Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Only play in first game is sticking with my Horford Points Over in Embiid games....still only 8.5

If you can find Over 1.5 threes not juiced to the moon that's good too but not going to lay -181
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Celtics +220 to win the East.
If it was in other threads it would be called a "hot take"....but barring injury I don't see either team getting past Miami. I bought the Heat/Lakers finals ticket earlier in the week I think it's +1800 or something like that. Has to be half that now.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Played Knicks -3.5 pretty good tonight and some margins 17+ as the Heat may be susceptible to packing it in during a Knicks 2H run.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Knicks look like they booked their vacations on the off day. I took Heat live +1.5 to get out of the Knicks bet. I'd suggest same if you can. Worth the middle risk and I rarely like nearly never do this.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Outstanding. Big night HRB
Amateurish getting out of the Knicks play at a sports bar in Georgia while driving home. Memo to kids....do not make wagering decisions on Hour 14 of drive on 3 hours sleep. Perfect example of how you must eliminate emotions from this game. Warrior game went nearly perfect, added some live after Q1 for above reason....could have used another hope for a +1400 sprinkle on spread and the Davis injury wasn't ideal for WC +1200 play (or whatever number I got two months ago).

Edit: Jealous of you guys in legal states. Opened up SugarHouse (PA) acct and forgot I had AD to not have triple double at +330. That's some RunGood w/ 9 rebounds before the apparent wheelchair came out.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Similar spot tonight with team who has its back against the wall having a significant advantage. Difference is that Boston doesn't have its hike crowd behind them like NY and GS did. This also means they don't have to be concerned with being booed out of their own building so it works both ways.

Being on the road in these spots tends to take the pressure off for the reason mentioned above. I expect Boston to have a good 1H while making the necessary adjustments as they did in G2.

* I played some Celtics -2 but my primary wager is the 1H -1 which I like a lot here. I will also be targeting Horford props again as those same opportunities will be there for him.

* Denver +3 was played for same as Celtics full game.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
4,039
Durant O 30.5 points
Horford O 1.5 3PM
Tailing Celtics 1H

I'm already loaded up on Nuggets -1.5 in series record outcome so passing on the +3 tonight.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Sticking with game plan for 2H. Emotions aside...Philly -1.5 2H is the right side here. This game is going to be a barnburner and I'll take the 5.5 for same as my C's -2 for a nice middle as well.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,246
I’m hammering 204 for the game 7 under. Celtics clearly found something with the 2 bigs defensive lineup. Despite shooting 43% from 3 the Cs only got 95 points. 76ers didn’t shoot well, but had a lot of points off of all the Celtics turnovers. Expecting more of a rock fight game 7.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
DK now limiting me to $50 max on full game o/u. HRB your tips have been too good.
Pathetic! One day Circa Sports will expand beyond Nevada, Colorado and Iowa to be in every state. One day.

What state are you in? You must have other options.
 

Marceline

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
6,465
Canton, MA
Pathetic! One day Circa Sports will expand beyond Nevada, Colorado and Iowa to be in every state. One day.

What state are you in? You must have other options.
I’m in MA, I can still get decent bets in at Wynn and FD. Game 7 has already dropped to 203.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
I’m in MA, I can still get decent bets in at Wynn and FD. Game 7 has already dropped to 203.
I still see value in anything above 201 especially if this is a 3:30 start. Like all of these games in Boston there is only one side to play when the Sixers are getting 7.5 or 8-pts. In what expects to be a slow game with fewer possessions those 8 points carry even greater value. I'll be so good with a 98-93 Celtics win.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Still 203 from what I can see. Lot of dispersion. DK is still 203 so I hammered that again. Seeing 202 at Ceasars/Wynn. 202.5 at FD.
If you can get 203 that's a quick grab as it's mispriced compared to the market. Sharp books are all 201.5 and one at 202.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Playing any sides tonight, or focusing on unders?
I got good numbers on the Unders when they came out two days ago. I may look for a live spot for sides and I've got futures on both Warriors (this series +225) and Lakers (WC winner +1200) so yeah pretty much rooting against human achievement tonight...except on the defensive end.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Added a prop in the late game....

Looks like Wiggins is going to give it a go. I'm not optimistic on him being very productive with damaged ribs that would keep him out of a regular season game.

* U15.5 Pts for Mr. Wiggins.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
I got good numbers on the Unders when they came out two days ago. I may look for a live spot for sides and I've got futures on both Warriors (this series +225) and Lakers (WC winner +1200) so yeah pretty much rooting against human achievement tonight...except on the defensive end.
I followed HRB’s lead and locked in Lakers at +1500 WC Winner around the trade deadline and enjoyed the roller coaster ride the whole second half of the season.

This morning the Nuggets are -135 on FanDuel to win the WCF if anyone is looking to lock in profits and hedge out some portion of their Lakers bet.
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
Went Celtics -12 (+250) and U207 at half time.

Assumed officiating would even up and 76ers would give up if the tides turned.

That second half was fun!
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
I added some U201 and really had to sweat out the garbage time ending. Close one!
I added U207 at the half. The first 4 min of the 4Q was pure pain.....but it all worked out in the end.

Grabbed Heat +8 at one place while Tatum was still being interviewed. Took some 7.5 later. Tough bounce back following a G7 and these numbers at Garden have been so inflated. I'm leaning Over 210 but haven't dived into it yet.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
* Over 210.5 in G1 Bos/Mia.

Number is where I'd have it several games in once each defense knows what the offense is doing before they do. I expect G1 to have more of a free pace and think this number is 4-5 pts too low in a non-defensive schemed game with plenty of open threes.

One thing to watch for in this series and espeically in the first two games live betting. The Heat are dangerous when engaged in a tight game but once it gets away from them their style has cracks that often lead to blowouts. I can see myself playing either side live based on how early action and tempo favors one team.

* Series Over 5.5 games (-120)

I expect an adjustment-filled competitive zig-zag series here and going to sprinkle some on Over 6.5 (+280) and Celtics 4-3 exact score (+400).
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,246
I was focused on first half overs and first quarter, as I'm a bit worried the pace will slow meaningfully towards the 4th quarter if it's tight. If It's not tight, I think it's because one team can't hit a bucket, which isn't great for the over.

Any thoughts on Lakers/Den game 1? I took some under.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
I was focused on first half overs and first quarter, as I'm a bit worried the pace will slow meaningfully towards the 4th quarter if it's tight. If It's not tight, I think it's because one team can't hit a bucket, which isn't great for the over.

Any thoughts on Lakers/Den game 1? I took some under.
No I'm letting that series marinate before investing. I'm well positioned on a Lakers series win so no need to overexpose a marginal spot and I'm not buying this Nuggets teams yet as one that can grind out wins in a grind it out series.

Players props could be another story as you may get some good Hachimura numbers to play Over as his minutes should expand as their secondary big in a Jokic matchup. Or look Under one of the guards who will lose some minutes to him such as Walker or Schroder.
 

Marceline

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
6,465
Canton, MA
I was thinking the same thing about the number of games in BOS/MIA going over. Celtics seem like they always let a couple winnable games slip away. Seems like Celtics in 6 or 7 to me.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Waiting to hear on our lineup but I'd imagine we stay big as we did last year vs Miami following consecutive wins. Unlikely to return TL to the bench without an actionable reason to do so. I'm very interested in some props based that will be lineup based once we get confirmation.

Edit: 2BIGZ confirmed. Time to get to work.
 
Last edited:

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
Seeing the following props for tonight out there:

Schroeder:
U8.5 points +100
U2.5 assists +130
U12.5 P+A -130
U11.5 P+R -145

Walker:
U8.5 points -105
U10.5 P+R -110

Don’t see any Rui props yet.

Anything jump off the page at anyone?
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
6,211
I would suggest, if they're low, the lesser tier nuggets that lebron will guard. My guess is he doesnt play defense until game 4 or 5
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,732
Prettty much done with this place. Sorry you guys missed an easy winner tonight that I didn't post here but enough is enough. Find me on Twitter, SharpCapper5@VPoker5
 

TrapperAB

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 25, 2002
3,325
West Hartford, CT
Much easier to just ignore Myt than the rest of us, I have found.
100%. He’s the only regular poster I’ve ever seriously considered putting on perma-ignore. He has points to make, but struggles with civility.

I’m not a gambler, but I read this thread religiously for all of the insight and analysis. Hope you don’t leave, @HomeRunBaker. Love what you write in here.
 

zak1013

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
254
Agree, super appreciative of the insights here HRB! It’s been quite a fun season for me. Whatever you choose to do is of course completely your decision, but I’m very sorry to see you considering leaving.
 

Light-Tower-Power

ask me about My Pillow
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2013
16,208
Nashua, NH
Agree, super appreciative of the insights here HRB! It’s been quite a fun season for me. Whatever you choose to do is of course completely your decision, but I’m very sorry to see you considering leaving.
Second! And not just for the gambling, I’ve learned a lot about the game from reading HRB’s posts. Hope he hangs around.
 
Last edited:

Senator Donut

post-Domer
SoSH Member
Apr 21, 2010
5,575
Prettty much done with this place. Sorry you guys missed an easy winner tonight that I didn't post here but enough is enough. Find me on Twitter, SharpCapper5@VPoker5
I must have missed the offending post, but keep in mind this is a person who had a reputation for a lack of civility before becoming a shut-in for three years. I threw you a follow regardless, but I'm more interested in reading about your process than your picks.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 2, 2016
1,012
Hanover, PA
Say it ain't so @HomeRunBaker. No posts in two days while in the thick of the conference finals is not good. Came here frequently for the excellent analysis, discussion, and of course the picks. I will sheepishly post mine to start the discussion back up, so fade away:

Bos/Mia U215.5 - Celtics play with more fire and focus tonight and no way Miami shoots that well again.
Lakers -5.5 - Home cooking wakes up Lebron a bit and the Lakers will be playing 8 on 5.
First Mission 5/2 to win Preakness
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,404
Say it ain't so @HomeRunBaker. No posts in two days while in the thick of the conference finals is not good. Came here frequently for the excellent analysis, discussion, and of course the picks. I will sheepishly post mine to start the discussion back up, so fade away:

Bos/Mia U215.5 - Celtics play with more fire and focus tonight and no way Miami shoots that well again.
Lakers -5.5 - Home cooking wakes up Lebron a bit and the Lakers will be playing 8 on 5.
First Mission 5/2 to win Preakness
Yeah, I foolishly took the over last night after being seduced by the Game 1 score. I feel like Garth hosting “Wayne’s World” alone right now…
 

Mloaf71

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
644
Throw HRB a follow on Twitter @VPoker5. He posts some of his plays, unfortunately, you don’t get the deep thoughts and analysis we had here.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 2, 2016
1,012
Hanover, PA
Yeah, I foolishly took the over last night after being seduced by the Game 1 score. I feel like Garth hosting “Wayne’s World” alone right now…
That is an excellent analogy. HRB...We're not worthy. @Red Averages too.

Throw HRB a follow on Twitter @VPoker5. He posts some of his plays, unfortunately, you don’t get the deep thoughts and analysis we had here.
For some unknown reason, my twitter account has been suspended. I never use it and only have a few follows. I don't like it or get it.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,246
I couldn't believe the Nuggets team total posted at 109.5. I had bet that under this morning fairly aggressively, along with Lakers -5.5, and just saw that HRB took the under on the TT and the Lakers. Helps to impersonate the GoAT.

I have no idea on the Celtics / Heat game. I took a little bit of the under, but not going crazy. I'm going to take some Celtics + Lakers moneyline first half as a parlay as a way to isolate both of these teams coming out focused and motivated. That parlay is 1-1 odds.

Might add some in game tonight if we get an opportunity.