When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

Brohamer of the Gods

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As of yesterday he basically has a full season sample. If we figure in his early season slump and don’t discount it, as he’s likely to have on and off small slumps, he looks like he should be a consistent 30HR guy with a .260BA and a .370 OBP, .870 OPS.
I was just looking at players who put up similar career numbers, and the list includes people like Norm Cash, Danny Tartabull, Travis Hafner, Mark Teixeira, and if you squint and don't mind including several very young partial seasons, and a three-year decline Harmon Killebrew.
 

zenax

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As of yesterday he basically has a full season sample. If we figure in his early season slump and don’t discount it, as he’s likely to have on and off small slumps, he looks like he should be a consistent 30HR guy with a .260BA and a .370 OBP, .870 OPS.
I don't think that should be considered an "early season slump" as it took him 87 career before he got his lifetime AVG up to .200 to stay and in the 64 games since, he has batted .329/.414/.620/1.034. It's more of an adaptation to the majors, especially as he only played two games in the minors in the year he was drafted (2018) and didn't play at all in 2020.
 

Fishy1

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Funny cause Casas has way better plate discipline than Olson did at the same age.

Almost like you could say that young Triston Casas is like old Matt Olson.
 

simplicio

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The 40 RBI stat display on Ruiz is pretty funny. The other hitters on that list have 50% more.
 

derekson

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Whoever compared Casas to Jim Thome in the game thread the other day had it right. He has insanely easy opposite field power that is very rare to see.
 

Sin Duda

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I was looking at WAR levels for first basemen. Casas' numbers align pretty favorably to Freedie Freeman with 3 notable exceptions. He's not hitting for as high an average, which we have already seen great improvement on since May. But the others are speed related - doubles and steals. Then I noticed Freeman's height and weight are 6'5", 220 lbs. Tristan's are 6'5", 245 lbs (and I think I heard him say he's actually at 265).

I said it once way upthread, but I hope he loses 20-30 pounds to improve his hitting, defense, and base running. I'll bet the team suggests it for this off-season too.
 

grimshaw

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He is just insanely difficult to pitch to. I can't remember the last Boston player to spit on bendy stuff so well and know the fastball zone. Xander was exceptional at it too, but I think Casas is even better. I can only see him improving as he learns starters more.

Imagine how much damage he'd do to our starters. Ok, let's not.
 

The Filthy One

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Whoever compared Casas to Jim Thome in the game thread the other day had it right. He has insanely easy opposite field power that is very rare to see.
He strikes me as kind of a lefty Mark McGwire. Looking at McGwire's second year (after his insane 1987 rookie year when the ball was juiced (and, probably, so was McGwire)), his line was:

McGwire 88 (age 24): .260/.352/.478 with 32 HR, 22 2B 134 OPS+, 3.4 oWar, -1.4 dWar
Casas 23 (age 23): .268/.370/.501 with 23 HR, 20 2B 133 OPS+, 2.5 oWar, -0.9 dWar
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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I was looking at WAR levels for first basemen. Casas' numbers align pretty favorably to Freedie Freeman with 3 notable exceptions. He's not hitting for as high an average, which we have already seen great improvement on since May. But the others are speed related - doubles and steals. Then I noticed Freeman's height and weight are 6'5", 220 lbs. Tristan's are 6'5", 245 lbs (and I think I heard him say he's actually at 265).

I said it once way upthread, but I hope he loses 20-30 pounds to improve his hitting, defense, and base running. I'll bet the team suggests it for this off-season too.
Re: doubles and steals:
  • Doubles is unfair: Freeman is at 51, which leads the MLB by 13 doubles. He's got a shot to join the exclusive 60-double-season club as it's 7th member. He's also done that in 150 more AB's that Triston. So yes, it would be nice to see Triston move up from his paltry 20 doubles, but even just a few more would put him in line with normal players. Plus, Freeman doesn't have to worry about the Monster taking away a lot of doubles - he loves to go to OppoAlley™ and has the park to do it.
  • Steals is fair, but: anecdotally/eye-test, Roberts has been more willing to send non-traditional runners. What's more, Freeman has a history of running - but his greater success hasn't come until his later 20's/early 30s. His first real year in the league he stole 4 times and was caught 4 times. He had -1 SBN in 2014. If anything, the argument would seem to be: pay attention, learn to pick your spots, and over the years you too could surprise everyone by swiping 17 vs. only 1 caught. I'd love for Triston to get there, but I wouldn't expect anyone to make Freeman's transformation in a year or two - it takes time for bigger dudes.
 

simplicio

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I am delighted that he is hitting as well as he is now. I also have no qualms with saying he and the team may have been better off with him spending the first six weeks or so of the season on AAA, had there been a better option to play first.

I will also add that he still has a tremendous split between bases empty and men on. His power is still there for the most part, but his hits and walks are both down significantly when there are runners on. Those numbers are way better than they were two months ago, so no question trending upwards.

View attachment 68136
Revisiting his early season problems with men on base, it seems like he largely overcame them. Final numbers:
Bases empty: .901 OPS, 144 WRC+
Men on: .806/112
RISP: .874/129

One place he could still improve is hi-lev situations, currently .715/92 there, though it's only a 54 PA sample.
 

shaggydog2000

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It's all just sample size noise. We went over this in the Devers thread. His numbers bounced around all over the place season to season, but long term were fine.
 

Fishy1

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It's all just sample size noise. We went over this in the Devers thread. His numbers bounced around all over the place season to season, but long term were fine.
It's funny, ten-fifteen years on, to still be having this discussion about 'clutch stats'. I think we all have to resign ourselves to speculations about small sample noise until the end of time.

In terms of his end of year placement... 12th among qualifiers in BB%, 26th among qualify in SLG%, 17th in OBP, 19th in WRC+. Pretty good for a rookie.
 

JM3

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Triston Casas is an AL ROY finalist along with Gunnar Henderson & Tanner Bibee.

Here's an interview with Casas on the subject:

View: https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1721674226422153250

"Gunnar is a great player and I got a chance to face Tanner earlier in the year... to be in the conversation with those two means a lot."

After a stellar rookie season, Triston Casas was just named an AL Rookie of the Year finalist!
 

richgedman'sghost

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I adore this kid.
I adore him too. It's just too bad the Red Sox are getting screwed by Major League Baseball again. In the origina version of the latest labor agreement, there was a clause where a team would get a bonus if they had a rookie finish in the top three of the Rookie of Year voting. However in the final agreement, they changed it so only the winner's team gets the benefit. Instead the other 2 teams would have gotten a benefit if a World Draft was adopted. However, a World Draft was never adopted so the Red Sox are out of luck. I think they should have gone back to the original version of the agreement. Oh well, nothing they can do about it now.
 

6-5 Sadler

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Honestly if they can get him and Bello (and possibly Crawford) extended I will consider this offseason a success. Maybe less so if we hand Teoscar a 4-year deal.
 

phineas gage

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Hmm, not sure if this is a good thing. I like that he has confidence in himself, but if things don't go well he's opened himself up to a lot of criticism.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Hmm, not sure if this is a good thing. I like that he has confidence in himself, but if things don't go well he's opened himself up to a lot of criticism.
It’s awesome. I can’t imagine seeing that as a negative.

To be the man you gotta know you’re the man.
 

phineas gage

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Know, yes. Quiet confidence. Proclaiming it to the world in the absence of much evidence, maybe not.

But I may be in the distinct minority. Either way, I love the guy and I'm hoping he has a breakout season.
 

jezza1918

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Know, yes. Quiet confidence. Proclaiming it to the world in the absence of much evidence, maybe not.

But I may be in the distinct minority. Either way, I love the guy and I'm hoping he has a breakout season.
I think all he did was proclaim to the world that he had a terrific campaign at 23 years old (using factual statements) and he's expecting more of himself at 24. I dont view that tweet as arrogant/grandiose/over the top whatsoever fwiw.
 

Jimbodandy

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Know, yes. Quiet confidence. Proclaiming it to the world in the absence of much evidence, maybe not.

But I may be in the distinct minority. Either way, I love the guy and I'm hoping he has a breakout season.
I'm not so sure that "in the absence of much evidence" is accurate. Of course many guys had great rookie campaigns only to get figured out, but what this guy did after his initial adjustment to the majors was remarkable and a pretty reasonable data set. Guy should be proud and confident.
 

CR67dream

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I think all he did was proclaim to the world that he had a terrific campaign at 23 years old (using factual statements) and he's expecting more of himself at 24. I dont view that tweet as arrogant/grandiose/over the top whatsoever fwiw.
Yeah, I agree. He wrote exactly what he accomplished in '23. '24 was left a completely blank slate, not even a "you ain't seen nothing yet". A very well placed ellipsis.... ;)

I freaking love it. Love this kid. I think it's safe to say that I'm officially jonesing for baseball now. :)
 

LogansDad

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Yeah, I agree. He wrote exactly what he accomplished in '23. '24 was left a completely blank slate, not even a "you ain't seen nothing yet". A very well placed ellipsis.... ;)

I freaking love it. Love this kid. I think it's safe to say that I'm officially jonesing for baseball now. :)
Outside of your last sentence (I have been jonesing since October), I agree completely. Sports need more good, fun personality, and this kid, from what I have seen so far, has it in spades. He's like a more flamboyant Vinnie Pasquantino (who is also a great personality, and a similarly fun player). I am really excited for his 2024 season.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He posted facts... not anything that was shit-talking, which as much as we all love Pedroia... he was way more of a blustery shit-talker. Fine. There's no issue here.
 

chrisfont9

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Know, yes. Quiet confidence. Proclaiming it to the world in the absence of much evidence, maybe not.

But I may be in the distinct minority. Either way, I love the guy and I'm hoping he has a breakout season.
I get that you are channeling 120 years of baseball culture but I'm not sure players are so beholden to that anymore. Of course the joyless SHaughnessy readers very much are, but they can generally go fuck themselves. I suspect he will make that message clear at some point if he hasn't already.
 

CR67dream

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Yes.

Also, everyone please remember we have no exciting or entertaining players.
Eh, sometimes it's hard to remember in the dead of winter after an ending like last year. I'm gonna cut everybody some slack regardless of their outlook, and I don't think anyone ever actually said those exact words, though I know you will show me if they did :) ;) Frustration is a hell of a drug.

I think we all want to see a fun successful season, and watch the kids grow. It's very nice for Casas to remind everyone that there's promise ahead, along with all the the unknown.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I get that you are channeling 120 years of baseball culture but I'm not sure players are so beholden to that anymore. Of course the joyless SHaughnessy readers very much are, but they can generally go fuck themselves. I suspect he will make that message clear at some point if he hasn't already.
More Pedroia, less JD Drew!!!!

I mean, I'd happily take either/both as players but Drew could really put you to sleep. That "be quiet and do your job professionally" stuff is so boring!
 

I Miss Maalox

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Know, yes. Quiet confidence. Proclaiming it to the world in the absence of much evidence, maybe not.

But I may be in the distinct minority. Either way, I love the guy and I'm hoping he has a breakout season.
Not sure how much evidence you need.
He just had his breakout season.
And he appears to have the approach and mindset to keep getting better.
 

Margo McCready

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What’s better than a Casas post-game recap interview after a win at Fenway? The dude was made for TV.

I don’t worry about him backing up this social media post. His elite plate discipline alone keeps his floor pretty damn high as an MLB hitter.
 

Sin Duda

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Hmm, not sure if this is a good thing. I like that he has confidence in himself, but if things don't go well he's opened himself up to a lot of criticism.
Yes, you seem to be a minority of "1", although I get what you're saying - you probably wouldn't say that yourself and you don't want it to blow back on the kid. I know I'd never say that. But I'm never going to be one of the best in world at my profession either, and maybe that level of self-confidence bordering on bravado is what Tristan needs to continue to fuel himself to get better. I can't wait to see how he performs in 2024.