Jaylen Brown - underrated?

benhogan

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Lowe even prefaces the discussion with this, in the paragraph before: “For now, the Pacers are all-in playing their two bigs together.The results improved last season, in limited minutes. It is a really nice NBA subplot that both Turner and Sabonis want it to work -- that neither sees the other as a threat.”

But for my money, when grasping at post hoc justifications for an argument I made on the internet and will therefore now cling to as if my life depended on it, selectively quoting Zach Lowe > quoting rando local bloggers wishcasting > citing a Gregg Doyel opinion piece >>>>>> actually looking at it objectively and admitting I mildly overstated my initial premises.
Basically, less than 1% chance of all fake deals happening.
 

nighthob

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Ha, come on dude... Please stop putting words in my mouth. I do a good enough job working up the crowd around here already

1. First off you originally said Sabonis wasn't getting Marcus Smart money to sign an extension now ( Post #951)
Right, there is a zero point zero percent chance that Sabonis accepts 4/52 from the Pacers. He’s going to get offer sheet at least as large as Brogdon’s. It’s not just Sabonis I’ve been saying this about, I’ve been saying this about all the positive performers from the 2016 draft pool, they’re going to get overpaid because the UFA class is terrible and getting worse by the day.


4. I've been far more bullish on Sabonis then yourself. He is trending to be much, much better than Olynyk.
There is literally no one that’s said anything different. The rest of us have all said that he’s the rich man’s version of K-Rex. I get that you have a love affair with every player taller than 6’9”, but there’s just no chance that your dream deal happens because Sabonis just isn’t what Boston values in a big and isn’t good enough to get them to reconsider.

Internet blogger speculation aside, there are no concrete rumors that the two front offices are even discussing a deal, and if they were I’d imagine Boston had more interest in Turner who at least checks some of their boxes.
 

lovegtm

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The Pacers can feel free to go the three C lineup route to compete with Philly. That’s not Boston’s way and not the way the game is trending. Boston is going to be looking to add a big wing over the next two drafts to replace Hayward after he’s gone, because that’s just the way that Boston’s been going for several years. They clearly think that they got their big man of the future in TimeLord and aren’t looking to trade for a traditional C.
Yeah, the bolded is right on. Probably closer to "they hope they have their big man of the future, and they're not going to deal assets for that position until they know whether they have him or not", but same idea. I seriously doubt that Boston thinks that Kanter is better than any number of big men we could name, but he's just a low-resource stopgap.
 

HomeRunBaker

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On the off chance that this thread is still about Jaylen Brown, here's another from Celtics Blog that's a more positive spin.

I was one of the minority of those in favor of drafting Jaylen on draft night and still have a favorable opinion of his future even with a big new contract. The timing of his payday fits perfectly with the expiration of Hayward’s and in today’s game you need multiple athletic scoring wings capable of defending multiple positions on the floor.

As is always the case if his market can return a greater value I’m not opposed to dealing him this winter. He showed me a lot last year in dealing with adversity and looks like a keeper.

Off topic.....yes, Sabonis is definitely going to get paid next summer unless he takes a step back this year.
 

Swedgin

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FWIW, Tom Ziller did his ranks for 2020 Free Agents. Brown is 4. Sabonis is 18.

Regardless of where you come down on the exact number, positional scarcity makes Brown more valuable. 3 and D wings are a far more precious commodity than bigs, let alone bigs who do not protect the rim.
 

lexrageorge

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FWIW, Tom Ziller did his ranks for 2020 Free Agents. Brown is 4. Sabonis is 18.

Regardless of where you come down on the exact number, positional scarcity makes Brown more valuable. 3 and D wings are a far more precious commodity than bigs, let alone bigs who do not protect the rim.
And, of the 3 ranked above Brown, at least two of them will not even be sniffing the market (Davis and Siakam), and the same may probably be said of Draymond as well if the rumors are correct.
 

lovegtm

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And, of the 3 ranked above Brown, at least two of them will not even be sniffing the market (Davis and Siakam), and the same may probably be said of Draymond as well if the rumors are correct.
Yeah, Siakam will get maxed, and Draymond already extended. I could see Davis hitting the market if LeBron ages unexpectedly fast—the team has no assets to improve at that point (Yes this scenario is very unlikely, but hardly unprecedented).

I wonder how willing teams will be to make Jaylen max offers if the Celtics are obviously going to re-sign him. Although in the case where he’s good enough that it’s obvious, the Celtics probably give him a 5 year deal anyway, so he’ll only be hitting the market if there’s some doubt.
 

pjheff

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FWIW, Tom Ziller did his ranks for 2020 Free Agents.
Could Derrick Favors be an Ainge midseason target? He’s on an expiring contract, was acquired cheap for two second round picks, and has a contract that’s easier to match ($16M) than other options who have been mentioned (Adams) or other potential candidates on the list (Drummond, Whiteside, etc.) unless they get bought out by their current teams.
 

lovegtm

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Could Derrick Favors be an Ainge midseason target? He’s on an expiring contract, was acquired cheap for two second round picks, and has a contract that’s easier to match ($16M) than other options who have been mentioned (Adams) or other potential candidates on the list (Drummond, Whiteside, etc.) unless they get bought out by their current teams.
Good call, he’d be a solid fit (at presumably a decent price). He was always out of place in Utah having to play next to Gobert.
 

JakeRae

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Could Derrick Favors be an Ainge midseason target? He’s on an expiring contract, was acquired cheap for two second round picks, and has a contract that’s easier to match ($16M) than other options who have been mentioned (Adams) or other potential candidates on the list (Drummond, Whiteside, etc.) unless they get bought out by their current teams.
The Pelicans are likely to care more about trying to make the playoffs than adding low value future picks.
 

lovegtm

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What price would be decent (the Bucks’ pick?) and how would we match salaries (i.e. would we really trade Kanter, Theis, and Poirier together?) to get there?
The Pelicans are likely to care more about trying to make the playoffs than adding low value future picks.
There are a lot of uncertain variables here, many of which will be clearer after Dec. 15 (the earliest any trade like this could happen anyway). Where NO is in the standings, where the Bucks are in the standings, how Poirier looks, how TL looks, and so on.

It's not a high chance that specifically Favors ends up as a Celtic, but there's a decent chance that some center of his rough profile ends up on the Cs, so it's worth monitoring them and thinking through possibilities.
 

HomeRunBaker

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FWIW, Tom Ziller did his ranks for 2020 Free Agents. Brown is 4. Sabonis is 18.

Regardless of where you come down on the exact number, positional scarcity makes Brown more valuable. 3 and D wings are a far more precious commodity than bigs, let alone bigs who do not protect the rim.
How many from 1-17 are going to even be hitting the open market and/or changing teams? I only see a small handful. Sabonis may be 18 on that list but he’s going to fetch much more than some who are above him on that list.

Another thing, I hope it doesn’t become habit to classifyJaylen as a “3 and D” when some of his greatest skills are dribble penetration and finishing.
 

nighthob

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How many from 1-17 are going to even be hitting the open market and/or changing teams? I only see a small handful. Sabonis may be 18 on that list but he’s going to fetch much more than some who are above him on that list.
He's going to get PAID because so many of 1-17 will never see the market.

Another thing, I hope it doesn’t become habit to classifyJaylen as a “3 and D” when some of his greatest skills are dribble penetration and finishing.
We're just pointing out that, in a worst case scenario, Brown is an elite 3&D guy. And guys like that are always valued on the market.
 

pjheff

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The Pelicans are likely to care more about trying to make the playoffs than adding low value future picks.
In August, yes I think that’s true. But between December 15th, when new contracts can be traded, and February 6th, when the deadline occurs, that could well change.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He's going to get PAID because so many of 1-17 will never see the market.
Oh for sure. There isn’t any doubt Sabonis cashes in big time unless something goes very wrong for him this year.



We're just pointing out that, in a worst case scenario, Brown is an elite 3&D guy. And guys like that are always valued on the market.
It’s just that this 3&D term is often overused to describe players who don’t fit what the original terminology was meant to describe. I don’t consider him a 3&D like Bruce Bowen, DeMarre Carroll, Posey, Ariza, and those other prototypes because Jaylen already has a much more diverse game.
 

nighthob

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In August, yes I think that’s true. But between December 15th, when new contracts can be traded, and February 6th, when the deadline occurs, that could well change.
I wouldn't waste too much time hoping for Boston to surrender assets for a short term positional patch for a non-contending team. They know this is a bridge year, they've said as much. And Kemba Walker knew that when he came here. If getting a ring were the be-all and end-all he would have waited for Leonard to blow off the Lakers.

It’s just that this 3&D term is often overused to describe players who don’t fit what the original terminology was meant to describe. I don’t consider him a 3&D like Bruce Bowen, DeMarre Carroll, Posey, Ariza, and those other prototypes because Jaylen already has a much more diverse game.
It's kind of diverse, only he's not much good at those other aspects of the game yet and conceivably might never be. He's still a poor dribbler and decision maker which is a huge impediment to his being a great halfcourt player. He is good in transition, of course. Which is addition to his good three point shooting. But what he's a real positive at is catch & shoot threes and smothering defense. And even if the other skills never develop beyond their present stage he still provides elite defense 1-4 and good three point shooting. And that guy is pretty valuable.
 

pjheff

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I wouldn't waste too much time hoping for Boston to surrender assets for a short term positional patch for a non-contending team. They know this is a bridge year, they've said as much. And Kemba Walker knew that when he came here. If getting a ring were the be-all and end-all he would have waited for Leonard to blow off the Lakers.
Would trading for Favors give the C’s his Bird rights to retain him? In that case, he would potentially be more than a short term positional patch.
 

nighthob

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Do you really see anyone paying more for what he brings to the table? I think he's destined to end up an MLE player next year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Do you really see anyone paying more for what he brings to the table? I think he's destined to end up an MLE player next year.
It will be interesting to see the market for a smallball 5 like Favors and traditional 5's Drummond and Cousins next summer.
 

pjheff

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Do you really see anyone paying more for what he brings to the table? I think he's destined to end up an MLE player next year.
I’m not saying more than his current $16M deal but more than the MLE that Ainge could offer him as a FA if he hadn’t acquired him via trade.
 

nighthob

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I’m not saying more than his current $16M deal but more than the MLE that Ainge could offer him as a FA if he hadn’t acquired him via trade.
What is it that he really does that you can’t get for the MLE? I mean he isn’t Horford defensively. But he is good on that end. I’m just not sure I’d get into a bidding war for Favors.

It will be interesting to see the market for a smallball 5 like Favors and traditional 5's Drummond and Cousins next summer.
I mean he’s a nice defensive player. And has the size to be a modern 5, not just in the small ball sense. He’s bigger, stronger, and longer than Horford. He just doesn’t provide much on the offensive end of the floor. Effective garbage man, sets decent picks. Useful, to be sure. Honestly Poirier might be able to provide them with similar performance for a lot less money.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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lovegtm

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Isn't that effectively a sub-Tweet?

I know that the media is and will continue asking about last year's team however it feels like everyone returning from last season should avoid adding fuel to the fire via even subtle comments. There is no upside in making them.
It’s definitely a sub-tweet, no real upside, but people get frustrated and say things, they’re human. He pretty clearly had personal issues with Kyrie, and it’s probably best for the team that all that is in the past now, regardless of who was to blame.
 

Imbricus

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So Jaylen has hired an agent to negotiate an extension with the Celtics, the Globe is saying (one would think a good source). What does it take to get this done, in a kind of team-friendly deal? Or do the Celtics balk at this until they have a better sense of what kind of player he's going to be?
 

bigq

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Lots of speculation that Jaylen will be a max player. If he can be signed for a below market team friendly deal I think Danny would be all over that.
 

DJnVa

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So Jaylen has hired an agent to negotiate an extension with the Celtics, the Globe is saying (one would think a good source). What does it take to get this done, in a kind of team-friendly deal? Or do the Celtics balk at this until they have a better sense of what kind of player he's going to be?
It's a story simply because Jaylen didn't have an agent previously and obviously had to hire one heading into his potential FA.
 

slamminsammya

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This is supposed to be some proof by contradiction to show Jaylen isnt that good, but the max contract system and NBA structure in general is screwy.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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There are also different tiers of “max” deals. A second contract max isn’t quite the same as the 10-year veteran max. So saying that Jaylen is a “max” player isn’t equating him to LeBron, Curry, Durant, etc.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So Jaylen has hired an agent to negotiate an extension with the Celtics, the Globe is saying (one would think a good source). What does it take to get this done, in a kind of team-friendly deal? Or do the Celtics balk at this until they have a better sense of what kind of player he's going to be?
It will take a max deal. You don’t hire an agent and pay him 4% to agree to a “team-friendly” deal. That deal will be there for Jaylen by others.
 

lexrageorge

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Ensuring his client does indeed get the max.

There is a bit of a dilemma in that the Celtics will have 48 hours to match, and a team may have second thoughts about tying up that salary cap space if the C's match anyway. So a good agent will work to ensure that a team is interested enough in Brown ahead of time and then tell Danny that it's going to take a max to sign Brown. And the agent can also ensure that Brown gets interest from a place where Jaylen wants to be.
 

lovegtm

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This is supposed to be some proof by contradiction to show Jaylen isnt that good, but the max contract system and NBA structure in general is screwy.
The question isn’t whether you or I think he’s a max player, it’s whether he’s an asset (even mildly so) on that contract. The recent history of highly-paid young wing tradeability (Barnes, Porter) suggests that he would be an asset, even without improvement, on a max deal.
 

benhogan

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The question isn’t whether you or I think he’s a max player, it’s whether he’s an asset (even mildly so) on that contract. The recent history of highly-paid young wing tradeability (Barnes, Porter) suggests that he would be an asset, even without improvement, on a max deal.
Isn't it a stretch to call Harrison Barnes Mavs max contract an asset? I thought Bob Myers/GSW not matching turned out to be the right move for them. Barnes underperformed during the deal, the Mavs were bad throughout and he finally got dealt in the last year of it for an expiring Zach Randolph/end of the bench fodder.
Otto Porter was OK for the few years on his deal but got dealt for Portis/Parker, both bench players.

I'm not comparing them to Brown, just question if their contract/deals qualify as assets or their performance helped their teams win.

Hopefully, Jaylen improves, has a big year and he gets a max. BUT, if he doesn't improve from last season, he isn't NOR his contract's asset value worth max money IMO.

ALSO, I'd also be careful handing out MAX dollar contracts since one of the huge revenue sources and biggest growth engine for the NBA, CHINA, is cutting some sponsorships. Most NBA execs have only lived in a world where revenue/salary cap increases every year, those long/MAX deals get quite onerous if the salary cap shrinks. Future Max deals (potentially Brown's) are not comparable to past MAX deals (Barnes/Porter) with a shrinking or flat cap. It sucks but the "China situation" has to part of the equation.
 
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lovegtm

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Isn't it a stretch to call Harrison Barnes Mavs max contract an asset? I thought Bob Myers/GSW not matching turned out to be the right move for them. Barnes underperformed during the deal, the Mavs were bad throughout and he got dealt in the last year of it for an expiring Zach Randolph/end of the bench fodder.
Otto Porter was OK for the few years on his deal but got dealt for Portis/Parker, both bench players.

I'm not comparing them to Brown, just question if their contract/deals qualify as assets or their performance helped their teams win.

Hopefully, Jaylen has a big year and he gets a max. If he doesn't improve from last season, he isn't NOR his contract's asset value worth max money IMO.

ALSO, I'd also be careful handing out MAX dollar contracts since one of the huge revenue sources and biggest growth engine for the NBA, CHINA, is cutting some sponsorships. Most NBA execs have only lived in a world where revenue/salary cap increases every year, those long/MAX deals get quite onerous if the salary cap shrinks. Future Max deals (potentially Brown's) are not comparable to past MAX deals (Barnes/Porter) with a shrinking or flat cap. It sucks but the "China situation" has to part of the equation.
I consider a guy in asset if you don’t have to give up stuff to unload him. In that case, you’re getting the crack at his upside with the ability to move on if he doesn’t improve. For every couple Harrison Barnes, there’s a Gordon Hayward who improves a ton on his second contract, and that optionality is worth it. Andrew Wiggins is of course the exception, but Brown was better than him even by his 2nd year.