Apologies for the Sabonis hijack
but it relates to Jaylen Brown, since that's what it would take to land him IMO.
Exactly.
In summary, BH would rather pay Sabonis 25M than Brown. That's a perfectly defensible position. But with our commitment to Kemba, I'm not psyched to weaken our defense any more.
We likely haven't plugged the hole at 5 for defense, but Sabonis isn't that guy. Turner is though. And Turner already has his deal.
just to clarify, I never said $25MM for Sabonis. I guessed/estimated 5yr for $75MM, somewhere between Smart and Turner. But I really don't know what he is looking for. I'm also guessing that Brown is thinking at least 4yr for $100MM at the moment. I believe Sabonis adds more wins now and in the future than Jaylen Brown. I also believe Marcus Smart/Tatum/Hayward are better and take a lot of his minutes while getting to develop Langford/Edwards.
Baynes is long and strong, two things Sabonis isn’t. The other reason it’s not a good comparison is that Baynes is a backup C who’s at his best in a limited role. You sort of want more than that out of a player you’re dealing an explosively athletic 3&D player for.
To add to lovegtm’s points about Sabonis, he’s an unlong positional defender, you could get by with someone like that if you had lockdown defense at the 1-4 spots. Only Boston doesn’t have that. They already have Kemba Walker at the PG spot. He tries hard, but he’s still nearly 6’1” in his Doc Martens. That’s a weakness that’s going to get exploited.
They also have Hayward starting at one of the wing spots, and while I’m certainly optimistic about his getting back most of his athleticism, there’s a very real chance that he never gets more than 80% of it back. That would make it very hard for Boston to compensate for Sabonis being the defensive anchor, because he just can’t do it.
Now if Indiana would buy Langford for Sabonis, that’s another story, because Brown/Tatum/Smart at the wing spots would cover a lot of his deficiencies. But I doubt either team would go for it. Indiana for obvious reasons and Boston because Sabonis is about to become a payroll anchor.
1. Sabonis is slightly taller than Baynes and 20lbs lighter, but he is 9yrs younger and still growing. Over the last 3 seasons he is night and day from his rookie year. He is much stronger & getting bigger. Sabonis at 23 is defensively more agile than Aron Baynes, which helps on the perimeter.
2. I compared Sabonis defense to Baynes, which would be a plus defender. They both are smart, positional defenders. They don't need to jump out of the gym, they know how to use their size/chest/strength to move players out of the 3ft circle without hacking.
3. I can't find a statistical measure that says Sabonis is a defensive anchor. Please point me in that direction?
If he was a defensive anchor wouldn't some of it show up on his ON/OFF, since he plays opposite Myles Turner (an exceptional defensive 5).
2018-19 ON/OFF
Sabonis (plus 2.9) vs. Turner (-1.4)
4. Sabonis is worlds better than Aron Baynes offensively, no need to post any statistical #s to embarrass my guy from Oz
5. I already showed Sabonis is much better offensively across the board (ppg/36, assists/36, reb/36, eFG%, 3pt%, etc) than Al Horford at this age. Sabonis is still getting better, he has never had a down year, it's been a straight shot up. He comes from excellent lineage, his Old Man was an awesome hoops player. I'd like to have Sabonis Jr for his age 23-28yrs
6. So going forward, I see Sabonis as a
defensive Baynes/offensive Horford, which is a very good player. Borderline All-Star, eventually getting there in a season or two. YMMV
7. Sabonis just finished #2 as 6th man of the year, the NBA thinks he's a darn good player.
8. After reading the recent
Jaylen Brown article we have to be wearing some hardcore green shaded goggles to not be concerned with his limitations after 3 seasons. Maybe it was his hand injury last season? I like his defense and his athletic skills. BUT I also see a terrible handle and some sort of mental block when it comes to FTs.
9. If we are worried about Sabonis playing the defensive 5 with Kemba & Co, shouldn't we be terrified about Kanter playing the 5?
10.
Nighthob, I like you cap skills, so explain to me how an estimate ~$15MM/yr for Sabonis be a payroll anchor?
I am curious whether these trade proposals involving Brown are based on any concrete reports that the players coming to Boston are actually available. It strikes me that if Boston moves Brown prior to next summer, the most likely destination is either a Western conference team or a rebuilding Eastern conference squad. The least likely destination/trading partners for someone like Ainge are teams with whom the Celtics are competing for playoff seeding or have
notoriously difficult front-offices.
by no means concrete, but this is an article about dealing Sabonis in the last 5 days (they even throw a picture of Jaylen Brown on page 3)
https://8points9seconds.com/2019/07/29/what-happens-for-indiana-pacers-if-myles-turner-domantas-sabonis-pairing-doesnt-work/3/