Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

Mloaf71

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How do we feel about the Harden under points tonight and this series generally?

Celtics guards seem well positioned to make his life very difficult, does he just become a facilitator?
 

HomeRunBaker

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How do we feel about the Harden under points tonight and this series generally?

Celtics guards seem well positioned to make his life very difficult, does he just become a facilitator?
No real opinion. Harden will probably be more aggressive without Embiid but much of that will depend on whether guys like Maxey and Harris have their offense going. Then you have his 3-pt variance. Nah not touching either way myself.
 

Marceline

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Sprinkled about a .3u flier on Nuggets in 4 at +800 as I see this path occurring more often than that number indicates. The Suns lack of continuity, injury risk, and a higher rate of “quit” then a typical team if they get down in G3 make this good value. I expect the Suns to play much better in G2 but this number seems off.
I have Nuggets sweep as +1050 at Wynn.
You’re right about this, just doing some quick math at -180 for tonight and let’s say +100 for the next 2 in Phoenix, odds should be +522.

Nice call - great value here.

+800 number implies +140 for Denver in the Phoenix games or +172 at the +1050, can’t see any way it gets that high.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played Sixers +10

Very good chance Embiid plays tonight which would bring number down to 7 or so.
 

Red Averages

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Played Sixers +10

Very good chance Embiid plays tonight which would bring number down to 7 or so.
Ha I was coming to post in here I think this is a classic game where the Celtics play with their food and eek out a win, with game 2 the actual blowout scenario.

I actually think Embiid could be a net negative if hobbled. I'm more fearful about significant ball movement and the 76ers taking 50 3s with the chance that 38%+ of them fall in. A slower Embiid with the Celtics taking it a bit more serious seems like a good thing for the Celtics (but still not a blowout).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Embiid participating at shootaround. Here is history of playing/injury designation:

Doubtful: 4 times, played 3 times
Questionable: 12 times, played 11 times
Out: 5 times, played 1

I expect him to play and gets us some CLV. If he doesn’t play that’s still a big number that have option to get out of easily.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played Warriors +225 to come out of the West and I’m sure there are better numbers. For some reason I was expecting them to be the favorites maybe st +150 but uh yeah sure I’ll take this price.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Embiid participating at shootaround. Here is history of playing/injury designation:

Doubtful: 4 times, played 3 times
Questionable: 12 times, played 11 times
Out: 5 times, played 1

I expect him to play and gets us some CLV. If he doesn’t play that’s still a big number that have option to get out of easily.
Reiterating from earlier that we’re still being told that Embiid will play…..despite what Woj is saying. Something could change during warmups but that is the plan right now.

Edit: Now widespread news is that Embiid won’t play.
 
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Smokey Joe

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Reiterating from earlier that we’re still being told that Embiid will play…..despite what Woj is saying. Something could change during warmups but that is the plan right now.

Edit: Now widespread news is that Embiid won’t play.
This is giving me “Simmons in 2022 playoffs” vibes.
 

SteveF

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o/u is moving up, presumably because of the expectation of a faster pace with Embiid out. up to 215.5 some places.
 

Red Averages

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Played Warriors +225 to come out of the West and I’m sure there are better numbers. For some reason I was expecting them to be the favorites maybe st +150 but uh yeah sure I’ll take this price.
I see +250.
But if you think Lakers could steal game 1, that’ll shoot way up afterwards.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I see a Lakers game 1/GSW series prop for +500
I played that earlier at +450 it’s very solid price.

Came here to post msg from buddy who is a sharp props guy. He’s playing Brogdon Overs now that Embiid is out anticipating more 3-guard lineups so some extra minutes for Malcolm. PRA is 20.5 with the individual numbers in line with that.
 

shawnrbu

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Came here to post msg from buddy who is a sharp props guy. He’s playing Brogdon Overs now that Embiid is out anticipating more 3-guard lineups so some extra minutes for Malcolm. PRA is 20.5 with the individual numbers in line with that.
Points were 12.5 and Brogdon cleared it with about 4 minutes left in the 2nd Quarter.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I have Nuggets sweep as +1050 at Wynn.
You’re right about this, just doing some quick math at -180 for tonight and let’s say +100 for the next 2 in Phoenix, odds should be +522.

Nice call - great value here.

+800 number implies +140 for Denver in the Phoenix games or +172 at the +1050, can’t see any way it gets that high.
Nuggets Win - check
Key Suns starter leaves w injury - check

Couldn’t ask for more out of this game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don’t play many ML parlays but am hopping into that market today.

Played Knicks/Celtics (-145) full game. I opened Knicks 1H and Knicks 1Q with intent to fill w Celtics 1H and 1Q. I really like the 1H one based on likely getting plus money or even at worst and will have this one 2.5x the others. The 1Q will be most plus money but highest variance.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I found some Under 217.5 for tonight and if there are points early I’ll add more 2H.

This Lakers/Warriors series is so intriguing enough even with all these series and WC plays but here’s where I stand at the moment…..

I’ve got Lakers WC at +1200 from two months ago. Warriors WC at +225 as I like either to handle Denver/Phoenix winner. Have LA G1/Warriors series at +450. So sitting pretty sweet here.

They have been the best team in the WC since deadline and best defensive team in the league. Great signs that every single night a different role player is stepping up to help LeBron/Reaves/Davis. If it’s not Hachimura, it’s Schroder. If it’s not Schroder, it’s Russell. If it’s not Russell, it’s Vanderbilt. Every.Single.Game for the past couple months.

Having said that…..Warriors have arguably the #3 GOAT (yes I’m going there) still in his prime and a matchup that favors them. If I didn’t add the +450 LA1/GS series I’d be adding more Warriors series and/or WC but as of not sitting tight.
 

Auger34

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I found some Under 217.5 for tonight and if there are points early I’ll add more 2H.

This Lakers/Warriors series is so intriguing enough even with all these series and WC plays but here’s where I stand at the moment…..

I’ve got Lakers WC at +1200 from two months ago. Warriors WC at +225 as I like either to handle Denver/Phoenix winner. Have LA G1/Warriors series at +450. So sitting pretty sweet here.

They have been the best team in the WC since deadline and best defensive team in the league. Great signs that every single night a different role player is stepping up to help LeBron/Reaves/Davis. If it’s not Hachimura, it’s Schroder. If it’s not Schroder, it’s Russell. If it’s not Russell, it’s Vanderbilt. Every.Single.Game for the past couple months.

Having said that…..Warriors have arguably the #3 GOAT (yes I’m going there) still in his prime and a matchup that favors them. If I didn’t add the +450 LA1/GS series I’d be adding more Warriors series and/or WC but as of not sitting tight.
Very interesting.

I think the Warriors are the worst possible matchup for the Nuggets. They have the personnel needed to actually play Jokic straight up (with Looney) or to go 5 out (put Green at center as the de facto PG with shooters around him).

However, I think the Nuggets match up very favorably to the Lakers and I expect they would beat them. Lakers don’t have the shooting to truly spread them out. I think Denver can play Jokic in drop and have him sag off of AD, who has been a pretty bad shooter other than the bubble playoffs.

Nerf gun to my head, I think the Warriors win it all. Line-up versatility, shooting, an all time great and they have the playoff pedigree.

I pray to God I am wrong
 

HomeRunBaker

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Coming right back with Sixers +8. There is no way these G1 & G2 numbers have been heavily inflated. I expect a competitive game I don’t know why these numbers haven’t been in the 5-6 range.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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I took the Denver sweep at +900 after game 1 as discussed here. I’ve now added Denver -1.5 series spread at -175 and Denver -2.5 at +105.

Essentially ladder my sweep bet. You can still get that at +390 btw.

Will be taking Horford O 3pm lines any game Embiid plays the rest of the series.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I like both road teams on Friday but won’t be playing anything pregame. I’m going to use targets for live betting to take advantage of 1Q/1H runs by the home team to add some points to the position. Right now thinking Celtics +4.5 and Nuggets +7.5 or something along those lines. I like the chances of each becoming available at some point in the first 24.
 

Mloaf71

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Celtics opened at -1.5 on the road in the online books I've seen this morning.
 

Red Averages

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I like both road teams on Friday but won’t be playing anything pregame. I’m going to use targets for live betting to take advantage of 1Q/1H runs by the home team to add some points to the position. Right now thinking Celtics +4.5 and Nuggets +7.5 or something along those lines. I like the chances of each becoming available at some point in the first 24.
Thoughts on unders for the next 3 games?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thoughts on unders for the next 3 games?
This is the season for Under value plain and simple. I mentioned this again, as I do each year, at the start of the playoffs on how the markets are generally 1-2 games behind in making the proper line adjustment. When I say “market” I’m referring to bettors crafting the number and not the fictitious “Vegas” as casuals sometimes like to coin it.

The G2 defensive adjustments are NEVER (and I never say never but in this case it’s never) accurstely accounted for as the recency bias of watching a G1 without seeing a team takes hold. Yesterday was perfect storm with it being a G2 with both teams defensive feeling out process front and center in peoples minds AND the return of Embiid to slow the game while defending his rim.

It would take a lot for me to play an Over in the playoffs aside from a G1 where they are pretty solid since defensive game plans have yet to be established. It truly is a feeling out process for a long series. I think 214 is high as I believe last nights closed at or around 215 and despite the Celtics 3-pt barrage was never really in doubt.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ooooops I forgot to mention that I came right back with U227 tonight for same reasoning with the thought that we don’t get another 130-pt 1H. With defenses more aligned with the sets they will have a greater advantage in a second game.
 

Red Averages

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37 point 4th Quarter. Will gladly take that push.
That was wild. They were 227.5 for most books until today, so a nice reminder to try to get these in before the lines move down closer to game time. Nice win.

Meanwhile Golden State shot 50% (!) from 3 to get this to 227 points and the O/U for Saturday opens at… 227.5.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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I realize this is the NBA betting thread, but we have posted general betting advice and we have had discussions around other sports previously. And since we are all degenerates to a degree, I wanted to know if any of you had any thoughts or angles on the Derby tomorrow. I like Angel of Empire with an outside position and coming off an Arkansas Derby win, which has been a decent barometer for preparation for the Derby. The odds have dropped to 5/1 after the withdrawals of Skinner and Lord Miles who are each from the Curlin lineage. Currently thinking Angel of Empire to win, Exacta with Tapit Trice, and possibly a show bet on Derma Sotogake.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I realize this is the NBA betting thread, but we have posted general betting advice and we have had discussions around other sports previously. And since we are all degenerates to a degree, I wanted to know if any of you had any thoughts or angles on the Derby tomorrow. I like Angel of Empire with an outside position and coming off an Arkansas Derby win, which has been a decent barometer for preparation for the Derby. The odds have dropped to 5/1 after the withdrawals of Skinner and Lord Miles who are each from the Curlin lineage. Currently thinking Angel of Empire to win, Exacta with Tapit Trice, and possibly a show bet on Derma Sotogake.
I know nothing about horses but a respected pro capper and friend is playing the #3 Two Phil's. I'll be putting together a large spread play using the #3 all over the board on Tri and Super to try and get lucky by knocking some of these favorites out of the mix.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played the Horford scoring Overs earlier with Embiid playing. Forgot to come here.

7.5 points -125
1.5 threes -155

Not sure if they will still be available but the points still is at one of my PPH so maybe.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know nothing about horses but a respected pro capper and friend is playing the #3 Two Phil's. I'll be putting together a large spread play using the #3 all over the board on Tri and Super to try and get lucky by knocking some of these favorites out of the mix.
:unsure::unsure:
I've been tied up in NJ and PA all week so didn't even think of spending time on this until today which is when I didn't have time.

$1 Super paid 320k!! $1 Tri $14.8k! Even the $2 Exacta paid $4k! I mean seriously wtf. No idea if my big spread catches the Super or even the Tri....but even a $10 Ex wheel for 400 gets back 20k. I could have made a brainless play to do that. Ugh.
 

Mloaf71

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I went back to Harden under points and Jaylen over points.

Just feels like Harden is going to get slower and slower as series progresses and Jaylen has locked him down.

Jaylen is nothing more than a feeling he’s due for one of his big games.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Wednesday Night

* Warriors -6.5
* Lakers TT U109.5
* Warriors Margin 17+

I don't like throwing the term "max bet" around but this should be a bloodbath. I drive back to FL on Wednesday but you can be sure that there will be additional live casino tickets coming down with me.

Surprised that the Totals in LA/GS and Bos/Phil aren't getting hit hard. This is the time of the series I often speak about where the market is a game of two behind.

I also played some Nuggets tonight for a much more responsible number than I will the Warriors today.