Can Love Be a Centerpiece of a Champion?

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Better defense. And if you sign Aldridge (or someone else) as a free agent, you don't have to give a boatload of young players and picks. Maybe Love himself becomes a FA in 2015 if he's not traded.

There will be more free agents under the new CBA for two reasons: contracts are shorter and there is no longer any salary advantage to sign-and-trades; the player can get just as much in free agency. We saw that happen with Dwight Howard, and there will be others. The Celtics can easily sign a max free agent when Bass comes off the books by using the stretch provision on Green and Wallace. And Boston becomes a more attractive destination if Ainge manages to keep and develop the likes of Sullinger, Olynyck and the players he selects with #6 and #17.

 
So, you're simultaneously arguing that nobody will come to Boston as a free agent to play with Kevin Love, but that LaMarcus Aldridge will come to Boston to play with Sullinger, Olynyk, and two rookies? Why is that more appealing than Lillard, Batum, Lopez, Matthews and more money?
 
Honestly, this thread went off the rails the moment that you posted--presumably with a straight face--that the Celtics offer to Minnesota would make Minnesota a perennial contender in 2 years. You couple reasonable points about Love's defense and potential issues building around him with comically bad analysis of the value of guys like Sullinger, Olynyk, and draft picks, and it's analysis that even you don't believe. Which is why people get on your case so frequently here; not because you don't have valid opinions or know basketball, but because you can't stop yourself from letting your points become progressively more radical the longer an argument goes on. Love becomes a worse and worse defender, Jared Sullinger becomes better and better, and the nameless #6 and #17 draft picks become the foundation of Minnesota's championship dynasty. And of course, when all else fails, you just resort to some variation of Kevin Love isn't a winner!
 
You've made your point, six dozen times, about Kevin Love. Everybody knows your opinion. It's time to take a breather from this thread now.

 

[fairlee76]

Brick. Just stop. Please. U want to compare rosters quick w minnesota and portland?? So if aldridge is on minny they win 54?

No, I am guessing he absolutely does not want to compare rosters.  This thread is becoming reminiscent of his "Howard is no Russell!" self-debate of a season or two ago.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Can i just say Loves defense is being underrated at this point too? He certainly is not a rim protector but that doesnt have to be his job and om a winning team it wont be. Hes fundamentally sound cleans up the glass and his athleticism is underrated. He does a good job staying in front of his man and plays very well off a defensive minded big. Hes not carmelo anthony on d. He rebounds hard and has amazing instincts as to where the ball is going to combat his length issues.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
That's not all he said, though. It's not just a matter of Love vs. Aldridge, it's a matter of Love vs. Aldridge/this year's 6th/17th/Sullinger/whatever else is traded/less money. There's also a real risk that Love forces a sign and trade or forces his way into Ainge's office holding him hostage to overpay for someone like Rondo to keep him on board. People here are acting like this is a slam dunk, but there is a realistic chance of huge, huge disaster, as well. If the team decided to go ahead and build with the picks and wait for a safer alternative, I wouldn't be upset at all. I also don't think someone with Love's defensive deficiencies is a guy you want to blow all your resources on, so I'd want to see exactly what they're giving up. If it's much more than the two picks this year plus Olynyk, I'm not getting overly excited. I'd personally rather wait 10 years for the opportunity to put together a championship team than lose in the second round every year for half a decade and then have to rebuild again. If you could convince me that Love would stick around the next 7 years, you could probably change my mind. I'm just not confident enough in that happening.

 
Everybody acts like these deals take place in complete silence. Kevin Love's agent is also Paul Pierce's agent. He and Danny Ainge have a very, very good relationship. There's a zero percent chance that Ainge makes this deal without knowing exactly what Love and his agent are looking for. If it doesn't mesh with what Ainge thinks is best, he doesn't make the deal. Chad Ford reported yesterday that Love would be very happy to land in Boston. So let me ask you, and all of the other folks who are convinced he'd just opt out: why would he be excited to land in Boston if his goal is to win immediately? What's the appeal? There's no way Boston appeals to Love as a win now destination. The only way it could possibly appeal to him is as an organization that he feels confident can build a contender in the next 2-3 years.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Can i just say Loves defense is being underrated at this point too? He certainly is not a rim protector but that doesnt have to be his job and om a winning team it wont be. Hes fundamentally sound cleans up the glass and his athleticism is underrated. He does a good job staying in front of his man and plays very well off a defensive minded big. Hes not carmelo anthony on d. He rebounds hard and has amazing instincts as to where the ball is going to combat his length issues.

 
Seriously. In this thread, his defense has reached a point that it would be impossible to build a championship level defense around him without surrounding him with in their primes Bill Russell, Scottie Pippen, Gary Payton, and Bruce Bowen. Meanwhile, Minnesota had a top 10 defense this year, and that was while playing Love next to another terrible rim protector and starting Kevin Martin at the 2.

 

[swingin val]

We saw that happen with Dwight Howard, and there will be others.

Yes, there might be others like Dwight that go to a team located in a state with no state income tax. Massachusetts is not one of those states.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Yes, there might be others like Dwight that go to a team located in a state with no state income tax. Massachusetts is not one of those states.

 
I actually think there will be others like Dwight. And they'll go to teams with superstars that are poised to compete immediately. Not to teams with Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, and a second year Aaron Gordon and Zach LaVine.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Can i just say Loves defense is being underrated at this point too? He certainly is not a rim protector but that doesnt have to be his job and om a winning team it wont be. Hes fundamentally sound cleans up the glass and his athleticism is underrated. He does a good job staying in front of his man and plays very well off a defensive minded big. Hes not carmelo anthony on d. He rebounds hard and has amazing instincts as to where the ball is going to combat his length issues.

 
Yup. When it comes to big men, I think people get overly caught up in blocks, but Love's defense last year rates fairly well from the measures I've looked at.  To compare him to the centerpiece of the alleged Denver offer, Faried, who has a (somewhat undeserved, IMO) reputation as a good defender, Love had a better Defensive Rating, more Def. Win Shares, much better Opponents PER, and better opponent's point's per possession while on court (somewhat redundant with Def Rating, but 82games vs. basketball-reference).  With all due caveats about the imperfections of these measures and the difficulty of capturing defensive impact, I trust them more than I do the "eye test".

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
Everybody acts like these deals take place in complete silence. Kevin Love's agent is also Paul Pierce's agent. He and Danny Ainge have a very, very good relationship. There's a zero percent chance that Ainge makes this deal without knowing exactly what Love and his agent are looking for. If it doesn't mesh with what Ainge thinks is best, he doesn't make the deal. Chad Ford reported yesterday that Love would be very happy to land in Boston. So let me ask you, and all of the other folks who are convinced he'd just opt out: why would he be excited to land in Boston if his goal is to win immediately? What's the appeal? There's no way Boston appeals to Love as a win now destination. The only way it could possibly appeal to him is as an organization that he feels confident can build a contender in the next 2-3 years.

 
Except that Ainge himself has publicly stated he would be willing to bring Love (or any free agent) on board without a long term contract. He sees the value in the additional money FA's make by staying with their team, and he is confident Boston's atmosphere is enticing enough to keep people in town.
 
I gotta say, there's a lot of complaint about Brick in this thread, but I don't see anything in the last 2 pages that are crazy.
 
The Lebron to LA shit on page 3? Nuts.
 
Not liking Love (trading multiple picks, paying him max money, etc) and wanting to wait out for other options? Not so nuts. 
 
I don't agree with it, but it's certainly arguable. Everybody wants Brick to stop talking, then they continue to make pointed questions in his direction. It would be cool if Brick would admit there are valid points to the other side of the argument, but he wouldn't be the first stubborn person on SoSH. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
Everybody acts like these deals take place in complete silence. Kevin Love's agent is also Paul Pierce's agent. He and Danny Ainge have a very, very good relationship. There's a zero percent chance that Ainge makes this deal without knowing exactly what Love and his agent are looking for. If it doesn't mesh with what Ainge thinks is best, he doesn't make the deal. Chad Ford reported yesterday that Love would be very happy to land in Boston. So let me ask you, and all of the other folks who are convinced he'd just opt out: why would he be excited to land in Boston if his goal is to win immediately? What's the appeal? There's no way Boston appeals to Love as a win now destination. The only way it could possibly appeal to him is as an organization that he feels confident can build a contender in the next 2-3 years.

 
As long as that feeling isn't based on Rondo being around at whatever dollar amount it takes, I'm ok with that. If Ainge can convince Love to buy into Ainge and trust him, ok. I just have my doubts is all.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
Except that Ainge himself has publicly stated he would be willing to bring Love (or any free agent) on board without a long term contract. He sees the value in the additional money FA's make by staying with their team, and he is confident Boston's atmosphere is enticing enough to keep people in town.
 
I gotta say, there's a lot of complaint about Brick in this thread, but I don't see anything in the last 2 pages that are crazy.
 
The Lebron to LA shit on page 3? Nuts.
 
Not liking Love (trading multiple picks, paying him max money, etc) and wanting to wait out for other options? Not so nuts. 
 
I don't agree with it, but it's certainly arguable. Everybody wants Brick to stop talking, then they continue to make pointed questions in his direction. It would be cool if Brick would admit there are valid points to the other side of the argument, but he wouldn't be the first stubborn person on SoSH. 

 
But that's not really saying anything. Love's never signing an extension. Nobody in the NBA signs an extension. There's no way to bring in Love on a long-term contract. There's basically a 100% chance that Love opts out, regardless of where he goes. The percentage that's important is how likely it is he re-signs. And I think Ainge will have had plenty of opportunity to gauge that from Love's agent long before he makes a deal.

 

[Stitch01]

That's not all he said, though. It's not just a matter of Love vs. Aldridge, it's a matter of Love vs. Aldridge/this year's 6th/17th/Sullinger/whatever else is traded/less money. There's also a real risk that Love forces a sign and trade or forces his way into Ainge's office holding him hostage to overpay for someone like Rondo to keep him on board.
 

That's true, its just there's next to no chance a top free agent is signing here barring the number 6 pick being a massive home run.  The latter is a real concern, but Im willing to trust Ainge enough that he wont hamstring himself to get Love here.
 

People here are acting like this is a slam dunk, but there is a realistic chance of huge, huge disaster, as well.
 

Not unless Ainge does something stupid like gives away a bunch of unprotected future 1sts or loads up the roster to contend in 2014-2015.  Sullinger, the 6, and the 17 are decent assets but they just aren't valuable enough to cause a huge disaster.  Love not ending up here long term after doing that would be bad, but its unlikely and wouldn't hamstring the team for years to come.
 

If the team decided to go ahead and build with the picks and wait for a safer alternative, I wouldn't be upset at all. I also don't think someone with Love's defensive deficiencies is a guy you want to blow all your resources on, so I'd want to see exactly what they're giving up. If it's much more than the two picks this year plus Olynyk, I'm not getting overly excited
 

Im higher on Love, but I agree the C's don't need to do this deal.  I doubt a safer alternative is going to come along.  They're going to need to take a shot somewhere, the timing with Love isn't completely ideal but the caliber of player and price tag likely put me in the "this is the risk to take" category.
 

I'd personally rather wait 10 years for the opportunity to put together a championship team than lose in the second round every year for half a decade and then have to rebuild again. If you could convince me that Love would stick around the next 7 years, you could probably change my mind. I'm just not confident enough in that happening.
 

I dont think trading for Love will hinder any chances to build a title team ten years from now, but the other issue is that the owners aren't going to run out a crappy team for ten years and hope to hit ping pong balls and wait for the perfect opportunity..  To steal an old Rocco line, they're going to have to play a hand at some point.  Your counterpoints against playing this particular hand have merit, but Im not convinced we're likely to see a better one.
 

Of course, I also recognize the likelihood that Aldridge doesn't sign here as well. My big concern is more with the situation surrounding Love, and his poor defense. You can't win championships in this league without some strong defense, and we're really going to need Stevens to coach up Love/others and get some substantial defensive talent around Love to get that to happen. If they do make the trade, I would strongly prefer Sullinger stay over Olynyk.
 

The positive side of getting Love now is that they have a lot of time and assets to shore up Love's weaknesses.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
But that's not really saying anything. Love's never signing an extension. Nobody in the NBA signs an extension. There's no way to bring in Love on a long-term contract. There's basically a 100% chance that Love opts out, regardless of where he goes. The percentage that's important is how likely it is he re-signs. And I think Ainge will have had plenty of opportunity to gauge that from Love's agent long before he makes a deal.

 
That's not true. 
 
John Wall, Paul George, Demarcus Cousins, Larry Sanders...Kawhi Leonard is discussing an extension right now.
 
Again, people are busting on Brick for just throwing shit against the wall, but it seems to be pretty prevalent in this entire thread.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
That's not true. 
 
John Wall, Paul George, Demarcus Cousins, Larry Sanders...Kawhi Leonard is discussing an extension right now.
 
Again, people are busting on Brick for just throwing shit against the wall, but it seems to be pretty prevalent in this entire thread.

 
All of those guys signed when coming off rookie deals. Apples to oranges. But I guess I should have been more clear: the new CBA makes veteran extensions extremely rare, and costs the signee tons of money. It's been gone over many times in this thread. There's no chance Kevin Love is signing an extension. It's very rare for players in the NBA--save for players coming off their rookie deal--to sign an extension in the NBA. If you think that means I'm "throwing shit against the wall" so be it, but feel free to present an example of an All-Star caliber player who isn't coming off of a rookie deal who has signed an extension under the new CBA.

 

[Devizier]

Paul George is a designated player extension, which has its own set of considerations. The Wolves opted not to go that route with Love, which is why he has the power to demand a trade right now. His signing an extension would mean forgoing his Bird rights, which limits the number of years and annual raises on his contract. In other words, completely not analogous to a series of guys getting extensions after their rookie contracts.

 

[Brickowski]

The Lebron to LA shit on page 3? Nuts.

Yeah, there are lots or crazies out there, including me.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nbc-yahoo-sports/lebron-james-to-the-los-angeles-clippers-makes-sense-141247933.html;_ylt=A0LEVyJdCaNTmDQAAJJXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzOTJ0bWZ2BHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMgRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1ZJUDQ2MV8x

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/06/18/clippers-and-rockets-to-pursue-lebron-james-if-he-becomes-free-agent/

http://fansided.com/2014/06/18/nba-rumors-los-angeles-clippers-try-signing-lebron-james/#!0U2Ww

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10404305/lebron-james-next-decision

 

[CreightonGubanich]

Simmons outlined in his column today how LeBron could end up in LA, without trading Blake Griffin. It's a bit far fetched, sure, but all of the steps are plausible. LA would basically have to shed a bunch of movable and/or expiring salaries, and they'd be left with Paul, Redick, Griffin, and about $15 million/year to offer LeBron. They'd have to fill out the rest of the roster with vet-minimum guys, but so what, at that point. It's not the most likely result, but it's possible, and Simmons claims LA is pursuing it. He's connected enough to the Clippers organization that he's not likely making stuff up. 

 

[Stitch01]

No one is saying LeBron is going to the Clippers for the mid-level, that was the crazy part.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
All of those guys signed when coming off rookie deals. Apples to oranges. But I guess I should have been more clear: the new CBA makes veteran extensions extremely rare, and costs the signee tons of money. It's been gone over many times in this thread. There's no chance Kevin Love is signing an extension. It's very rare for players in the NBA--save for players coming off their rookie deal--to sign an extension in the NBA. If you think that means I'm "throwing shit against the wall" so be it, but feel free to present an example of an All-Star caliber player who isn't coming off of a rookie deal who has signed an extension under the new CBA.

 
Kobe Bryant.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
Kobe Bryant.

 
Yep, the one player who has signed an extension is the guy whose prior salary made it such that he'd still be the league's highest paid player. I think my point is clear.

 

[bowiac]

Yup. When it comes to big men, I think people get overly caught up in blocks, but Love's defense last year rates fairly well from the measures I've looked at.  To compare him to the centerpiece of the alleged Denver offer, Faried, who has a (somewhat undeserved, IMO) reputation as a good defender, Love had a better Defensive Rating, more Def. Win Shares, much better Opponents PER, and better opponent's point's per possession while on court (somewhat redundant with Def Rating, but 82games vs. basketball-reference).  With all due caveats about the imperfections of these measures and the difficulty of capturing defensive impact, I trust them more than I do the "eye test".

Any discussion of Love's defense, or play in general, needs to involve some conversation about "clutch" or something like that.
 
The case against Love mostly consists of his dedication to, his passion for, his love of, and his skill at losing basketball games. A huge number of those games have been close losses, and in fact, the Timberwolves have underperformed their pythagorean record every single year Love has been in the league.
 
The case for Love is that he rates exceptionally well on various box score metrics (although less so on plus/minus type stuff). Even his defense rates fine.
 
If the Timberwolves have mostly just been unlucky in close games, then Love's metrics can mostly be taken at face value, and this is just six years of bad luck. If on the other hand, there's a reason the Timberwolves keep losing these close games, then Kevin Love and his performance (offensive and defensive) in the clutch probably warrants some further examination. I can't honestly say I've watched enough Timberwolves games to say, nor can I really say I'd know what to look for regardless (what makes teams "unclutch", other than playing badly in clutch spots). Other people (like Haralabos Voulgaris on twitter), have suggested it's not a coincidence the Timberwolves lose all these close games, and that Love's defense down the stretch is particularly problematic in close and late situations.
 
Either way however, that's gotta be part of the "conversation" with Love. Otherwise people are talking past each other. There's no real case against Love that doesn't partly blame him for the Timberwolves performance in close games.

 

[moly99]

Why would they be in rebuild mode again in 4 years? What happened to Love who would only be 29, did they mortgage the future for present and have no other young players, if so why did they only get 5-8 for the next 4 years?

Because the logic behind a deal for Love is that we flip our most valuable young players and picks and then build around Love with an extension for Rondo or trade for players like Asik. It's the Rondo/Asik part that would need to be rebuilt in four years.

If they make a Love trade that is similar to the rumored offer, I would be looking for them to add other pieces, whether that includes Rondo or moving him.

In order for this to work, you either need to believe that:

* Rondo is a superstar and worth a full max contract.
* They can sucker some team into giving then a star player for Rondo and filler.
* They can pull off an Al Jefferson for KG level heist for another star.

I don't believe any of those is true. Rondo is a fungible player, the rest of the league knows it (which is why Ainge hasn't been able to trade him), and we can't count on trading a nickel and two pennies for a quarter again.

 

[jon abbey]

No one is saying LeBron is going to the Clippers for the mid-level, that was the crazy part.

 
Except it makes a lot more sense for LeBron than Simmons' plan. If you're LeBron, you wouldn't trade $10M to keep all of those guys (especially DeAndre Jordan)? I would in a second. 

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
Yep, the one player who has signed an extension is the guy whose prior salary made it such that he'd still be the league's highest paid player. I think my point is clear.

 
I'm really not trying to be a dick, but I'm not sure what your point is.
 
You seem adamant that Ainge will be able to feel out Love's long term goals prior to trading for him, but promises are made to be broken. What if Love only wants to play for a winner and the team sucks next year? What happens if he says he'll stay here, but ends up getting a max offer from someone who isn't currently interested in trading for him and can present better marketing (Lakers/Knicks) or tax opportunities (Magic/Houston/etc)? What happens if Rondo walks and Love feels that the team is going to leave him in the same place he's trying to currently escape from?
 
There is very little Love can say to Ainge other than, "Offer me max money and put a good team on the floor, and I'll be interested in staying". All of the other fluff you posted about Ainge getting some kind of hard verbal commitments to keep him (because there is no way he signs an extension) is nothing but a gamble, plain and simple.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
I'm really not trying to be a dick, but I'm not sure what your point is.
 
You seem adamant that Ainge will be able to feel out Love's long term goals prior to trading for him, but promises are made to be broken. What if Love only wants to play for a winner and the team sucks next year? What happens if he says he'll stay here, but ends up getting a max offer from someone who isn't currently interested in trading for him and can present better marketing (Lakers/Knicks) or tax opportunities (Magic/Houston/etc)? What happens if Rondo walks and Love feels that the team is going to leave him in the same place he's trying to currently escape from?
 
There is very little Love can say to Ainge other than, "Offer me max money and put a good team on the floor, and I'll be interested in staying". All of the other fluff you posted about Ainge getting some kind of hard verbal commitments to keep him (because there is no way he signs an extension) is nothing but a gamble, plain and simple.

 
It's not your fault, obviously, but this conversation literally has no end to it. We've (as a group) gotten to this exact point a half dozen times.
 
I believe Kevin Love would stay in Boston long-term. I've laid out my reasons for thinking so. I'm not stating that as fact, I just don't see what the short term appeal is to him. Even with Love, this team isn't a contender for at least 2 years. Because of that, I'm assuming that his stated interest in Boston has to be about the quality of the organization and his belief that Ainge can build a contender around him. If Kevin Love expects the Celtics to win next year, he's probably going to be disappointed. But that's exactly the sort of thing I suspect Ainge will speak to his agent about. All of those hypotheticals are certainly possible; they're also hypotheticals that Ainge can present to Love's agent. That's all I'm saying: I trust that Ainge will feel out Love and get a strong sense of what he wants long/short term, and if Ainge feels the Celtics can't provide those things, I doubt he'll make the move.
 
So sure, if you want to refute that with "it's a gamble" you're more than welcome to, and that's perfectly reasonable. Of course it's a gamble. I just think that if a deal is made at all, the odds that Love stays are higher than most seem to think.

 

[swingin val]

The point was that it is very rare for a top player to 1) sign an extension, and/or 2) not re-up with their current team when their contract ends.

Yes, these things do happen, and there is a risk (small) involved in trading away players/assets in order to get a guy in his last year of his deal.

But I think this is the landscape of the current NBA. Unless you are LA/NY or a FL/TX team, you need to have hope that a guy will resign with you, cause the chances of his signing as a free agent are pretty close to nil

 

[moly99]

The point was that it is very rare for a top player to 1) sign an extension, and/or 2) not re-up with their current team when their contract ends.

It's rare because teams rarely trade for guys as a rental (IE without an extension agreement) or let stars reach the end of their contracts when they are unsure they will re-sign. With a small pool of potential defectors there is inevitably a small number of players who opt to leave. That doesn't mean the percentage of rental players who choose to re-sign with the team who traded for them is very high, though.

If you look at those players who were traded for as rentals, they do in fact frequently leave at the end of the year. Many star players have decided they are not fond of the team who traded for them after all. See Dwight Howard.

 

[Auger34]

Except that Ainge himself has publicly stated he would be willing to bring Love (or any free agent) on board without a long term contract. He sees the value in the additional money FA's make by staying with their team, and he is confident Boston's atmosphere is enticing enough to keep people in town.
 
I gotta say, there's a lot of complaint about Brick in this thread, but I don't see anything in the last 2 pages that are crazy.
 
The Lebron to LA shit on page 3? Nuts.
 
Not liking Love (trading multiple picks, paying him max money, etc) and wanting to wait out for other options? Not so nuts. 
 
I don't agree with it, but it's certainly arguable. Everybody wants Brick to stop talking, then they continue to make pointed questions in his direction. It would be cool if Brick would admit there are valid points to the other side of the argument, but he wouldn't be the first stubborn person on SoSH.

The problem with Brick's posts isn't that he doesn't want to trade for Love, that's certainly a defensible position. It's that he offers no concrete plan or players he would prefer to trade for or really anything. He keeps saying "you never know" or "there are always other players you could trade for".
These arguments just become people repeating themselves over and over.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Rondo was on Numbers Never Lie today on ESPN.  Here's his comment on Carmelo Anthony when they were talking about his future destination.
 

Later when Hill was talking about Chicago or Houston as potential destinations for Carmelo, Rondo interrupted her and said:
 
"Or Boston.  You never know.  You never know what Danny [Ainge] is capable of doing.  I can't tell you too much, but we want to be contenders as well next year.  We don't plan on being down too long.  I think Danny has a lot of wiggle room with what he's done in the past couple years with the draft, so I'm looking forward to what's going to happen.  Hopefully he [Carmelo] doesn't go to Chicago."

 

 

 

[Stitch01]

Many folks seem to think that Love would re-sign with the Celtics, even if the roster was gutted to obtain him, because he'd have faith in Ainge and his track record. If this is true, why wouldn't a potential top free agent feel the same way about the organization and its leadership?

That's not the right comparison. Love accepting a trade here gives you a lot more information about how he feels about signing up long-term in Boston then you have on a free agent..  If Love accepts a trade here, he's buying what Ainge is selling and is a heavy, heavy, heavy favorite to be in Boston long-term.  Its possible Love wants to play for a team that's closer to a title, then he just doesn't come here.  Its possible Love changes his mind or Ainge sells him on coming here with something he can't deliver,  Im willing to put faith in Ainge on the latter point (YMMV).  He's not going to trade for Love unless he's pretty near certain Love is going to be here long-term.  We might not all like what that plan is if it turns out it turns the C's into a GFIN team or they overpay Rondo or trying to lure Carmelo to the C's or something, but I don't think Ainge will promise anything he cant execute on.
 
It is, of course, possible that another free agent, will elect to sign with the Celtics.  Given how often guys of Love's caliber switch teams and given the amount of marquee free agents who have come to Boston ever, that seems unlikely.

 

[moly99]

If it's so frequent maybe you could come up with more than one example? Because there are a half dozen reasons why Howard left LA which don't apply to Boston and Love, starting with Kobe Bryant.

 
I can't make a list of a dozen examples because there are hardly any superstars traded as rentals. The list of star players traded as rentals in the current CBA era:
 
2011: Deron Williams
2012: Chris Paul
2013: Dwight Howard
 
That's it. The argument that trading for Love without an extension is safe because there are few star players who have declined to sign extensions ignores the fact that the sample group is so small.

 

[Brickowski]

The problem with Brick's posts isn't that he doesn't want to trade for Love, that's certainly a defensible position. It's that he offers no concrete plan or players he would prefer to trade for or really anything. He keeps saying "you never know" or "there are always other players you could trade for".
These arguments just become people repeating themselves over and over.

That's a fair criticism. But there is too much uncertainty at the moment to offer anything definitive. LeBron is in play. So, perhaps, is Bosh. Love and Carmello are clearly in play, and who knows what's going to happen with Rondo. The draft may be in flux with Embiid's foot injury and there are some very good UFAs floating around, e.g. Lowry, who played at an all-star level the last half of the year. If and when some of those players land, other dominoes will fall.

Additionally, there have been multiple coaching and front office changes (e.g. Phil Jackson to NY). Several teams have been sold in the past two years, the Clippers are about to be sold, and the Nets are rumored to be on the block.

Some of this stuff will shake out on draft night and during the first few weeks after the end of the quiet period. Until then, IMHO a waste of time to discuss specifics, other than to say that Kevin Love isn't the only big fish out there.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
I can't make a list of a dozen examples because there are hardly any superstars traded as rentals. The list of star players traded as rentals in the current CBA era:
 
2011: Deron Williams
2012: Chris Paul
2013: Dwight Howard
 
That's it. The argument that trading for Love without an extension is safe because there are few star players who have declined to sign extensions ignores the fact that the sample group is so small.

 
In this instance, there is one significant difference between the old CBA and the new CBA: the new CBA eliminates the ability for Bird rights to be available for players signed using a sign and trade. Under the old CBA, Love could sign anywhere in the league and get that 5th year with the maximum allowable raise per season. Under the new CBA he can't. With that in mind, let me ask you: Do you think it's a coincidence that he's looking to get traded somewhere in time to establish Bird rights?

 

[wutang112878]

That's a fair criticism. But there is too much uncertainty at the moment to offer anything definitive. LeBron is in play. So, perhaps, is Bosh. Love and Carmello are clearly in play, and who knows what's going to happen with Rondo. The draft may be in flux with Embiid's foot injury and there are some very good UFAs floating around, e.g. Lowry, who played at an all-star level the last half of the year. If and when some of those players land, other dominoes will fall.

Additionally, there have been multiple coaching and front office changes (e.g. Phil Jackson to NY). Several teams have been sold in the past two years, the Clippers are about to be sold, and the Nets are rumored to be on the block.

Some of this stuff will shake out on draft night and during the first few weeks after the end of the quiet period. Until then, IMHO a waste of time to discuss specifics, other than to say that Kevin Love isn't the only big fish out there.

 
This just goes right back to 'you never know'.  Players change availability, owners, coaches and GMs are always changing, there is constant flux throughout the league.  If you wait until all the dust settles, chances are you arent making any dust and you will be making relatively inconsequential moves.  You have to judge players value and go pounce if you can get them.  Lebron is isnt coming here, dont plan for him.  If you plan to pounce on player XYZ because there is a 5% chance of Lebron going to team ABC, your chances of getting that player are like 1%  If someone becomes available that you want, you go get him.  The chances of getting a real special player at 6 are low, if you can move that to get a special one then you should do it, its simple.  You're making the equation far more complex than it needs to be.

 

[wutang112878]

 
Where have you seen this? 

 
Thats a legit rumor, Wojo had it a few days ago.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Answering for Brick, but even if Lebron James playing in Boston is remote, the fact that he and other big stars may be on the move puts Boston in play.  Danny has oodles of draft picks, fungible players, some valuable non-guaranteed contracts, and a massive trade exception which can all help facilitate complicated multi-team trades.  Ainge is in position to grab good players in salary-dumps and other assets because he has the ingredients to make deals happen for star-chasing teams.

 

[Brickowski]

LeBron isn't irrelevant at all. For example, if he goes to the Clips for more than the MLE they will have to dump salary, which gives teams like Boston with big trade exceptions a chance to get in on the action, maybe for a guy like Reddick. How much do you want to speculate at this point?

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
I wasn't doubting that it was I just hadn't heard it and couldn't find anything on Google. 
 
That being said, I fail to see the relevance here. I don't think anyone o nthe Nets roster becoming available would make Ainge wait to move assets for a big target. 

 
No, but the new owner may not want to spend tens of millions on the luxury tax, increasing the value of the stockpiled draft picks.

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
Which has what to do with the Celtics acquiring a top ten player after next season? Or are you suggesting that we assume they will dump all good players, suck and the Celtics hope they win the lottery in a few years? 

 
I read it just as things being fluid, not them picking up a top-10 free agent after next season. A sale of the Nets may well increase the value of their assets significantly. Those draft picks have top 5 potential, certainly.

 

[wutang112878]

 
That trade exception expires on July 15th. If you think all those things - LeBron opting out, choosing the Clips when every team in the league will call, the Clips clearing space, LeBron scheduling an ESPN special - are happening that quickly, then I would have to question how realistic you are. And even if they do, are we now building around JJ Reddick? Because what we are talking about is getting a top 10 player. So LeBron is only relevant if he is coming to Boston. 

 

 

[moly99]

 
Which one is it? 
 
Because if the argument is void due to sample size regarding Love, then it's void with citing Howard as well. 

 
OK. Let me rephrase it.
 
The chance of a rental free agent deciding to leave in free agency is not infinitesimal and one of the three players recently in that position did in fact opt to leave.
 
I'm at the point now where I hope the Celtics do trade four firsts and Sullinger for Love, give Rondo the full max, trade another first to dump Wallace and send Olynyk and two firsts to Houston for Asik. The fans deserve that team.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
OK. Let me rephrase it.
 
The chance of a rental free agent deciding to leave in free agency is not infinitesimal and one of the three players recently in that position did in fact opt to leave.
 
I'm at the point now where I hope the Celtics do trade four firsts and Sullinger for Love, give Rondo the full max, trade another first to dump Wallace and send Olynyk and two firsts to Houston for Asik. The fans deserve that team.

 
Oh man. I didn't realize that was the only option. I retract my previous posts.

 

[Auger34]

LeBron isn't irrelevant at all. For example, if he goes to the Clips for more than the MLE they will have to dump salary, which gives teams like Boston with big trade exceptions a chance to get in on the action, maybe for a guy like Reddick. How much do you want to speculate at this point?

If LeBron goes to the Clips and they keep Paul and Griffin it doesn't matter what the Celtics do. That team is winning the NBA championship. (Especially since all the speculation is them moving DAJ, Dudley, and other spare parts to get rid of salary. Redick fits perfectly with the LeBron/Paul/Blake trio. Who knows maybe Ballmer is willing to pay the tax as well That is a scary, scary thought and team.)

 

[moly99]

There are other options.

• Someone could trade us a superstar for Rondo, Jeff Green, etc.
• Lebron, Bosh or Melo could sign with us on a cheap deal.
• Kevin Love could sign an extension with us knowing that the team is still rebuilding.

None of those are at all likely.
 
When you trade a lot of assets for a star player with an expiring deal, there is a huge amount of risk and pressure to build a team that will win immediately. If they trade for Love, they will almost certainly try to win now to convince Love to sign an extension, and that will lead to overpaying in trades for guys like Asik. We also have to make room to add both Love and whatever supporting cast we add, so that means trading away assets to dump contracts like Gerald Wallace.

 

[Devizier]

With regards to free agency, keep in mind that the Celtics have almost no cap space. Gutting the roster will take draft picks (that's how they got Gerald Wallace to begin with) and you're doing that with the hope that you get a premier player to sign with your team. In other words, you're guaranteed 0 years of team control. What if the Celtics dump Wallace, Green, et al. and strike out in free agency? That is, FWIW, the most likely scenario with this approach.

Second is the draft picks. I think the 82games and other draft value charts have been discussed ad nauseum. Same with the historical draft record. Suffice to say, there's value in the draft, but it's far more likely to be the kind of value that turns out rotation players and not stars. That's what the Celtics already have, it's not much of a product.

Lastly, please don't ask why Love won't sign an extension without reading one of the many useful FAQs on the internet that explain Bird rights. Coon's is a place to start.

 

[EL Jeffe]

There are other options.

• Someone could trade us a superstar for Rondo, Jeff Green, etc.
• Lebron, Bosh or Melo could sign with us on a cheap deal.
• Kevin Love could sign an extension with us knowing that the team is still rebuilding.

None of those are at all likely.
 
When you trade a lot of assets for a star player with an expiring deal, there is a huge amount of risk and pressure to build a team that will win immediately. If they trade for Love, they will almost certainly try to win now to convince Love to sign an extension, and that will lead to overpaying in trades for guys like Asik. We also have to make room to add both Love and whatever supporting cast we add, so that means trading away assets to dump contracts like Gerald Wallace.

The point (that many others have brought up) is that Love essentially holds the cards here. He can (and has) dictated a list of teams he's willing to play for, and which ones he won't. Boston is clearly in the mix of teams he'd play for. Wherever he goes, he's signing an extension. Love isn't an idiot; it's not hard to look at Boston's situation and see that while there's a path to winning, they aren't instant contendors. Clearly he's comfortable with that, or Boston never would have made his short list of teams.
 
As for overpaying Asik, what besides the trade exception do you think it's going to cost Boston? Houston NEEDS to move Asik. They'd be thrilled to move him without taking back salary. There's a pretty limited market for him, as they found out earlier during the season.

 

[moly99]

If your point is simply to simply say "it can happen", then yes, you've made that point and no one has suggested otherwise. We're all in agreement. If your point is to say "Howard did it, why wouldn't Love", then you're lacking. 

 
My point neither of those two. The fans who think trading the house for Love is a good idea are looking at Love in a vacuum and not considering how he fits into the construction of a full roster.
 
Love is unlikely to sign an extension immediately, and will likely wait for the season to play out first. Deron, Chris Paul and Howard all did this.
 
The threat of Kevin Love not signing an extension does not simply come down to a yes/no answer as to whether he signs an extension or not. The fact that Love could very well walk at the end of the season would compel us to make a series of moves in order to convince Love to resign that are very unlikely to be optimal for the long term success of the team.
 
I think Kevin Love is worth a max contract and would have no objection to adding him in free agency. Making a Deron Williams style trade is significantly more onerous than simply giving Love a max contract, though.

 

[Stitch01]

 
First, if you think Love is coming here and expecting the Celtics to be contenders next year, then I just assume you don't think much of his brainpower. 
 
Second, if you think Ainge is trading for love and then overpaying in assets for try to contend next year, then I also assume you don't think much of his intelligence either. 
 
Third, Asik would cost the TE and nothing else. It disappears in three and a half weeks. This is the exact opposite of overpaying. In fact, it's called 'free'. 
 
Fourth, Walalce would probably be moved after next year - you know, since they aren't going to try to contend next season and waste assets to turn it around so quickly - when he is an expiring and could be dumped without additional compensation. 
 
But please carry on. 

Yup.  If Ainge was an idiot Id have a lot of worries here, but he's not, so I don't.

 

[Stitch01]

 
My point neither of those two. The fans who think trading the house for Love is a good idea are looking at Love in a vacuum and not considering how he fits into the construction of a full roster.
 
Love is unlikely to sign an extension immediately, and will likely wait for the season to play out first. Deron, Chris Paul and Howard all did this.
 
The threat of Kevin Love not signing an extension does not simply come down to a yes/no answer as to whether he signs an extension or not. The fact that Love could very well walk at the end of the season would compel us to make a series of moves in order to convince Love to resign that are very unlikely to be optimal for the long term success of the team.
 
I think Kevin Love is worth a max contract and would have no objection to adding him in free agency. Making a Deron Williams style trade is significantly more onerous than simply giving Love a max contract, though.

 
Why do you think Ainge is not a) laying out to Love exactly what his vision is for the team and b) not trading for Love if he's not in tune with that vision or doesn't think he can make a contending team out of it?  Why do you think the vision of a guy who came here and blew up a playoff team because they were capped as a mid seed in the east will have a strategy of bringing Love here then overpaying for a bunch of assets to contend immediately?
 
If Love isn't comfortable with Danny's vision, why would he agree to come to Boston and cost himself money rather than forcing a trade to a team more ready to contend?

 

[mcpickl]

Again, who knows? Maybe LaMarcus Aldridge tests free agency (jut as Rondo is likely to do). It's all speculative at this point. Besides, just because you have the biggest name with the biggest contract doesn't mean you have a winning team. The Celtics might be a better team by acquiring 2-3 lesser players using the money that they otherwise would have spent on Love. Certainly there's room for major improvement on defense-- especially in the middle-- and Love does nothing to address that.

If the Celtics do sign Love long term, he's going to have another ETO two or three years into the deal, and if the team is mediocre there is a much better than 50% chance that he will exercise it (or hold Ainge hostage by threatening to exercise it). How many players and first round picks are you willing to pay for two years of Love? For three years?

ETOs are only available after year four of a deal.
 
So if you're trading for him with the idea he's signing here next summer, you're getting a minimum of 5 years out of him.