riskiness of their situation.
This is much more true for players on their 3rd contract. Guys coming off the rookie deal have tended to want to lock in the 50-100M of earnings, although it’s true there is a limit to what they’ll do for discounts.

Wings are also in better position to take the risk than bigs are.
 

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If IT had the slightest clue that he merely lost the roll of the dice, rather than forces beyond his control being out to get him, or it being "just another challenge he needed to overcome", he might have drawn the proper lessons and be on a path to explaining them to people. But from all his comments, he's not.

Humans are not built to intuitively understand how to think about probabilities. That's why we're all so risk-averse - give someone a cherry-picked example of a bad outcome from a certain action that they're already predisposed to dislike, and they'll act as if that's the only outcome possible. No you can't take our kid on a hike, he'll get eaten by bears. Conversely, point out the odds of something (like injuries) that they're convinced is entirely in their control, and they'll ignore them. Hence fear of flying on airplanes but no common fear of driving on highways.
Completely agreed. However, if you can reasonably assign an injury probability on yourself over the next few years, it should be relatively easy to make the right decision. So, let's say you are between a short term contract that will lead to a bigger more lucrative contract and a longer contract in which you give a discount to your team. By assigning a x% of injury probability before the bigger more lucrative contract comes into play, you can see which decision has the most expected Value.

Having said that, since this is a game that's going to be played only once and since the consequences of an injury might be catastrophic for you, prudence may require you to take an even more conservative course of action than probabilities would dictate. That's especially the case if you are about to sign your first big contract. On the other hand, if you have already been through a large contract and you have more money than any individual needs in the bank, like say 30 million or 40 million and you are making choices between 160 million or 100 million with the downside of only making 10 million in a low probability scenario, then it's still might be worth it to just take the most EV+ action.
 

In my lifetime

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However, the point is that people don't do act or think in that statistical fashion.

There are many fascinating articles and studies on irrational probabilistic behavior. It would be interesting to study whether professional athletes who are outliers in many ways also make these probability decisions differently having experience succeeding against long odds, ie, becoming professional athletes.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Yes, I agreed that most people don't make statistically based decisions. However my point is that on certain occasions, the riskier route might be the best decision as well.
 

sezwho

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The salaries are so astronomical-- never mind the sneaker deals, endorsements, etc.-- that some young men in the 20's don't see a material difference in having $40M after tax as opposed to, say, $25M. Their agents do, but sometimes tails don't wag the dog.
I believe this is what we are seeing as well, and it’s refreshing because it reflects a much more ‘woke’ evaluation than EV (no disrespect to E Van’s calculations of course).

25-40 million $ is a sizable gap on paper of course, but for most people in this situation maximizing EV is a silly exercise.

Making choices to prioritize happiness, when you are already set up for generations, over maximizing Expected Value is the logical choice.

I’m oddly fascinated by implied risk in financial transactions, but don’t think risk philic/phobic logically shouldn’t even be ‘in the calculation’ at this point.

Unless you are the agent.
 

DrewDawg

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And this:


“That’s the guy we wanted to steal. Our thought was ‘They have [Jayson] Tatum and [Gordon] Hayward and drafted another wing, maybe they are out on Brown’ and boy were we wrong. The conversation got about as far as the ‘Jay’ sound out of my mouth and they said ‘Neither Jayson or Jaylen are on the table for you’. So, yeah. They love that kid.”
 

Devizier

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Hard to take “unnamed sources” articles too seriously when it could be some schmo in the Knicks janitorial staff as far as I know.
 

mikeot

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Love this quote about Brad:"I think he’s best when he was a roster of workers vs a roster of stars. "
 

DrewDawg

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Give it a chance, there's a lot there--gifs and things from his games, showing how he approaches certain situations on the floor.
 

lovegtm

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Give it a chance, there's a lot there--gifs and things from his games, showing how he approaches certain situations on the floor.
Yeah it’s worth reading. I like Carlin a lot—he’s a young writer and will learn a lot with experience, but he’s willing to put in tons of time watching film and think about the game from first principles, rather than taking stock analytical tools from the traditional or statistical camps as givens. Those guys tend to find interesting voices and perspectives over time.
 

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Give it a chance, there's a lot there--gifs and things from his games, showing how he approaches certain situations on the floor.
I finished it.

Some good breakdowns, but nothing that we haven't seen from the games. His decision making off the dribble is better but still bad. He doesn't go to his left well.

The conclusion is what's questionable imo. "You're not a near max player if you're not PG or Jimmy Butler" is flawed.
 

lovegtm

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I finished it.

Some good breakdowns, but nothing that we haven't seen from the games. His decision making off the dribble is better but still bad. He doesn't go to his left well.

The conclusion is what's questionable imo. "You're not a near max player if you're not PG or Jimmy Butler" is flawed.
I think the conclusion is a little bit more nuanced. It's more like: "players who don't show the ability to read the court don't tend to improve that ability." The only evidence we have that Jaylen might be a different case here is that he went from completely lost to not at all lost on defense in a short amount of time. The bull case for him is probably that once he has his handle tighter, he'll be able to apply his normal IQ to learning, somewhat mechanically, how to read situations.

I'm more bullish than Carlin, and I'd probably sign him this summer if he'd take 4/100 or so, as I said above. That's getting close to "normal complementary wing" money under the increased cap. More than that and I'd wait to see what he shows during the year.
 

Average Game James

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I finished it.

Some good breakdowns, but nothing that we haven't seen from the games. His decision making off the dribble is better but still bad. He doesn't go to his left well.

The conclusion is what's questionable imo. "You're not a near max player if you're not PG or Jimmy Butler" is flawed.
I read it more as “Jaylen Brown currently is not worth a near max level contract and for him to pay off on a $100mn+ deal he will need to improve on both ends of the floor. To generate significantly higher offensive value he will need to take on a larger role in the offense, but has demonstrated below average abilities as a playmaker and finisher through his first three years, especially compared to other wing players who later developed into stars, suggesting that a bet on a leap forward offensively isn’t wise.”

And, while I’m not nearly smart enough to evaluate JB’s potential, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say it will be a suboptimal allocation of resources to pay him $25mn+ if he ends up a Harrison Barnes or Otto Porter level player. He doesn’t need to be Paul George or even Jimmy Butler to be worth the max, but paying big money to above average players is a path to mediocrity.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think the conclusion is a little bit more nuanced. It's more like: "players who don't show the ability to read the court don't tend to improve that ability." The only evidence we have that Jaylen might be a different case here is that he went from completely lost to not at all lost on defense in a short amount of time. The bull case for him is probably that once he has his handle tighter, he'll be able to apply his normal IQ to learning, somewhat mechanically, how to read situations.

I'm more bullish than Carlin, and I'd probably sign him this summer if he'd take 4/100 or so, as I said above. That's getting close to "normal complementary wing" money under the increased cap. More than that and I'd wait to see what he shows during the year.
Even if his assumption that the off dribble passing/creation skills won't get better is true, I disagree that this flaw precludes him or anyone being a near max player. Kemba and Kyrie don't play any defense, and people were fighting over them. Simmons shoots worse than you do and got the best possible max deal early. Imperfection is not a disqualifier for being paid, nor should it be.
 

Jimbodandy

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I read it more as “Jaylen Brown currently is not worth a near max level contract and for him to pay off on a $100mn+ deal he will need to improve on both ends of the floor. To generate significantly higher offensive value he will need to take on a larger role in the offense, but has demonstrated below average abilities as a playmaker and finisher through his first three years, especially compared to other wing players who later developed into stars, suggesting that a bet on a leap forward offensively isn’t wise.”

And, while I’m not nearly smart enough to evaluate JB’s potential, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say it will be a suboptimal allocation of resources to pay him $25mn+ if he ends up a Harrison Barnes or Otto Porter level player. He doesn’t need to be Paul George or even Jimmy Butler to be worth the max, but paying big money to above average players is a path to mediocrity.
I'm willing to stipulate to the premise that his ability to hit the right guy and exploit defenses won't improve. There's no data to indicate that his left hand and overall finishing won't improve.

Assuming that the latter do improve, nobody is going to care if he averages 2-3 assists a game. Nobody cared that J and Dominique didn't pass.

My problem is with the argument that a lack of creation for others means that you're not a max player.
 

Average Game James

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I'm willing to stipulate to the premise that his ability to hit the right guy and exploit defenses won't improve. There's no data to indicate that his left hand and overall finishing won't improve.

Assuming that the latter do improve, nobody is going to care if he averages 2-3 assists a game. Nobody cared that J and Dominique didn't pass.

My problem is with the argument that a lack of creation for others means that you're not a max player.
That’s not the argument at all though. If Jaylen was an elite isolation player or could shoot better off screens, he could generate more offensive value without creating for others... he hasn’t demonstrated even above average ability in either of these areas to date. I don’t doubt his finishing and left hand will get better either, but there’s a lot of room between “slightly below average” and “Dominique.” And if he’s not going to add a lot more value in either of those areas, he needs to create for others. Again, I’m not offering a scouting opinion here, just an interpretation of the argument made.
 

lovegtm

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I'm willing to stipulate to the premise that his ability to hit the right guy and exploit defenses won't improve. There's no data to indicate that his left hand and overall finishing won't improve.

Assuming that the latter do improve, nobody is going to care if he averages 2-3 assists a game. Nobody cared that J and Dominique didn't pass.

My problem is with the argument that a lack of creation for others means that you're not a max player.
I don’t buy the bolded argument either. Paul George was a max player as a defense+secondary option in his early Indy days, and easily worth it. The issue is that to be a good secondary option, you have to make at least basic secondary reads and quick decisions. Brogdon is a good example of what you want in that regard.

If Brown can’t learn to do that, he probably tops out as being worth right around a $25M contract, rather than being excess value. That’s still a tradeable player, so I think Carlin is overreacting a bit in his need to trade him. Brown isn’t Andrew Wiggins: he can “play defense” and “actually enjoys basketball.”

I think you probably match JB next summer if it comes to that, and trust that a wing-desperate team will dream on his upside. OKC basically did that with Oladipo, and it worked out well.
 

Average Game James

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I don’t buy the bolded argument either. Paul George was a max player as a defense+secondary option in his early Indy days, and easily worth it. The issue is that to be a good secondary option, you have to make at least basic secondary reads and quick decisions. Brogdon is a good example of what you want in that regard.

If Brown can’t learn to do that, he probably tops out as being worth right around a $25M contract, rather than being excess value. That’s still a tradeable player, so I think Carlin is overreacting a bit in his need to trade him. Brown isn’t Andrew Wiggins: he can “play defense” and “actually enjoys basketball.”

I think you probably match JB next summer if it comes to that, and trust that a wing-desperate team will dream on his upside. OKC basically did that with Oladipo, and it worked out well.
By years 3-4 Paul George was dramatically better than Jaylen and it’s not particularly close. On a smartphone, so just to use a crude metric... Off/Def/Total WS in his 3rd and 4th years: 2.7/6.3/9.0, 4.4/6.4/10.8. If Jaylen is early PG13, he’s easily a max player. For comparison sake, in his (statistically stronger) second year he was 1.2/3.2/4.5. Last year Brogdon was 4.2/2.3/6.5.
 

lovegtm

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By years 3-4 Paul George was dramatically better than Jaylen and it’s not particularly close. On a smartphone, so just to use a crude metric... Off/Def/Total WS in his 3rd and 4th years: 2.7/6.3/9.0, 4.4/6.4/10.8. If Jaylen is early PG13, he’s easily a max player. For comparison sake, in his (statistically stronger) second year he was 1.2/3.2/4.5. Last year Brogdon was 4.2/2.3/6.5.
Yes. I agree. Because I agree, after mentioning how PG was awesome as a secondary option, I then added that Jaylen isn’t a good enough decision maker to be a secondary option in the same vein. Words are cool, and I use them to mean things.

Brogdon was added as an example of what good decision-making in that role looks like. He’s clearly not comparable to early PG.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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That’s not the argument at all though. If Jaylen was an elite isolation player or could shoot better off screens, he could generate more offensive value without creating for others... he hasn’t demonstrated even above average ability in either of these areas to date. I don’t doubt his finishing and left hand will get better either, but there’s a lot of room between “slightly below average” and “Dominique.” And if he’s not going to add a lot more value in either of those areas, he needs to create for others. Again, I’m not offering a scouting opinion here, just an interpretation of the argument made.
Otto Porter just sat in a corner and shot threes, played good to great defense, and got a max contract.

In this salary cap era, unfortunately it's not whether the JB is going to be worth his next contract, it's whether the Cs will be able to do anything with his salary slot that improves the team because JB is going to get paid by someone. Not sure he will get a max offer but as I said upthread, 4/$100MM seems to be the floor.

I'm willing to give JB a mulligan for last year and am anxious to see how he performs this year. I've also said this before but I can't think of anyone else with his physical gifts who works as hard as he does not being a successful NBA player (without any major injury).
 

JCizzle

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Otto Porter just sat in a corner and shot threes, played good to great defense, and got a max contract.

In this salary cap era, unfortunately it's not whether the JB is going to be worth his next contract, it's whether the Cs will be able to do anything with his salary slot that improves the team because JB is going to get paid by someone. Not sure he will get a max offer but as I said upthread, 4/$100MM seems to be the floor.

I'm willing to give JB a mulligan for last year and am anxious to see how he performs this year. I've also said this before but I can't think of anyone else with his physical gifts who works as hard as he does not being a successful NBA player (without any major injury).
I'll give him a mulligan for the first couple of months. He played like the only guy who gave a shit for the last half of the year.
 

benhogan

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What is Jaylen's "upside"?

This article does a nice job of going into the things that concern me with Jaylen Brown (handle, distribution/passing skills, shooting - esp. FTs).

I think it's fine to publicly claim Jaylen isn't available, but Danny should be open-minded to dealing him for our BIG of the future.
 

nighthob

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This article does a nice job of going into the things that concern me with Jaylen Brown (handle, distribution/passing skills, shooting - esp. FTs).

I think it's fine to publicly claim Jaylen isn't available, but Danny should be open-minded to dealing him for our BIG of the future.
People should put this to rest for a while. Unless Brown signs an extension this fall (in which case he becomes tradable next summer) he either has to be traded for another rookie scale player or packaged with Smart in order to get a worthwhile C. And the fact is that no C they trade for with that money would have the impact of Brown & Smart.

That leaves you with trading Brown for a rookie scale C. There are exactly four of those guys (that are worth the while), none of whom has been rumored to be available, out there for Boston to look at. Sabonis, Adebayo, Bamba, and Carter. Sabonis would certainly replace Horford offensively, but with Walker out on the perimeter I'd be leery of Sabonis as a defensive anchor. Are any of the other three that much better than Timelord as a potential C of the future to be worth jettisoning Williams and trading Brown?

Now, if Brown signs an extension in October, maybe they do trade him for a C come next summer, but it's more likely still that they let him build value this year and then cash him in for some draft picks come July 2020.
 

lovegtm

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People should put this to rest for a while. Unless Brown signs an extension this fall (in which case he becomes tradable next summer) he either has to be traded for another rookie scale player or packaged with Smart in order to get a worthwhile C. And the fact is that no C they trade for with that money would have the impact of Brown & Smart.

That leaves you with trading Brown for a rookie scale C. There are exactly four of those guys (that are worth the while), none of whom has been rumored to be available, out there for Boston to look at. Sabonis, Adebayo, Bamba, and Carter. Sabonis would certainly replace Horford offensively, but with Walker out on the perimeter I'd be leery of Sabonis as a defensive anchor. Are any of the other three that much better than Timelord as a potential C of the future to be worth jettisoning Williams and trading Brown?

Now, if Brown signs an extension in October, maybe they do trade him for a C come next summer, but it's more likely still that they let him build value this year and then cash him in for some draft picks come July 2020.
I agree with basically all your points, although there’s one important caveat: after Dec 15, they can package Kanter/Theis/Poirier and others with Brown potentially, so you can match just about any center then without including Smart.
 

nighthob

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Oh, yeah, right, I forgot. You could get Capela or Turner come the holiday season. Turner might be interesting.
 

lovegtm

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Oh, yeah, right, I forgot. You could get Capela or Turner come the holiday season. Turner might be interesting.
Yeah, people are worried about Kanter, but he’s clearly a stopgap while they see who comes available. The salary matching this year is much better set up.
 

benhogan

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People should put this to rest for a while. Unless Brown signs an extension this fall (in which case he becomes tradable next summer) he either has to be traded for another rookie scale player or packaged with Smart in order to get a worthwhile C. And the fact is that no C they trade for with that money would have the impact of Brown & Smart.

That leaves you with trading Brown for a rookie scale C. There are exactly four of those guys (that are worth the while), none of whom has been rumored to be available, out there for Boston to look at. Sabonis, Adebayo, Bamba, and Carter. Sabonis would certainly replace Horford offensively, but with Walker out on the perimeter I'd be leery of Sabonis as a defensive anchor. Are any of the other three that much better than Timelord as a potential C of the future to be worth jettisoning Williams and trading Brown?

Now, if Brown signs an extension in October, maybe they do trade him for a C come next summer, but it's more likely still that they let him build value this year and then cash him in for some draft picks come July 2020.
The roster is pretty complete going into the season. But I'd do Brown for Sabonis if there were indications that Sabonis would sign a reasonable extension before Oct 14

After Dec 15th the best one of Kanter, Poirier, Theis gets to be our back up Center the rest of the season. The other two are shipped out as filler. At least that's my hope. By including Brown it opens up many top tier players.
 

lovegtm

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Sabonis isn't quite Kanter level bad on defense, but he is close
Yeah, I don’t get the Sabonis love. He’s basically Kelly Olynyk with more of a low post game and no 3 ball. He’s not a bad player by any stretch, but I’d way rather see if Jaylen Brown can learn how to read the floor on offense than see if Sabonis can grow longer arms.

Turner is obviously a totally different story, although presumably Indy knows that.
 

benhogan

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Sabonis isn't quite Kanter level bad on defense, but he is close
DRPM, ON/OFF, DRtg, VORP, DBPM doesn't agree with you.

Compare their age 21 and 22 seasons it's rather stark.


 
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benhogan

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Yeah, I don’t get the Sabonis love. He’s basically Kelly Olynyk with more of a low post game and no 3 ball. He’s not a bad player by any stretch, but I’d way rather see if Jaylen Brown can learn how to read the floor on offense than see if Sabonis can grow longer arms.

Turner is obviously a totally different story, although presumably Indy knows that.
look at Sabonis trajectory and his advanced numbers. He's been making leaps for 3 straight seasons. Sabonis just completed his 3rd season at 22, Kelly was a rookie at 22. Sabonis is still getting better and could develop a 3pt shot with his mechanics and be a top of the key distributor. His body/strength has improved a lot from his rookie season where OKC had him as a 4. I think he makes the next step as a very productive 30mpg starting Center next season. In the right system/situation, like the Celtics, he could be an All-Star in a couple of seasons. That's how I'd see him developing here. YMMV

I also qualified my interest in Sabonis based on a reasonable contract, something that probably isn't happening with Brown.

I always liked Olynyk and like Brown's potential, so there is no reason to go negative on them. I'm just a hair concerned having to pay Brown a max deal for Otto Porter/Harrison Barnes-like production.
 
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lovegtm

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look at Sabonis trajectory and his advanced numbers. He's been making leaps for 3 straight seasons. Sabonis just completed his 3rd season at 22, Kelly was a rookie at 22. Sabonis is still getting better and could develop a 3pt shot with his mechanics and be a top of the key distributor. His body/strength has improved a lot from his rookie season where OKC had him as a 4.

I qualified my interest in Sabonis based on a reasonable contract, something that probably isn't happening with Brown.

I like Olynyk and Brown's potential, so I'm not going to start bashing them.
Yeah, I don’t hate Sabonis at all. (I also think Kelly is/was a decent player). I just don’t think he really makes sense in terms of filling the biggest need of this Celtics team in the next 2-4 years, which is an elite defensive center, given that Kemba will be a minus defensively who has to be covered for.

So even if you get him on a decent contract, that contract/player is still a large commitment, and is capping your team’s upside pretty heavily.

I guess at the end of the day, I’m not so afraid of Brown’s next contract as some, even if it’s signed in order to move him. Oladipo went for 4/84 iirc, with a cap that was about 20% lower than it will be when Jaylen signs. He was a lower value player than Jaylen at the time, and was still viewed as an asset at that price. Hell, Harrison Barnes was traded as an asset at 25/year. Otto Porter at 27/year was very moveable.

I know people are worried about Andrew Wiggins type scenarios, but he’s more the exception than the rule at the wing. The dude just doesn’t seem to be that into getting better at basketball.

Pretty much the worst case for Jaylen at 25-30/year is that you end up trading him for not much back, and the best cases are a lot better. His upcoming payday just isn’t thaaaat huge a deal imo, although the team should be open to moving him for a player who doesn’t cap the team’s upside.
 

lovegtm

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Shorter version: it’s really hard to find jacked 6-7/6-8 humans who can jump out of the building, shoot 3s, and understand NBA defense. Teams will always find a way to talk themselves into one of them, even at high $$ numbers, so they’re not super-risky assets to hold.

Hell, we all (rightly) shit on Jeff Green, but the Celtics collected 2 first rounders and Ray Allen over the years just by repeatedly trading Jeff Green’s Potential, even long after that should have been impossible.
 

Devizier

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Jeff Green was the classic "jack of all trades" type guy; could do a lot of things but excel at none of them. That is my concern for Brown, as it stands. I don't think that can be overcome by effort.