When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

bosox188

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It's the first series of the season, there's always some guys who start hot and some who start a bit cold. Hitters looking off on swings a few games in won't tell you anything either. I'm also fairly sure that the Mariners have a good reputation for developing sliders for their pitchers, I'm not all that surprised to see a lot of them thrown at good hitters.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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There is more than SSS to go on here, if you saw his at bats.

1) Seattle clearly had a plan and was relentless with it.
2) He was unable to make any adjustment and got beat on sliders in the zone.
3) On a positive, no Javy Baez here, his discipline on the sliders is excellent.

But the core is they attacked him that way daring him to prove any level of competency to the contrary, and at least for four days, there was no adjustment, no competent swings with bad luck. Maybe it was just respect of his ability to hit a fastball and a bad weekend, but it did not look that way. He seemed mechanically off on every swing on a slider in the zone and looked really helpless.

I think the statistical outcome of four games is almost completely meaningless, and I'm not at all worried about Story, etc. But the substance behind those outcomes for Casas are concerning and to keep an eye on.
Seattle's plan of attack was pretty clear as you note and the outcome speaks for itself. Casas is likely going to see a steady diet of sliders going forward too. He will have to adjust . I'm betting he will but it may take longer than he or we like.
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Salem's Lot

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Seattle had a great game plan for Casas. They also have a great pitching staff. I doubt there are many teams that could throw all sliders to him over the course of a four game series and not hang a few of them.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Small ray of optimism regarding the sliders: on Casas' ground out to 2B in the fifth, it was a slider that he absolutely hit on the screws (105.1 mph exit velocity). The result was a one-hopper right at the second baseman but the fact that he hit it so well suggests he's not getting totally fooled by every slider. Adjustments shouldn't need to be drastic to solve the problem.
 

Fishy1

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And as someone pointed out upthread, he absolutely crushed sliders last year to the tune of a . 600 SLG. He'll be fine, it's very early.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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My only real concern with Casas is that he’s going to put too much pressure on himself this season as he’s now a fully enthroned cornerstone
 

CoffeeNerdness

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My initial impression of the approach by Seattle wasn't that it was simply sliders but rather a mixture of sliders, sweeper and cutters that kept him off balance. My guess is that this was a novel approach by Seattle and that past success against sliders may not mean we'll see as good results if other teams adopt the slider / sweeper / cutter heavy approach. It has to be insanely difficult as a hitter to read slider v. cutter v. sweeper. This will interesting to track for sure.

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shaggydog2000

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My initial impression of the approach by Seattle wasn't that it was simply sliders but rather a mixture of sliders, sweeper and cutters that kept him off balance. My guess is that this was a novel approach by Seattle and that past success against sliders may not mean we'll see as good results if other teams adopt the slider / sweeper / cutter heavy approach. It has to be insanely difficult as a hitter to read slider v. cutter v. sweeper. This will interesting to track for sure.

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Like @Salem's Lot has noted, it's easy to see how a good pitcher can beat you, but expecting every pitcher on every team be able to mix multiple high quality breaking pitches and keep them all in the zone enough to not walk a batter with as good an eye as Casas is asking a lot. Others will mess up, hang balls, walk him, etc.
 

absintheofmalaise

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Joe Boyle, the A's pitcher tonight, was only in three games last year, so not much data. He threw the 4 seam 58% of the time. Hopefully that trend will continue and Casas will see fewer breaking balls tonight. Here's the mix from Baseball Savant.
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bosox188

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Joe Boyle, the A's pitcher tonight, was only in three games last year, so not much data. He threw the 4 seam 58% of the time. Hopefully that trend will continue and Casas will see fewer breaking balls tonight. Here's the mix from Baseball Savant.
View attachment 80325
Boyle is known for having big stuff but absolutely horrendous control. On any other team he probably wouldn't have gotten a shot at starting. If Casas walks three times tonight and is never even tempted to swing the bat, I wouldn't be surprised.
 

Fishy1

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Boyle is known for having big stuff but absolutely horrendous control. On any other team he probably wouldn't have gotten a shot at starting. If Casas walks three times tonight and is never even tempted to swing the bat, I wouldn't be surprised.
93 walks in 117 innings last year in the minors. Thats taking free passes to the level of performance art.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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please get this kid a 10 year $150M contract ASAP. As sure as the sun will rise, I’m as confident in inking in him for an .850-.950 OPS with 30 Hrs every one of those seasons
 

Benj4ever

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please get this kid a 10 year $150M contract ASAP. As sure as the sun will rise, I’m as confident in inking in him for an .850-.950 OPS with 30 Hrs every one of those seasons
I don't think that $150M is going to get it done. In any case, I hope to see him in Boston for the rest of his career.
 

Hendu1986

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I wonder if the Braves corner infielders would be valid comparisons for signing Casas. Looks like both Riley and Olson got about 20-21 million a year at ten years for Riley and eight years for Olson. I wouldn't have a problem signing Casas to a 10 year, 215 million dollar contract at this point.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don't think that $150M is going to get it done. In any case, I hope to see him in Boston for the rest of his career.
Without signing an extension, Casas is probably looking at $30-40M over the next four years (call it $900K, $5M, $10M, $15M on the low end). Which means a 10/150 offer would pay him $22-24M per year for the remaining years. It also means he's not a free agent until at least his age 34 season. None of that seems like something a player will agree to at this stage. I'm thinking he's either looking for a 7-8 year deal so he hits free agency at 31 or 32, or he needs something in the range of a 12-13+ year "career" commitment.

I'm thinking 8/110-120 might be more in line with something he'd sign today.
 

simplicio

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I wonder if the Braves corner infielders would be valid comparisons for signing Casas. Looks like both Riley and Olson got about 20-21 million a year at ten years for Riley and eight years for Olson. I wouldn't have a problem signing Casas to a 10 year, 215 million dollar contract at this point.
It should be cheaper; both those guys got extended when already arbitration eligible and both had demonstrated a capability of performing at a 5+ WAR level.
 

Rovin Romine

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This kid is amazing. He's just in a completely different headspace, and I love to visit it now and again through his quotes.
Visualization training has long been a thing. . .and there's pretty conclusive evidence that it has a positive effect on both skill growth and preventing skill degradation when you can't physically do the thing.

It's basically what he was doing with the pitching machine earlier this year - keeping his brain in the game.

I think the significance is here is that he's all in. I'm sure a lot of guys are. But it's good to know he is in particular and isn't just sort of goofing around, waiting for the all-clear to pick up a bat and see how it goes.
 

joe dokes

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He is awesome. He's genuine; he knows that he attracts attention and he's up to the task.

A generation ago (certainly two) a "cerebral" guy like this would be run from the league (or never get a chance) by the tobacco-stained guardians of "how things are done."
 

shaggydog2000

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Visualization training has long been a thing. . .and there's pretty conclusive evidence that it has a positive effect on both skill growth and preventing skill degradation when you can't physically do the thing.

It's basically what he was doing with the pitching machine earlier this year - keeping his brain in the game.

I think the significance is here is that he's all in. I'm sure a lot of guys are. But it's good to know he is in particular and isn't just sort of goofing around, waiting for the all-clear to pick up a bat and see how it goes.
Visualization training has been a thing for decades, I did as part of training back in college almost 30 years ago and it was old by then. But this is more about the phrasing and how he lead them by breadcrumb. He didn't just say, "I was taking mental reps to stay sharp".
 

dhappy42

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He is awesome. He's genuine; he knows that he attracts attention and he's up to the task.

A generation ago (certainly two) a "cerebral" guy like this would be run from the league (or never get a chance) by the tobacco-stained guardians of "how things are done."
Can you imagine an in-game interview with Bill Lee?
 

Rovin Romine

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Visualization training has been a thing for decades, I did as part of training back in college almost 30 years ago and it was old by then. But this is more about the phrasing and how he lead them by breadcrumb. He didn't just say, "I was taking mental reps to stay sharp".
Ah. I had read that as you thinking this was a quirky thing to do. But yes, I agree it's kind of hysterical how he led McCaffrey.

What did you use it for, if you don't mind my asking?
 

shaggydog2000

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Ah. I had read that as you thinking this was a quirky thing to do. But yes, I agree it's kind of hysterical how he led McCaffrey.

What did you use it for, if you don't mind my asking?
I was a thrower on the track team in college (hammer and 35 lb weight), so we threw things, lifted weights, then watched video of us throwing the things, did dry runs of our footwork without the implements, and did visualization exercises running through our form in our head (and targeting a personal record, because as long as you're there you might as well). With a sport where there are a lot of discrete parts to the movement it's hard to think about things like where your weight is at each chunk while you're going full speed. So breaking it down on video in slow motion helps you see what you are physically doing, the dry runs let you focus on each step, and the visualization is important for putting it together in your mind before you go and try to replicate at full speed. For some sports like weight lifting there is a really big mental barrier to break in order to set a personal record, someone can be stuck at a given maximum lift for years, so for them the visualization can be much more about erasing that barrier before they try a heavier weight. A baseball swing is probably a lot closer to throwing a hammer or discus than the weight lifting end of the spectrum.
 

shepard50

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I love this. The visualisation thing is immensely powerful. From an experiment in the 1950s by Dr. Biasiatto at the university of Chicago:


Free Throw Experiment



In the 1950’s at the University of Chicago, Dr. Biasiotto conducted a study on how effective visualization could be in enhancing performance- specifically for basketball players.



The players were split into 3 groups.



Over the course of a month, the first group was told to spend an hour a day practicing free throws. The second group was told to just visualize themselves making free throws every day. The third group was told to do nothing.



The third group saw no improvements. However, the second group shot 23% better, and the first group shot 24% better.



The second group improved their free throw shooting percentage without touching a basketball.

They were only 1% below those who worked on it every day for an hour.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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He is awesome. He's genuine; he knows that he attracts attention and he's up to the task.

A generation ago (certainly two) a "cerebral" guy like this would be run from the league (or never get a chance) by the tobacco-stained guardians of "how things are done."
A generation ago? More like two years ago. When he was a rookie, veteran red asses gave him shit (“We don’t do things like that around here” which is pretty rich coming from a team that was currently in last place) about how he’d walk the grass with no shoes on as well as other things that he did to get himself prepared for games.

He’s an individual that’s true to himself and doesn’t care what others think about him. I love players like that, especially when they seem like genuinely good people.
 

ookami7m

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steeplechase3k

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I wish he were healthy because I think the Duran and Casas show will be a blast. If they filmed it like a buddy cop thing it would outview this Netflix doc.
That's pretty much where I am too. I love the mentality, attitude, and energy both these guys bring.

The past few years I've been trying to figure out which player tshirts I should get. I have Ortiz and Pedroia, but want something newer, and I've pretty much decided I'm going to get both Duran and Casas.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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I was a thrower on the track team in college (hammer and 35 lb weight), so we threw things, lifted weights, then watched video of us throwing the things, did dry runs of our footwork without the implements, and did visualization exercises running through our form in our head (and targeting a personal record, because as long as you're there you might as well). With a sport where there are a lot of discrete parts to the movement it's hard to think about things like where your weight is at each chunk while you're going full speed. So breaking it down on video in slow motion helps you see what you are physically doing, the dry runs let you focus on each step, and the visualization is important for putting it together in your mind before you go and try to replicate at full speed. For some sports like weight lifting there is a really big mental barrier to break in order to set a personal record, someone can be stuck at a given maximum lift for years, so for them the visualization can be much more about erasing that barrier before they try a heavier weight. A baseball swing is probably a lot closer to throwing a hammer or discus than the weight lifting end of the spectrum.
I was a high jumper- and I would do the same thing before every meet, and then before every jump. If I couldn't see myself making it in my head, I knew there was no way I could make it when the spikes hit the rubber. It also took the "paralysis by analysis" part out-- I did all the thinking before hand, so when it was OGG on deck, all I needed to do was recreate the thought.
 

soxhop411

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I would also pay an obscene amount of money for an unfiltered casas & liam hendriks sitcom.

Though said sitcom might violate every FCC rule by the end of the first episode
 

Sox Puppet

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The irony of that video is, as soon as Casas is healthy (and no longer doing postgame interviews), Dom Smith is probably DFA. But it's nice to see him smiling here.
 

nvalvo

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The irony of that video is, as soon as Casas is healthy (and no longer doing postgame interviews), Dom Smith is probably DFA. But it's nice to see him smiling here.
Yeah, it's nice to see that they can be friendly in any case. But Smith seems like a pro's pro; he knows the drill.

And this has been a great opportunity for him to audition for his next gig on a team that is suddenly kind of high profile. While he definitely started slow, he's been scalding hot the last week or so. If he can keep hitting well for a few more weeks, he'll get some attention. He's only 29.