Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

[HomeRunBaker]

In one of the most bizarre moves I’ve seen…..

Dallas, still mathematically in the playoff hunt, is sitting the majority of their rotation tonight, and will only be playing Doncic in the 1Q. Like, why play him at all? Weird AF.

No idea how to play this as I can’t imagine Doncic will be motivated to do anything. Pass I guess unless anyone wants to get creative on their own.

 

[Don Bradman]

In one of the most bizarre moves I’ve seen…..

Dallas, still mathematically in the playoff hunt, is sitting the majority of their rotation tonight, and will only be playing Doncic in the 1Q. Like, why play him at all? Weird AF.

No idea how to play this as I can’t imagine Doncic will be motivated to do anything. Pass I guess unless anyone wants to get creative on their own.

Pretty sure this has a lot to do with it:

 

[Red Averages]

Seems clear management wants Dallas to lose… why are they slight favorites?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Seems clear management wants Dallas to lose… why are they slight favorites?

Even the Dallas deep bench finds ways to lose 4Q leads.

The Slovania Night thing makes sense but I’m reading all over Twitter how the people in the arena weren’t aware that Doncic was only going to play the 1Q so everyone we confused. What has happened to this organization?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Have you guys been following this fiasco? Online book PointsBet Mispriced a line and wouldn’t honor it after it hit. They incorrectly priced the DD as +1600 when it was +300 or so everywhere else.

View: https://twitter.com/promoguyus/status/1644081392509132800?s=46&t=Kd4XngrNex3kkcS-Y-4t6A

Such bad business. There are a million books out there. People will find another one if they feel they are getting screwed. Just take your lumps and move on.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Such bad business. There are a million books out there. People will find another one if they feel they are getting screwed. Just take your lumps and move on.

PointsBet is notorious for these free rolls. I used to have a PPH site where there was a mispriced “error” every night. It was so obvious what they were doing but I never took the all risk/zero reward bait.

 

[BigSoxFan]

PointsBet is notorious for these free rolls. I used to have a PPH site where there was a mispriced “error” every night. It was so obvious what they were doing but I never took the all risk/zero reward bait.

Yeah, it’s garbage. Bet doesn’t hit, they take the money. It hits, hey, whoops…it’s void. Just incredibly deceptive business practice. The major sites like DK are pretty good with customer service, in my experience.

 

[zak1013]

As much as it pains me to do so, it feels like this is a weekend to stay away from the early start unders given all the wackiness with lineups, motivation, tanking etc. Anyone disagree?

 

[CaptainLaddie]

I like the Westbrook over for PAR. Currently at 29.5 at FD. If there's one thing we know about Russ, is that he will not give anything but 100% -- even if that 100% is a negative thing.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

As much as it pains me to do so, it feels like this is a weekend to stay away from the early start unders given all the wackiness with lineups, motivation, tanking etc. Anyone disagree?

Aside from standard getting ahead of lineup/injury news I won’t be touching anything in these final games. Tuesday it all begins!

 

[BigSoxFan]

DK 6th Man Odds:

Quickley -115
Brogdon -115

It’s officially a coin flip and you can now lock in profit if you got Brogdon at +250-350.

Well done, HRB!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

As much as it pains me to do so, it feels like this is a weekend to stay away from the early start unders given all the wackiness with lineups, motivation, tanking etc. Anyone disagree?

All 3 games yesterday flew over.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Some of these Unders are already beginning to get hit. As expected, they opened them way too high and will only be going one direction. Trying to get as much as I can overnights, which isn’t much with my access, and bet back if I don’t like the spot.

 

[Red Averages]

Some of these Unders are already beginning to get hit. As expected, they opened them way too high and will only be going one direction. Trying to get as much as I can overnights, which isn’t much with my access, and bet back if I don’t like the spot.

Any favorites, or just jamming all?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Any favorites, or just jamming all?

They actually popped up on all my sites and I maxed all except for the Bulls/Raptors which is the tightest number. Two of them were still hanging 231 on the Pels game, one had 227 on Heat. We may see a lot of movement in the next 12-18 hours.

As far as the first round series these tend to begin closer to reg season early on then once you get into the 4th/5th game when the defenses know what the offense is doing before they do we see a significant drop in scoring and pace. I always try to get one game ahead of these moves.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

DK 6th Man Odds:

Quickley -115
Brogdon -115

It’s officially a coin flip and you can now lock in profit if you got Brogdon at +250-350.

Well done, HRB!

Ty sir. I feel this number is what fair value looks like. I played back some on Quickley at and around this number. I haven’t done math on it but close to free rolling a relatively good number for this market on the whole.

Actually not quite I forgot most of mine from last month was at +150 or so I think…..was thinking I also had that at +300 but it’s only what I added this week that was.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Trae historically struggles against the Heat, both in last years series and the regular season games this year. I know several respected people on the Hawks here but I see the Heat with a lot of edges here in a single game format.

* Miami -4.5

 

[Leon Trotsky]

I have a bunch of DK bonus bets I need to use up by 4/13 - any thoughts on how best to deploy them these next couple days?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

IT’S HERE!!!! THE NBA PLAYOFFS!!

Found this today from respected pro Brad Powers that mirrors much of what I’ve been preaching for years. I’d actually like to see these numbers broker down by Series game number as the later a series goes the scoring has gone down significantly and I’m pretty certain quicker than the market adjusts.


* If you've blindly bet on every NBA playoff favorite the last 7 years you are 322-244-9 ATS (56.9%)!

* If you've blindly bet on every NBA playoff game to go UNDER the last 5 years you are 224-181-5 (55.3%).


As I've aged, obviously I don't value trends.

However, the continued de-emphasis of the NBA regular season may have created value on favorites/UNDERs.

Hypothesis:
1. Better teams have an extra gear come playoff time.
2. More intensity/effort shows on defense = lower scoring.


Do I expect these trends to continue winning at that rate moving forward? NO!

Will I personally bet more favorites than dogs and more UNDERs than OVERs this playoff season? YES is a big favorite.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Some of these Unders are already beginning to get hit. As expected, they opened them way too high and will only be going one direction. Trying to get as much as I can overnights, which isn’t much with my access, and bet back if I don’t like the spot.

Lots of Over money coming in this morning on the two games tonight as limits increase day of game. I understand the Laker/Wolves move and hedged out of some of my Under there with the Gobert suspension yesterday. I do not however agree with the Heat/Hawks move. Oh well, this is what creates markets!

 

[Red Averages]

I did a parlay of MIA + LAL moneylines for tonight. Comes out to -110, which seemed good to me based on Miami's ability to close + generate quality mismatches, with the Lakers having the same + the Minnesota injury/suspensions..

 

[Red Averages]

The pace of the Heat/Hawks game has changed a lot. More of a halfcourt set type of pace (slow) with contested shots. Bet accordingly…

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The pace of the Heat/Hawks game has changed a lot. More of a halfcourt set type of pace (slow) with contested shots. Bet accordingly…

2H total was 112 and in line with the full game so I didn’t add any but that was surely the side. Good post!!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Late Alert:

Playing some Wolves +8.5 tonight that number should be 5-5.5 so it’s an auto bet. Small though.

Don’t know how many were here or remember the bubble playoffs when I had tracked AD’s jump ball winning pct and took advantage of LeBron being the “first scorer” favorite despite being a distributor on 90%+ of initial possessions. I did not do the work this year but a favorable jump ball opportunity without Gobert in the game if you have this prop (I don’t). Fade LeBron, eliminate Vandy, and spread some on AD, Russell and Reeves assuming reasonable prices.

 

[zak1013]

Late Alert:

Playing some Wolves +8.5 tonight that number should be 5-5.5 so it’s an auto bet. Small though.

Don’t know how many were here or remember the bubble playoffs when I had tracked AD’s jump ball winning pct and took advantage of LeBron being the “first scorer” favorite despite being a distributor on 90%+ of initial possessions. I did not do the work this year but a favorable jump ball opportunity without Gobert in the game if you have this prop (I don’t). Fade LeBron, eliminate Vandy, and spread some on AD, Russell and Reeves assuming reasonable prices.

Boom! That was quite a first minute.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Boom! That was quite a first minute.

Anyone get this? I never even saw a number but guessing AD was +375 or so.

 

[zak1013]

I got him at +425 and Russell and Reaves at +1200.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I got him at +425 and Russell and Reaves at +1200.

Love it!!!

 

[Red Averages]

Nice hits on the unders, HRB. Those bailed out my Miami loses.

Interesting to see the games tonight are already 3 points lower on the O/U than where they opened. I've started hitting the Saturday/Sunday unders that are posted. 1pm, 3:30 pm, 6pm, 5:30pm... playoff games... on Saturday... then 2pm, 5pm on Sunday (with others to come when matchups are set).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Nice hits on the unders, HRB. Those bailed out my Miami loses.

Interesting to see the games tonight are already 3 points lower on the O/U than where they opened. I've started hitting the Saturday/Sunday unders that are posted. 1pm, 3:30 pm, 6pm, 5:30pm... playoff games... on Saturday... then 2pm, 5pm on Sunday (with others to come when matchups are set).

I was in PM’s with a poster here and saying how I forgot to post my 2H stuff which went well. The Heat…yeah, I dunno I sure didn’t expect them to play that uninspired of a 1H but maybe I should have with how they entered the playoffs.

I regret not doing the work or bringing up the first scorer prop until just prior to gametime but I didn’t need data to confirm the jump ball advantage that AD had with Gobert out or that LeBron defers on initial possessions 90%+ of the time since he has for his entire career. These have been gold in the past and juggling so many things, and not seeing the prop during the season, I simply forgot about it.

We do this every year in here so get used to it…..these totals have been a game of two late to adjust and it’s a cash cow in the playoffs plain and simple.

 

[Red Averages]

Yeah I remember these the last two years for sure. Already seeing the numbers come down marginally for this weekend (0.5-1 pts). I suspect another night of unders would get more capital flooding into these. We saw how popular NCAA unders got by the 4th day on March Madness....

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yeah I remember these the last two years for sure. Already seeing the numbers come down marginally for this weekend (0.5-1 pts). I suspect another night of unders would get more capital flooding into these. We saw how popular NCAA unders got by the 4th day on March Madness....

You have to attack the openers. The Pels/Thunder game is 226.5 and 231 was widely available for less than an hour at major books but I found two skins, same site, that kept 231 up for nearly another full hour.

The other thing I wanted to mention are the Games 5 & 6 that each feature a team who lost in G1&2 so we get to see if they really want to be there or wish to start their vacation early. Now the Wolves 4Q collapse was easy to see coming as I’ve watched those same deer (wolves?)-in-headlight looks from them on numerous occasions in the regular season…..kinda figured it would only get worse in a playoff setting especially once KAT got his 4th and then 5th. So I think they try and give effort next game but hard to trust them to close games as they have shown all year they aren’t good at it.

The Heat look to me to have given up. They didn’t rebound at all from their lackluster 2H of the season and if they couldn’t muster up intensity for the first play-in game I don’t have any reason to believe they will for the second.

In the two years of the NBA going to the Page-McIntyre format we have seen 4 teams play a second game with only one of the four advancing. Yeah, SSS obv however the early returns are in line with what I would expect. In this game you have to get in before the adjustments and this one has the potential to be really good over the next couple years. We shall see but I will be looking to fade both but especially Miami later this week.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

My buddy had 1H Under 104.5 omg VanVleet lol

 

[Red Averages]

I just took some NOP -6

 

[Red Averages]

Bulls open +5 / +170 moneyline

 

[zak1013]

DK had it at +5.5 / +190 for a hot second, both of which I jumped on.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Bulls open +5 / +170 moneyline

I tweeted out Bulls +5 and sprinkle on Bulls Adj line laying a couple at plus money when it comes out. Two teams had play-in games. One cared a lot, the other didn’t seem too. If I go down hard with the team who cared then I go down.

 

[zak1013]

I tweeted out Bulls +5 and sprinkle on Bulls Adj line laying a couple at plus money when it comes out. Two teams had play-in games. One cared a lot, the other didn’t seem too. If I go down hard with the team who cared then I go down.

And the total got posted at 208. Wow. That is a serious downward adjustment from where yesterday's and today's games were.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

And the total got posted at 208. Wow. That is a serious downward adjustment from where yesterday's and today's games were.

Yeah that’s getting near crazy territory but like tonight’s game I feel that’s a pretty fair number.

 

[Red Averages]

12 points in the final 12 seconds in the night game taking it from “this could end under” to “over by 11 points!”

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I’ll be flying up north tomorrow so wanted to post my early thoughts on the weekend if I don’t get around to posting (yeah, right lol).

Friday: Played Chicago and OKC, the two road dogs who showed fight in the first game. Basically fading the two teams that seem to have internal issues, lack of motivation, inability to close out games.

Saturday: Was telling a friend how this very well could be my largest volume day ever. Two MMA cards (Cage Warriors & UFC) with no shortage of big plays, 4 NBA playoff games, many live betting spots, a host of other sports action where I tail sharps, and I’ll be at a live casino with kiosks 7 feet from my seat. Uh, yeah…wish me positive variance please.

Best:
Celtics -9
Under 214.5 NY/Cleve
Knicks +6
Under 239 GS/Sac
Harden Under 20.5 Pts

If you have sites with ability to open a parlay or have a G2 price posted I see value in a Bos G1 ML/Bos G2 ML that will be priced around -185 whereas I have fair value closer to -230.

I don’t expect Grant to have much of a role in this series. If you can find player props I’d fire Under across the board on him. There is a real chance he gets a DNP-CD so check your books rules on whether the player must play in the game or only be active. Some have funky prop rules.

I’m waiting on playing NY to see what Randle’s status is. If he’s out I don’t want to be locked into 6 when I can get 9.5/10 which is what I’m hoping for with the Cavs dropping their guard.

 

[zak1013]

This is great HRB. Thanks as always. Will be a fun weekend!

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I’ve got nothing. I know a buddy with a 100-1 SD State futures ticket. They have taken advantage of mentally weaker teams down the stretch who were trying to protect leads and I’ve played them in 4 games so far in the tourney. I could see so many different outcomes here that I’ll just be sitting back waiting to attack someone going out to an early run to possibly play back other side or do same with the Total.

Just catching up on this thread, but I hope to God your buddy hedged the shit out of that SDSU bet, assuming the bet was big enough to have it make sense.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Just catching up on this thread, but I hope to God your buddy hedged the shit out of that SDSU bet, assuming the bet was big enough to have it make sense.

Yes, he did well but could have used an Aztec win.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

In addition to what I posted above I added more Celtics -9 but have stepped in bigly with Hawks TT Under 111.

I’m waiting to do same with Heat’s TT once it hits my sites.

 

[Red Averages]

In addition to what I posted above I added more Celtics -9 but have stepped in bigly with Hawks TT Under 111.

I’m waiting to do same with Heat’s TT once it hits my sites.

You can do a same game parlay of these two and get +170 if you think it’s under appreciating the correlation…

 

[Red Averages]

Play-in games unders hit 5 out of 6 games, the one game that didn’t had 12 points in the last 12 seconds. Most of these went under by over 10 points.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Really rethinking my thoughts on this Bucks/Heat series after seeing how badly the Bucks are limping into this series. Not that I think they will lose it but that a bunch of low-scoring grindfests will result in some shooting variance making this a not so easy series for them. I’d guess this variance will result in the Bucks with at least one demolition of the 112-74 variety but that is only one singular iteration. I’m trying to cap what a game in this series looks like when a Lowry, Herro or a Strus go into one of their deep unconscious I’m making a three every time a get a touch states….and how many they will have. Interesting digging so far.

 

[lovegtm]

Really rethinking my thoughts on this Bucks/Heat series after seeing how badly the Bucks are limping into this series. Not that I think they will lose it but that a bunch of low-scoring grindfests will result in some shooting variance making this a not so easy series for them. I’d guess this variance will result in the Bucks with at least one demolition of the 112-74 variety but that is only one singular iteration. I’m trying to cap what a game in this series looks like when a Lowry, Herro or a Strus go into one of their deep unconscious I’m making a three every time a get a touch states….and how many they will have. Interesting digging so far.

What is the Bucks' injury situation right now? I haven't been following closely enough.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What is the Bucks' injury situation right now? I haven't been following closely enough.

About 10 days ago everything began to unravel for the Bucks as far as health and a lot of questions are unanswered at this time. The Bucks are one of the most vague teams in the league at injury reporting and historically downplay ones that can be significant toward a players availability. So you have to really dig and read between the lines with them but like I said they have some real interesting stuff going on.

Middleton - Knee injuries have slowed him all season. He left game limping after a non-contact landing following a missed jumper. Since then, had an MRI and hasn’t played since.

Allen and Connaughton - Both left games with ankle injuries which is significant enough when you aren’t able to tighten the laces and continue. Could they have taped it up and returned if playoffs weren’t 10 days away? We don’t know. Could they have played the final few games of the season if this were November? We don’t know….hence the interesting stuff.

Giannis - Shut down for last 3 games seems a little extreme, no? Looking back at how stars have been ramped up for the playoffs prior to be given the final game off this isn’t normal usage. Digging deeper we find more. Not only did he not dress for the final two games but the game prior, at home in front of paying customers he participated in warmups…..cut it short and was deemed “out” with knee soreness. Again, how much was precautionary? Could he have played that night or the following two games if the playoffs weren’t 10 days away? We don’t know. Is he 100%? It’s fair to suspect he probably isn’t based on the unusual act of cutting a warmup short while sitting out that game along with the next two and something to watch early in G1 tomorrow.