Patriots vs. Colts-Divisional Game Analysis
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Early thoughts on this matchup. I'm watching the Colts-Rams game from earlier this season which the Rams won big. Indy's interior OL is a big weakness. McGlynn got abused all day and whiffed on multiple stunts. Thornton was running around like a, well, overmatched rookie. Some of this is due to the focus they put on bottling up Robert Quinn but I think A gap pressure might be something to consider. (Of course, that might allow Luck to escape the pocket and make plays with his legs if you can't get him down).
I bet it's the fumble play. I think the plays get coded by what a player's inital assignment is, and even though usually the QB doesn't block anybody, plays where they hand off are coded as "run block" (Luck had 358 "run block" plays this season). So I think it's gets put under "run block" even though his great play had nothing to do with blocking. Similarly, a WR catching a pass then fumbling gets marked under "pass" and a DB missing a tackle after a receiver caught a ball is marked under "coverage," as I understand it.DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:It's also worth noting that Luck had a -1.5 pass rating over the course of the entire season and a -0.2 this weekend. Almost all of his value comes from his legs. If the Pats can keep him in the pocket they should be pretty successful.
Although he does obviously have the ability to throw the ball with the best of them. Most evidently by the second half comeback (which still had 2 INTs, PFF chose right after the first pick to show his difference in grades).
In general, I don't think PFF grades are the best way to evaluate QBs. Every player gets graded -2 to +2 on each play. A QB might get a -1 for a misfire on a short slant, then a +1 for a great throw on a 25-yard post. It averages out as 0, but he moved the ball 25 yards with a first-down. The ultimate PFF grade might be a decent assessment of play-to-play consistency, but it underrates an inconsistent QB like Luck. At this point in his career, Luck will make a good number of mistakes, but he can overcome them with big plays, as we saw yesterday.
I don't think they should give much A gap pressure because of what you said. The ends have to stay disciplined and keep contain. I think they should widen their splits a bit on the DL to make it easier for them to stay outside.mascho said:
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Jer said:
This has come up before and it's what many of us think is a problem in their system (and lots of other statistical views, for that matter). SN can explain better, but you get or lose points based on what happens on plays you are near. Talib may well end up losing points for being put on tough assignments where the offense will often succeed, so in effect, he gets a net negative for being the best CB on the team.
Statistics in football for most positions have always been limited in this way. Did Deion Sanders suck because of his low INT totals that occurred because QBs wouldn't throw his way? Does a defender who draws double and triple teams suck because he has low sack/hit totals, even if his teammates make the play because he drew extra men?
The Chandler Jones discussion SN and phragle are having in that other thread speaks to this as well with respect to getting to the QB versus playing containment. I'm fine with PFF offering another view of the data, but football quality seems to be so, I dunno, "not linear," I guess is the best way I know how to put it.
Reverend said:
Talib's worst game was when he was given the task of trying to contain Gordon (-4.1). As you point out, every DB on our team would have struggled in that role, and some would have probably been much worse. Can you imagine Arrington on Gordon all game?
Talib's grades have been very low since returning from injury. His pass coverage was at +6.6 before his hip injury (and that was after stopping Julio, AJ Green, and Jimmy Graham). Since the injury he's graded out as -11.8. Though I think we can all agree he hasn't been the same since the injury I don't think he's been as bad as these numbers show.
Just wait until Branch intentionally fumbles a ball, and takes off his Colts jersey to reveal a Pats one underneath, WWE style.
Reverend said:
Yup. And not only do the PFF ratings fail to capture these situational aspects of football, they also often just don't pass the smell test as an aggregation strategy or even jibe with other statistics (which PFF usefully provides). For example, Talib and Dennard are 74th and 76th among qualifying CBs by PFF's coverage assessment. Yet they are 21st and 43rd by opponent's passer rating on throws against them and 21st and 22nd by target completion percentage. Either Talib and Dennard have really, really sucked on plays that they're not targeted - somehow their coverage has been worse when they're not targeted than when they have been targeted, which makes zero sense whatsoever - or something is seriously fucked up with PFF's coverage ratings.
After spending a fair amount of time on that site over the last year, I'm pretty convinced that PFF's player ratings are the least useful (and most opaque) information that they provide. The stuff on target outcomes as well their other statistics that don't involve adding up subjective assessments of 1s and 0s is much more useful.
Those aren't necessarily the only options - you could also have a bunch of plays where Talib or Dennard had crappy coverage but the QB made a bad throw or the WR dropped the ball. But I do think there's a disconnect. Also, PFF posts their ratings before the all-22 is released. They suggest they look at some plays afterwards with the all-22, but I don't get the impression it's everything, and I'm skeptical of judging DB play without the all-22.Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I agree 100%. Their stats on slot performance, coverage charting, QBs under pressure, etc. are indispensable but the ratings need to be taken with a pretty big grain of salt.Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
The Branch signing is peculiar. Why would they not grab a guy off a practice roster or someone whom was recently cut? That guy would at least be in football shape. I love Deion but he looked cooked last year. If the Pats did not bring him back after the Buffalo game in which Vereen and Amedola got hurt, how good could he be?
New England Patriots @Patriots1m
We've placed LB Brandon Spikes on season-ending injured reserve with a knee injury: http://bit.ly/1kmC5Ym
We've placed LB Brandon Spikes on season-ending injured reserve with a knee injury: http://bit.ly/1kmC5Ym
drleather2001 said:
Get consistent pressue up the middle with a three or four man rush and mix coverages.
YEAH I GAVE UP THE SECRET I'M THE MOTHERFUCKING BENEDICT ARNOLD OF PATRIOTS NATION.
We say run more--and I agree--but interestingly we are 3rd in the AFC in rushing. Only the Bills really ran more, but not better--
Spiller and Jackson had 15% more yards than Blount and Ridley on 25% more carries.And in four games Vereen or Bolden was the featured back.
But they really ramped it up with 76 rushes the last two games.
Spiller and Jackson had 15% more yards than Blount and Ridley on 25% more carries.And in four games Vereen or Bolden was the featured back.
But they really ramped it up with 76 rushes the last two games.
Losing Spikes sucks. Was this the absolute latest they could put him on the IR?
Typically the Pats like to keep things like this close their vests.
Typically the Pats like to keep things like this close their vests.
That's what I was thinking. The big run stuffers on this team have been Vince, Mayo and Spikes. Now they are all down.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I'm in the same boat. I say wear it, and find some time to rewatch highlights from the 2004 playoffs.Jnai said:
[youtube]http://youtube.com/watch?v=vmIStUHNE8o[/YouTube]
Weather seems like it'll be fine-ish. Low 40's chance of rain and not windy.
http://www.wunderground.com/sports/NFL/hometeam/New_England
atriots.html?st=1389474900
http://www.wunderground.com/sports/NFL/hometeam/New_England
atriots.html?st=1389474900I'm in the same boat. I say wear it, and find some time to rewatch highlights from the 2004 playoffs.
[youtube]http-~~-//youtube.com/watch?v=vmIStUHNE8o[/YouTube]
As I recall, Brady had a 104 temp and was hooked up to IVs heading into this game. Dude did ok.
[youtube]http-~~-//youtube.com/watch?v=vmIStUHNE8o[/YouTube]
As I recall, Brady had a 104 temp and was hooked up to IVs heading into this game. Dude did ok.
ifmanis5 said:Weather seems like it'll be fine-ish. Low 40's chance of rain and not windy.
http://www.wunderground.com/sports/NFL/hometeam/New_England
- As a fan that might be attending... yuck. Rain is worse than cold and snow.
- Losing Spikes would hurt more in the rain, since the Colts would likely run more often
- Gotta love how Blount would perform in another rain-bowl.