When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

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Man, I love this kid.

I know this is overused, but I saw him in person a couple times this year, and the ball just sounds different off of his bat. Actually, one of the games was at the White Sox, and he and Luis Robert both sounded the same, different from the rest.

He's going to be very good, for a long time.
 

phineas gage

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you seem to be a minority of "1",
Very much so. I do appreciate the feedback and also the fact that I wasn't flamed off the board.

Casas is one of my favorite players to watch and to root for. If he improves defensively, sky's the limit.
 

soxhop411

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Casas turned 24 on Monday and celebrated his Birthday with a very modest dinner
Red Sox' Triston Casas turned 24 on Monday and enjoyed a big b-day dinner courtesy of his dad. “My dad went to my favorite butchery shop in Miami and he got me an Australian Wagyu Tomahawk, then a separate Japanese A5 Wagyu Ribeye. So I had both of those for the birthday dinner"
View: https://twitter.com/SmittyOnMLB/status/1747763241583771857


View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1747731688187208131


Casas* took it upon himself to come to rookie dev. He wanted to get to know the guys and be around to offer advice. At only 24 years old (as of earlier this week), he’s emerging as quite a leader.
 

Mantush

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Man, I love this kid.

I know this is overused, but I saw him in person a couple times this year, and the ball just sounds different off of his bat. Actually, one of the games was at the White Sox, and he and Luis Robert both sounded the same, different from the rest.

He's going to be very good, for a long time.
I have to echo this. Honestly all of his ABs were must watch TV for me. He's an enjoyable player to root for both on and off the field. His mic'd up moments on ESPN this year were great too.
 

soxhop411

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More on Casas
BOSTON — Triston Casas turned 24 on Monday. He enjoyed a delicious birthday dinner courtesy of his dad before flying to Boston for the Red Sox’s Rookie Development Program.

“My dad went to my favorite butchery shop in Miami and he got me an Australian Wagyu Tomahawk, then a separate Japanese A5 Wagyu Ribeye,” Casas said. “So I had both of those for the birthday dinner.”

Casas of course is no longer a rookie. He just completed his first full season and finished third for American League Rookie of the Year. So why is he here at this program?



“I did not get invited to come,” Casas told MassLive at Fenway Park on Wednesday. “I wanted to come and I wanted be here. I would have come on the first day if it wasn’t for my birthday dinner that I had planned on Monday. I requested to come out here. It’s a lot of new faces: coaching staff, front office and especially players.”

The rookie program participants includes Boston’s top three prospects — shortstop Marcelo Mayer, center fielder Roman Anthony and catcher Kyle Teel — as well as its top two pitching prospects, Wikelman Gonzalezand Luis Perales. No. 8 prospect Nick Yorke as well as trade additions Vaughn Grissom, Isaiah Campbell, Richard Fitts and Justin Slaten also are participating.

“This is a young group of talent that I’ve heard a lot about and I hadn’t gotten the chance to meet except for today when I did,” Casas said. “I’m looking forward to developing relationships with all of them in the next couple of years.”

Casas, who’s sporting a new look with short hair and a beard, also will be heading to Winter Weekend on Friday and Saturday at MGM Springfield
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/red-sox-slugger-requested-to-come-to-rookie-camp-after-big-birthday-dinner.html
 

Skiponzo

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Man, he is such a fun player to watch and person to follow. Someone said it earlier and they were spot on...we don't have many fun players and this guy is def fun. I'm not a big fan of long term extensions but I'd be all for a 10+ year deal to keep Triston a Red Sox. He's certainly setting up to be a really good player for a very long time. Exciting!
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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I am not a super big guy but I do eat more than most people. Had large loaded pizza for dinner last night, just as point reference, and even I’m having a hard time imagining eating all that beef…and wagyu is crazy rich and marbled.

Impressive.
Following that up by hopping on a plane may be the most impressive part.
 

Daniel_Son

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No worries.

The more I've read about Casas this offseason, the more excited I'm getting. Everyone is saying that he's stepping up to be a leader in the clubhouse and making time to connect with the younger guys. Sort of reminds me of the talk around Mookie when he first came up.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Yea, ultimately I think they’ve learned their lesson that when you have conviction with a player waiting is never the right move.

However, he is pre-arb2. You don’t have to get this done today.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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So what would an extension look like? The two most recent pre-arb deals were Corbin Carrol ay 8/111 and Wander Franco at 11/182 (oops). Julio got 12/209. These guys obviously give a lot more defensive value than Casas, but gives us some benchmarks.

8/100?
10/125?
 

JCizzle

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I offered this same answer to a post in the "throttle" thread.
They've begun extension talks. This is what we wanted. yes?
Starting the discussion is great, but I want it done. They also talked with Mookie and never made a compelling enough offer, which is what I want them to avoid in this situation. Who knows how it all plays out, but I think locking him up as he heads into what we all hope will be a breakout year would be a huge win for the FO and fanbase.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I offered this same answer to a post in the "throttle" thread.
They've begun extension talks. This is what we wanted. yes?
Yes, and that they have talked is really the only noteworthy thing to take away here. Because he's got five years of cost-control left, there is little incentive to overwhelm him with the first offer, so no surprise that he's not "enticed." And while it's encouraging that he says he wants to be in Boston "forever" that's a pretty stock answer for just about every player in his position. The subtext of "forever" is always "at the right price."
 

nattysez

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So what would an extension look like? The two most recent pre-arb deals were Corbin Carrol ay 8/111 and Wander Franco at 11/182 (oops). Julio got 12/209. These guys obviously give a lot more defensive value than Casas, but gives us some benchmarks.

8/100?
10/125?
Bobby Witt just got 11/$288 from the Royals with a ton of opt-outs the year before he was arb-eligible, so I imagine that's the deal Casas will point to as a benchmark.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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So what would an extension look like? The two most recent pre-arb deals were Corbin Carrol ay 8/111 and Wander Franco at 11/182 (oops). Julio got 12/209. These guys obviously give a lot more defensive value than Casas, but gives us some benchmarks.

8/100?
10/125?
The money he's likely to get over the next five years of team control is probably in the range of $30-40M (call it something like $750K, $800K, $5M, $10M, $18M). So 8/100 or 10/125 would put the free agency seasons value at somewhere around $20-24M per. Got to think the price will be higher than that. Probably a decent starting point though.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Bobby Witt just got 11/$288 from the Royals with a ton of opt-outs the year before he was arb-eligible, so I imagine that's the deal Casas will point to as a benchmark.
Witt plays a premium defensive position. He doesn't play it particularly well, but he can slide down the defensive spectrum and still retain value. Casas can't. That alone probably makes his deal the ceiling that Casas could expect. If Casas requires something close to that, I don't see the Sox doing an early extension with him.
 

Bigpupp

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I offered this same answer to a post in the "throttle" thread.
They've begun extension talks. This is what we wanted. yes?
I mean, it's the first step of what we want. But the Sox began extension talks with Lester and Bogaerts at one point (that we later learned were seriously lowball offers). So I won't be giving the Sox credit for starting talks, yet.
 

6-5 Sadler

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I did a little digging on Spotrac and it seems like it’s fairly rare to extend a 1B this early in their career. In fact, I only found 2 extensions for 1B with only 1 year of service time: Anthony Rizzo (7/$41M with 2 club options) and Paul Goldschmidt (5/$32M with a club option, this deal was signed after year 1 but didn’t kick in until year 3).

Both of those are roughly a decade old but I think that’s the rough template for a Casas extension. Maybe tack on a little for inflation so something like 6/$50M. I don’t think he’s getting anywhere near the guaranteed dollars/years as the players mentioned earlier in the thread as he doesn’t play a premium position and wasn’t as highly regarded as a prospect.
 

YTF

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Starting the discussion is great, but I want it done. They also talked with Mookie and never made a compelling enough offer, which is what I want them to avoid in this situation. Who knows how it all plays out, but I think locking him up as he heads into what we all hope will be a breakout year would be a huge win for the FO and fanbase.
I mean, it's the first step of what we want. But the Sox began extension talks with Lester and Bogaerts at one point (that we later learned were seriously lowball offers). So I won't be giving the Sox credit for starting talks, yet.
No one needs to give credit to anyone for anything, but for the love of God the process has begun and already there is an air of doom and gloom air about it.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I mean, it's the first step of what we want. But the Sox began extension talks with Lester and Bogaerts at one point (that we later learned were seriously lowball offers). So I won't be giving the Sox credit for starting talks, yet.
Not really the same things at all. Lester did sign a pre-arbitration extension when he had one more season of service time than Casas has now (5/$30 + $13M option covering 2009-2014). Bogaerts signed an extension prior to reaching free agency as well. Negotiating extensions of entirely free agency years is a different ball of wax than locking in pre-arb and arbitration years.
 

SouthernBoSox

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So what would an extension look like? The two most recent pre-arb deals were Corbin Carrol ay 8/111 and Wander Franco at 11/182 (oops). Julio got 12/209. These guys obviously give a lot more defensive value than Casas, but gives us some benchmarks.

8/100?
10/125?
Given Casas age I think that unless you give him enormous dollars I’d be surprised to get any more than 2 additional years. Allows him to hit free agency before 30 while allowing for long term certainty rather than year to year play.
 

YTF

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Yes, and that they have talked is really the only noteworthy thing to take away here. Because he's got five years of cost-control left, there is little incentive to overwhelm him with the first offer, so no surprise that he's not "enticed." And while it's encouraging that he says he wants to be in Boston "forever" that's a pretty stock answer for just about every player in his position. The subtext of "forever" is always "at the right price."
Agreed. I just find it disheartening that that vast majority of folks here want to see Casas extended and the first real mention of it induces hand wringing.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Agreed. I just find it disheartening that that vast majority of folks here want to see Casas extended and the first real mention of it induces hand wringing.
The fact the conversations are happening and Casas said he wants to be here forever should be seen as nothing but positive.

This doesn’t have to get done right now. You just want to start the dialogue.

IMO. Casas still need to prove that he can be counted on defensively.
 

sezwho

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The money he's likely to get over the next five years of team control is probably in the range of $30-40M (call it something like $750K, $800K, $5M, $10M, $18M). So 8/100 or 10/125 would put the free agency seasons value at somewhere around $20-24M per. Got to think the price will be higher than that. Probably a decent starting point though.
Thanks, that’s a really clear way to show the current contract ‘value’. Interesting so much of even that amount comes in the last year. I imagine this could even further encourage a player to sign an extension and pull some of that money forward.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I did a little digging on Spotrac and it seems like it’s fairly rare to extend a 1B this early in their career. In fact, I only found 2 extensions for 1B with only 1 year of service time: Anthony Rizzo (7/$41M with 2 club options) and Paul Goldschmidt (5/$32M with a club option, this deal was signed after year 1 but didn’t kick in until year 3).

Both of those are roughly a decade old but I think that’s the rough template for a Casas extension. Maybe tack on a little for inflation so something like 6/$50M. I don’t think he’s getting anywhere near the guaranteed dollars/years as the players mentioned earlier in the thread as he doesn’t play a premium position and wasn’t as highly regarded as a prospect.
Probably worth adding Jon Singleton (Astros) and Evan White (Mariners) to the formula- both first baseman who signed before accruing any MLB service time. Houston offered George Springer a deal at the same time and he declined (7 years $23 million, he ended up earning $37 million during that time, which includes the reduced salary in 2020).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Thanks, that’s a really clear way to show the current contract ‘value’. Interesting so much of even that amount comes in the last year. I imagine this could even further encourage a player to sign an extension and pull some of that money forward.
Pulling some of that money forward is easily the #1 reason that a player signs a pre-arbitration extension. The trade off for that is typically giving up a bit of the value that the player could realize in free agency. The question is what is that value and how much of a discount is acceptable for Casas.
 

JCizzle

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No one needs to give credit to anyone for anything, but for the love of God the process has begun and already there is an air of doom and gloom air about it.
I don't see how it's doom and gloom to say great start, but finish the deal.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I don't see how it's doom and gloom to say great start, but finish the deal.
There is no rush to finish the deal. That’s the point.

Casas posted really horrible defensive numbers. I’d challenge him to better those before signing something long term. Especially given the profile of your cornerstone player - Devers.
 

JCizzle

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There is no rush to finish the deal. That’s the point.

Casas posted really horrible defensive numbers. I’d challenge him to better those before signing something long term. Especially given the profile of your cornerstone player - Devers.
I can definitely appreciate that, but at the same time if he does improve this year - as I think we all hope and expect - doesn't it just mean his price will increase accordingly? I only mentioned Mookie because I really think Casas has the potential to be a cornerstone both on and off the field and am willing to accept a bit of risk to lock him in now. I'm absolutely happy they started the process for that reason.
 

simplicio

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Tatis Jr. has the longest contract in MLB history at 14 years and honestly I'd ask Casas if he wants to break the record. Improve a bit at 1B and stay there till Devers is done at least, then maybe move to DH. I think his bat is going to play forever and his defensive limitations should keep the AAV reasonable.
 

jon abbey

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The issue for 1B in MLB is somewhat similar to RBs in the NFL, GMs think they're basically disposable and replaceable and so they're super hesitant to make a major investment there. I think this is more accurate in the NFL than MLB, but I definitely think it's harder for 1Bs to negotiate a long-term deal than other positions, just look at the issues Pete Alonso is having now with the Mets seemingly not willing to pay up to keep him from FA (after this season).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I can definitely appreciate that, but at the same time if he does improve this year - as I think we all hope and expect - doesn't it just mean his price will increase accordingly? I only mentioned Mookie because I really think Casas has the potential to be a cornerstone both on and off the field and am willing to accept a bit of risk to make it happen.
The thing with Mookie (and not just him historically...Ellsbury and Papelbon took this path too) is he made it clear from the start that he intended to maximize his earnings through free agency, so it meant that an extension had to satisfy that desire. When that's the case, the incentive to do it early isn't really there for the team. If they are going to have to pay retail price for year 7 and 8 and 9 and so on of a player's career, there's no real difference between signing that deal in year 5 or 6 and signing it in year 2. It almost becomes preferable to go year to year and maximize the team advantage seasons since they're not gaining anything on the free agency years.

We can quibble over not getting Betts done in year 5 or 6 (and we have in innumerable threads already) but I really don't think his case is all that applicable when talking about getting a player extended in year 2 of his career. If Casas is amenable to not getting the absolute most he can for his first few years of free agency eligiibility, then there's room to make a deal. If he's not, it's more of a fool's errand to even try at this point.