Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

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Moving the Line
If it was in other threads it would be called a "hot take"....but barring injury I don't see either team getting past Miami. I bought the Heat/Lakers finals ticket earlier in the week I think it's +1800 or something like that. Has to be half that now.
Boinking this up for a bump.
 

bsan34

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At this point, Heat +440 to win the title is probably pretty good value, right? They are the 8 seed because they were old/banged up all year and their 3 pt% took a shit. Now they're healthy and their 3 pt% has reverted back to the top of the league level its been the last couple of years.
 

BigSoxFan

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At this point, Heat +440 to win the title is probably pretty good value, right? They are the 8 seed because they were old/banged up all year and their 3 pt% took a shit. Now they're healthy and their 3 pt% has reverted back to the top of the league level its been the last couple of years.
Yeah, I bought some of that. They are up 2-0 and are going home. The odds of them dropping 2 straight home games is low and even if they somehow do, they can easily win 2 of 3. And then you’ve got a great hedging situation. Of course, if they play the Nuggets, they’ll probably be decent dogs because the betting public can’t fathom that this Heat team is actually legit.

I, for one, am sitting on a Heat +8000 ticket that I got before the playoffs. All it took was one bad thing to Giannis to set this in motion. And that injury happened.
 

Red Averages

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Scooped up a ton of Lakers +moneyline.

we’ll see how this plays out…
Wow. Well anticipating the Refs sidelining Jokic worked out, stopping Murray worked out… and then they couldn’t hit any shot. Wide open 3s, layups. Woof. Credit to the Nuggets for battling through and having their supporting cast step up. Night night Lakers.
 

Red Averages

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I took Celtics first quarter (-110 moneyline), first half (-110) and under first half Heat team total (52.5).

HRB is on the Heat and Heat team total over so be forewarned.

I think the Celtics defensive effort will be very strong at the onset. No idea what happens once they get punched in the mouth though.
 

Auger34

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I just checked in on this thread because I was wondering where the hell HRB went. Hopefully he comes back soon, don’t blame him though, that was a pretty rough interaction
 

Red Averages

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I took Celtics first quarter (-110 moneyline), first half (-110) and under first half Heat team total (52.5).

HRB is on the Heat and Heat team total over so be forewarned.

I think the Celtics defensive effort will be very strong at the onset. No idea what happens once they get punched in the mouth though.
Woof. 0-3, that’s what happens when they are all correlated. This is what I get for going against HRB.
 

Marceline

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I hate betting - odds, but -240 seems like great value on the Heat here. That is 70% implied odds, or assigning the Celtics a 65% chance to win each (individually) of the next 3 games.

where are you seeing that line? Best I have is -270 at DK.
 
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Joe D Reid

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I am the furthest thing from a sharp here, but given what we’ve heard, Brogdan u/9.5 seemed roughly akin to me u/0.5 tonight.
 

Brand Name

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Moving the Line
The line was on RI Sportsbook. It has now changed to Heat -275, Celtics +220.
For future reference for anyone here: RI Sportsbook is run through Will Hill. This in effect is Caesars odds, so they'll be the same ones you see on ESPN, since they sponsor the WWL's programming.
 

Red Averages

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Couldn’t believe the O/U opened at 212.5 I started getting limited to 4 units on DK so had to get creative to get some more down.

At 211 and falling… get it fast…
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Couldn’t believe the O/U opened at 212.5 I started getting limited to 4 units on DK so had to get creative to get some more down.

At 211 and falling… get it fast…
Took the under at 211.5. Thought it was a goner as the 4th rolled on.
Monday night is currently at BOS -8, O/U 203. Really low number but I lean under. Unfortunately also lean MIA +8, but hard not to think that the heat are mentally broken after last night.
 

Red Averages

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Took the under at 211.5. Thought it was a goner as the 4th rolled on.
Monday night is currently at BOS -8, O/U 203. Really low number but I lean under. Unfortunately also lean MIA +8, but hard not to think that the heat are mentally broken after last night.
It opened at 206.6! I’m assuming it’ll close around 200
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ahhh my safe space lol.

Hope a bunch of you followed my Twitter stuff and crushed the past couple weeks. Was telling someone last night that I pride myself in never allowing fandom bias to affect my capping but last night in the live betting space for the first time I can recall it did. We tweeted out the Under and rode some Miami series money to the end with no hedge so wagering wise it was a great night. But it was the live betting opportunities that were fuckin massive last night and I didn't pull the string on any of them.

Following 3 straight emotional elimination wins I had my mind set on looking forward to placing very likely what would be my largest exposure ever on Denver as a slight ML dog in G1 vs Boston knowing that the C's tank would be empty and unable to emotionally handle opponents runs. I refused to acknowledge that this could occur one game sooner even after Miami +7.5 was available for quite some time in the 1Q following Tatum's injury and the early evidence that this offense was out of sinc. I added some Under 197.5 early but kept believing, as a fan, that we could "find a way."

Recognize mistakes, don't repeat them, and improve. In wagering as in life.

Haven't pulled trigger on G1 yet but the Nuggets should score a shit ton of points.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ahhh my safe space lol.

Hope a bunch of you followed my Twitter stuff and crushed the past couple weeks. Was telling someone last night that I pride myself in never allowing fandom bias to affect my capping but last night in the live betting space for the first time I can recall it did. We tweeted out the Under and rode some Miami series money to the end with no hedge so wagering wise it was a great night. But it was the live betting opportunities that were fuckin massive last night and I didn't pull the string on any of them.

Following 3 straight emotional elimination wins I had my mind set on looking forward to placing very likely what would be my largest exposure ever on Denver as a slight ML dog in G1 vs Boston knowing that the C's tank would be empty and unable to emotionally handle opponents runs. I refused to acknowledge that this could occur one game sooner even after Miami +7.5 was available for quite some time in the 1Q following Tatum's injury and the early evidence that this offense was out of sinc. I added some Under 197.5 early but kept believing, as a fan, that we could "find a way."

Recognize mistakes, don't repeat them, and improve. In wagering as in life.

Haven't pulled trigger on G1 yet but the Nuggets should score a shit ton of points.
I, unfortunately, killed it last night shorting the Celtics as an emotional hedge. I’m also sitting on the following tickets:

Heat +8000 to win it all
Heat +2000 to win it all
Heat +750 to win it all
Heat +550 to win it all

All of these in the form of free $10-50 bets. Thoughts on how to effectively hedge this position. I see that Nuggets in 6-7 pays out +450 and +300, respectively. Nuggets sweep +500 or so.

Should I take positions on all three given the odds? Nuggets in 5 is +230 so not great.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I, unfortunately, killed it last night shorting the Celtics as an emotional hedge. I’m also sitting on the following tickets:

Heat +8000 to win it all
Heat +2000 to win it all
Heat +750 to win it all
Heat +550 to win it all

All of these in the form of free $10-50 bets. Thoughts on how to effectively hedge this position. I see that Nuggets in 6-7 pays out +450 and +300, respectively. Nuggets sweep +500 or so.

Should I take positions on all three given the odds? Nuggets in 5 is +230 so not great.
Very nice! The numbers on Miami in these playoffs have been so outrageously off I can't even comprehend it. They looked like the best team in the EC during the series prior to Boston it's literally mind boggling to me these numbers.

Personally I have similar that I played 3-4 weeks ago on Miami and LA so I can pass on what I would do since the emotional toll the Boston series took out of them along with reintroducing Herro into the mix doesn't bode very well for them at least early in the series. A 4-0 sweep of either Miami or Boston was in the cards the way the EC played out especially how the Boston series was aligned by beginning away from Denver.

I'll start with my expectation of either G1 or G2 being a complete bloodbath. The problem is that as a 9-10 pt favorite that you need to hedge only for the win it becomes kinda expensive with ML.
 

BigSoxFan

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Very nice! The numbers on Miami in these playoffs have been so outrageously off I can't even comprehend it. They looked like the best team in the EC during the series prior to Boston it's literally mind boggling to me these numbers.

Personally I have similar that I played 3-4 weeks ago on Miami and LA so I can pass on what I would do since the emotional toll the Boston series took out of them along with reintroducing Herro into the mix doesn't bode very well for them at least early in the series. A 4-0 sweep of either Miami or Boston was in the cards the way the EC played out especially how the Boston series was aligned by beginning away from Denver.

I'll start with my expectation of either G1 or G2 being a complete bloodbath. The problem is that as a 9-10 pt favorite that you need to hedge only for the win it becomes kinda expensive with ML.
Yeah, that’s my problem. Hedging -350 before the series doesn’t seem like the play but I think I might start with some smallish Nuggets in 4-6 positions. Miami stealing one of these first 2 games would be ideal but if they don’t, Nuggets in 5 feels like the result.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hedging talk aside I feel there is great value in Denver's Winning Margin these first two games. Numbers will be short but I don't expect them to be shorter than where I'll have them.
 

mostman

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I went with 10 units on Denver winning the series and 2 units on them sweeping. Almost went 4-1, but I really think Denver rolls here.
 

BigSoxFan

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I went with 10 units on Denver winning the series and 2 units on them sweeping. Almost went 4-1, but I really think Denver rolls here.
I’m sitting on a bunch of Heat tickets (sigh…) so I did Nuggets -1.5 games at -160. Hope they take the first 2, as most expect they will.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Nuggets and Heat are both -115 to score the first basket. Jokic is taller and has a longer wingspan than Adebayo so I'm thinking he's the favorite to win the opening tip. Might put some money on the Nuggets here.
 

BigSoxFan

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Nuggets and Heat are both -115 to score the first basket. Jokic is taller and has a longer wingspan than Adebayo so I'm thinking he's the favorite to win the opening tip. Might put some money on the Nuggets here.
Be careful. Caleb Martin is going to drain an off balance 35 foot three pointer after chasing down an errant pass.
 

HomeRunBaker

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G2 - Played Over 215 yesterday along w some Miami TT Over today. Took Miami +8.5 for nearly 2x more than those totals. Also played a great number for Miami series by using the Prop, Miami Wins G2 and Wins series since that is their primary path. Got a nice boost to +1250 on it.

Love how Miami never quit in G1 despite everything going against them....coming off G7, going into altitude against a rested team, Strus shooting 0-37 (or it seemed anyway). Much like those early games in Boston....this number is off so I'm playing it. They can win this game and the series too. Don't know what it will take for people to believe how good this group is but I hope a lot more to I keep getting good numbers :)
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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G2 - Played Over 215 yesterday along w some Miami TT Over today. Took Miami +8.5 for nearly 2x more than those totals. Also played a great number for Miami series by using the Prop, Miami Wins G2 and Wins series since that is their primary path. Got a nice boost to +1250 on it.

Love how Miami never quit in G1 despite everything going against them....coming off G7, going into altitude against a rested team, Strus shooting 0-37 (or it seemed anyway). Much like those early games in Boston....this number is off so I'm playing it. They can win this game and the series too. Don't know what it will take for people to believe how good this group is but I hope a lot more to I keep getting good numbers :)
Well done HRB!
 

Red Averages

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I immediately hit under 217.5 at FanDuel. Already down to 215.5.
DK had 217 after that still so I did more there… dropped to 216.5. Hit it again. Down to 216 now at DK.

Pretty insane the O/U opened higher for game 3 than game 2, with the Heat shooting almost 50% from 3, the Nuggets shooting 40%, and a 61 point 4th quarter for the (amazing) backdoor over cover to 219 points.

Have to think that settles closer to 212 come game time.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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* Miami +2.5 (Game 3)

Again, I just don't understand this market and how it rates Miami. I had them as the best team in the East during the Bucks series and surely haven't seen anything to suggest otherwise. Dogs at home against a team who has never been on this stage, is a different team on the road and have shown some issues defensively in the half court? GTFOH. I had them +3.5 IN Denver and -5.5 in G3 at home. So yeah, I'll be playing Miami again and likely again and again until their parade.

Are people still looking at regular season numbers in the NBA Playoffs? Hey @Brand Name, remember when I told you what I do with all my hard earned regular season numbers work on Day 1 of the playoffs? ;)
 
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riveraulwick

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Right about there
G2 - Played Over 215 yesterday along w some Miami TT Over today. Took Miami +8.5 for nearly 2x more than those totals. Also played a great number for Miami series by using the Prop, Miami Wins G2 and Wins series since that is their primary path. Got a nice boost to +1250 on it.

Love how Miami never quit in G1 despite everything going against them....coming off G7, going into altitude against a rested team, Strus shooting 0-37 (or it seemed anyway). Much like those early games in Boston....this number is off so I'm playing it. They can win this game and the series too. Don't know what it will take for people to believe how good this group is but I hope a lot more to I keep getting good numbers :)
Thank you so much HRB. I had Miami +8 and o/217 and then, in a fit of trust in your insight, placed a Miami straight up wager right before gametime.

Choking on winnings this morning.
 

Red Averages

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Market has been so far off on this team over the past month I'm actually glad the number is moving that way. I added a little.
Thoughts on the under? I have a lot near 216-217.5 and it’s drifted down to 213 pre tip-off. Debating if it makes sense to hedge some if the game starts slow.
 

Red Averages

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I hit the under at 211 when it came out for Game 4. Just feels like the pace will continue to come down and confident Spo will try to slow down the Joker/Murray P&R that torched them over and over again. Game 3 finished at 203 and that was with about 15 points in the last two minutes with 3s and fouling.

I took some Heat +140 with under on a parlay as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I took some Under 211 but 75% of play is 1H Under 107. We have officially entered "the half court zone where both teams know when the opponent is doing before they do."