Colts are still easily more probable than not to win the division I think.
They just have to beat Houston at home to clinch all two way divisional tiebreakers and there's a reasonable chance Luck is back by then. They also get the Titans at home in the last week, after Luck should be back. Those games aren't locks, but they'll be favored in both. If they win both they're at six wins, which means they probably only need to find one more win in order to win the division. No one else is very likely getting to 8 wins.
Then, pray to every deity you can find that they win a home game and find their way to New England for a round two playoff game that will be very happy fun times for all.
They just have to beat Houston at home to clinch all two way divisional tiebreakers and there's a reasonable chance Luck is back by then. They also get the Titans at home in the last week, after Luck should be back. Those games aren't locks, but they'll be favored in both. If they win both they're at six wins, which means they probably only need to find one more win in order to win the division. No one else is very likely getting to 8 wins.
Then, pray to every deity you can find that they win a home game and find their way to New England for a round two playoff game that will be very happy fun times for all.