Patriots vs. Colts-Divisional Game Analysis

tims4wins · Jan 5, 2014

One of my big concerns about this game is Luck scrambling to keep drives alive. I think overall this is a pretty favorable matchup for the Pats though. I like the Pats' chances of having success running the ball and I think the secondary matches up fairly well with the Colts receivers / TEs.

Edit: the Pats also have to prevent the deep ball - Luck loves throwing long

triniSox · Jan 5, 2014

I have to imagine the main point of emphasis for the Patriots D would be to not get beat deep. Belichick is already compiling his montage of Luck throwing deep downfield making plays.

ragnarok725 · Jan 5, 2014

triniSox said:
I have to imagine the main point of emphasis for the Patriots D would be to not get beat deep. Belichick is already compiling his montage of Luck throwing deep downfield making plays.

Yeah the two big killers against Luck are his scrambling to keep drives going, and the deep ball. If they can keep contain in the pocket, and play soft coverage I like their chances of keeping things limited. That's a gameplan that enrages people most of the time ("where's the pressure?!?") but it's ultimately the best approach against Luck. Make him beat you with lots of good reads and shorter, accurate passes.

ragnarok725 · Jan 5, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
They get a huge break with the Colts' running attack. If they'd gotten Cincinnati, I'd have been extremely concerned. Overall, the Pats got the most favorable matchup. Colts have the better QB, but Bengals had better WRs, TEs, RBs, OL, and a much better defense.

The Pats have actually been pretty damn good at stopping the run the last 4 weeks. Since the Texans game when they were shredded, they've had significant + grades in run D from PFF against Cleveland, Miami, Baltimore, and then last week with Buffalo. Sealver Siliga has been a big, big part of that. Hightower, too, has really stepped up in the last few weeks I think. But overall, I'd agree that the strength (and health) of the D is still in the secondary at the moment.

alydar · Jan 5, 2014

Some questions in my mind, for the defense...

Given the general lack of a running game for the Colts, and that their better RB is more a pass catching threat than a runner anwyay, do the Patriots end up basically playing nickel as their base defense?

Obviously Talib and McCourty are on the field for basically ever snap, but what Colts personnel favors Gregory or Harmon?

When Dennard has been taken off the field, has it been solely because of injury, or because he has some weakness that creates a preference for Ryan or Arrington?

Super Nomario · Jan 5, 2014

alydar said:
Some questions in my mind, for the defense...

Given the general lack of a running game for the Colts, and that their better RB is more a pass catching threat than a runner anwyay, do the Patriots end up basically playing nickel as their base defense?

Obviously Talib and McCourty are on the field for basically ever snap, but what Colts personnel favors Gregory or Harmon?

When Dennard has been taken off the field, has it been solely because of injury, or because he has some weakness that creates a preference for Ryan or Arrington?

3 WR is their base anyway (FB Stanley Havili played just 3 snaps against KC) so I'd expect nickel basically the whole game.

mpx42 · Jan 5, 2014

I agree with the idea that the Patriots are likely to try to contain Luck and use coverage looks rather then pressure. They did the opposite in the 2012 game and blitzed frequently because it was a Bruce Arians system, who uses a ton of deep passes, but the Colts run a different offense now. We'll probably see the nickel defense on the field the entire game (if they're running a lot, that's a win for New England regardless.)

Don't let Hilton beat you. Take him away and make Luck go to Whalen and Fleener and Donald Brown. Talib struggles with some of the smaller, speedy WR's, I'd rather double Hilton and match Talib up on another player one-on-one.

Hoping to see a little more out of the Patriots passing game then we saw the past two weeks. That secondary can be exploited.

These are also the two least penalized teams in football, so don't expect a lot of flags.

m0ckduck · Jan 5, 2014

alydar said:
Given the general lack of a running game for the Colts,

It's unclear to me why there's this perception about the Colts, and yet Football Outsiders has them ranked 11th in rushing offense DVOA. I'm not disagreeing with the point— their running attack looked pretty lame vs. KC. Just wondering if anyone can explain the discrepancy. Maybe the DVOA includes Luck's scrambles? Maybe they had better results earlier in the season? Opposing defenses keying on the pass?

Dogman · Jan 5, 2014

m0ckduck said:
It's unclear to me why there's this perception about the Colts, and yet Football Outsiders has them ranked 11th in rushing offense DVOA. I'm not disagreeing with the point— their running attack looked pretty lame vs. KC. Just wondering if anyone can explain the discrepancy. Maybe the DVOA includes Luck's scrambles? Maybe they had better results earlier in the season? Opposing defenses keying on the pass?

The KC game is a very poor indicator in this example.

mpx42 · Jan 5, 2014

The Colts spent two thirds of the season trying to be a power running football team, and when they realized it wasn't working, switched to a no huddle offense built around the pass and Andrew Luck. The numbers for the full season aren't going to reflect that.

Carlos Cowart · Jan 5, 2014

Indy is 26th in the league in run defense. As long as the RBs can hang on to the ball I don't see any way the Pats don't win by double digits.

Zososoxfan · Jan 5, 2014

IMHO, the Pats dodged a bullet avoiding Cinci (best overall team of the 3 possible opponents) and the Chiefs with Charles. Even if, as Ragna points out, the Pats have been better against the run recently, the Pats secondary is the team's strength (Ragna also mentions this) and avoiding a good running team was the priority. The Colts are still a solid team, but if the Pats play up to their ability, they should [at the very least have a chance to] win.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Jan 5, 2014

Luck and Co. went off after Flowers went down. I think a healthy Talib, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington and McCourty should be able to contain that passing game.

Turn this into a running football game. Force them to beat you with Brown and Richardson, and run the football down their throats with Blount and Ridley.

alydar · Jan 5, 2014

m0ckduck said:
It's unclear to me why there's this perception about the Colts, and yet Football Outsiders has them ranked 11th in rushing offense DVOA. I'm not disagreeing with the point— their running attack looked pretty lame vs. KC. Just wondering if anyone can explain the discrepancy. Maybe the DVOA includes Luck's scrambles? Maybe they had better results earlier in the season? Opposing defenses keying on the pass?

I wonder the same thing. Brown has a very good 5.3 yards per carry (102 attempts) while Richardson averaged 2.9 on 157 attempts. Luck was even better, at 6 ypc on 63 attempts. This sounds like something a color commentator would say, but the Colts run the ball well without having a good rushing attack. Perhaps put more intelligently, when the Colts signal they are going to run, they don't gain many yards, but when the pass is likely, they can pick up yards. This might have something to do with playing from behind, where teams are generally okay giving up yards on the ground. That is different, of course, from having a 5 point lead with 6 minutes to go and everyone in the stadium knowing you are going to run, but you get a first down anyway.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Jan 5, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
Patriots vs. Colts 8:15 Saturday (CBS)

Some early and off the cuff thoughts

-Double team TY Hilton with Dennard and DMC. Hilton mainly played out of the slot against KC so I think Talib would be better used on Fleener.

-Pick on Toler early. See if he's healthy. Vontae Davis didn't look good yesterday either.

-Keep running the football. They should be able to pass the ball with success(44 points to Alex Smith and no Charles? Really, Indy?) but play action would be much more successful with a good running attack early(especially with Landry at safety who loves to come up to help in the running game.)

I'm interested to see if Indy scraps the running game altogether and spreads the Patriots out to leave it in Luck's hands.

I was unaware of this at the time but Landry suffered a concussion late in the game, so he could be out next week.

A secondary missing Landry and Toler, and a hobbled Davis should be easy to pick apart.

Though this goes against my last post (that was just sarcasm) a balanced attack should be the offensive gameplan.

koufax32 · Jan 5, 2014

And the trash talking has already begun with my wife's family who insist Indy will win because of pluck, playing fair, and not being grumpy in media sessions.

In news that doesn't make fans want to club baby seals, the weather looks like it will be pretty standard would th a small chance of precipitation with lower 30's temps.

Adrian's Dome · Jan 5, 2014

Is Brown still piss-poor in pass protection? He's a dangerous back, but you could potentially run the defensive reads on him being on the field alone if that's still the case.

RogueSquad22 · Jan 5, 2014

Blount will be key piece to this game. If they can get him going early and set up the play action I think they're in good shape. If he comes out and can't get much done then it'll be an uphill battle. As far as defense goes I feel like the Patriots don't do well with qb's who can scramble well. Less blitzing (not that ever is a big part of the pats game) and double Hilton. Can't let Luck run for first downs on 3 and 12s...

bball831 · Jan 5, 2014

I wonder how much Richardson will play. He had one carry (and fumbled). No receptions or targets. Hopefully they give the guy 8-10 touches.

RogueSquad22 · Jan 5, 2014

bball831 said:
I wonder how much Richardson will play. He had one carry (and fumbled). No receptions or targets. Hopefully they give the guy 8-10 touches.

Thankfully they don't have many options in that area so they very well may have to.

Stitch01 · Jan 5, 2014

Pretty good matchup for the Pats. The bad news is Luck is the best QB left by far of the possible NE opponents this round. As others have mentioned, he can extend drives with his arm and his legs and is good enough to win a game on his own. Stating the obvious, but that's the downside.

Upside is Pats match up well everywhere else. Colts don't run enough to take advantage of the Pats weaknesses at DL, don't have a really dangerous TE or running back in the passing game. It seems like if you can stop Hilton on offense and Mathis on defense you are very far along at beating the Colts and the Pats should have the personnel and coaching staff to handle that. Moving the ball shouldn't be a huge issue, this is the worst defense the Pats have played in at least six weeks.

I think the Pats coaching staff has a big game planning advantage.

Luck is really dangerous, and you never know in one game, but feel pretty good here.

ivanvamp · Jan 5, 2014

When we get to this point in the season, I worry about every opponent. Of course I think the Pats are as dangerous as anyone, but I can think of a bunch of reasons why Indy will give New England all they can handle. If I was a betting man (which I'm not), I'd take the Patriots, obviously, but Indianapolis is very capable of winning this game.

RogueSquad22 · Jan 5, 2014

Pats have always done best when people doubt them. So my only hope is that talking heads slowly start counting them out as the playoffs move on..

wiffleballhero · Jan 5, 2014

I'd be interested in reading some comments from people with more detailed knowledge of Indy's season. When you look at their game scores they seem all over the map (beating Sea, SF and Denver but giving up 42 and losing to Cinn. and 40 to Arizona!). What is the story here? Even the weak defense against KC yesterday seems non-informative given the mere 7 points they gave up against them a few weeks ago. Also, yesterday was their only game in the 40s and they only got above 30 three times?

From what I can tell, they seem like they do not really shut down even marginally good offenses but it often does not matter because they can win some shootouts?

The only thing I see that is revealing is this strength of schedule information that sure makes them look soft with a .43 opponent winning percentage.
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/12/30/5256434/2014-nfl-strength-of-schedule-an-early-look-at-all-32-teams

amarshal2 · Jan 5, 2014

Not-so-subtle dig at the Patriots' receivers by ESPN.com's Colts reporter:

"Quick: Can you name a receiver on either team not named T.Y. Hilton?"

Hilton: 82/1,083/5
Edelman: 105/1056/6

No respect!

Give me Hilton

RogueSquad22 · Jan 5, 2014

amarshal2 said:
Give me Hilton

why?

triniSox · Jan 5, 2014

wiffleballhero said:
I'd be interested in reading some comments from people with more detailed knowledge of Indy's season. When you look at their game scores they seem all over the map (beating Sea, SF and Denver but giving up 42 and losing to Cinn. and 40 to Arizona!). What is the story here? Even the weak defense against KC yesterday seems non-informative given the mere 7 points they gave up against them a few weeks ago. Also, yesterday was their only game in the 40s and they only got above 30 three times?

From what I can tell, they seem like they do not really shut down even marginally good offenses but it often does not matter because they can win some shootouts?

The only thing I see that is revealing is this strength of schedule information that sure makes them look soft with a .43 opponent winning percentage.
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/12/30/5256434/2014-nfl-strength-of-schedule-an-early-look-at-all-32-teams

My brother is a Colts fan so I've seen them a bit this season.

My analysis is that their defense is below average with a secondary that can occasionally play well (vs Denver for example). Their pass rush is largely dependent on Mathis who obviously is still a fantastic player. They've tried to get stouter up the middle but they are a defense that can still be run on (and over) and a secondary with weak spots that can be exploited.

Their offense lacks playmakers outside of Hilton (DHB has been a disappointment, Fleener drops far too many passes) and they can't run the ball consistently even though they're trying to build a run-first offense. Luck is a terrific deep passer, has great scrambling ability, can escape tackles and climb the pocket brilliantly. He does still however make mistakes at times - missing high over the middle, losing track of a dropping linebacker, failing to recognize safety/corner jumping a route - which explains some of his interceptions. Until a few weeks ago, the Colt's intermediate and short passing game had been very bad since Wayne got hurt. Since Whalen came back, Luck has really clicked with his Stanford roommate and the slot game should now be a concern as well for the Pats defense. Much like the Pats offense this season - there have been periods of great inconsistency which resulted in falling behind by large margins in some games.

I think we'll see a lot of nickel and dime packages from the Pats D vs the Colts with McCourty playing deep in centerfield. I think BB dares the Colts to run the ball or consistently execute in the short passing game to move up the field.

amarshal2 · Jan 5, 2014

why?

It's close but I think TY is the better and more versatile receiver. Edelman's good at getting open and being in the right place which is very valuable to Brady. However he's not good at staying on his feet to get YAC. He doesn't really make difficult catches. He's not a serious deep threat. TY is better at those aspects. I'd love to see what Brady could do with him.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Jan 5, 2014

amarshal2 said:
It's close but I think TY is the better and more versatile receiver. Edelman's good at getting open and being in the right place which is very valuable to Brady. However he's not good at staying on his feet to get YAC. He doesn't really make difficult catches. He's not a serious deep threat. TY is better at those aspects. I'd love to see what Brady could do with him.

Slot and outside receiver are two very different positions so they do have different skill sets, but Edelman is great on his feet. It's what makes him one of the best punt returners.

YAC
Edelman 406 yards
Hilton 304 yards

amarshal2 · Jan 5, 2014

DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
Slot and outside receiver are two very different positions so they do have different skill sets, but Edelman is great on his feet. It's what makes him one of the best punt returners.

YAC
Edelman 406 yards
Hilton 304 yards

True about the roles.

Apologies, I wasn't clear. Yeah, Edelman is great on his feet. I meant he has problems staying on his feet after down field catches.

I'd be shocked if much of Edelmans YAC wasn't from screens or other passes with a lot of space. He goes to the ground so much downfield. Welker wasn't faster or more elusive but his avg yards/catch were always much higher because he caught the ball on his feet and made the first guy miss.

singaporesoxfan · Jan 6, 2014

I'd agree that the strength (and health) of the D is still in the secondary at the moment.

When you consider it wasn't long ago that the Patriots' current best receiver had to be used as a cornerback, this is amazing to read.

dynomite · Jan 6, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
-Double team TY Hilton with Dennard and DMC. Hilton mainly played out of the slot against KC so I think Talib would be better used on Fleener.

1) Good preview.

2) Can we stop with this? Fleener is a solid TE who caught 50 passes this year. Hilton is the Colts most dangerous weapon and is coming off a 200 yard, 2 TD performance this weekend. Much as he did against the Ravens WRs, Talib will shadow Hilton with safety help over the top.

Belichick put Talib on Jimmy Graham because Graham was the Saints best receiver. He's not a TE specialist now.

dcmissle · Jan 6, 2014

RogueSquad22 said:
Pats have always done best when people doubt them. So my only hope is that talking heads slowly start counting them out as the playoffs move on..

I don't think we'll see much of that this week. What we'll likely see are people openly rooting for a Luck/Manning matchup the week after. Some of the extremists also will paint this week as good v evil.

bakahump · Jan 6, 2014

Stating the obvious but Indy was the last Dome team still in the AFC playoffs. (I suppose you could argue that SD is basically a "Dome team" playing in SoCal weather at home all the time but regardless).

Always good to have a Dome team coming to the Razor in January, even if its looking like a relatively mild day. I would have more concern that KC or Cinnci would have handled the elements better then the Colts. All that said the Colts handled the adverse conditions in KC ok.

Edit- Cinnci to KC....whoops.

DJnVa · Jan 6, 2014

bakahump said:
All that said the Colts handled the adverse conditions in Cinnci ok.

Colts didn't play Cincy.

Well, not since early December.

RogueSquad22 · Jan 6, 2014

If you told me Jamaal Charles was going to be good to go for next week, and then asked me if I rather have the Chiefs or Colts I would take the Colts a million times over. Andrew Luck in a season or two will be much better than Alex Smith, but as of right now they are pretty on par with each other. So having said that I would MUCH rather take Andrew Luck and that running game of their's over Alex Smith and arguably the best running back this season going (who can also catch passes better than most wide receivers).
Colts are a tough team but i think the match up is a favorable one.

Kenny F'ing Powers · Jan 6, 2014

amarshal2 said:
True about the roles.

Apologies, I wasn't clear. Yeah, Edelman is great on his feet. I meant he has problems staying on his feet after down field catches.

I'd be shocked if much of Edelmans YAC wasn't from screens or other passes with a lot of space. He goes to the ground so much downfield. Welker wasn't faster or more elusive but his avg yards/catch were always much higher because he caught the ball on his feet and made the first guy miss.

Hilton is a true boom or bust player. I prefer my receivers with some consistency, but that's just me.

TY Hilton Yards per game in first 2 seasons

100+ Yard games: 10

155
140
130
124
121
113
111
102
100
100

50-99 yard games: 4

78
78
52
50

0-49 yard games: 17

46
45
44
43
38
37
35
34
33
31
27
22
20
15
13
7
0

The kid obviously has talent, but he seems to be taken out of games pretty consistently. It's also only his second year, so he's get plenty of time to get better.

As a comparison, here's Edelman's 2013 (first year as a full time starter):

100+ yard games: 4

139
118
110
101

50-99 yard games: 6

79
78
77
65
64
57

0-49 yard games: 6

44
44
35
27
11
7

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Jan 6, 2014

This is going to be a tougher game than I originally thought. Even if they take Hilton out, Luck can still throw to Brazzil, Whalen and Rogers. Rogers is extremely talented and needs to be accounted for, and I don't know if the Pats have anyone that can cover him. I'm not sure we have anyone that matches up well with Donald Brown either, especially receiving out of the backfield.

That being said if their D doesn't get pressure the Pats are going to drop 40+ on them... by halftime. I'm very excited to see how this game plays out.

H78 · Jan 6, 2014

I'm having a hard time thinking about how this game will turn out. I think the Pats win in a total beatdown or they barely squeak it out (which speaks toward the whole season, I suppose).

I think it'll either be 38-13 or 23-20.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Jan 6, 2014

For those without PFF here were the Colts grades this year (I removed players on IR or off the team).

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Jan 6, 2014

And from their game Saturday.

Reverend · Jan 6, 2014

Half of Luck's value from yesterday's game came from run blocking?

I feel comfortable saying that I don't understand their system.

Edit: Thanks for posting those, by the way.

loshjott · Jan 6, 2014

dcmissle said:
I don't think we'll see much of that this week. What we'll likely see are people openly rooting for a Luck/Manning matchup the week after. Some of the extremists also will paint this week as good v evil.

Very few people outside of Indy or the Manning household will be rooting for Luck vs. Manning rather than Brady vs. Manning. Every regular season match up is hyped to a ridiculous extent and Brady vs. Manning in the AFCCG Part III with each guy 1-1 will explode the NFL hype machine.

bakahump · Jan 6, 2014

DrewDawg said:
Colts didn't play Cincy.

Well, not since early December.

brohirrum · Jan 6, 2014

DaughtersofDougMirabelli, could you post the patriots season summaries?

I like the patriots in this game if our secondary is healthy we can match up well with the Colts.

TE generally worries me with Hightower however from the colts games i have watched Fleener can easily be knocked off his route. This is one thing Hightower has done well in coverage, he is very physical with TE's. I agree with the general consensus that we need to keep Luck inside the pocket. I think the panthers game *when Newton got outside and hurt us* was a good learning experience for this D.

From an offensive standpoint I am happy the patriots will not face a dominant inside defensive lineman. I feel TB struggles most when pressure comes from inside the pocket. Our bigger RB's will have a nice game.

Does anyone have any updates on Landry or DHB who both got hurt for the colts during the game? *not that those 2 players will swing it -knocking on wood ferociously -

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Jan 6, 2014

Reverend said:
Half of Luck's value from yesterday's game came from run blocking?

I feel comfortable saying that I don't understand their system.

Edit: Thanks for posting those, by the way.

Yeah no idea. I don't remember Luck dropping any key blocks (or blocking at all for that matter). They ran the read option once, but Luck kept the ball (so that shouldn't matter) and then there was the strange fumble on the goal line which he recovered and ran in. But again neither of these were blocking plays but they were the only 'different' plays that I could think of that may have accounted for something else other than your typical Pass/Rush.

It's also worth noting that Luck had a -1.5 pass rating over the course of the entire season and a -0.2 this weekend. Almost all of his value comes from his legs. If the Pats can keep him in the pocket they should be pretty successful.

Although he does obviously have the ability to throw the ball with the best of them. Most evidently by the second half comeback (which still had 2 INTs, PFF chose right after the first pick to show his difference in grades).

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Jan 6, 2014

brohirrum said:
DaughtersofDougMirabelli, could you post the patriots season summaries?

I left the Pats IR/cut players in since that took a little bit to edit and most of use know the usual suspects.

Stitch01 · Jan 6, 2014

Wonder if that Luck "run block" value is the recovered fumble for a TD.

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