Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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HRB you mentioned earlier you had some ways you approach not getting limited with these folks…would think that’s a real issue if you get tagged regularly hitting stale lines, right?
If I wanted to book myself I could get 30 clients tomorrow from the poker rooms here. I’ve referred several guys to each “Bruno” so I’m getting them a bunch of action that isn’t mine (and long term loses) and a couple of the guys think my action is from referrals. It’s worked out well bc these guys are firing during football but I do have some concerns from now to August which is why I don’t want to burn them out. My biggest volume from now to then will come in NBA playoffs and weekly UFC/Bellator but it could be worth it on multiple levels to set up in a legal state for these alone.
 

zak1013

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Jul 14, 2005
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Did we decide we’re allowed to talk about Super Bowl bets here?

DK offering +100 on either Hurts or Sanders to score a rushing TD (boosted from -170 according to them; don’t see this specific prop listed elsewhere). On quick check it looks like this happened in all but 2 of the games this season (excluding the two games Hurts missed in December). Seems solid.
 

BigSoxFan

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Did we decide we’re allowed to talk about Super Bowl bets here?

DK offering +100 on either Hurts or Sanders to score a rushing TD (boosted from -170 according to them; don’t see this specific prop listed elsewhere). On quick check it looks like this happened in all but 2 of the games this season (excluding the two games Hurts missed in December). Seems solid.
Weird. I don’t see that promo here in NJ. I would be all over that.
 

zak1013

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Just rechecked the email they sent…apparently it was only good from 6-9pm today. Seems like they are offering one per day this week.
 

BigSoxFan

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Just rechecked the email they sent…apparently it was only good from 6-9pm today. Seems like they are offering one per day this week.
Interesting. I live in NJ but work in NYC and sometimes notice that they have different promos in each. I don’t believe I got that email although they’ll be running promos all week so no worries.
 

zak1013

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I totally agree with the earlier point that it’s crazy to me that more states haven’t jumped on this more quickly. Especially a state like Florida that doesn’t have an income tax.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I totally agree with the earlier point that it’s crazy to me that more states haven’t jumped on this more quickly. Especially a state like Florida that doesn’t have an income tax.
FL, which like CT also took longer than one would expect, has an agreement with a tribe from long ago where the language didn’t account for a day like today as nobody ever considered “mobile sports betting” when they signed it. This results in each party interpreting the pact in a way that would benefit them…..thus the stalemate. In the case of FL, their interpretation was brought to litigation and a judge make a (correct, imo) ruling.
 

zak1013

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I get it. I was just trying to make a broader point which is that it continually amazes me that these parties can’t look past their own near-sighted vested interests and come up with a solution that will benefit everyone in the longer term. (Clearly I’m not cynical enough)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Memphis Grizzlies, losers of 8 of 9, with seven of those games without Steven Adams, are 9.5 pt favorites tonight vs Chicago, who will likely be shorthanded. If there is ever such a thing as a “trap” line this is it…..I took some Bulls +9.5 so go ahead and trap me with a 9-pt Grizz win. Also played OKC +6.5 in LA as I can see this scoring record thing affecting the other Lakers players moreso than LeBron. Number seems too wide as well.
 

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For book shopping, I know HRB has it but you’ve got to get SpankOdds. Free for now, incredible diversity of book selections, lets you find middles and arbs. Great for finding books that are offering me better than my own numbers. I’m an originator who likes to mix top down and bottom up, depending on a book’s sharpness.

I’m limited by my job to only bet onshore no matter the sport (and not at all on MLB, NHL) so it’s marginally less helpful to me but figure it’s of use to a ton of people here.

In any case, FanDuel giving me +108 for under 0.5 goals by VfL Bochum (against Bayern Munich!) in the Bunesliga for Saturday is awesome. Good through -103 here. Above +6% EV.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ok guys stuff getting real here with the Lakers. Westbrook hits injury report as Questionable this morning and LeBron tweeting out eyeballs last night. While the WC +1600 is long gone from when I posted it yesterday (I see +700 this morning) there is another market that hasn’t yet been touched yet…..the 6th Man of the Year.

If/When Russ is traded he’s almost certainly going to be starting as the acquiring team (esp. Brooklyn) isn’t going to want to start things off on the wrong foot out of the gate. So while Russ will still qualify for the Award having come off the bench for more games than he started……will the voters, who are notoriously addicted to recency bias, even consider him for the Award? I don’t feel that most would.

Many books took this market down but I found a couple posted this morning. I see:

Russ -135 (LOL)
Brogdon +150
Maxey +500
Powell +550

We know about Brogdon but we also know about his injury history. He would likely be the favorite real soon so that price could end up being a steal however if he misses time down the stretch there is value available in the next tier.

Maxey wouldn’t be eligible today with 22 starts while coming off the bench for 10 even though his current role is as 6th man. He could gain a ton of momentum down the stretch espeically if the Sixers overtake Boston for the Atlantic.

Powell (+550) in LA is quietly getting real comfortable in his role putting up 20ppg over the last 5 weeks. With continued Load Mgmt for Kawhi/PG his usage will continue to be high and he’s likely to remain in his bench role.

Others to keep eye on, or even throw pepperoni money on, include Mathurin (+2500), Poole (+8000) and Wood (+20000).

I’m beginning to leverage these today and in the coming days. I’ll profit some with Brogdon but the Maxey/Powell tier is going to be where I’m really looking for value.
Updated consensus from my sites (best estimate I can gather). As expected, market cooling on Russ and Brogdon now small favorite wherever entire market hasn’t been pulled.

Brogdon +130
Russ +150
Maxey +500
Powell +600

I hit more Brogdon and some Powell today.

I’m keeping Maxey small as where he is currently any Harden or Melton injury would push him into the starting lineup and he’s still 10 games off the bench behind qualifying. Way too much right now to invest at that price. Rooting for a Russ trade.
 

zak1013

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tonight’s DK Super Bowl special is that you can bet either team to score first boosted to +150. So essentially giving you a risk free option on whichever side you prefer if you arb it at another book (although very small stakes).
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Check your 6th man market in the morning. Maybe you can catch someone sleeping at the wheel where Russ is still a favorite or close to one. I love my positions primarily with Brogdon and Powell here I only wish I could have gotten down for more.
 

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Late night big player gets traded means time to lay some big cash on some futures on some sleepy books, while the sun is not risen...

+300 Suns to win the Pacific, betMGM. Pretty much nowhere else gives me better than +210. Probably not there now but hey.

Also loading the hell up on Bulls stuff for tomorrow. Last I'm still seeing +3.5 -115 on betway for Chicago. Between that and +128 ML at FD for the Bulls, whee. Cam Thomas or not, look every possible angle.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My sites take all the futures down once the games begin so I can’t get any stale Suns line and am stuck w my Clipper division ticket and Laker WC. At least I’ve got all my Grizzlies preseason Unders. Sigh.
 

HomeRunBaker

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6th man market back up.

Brogdon -150
Russ +200
Powell +450

Surprised Powell hasn’t gotten hit any more than this.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m not a big blind trend guy but digging around tonight I found something interesting about recent NBA results on past SB Sundays. It does correlate to the old “Christmas Day Unders” that were gold for many years so maybe there is something with holidays/big days that generate less scoring/slower pace.

Last year there were two afternoon games scheduled with each being Unders, one by 10 pts and the Celtics game by nearly 30. The year prior there were 5 games played….all 5 finished well below the total as well. Of course this also correlates to the “Sunday afternoon Under” that we’ve discussed over the years here.

Both games have overnight totals posted at 229.5 so do with that as you wish.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Any good player props for the Super Bowl?
Sorry just saw this. The only prop I played esrly was Gainwell Over 17.5(?) Rushing Yards earlier in the week, I haven’t checked to see what it is now but I assume higher. The Eagles are run-heavy and Sanders isn’t going to get all the work against a Chiefs defense that you can move the chains against in the middle of the field. He’s had 26 carries in the two playoff games and while many of these were to save Sanders from 2H wear and tear in blowouts I expect that he’s done enough to gain the trust of his coaches to get at least 4-5 touches in their game plan.

I’m waiting to play these as the market typically moves heavy to the overs on a Super Bowl pushing numbers up as the public loves playing overs. I don’t particularly like what I’ve seen from Hurts throwing the ball since his return from a shoulder injury and with the Eagles propensity to run the ball coupled with the Chiefs slow ball control offense I’m looking at a bunch of Hurts Unders….239.5 Pass Yds, 295.5 Pass/Rush Yds, & 37.5 Longest Completion (my fave) along with 1Q and 1H Under Pass Yds. They yards props have crept higher all week so I’ll wait until just before the game to play them to maybe sneak a couple more yards on there.

I guess I like the Chiefs as I’m holding a decent enough +550 ticket from around Week 6 or so and I don’t seem to have any inclination to play back on the Eagles. I did play two “exact score” props w KC winning 27-24 and 27-21, I believe they were both around +4500 or so. EDIT: 27-24 is +4400, 27-21 is +12,500.

Two things I’ll look for with live betting is to play KC +3.5 and/or +7.5 if trailing and to play the Over live if the offenses get conservative early and I can get maybe a 5-6 pt discount on the pregame number.
 
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benhogan

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Sorry just saw this. The only prop I played esrly was Gainwell Over 17.5(?) Rushing Yards earlier in the week, I haven’t checked to see what it is now but I assume higher. The Eagles are run-heavy and Sanders isn’t going to get all the work against a Chiefs defense that you can move the chains against in the middle of the field. He’s had 26 carries in the two playoff games and while many of these were to save Sanders from 2H wear and tear in blowouts I expect that he’s done enough to gain the trust of his coaches to get at least 4-5 touches in their game plan.

I’m waiting to play these as the market typically moves heavy to the overs on a Super Bowl pushing numbers up as the public loves playing overs. I don’t particularly like what I’ve seen from Hurts throwing the ball since his return from a shoulder injury and with the Eagles propensity to run the ball coupled with the Chiefs slow ball control offense I’m looking at a bunch of Hurts Unders….239.5 Pass Yds, 295.5 Pass/Rush Yds, & 37.5 Longest Completion (my fave) along with 1Q and 1H Under Pass Yds. They yards props have crept higher all week so I’ll wait until just before the game to play them to maybe sneak a couple more yards on there.

I guess I like the Chiefs as I’m holding a decent enough +550 ticket from around Week 6 or so and I don’t seem to have any inclination to play back on the Eagles. I did play two “exact score” props w KC winning 27-24 and 27-21, I believe they were both around +4500 or so.

Two things I’ll look for with live betting is to play KC +3.5 and/or +7.5 if trailing and to play the Over live if the offenses get conservative early and I can get maybe a 5-6 pt discount on the pregame number.
Every Super Bowl, one of my good friends and I throw a nickel on SACKs over (it's 5.5 today). It's a fun prop bet.

A little bonus, you get credit for a sack when a QB scrambles out of bounds for a 1-yard loss or more.

I'd venture to guess it has worked for us 70% of the time
 

HomeRunBaker

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Nothing definitive like I had heard in the previous years but “Yellow” Gatorade got smashed on the offshores from +300 to -300 in the past 30 min. I was still able to get plus money on it just now.

I’ve got Rhianna dress info coming as soon as source gets his money down. This should be good but the performer can always change their mind

Edit: Also, Drake guest appearance prop. He’s at SB and since this was mentioned I’m guessing it’s a go. Will confirm shortly.
 

zak1013

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Love those halftime props but I’m not seeing them at any of the NY books. Maybe not permitted onshore? Anyone else see them?
 

HomeRunBaker

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NBA Totals down to 226.5 and 225 now. Played some 1H this morning on 3-hours sleep when they posted.

Edit: Celtics down to 225 now.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Dear Jayson,

I am writing to show my appreciation in your laziness, lack of urgency, or simply not giving a shit on that final 1H possession to secure my 1H Under after the 4 minute silliness leading up to placing the both of us in that uncomfortable and unnecessary position.

Best Regards,

Your Friend
HRB
 

HomeRunBaker

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Brutal ending to Celtics Under if you got in late and brutal for the push as well. I got some in good on the full game overnight 229.5 but pushed on the larger amount this morning at 227.

On a happier note hearing more word on “Yellow” Gatorade but short of an absolute as it’s from 3rd party source. I’ll update if I hear any more but still seeing +120 on my sites.

Edit: Guy who knows the head of production replied with two emojis. The recover thinks he knows how to interpret it but not 100%. The guy is obv busy right now but if definitive answer isn’t given he’s going to begin blowing his phone up. This Discord chat is Fuckin hysterical.

Edit2: Apparently this is another prop he’s trying to confirm. This is certainly adding excitement to my pre-SB wagering activities.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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People use their leverage to bust balls. This is by all accounts a real photo that was sent to our guy this afternoon. Am I the only one who interprets this as being blue?

CEF2B678-D96F-4BB8-87D8-BBCFF715B23F.jpeg
 

savage362

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Is that a purple tint or just dark from the lid being nearly shut? Purple did briefly lock on my offshore book about 20 minutes ago.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is that a purple tint or just dark from the lid being nearly shut? Purple did briefly lock on my offshore book about 20 minutes ago.
No Fuckin clue. This are the two most recent msg:

2 dude both told me diff colors. If they told me same I’d feel good. Diff sidelines though. Trying to get info, may be no Gatorade play today. Thumbs are blazing.

For fun sure. The last 2 haven’t been fun bets, gotten significant coin down so would rather not guess. Heard Blue chiefs orange eagles
 

HomeRunBaker

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Late but if anyone can get these they have been confirmed.

Drake on stage - NO (-150)
Jay Z on stage - NO (+120)


Rihanna

Dress: Red/Pink
10 sec recording of some song then
1st Song: BBHMM
Last Song: Diamonds

Sorry I couldn’t get it earlier but I can only pass on once I have access.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is that a purple tint or just dark from the lid being nearly shut? Purple did briefly lock on my offshore book about 20 minutes ago.
Yup and purple hits at +800!! Unfortunately for me I only had one offshore that carried all these and my Gatorade went down. At least I got my Chiefs future and the live bets at +3.5 at two different times. Oh and yes it was absolutely a penalty even though Fox never once showed the obvious angle.
 

BigSoxFan

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When’s the last time a SB didn’t have an INT? Bet both QBs to throw INT and just needed 1 to break even and nobody does. Pretty nuts.
 

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When’s the last time a SB didn’t have an INT? Bet both QBs to throw INT and just needed 1 to break even and nobody does. Pretty nuts.
1999/34...previously also the last season the regular season MVP won Super Bowl MVP. The only other game besides those two instances? Super Bowl 25.
 

HomeRunBaker

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When’s the last time a SB didn’t have an INT? Bet both QBs to throw INT and just needed 1 to break even and nobody does. Pretty nuts.
I don’t recall any really being close either. Hurts was accurate like he was pre-shoulder injury. Very impressive.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t recall any really being close either. Hurts was accurate like he was pre-shoulder injury. Very impressive.
Hurts threw one deep that 2 KC defenders had a shot on but the Philly WR did a nice job of breaking it up. The last throw of the game was a surefire INT to KC defenders but Hurts couldn’t even remotely get it there.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hurts threw one deep that 2 KC defenders had a shot on but the Philly WR did a nice job of breaking it up. The last throw of the game was a surefire INT to KC defenders but Hurts couldn’t even remotely get it there.
Was that last pass deflected or something? If not, it goes to show that Hurts shoulder still isn’t close to 100% or he reinsured it on that throw. Regardless, he was great tonight sans the scoop and score.
 

BigSoxFan

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Was that last pass deflected or something? If not, it goes to show that Hurts shoulder still isn’t close to 100% or he reinsured it on that throw. Regardless, he was great tonight sans the scoop and score.
Not deflected, I don’t think. Definitely a sign the shoulder was an issue although he uncorked some nice deep ones to Smith and AJ so hard to know for sure. Maybe he aggravated during course of the game. Hurts played a fantastic game but, sadly, that game will be largely forgotten by most. Super Bowl MVP caliber performance for sure though.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Anyone happen to grab any of those halftime props? Every one hit except for the Gatorade color which is the one there was the most skepticism about due to the vagueness of the leak (like for real, they thought purple looked like blue? FML)

We were discussing Vegas Legends in a Discord discussion when Gary Austin’s name came up and someone asked whatever happened to him. His story is legend itself and definitely one that couldn’t be replicated in today’s environment. Enjoy….

http://offshorebettor.com/index.php?threads/what-really-happened-w-gary-austins-lv-sportsbook.47211/
 

HomeRunBaker

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File this under, “Markets Move Fast”

My sites opened up Dunk Contest Odds this morning. I grabbed McClung at +400 on 3 apps, went to the gym then was going to post it here. Well yeah, he’s now the (rightful imo) favorite at +100.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Dabbled in the All-Star MVP market yesterday and even after the Giannis injury last night these numbers haven’t moved. With the top stats banged up, older, and/or are bigs who are against it in this type of game I see a bit of value. If you shop you will surely get better numbers but for simplicity here I’m using one books line. These are relatively small plays but I see ways to profit here…..total investment would be that of a small single game wager. Plus it’s a fun way to watch these shenanigans.

Giannis (+500), LeBron (+550), and Doncic (+650) are taking bulk of the action along with….Lillard (+600) and Tatum (+900), neither of whom figure to be going beyond 100% here. Many others can be safely eliminated such as Jokic, Bam, Sabonis, JJJ and DeRozan. There are some others who give me pause to completely discount like Siakam, Fox and Haliburton all at 40-1 and up.

The theme of this game is ballhandlers and scoring wings so Kyrie (+800) and Mitchell (+1200) in his return to Utah could go off. Kyrie’s price is too short so I passed on him. I’ll actually break it down by unit how I played this if anyone is interested. I did get a couple with better numbers than this but again only using book I have up right now…..

Morant (+1000) 1.35u
Mitchell (+1200) 1.25u
Shai-GA (+2000) .75u
Edwards (+3300) .5u

Fox (+4000) .125u
Siakam (+5000) .1u
Haliburton (+7500) .075u

I played some 3-pt stuff too I’ll write up later today. Market shouldn’t change.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Didn’t have time to put into detail everything. Played Hield to win again at +325 and Markkanen at +650 with the home court advantage for same amount. Sprinkle on Haliburton at +700 to get play back bc I’m intrigued by him. Played this even for like 30% of the All-Star MVP. My biggest is on McClung at the +400. I’ve seen as high as -200 now which I wouldn’t play in a 4-man field at that price. Anything can happen but I’m confident he’s going to bring the house down.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Noon time Saturday game falls 42 points below the total. Boy, who ever saw that coming lol! NBA Betting Season is BACK!!
 

88 MVP

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Any thoughts on the C’s game tonight? I want a little action to make it more interesting
I am no one’s idea of an expert, but given the first two games against Philly this season — especially the meeting a few weeks ago — and the Celtics now being fully healthy, I played one unit on the C’s at -1
 

HomeRunBaker

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Tweeted the other day how fresh legs following the break had increased defensive intensity that first day. With the exception of a couple Kings games the defenses are retreating quicker and switching more crisply.

6 of todays 7 games finished Under the number with none of the 6 even close except for 41 garbage time points in the final 5 minutes of the Pacers/Magic game…..which happened to be one of the two I played, along with the Raptors/Pistons, and had to sweat out two missed shots in the final 20 seconds when they shouldn’t even be shooting.

Something to watch for Sunday along with there being 4 days games. I like the Bulls/Wiz Under the best right now. Played overnight at 226.5 as I think this is high even with Beal and I’m guessing he’s only 33/67 to play.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Markets splitting up on the 4 days games early on this morning (which is very healthy imo) as totals in Suns/Bucks and Nets/Hawks move up….as Mavs/Lakers and Bulls/Wiz go lower. Love to see this type of market movement early in the morning (esp on my Bulls/Wiz).