When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

flredsoxfan

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My hope is that Casas works hard at first base. I remember when Boggs first started playing regularly - his glove was only so-so - but he worked at it and became a pretty good third baseman without losing any of his offense. I'm hoping for the same effort from Casas because his offense promises much more power. And, any improvement with the glove might help Devers with his throws.
 

YTF

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My hope is that Casas works hard at first base. I remember when Boggs first started playing regularly - his glove was only so-so - but he worked at it and became a pretty good third baseman without losing any of his offense. I'm hoping for the same effort from Casas because his offense promises much more power. And, any improvement with the glove might help Devers with his throws.
Hard to believe that we're talking 40 years ago, but I also recall that Boggs was noted for how hard he worked to make himself a good third baseman. Casas seems the type who might employ some sort of mind relaxation, see the ball/be the ball, cosmic awareness type of approach to improving his D. That and probably dance lessons.
 

cannonball 1729

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Casas posted really horrible defensive numbers. I’d challenge him to better those before signing something long term. Especially given the profile of your cornerstone player - Devers.
Both of those are roughly a decade old but I think that’s the rough template for a Casas extension. Maybe tack on a little for inflation so something like 6/$50M. I don’t think he’s getting anywhere near the guaranteed dollars/years as the players mentioned earlier in the thread as he doesn’t play a premium position and wasn’t as highly regarded as a prospect.
Yeah - I was going to say something similar to these. So far, he's had one full season where he was roughly a 2 WAR player. The fact that it was at age-23 is super-encouraging - as was the fact that he improved as the season went on - but 2 WAR basically puts him in the middle of the league for first basemen, just slightly ahead of what Justin Turner did last year. Mookie was a 6-win player after his first full season, Xander posted a 6-win season just before they extended him, Lester walked away after multiple 6-win seasons. Triston hasn't posted a season in their stratosphere yet.

Now, I'm hopeful that Casas will take another step - he can learn to play defense, and he was a dramatically better hitter in the second half, so I'm optimistic about his future. But I'm also not opposed to the idea that the Sox might wait for him to play a full season at an elite level before signing him to a massive extension.
 

kazuneko

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Yeah - I was going to say something similar to these. So far, he's had one full season where he was roughly a 2 WAR player. The fact that it was at age-23 is super-encouraging - as was the fact that he improved as the season went on - but 2 WAR basically puts him in the middle of the league for first basemen, just slightly ahead of what Justin Turner did last year. Mookie was a 6-win player after his first full season, Xander posted a 6-win season just before they extended him, Lester walked away after multiple 6-win seasons. Triston hasn't posted a season in their stratosphere yet.

Now, I'm hopeful that Casas will take another step - he can learn to play defense, and he was a dramatically better hitter in the second half, so I'm optimistic about his future. But I'm also not opposed to the idea that the Sox might wait for him to play a full season at an elite level before signing him to a massive extension.
Agreed. His final numbers last season do not warrant a massive extension. If he wants an extension that aligns with who he has been thus far in his career (an .856 OPS 1B with terrible defense) that could work, but if he's expecting to be paid as if he's proven himself to be far better then that than he should show that he perform at that level first.
 

TomRicardo

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Agreed. His final numbers last season do not warrant a massive extension. If he wants an extension that aligns with who he has been thus far in his career (an .856 OPS 1B with terrible defense) that could work, but if he's expecting to be paid as if he's proven himself to be far better then that than he should show that he perform at that level first.
If they aren't going to extend top players like Mookie or give short term out contracts like Xander you need to take smaller more manageable gambles with guys like Casas. Giving Casas a long term contract with some team friendly options for 29-31 years makes a ton of sense now if you aren't going to pay in the future because it is going to get out of the Red Sox price range if he improves this year. Got to think like Rays and Royals now.
 

RS2004foreever

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I read over the weekend that he had already turned down one extension offer. The Braves extended their young players early and the Rays have been this for a while (Archer/Franco) it makes sense if you can do it. I would tell him to play better defense and this is what we will offer because right now he profiles as a DH.
 

richgedman'sghost

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I don't see how it's doom and gloom to say great start, but finish the deal.
The Red Sox did sign both Lester and Bogey to extensions pre arbitration so you're not really comparing the same situations. Plus why the doom and gloom.
 

jbupstate

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I would think the Sox want to see more before making a large offer. Better defense obviously. I don’t think it wrong to worry about Casas as an injury risk either.

Hopefully he stays injury free and the defense improves to adequate.
 

zenax

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The Red Sox did sign both Lester and Bogey to extensions pre arbitration so you're not really comparing the same situations. Plus why the doom and gloom.
Both Lester and Bogaerts had more MLB time than Bello before they got large-ish raises: Lester had 3.075 years service time and Bogaerts had 3.042 years.
Bello has 0.082 years.
 

trs

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Bello has 0.082 years.
Last summer sure did fly by.

Even with 1.082 years, he has 2 fewer years. I can definitely see wanting to do this from a Sox perspective given the attrition rate of pitchers to guarantee a few more years early in a career, but perhaps less urgency with a position player?

Also, if it's true that a similar-ish offer was made to Casas earlier, and it was rejected, that's fine. Maybe next year they agree -- hopefully for even more money because that would mean Casas raked.
 

Cassvt2023

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If i had to guess, Casas is probably looking for something in the neighborhood of 7yr/ 100m. The Sox offer that he reportedly outright rejected was probably much closer to what Bello signed for.
 

loneredseat

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“For right now, I think I have a lot of work to do before I feel like I can say I deserve that contract extension to be the long-term first baseman for the Boston Red Sox,” Casas told Speier. “I think the expectation for the first baseman of the Boston Red Sox is elite production. And I didn’t produce that last year in terms of a great first baseman in the game.
“I don’t feel that I’ve earned a contract extension. I don’t feel that I’ve developed that type of game to merit a long-term extension and contract. So if I don’t get that offer, I’m not upset at anybody in the organization. I’m not upset with myself.”

“I’m super excited for him,” Casas said of Bello. “He’s literally just been the same person throughout the whole time, pretty much the same size, same everything — and to see how he’s developed and how he’s handled everything throughout all levels, I’m really happy for him. And to play with him for hopefully the rest of my career is something that I want and I’m excited for.”

Love the humility. Really hope he puts together another solid year, and makes a step forward on defense.
 

Margo McCready

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“For right now, I think I have a lot of work to do before I feel like I can say I deserve that contract extension to be the long-term first baseman for the Boston Red Sox,” Casas told Speier. “I think the expectation for the first baseman of the Boston Red Sox is elite production. And I didn’t produce that last year in terms of a great first baseman in the game.
“I don’t feel that I’ve earned a contract extension. I don’t feel that I’ve developed that type of game to merit a long-term extension and contract. So if I don’t get that offer, I’m not upset at anybody in the organization. I’m not upset with myself.”

“I’m super excited for him,” Casas said of Bello. “He’s literally just been the same person throughout the whole time, pretty much the same size, same everything — and to see how he’s developed and how he’s handled everything throughout all levels, I’m really happy for him. And to play with him for hopefully the rest of my career is something that I want and I’m excited for.”

Love the humility. Really hope he puts together another solid year, and makes a step forward on defense.
Humility as well as confidence. I think what he’s saying in a very diplomatic way is that he’ll be ready to address a contract extension once he’s established the leverage of elite production on his resume.
 

OCD SS

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Humility as well as confidence. I think what he’s saying in a very diplomatic way is that he’ll be ready to address a contract extension once he’s established the leverage of elite production on his resume.
This is how I read it as well. It sounds like the Sox weren’t close on their offer, and the risk with hitters is a lot less than with pitchers.

The idea that improved defense is something he needs to show to be worth an extension is very silly to me. That’s something you use as an excuse to send a kid down to AAA to game an extra year of control, not something you try and use as leverage to knock a bit off the top of a long term deal.
 

sezwho

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This is how I read it as well. It sounds like the Sox weren’t close on their offer, and the risk with hitters is a lot less than with pitchers.

The idea that improved defense is something he needs to show to be worth an extension is very silly to me. That’s something you use as an excuse to send a kid down to AAA to game an extra year of control, not something you try and use as leverage to knock a bit off the top of a long term deal.
I would agree he’s worth extending today, but establishing himself as a potential +1B defensively would certainly increase his value from where it sits.

Maybe it’s a bias because he’s such a big tank, but I think most see him as somewhere between below average and maybe should be DH. The ‘run prevention team’ might even chip in $ from their pile.
 

Rovin Romine

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I would agree he’s worth extending today, but establishing himself as a potential +1B defensively would certainly increase his value from where it sits.
Yep. His batting eye and approach is good, and he obviously has the physical power to make that approach work in the majors. He may have some kind of Achilles heel that we'd be unaware of. . .but well, I'm unaware of one. He's not a pure-reflexes hitter, and he has what looks to me like a sustainable swing.

The two big concerns are his ability to stick at 1B and injury. They already have two DH-ish types signed for the next few years in Devers and Yoshida. He's also had the two month ankle injury in 2022, and the shoulder problem late last year. He's also a little bit of a flake/free-spirit. Don't get me wrong - I love it. But I'm not sure how the ownership views him in that regard.
 

Otis Foster

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Yep. His batting eye and approach is good, and he obviously has the physical power to make that approach work in the majors. He may have some kind of Achilles heel that we'd be unaware of. . .but well, I'm unaware of one. He's not a pure-reflexes hitter, and he has what looks to me like a sustainable swing.

The two big concerns are his ability to stick at 1B and injury. They already have two DH-ish types signed for the next few years in Devers and Yoshida. He's also had the two month ankle injury in 2022, and the shoulder problem late last year. He's also a little bit of a flake/free-spirit. Don't get me wrong - I love it. But I'm not sure how the ownership views him in that regard.
if that’s an issue, then John Henry is channeling Tom Yawkey. Everything I’ve read suggest that he’s much more relaxed about that sort of thing.
 

LogansDad

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Yep. His batting eye and approach is good, and he obviously has the physical power to make that approach work in the majors. He may have some kind of Achilles heel that we'd be unaware of. . .but well, I'm unaware of one. He's not a pure-reflexes hitter, and he has what looks to me like a sustainable swing.

The two big concerns are his ability to stick at 1B and injury. They already have two DH-ish types signed for the next few years in Devers and Yoshida. He's also had the two month ankle injury in 2022, and the shoulder problem late last year. He's also a little bit of a flake/free-spirit. Don't get me wrong - I love it. But I'm not sure how the ownership views him in that regard.
You see a flake, I see a 24 year old who appears to be completely unflappable. He just oozes confidence and the ability to be himself in all scenarios, which is something not everybody is able to do. Obviously we haven't seen him yet in a real "pressure cooker" environment (fingers crossed for this season), but even while he was working through his struggles last year, he never seemed to get down or panic or anything even close to that. I love this kid's makeup.
 

Salem's Lot

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I doubt that ownership gives zero fucks that he likes to do yoga in the outfield before games. If he hits, and takes the contract that they want to give him, they’ll love him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Humility as well as confidence. I think what he’s saying in a very diplomatic way is that he’ll be ready to address a contract extension once he’s established the leverage of elite production on his resume.
I thought it is also a diplomatic way of saying he prefers to bet on himself and go for a contract that is closer to market value rather than take a discounted rate just to get guaranteed money now. And more power to him if that's the path he wants. He and the Sox have five more years to figure out a common ground for the long term.
 

Rovin Romine

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Shrug. As I said, I love it. Perhaps they like him as much as I do. But Casas wouldn't be the first player I loved who a marketing department had some kind of bullshit theory about.
 

Murby

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Could he flop? Sure.

But, this is the kind of Mickey Mouse gooberishness that the front office is pulling & will later claim he’s too expensive. It’s malpractice if you’re going to have a small payroll.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Without knowing the figures involved, it's difficult to get too worked up or try to assign any blame as to why no deal has been done yet. It's also way too early to worry about it not getting done at all. Casas is a Red Sox through at least 2028 already. No reason to panic or get upset.

Casas can say all he wants that he wants to stay in Boston forever (and I believe him). He is also entirely justified to condition his staying with getting full market value for his talents. If that's the case, it is just not something conducive to finding common ground on a long term contract at this stage of his career. The Sox realize no real benefit to agreeing to sign him to a 7-8-9-10+ year deal now if they don't get what they perceive as a discount for the free agency seasons. Easy to see where there would be an impasse in the short term. Also easy to see where a deal can get done in 2027 that locks Casas in for the rest of his career. The net result is the same either way.
 

CR67dream

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Casas was on NESN earlier in the spring and said that he was approached about an extension but said he's good for now, and wants to prove his value before entertaining that. It may actually have been one of the announcers commenting on a conversation he had with Casas, but the bottom line seemed to be that Casas believes he will be worth more on an extension after he establishes himself a bit more. Seems like sound reasoning on his part, and I love the confidence, regardless of the Mickey Mouse gooberishness of some of the posts around here.
 

loneredseat

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The kid flashed some leather out there today. If he keeps that up he's going to take away the team's biggest "yes, but..."
Saw that! A nice unassisted DP in the first (I think it was the first), and another nice play in the second (or third).
 

Sin Duda

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Another "yes but" is his baserunning. Fangraphs had him at -2.1 WAR in 2023. I'd love for him to become one of those slow but savvy baserunners who knows how/when to take the extra base with minimal risk.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Another "yes but" is his baserunning. Fangraphs had him at -2.1 WAR in 2023. I'd love for him to become one of those slow but savvy baserunners who knows how/when to take the extra base with minimal risk.
I'm sure that the Sox probably lowballed him because of his flaws (defense and baserunning) and what i'm hoping is that he knows those flaws would hurt his overall value so he's just hoping to address those to get a long-term deal closer to his own valuation of his skills as I'm sure he's more confident in his defense and baserunning than half this board was in the middle of last season.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Youk has been pointing out the relentless onslaught of sliders that Casas has been facing. So far, he's 1 for 12 on the year. Time to see if he can adjust accordingly.
 

simplicio

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Last year he hit .300 and slugged .600 vs sliders, I'm optimistic that he'll be able to adjust.
 

sezwho

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Last year he hit .300 and slugged .600 vs sliders, I'm optimistic that he'll be able to adjust.
Thanks, was going to pose this question as you answered it. Someone certainly tried to bury him with sliders last year and…basically nothing was his kryptonite by the end of the season.
 

grimshaw

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He has also been facing really good sliders against really good pitching in a terrible hitting environment and has already had 5 balls called strikes on him this season.
 

koufax37

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Last year he hit .300 and slugged .600 vs sliders, I'm optimistic that he'll be able to adjust.
There is more than SSS to go on here, if you saw his at bats.

1) Seattle clearly had a plan and was relentless with it.
2) He was unable to make any adjustment and got beat on sliders in the zone.
3) On a positive, no Javy Baez here, his discipline on the sliders is excellent.

But the core is they attacked him that way daring him to prove any level of competency to the contrary, and at least for four days, there was no adjustment, no competent swings with bad luck. Maybe it was just respect of his ability to hit a fastball and a bad weekend, but it did not look that way. He seemed mechanically off on every swing on a slider in the zone and looked really helpless.

I think the statistical outcome of four games is almost completely meaningless, and I'm not at all worried about Story, etc. But the substance behind those outcomes for Casas are concerning and to keep an eye on.