Jaylen Brown - underrated?

Kenny F'ing Powers

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How surprised would people be if Jaylen was better than Tatum next year? For his career?

I know his handle and free throws are questionable still, but hes made huge strides across his game from the time he entered the league. This was a big offseason for him. If hes gotten better on the ball and has worked on controlling the ball while driving to the hoop, isnt this kid a top 25 player?

Going out on a limb: with an expected bump in usage rate, if he can became an above average finisher, I really like the possibility of him finishing close to an all-NBA team.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah, I agree he's decently likely to get a big contract next summer, although there's definitely value to locking in ~$100M.

I guess my question also: at what number is he an asset for the Celtics, or at least not a negative asset? If the answer is something like 4/100, I'd guess that the two sides are close enough to get a deal done this summer.

Another benefit of getting him signed (if you can avoid overpaying) is that he won't get signed to a 3+1 offer sheet.
Depends what his numbers look like. The advanced stats don't like him (negative OBPM and DBPM last year plus 0.7 OWS) so if gets a max extension without changing the contours of his numbers, the contract will be panned. But if he can (i) increase his Ass%, (ii) decrease his TOV%, and (iii) get to the foul line more and increase his FT% - while not sacrificing anything on the defensive end - I think he starts to look like a player that is worth a max contract.
 

benhogan

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Depends what his numbers look like. The advanced stats don't like him (negative OBPM and DBPM last year plus 0.7 OWS) so if gets a max extension without changing the contours of his numbers, the contract will be panned. But if he can (i) increase his Ass%, (ii) decrease his TOV%, and (iii) get to the foul line more and increase his FT% - while not sacrificing anything on the defensive end - I think he starts to look like a player that is worth a max contract.
What happens if TOV%, Ass% & FT% stay the same, but his counting #s improve with PT. Are we left paying huge money to an inefficient player?

IMO Brogdon is a superior player. Much better on offense, very slightly worse on defense. I can't see paying him more than Malcolm, a year before RFA, so I'd expect it to go until next summer
 

Jimbodandy

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How surprised would people be if Jaylen was better than Tatum next year? For his career?

I know his handle and free throws are questionable still, but hes made huge strides across his game from the time he entered the league. This was a big offseason for him. If hes gotten better on the ball and has worked on controlling the ball while driving to the hoop, isnt this kid a top 25 player?

Going out on a limb: with an expected bump in usage rate, if he can became an above average finisher, I really like the possibility of him finishing close to an all-NBA team.
I'm as bullish on Brown as anyone. His work ethic and coachability is outstanding, which is why we have seen huge leaps in areas that he lacked.

He still lags behind Tatum in BBIQ. His recognition and decisionmaking continues to improve, but Tatum is ahead.

I wouldn't be floored if Brown ends up better someday, since a lot of it is still in their hands. But the case history of guys who did what Tatum has at his age is prejudicial in his favor.
 

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How surprised would people be if Jaylen was better than Tatum next year? For his career?

I know his handle and free throws are questionable still, but hes made huge strides across his game from the time he entered the league. This was a big offseason for him. If hes gotten better on the ball and has worked on controlling the ball while driving to the hoop, isnt this kid a top 25 player?

Going out on a limb: with an expected bump in usage rate, if he can became an above average finisher, I really like the possibility of him finishing close to an all-NBA team.
A player’s first step is so important. Jaylen will always have that advantage over Tatum, but he’s never been polished enough on the dribble to where he can always take advantage of it. His moves are still more mechanical than intuitive, but he’s gotten so much better at being able to take advantage of mismatches and figuring out how to get to his best spots on the floor.

This is the first year to expect him to get BIG minutes and shots consistently, so we’ll see what he does with it. If Tatum had Jaylen’s athleticism, there’s no Fultz trade because you’d have to have taken him at 1. I think Tatum’s decisionmaking is a better bet to drastically improve than Jaylen’s handle/overall feel, but there is still that chance for Jaylen because he has the physical advantage.
 

lovegtm

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What happens if TOV%, Ass% & FT% stay the same, but his counting #s improve with PT. Are we left paying huge money to an inefficient player?

IMO Brogdon is a superior player. Much better on offense, very slightly worse on defense. I can't see paying him more than Malcolm, a year before RFA, so I'd expect it to go until next summer
Brogdon was also almost a year older at the start of his rookie year than Jaylen will be this year. It took Brogdon until about his age 26 season to really start to hit his offensive ceiling, in terms of being able to be decisive off the catch and really make plays. If Jaylen agreed to 4/85, I can almost guarantee you the Celtics would sign that tomorrow. Oladipo signed for 4/84 in a lower cap environment, had a meh year in OKC, and then was considered an asset in the PG trade. Age and athleticism matter.
 

benhogan

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Brogdon was also almost a year older at the start of his rookie year than Jaylen will be this year. It took Brogdon until about his age 26 season to really start to hit his offensive ceiling, in terms of being able to be decisive off the catch and really make plays. If Jaylen agreed to 4/85, I can almost guarantee you the Celtics would sign that tomorrow. Oladipo signed for 4/84 in a lower cap environment, had a meh year in OKC, and then was considered an asset in the PG trade. Age and athleticism matter.
Sure and if 2nd half Jaylen shows up, which is a good probability, he's going to get a huge payday. Which the Celtics should be fine matching. Just trying to pump the brakes a bit and looking at it from Danny's perspective.

Before we start talking D.Russell or max contracts maybe Jaylen can post a positive BPM for a season (which Oladipo, Russell, Brogdon, Barnes, Smart, Rozier had/have done before getting paid)
 
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lovegtm

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Sure and if 2nd half Jaylen shows up, which is a good probability, he's going to get a huge payday. Which the Celtics should be fine matching. Just trying to pump the brakes a bit and looking at it from Danny's perspective.

Before we start talking D.Russell or max contracts maybe Jaylen can post a positive BPM for a season (which Oladipo, Russell, Brogdon, Barnes had/have done before getting paid)
If you think that's a good probability, you would likely want to lock in a lower number now, as the Celtics.

If Brooklyn thought that Russell was anywhere likely to have the year he did this year (from the league's perspective; I'm not a huge fan), they would have probably extended him at a much lower number than the 4/117 he got and had that contract as an asset to work with, rather than effectively losing him for nothing.
 

JCizzle

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I'm as bullish on Brown as anyone. His work ethic and coachability is outstanding, which is why we have seen huge leaps in areas that he lacked.

He still lags behind Tatum in BBIQ. His recognition and decisionmaking continues to improve, but Tatum is ahead.

I wouldn't be floored if Brown ends up better someday, since a lot of it is still in their hands. But the case history of guys who did what Tatum has at his age is prejudicial in his favor.
Despite Tatum's allegedly higher BBIQ, it drives me nuts that he refuses to attack and kept settling for long two after long two this year. At least Jaylen listens to Brad and attacks the rim.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Is there any thinking about next summer’s cap space? My understanding is that if you extend him now then that amount counts against the cap at the start of the summer, whereas if you wait until then it’s only the lower amount of the qualifying offer until you either ink him to a new deal or match an offer sheet, so you can sequence transactions to use any extra cap space and then use Bird rights to give him his deal.
 

benhogan

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If you think that's a good probability, you would likely want to lock in a lower number now, as the Celtics.

If Brooklyn thought that Russell was anywhere likely to have the year he did this year (from the league's perspective; I'm not a huge fan), they would have probably extended him at a much lower number than the 4/117 he got and had that contract as an asset to work with, rather than effectively losing him for nothing.
JB seemed more screwed up by rotations, role, and Brad's lack of communication early in the season. And I was as perplexed as anyone after Jan 1 with JB's inconsistent PT. But his handle, distribution and FT shooting are all below average for a guard/wing.

I just don't see JB taking any kind of discount since he was a little screwed with last season. I'd venture he also sees himself as a D. Russell player, so he'd probably snicker at 4 for $90M... If the Celtics get a "Russell" jump in production/eff from Brown they should be happy to pay the extra $4-6MM a year waiting and matching will cost them.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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IMO Brogdon is a superior player. Much better on offense, very slightly worse on defense. I can't see paying him more than Malcolm, a year before RFA, so I'd expect it to go until next summer
Is Brogdan a better player right now? Depends on the situation. A team with JB as its best player last season probably wins more games than a team with Brogdan as its best player last season but neither team is going to win a lot of games. Brogdan is obviously better in the support player mode.

Still, JB has upside Brogdan does not.
I'm as bullish on Brown as anyone. His work ethic and coachability is outstanding, which is why we have seen huge leaps in areas that he lacked.
that combination generally gets good results. Only question is how good.
 

lexrageorge

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Is there any thinking about next summer’s cap space? My understanding is that if you extend him now then that amount counts against the cap at the start of the summer, whereas if you wait until then it’s only the lower amount of the qualifying offer until you either ink him to a new deal or match an offer sheet, so you can sequence transactions to use any extra cap space and then use Bird rights to give him his deal.
I'm seeing some conflicting information on this.

Spotrac has Jaylen Brown's cap hold as being equal to his qualifying offer, or $8.5M. Larry Coon's CBA FAQ states that for RFA's, the cap hold would be the greater of the qualifying offer or the standard free agent cap hold calculation, which would in Jaylen's case (Bird rights and coming off 4th year of rookie scale contract) be 250% of his previous salary, or $16.25M.

Unless Hayward opts out, the Celtics will probably be snug right up against the cap even before taking into account Jaylen's cap hold, which likely puts them over either way.

I don't think either side would, nor should, "snicker" at 4/100 if that's what it took.
 

benhogan

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Is Brogdan a better player right now? Depends on the situation. A team with JB as its best player last season probably wins more games than a team with Brogdan as its best player last season but neither team is going to win a lot of games. Brogdan is obviously better in the support player mode.

Still, JB has upside Brogdan does not.

that combination generally gets good results. Only question is how good.
OK, so let's go back to the original question. What do you think Jaylen accepts right now after seeing all the contracts this offseason?

I believe Jaylen's expectations at the moment will probably be sizeable (4 x $100MM) and may be skewed by Rozier overpay.

My point is he'll need a good size jump in production to get to where Jaylen wants, which is fine. Let him make that jump and the Celtics will match the difference in RFA.
 

lovegtm

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OK, so let's go back to the original question. What do you think Jaylen accepts right now after seeing all the contracts this offseason?

I believe Jaylen's expectations at the moment will probably be sizeable (4 x $100MM) and may be skewed by Rozier overpay.

My point is he'll need a good size jump in production to get to where Jaylen wants, which is fine. Let him make that jump and the Celtics will match the difference in RFA.
I respect your opinion here, but I think there are two separate questions:
1. At what value is Jaylen a good contract for the Celtics (right now, baking in upside, downside, age, etc, positional value, etc)
2. What money would Jaylen accept?

The second question is the one you're answering, and it isn't super relevant to the Celtics: it's nice for Jaylen to want things.

The first one is very relevant, because it's possible that you or I haven't read Jaylen's mind correctly. If you had to nail me down as to an answer, from Danny's position, I'd probably say 4/95 would be a walkaway point.

As for next summer's cap, I think he's the bigger hold ($16Mish). And it is worth thinking about next summer as well, just because Hayward can opt out, which I think gives a bit of space.. At the same time, if Hayward opts out, it's probably because he had a good enough year that you want him back, so that might not be relevant.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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Jaylen believes in himself and thinks he'll get the max next offseason. He's not taking a smaller extension at this point. He'll ride it out and see what is there next year.
 

Jimbodandy

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Despite Tatum's allegedly higher BBIQ, it drives me nuts that he refuses to attack and kept settling for long two after long two this year. At least Jaylen listens to Brad and attacks the rim.
No doubt, but I'm putting that negative aspect of Tatum's game into the coachability bucket.

What I mean by BBIQ is that Tatum's reads on offense and defense overall are better. Jaylen makes up for a lack of anticipation by beating the guy/ball to the spot with athleticism and effort.

Regarding an early extension for Jaylen, he's absolutely a guy that you try to sell on security and being a key piece of something special. If you can't get close, you wait and match IMO. I'd do 4/100, but I'm the captain of his fan club.
 

benhogan

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I respect your opinion here, but I think there are two separate questions:
1. At what value is Jaylen a good contract for the Celtics (right now, baking in upside, downside, age, etc, positional value, etc)
2. What money would Jaylen accept?

The second question is the one you're answering, and it isn't super relevant to the Celtics: it's nice for Jaylen to want things.

The first one is very relevant, because it's possible that you or I haven't read Jaylen's mind correctly. If you had to nail me down as to an answer, from Danny's position, I'd probably say 4/95 would be a walkaway point.

As for next summer's cap, I think he's the bigger hold ($16Mish). And it is worth thinking about next summer as well, just because Hayward can opt out, which I think gives a bit of space.. At the same time, if Hayward opts out, it's probably because he had a good enough year that you want him back, so that might not be relevant.
Yea, I know we're just kicking it around and hoping to get some sort of Jaylen security before he potentially explodes (he'll benefit w/PT)
Unfortunately, I think the days of the Celtics getting some sort of discount are long gone.

1. Rozier didn't re-up last summer, felt like he got screwed as far as PT/role during the season and it worked out swimmingly for him.

2. Horford discount re-up prediction #s by myself and others were so far off I'd be embarrassed to see them re-posted ;)

3. I could be wrong, but it felt like Brad and the vets, for whatever reason, didn't treat Jaylen fairly this season. He won't be giving them a discount (unless you believe 4 x $100MM is a discount) if he also felt slighted.

4. The Celtics Mgmt will look at Smart RFA situation and say, screw it, most teams will be capped out, let's roll the dice. If Jaylen is great (cusp of All-Star player) and commands a 4 X $112, then that extra $3MM/yr (over 4 x 100MM*), is the cost of seeing greatness happen.


*I'm guessing that Jaylen would say yes to 4 x $100MM
 
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JCizzle

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I think Jaylen will aim for the max and push for every dollar he can get. He wants to be head of the players union and can't be perceived as taking any sort of discount IMO. I don't mean that as a negative either, more power to him.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Sure and if 2nd half Jaylen shows up, which is a good probability, he's going to get a huge payday. Which the Celtics should be fine matching. Just trying to pump the brakes a bit and looking at it from Danny's perspective.

Before we start talking D.Russell or max contracts maybe Jaylen can post a positive BPM for a season (which Oladipo, Russell, Brogdon, Barnes, Smart, Rozier had/have done before getting paid)
Everyone of those guys had key roles with their team. Brown should have, but never really got the PT.

Moreover, if you're citing a stat to prove your case - and that stat has Roziers impact on a game higher than Browns - it may not be the right stat to use.
 

lovegtm

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Yea, I know we're just kicking it around and hoping to get some sort of Jaylen security before he potentially explodes (he'll benefit w/PT)
Unfortunately, I think the days of the Celtics getting some sort of discount are long gone.

1. Rozier didn't re-up last summer, felt like he got screwed as far as PT/role during the season and it worked out swimmingly for him.

2. Horford discount re-up prediction #s by myself and others were so far off I'd be embarrassed to see them re-posted ;)

3. I could be wrong, but it felt like Brad and the vets, for whatever reason, didn't treat Jaylen fairly this season. He won't be giving them a discount (unless you believe 4 x $100MM is a discount) if he also felt slighted.

4. The Celtics Mgmt will look at Smart RFA situation and say, screw it, most teams will be capped out, let's roll the dice. If Jaylen is great (cusp of All-Star player) and commands a 4 X $112, then that extra $3MM/yr (over 4 x 100MM*), is the cost of seeing greatness happen.


*I'm guessing that Jaylen would say yes to 4 x $100MM
Hmmm interesting observations. I don't know that I'm positing that Jaylen would take a Celtics discount--I'm thinking of the normal security for dollars tradeoff that you typically can get with non-max young guys.

Rozier is a somewhat different case: he was a clearly worse player than Brown at the time of negotiation, and (more importantly) plays a less valuable position. In addition, his awesome, laughing to the bank outcome is a good deal less guaranteed money than Jaylen would get in a bargain deal. It's nice being a wing.

If Jaylen is a cusp of an All-Star type player, he's getting a max sheet in RFA, and it will probably be a 3+1 at 4/126 or so (haven't checked maxes with the new cap), so less team control if the Celtics match (this is partly how Utah lost Hayward).

If you think he'd say yes pretty easily to 4/100, then you start negotiating really hard if you're the Celtics imo. The goal would be to get it done as close to 4/90 as possible, with no player option.

I guess we'll see how things unfold, but we'll probably start hearing leaks about these discussions soon.
 

benhogan

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Everyone of those guys had key roles with their team. Brown should have, but never really got the PT.

Moreover, if you're citing a stat to prove your case - and that stat has Roziers impact on a game higher than Browns - it may not be the right stat to use.
Hence why we probably won't see a Brown deal until RFA. There are generic stats, BPM, out there that say Brown isn't worth $100MM just yet.

Me, you, 90% of this board and Jaylen believe he should have received more PT last season. Brad/Celtic mgmt didn't. That also says something.

I haven't seen your numbers on where the Celtics offer a deal? and where Jaylen accepts a deal? But since you feel Jaylen is on the cusp of All NBA next season it has to be pretty large.

Feel free to share

I don't think there is anything wrong for a guy like Jaylen to have a ton of confidence and bet on himself. I also don't think there is anything wrong with the Celtics waiting to see that happen. RFA awaits IMO
 
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Kenny F'ing Powers

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Hence why we probably won't see a Brown deal until RFA. There are generic stats, BPM, out there that say Brown isn't worth $100MM just yet.

Me, you, 90% of this board and Jaylen believe he should have received more PT last season. Brad/Celtic mgmt didn't. That also says something.

I haven't seen your numbers on where the Celtics offer a deal? and where Jaylen accepts a deal? But since you feel Jaylen is on the cusp of All NBA next season it has to be pretty large.

Feel free to share

I don't think there is anything wrong for a guy like Jaylen to have a ton of confidence and bet on himself. I also don't think there is anything wrong with the Celtics waiting to see that happen. RFA awaits IMO
I didnt post a number because I dont know it. This is a catch-all Jaylen Brown thread. People are allowed to discuss more than just his future salary.
 

nighthob

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Despite Tatum's allegedly higher BBIQ, it drives me nuts that he refuses to attack and kept settling for long two after long two this year. At least Jaylen listens to Brad and attacks the rim.
Tatum is still filling out, at under 220 he still struggles finishing through contact, and with the amount of contact the referees let go where he’s involved (witness how many times during the Bucks’ series where Milwaukee bigs “blocked” his shots by essentially just hitting him) there will be growing pains. But the size will come. Once he hits 235 or so (like Brown) he’s going to make people’s lives miserable.

As for the long 2s, we’ve talked about this, teams focused on running him off the three point line, and he’s still not comfortable shooting pull up treys. But, again, he’s going to get better with time.
 

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Jaylen gave a tease of all-star upside for three months in 2018, but then took a step back this past regular season. Aside from that playoff run, he's demonstrated lots of warts to go with his elite athleticism.

He has a lot to prove this year. He's a #3 pick, entering his fourth season, and he's not even a sure thing to start for his current team. It's a little early to be debating whether he's going to be offered a max contract, IMHO.
 

lovegtm

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Tatum is still filling out, at under 220 he still struggles finishing through contact, and with the amount of contact the referees let go where he’s involved (witness how many times during the Bucks’ series where Milwaukee bigs “blocked” his shots by essentially just hitting him) there will be growing pains. But the size will come. Once he hits 235 or so (like Brown) he’s going to make people’s lives miserable.

As for the long 2s, we’ve talked about this, teams focused on running him off the three point line, and he’s still not comfortable shooting pull up treys. But, again, he’s going to get better with time.
The size point is an underrated one with Tatum. He gained a lot of strength from year 1 to 2, and he is going to be a big boy after a couple more years of lifting and diet.
 

benhogan

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I didnt post a number because I dont know it. This is a catch-all Jaylen Brown thread. People are allowed to discuss more than just his future salary.
Context matters. My post was based on Jaylen receiving a $100MM offer or waiting until RFA. I don't think Rozier is a better player than Brown based on 1 season of BPM. BUT Terry did post one good season, hung his hat on being an effective starter, and got paid.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Context matters. My post was based on Jaylen receiving a $100MM offer or waiting until RFA. I don't think Rozier is a better player than Brown based on 1 season of BPM. BUT Terry did post one good season, hung his hat on being an effective starter, and got paid.
That's fair. But almost every Celtics fan to a T - and most media members as well - seem to agree that Roziers contract was a massive overpay. I think Rozier being on that list was the exception not the rule.
 

benhogan

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That's fair. But almost every Celtics fan to a T - and most media members as well - seem to agree that Roziers contract was a massive overpay. I think Rozier being on that list was the exception not the rule.
For sure. I got Rozier's deal way wrong. Also was way off on Horford's deal, so what the heck do I know? no one needs to answer thato_O

Trying to read the tea leaves here and Jaylen is pretty polarizing. He has these flaws (FT, handle, assists) but insane athleticism. He also has bought into playing solid defense and the modern NBA shot selection (hard to the hoop or 3pa) which is a huge plus. But if Marcus Smart is hitting 37% of his 3s, Brad has no choice but to play Smart a lot. As Tatum fills out, I don't even think its a comparison. Then there is potentially a healthy Hayward. Brown may find himself playing less than he likes. Competition is always good, right? but as we learned in a contract year it can get tricky with team chemistry.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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For sure. I got Rozier's deal way wrong. Also was way off on Horford's deal, so what the heck do I know? no one needs to answer thato_O

Trying to read the tea leaves here and Jaylen is pretty polarizing. He has these flaws (FT, handle, assists) but insane athleticism. He also has bought into playing solid defense and the modern NBA shot selection (hard to the hoop or 3pa) which is a huge plus. But if Marcus Smart is hitting 37% of his 3s, Brad has no choice but to play Smart a lot. As Tatum fills out, I don't even think its a comparison. Then there is potentially a healthy Hayward. Brown may find himself playing less than he likes. Competition is always good, right? but as we learned in a contract year it can get tricky with team chemistry.
I guess my concern with Tatum is the same concern everyone else has. His lack of growth from year 1 to year 2 is a huge flag for me. If he plays the same way in year 3, we'll be kicking ourselves for not allowing him to be the centerpiece of a big trade. And with the way the bounces have gone for the Cs lately, I'm overly pessimistic.
 

amarshal2

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I don’t think Browns handle is such a weakness anymore. Sometimes I think it’s better than Tatum’s. Tatum only beats himself with his fancy dribbling. Brown also showed an improved low post game last season as well as hitting a consistent fade-away jumper from the paint to the elbow. He keeps adding things to his game. If he adds another thing (eg a few moves to get open), increases his utilization, and stays consistent for a full season he’s going to be a borderline all star.
 

amarshal2

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I guess my concern with Tatum is the same concern everyone else has. His lack of growth from year 1 to year 2 is a huge flag for me. If he plays the same way in year 3, we'll be kicking ourselves for not allowing him to be the centerpiece of a big trade. And with the way the bounces have gone for the Cs lately, I'm overly pessimistic.
He couldn’t buy a beer for most of the season and had made a huge leap the year before. I’m not very worried about the lack of linear growth. There were some things he worked on over the summer that didn’t seem to pan out, such as the pull up 3 and the iso plays. Later in the season he was working on his passing and was improving. Hopefully he focuses on the right improvements this year and his progression becomes clear.

I’m really happy they let Morris walk. There’s still too many alphas on the team but giving a lot of his utilization and some of his minutes back to Tatum and Brown is the right thing for the future. The lack of an obvious 4 is also a good thing for Tatum and Grant to see if that can work. I don’t really care how the Theis/Porier/Time Lord minutes work out so long as they stick to the 5 as I doubt a serious long term solution is emerging from that group.

The Celtics should be more focused on development than winning earlier in the season.
 
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Kenny F'ing Powers

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He couldn’t buy a beer for most of the season and had made a huge leap the year before. I’m not very worried about the lack of linear growth. There were some things he worked on over the summer that didn’t seem to pan out, such as the pull up 3 and the iso plays. Later in the season he was working on his passing and was improving. Hopefully he focuses on the right improvements this year and his progression becomes clear.

I’m really happy they let Morris walk. There’s still too many alphas on the team but giving a lot of his utilization and some of his minutes back to Tatum and Brown is the right thing for the future. The lack of an obvious 4 is also a good thing for Tatum and Grant to see if that can work. I don’t really care how the Theis/Porier/Time Lord minutes work out so long as they stick to the 5 as I doubt a serious long term solution is emerging from that group.

The Celtics should be more focused on development than winning earlier in the season.
"He was young" doesnt pass the smell test for me. Theres been plenty of young guys in the league. Going horizontal on the growth chart is never a good thing from year 1 to 2. For 18 year olds or 22 year olds.
 

benhogan

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"He was young" doesnt pass the smell test for me. Theres been plenty of young guys in the league. Going horizontal on the growth chart is never a good thing from year 1 to 2. For 18 year olds or 22 year olds.
I'm confused you're concerned about Tatum's horizontal year 2. BUT feel Brown is going to jump to cusp of All NBA/top 25 next season.

Brown cliff dove last season from the previous year.
 

amarshal2

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"He was young" doesnt pass the smell test for me. Theres been plenty of young guys in the league. Going horizontal on the growth chart is never a good thing from year 1 to 2. For 18 year olds or 22 year olds.
I dunno where this comes from. I looked up two other young players — Kyrie and Harden (who was a year older) and Kyries per 36 changed about the same as Tatums from year 1-2. Harden had slightly better improvement.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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You're excited about Brown's progress and worried about Tatum?
I'm confused you're concerned about Tatum's horizontal year 2. BUT feel Brown is going to jump to cusp of All NBA/top 25 next season.

Brown cliff dove last season from the previous year.
Wasnt a large part of Browns depressed numbers related to his first 6 or so weeks of the season?

I dunno where this comes from. I looked up two other young players — Kyrie and Harden (who was a year older) and Kyries per 36 changed about the same as Tatums from year 1-2. Harden had slightly better improvement.
Kyrie and Harden may be the two worst comps here. Kyrie has barely improved from his rookie year - he was very good then, but barely improved - and Harden took a ridiculous jump that nobody (including Morey) saw coming.
 

amarshal2

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Wasnt a large part of Browns depressed numbers related to his first 6 or so weeks of the season?



Kyrie and Harden may be the two worst comps here. Kyrie has barely improved from his rookie year - he was very good then, but barely improved p- and Harden took a ridiculous jump that nobody (including Morey) saw coming.
Then please do the work to show how concerned we should be about a 20 year old not improving from a successful age 19 season. I had a hard time thinking of guys that young who came into the league good.
 

JCizzle

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Wasnt a large part of Browns depressed numbers related to his first 6 or so weeks of the season?



Kyrie and Harden may be the two worst comps here. Kyrie has barely improved from his rookie year - he was very good then, but barely improved - and Harden took a ridiculous jump that nobody (including Morey) saw coming.
I agree, I think Jaylen played significantly better after that rough start. Maybe I'm off base, but to me he looked better (or even much better) than Tatum for the second half of the season. It seems like Tatum bought into the Kyrie stink whereas it just pissed off Jaylen after a month. Hopefully Kemba brings out the best in them both.
 

lovegtm

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Maybe it’s because the Celtics had a long era of shit young players, followed by the Big 3, but it feels like some here haven’t really seen what the typical curve for a 20-22 year-old guy is like. It’s basically never linear.

Donovan Mitchell had the exact same issue, maybe worse, and Utah is in no hurry to trade him. Ben Simmons improved some in numbers, and then had some issues again in the playoffs—he’s getting maxed. Jamal Murray has shown promise but still can’t play D and needs to take a leap: max’d.

The NBA is really hard, and the list of guys who are amazing when they’re 21 is mostly all-timers. Having all-timers is great, but it’s not the typical growth curve, even for really good players.
 

bosox79

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While Tatum not making the jump from year 1 to two is somewhat disappointing, it's not exactly uncommon for players to make the jump from year 2 to year 3 or even year 3 to 4.

Also re Brown
Take away his first 2 months because he sucks and you are left with this :
55 games, 25.1 mpg, .488/.378/.669, 13.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals
Last year: 30.7 mpg, .465/.395/.644, 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals

I mean, I guess he improved a little bit when you take playing time into consideration. Looks like mostly the same exact player tho.

I don't know how to split out rate stats to eliminate the first 2 months, but here are Jaylen's full season rate stats
2018: 8.8% Reb, 8.5% assist, 1.6% steal, 1.0% block, 12.0% TO%, 21.4% usage
2019: 8.7% Reb, 7.7% assist, 1.7% steal, 1.5% block, 10.1% TO%, 22.1% usage

Here are Tatum's
2018: 9.0% Reb, 8.3% assist, 1.7% steal, 2.0% block, 10.7% TO%, 19.5% usage
2019: 10.4% Reb, 10.0% assist, 1.6% steal, 2.1% block, 9.7% TO%, 22.1 usage

Neither one looks to have improved much at all but just going by the numbers, Brown is moving more horizontally than Tatum.
 

bowiac

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Tatum's terrible shot selection this year sort of hid a bit of growth by him as a player. He got more effective around the rim (68% vs. 63%), and from 3 to 10 feet (although we don't want him shooting there).

The key thing Tatum needs to do is improve his shot selection, and by association, improve his passing (for times when he's not able to get to the rim). He showed some good passing growth down the stretch last year. If he can consolidate those gains, and stop settling for 15 footers, that would be a big improvement.
 

DrewDawg

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Yeah, it was noticeable with his passing. Using the completely arbitrary all star break he went:

Pre: 1.9 APG, 2.2 A/36
Post: 2.8 APG, 3.2 A/36

That's a sizeable increase. He only had 5+ assists 5 times all season, 4 of them came from February on.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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No extension discussions have started yet, Jaylen saying the ball is in Danny’s court.

I would imagine DA is waiting to see what JB looks like in training camp. Plus there's really no need to begin negotiations now; I think DA's MO IIRC is to try to use the deadline as leverage.
 

NomarsFool

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I think the likelihood of JB signing a contract before the ASB are zero. At this point in time, there are just too many unknowns for everyone involved. Jaylen thinks he will be in the top tier of RFAs next summer. The Celtics hope that he would be, but they just don't know. IMHO, they'd be foolish to give him big money now, and Jaylen would be foolish to accept a big discount now. Let's see how he plays this season (which many think should be better than last for him), and then make a decision.
 

lovegtm

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I think the likelihood of JB signing a contract before the ASB are zero. At this point in time, there are just too many unknowns for everyone involved. Jaylen thinks he will be in the top tier of RFAs next summer. The Celtics hope that he would be, but they just don't know. IMHO, they'd be foolish to give him big money now, and Jaylen would be foolish to accept a big discount now. Let's see how he plays this season (which many think should be better than last for him), and then make a decision.
There's a really big difference between "big contract" and max. A max deal will be about $36M/year, while a big contract might look like 4/95. That potential $10-12M/year in savings starts to loom large once Tatum hits his 2nd contract, which will likely be a 5-year max. Once the cap goes to $120M, which it will during the life of Jaylen's next contract, $25M/year for a good 3+D wing will be very tradeable, even if he doesn't progress beyond that. If he does go beyond that, the contract represents significant value, either to keep him, or in a trade.