Can Love Be a Centerpiece of a Champion?

[Cellar-Door]

 
Not saying I disagree with this, but to be fair it is easier for a baseball GM to find ways to work around a given player's deficiencies.

Yeah, of course you focus on what a guy can do when you go through 35 a year, and have a massive minor leagues and no cap.
It isn't particularly applicable to the NBA where making a mistake on your max player basically dooms your franchise for 5 years.
 
Also it doesn't really mean what is implied in that post that you don't take into account what they can't. Kendrys Morales can hit, we didn't sign him because he can't play in the outfield and we have a 1B and a DH already. In the NBA you have 5 starters, they all have a major impact on both ends of the court. If a guy can't defend that is important, just as it is important if a guy can't score.

 

[ALiveH]

dirk isn't a particularly awesome defender and he was the best player on a champion though maybe brick would argue his stats were hollow

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

dirk isn't a particularly awesome defender and he was the best player on a champion though maybe brick would argue his stats were hollow

 
From a theoretical standpoint, this is where I come out.  If Dirk can be the best player on a championship team, so sure, so too could Love. 
 
However, from a practical standpoint, I think it's a real longshot to put that team together.  Obviously don't have much to back this up but just the way I see things.

 

[Brickowski]

The stat that matters to me is the one in the left hand column. Dirk has been in the playoffs almost every year and has won a championship. Love has never been in the playoffs.

If Ainge hits this draft and acquires a decent center via trade or free agency, I would have no issue with going after Love in June of 2015. They need to be in the lottery for one more year if they want to go about rebuilding the right way. At the moment they do not have enough of a supporting cast to win more than 40 games even with Love, especially if they trade Sullinger.Meanwhile, they've decreased their chances of hitting big again in the draft (a) by trading away picks, and (b) by winning too much.

And let's not hear the argument that other big time free agents will flock to Boston to play with Love. Have they flocked to Minnesota? It's a pipe dream.

 

[swingin val]

Jared Sullinger is not someone anyone should feel the need to hold on to at the expense of getting a guy like Love. It is so infrequent that someone like Love becomes available, that it is foolish to just think that we can wait a year or two and just get someone else.

 

[Brickowski]

Jared Sullinger is not someone anyone should feel the need to hold on to at the expense of getting a guy like Love. It is so infrequent that someone like Love becomes available, that it is foolish to just think that we can wait a year or two and just get someone else.

There is always someone else.

 

[Devizier]

It's always a long shot to put a championship contender. Even if you have Lebron (or Shaq before him) you're still not going to be an odds on favorite. I'm just glad that the big three won a championship in their first year because I was tired of hearing how much we will miss Al Jefferson and Jeff Green.

 

[ALiveH]

brick only cares about the left hand column so he must think derek fisher and Robert horry are all time great first ballot HOFers based on # of rings.
 
KG, Pierce, Ray Allen, Chris Bosh and dozens of other stars also had very little team success until they found the right situation.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

It's always a long shot to put a championship contender. Even if you have Lebron (or Shaq before him) you're still not going to be an odds on favorite. I'm just glad that the big three won a championship in their first year because I was tired of hearing how much we will miss Al Jefferson and Jeff Green.

I wish I could miss Jeff Green.

 

[bowiac]

brick only cares about the left hand column so he must think derek fisher and Robert horry are all time great first ballot HOFers based on # of rings.
 
KG, Pierce, Ray Allen, Chris Bosh and dozens of other stars also had very little team success until they found the right situation.

As covered ad nauseum, that's not true to nearly the same degree. Every one of these guys made the playoffs multiple times without being surrounded by other stars.

 

[ALiveH]

except for bosh.
Ray Allen's bucks missed the playoffs his first 3 years until they formed their own version of the big 3.
Parish missed the playoffs his first 3 seasons until he joined the Celtics super-team.
 
this took about 5 minutes of searching.  i'm sure I could find a dozen other examples if I were willing to waste enough time on it.

 

[bowiac]

except for bosh.
Ray Allen's bucks missed the playoffs his first 3 years until they formed their own version of the big 3.
Parish missed the playoffs his first 3 seasons until he joined the Celtics super-team.
 
this took about 5 minutes of searching.  i'm sure I could find a dozen other examples if I were willing to waste enough time on it.

I don't know what you're talking about. Bosh made the playoffs twice before joining the Heat. Allen made the playoffs his 3rd season in the league. What "big three" did he form? Glenn Robinson and Ervin Johnson? Parish made the playoffs as a rookie.
 
Love is 0 for 6. Who are these dozens of examples?

 

[Devizier]

Pre-alcoholism Vin Baker was a very good player for the Bucks, too. The playoff thing is a red herring. If Love played for the Sixers he'd have had several appearances on an arguably even worse squad. Kevin Garnett supposedly "couldn't win" in the playoffs, until he did.

 

[Brickowski]

KG made it to the WC finals with a team whose 2nd best player was Zoolander. Carmello can't win in the playoffs either, but at least he has gotten there most years.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

KG made it to the WC finals with a team whose 2nd best player was Zoolander. Carmello can't win in the playoffs either, but at least he has gotten there most years.

 
Are you, for some reason, referring to Sam Cassell or Latrell Sprewell as Zoolander, or are you saying that Wally Szczerbiak--who played in 28 games for them, didn't start a single one, and averaged only 22 minutes a game--was the second best player on the team?

 

[Brickowski]

Are you, for some reason, referring to Sam Cassell or Latrell Sprewell as Zoolander, or are you saying that Wally Szczerbiak--who played in 28 games for them, didn't start a single one, and averaged only 22 minutes a game--was the second best player on the team?

True, Wally was hurt that year. But you are making my point. There were no other true stars on that team. Sprewell may have been a star in NY, but he wasn't in MN and two years later he was out of the league. Cassell was also over the hill.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

True, Wally was hurt that year. But you are making my point. There were no other true stars on that team. Sprewell may have been a star in NY, but he wasn't in MN and two years later he was out of the league. Cassell was also over the hill.

 
That was the best season of Sam Cassell's career in terms of win shares, PER, TS%, eFG%, 3P%, and assists per game. Sprewell averaged 16.8 points, 3.5 ast, and 3.8 rebounds per game while playing excellent perimeter defense.

 

[Devizier]

Just cause Cassell was cooked with the Celtics doesn't mean that he was a bad player earlier in his career. He was, in fact, a very good player.

 

[Brickowski]

That was the best season of Sam Cassell's career in terms of win shares, PER, TS%, eFG%, 3P%, and assists per game. Sprewell averaged 16.8 points, 3.5 ast, and 3.8 rebounds per game while playing excellent perimeter defense.

Yes, and his entire 14 minute stint as an all star was during that year. But he was a second or third tier star, even in his prime.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Yes, and his entire 14 minute stint as an all star was during that year. But he was a second or third tier star, even in his prime.

Which player that Love's played with approaches that level?

 

[Brickowski]

Kirilenko, Al Jefferson, Mike Miller, Pekovic, Kevin Martin

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Having looked a little, I can't find any 0-6 examples. I thought maybe Jamal or Kidd but not even close. Arenas took 4 years.

 

[wutang112878]

Kirilenko, Al Jefferson, Mike Miller, Pekovic, Kevin Martin

 
 
Highest win shares for Minny: this year: Love 14.3, Rubio 5.9, Pekovic 5.9, Martin 5.3, Brewer 5.2  Thats a career high for Rubio and Brewer while Pekovic's career high is 6.7 and 8 years ago Martin had a career high of 10.2   Al's career high win shares is 7.8, his 3 years in Minny they were 7.7, 4.9, 4.6 and when he put up the 7.7 in his first year in Minny Love was not there

 

[Mugthis]

I love the idea if Minnesota was classified as an Eastern Conference team, which it easily could be, they would have a few playoff appearances and maybe even had the opportunity to lose to Miami in the ECF this year. Suddenly Love is a statistically-dominant PF who took his mediocre supporting cast deep into the playoffs. Instead, solely by the quirks of geography and conference imbalances, Love has some unique ability to not win despite being super-talented. 

 

[jon abbey]

I love the idea if Minnesota was classified as an Eastern Conference team, which it easily could be, they would have a few playoff appearances and maybe even had the opportunity to lose to Miami in the ECF this year. Suddenly Love is a statistically-dominant PF who took his mediocre supporting cast deep into the playoffs. Instead, solely by the quirks of geography and conference imbalances, Love has some unique ability to not win despite being super-talented. 

 
Obviously the conferences are exceedingly lopsided, but this is way too big of a jump. Minnesota was horrendous for Love's first three seasons there (53-161 combined in games that he played in), and even in the last three years, they would have been a borderline playoff team in the East at best and certainly not a conference finalist. Even this past season (MIN's best of the six), they were only 17-13 against the East, six of the eight Eastern playoff teams had better records in conference. I think you could say they would have probably made the playoffs in the East this year (and not the other five years), and likely gone out in the first round. 
 
I haven't posted on this thread much because it's a confusing thesis for me, clearly Love puts up massive numbers, clearly he gives back quite a bit of that on the other end, and clearly it has not resulted in many wins for his team. I'm not quite sure what to deduce from all of that, though, and he is still very young. 

 

[Mugthis]

Yeah, you're right. This year, their Simple Rating System, would have ranked 3rd in the East, just behind Indiana and not too far behind Miami. But in the other two years where Kevin Love was "Kevin Love", they were legitimately shitty and wouldn't have done anything. 
 
However, given that Kevin Love has only had 3 great seasons, and one of those seasons, he was on a legitimate above-average team that just happened to be in the toughest conference in memory, I'm not sure there's much to deduce beyond normal statistical analysis. Love isn't great at defense, but is there any real reason to suspect he's so much worse than the statistical evidence? Or that he has something that causes them to lose more than the actual relative talent on the team would suggest? Would players like prime Pau Gasol, Griffen, Curry, Harden, have made those teams that much better? I don't really see it. According to Win Shares, he's roughly equivalent to them. Most players around his statistical-level (at least using WS) have a lot more help on their teams, so it's hard to deduce much else.

 

[Brickowski]

But look at the bright side of a Love trade for Wolves fans. Let's say the Celtics acquire love for Sullinger, #6, a future first and expirings.

MN would have Pekovic, Sullinger, Gordon (assuming that's who the Celtics would have taken with #6) to go along with Rubio and some decent role players like Barea and Brewer. The also have pick #13 to go after a good young wing scorer plus an extra future first from the Celtics.

They would be younger than Boston, better defensively and if their youngsters develop, they're probably 2 years away from becoming a perennial playoff team in the WC.

Meanwhile, the Celtics have Love, Rondo, Olynyck, the 17th pick, and a bunch of dead end veterans (Green, Bass Wallace). Maybe they keep Bradley, but maybe not. They probably add a veteran center like Gortat as a stopgap measure. Does anyone really like that team?

 

[Stitch01]

I like that team much, much, much, much better long-term than Rondo, Sullinger, Olynyk, the sixth pick, and a bunch of dead end veterans because the Celtics have Kevin Love in that scenario, an elite player by any reasonable definition of the word.  They also still have at least two extra first rounders and a pick swap, Rondo, and financial flexibility to build a team around Love's strengths. 
 
If Ainge can move the 6th, a future first, and Sullinger for Love he is doing it 100% of the time.  Its a no brainer because Love >>>>>>>>Sullinger, six, and a future 1st while paying Love the max.  The hard part comes if it costs more than that, for that price its not a question.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Kirilenko, Al Jefferson, Mike Miller, Pekovic, Kevin Martin

 
Cool, so the best teammates Love has ever had include: Al Jefferson, who played with Love for 2 seasons before either was 25, Mike Miller who played with Love for a single season (Love's rookie year), Andrei Kirilenko who played 18 games with Love, a single season of Kevin Martin, and an offense only center. Keep playing that group up and pretending Cassell and Sprewell were a bunch of corpses Garnett heroically dragged to the Western Conference Finals. It makes you seem unbiased and reasonable. 

 

[Brickowski]

I like that team much, much, much, much better long-term than Rondo, Sullinger, Olynyk, the sixth pick, and a bunch of dead end veterans because the Celtics have Kevin Love in that scenario, an elite player by any reasonable definition of the word.  They also still have at least two extra first rounders and a pick swap, Rondo, and financial flexibility to build a team around Love's strengths.

They won't have financial flexibility until 2016 at the earliest because they'll likely have to overpay to keep Rondo. And they can say goodbye to any future top ten picks unless NJ breaks up Lopez, JJ and Williams.

Love is an elite offensive player. Defense? Not so much.

 

[Stitch01]

Love's total package is an elite player in any world where the definition of elite player isn't limited to like Lebron James and/or Kevin Durant.
 
Love isn't coming here if his primary goal is to compete a title next year, so Im not worried about not having financial flexibility for a year or two. Im also not certain why they are locked into overpaying Rondo.
 
We will get to see the experiment play out at least if that is the price tag because Ainge is a mortal lock to make that trade if its on the table.

 

[Brickowski]

Sure, Ainge would make that trade. Let's hope that he (and the rest of the Celtics fan base) doesn't come to regret it when Love exercises his next ETO after 2-3 years of mediocrity and a couple of first or second round playoff exits. Maybe we'll call the Celtics "Denver East."

 

[Devizier]

Elton Brand was 0-2 with the Bulls before Chicago shipped him off to the Clippers for the right to draft Eddy Curry. He then was the lone bright spot for a woeful Clippers team for the next four years to bring up his total to 0-6 in his first six seasons. The next year, the Clippers traded the immortal Marko Jaric for Sam Cassell. Brand/Cassell carried the Clippers to the playoffs in a still-tough western conference. The next year Cassell broke down. The year following, Brand broke down.

 

[Devizier]

Here's the trick for finding good players with a record of playoff futility:
 
Look for the most abysmally-managed teams in the league (the Clippers!).
 
Identify the good players that said terribly managed team did *not* trade away in horribly misguided deals (Tom Chambers, Terry Cummings, Byron Scott, Hersey Hawkins, and Antonio McDyess are thus exempted). Incidentally, those guys ended their playoff droughts not long after they were traded. Same also applies for role players like Michael Cage and Benoit Benjamin. 
 
No other franchise approaches the Clippers in historical ineptitude, but the McHale/Kahn era of the Timberwolves ranks up there, as does the post-Jordan Jerry Krause era of the Bulls.

 

[Stitch01]

Sure, Ainge would make that trade. Let's hope that he (and the rest of the Celtics fan base) doesn't come to regret it when Love exercises his next ETO after 2-3 years of mediocrity and a couple of first or second round playoff exits. Maybe we'll call the Celtics "Denver East."

He won't. it's a really obvious good trade at that cost and well worth the risk.

 

[RedOctober3829]

"The Celtics are trying hard to use pick No. 6 and 17 along with future No. 1s and young players such as Jared Sullinger or Kelly Olynyk to persuade the Minnesota Timberwolves to trade them Kevin Love. One source close to the Wolves said that while Flip Saunders does not want to trade Love, he realizes the team likely will lose him this summer and the package the Celtics are offering is probably the best he's going to get."
 

--Chad Ford
 
http://www.csnne.com/blog/celtics-talk/report-celtics-trying-hard-trade-love

 

[DJnVa]

I hope they mean some combo of both this year and future #1s and young players and not all of them.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Elton Brand was 0-2 with the Bulls before Chicago shipped him off to the Clippers for the right to draft Eddy Curry. He then was the lone bright spot for a woeful Clippers team for the next four years to bring up his total to 0-6 in his first six seasons. The next year, the Clippers traded the immortal Marko Jaric for Sam Cassell. Brand/Cassell carried the Clippers to the playoffs in a still-tough western conference. The next year Cassell broke down. The year following, Brand broke down.

 
Using Elton Brand as a comparison isn't something that makes me evaluate Kevin Love in a more favorable light . . . .

 

[Brickowski]

I agree with just about all of what Ian Thomsen says in this clip:

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/thomsen-i-think-theyll-trade-rondo

 

[Stitch01]

I hope they mean some combo of both this year and future #1s and young players and not all of them.

Me too.  Sullinger, the 6, and a future 1 is a no brainer.  6, 17 and a couple of the future Nets picks plus Sullinger is less exciting.

 

[Devizier]

Considering the parameters of the comparison are ludicrous, finding Brand was little more than a mental exercise.

 

[EL Jeffe]

I don't really care about losing Sully or Olynyk (I like both guys, but neither one looks like a true building block type of player), but four #1s seems excessive. Minnesota has to be floating that price tag out there, right?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Cleveland winning the 1st overall pick ups the ante as well as ours being outside the Top 3-4. The ping pong balls didn't do the Celtics any favors in protecting future 1sts in any Love deal.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I don't really care about losing Sully or Olynyk (I like both guys, but neither one looks like a true building block type of player), but four #1s seems excessive. Minnesota has to be floating that price tag out there, right?

 
Four #1's sounds excessive, but it really depends on which 4. If we're talking something like #6, the PHI and LAC '15 1sts and another C's first within the next 3 years with top 10 protection, that's not really going to put a dent in our resources. MIN is going to be pushing hard for #6, #17 and the BKL picks, but I'd be surprised if Danny included more than one of the BKL picks, if any, in a Love deal. 

 

[Auger34]

 
Four #1's sounds excessive, but it really depends on which 4. If we're talking something like #6, the PHI and LAC '15 1sts and another C's first within the next 3 years with top 10 protection, that's not really going to put a dent in our resources. MIN is going to be pushing hard for #6, #17 and the BKL picks, but I'd be surprised if Danny included more than one of the BKL picks, if any, in a Love deal. 

 This is pretty much where I am. I think the trade is Sully, 6, 17, and 2 future 1st rounders (lottery protected or a pick that likely will fall out of the lottery). I don't think Ainge gives away any pick that could be more valuable than the #6 in this years draft.

 

[Devizier]

At this point, the #6 is the only pick the Celtics have that is more valuable than the future *swap* nevermind the actual unprotected firsts that Brooklyn threw in.

 

[wutang112878]

If I recall, the rumors of the original Garnett trade were absurd as well.  I think one of the versions had us giving up everything we did plus Perk plus another additional 1st rounder.  This sounds like the exact same stuff, and hopefully when the dust settles Danny can wow us again and get Love for the reasonable 6th, 17th and Sully package.
 
This story also just wreaks of a Wolves leak.  They know they are backed into a corner and the Celts are one of their only real options, so they put this out there and basically say 'look this is everything Boston has put on the table' and they are sitting by their phones waiting for a call.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If I recall, the rumors of the original Garnett trade were absurd as well.  I think one of the versions had us giving up everything we did plus Perk plus another additional 1st rounder.  This sounds like the exact same stuff, and hopefully when the dust settles Danny can wow us again and get Love for the reasonable 6th, 17th and Sully package.
 
This story also just wreaks of a Wolves leak.  They know they are backed into a corner and the Celts are one of their only real options, so they put this out there and basically say 'look this is everything Boston has put on the table' and they are sitting by their phones waiting for a call.

Has Love spent time in Cleveland, Chicago or Houston since the end of the season? I ask this seriously. Love is the one calling the shot here......if his team lets it be known he wants to be somewhere (say, Boston) then those offers are not going to come from other teams knowing that Love isn't committed to them long term.

This final week is going to be intersesting but if I had to wager I'd say Love ends up in Boston for Sully, 6, 17 and a lottery protected future 1.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'd be pretty surprised if Danny gave up both #6 and #17 as part of the deal. He needs #17 as part of his plan to build a non-crappy team around Love.

Ainge has the Rondo and Avery assets (neither who I feel he is going to pay long term) to return non-crappy players. The 17th pick is essentially a flier and if that's what is necessary to get Love you don't kill the deal over Zach Lavine or Clint Capela.

 

[Cellar-Door]

17 isn't getting a contributor this year.
An interesting prospect sure, but I'd say 17 is the  3rd least valuable pick (PHI, LAC).