Patriots vs. Colts-Divisional Game Analysis

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 17, 2006
3,016
Bill Barnwell's Pats-Colts matchup is up on Grantland, though this seemed more of a breakdown of the Pats and what they need to do right to win.  
 
It All Comes Down To …
Turnovers. This time, for real. The Colts and Patriots each thrive on winning the turnover battle, and these are two quarterbacks to whom you don't want to hand a short field. If the Patriots blow out the Colts, people will say it's because Indy was emotionally spent from its win last week and didn't have anything left in the tank. If the Colts win, people will say it's because they were riding their wave of emotion from last week and just had too much momentum for the Patriots to handle. You try figuring out Indy's true emotional state before the game starts. I'm going to stick with the turnover thing.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,102
The Colts and Patriots each thrive on winning the turnover battle, and these are two quarterbacks to whom you don't want to hand a short field
 
 
Everyone thrives on winning the turnover battle!!!!!!!
 
And I don't think you want to hand it to any QB on a short field.
 

Corsi

isn't shy about blowing his wad early
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 3, 2010
12,955
Boston, MA
DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
Bill Barnwell's Pats-Colts matchup is up on Grantland, though this seemed more of a breakdown of the Pats and what they need to do right to win.  
 
 
Brilliant.  You mean to tell me the #1 statistic most correlated with winning is going to be the deciding factor in who wins this game?  Hogwash.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,425
Hingham, MA
Corsi said:
 
Brilliant.  You mean to tell me the #1 statistic most correlated with winning is going to be the deciding factor in who wins this game?  Hogwash.
 
The best part is Barnwell already used turnovers during his preview of last weekends games. He is becoming like Easterbrook or even Shank. Same shit, different day.
 

Jer

New Member
Jul 17, 2005
278
Boston, MA
Forget turnovers and short fields... I think the key stats to watch are hanging Brady high-fives and Brady/Blount celebrations. They win all the games where these occur.
 



 

simplyeric

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 14, 2006
14,037
Richmond, VA
Jer said:
Forget turnovers and short fields... I think the key stats to watch are hanging Brady high-fives and Brady/Blount celebrations. They win all the games where these occur.
 
 

 
 
 
Just as a thing...what's up with the hanging high fives?  Is that like a team joke or something just to be goofy?
 
 
 
Or is Tom losing the support of his team...!??  (I kid)
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,425
Hingham, MA
Man I remember having the hope that Chung would become the next Rodney Harrison. Maybe this belongs in the "things that make you feel old" thread
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
59,306
San Andreas Fault
tims4wins said:
True, but A) he is our asshole, and B) seemed like being that way has gotten him to where he is
As well as his father being the I wasn't much but I'm going to make my son what I wasn't by drilling him year round in three different sports.
 

Zososoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2009
9,234
South of North
Jer said:
Forget turnovers and short fields... I think the key stats to watch are hanging Brady high-fives and Brady/Blount celebrations. They win all the games where these occur.
 



 
Can we get a poll for these?? 2nd one is definitely my favorite. If this really is part of a goof on Brady, I enjoy it IMMENSELY. Is it Saturday yet?
 
To add just a bit of substance, I'm growing increasingly confident about this matchup. In the playoffs, you always have to be on your guard, and all it really takes for expectations to go out the window is execution. That being said...
 
Pats Pass v. Indy - slight adv. Pats. Tom Brady and a not great secondary (13th in pass yards allowed).
 
Pats Run v. Indy - BIG adv. Pats. Colts are 26th in rush yards allowed and Pats are 9th in rushing yards and have looked great doing so the past couple of weeks.
 
Indy Pass v. Pats - push. Luck is a good QB who will get better with time, but still makes mistakes (let's hope for a repeat of last week). The Pats rank 18th against the pass, but have not had a fully healthy secondary for much of the year.
 
Indy run v. Pats - Slight advantage Colts. Colts are not a great rushing team (20th in yards), but the Pats are 30th and just lost Spikes.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
tims4wins said:
Man I remember having the hope that Chung would become the next Rodney Harrison. Maybe this belongs in the "things that make you feel old" thread
Or a new "Things that make you feel stupid" thread.  (I would post my prediction that the iPhone would fail -- what does Apple know about phones!?!?!?)
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
86spike said:
And the whole 'two different teams' thing seems dumb to me.  Even if he was still a Colt, he would probably be one of the few guys left on the team who was there for the first SB, so that is just as much 'two different teams' as the current situation.
 
Yup. When Brady and the Pats win another Super Bowl in a few weeks, there will be no Patriots from the 01-03-04 teams on the active roster. It is two different sets of teammates. All together.
 
M

MentalDisabldLst

Guest
thehitcat said:
I'd let the Sanchize have it on a short field.
 
Mock him all you like, but if there's no grass on the field, Sanchez will still play ball.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
FTFY
soxfan121 said:
 
Yup. When Brady and the Pats win another Super Bowl in a few weeks, there will be no other Patriots from the 01-03-04 teams on the active roster. It is two different sets of teammates. All together.
If the Pat's win another SB in a few weeks with NO Patriots from the 01-03-04 teams on the active roster -- THAT would be a Belichickian Miracle and would forever end the "WHo is more important: Brady or Belichick" debate.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,102
tims4wins said:
True, but A) he is our asshole, and B) seemed like being that way has gotten him to where he is
 
No doubt.
 
My favorite part was when he punched a teammate and said "I might have overreacted, but I like to do things the right way".
 
That would be NOT punching your teammate.
 

86spike

Currently enjoying "Arli$$"
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2002
25,082
Procrasti Nation
simplyeric said:
Just as a thing...what's up with the hanging high fives?  Is that like a team joke or something just to be goofy?
 
 
 
Or is Tom losing the support of his team...!??  (I kid)
Nobody wants to touch his hand because it smells like the Center's jock.
 

Jer

New Member
Jul 17, 2005
278
Boston, MA
Brady was on the 01-03-04 teams. So if they win the SB without a member from those teams, then it'd mean Mallett was starting. Therefore all credit would go to BB.
 

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
22,104
A Scud Away from Hell
( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
That video is great.  I think it really illustrates how ridiculously hard it is to play defensive back in the NFL. 
 
Especially if your name is Dunta Robinson (-7.7 PFF grade in pass coverage).
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,102
Caller on NFL Radio this morning...I can sum up his call this way:
 
--Brady was like 10-0 in playoffs but he had Seymour, Harrison, Law, Bruschi and all those guys, but he's only 3-5 in his last 8.
--Why does Manning now need to win a second Super Bowl? And who cares that the defense won the first for him, it's a team game.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,024
Mansfield MA
ShaneTrot said:
The Pats lost to the Bengals, Jets, Panthers, and Dolphins. Sure those teams got good QB play in those games but all those teams have excellent front sevens on defense. Its hard for me to believe that this Colts defense is going to stifle the NE running and passing games. Not with a banged up secondary and Mathis being the only excellent player in the Colt front seven. Hell, they just gave up 44 points to the Chiefs without Charles.
The Panthers is probably the best model for a Colts win. The Pats moved the ball great against Carolina but had some red zone struggles, and Cam just destroyed the Pats' D by converting third downs with his legs. The final score was just 24-20, but each team only had 6-7 drives, so the offenses dominated the defenses in the game.
 

mpx42

New Member
Apr 23, 2010
2,684
Seattle, WA
OUT:
 
Dobson
 
QUESTIONABLE:
 
Dennard
Thompkins
 
PROBABLE
 
Amendola
Arrington
Brady
Fletcher
Gregory
Mankins
McCourty
Svitek
Vereen
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
44,139
Here
What the hell happened to Kenbrell? Brady threw one high and he landed on his side. All I can think of is a bruise or a break, but we're over a month now, so it would have to be a pretty bad bruise to keep him limited still.
 

lambeau

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 7, 2010
1,175
Connecticut
I don't think Thompkins being "probable" means anything--so's Brady with his "shoulder."

He must have had a bad hip pointer with a hematoma to be out a month--but he played 34 snaps against Buffalo.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

RIP Dernell
SoSH Member
Mar 24, 2008
7,269
lambeau said:
I don't think Thompkins being "probable" means anything--so's Brady with his "shoulder."

He must have had a bad hip pointer with a hematoma to be out a month--but he played 34 snaps against Buffalo.
What do you think about him being "questionable"?
 

mulluysavage

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
714
Reads threads backwards
mpx42 said:
OUT:
 
Dobson
 
QUESTIONABLE:
 
Dennard
Thompkins
 
PROBABLE
 
Amendola
Arrington
Brady
Fletcher
Gregory
Mankins
McCourty
Svitek
Vereen
So... The only remaining WR who plays on the outside and has studied the Pats playbook for more than a week has an approximately 50% chance of playing? Grim. I think Dunn May be more than a practice dummy... Go routes are fun!
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,480
deep inside Guido territory
mulluysavage said:
So... The only remaining WR who plays on the outside and has studied the Pats playbook for more than a week has an approximately 50% chance of playing? Grim. I think Dunn May be more than a practice dummy... Go routes are fun!
He's going to play.  So is Dennard.  Don't worry.
 

mulluysavage

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
714
Reads threads backwards
"...on the replay, you can see that Slater runs a simple seam route, and the safeties haven't accounted for this special teamer's speed - Bethea takes a bad angle - and Matthew Slater takes it to the house for his first career touchdown!"

Yeah, I'm worried a little, and I also like secret weapons. Shhhh.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,102
Rainy and windy. Let's keep our normal offensive guys out there.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
59,306
San Andreas Fault
Dogman2 said:
 
 
Why would BB keep an eye/quarter eye/glimpse on a game that is meaningless to the Patriots?
Maybe just get a different idea of a play to call in rainy weather, or something. Not that he hasn't been there hundreds of times, but he obviously looks or reads about so much football all the time, even stuff before he was born, who knows what he may consider a source of an idea. 
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Moderator
SoSH Member
Mar 19, 2004
15,201
Missoula, MT
Papelbon's Poutine said:
Do you honestly think he's going to alter the game plan three hours before kickoff based on watching half of the Seahawks game? I think he's got more to draw off than that.
 
No, no.  Al was clear that BB could call a play, similar to one called in the Seattle/NO game, that could work in the Pats/Colts game because it worked in a completely different game with completely different teams and completely different game plans.  
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
59,306
San Andreas Fault
Dogman2 said:
 
No, no.  Al was clear that BB could call a play, similar to one called in the Seattle/NO game, that could work in the Pats/Colts game because it worked in a completely different game with completely different teams and completely different game plans.  
The guy's a football genius. How do you know what he's doing when you can't see him on the side of the field?
 

Bierman9

New Member
Jul 19, 2005
108
Nashua NH
For some reason, I can't reply to the game thread, but I HATE the penalty on extra points enforced on the kickoff - kicking from the 40 instead of the 35 -BFD...   Should take 5 yards off of where the receiving team gets the ball after a regular kickoff...   anyhow.... thnx for listening...   Love the great football insight here....  Thnx guys...
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
Bierman9 said:
For some reason, I can't reply to the game thread, but I HATE the penalty on extra points enforced on the kickoff - kicking from the 40 instead of the 35 -BFD...   Should take 5 yards off of where the receiving team gets the ball after a regular kickoff...   anyhow.... thnx for listening...   Love the great football insight here....  Thnx guys...
It certainly is of less value now that most kickoffs result in touchbacks. They can't really do what you said though, what if the team runs it back? Ball on the 5? 
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,790
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
It certainly is of less value now that most kickoffs result in touchbacks. They can't really do what you said though, what if the team runs it back? Ball on the 5?


Yes. At least for personal fouls. You are dumb enough to commit a 15 yarder? Your team can get no better than the 15 yard line.