NBA trade season

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Jul 21, 2005
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Oh NEXT years draft is stacked? Hear that every single year and its exhausting.

Which is it...can we not predict busts like Ingram for 5-6 years or can we predict 17 YOs making for a good draft?
I also get so tired of the "next years draft!"

Remember the last time we did that? Last year. And here we are this year and it is this year and we are degrading this draft and screaming that next year is the stacked one.

There are not many freakish athletes in the world built to play basketball at an All-Star NBA level. Each next crop of players always looks better than the known quantity because it's all hope + projection, none of the messiness of actually watching them play.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Multiple tweets from Stein and Woj indicate that the Bulls are open for business on a lot of their players. I wonder if this means they are choosing to strip down and rebuild and if that includes trading Butler.
Have to assume it opens the door. Certainly doesn't make sense to take away from your team if you intend to keep Butler. Or could just be posturing.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
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Oh NEXT years draft is stacked? Hear that every single year and its exhausting.

Which is it...can we not predict busts like Ingram for 5-6 years or can we predict 17 YOs making for a good draft?
I have a different take on draft evaluation. Going back to the draft odds chart (link here - http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/17/freelance-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/ - not posting it because it's already been posted a few times elsewhere), you will see that a team that has pick #6 or below has less than 10% of drafting an All-NBA team player, and once a team is out of the lottery, team's chance of picking an All-NBA player is almost 0%.

To me, that means teams do overall a really good job of evaluating talent, particularly difference makers. (Plus conventional wisdom says that the NBA is the easiest league to evaluate star players, even from a young age.) That's obviously not to say that every young player ID'd as a potential star is going to be a star, but that does mean that there aren't a lot of guys - particularly those in the US system - who are going to come out of nowhere and become all-NBA.

And eventually, we'll be on European prospects like we are on US prospects.

I think the last few drafts have been evaluated pretty well in terms of who might become all-NBA. Sure Ingram might be a bust and there is probably a late bloomer who emerges from outside the lottery to become a star, but for the majority of the picks, people were probably pretty accurate in gauging their range.

As for next year, people are saying that if Fultz came out next year, he'd be lucky to be the 4th pick in the draft - that Ayton (7'0", 243), Porter (6'10", 214), and Doncic (6'8", 185) are clearly ahead of him - and that there may be others who could jump up into that conversation. One thing for sure - there is a ton more size at the top next year than this year.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Jul 7, 2007
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I have a different take on draft evaluation. Going back to the draft odds chart (link here - http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/17/freelance-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/ - not posting it because it's already been posted a few times elsewhere), you will see that a team that has pick #6 or below has less than 10% of drafting an All-NBA team player, and once a team is out of the lottery, team's chance of picking an All-NBA player is almost 0%.

To me, that means teams do overall a really good job of evaluating talent, particularly difference makers. (Plus conventional wisdom says that the NBA is the easiest league to evaluate star players, even from a young age.) That's obviously not to say that every young player ID'd as a potential star is going to be a star, but that does mean that there aren't a lot of guys - particularly those in the US system - who are going to come out of nowhere and become all-NBA.

And eventually, we'll be on European prospects like we are on US prospects.

I think the last few drafts have been evaluated pretty well in terms of who might become all-NBA. Sure Ingram might be a bust and there is probably a late bloomer who emerges from outside the lottery to become a star, but for the majority of the picks, people were probably pretty accurate in gauging their range.

As for next year, people are saying that if Fultz came out next year, he'd be lucky to be the 4th pick in the draft - that Ayton (7'0", 243), Porter (6'10", 214), and Doncic (6'8", 185) are clearly ahead of him - and that there may be others who could jump up into that conversation. One thing for sure - there is a ton more size at the top next year than this year.
I'd just take issue with this last part because the draft analysts I've read typically frame it as Ayton/Porter and sometimes Doncic are all potentially Fultz-level types. Overall I agree that consensus #1 types like Fultz (and unlike, say, Derrick Williams and Anthony Bennett who had plenty of doubters) are pretty safe bets to hit. I'd still be ok trading this year's Brooklyn pick in the right deal, but top-1 protection would be nice.
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Jul 21, 2005
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Raleigh, NC
As for next year, people are saying that if Fultz came out next year, he'd be lucky to be the 4th pick in the draft - that Ayton (7'0", 243), Porter (6'10", 214), and Doncic (6'8", 185) are clearly ahead of him - and that there may be others who could jump up into that conversation. One thing for sure - there is a ton more size at the top next year than this year.
This time last year Fultz was ranked behind Giles (consensus #1), Jackson, Tatum, Ball, Bam Adebayo & Fox.
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Jul 21, 2005
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I'd just take issue with this last part because the draft analysts I've read typically frame it as Ayton/Porter and sometimes Doncic are all potentially Fultz-level types. Overall I agree that consensus #1 types like Fultz (and unlike, say, Derrick Williams and Anthony Bennett who had plenty of doubters) are pretty safe bets to hit. I'd still be ok trading this year's Brooklyn pick in the right deal, but top-1 protection would be nice.
Fultz was not a Fultz-level type until he actually played college basketball. You cannot go off the high school rankings and just slot them in, you have to see them play, how they adjust, how they develop.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Each next crop of players always looks better than the known quantity because it's all hope + projection, none of the messiness of actually watching them play.
That's actually not true. Drafts vary from year to year.

Just one tiny example. The Cavs hit the #1 pick three out of four years and ended up with Irving, Wiggins, and Bennett. While people can argue about Wiggins, they weren't going to get anything out of the 2013 draft because that draft didn't have any top players.

If the picks were a year earlier, they would have ended up with John Wall and Anthony Davis.

If the picks were a year later, they would have ended up with Davis, Wiggins, and Towns.

And if that had happened between 1982-86, they could have had Worthy, Hakeem, and Ewing.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
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Jul 31, 2002
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What the hell happened to Giles anyway? Everyone seems to think he'll still come out but wow.
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Jul 21, 2005
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Raleigh, NC
That's actually not true. Drafts vary from year to year.

Just one tiny example. The Cavs hit the #1 pick three out of four years and ended up with Irving, Wiggins, and Bennett. While people can argue about Wiggins, they weren't going to get anything out of the 2013 draft because that draft didn't have any top players.

If the picks were a year earlier, they would have ended up with John Wall and Anthony Davis.

If the picks were a year later, they would have ended up with Davis, Wiggins, and Towns.

And if that had happened between 1982-86, they could have had Worthy, Hakeem, and Ewing.
I am not arguing that some drafts are not better than others.

I am arguing that, today, there is no way to know whether 2018 is a better draft than 2017. Some years when you have Lebron James you can go ahead and make that call at this point but the 2018 draft class is not like that.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I am not arguing that some drafts are not better than others.

I am arguing that, today, there is no way to know whether 2018 is a better draft than 2017. Some years when you have Lebron James you can go ahead and make that call at this point but the 2018 draft class is not like that.
Well according to Dean on basketball, there is a LBJ type in next year's draft. :)

I'm not arguing whether the 2017 draft is better (not even sure what that means) than the 2018 draft. But from my eyes, it looks like the top of the 2018 draft class has a higher ceiling than the top of the 2017 draft class, and given where the Cs are, if we are trading picks (I'm one of those who would rather hold on to both) I'd rather trade the 2017 pick - even knowing it's virtually certain to be top 4 - for a chance to get a shot at one of the top players of the 2018 class.

Because at this point in time next year, we may very well be saying that there is a LBJ type in next year's draft. We just don't know who exactly that is yet.
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Jul 21, 2005
17,585
Raleigh, NC
Well according to Dean on basketball, there is a LBJ type in next year's draft. :)

I'm not arguing whether the 2017 draft is better (not even sure what that means) than the 2018 draft. But from my eyes, it looks like the top of the 2018 draft class has a higher ceiling than the top of the 2017 draft class, and given where the Cs are, I'd rather trade the 2017 pick - even knowing it's virtually certain to be top 4 - for a chance to get a shot at one of the top players of the 2018 class.

Because at this point in time next year, we may very well be saying that there is a LBJ type in next year's draft. We just don't know who exactly that is yet.
I think the ceiling looks higher the farther away from it we are.
 

the moops

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lolol

So apparently the Knicks want an additional piece in any Rubio for Rose trade. If fucking Thibs even thinks about that he is even more in love witih D Rose than I thought
 

bowiac

I've been living a lie.
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I think the ceiling looks higher the farther away from it we are.
This is where I'm at. A year before the draft, Wiggins was the next LeBron. As we actually got to see him play, evaluations kept falling, and he was mostly viewed as a below average #1 pick (and only went #1 because Embiid got hurt).
 

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
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deep inside Guido territory
This is where I'm at. A year before the draft, Wiggins was the next LeBron. As we actually got to see him play, evaluations kept falling, and he was mostly viewed as a below average #1 pick (and only went #1 because Embiid got hurt).
Ever since the media began hyping high school kids and the different scouting websites kept popping up this has happened. The best players are usually hyped up to be better than they actually are. People fall in love with extremely athletic wing players and are always looking for the next big thing. How many players were the next Jordan?
 

JakeRae

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Ever since the media began hyping high school kids and the different scouting websites kept popping up this has happened. The best players are usually hyped up to be better than they actually are. People fall in love with extremely athletic wing players and are always looking for the next big thing. How many players were the next Jordan?
For isolated comments, I'm sure a lot. For a sustained consensus, LeBron.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Fultz was not a Fultz-level type until he actually played college basketball. You cannot go off the high school rankings and just slot them in, you have to see them play, how they adjust, how they develop.
I don't disagree with any of this, more information is better and even with college experience scouts are going to differ in how they see things. Fultz generally a preseason top 5 guy, now he's the consensus #1, aside from a rare Lonzo holdout.
 

cheech13

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Jan 5, 2006
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This is where I'm at. A year before the draft, Wiggins was the next LeBron. As we actually got to see him play, evaluations kept falling, and he was mostly viewed as a below average #1 pick (and only went #1 because Embiid got hurt).
This is dead on. A year out people were saying Lebron was a transcendent talent and the next great thing... and he was. Then I heard similar things about Greg Oden, OJ Mayo, Shabazz Muhammad, Harrison Barnes, Jahlil Okafor, Andrew Wiggins, and Harry Giles... and they weren't.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This is dead on. A year out people were saying Lebron was a transcendent talent and the next great thing... and he was. Then I heard similar things about Greg Oden, OJ Mayo, Shabazz Muhammad, Harrison Barnes, Jahlil Okafor, Andrew Wiggins, and Harry Giles... and they weren't.
Its one thing to beast against high school and college defenders who are kids playing in a system and aren't allowed to get away with fouling.

Its another to play against NBA men who can foul and include guys whose sole purpose for earning a paycheck in the league is beating the ever living fuck out of anyone (by outmuscling them) on the opposing team.
 

cheech13

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Final trade is Noel to the Mavs for Bogut, Anderson & a 1st round pick. I guess that's one way to get the Center they've been after for God knows how long.

You'd have to think Bogut gets bought out or re-routed somewhere else, right?
 

nighthob

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This is dead on. A year out people were saying Lebron was a transcendent talent and the next great thing... and he was. Then I heard similar things about Greg Oden, OJ Mayo, Shabazz Muhammad, Harrison Barnes, Jahlil Okafor, Andrew Wiggins, and Harry Giles... and they weren't.
You heard similar things about the 6'4" Mayo when he was 14 and demolishing kids his age. That talk was done by the time he turned 16 and the 6'4" Mayo was playing kids his own size and athleticism, just like Lance Stephenson (who also had that buzz at 14 and 15 but then stopped growing). Muhammad, Barnes, and Okafor never had that sort of buzz. Giles buzz began fading after the first ACL surgery, just as Oden's star set after the second microfracture surgery (but the way he demolished the competition at Ohio State with his off hand justified that buzz).
 

Cellar-Door

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Were they under the salary floor? Maybe they were just trying to avoid giving their minimum wage workers a raise?
I think they just decided they weren't willing to pay him what he wanted in free agency and this was the best combination of pick and player (Anderson) they could get. Didn't want to get stuck letting him walk.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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He and Embiid played exactly 8 minutes together, according to Zach Lowe. Cutting bait a bit early, in my mind.

Also, still interested to understand who this team is that's going to pay Noel so much.
 

garlan5

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I'm happy for Anderson. I don't keep up with nba. Is there any chance Anderson gets significant minutes. He's a very skilled player. Defends, shoots the 3,and can get to the rim.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, I'm not high on Ingram and am thrilled that we got Brown instead. At the draft, I really wanted Dunn but think we really dodged a bullet there too. He wouldn't even be beating out Rozier for minutes. And they're almost the exact age.

Ingram still has potential as a scorer but what is his ceiling? Maybe the current version of Andrew Wiggins (i.e., all scoring and not much else)? His body type also scares me. Just doesn't look like a guy that can put much weight on.
To be brutally honest, if the picks were reversed, it's very likely that we would be watching Jaylen Brown flail about for the Los Angeles Dumpster Fires and be talking about how glad we were to have Ingram instead. This isn't to say that Ingram doesn't have his warts, pretty much all draftees do. The simple fact is that the overwhelming majority of draftees need to land in the right situation to hit their ceiling.

For example, If Kawhi Leonard had been drafted by a franchise like the Kings or the JaVale McGee era Wizards, I'd be shocked if he were anything but an athletic body at the SG/SF/PF spots. It was ending up on a vet team with the coaching infrastructure in place that allowed him to reach his ceiling.

That's why I'm OK with Boston not emptying the vault for Butler or George and using the picks, because as a winning vet team with the coaching infrastructure in place (aside from the lack of a full time shooting coach), they just are the right situation for top five draftees to walk into and grow into their games. I feel a lot better about Boston developing the Josh Jacksons or Lonzo Balls than I would if I were, say, a Kings fan.
 

cheech13

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I'm happy for Anderson. I don't keep up with nba. Is there any chance Anderson gets significant minutes. He's a very skilled player. Defends, shoots the 3,and can get to the rim.
Dallas better hope that Justin Anderson is Jared Cunningham redux and not Jae Crowder or Al-Farouq Aminu. They haven't had good luck identifying the right athletic wings to keep.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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cheech13

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Turning the 6th pick in the draft into the 19th + Anderson is bad math.
I understand the thought process, but wouldn't Philly have been better off keeping Jrue Holliday the past four years? They've been looking for a PG ever since that deal and none of the assets they received in return have done much of anything.