NBA trade season

Kliq

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Everyone thought the Lakers in 2004 were going to run away with the NBA Championship. Detroit had a good core but no true superstar. They still traded for Rasheed Wallace. Then in the Finals Karl Malone hurt his knee, Kobe and Shaq exploded and suddenly the Pistons had an unlikely ring.

That is an unlikely scenario to be repeated, but the point is the Pistons still did everything they could to improve their team that season, a couple of fortuitous breaks and bam, they won. Even if it is unlikely that is going to happen you still have to try.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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With an iffy Love and a tired Lebron I'd give them a better shot than "likely ECF loss" with Butler. I'd rather they throw that package or more at PG but who knows what his availability really is.
 

bowiac

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Everyone thought the Lakers in 2004 were going to run away with the NBA Championship. Detroit had a good core but no true superstar. They still traded for Rasheed Wallace. Then in the Finals Karl Malone hurt his knee, Kobe and Shaq exploded and suddenly the Pistons had an unlikely ring.
FWIW, that was not an especially good Lakers team. We were just not nearly as sophisticated in evaluating teams back then. Their SRS (strength of schedule adjusted margin of victory) was 4.35, which was good for 7th in the league, and worse than the Pistons.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'm not banking on Lebron being meaningfully tired or the Dubs getting hurt anymore than others would bank on Hayward signing here.
 

southshoresoxfan

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I dont think Heyward is a lock by any means but the odds of a title this year w Butler or George are so slim id rather keep the order of operations alive for a sign Heyward then execute trade strategy.

Unless you can pull one over on CHI or IND (unlikely) then i dont see it happening.
 

E5 Yaz

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I'm not banking on Lebron being meaningfully tired or the Dubs getting hurt anymore than others would bank on Hayward signing here.
Exactly, which is why when you have a realistic shot at making the finals, you should take it ... instead of thinking the magic ticket is right around the corner
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I just really like this group and would love to see them have a legitimate chance of making a run to the Finals. I'm weary of the ping pong balls and would rather have Danny cash them in for a known commodity that gives them a chance at the Finals.

I don't even really care if they win the championship or not. I would rather have a Celtics team that I can root for knowing they have even a puncher's chance than root for the ping pong balls. If Danny keeps the picks and they don't work out it will have been a waste.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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Exactly, which is why when you have a realistic shot at making the finals, you should take it ... instead of thinking the magic ticket is right around the corner
Lebron not bringing his A-game is a magic ticket. Meanwhile, the C's have zero answer for Tristan Thompson and have themselves been very banged up this season. Bradley at 100% is almost mandatory to have any chance in the late rounds given the potential matchups.

I would love Butler, but two top 3 picks for him is bad business.
 

Kliq

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FWIW, that was not an especially good Lakers team. We were just not nearly as sophisticated in evaluating teams back then. Their SRS (strength of schedule adjusted margin of victory) was 4.35, which was good for 7th in the league, and worse than the Pistons.
In 13 years we might not look at the Warriors as that great of a team because we have a different way of looking at them. If the Lakers has beaten the Pistons like everyone expected them to do we wouldn't be looking at their SRS.
 

BigSoxFan

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I just really like this group and would love to see them have a legitimate chance of making a run to the Finals. I'm weary of the ping pong balls.
And it's not just the ping pong balls. What if a guy like Fultz is only a good player and nothing more? A lot has to go the Celtics' way for the draft building title contender process to work. I don't mind taking some shortcuts if the price is right. OKC is a perfect example - they hit the jackpot 4 separate times in the draft and still came up short.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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And it's not just the ping pong balls. What if a guy like Fultz is only a good player and nothing more? A lot has to go the Celtics' way for the draft building title contender process to work. I don't mind taking some shortcuts if the price is right. OKC is a perfect example - they hit the jackpot 4 separate times in the draft and still came up short.
Exactly. I wouldn't give up both picks but I wouldn't be upset if Danny traded one for Butler. I'd be upset if he gave up Smart more than anything else. He's an untouchable as far as I'm concerned.

I'd trade a pick/Brown/AB/filler for PG but I think he's a top 15 player in the league. I wouldn't give up both a pick and Brown for Butler.
 

Devizier

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FWIW, that was not an especially good Lakers team. We were just not nearly as sophisticated in evaluating teams back then. Their SRS (strength of schedule adjusted margin of victory) was 4.35, which was good for 7th in the league, and worse than the Pistons.
They were also coasting a ton during the regular season, something we saw a lot of with the Kobe/Shaq lakers (99-00 excepted).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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We are really looking at a philosophical divide when evaluating potential trades. Either you come down on the side of believing the Celtics will draft well and the players will develop out in a reasonable time-frame. Or you believe that realized talent trumps prospective talent and that if you get a chance to improve incrementally for a reasonable price, you do it, regardless of whether you can contend with the best teams or not.
In retrospect, the reports the Cs must have gotten on Boogie must have been unequivocally and uniquely bad. I mean given that he's a top 10-ish player now, and adding in how cheaply SAC traded him for, if there's a 1 in 10 chance that he shapes up, don't you have to take that risk? Not often you can get a talent like him even if you are drafting in the top 3 two years in a row.
 

PedroKsBambino

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In retrospect, the reports the Cs must have gotten on Boogie must have been unequivocally and uniquely bad. I mean given that he's a top 10-ish player now, and adding in how cheaply SAC traded him for, if there's a 1 in 10 chance that he shapes up, don't you have to take that risk? Not often you can get a talent like him even if you are drafting in the top 3 two years in a row.
Agreed. So, I too conclude not only that it was uniformly bad reports, but also most likely Stevens, IT, or both made clear acquiring Cousins would impact whether he wants to stay. It had to be a big hammer out there given how good a fit Cousins was in theory AND Ainge's past interest in him.

Time will tell if he made the right call.
 

the moops

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Exactly. I wouldn't give up both picks but I wouldn't be upset if Danny traded one for Butler. I'd be upset if he gave up Smart more than anything else. He's an untouchable as far as I'm concerned.

I'd trade a pick/Brown/AB/filler for PG but I think he's a top 15 player in the league. I wouldn't give up both a pick and Brown for Butler.
Butler is also a top 15 player in the league
 

BigSoxFan

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In retrospect, the reports the Cs must have gotten on Boogie must have been unequivocally and uniquely bad. I mean given that he's a top 10-ish player now, and adding in how cheaply SAC traded him for, if there's a 1 in 10 chance that he shapes up, don't you have to take that risk? Not often you can get a talent like him even if you are drafting in the top 3 two years in a row.
I'm sure the Felger's of the world were disappointed that they didn't get a chance to goad him into some emotional interviews. But I agree that the feedback on Cousins must have been pretty awful, like Artest or Rodman bad for Danny to stay away.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Exactly. I wouldn't give up both picks but I wouldn't be upset if Danny traded one for Butler. I'd be upset if he gave up Smart more than anything else. He's an untouchable as far as I'm concerned.

I'd trade a pick/Brown/AB/filler for PG but I think he's a top 15 player in the league. I wouldn't give up both a pick and Brown for Butler.
I love Smart as much as anyone else but the odds of Smart being a top 15 player in this league are almost 0. As such, the odds of Jackson, Fultz, Porter, or Ayton being a top 15 player - while admittedly no sure thing - is exponentially higher than that. If I'm looking for a top 15 player and I'm faced with a choice between Smart or a Brooklyn pick, I'd have to give up Smart every time with what I know now.
 

rhopkins2323

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Ok, so you take the long approach and watch IT/Horford lose effectiveness right as the new young core is (hopefully) ready to take over and you're in the same exact position as you are now. And that's assuming lotto luck and making the right picks. At some point you have to play a hand and I'm perfectly fine cashing in some of the chips if the price for George/Butler is reasonable. Obviously, if the Bulls/Pacers get greedy, then you walk away and try again in the summer/next year, which is a luxury this team has and is why Ainge won't panic.
Yes, that's what I believe is best approach. I want the best of both worlds. Win now and build for the future.

You have today's core with IT and Horford and you look to free agency to improve the team. While difficult, it's the approach to win now and build for future.

In free agency you have 2 guys that can help. Blake Griffin, who has some warts, but he helps rebounding and Cs will be more athletic. And it keeps Horford at the 5. You have Gordon Hayward who fits the Cs. Another shooter, can create his own, and gets to the line all while defending his position pretty well.

You could look at Millsap, but paying him for his mid 30s years isn't ideal.

While this approach isn't perfect or guaranteed, it gives you a chance to win now and find that next super star needed for the future. Smart has proved he belongs, you can tell Jaylen will be a tough matchup. And you have 2 more drafts picking in top 3-6. That's pretty legit.

I get where a lot of you are coming from though. Having a real shot at the Finals is what it's about. And the more I think about it, the Cavs aren't invincible. They are worse than last year. My problem is that it's a small window with this group and I would hate to look back in 2022 and the Cs traded a pick of a guy that turned into a franchise player. Not to mention the best franchises typically build through the draft.....in any sport.
 

CreedBratton

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Yes, that's what I believe is best approach. I want the best of both worlds. Win now and build for the future.

You have today's core with IT and Horford and you look to free agency to improve the team. While difficult, it's the approach to win now and build for future.

In free agency you have 2 guys that can help. Blake Griffin, who has some warts, but he helps rebounding and Cs will be more athletic. And it keeps Horford at the 5. You have Gordon Hayward who fits the Cs. Another shooter, can create his own, and gets to the line all while defending his position pretty well.

You could look at Millsap, but paying him for his mid 30s years isn't ideal.

While this approach isn't perfect or guaranteed, it gives you a chance to win now and find that next super star needed for the future. Smart has proved he belongs, you can tell Jaylen will be a tough matchup. And you have 2 more drafts picking in top 3-6. That's pretty legit.

I get where a lot of you are coming from though. Having a real shot at the Finals is what it's about. And the more I think about it, the Cavs aren't invincible. They are worse than last year. My problem is that it's a small window with this group and I would hate to look back in 2022 and the Cs traded a pick of a guy that turned into a franchise player. Not to mention the best franchises typically build through the draft.....in any sport.
To your last paragraph, that's the thing tho hindsight 20/20. Yeah fultz could be all time amazing, he could also be derrick Williams or Anthony Bennett you don't know. That's why I always take the sure thing and have no problem giving up this years pick for PG13.

Also, when has the lottery ever worked out for us? Sadly, I think the 4th overall pick is a given.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I love Smart as much as anyone else but the odds of Smart being a top 15 player in this league are almost 0. As such, the odds of Jackson, Fultz, Porter, or Ayton being a top 15 player - while admittedly no sure thing - is exponentially higher than that. If I'm looking for a top 15 player and I'm faced with a choice between Smart or a Brooklyn pick, I'd have to give up Smart every time with what I know now.
Here is the thing with Smart. If you just looked at his stat-sheet (even advanced metrics), he looks mediocre at best except for maybe steals. However anyone who watches him play sees that the guy wreaks havoc on other teams, makes a bunch of hustle plays and does all the cliched little things that helps a team to win.

I certainly wouldn't let him be a hold up for, say, Paul George but if you ask me if I had to choose between Smart and the 2018 Brooklyn pick, I am leaning toward Marcus. I believe in statistics but also believe that, in basketball in particular, we have a way to go in terms of evaluating how a player like Smart impacts the game. Of all the current Celtics, I can easily see him above all as an integral part of a championship team some day. Maybe I am just being irrational but I love that kid's game.
 

Ed Hillel

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In retrospect, the reports the Cs must have gotten on Boogie must have been unequivocally and uniquely bad. I mean given that he's a top 10-ish player now, and adding in how cheaply SAC traded him for, if there's a 1 in 10 chance that he shapes up, don't you have to take that risk? Not often you can get a talent like him even if you are drafting in the top 3 two years in a row.
Sac apparently wanted Brown and the Nets 2017 pick for Cousins because their owner thinks Hield is the second coming. I wouldn't make that trade for a year and a half of Cousins.
 

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I love Smart as much as anyone else but the odds of Smart being a top 15 player in this league are almost 0. As such, the odds of Jackson, Fultz, Porter, or Ayton being a top 15 player - while admittedly no sure thing - is exponentially higher than that. If I'm looking for a top 15 player and I'm faced with a choice between Smart or a Brooklyn pick, I'd have to give up Smart every time with what I know now.
I agree he is never going to be a top 15 player in the league but I think he is by far the most valuable of the Crowder/Smart/AB trio.

As far as Butler being a top 15 player, he's close but I'm not sure. I rate PG13 higher because he is a significantly better shooter.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Butler is also a top 15 player in the league
Most people would take these guys over Butler:


Giannis Antetokounmpo
Klay Thompson
Kyrie Irving
Chris Paul
DeMarcus Cousins
Paul George
James Harden
Anthony Davis
Kawhi Leonard
Kevin Durant
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
LeBron James

If you agree with this, then you basically have to take Butler over all of these guys:

Blake Griffin
DeMar DeRozan
Kyle Lowry
LaMarcus Aldridge
Karl-Anthony Towns
John Wall
Draymond Green

Not even mentioning guys like Porzingis or Embiid or Jokic or Booker or Buddy Hield.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I certainly wouldn't let him be a hold up for, say, Paul George but if you ask me if I had to choose between Smart and the 2018 Brooklyn pick, I am leaning toward Marcus. I believe in statistics but also believe that, in basketball in particular, we have a way to go in terms of evaluating how a player like Smart impacts the game. Of all the current Celtics, I can easily see him above all as an integral part of a championship team some day. Maybe I am just being irrational but I love that kid's game.
I'm a Smart fan, and someone who has long noted the challenges with measurement on basketball stats around here. And I'd rather have the Nets 2018 pick for sure. I do think Smart adds a ton that doesn't get measured yet. but it still doesn't make him an all-NBA level impact guy...which is what this team needs, and what that pick can become.

I think he's no better than the third-best guy on a championship team and likely fourth or deeper. I will say there are games (he had a couple last year in the playoffs) where he could be among the top couple guys, but has never shown that for long stretches. Look at him like Rodman---who maybe was a distant third best guy on some title times, but far closer to fourth/fifth than first or second. I hope his shot develops magically and he proves me wrong, but I don't see evidence that's at all likely to happen.
 

moondog80

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Here is the thing with Smart. If you just looked at his stat-sheet (even advanced metrics), he looks mediocre at best except for maybe steals. However anyone who watches him play sees that the guy wreaks havoc on other teams, makes a bunch of hustle plays and does all the cliched little things that helps a team to win.

I certainly wouldn't let him be a hold up for, say, Paul George but if you ask me if I had to choose between Smart and the 2018 Brooklyn pick, I am leaning toward Marcus. I believe in statistics but also believe that, in basketball in particular, we have a way to go in terms of evaluating how a player like Smart impacts the game. Of all the current Celtics, I can easily see him above all as an integral part of a championship team some day. Maybe I am just being irrational but I love that kid's game.
Keep in mind, Smart can be an RFA after next year. His game might not be so easy to like at over 20 mil a year.
 

CreedBratton

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It's an emoji of Derrick Favors performing oral copulation on a weiner, but with two shamrocks in place of the gonads.
Thank you and wow that's weird.

Per above I'd take Wall, draymond, towns, jokic and porzingas over butler for me personally. Depending on fit.
 

Ed Hillel

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He just followed it up with "pumped to get my Shamrocks off!" F5 til midnight, take 3.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It's an emoji of Derrick Favors performing oral copulation on a weiner, but with two shamrocks in place of the gonads.
Sorry, my interpretation was bad. Yours is spot on.

As a side note, I love the trade deadline and Twitter. I feel like a mini-soxhop311.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Here is the thing with Smart. If you just looked at his stat-sheet (even advanced metrics), he looks mediocre at best except for maybe steals. However anyone who watches him play sees that the guy wreaks havoc on other teams, makes a bunch of hustle plays and does all the cliched little things that helps a team to win.

I certainly wouldn't let him be a hold up for, say, Paul George but if you ask me if I had to choose between Smart and the 2018 Brooklyn pick, I am leaning toward Marcus. I believe in statistics but also believe that, in basketball in particular, we have a way to go in terms of evaluating how a player like Smart impacts the game. Of all the current Celtics, I can easily see him above all as an integral part of a championship team some day. Maybe I am just being irrational but I love that kid's game.
I love his game and impact on the team too, I really do, but with 182 games under his belt he's at 36.3% from the floor in his career. 48.2 TS%. Next year's draft is looking even better at the top 3 than this one. Of course, we can keep both and I can continue to fantasize about my dream 2021 line-up of Fultz, Smart, Brown, Michael Porter Jr. and Zizic.
 
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rhopkins2323

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To your last paragraph, that's the thing tho hindsight 20/20. Yeah fultz could be all time amazing, he could also be derrick Williams or Anthony Bennett you don't know. That's why I always take the sure thing and have no problem giving up this years pick for PG13.

Also, when has the lottery ever worked out for us? Sadly, I think the 4th overall pick is a given.
And that's why this is all on Danny and you have to trust his judgment on it. But we can have fun discussing our opinions.

If he sees Fultz or Jackson as a future all-star, you keep the pick. Same with 2018 draft....even though a little harder to project. If DA felt these drafts had little upside, and could get Paul George, it's a no brained to make the move

Don't be scared of the ping pong balls lol
 

moondog80

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Favors' 12 mil next year is a bargain, but wouldn't it prevent them from signing Hayward? What's the rule for trading a guy a second time -- they have to wait a certain amount of time, right?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I love his game and impact on the team too, I really do, but with under his belt he's at 36.3% from the floor in his career. 48.2 TS%. Next year's draft is looking even better at the top 3 than this one. Of course, we can keep both and I can continue to fantasize about my dream 2021 line-up of Fultz, Smart, Brown, Michael Porter Jr. and Zizic.
What about IT4, Brown, Jackson, Porter, and Zizac with Smart on a reasonable contract and Yabu and Nader coming off the bench? :)
 

the moops

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Most people would take these guys over Butler:


Giannis Antetokounmpo
Klay Thompson
Kyrie Irving
Chris Paul
DeMarcus Cousins
Paul George
James Harden
Anthony Davis
Kawhi Leonard
Kevin Durant
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
LeBron James

If you agree with this, then you basically have to take Butler over all of these guys:

Blake Griffin
DeMar DeRozan
Kyle Lowry
LaMarcus Aldridge
Karl-Anthony Towns
John Wall
Draymond Green

Not even mentioning guys like Porzingis or Embiid or Jokic or Booker or Buddy Hield.
What players you would take over Butler is a totally different question than whether Butler is a top 15 player in the league. Players like Embiid, Porzingis, Towns, and the like are not better ball players than Butler (currently). And of course there are going to be debates over what constitutes the top 15. For me, the only clear players that are better tha him are

Lebron, Curry, Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Kawhi, Davis, and Paul.

I think Butler belongs in the next tier with George, Cousins, Green, and a few others from your list.
 

Cellar-Door

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Most people would take these guys over Butler:


Giannis Antetokounmpo
Klay Thompson
Kyrie Irving
Chris Paul
DeMarcus Cousins
Paul George
James Harden
Anthony Davis
Kawhi Leonard
Kevin Durant
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
LeBron James

If you agree with this, then you basically have to take Butler over all of these guys:

Blake Griffin
DeMar DeRozan
Kyle Lowry
LaMarcus Aldridge
Karl-Anthony Towns
John Wall
Draymond Green

Not even mentioning guys like Porzingis or Embiid or Jokic or Booker or Buddy Hield.
If we mean right now
I'd take him over Kyrie/Giannis (NOW)/DeRozan/Lowry/Aldridge/Towns and all the young guys.
That puts him at the edge of top 15.

Depending how you value his defense also, I could see taking him over a few other guys there (Wall, Griffin, Boogie, maybe even George). He's a really good player on offense and he's an elite defender.

I'd be more likely to say he's a top 20 player than top 15, but it's arguable.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'd much rather have him than Amir. Massive upgrade IMO. But, he takes you out of the running for Hayward.
I don't know that he's that big an upgrade, similar defensive profiles, he's the better rebounder, but not by as much as you'd like, and he's a far far inferior offensive player. He's not all that good and he kills the cap space next year.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I highly doubt the intern running the CSN Celtics account would know anything and is just stirring up the shit. This is fun though. There are going to be some serious blue balls if there isn't a big move after all this Twitter watching.
 

E5 Yaz

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By noon Wednesday, the favors rumor will be in the past and we will have moved onto two or three other names to toss about for an hour or so before those fade away.