Can Love Be a Centerpiece of a Champion?

[HomeRunBaker]

Past #17 picks include Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Jrue Holliday, and Josh Smith. This pick has the potential to be pretty valuable. I like Love but 3 number 1's and Sullinger is a pretty hefty price when Minnesota has little leverage.

Those players are anomalies not the true value of a typical 17th pick. That is like not wanting your NFL team to trade its 6th round pick because Brady, Terrell Davis and Shannon Sharpe were drafted there and you could get a great player.

Here are the last 13 16th picks of the NBA draft.

Lucas Nogueira
Royce White
Nicola Vucevic
Luke Babbitt
James Johnson
Maresse Speights
Nick Young
Rodney Carney
Joey Graham
Kirk Snyder
Troy Bell
Jiri Welsch
Kirk Haston


15th picks had a decent number of hits over 40% which is again an anomaly. Here are the most recent 14th picks.

Shabazz Muhammad
John Henson
Marcus Morris
Patrick Patterson
Earl Clark
Anthony Randolph
Al Thornton
Ronnie Brewer
Rashad McCants
Kris Humphries
Luke Ridnour
Frederick Jones


Yes I recognize this draft is deeper but the historicals even going up into the late lottery is that over 50% don't make it while another 20-30% are marginal rotation players......certainly not enough value to jeopardize acquiring Love. It's simply not that valuable of an asset on its own.

 

[ALiveH]

pretty sure the source of that Chad Ford rumor was flip saunders.   I don't think any other team in the league where Love would consider signing an extension has the ability and willingness to give up anywhere close to 6 assets (defined as recent or future 1sts).  I think Ainge can get it done for 3-4, e.g., Sully + 17 + 2 future 1sts or Sully + 6 + 17.
 
For comparison we gave up Gomes, Gerald Green, Telfair, Big Al and 2 1sts for KG. That's 6 assets, of which Big Al was really the only high value one (comparable to Sully today).  None of the other 5 assets in that deal were as valuable as our #6 is today: Gomes, Green and Telfair were already considered limited or flawed, even though young (maybe each equivalent value to a mid-late 1st) and the 2 1sts traded were also mid-late 1sts.  Lastly, consensus is that KG was vastly superior to Love at the time.

 

[SinCitySoxFan1973]

This rumor here has  Love to the Warriors is about done. Not sure what to think about this: http://rubechat.kfan.com/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=276168

 

[knucklecup]

I find that incredibly hard to believe.

So Minnesota trades Love in order to sign up for giving Klay Thompson - at this point, has to be considered one of the most overrated players in the NBA - a max deal? And David Lee? And an irrelevant first?

People do understand the concept of an asset, right?

Because thus far, I'm reading that the Bulls and Warriors have as good of a chance as the Celtics when, if that's true, Flip Saunders is not a smart man.

Edit: the Chad Ford rumor is more than likely just him using common sense. Taj Butler is a role player making Jeff Green money. Those guys aren't assets. Jimmy Butler is in the Avery Bradley position - does some team over value him and price him out of the Bulls range when he becomes an RFA? Do you really want to be paying an incompetent offensive SF who can defend above average the $5-$10 million Butler will likely get on the open market?

Minnesota should be acquiring draft picks, not players about to be on their second or third contracts.

Even if you see Klay Thompson as a max guy - which he isn't one no matter how irrational his agent is - what's the point of Minnesota paying him that? Alongside David Lee and the other crap they have, they would still be an awful team paying top dollar for prime years of a player that won't help them become a relevant basketball team.

I'll believe the Bulls and Warriors rumors when I Flip flip Love for overpaid and average talent.

 

[Brickowski]

IMHO the source of the Chad Ford rumor was Danny Ainge, trying to do his friend Flip a favor, or the Celtics' marketing department, trying to sell season tickets.

What makes the most sense is LeBron to the Clips on a below market deal, then Love to the Clips for Blake Griffin. The C's could facilitate the deal taking some Clips salary back using their trade exception (e.g. Dudley, Barnes, Crawford, BBD) for some future MN picks (I'd take two second rounders). That would help the Clips clear some additional cap space. It's too bad that the Celtics' TPE is just a little too small for DeAndre Jordan.

Thanks, AliveH, for pointing out that the rumored deals have the Celtics paying considerably more for Love than they did for KG, who was twice the player that Love is.

 

[BostonFan23]

Flip and Ainge aren't particularly friendly from what I've heard.

 

[swingin val]

Al Jefferson was a pretty damn good asset in that KG deal. He was 22 years old, and just put up 16/11 and shot over 50% from the floor. The chances of the 6 pick, or Sullinger, or any future first round picks being as valuable as that, are fairly slim.

If we had Al Jefferson, instead of Jared Sullinger, to trade right now, I am quite sure there wouldn't be a rumored 4 first round picks attached him.

 

[Brickowski]

Sullinger is a damn good player who was hampered by playing out of position. Sullinger is a better passer and offensive rebounder than Jefferson, and has more range on his shot.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Al Jefferson was a pretty damn good asset in that KG deal. He was 22 years old, and just put up 16/11 and shot over 50% from the floor. The chances of the 6 pick, or Sullinger, or any future first round picks being as valuable as that, are fairly slim.

If we had Al Jefferson, instead of Jared Sullinger, to trade right now, I am quite sure there wouldn't be a rumored 4 first round picks attached him.

Exactly. Jefferson was a young centerpiece of any rumored trade. I was not a fan of his game back then (he has REALLY evolved since his ACL) but even i can recognize his trade value greatly exceeds that of a limited upside rotation big such as Sullinger.

KG was also at the tail end of his prime while Love is only 25 so he figures to carry as much or more trade value despite not being nearly the player KG was in his prime.

 

[ivanvamp]

IMHO the source of the Chad Ford rumor was Danny Ainge, trying to do his friend Flip a favor, or the Celtics' marketing department, trying to sell season tickets.

What makes the most sense is LeBron to the Clips on a below market deal, then Love to the Clips for Blake Griffin. The C's could facilitate the deal taking some Clips salary back using their trade exception (e.g. Dudley, Barnes, Crawford, BBD) for some future MN picks (I'd take two second rounders). That would help the Clips clear some additional cap space. It's too bad that the Celtics' TPE is just a little too small for DeAndre Jordan.

Thanks, AliveH, for pointing out that the rumored deals have the Celtics paying considerably more for Love than they did for KG, who was twice the player that Love is.

 
Geez, a Paul-Redick-LeBron-Love-Jordan starting five is pretty freaking good.  Holy crap.  Jordan and LeBron cover up Love's defensive weaknesses.  Love and Jordan clean up any misses by LeBron.  Still lob city but with LeBron catching them instead of Griffin.  That team can run, play slow, shoot like crazy, and rebound.  

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Sullinger is a damn good player who was hampered by playing out of position. Sullinger is a better passer and offensive rebounder and Jefferson, and has more range on his shot.

Right now Sullinger is a pretty abysmal perimeter shooter. I don't understand how an interior 4/5 playing the interior 4/5 equates to him playing out of position. His lack of agility, ballhandling and perimeter skills doesn't give him any flexibility to play anything but the interior.

Ideally he's a garbage man grinder on a winning team......that would get the most value out of him. Sully would look MUCH better in the old Haslem role in Miami than he would being lost on a lottery team. Those undersized bigs are valuable to those teams but are available all the time on the cheap.

 

[wutang112878]

So Minnesota trades Love in order to sign up for giving Klay Thompson - at this point, has to be considered one of the most overrated players in the NBA - a max deal? And David Lee? And an irrelevant first?

Minnesota should be acquiring draft picks, not players about to be on their second or third contracts.

Even if you see Klay Thompson as a max guy - which he isn't one no matter how irrational his agent is - what's the point of Minnesota paying him that? Alongside David Lee and the other crap they have, they would still be an awful team paying top dollar for prime years of a player that won't help them become a relevant basketball team.

 
So I thought Minny might be willing to trade for a guy that had to be resigned because their cap situation was pretty good and they had to pay someone and whoever they got would be better than who they could attract in free agency.  Imagine my surprise when I saw that their cap situation is awful.  I cant believe its that bad considering the product they have on the floor.  14/15 they are at ~$69M, and 15/16 its still at ~$66M.  What an utter mess that franchise is in. 
 
I guess if they trade Love they have a max slot available, but consider their cap situation it would probably be prudent to move some albatross contracts in the Love deal to try to carve out some useful space.

 

[jon abbey]

Bill Simmons ‏@BillSimmons  23m
If TWolves trade Love, Celts are heavy favs to get him now. GS won't discuss Klay T. + Bulls are focused on Melo. Boston trumps anyone else.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Not giving up Klay Thompson for Kevin Love is really dumb. Seems like only a matter of time before Love is a Celtic.

 
Yep. Especially since he's a UFA next year and some team will inevitably sign him to a too-large offer sheet, forcing Golden State to match.

 

[ALiveH]

Al Jefferson (at the time of the KG trade) versus sully now - al jefferson probably slightly better, but actually pretty close.
 
Sully played almost 20% less minutes.  They both put up about 17/11 per 36.
 
Al Jefferson a more efficient scorer overall because Sully jacked up way too many 3s.  But from 2P% Sully almost as good and Sully better from FT%.  Also Sully 1 year younger than Al Jefferson at the time & coming off surgery.  Both guys about equally mediocre on defense..
 
Fix Sully's shot selection & give him another year to develop and he might actually pull ahead to slightly better.

 

[swingin val]

Whether their actual skill/performance is/was close or not is sort of missing the point. Jefferson was viewed in a much different light than Sullinger. He was viewed as a building block and a guy to create a team around. Sullinger is viewed as a complimentary piece.

When Sullinger's name gets thrown in with Olnyk as an either/or piece of the trade, you know that around the league he is not thought of that highly.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Not giving up Klay Thompson for Kevin Love is really dumb. Seems like only a matter of time before Love is a Celtic.

 
On the Flip side, why would Minnesota prefer Klay Thompson, who is heading into free agency, over a combination of the Celtics' future draft picks?
 
While I am cautiously excited about the prospect of Love, I want to see the return, and I am still very wary of him holding the team hostage and turning himself into the GM.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

I think you mean RFA?

Right, sorry.

 

[The Social Chair]

http://bostonherald.com/sports/celtics_nba/celtics_insider/2014/06/celtics_offers_for_kevin_love_not_drawing_minnesotas

 

The Celtics' pursuit of Kevin Love isn't as hot as reports are indicating.
 
Sources close to the situation have told the Herald that Boston's offer of draft picks and players isn’t nearly the best the Timberwolves have received — or expect to receive — for their All-Star forward.
 
The Celtics are willing to discuss a number of options, but none of them includes the quality of player with NBA experience that Minnesota is seeking or believes it can get elsewhere.
 

 
Hot air from Flip.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Flip has no leverage here.  The whole league knows he's going to lose Love after this year anyways so he won't get a strong package unless an extension is worked out.  If Love is going to be a malcontent if he sticks around, it's no good for the team so they'll deal him. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
What's the latest on Kevin Love being traded? Is Boston the best offer (if so, who would Minny take at No. 6)?
Chad Ford
  (1:04 PM)


I was told by a good source in Minnesota that as of Monday, the Celtics had the best offer on the table and were the favorites to land Love. I think Bill Simmons reported something similar today. I know the Boston Herald just said the opposite -- that the Warriors and Nuggets had made better offers. But I'm skeptical. The Warriors won't include Klay Thompson (at least not yet). And the Nuggets? They have the 11th pick. They have Kenneth Faried. But what else? Gallinari? Hickson? I don't think that's a better offer than the Celtics.

 
 

 
 

aj (oakland)

What were the Celtics offering for Love? Also, what makes Boston think Love would resign?
Chad Ford
  (1:21 PM)


6, 17, future No. 1s from the Nets + Sullinger and/or Olynk. I think Boston is one of the three or four places Love would be happy to land. I think he'd re-sign.
 

 

 
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50786
 

 

[Stitch01]

No real pressure on the Celtics here.  If Minnesota gets a better offer than something like 6, Sullinger, and a couple of 1sts, no problem. C's can draft at 6 and 17 and accumulate assets for another year.  I think acquiring Love is a special opportunity, but they shouldn't bid against themselves.  Minnesota is much more screwed by not consummating any Love trade than the Cs are by doing nothing.

 

[Devizier]

 
Geez, a Paul-Redick-LeBron-Love-Jordan starting five is pretty freaking good.  Holy crap.  Jordan and LeBron cover up Love's defensive weaknesses.  Love and Jordan clean up any misses by LeBron.  Still lob city but with LeBron catching them instead of Griffin.  That team can run, play slow, shoot like crazy, and rebound.  

 
Paul-Larry-Lebron-Curly-Moe would be a great starting five. When you put arguably the best and third best player in the league on the same team -- and they have complementing skill sets -- you have a recipe for excellence. Let's hope it doesn't come true because I am already fucking tired of the Clippers. Also, I want their draft pick.

 

[riboflav]

Man, I hope someone comes in with a better offer for low-effort, selfish, arrogant, two-dimensional, defensive liability ballplayer. Have I made it clear that I'm against this trade?

 

[bowiac]

Man, I hope someone comes in with a better offer for low-effort, selfish, arrogant, two-dimensional, defensive liability ballplayer. Have I made it clear that I'm against this trade?

I think he's also a big meanie.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Man, I hope someone comes in with a better offer for low-effort, selfish, arrogant, two-dimensional, defensive liability ballplayer. Have I made it clear that I'm against this trade?

You have a fever and the only cure is more Bass!

I find it hard to fathom any Celtics fan who watched us struggle all year getting quality shots in the games final 6 minutes once defenses tightness up would be against acquiring Love.

 

[Brickowski]

You have a fever and the only cure is more Bass!

I find it hard to fathom any Celtics fan who watched us struggle all year getting quality shots in the games final 6 minutes once defenses tightness up would be against acquiring Love.

Well that makes two of us (and I watch almost every game). The trade Ainge needs to make is moving Rondo, not acquiring Love.

And the way you create shots in the last six minutes is ball movement, not ISOs or Rondo dribbling ad nauseum.

 

[wutang112878]

And ball movement is most effective when you have a player who can draw doubles and get a defense out of position. There is no one who can do that on our roster. No one on our roster is even close to being able to draw doubles and still be a great scorer and that's a skill Love possesses.

 

[Brickowski]

I didn't see the Spurs drawing too many doubles in the NBA playoffs. They just moved without the ball. Most of the time it was a simple 3 man weave: hoops 101.

Love has obvious strengths as a scorer and rebounder. But the timing sucks. They need a better roster to which to add Love. Otherwise, it will be an exercise in mediocrity. Let Ainge hit on a couple of draft picks this year, make another lotto pick next year, and wait until 2015 to go after a max salary star. By then Bass will be gone, Green may be gone (if he has a good year), and Wallace will be cap fodder. And who knows? Maybe Jahlil Okafor (or Carl Towns or Kristaps Porzingis) will be a Celtic.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Well that makes two of us (and I watch almost every game). The trade Ainge needs to make is moving Rondo, not acquiring Love.

And the way you create shots in the last six minutes is ball movement, not ISOs or Rondo dribbling ad nauseum.

There are a number of ways to create shots. Unfortunately for us we didn't have the personnel last year to do so no matter the strategy. The Pierce elbow iso was sorely missed.

Personally I feel the move is to acquire Love then move Rondo and Bradley to better structure the roster rather than overpaying both guards.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Well that makes two of us (and I watch almost every game). The trade Ainge needs to make is moving Rondo, not acquiring Love.

And the way you create shots in the last six minutes is ball movement, not ISOs or Rondo dribbling ad nauseum.

I'm still on record as believing that acquiring Love doesn't rule out a Rondo deal. Pure speculation, but if Embiid makes it to Milwaukee, I think a Rondo+ for Larry Sanders+ deal makes a lot of sense for both teams. I'm not particularly high on Rondo, but I think a franchise like Milwaukee would take a risk on him because his ceiling is much higher than the type of player Milwaukee can typically attract. Additionally, since there's a good chance there won't be a bunch of max deals out there for Rondo, Milwaukee has to feel pretty good about their chances of keeping him.

 

[wutang112878]

I didn't see the Spurs drawing too many doubles in the NBA playoffs. They just moved without the ball.

That's like saying "let's just get as good at passing as the 86 Celtics". The level they were playing at was unreal. Also they have Parker who can drive and in effect create that double (via help defense after the penetration). They also Duncan who still draws traditional doubles in the post. So I really disagree

 

[Brickowski]

There is zero chance that Rondo will sign an extension in Milwaukee unless its part of a sign and trade sending him elsewhere.

As for the Celtics, a Rondo-Love core would be simply horrible to watch. No one else would touch the ball.

As for SA, the Heat didn't double Duncan in the post because they quickly learned that it wouldn't work. Their defense against Duncan was to have Birdman (or Haslem) foul him.

Isn't Stevens a good coach? Didn't he run a motion offense until Rondo returned from injury? Let Stevens do his thing with players who will be receptive instead of two ball hogging stars.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

There is zero chance that Rondo will sign an extension in Milwaukee unless its part of a sign and trade sending him elsewhere.

As for the Celtics, a Rondo-Love core would be simply horrible to watch. No one else would touch the ball.

As for SA, the Heat didn't double Duncan in the post because they quickly learned that it wouldn't work. Their defense against Duncan was to have Birdman (or Haslem) foul him.

Isn't Stevens a good coach? Didn't he run a motion offense until Rondo returned from injury? Let Stevens do his thing with players who will be receptive instead of two ball hogging stars.

Yes, nobody signs extensions.

But if he opts out and realizes nobody else is offering him a max deal, and Milwaukee is, I bet the guy who signed an under market deal 3 years ago and already has a championship would consider Milwaukee pretty seriously. They can make him a lot richer than he already is. A lot. This isn't LeBron. Rondo doesn't have national endorsement deals or a stake in Beats by Dre.

 

[Brickowski]

Yes, nobody signs extensions.

But if he opts out and realizes nobody else is offering him a max deal, and Milwaukee is, I bet the guy who signed an under market deal 3 years ago and already has a championship would consider Milwaukee pretty seriously. They can make him a lot richer than he already is. A lot. This isn't LeBron. Rondo doesn't have national endorsement deals or a stake in Beats by Dre.

Doesn't Rondo aspire to be a fashionista at GQ? Milwaukee would be the end of that. But hey, if the Bucks offer Larry Sanders for Rondo, I'm all for it. Then Rondo becomes their problem.

 

[bowiac]

Yes, nobody signs extensions.

But if he opts out and realizes nobody else is offering him a max deal, and Milwaukee is, I bet the guy who signed an under market deal 3 years ago and already has a championship would consider Milwaukee pretty seriously. They can make him a lot richer than he already is. A lot. This isn't LeBron. Rondo doesn't have national endorsement deals or a stake in Beats by Dre.

I think this is probably correct, insofar as Rondo would sign with Milwaukee if it makes financial sense. NBA economics are screwy for the max guys, but I think that ship has mostly sailed for Rondo right now. If the Lakers offer him 3/$24M and the Bucks offer 4/$44M or something, he's probably going to Milwaukee.
 
I also think though that's why Milwaukee shouldn't do it. If they want Rondo enough to offer him the best deal, they can just wait until he's a free agent. They don't have cap problems, and they don't need his bird rights. If they don't want Rondo enough to offer him the best deal, then he's gonna walk anyway.

 

[The Social Chair]

Doesn't Rondo aspire to be a fashionista at GQ? Milwaukee would be the end of that. But hey, if the Bucks offer Larry Sanders for Rondo, I'm all for it. Then Rondo becomes their problem.

 
Living in OKC hasn't really stopped Westbrook from doing his GQ thing. Anyway....
 

Let Ainge hit on a couple of draft picks this year, make another lotto pick next year, and wait until 2015 to go after a max salary star
 

 
There's at least a 50% chance that he doesn't hit on these picks. What's the plan then? You're not making a great argument for passing on a top 12 player.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

As for the Celtics, a Rondo-Love core would be simply horrible to watch. No one else would touch the ball.

 

 
What a bizarre thing to say.  Rondo has led the league in assists per game for two of the past three seasons, and would've been second last year had he qualified.  Love led all PFs in assists/game last year.  

 

[Brickowski]

What a bizarre thing to say.  Rondo has led the league in assists per game for two of the past three seasons, and would've been second last year had he qualified.  Love led all PFs in assists/game last year.

With Rondo it's dribble dribble dribble, pass, then shot. He slows the game down. Maybe Love is a willing passer but he also attempted over 18 field goals per 36 minutes last year. He's a volume shooter.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So the Spurs comparison:
 
Is stupid. The way you run the Spurs offense is having a top 10 player of all-time and two likely hall of famers sign with your team for significantly less than what they are worth,get an absolute steal in a trade for a backup who is about to get overpaid, and surround those 4 with a bunch of pieces with particular skills, then execute to perfection.
 
I doubt that is a team building option for us.

 

[ALiveH]

for the record i'm fine with acquiring love and trading away rondo (assuming we get OK value back for rondo).
 
i'm also fine with love hoggin the ball as much as he wants if he's shooting close to 60% TS%

 

[riboflav]

With Rondo it's dribble dribble dribble, pass, then shot. He slows the game down. Maybe Love is a willing passer but he also attempted over 18 field goals per 36 minutes last year. He's a volume shooter.

He is a very good outlet passer so there's that, I guess.
 
Stevens, of course, is a huge Pop fan and we all know he loves running a complex motion and then motion sets off that if there's a breakdown (Stevens always emphasizes that making a defense scramble is his number one priority), so I'm with you in that on the surface this trade makes very little sense as Love is the antithesis of ball movement. I'm assuming/praying that Ainge has additional plans but I fear this will turn the Celtics into a perennial 4/5 seed in the East especially if they give up multiple future first-round picks. 

 

[Brickowski]

So the Spurs comparison:
 
Is stupid. The way you run the Spurs offense is having a top 10 player of all-time and two likely hall of famers sign with your team for significantly less than what they are worth,get an absolute steal in a trade for a backup who is about to get overpaid, and surround those 4 with a bunch of pieces with particular skills, then execute to perfection.
 
I doubt that is a team building option for us.

So the Celtics shouldn't even try to play the right way? Do you need Duncan on your team to play a motion offense and share the ball? Funny, but the guys at Bulter didn't have Tim Duncan, or Parker or Ginobili. Neither did the Spurs bench, with the likes of Belinelli, Mills and Bonner. They played the same system and din't miss a beat.

 

[swingin val]

Love is the antithesis of ball movement 

Your hatred is strong.

Curious why you feel that Love is inadequate at moving the ball?

 

[DJnVa]

With Rondo it's dribble dribble dribble, pass, then shot. He slows the game down. Maybe Love is a willing passer but he also attempted over 18 field goals per 36 minutes last year. He's a volume shooter.

 
He slows the game down? He was playing with PP, KG and Ray Allen. I think he was slowed down.

 

[Brickowski]

He slows the game down? He was playing with PP, KG and Ray Allen. I think he was slowed down.

He wasn't playing with those guys last year and he still slowed it down. I was very disappointed with the pace at which the Celtics played when Rondo was in the game. Bad habits I guess.

 

[riboflav]

Top Cellar - The Celtics ain't going anywhere without a future hall of famer or two plus great complimentary players.

 

[riboflav]

Your hatred is strong.

Curious why you feel that Love is inadequate at moving the ball?

 
He shoots when he touches the ball; is not a very good passer (lacks vision) in the HC; is not a threat to drive; and cannot move without the ball. 
 
I don't hate him but I do have friends who in Minn. who hate him and have already started teasing me.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Top Cellar - The Celtics ain't going anywhere without a future hall of famer or two plus great complimentary players.

Replace "Celtics" with "No team"......then do something about the ain't.

The Spurs system is excellent.....so is playing off 4 excellent iso scorers in Duncan, Manu, Parker and Kawhi. Much of their ball movement begins with dribble drive penetration that creates angles.....those angles aren't there without a successful first step.

 

[swingin val]

 
He shoots when he touches the ball; is not a very good passer (lacks vision) in the HC; is not a threat to drive; and cannot move without the ball. 
 
I don't hate him but I do have friends who in Minn. who hate him and have already started teasing me.

I live in Minneapolis. Your friends are nuts.