Gitter done, Theo: let's put all our dumb I mean brilliant trade suggestions in this thread

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don't know if another Xander specific thread and poll is really necessary... but assuming a reasonable contract- say 6/180M contract..... would most people here want Xander? I'm just generally getting a feeling that it leans towards "no".
 

jwbasham84

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I just think that 6 years at $30M/yr is a little too much for X as we are almost certain to be moving him to a less valuable position on the diamond in the near future. His bat has carried him in the past and maybe injuries last year are what led to the drop in power. If not, when the bat slows a little, which it will, his defense declines further, which it will, we could be paying $30M/yr for a non-hitting DH.... not a scenario that championship teams are built around.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I just think that 6 years at $30M/yr is a little too much for X as we are almost certain to be moving him to a less valuable position on the diamond in the near future. His bat has carried him in the past and maybe injuries last year are what led to the drop in power. If not, when the bat slows a little, which it will, his defense declines further, which it will, we could be paying $30M/yr for a non-hitting DH.... not a scenario that championship teams are built around.
I seriously doubt he'd be a DH-only. He likely can (and really only should) stick at SS for 3 years more, maximum. At that point, if Devers can't be brought back, I'd trust X to be above average D and bat at 3rd base for the final 3 years... in which he'd be overpaid, but not horribly in years 4-6 figuring in current ML salary inflation. If Devers is back, then I think he'd make a good transition to LF at Fenway and P/T DH duties away in more challenging fields. That's even more overpaid... but likely not cripplingly so. That said... I don't think more than 6 years is a good idea at $30MAAV
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I'm ok with slightly overpaying X on his AAV considering they should have cheap options in Casas, Bello, Mayer, Rafaela, etc coming up through the system to provide cheap players on the roster.
 

KillerBs

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Absolutely sign me up for 7/210 at least for Bogaerts. He is a 130 OPS+ guy over the last 5 years

Where else would you rather spend the money?

Xander moves to 3b or LF when Mayer is ready in 2025, Devers to 1b or DH. It is not complicated.

If we can find a couple decent OFers and a good SP or two, this team should be in thick of it.

Without Xander (or Correa or TTurner) things looks grim IMO esp as I expect Raffy follows him out of town.

And as for wild ass trade suggestions, it is tough as we have little to no surplus to move.
 

walt in maryland

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I don't know if another Xander specific thread and poll is really necessary... but assuming a reasonable contract- say 6/180M contract..... would most people here want Xander? I'm just generally getting a feeling that it leans towards "no".
Hard yes. And I'd be willing to go a little beyond "reasonable."
 

walt in maryland

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What the hell are we going to do with Jarren Duran? He's pre-ard eligible I think still. Can he work it out another year in AAA to fix, I dunno, basically everything? He will be 27 and I think we should toss him into any trade at this point.
I don't think the Sox expect Duran to stick as a starting OF. But he's under their control and cheap, and with the rule changes, his one elite tool (speed) could make him a valuable reserve or (more likely) trade piece.
 

walt in maryland

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Absolutely sign me up for 7/210 at least for Bogaerts. He is a 130 OPS+ guy over the last 5 years

Where else would you rather spend the money?

Xander moves to 3b or LF when Mayer is ready in 2025, Devers to 1b or DH. It is not complicated.

If we can find a couple decent OFers and a good SP or two, this team should be in thick of it.

Without Xander (or Correa or TTurner) things looks grim IMO esp as I expect Raffy follows him out of town.

And as for wild ass trade suggestions, it is tough as we have little to no surplus to move.
Don't forget the bullpen
 

YTF

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I don't think the Sox expect Duran to stick as a starting OF. But he's under their control and cheap, and with the rule changes, his one elite tool (speed) could make him a valuable reserve or (more likely) trade piece.
IMO, he's got to learn how to use fully utilize that tool. He can hoof it down to first base, but IIRC once on the bases he hasn't shown to be a smart base runner and until he learns to take better routes to fly balls he's not going to realize the full benefits of that speed on defense. If he can improve in those ares he can enhance his value.
 
I don't know if another Xander specific thread and poll is really necessary... but assuming a reasonable contract- say 6/180M contract..... would most people here want Xander? I'm just generally getting a feeling that it leans towards "no".
I'm a definite no on that.

Where else would you rather spend the money?

Xander moves to 3b or LF when Mayer is ready in 2025, Devers to 1b or DH. It is not complicated.

If we can find a couple decent OFers and a good SP or two, this team should be in thick of it.
I'm not a fan of the "where else would you rather spend the money" mentality. If we were talking about this year I'd absolutely agree with you. X is one of the best ways to drop 30mm in 2023, no question. But in 2025 there's a pretty reasonable chance that X isn't even playing at a "good" level anymore, let alone an elite level. I looked at the careers of every 30+ career WAR player over the past 20 years, and found that while almost all of them were still producing at 30, 25% of them weren't even putting up 2 fWAR/year by age 32. To justify a 30mm AAV you'd really want 3-4 fWAR.

Sure, if we find a couple of decent OFers and a good SP or two (and fix the bullpen, I'll add), AND resign X this team should be in the thick of it. But those are some pretty damn big ifs!

By the '25/26 season we could easily be looking at the next Killer B's era. I'd much rather have the 30mm to spend on the best available players (Soto?) to maximize the second half of this decade even if it means a somewhat lower chance of competing for the next year or two.

As to what I'd do with the money now -- probably put it toward 1-3 year deals for solid but unspectacular players even if it means overpaying on AAV and hope for a 2013 scenario.
 

Benj4ever

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I'm a definite no on that.



I'm not a fan of the "where else would you rather spend the money" mentality. If we were talking about this year I'd absolutely agree with you. X is one of the best ways to drop 30mm in 2023, no question. But in 2025 there's a pretty reasonable chance that X isn't even playing at a "good" level anymore, let alone an elite level. I looked at the careers of every 30+ career WAR player over the past 20 years, and found that while almost all of them were still producing at 30, 25% of them weren't even putting up 2 fWAR/year by age 32. To justify a 30mm AAV you'd really want 3-4 fWAR.

Sure, if we find a couple of decent OFers and a good SP or two (and fix the bullpen, I'll add), AND resign X this team should be in the thick of it. But those are some pretty damn big ifs!

By the '25/26 season we could easily be looking at the next Killer B's era. I'd much rather have the 30mm to spend on the best available players (Soto?) to maximize the second half of this decade even if it means a somewhat lower chance of competing for the next year or two.

As to what I'd do with the money now -- probably put it toward 1-3 year deals for solid but unspectacular players even if it means overpaying on AAV and hope for a 2013 scenario.
Chris Sale (cough, cough!)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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IMO, he's got to learn how to use fully utilize that tool. He can hoof it down to first base, but IIRC once on the bases he hasn't shown to be a smart base runner and until he learns to take better routes to fly balls he's not going to realize the full benefits of that speed on defense. If he can improve in those ares he can enhance his value.
Was there any notable defensive improvement by him after he went back to AAA late in the season? I still think with the shift-defense change going forward, if he just plays back to his more natural hitting approach he could become extremely valuable- assuming some defensive improvement. I NEVER liked him but his trade value is zero and think Bloom should have cashed it in mid-season’21 when he had some shine on him
 

MuzzyField

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I am all I’m on that deal!
Why?

O'Brien is the backstabbing fuck that demanded the NESN chair or he was going to leave. Radio was beneath him.

I do the public a service and move him to Charlotte to go all in on the ACC Network.. DOB in the Morning, Afternoon and Night!

It's so totally on NESN mismanagement, and then add in the technical ineptitude and you have BINGO!

Thanks, Tom!
 

ehaz

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If they can re-sign Xander and extend Devers, every prospect not named Casas and Bello should be on the table for upgrades to the rest of the roster. Including Marcelo Mayer.

Any contract/extension is going to be rough on the back-end. I think you aim for at least a 3 or 4 year window where Xander continues to produce as a 4 to 5 WAR player, coinciding with Devers' prime years, and do whatever you can to maximize it by adding to the roster through FA and trades. Sign a Kodai Senga to add upside to the rotation, bring back Eovaldi to allow you to keep Whitlock in the pen and perhaps dangle Houck in a package for a bigger fish. Make some smart, short money signings like Haniger and another bullpen piece. Ignore the tax for now. By 2024, Kike Hernandez and Matt Barnes are off the books saving you ~$20M. One year later, Sale is gone freeing up another ~$30M. You have the cheap talent every contender needs right now in Casas, Bello, and Whitlock to fill out the rest of the roster while you spend elsewhere.

Trade targets should fit this window. Guys like Reynolds, Murphy, Burnes, and Woodruff have 2 - 3 years of control. The lower minors guys with the value like Miguel Bleis, Nick Yorke (and for certain top-end talent, like Burnes, Marcelo Mayer) should be shopped along with guys like Houck if another team like OAK sees him as a starter and rates him highly. Maybe you try to keep Raffaela since he's closer and fills a long term need, but I'd capitalize on his breakout in an instant if he could be the centerpiece of a Sean Murphy deal.
 

Ganthem

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If they can re-sign Xander and extend Devers, every prospect not named Casas and Bello should be on the table for upgrades to the rest of the roster. Including Marcelo Mayer.

Any contract/extension is going to be rough on the back-end. I think you aim for at least a 3 or 4 year window where Xander continues to produce as a 4 to 5 WAR player, coinciding with Devers' prime years, and do whatever you can to maximize it by adding to the roster through FA and trades. Sign a Kodai Senga to add upside to the rotation, bring back Eovaldi to allow you to keep Whitlock in the pen and perhaps dangle Houck in a package for a bigger fish. Make some smart, short money signings like Haniger and another bullpen piece. Ignore the tax for now. By 2024, Kike Hernandez and Matt Barnes are off the books saving you ~$20M. One year later, Sale is gone freeing up another ~$30M. You have the cheap talent every contender needs right now in Casas, Bello, and Whitlock to fill out the rest of the roster while you spend elsewhere.

Trade targets should fit this window. Guys like Reynolds, Murphy, Burnes, and Woodruff have 2 - 3 years of control. The lower minors guys with the value like Miguel Bleis, Nick Yorke (and for certain top-end talent, like Burnes, Marcelo Mayer) should be shopped along with guys like Houck if another team like OAK sees him as a starter and rates him highly. Maybe you try to keep Raffaela since he's closer and fills a long term need, but I'd capitalize on his breakout in an instant if he could be the centerpiece of a Sean Murphy deal.
Or you can keep Whitlock in the rotation where he is more valuable and try to build a team that is capable of sustain success
 

ehaz

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Or you can keep Whitlock in the rotation where he is more valuable and try to build a team that is capable of sustain success
It is far from a given that Whitlock is more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen. Small sample size, but he threw the same amount of innings as a starter and as a reliever last season. 4.15 ERA as a starter and 2.75 ERA in relief. In addition to just general effectiveness, Whitlock being more valuable in the rotation is dependent on his ability to actually take the ball every 5th day, and he has yet to show that he can actually do so. The 78 innings Whitlock threw last season was the second highest of his career (even going all the way back to college). Whitlock's career high is 120 innings in single-A ball more than four seasons and a Tommy John ago. I'd rather stick with the bird in the hand rather than risk injury/ineffectiveness by shuttling him between the rotation and bullpen for another year or two.

Also, I think building a team capable of "sustained success" at this point involves letting Xander walk and trading Devers. Actually, the time to do that was probably last winter or last trade deadline when Devers wouldn't have been a rental. This was a last place team with Xander and Devers combining for ~11 WAR and making a fraction of what they will be paid in the seasons to come. What success is there to be sustained by paying Xander and Devers $60M per year, letting Eovaldi walk, and pursuing Rich Hill/Joely Rodriguez types to fill out the roster? Best case scenario, by the time guys like Mayer, Bleis, Yorke and Raffaela are ready to seriously contribute, Xander is 33-34 years old and you'll need to start to consider extensions for Whitlock, Casas, Bello, Houck, etc.

I'd rather make a run at it while both remain in their prime by using the farm and FA to add players who are similarly in their primes and hope that there's enough low minors depth and continued drafting success by Bloom to sustain it, rather than hoping for 88-92 wins per year + an occassional playoff run like a 2021 that seems more flukey in hindsight.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I agree, in theory, but how does one add players who are in their primes via FA? It just doesn’t really work that way; when it does it’s a guy like Devers.
 
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Ganthem

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It is far from a given that Whitlock is more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen. Small sample size, but he threw the same amount of innings as a starter and as a reliever last season. 4.15 ERA as a starter and 2.75 ERA in relief. In addition to just general effectiveness, Whitlock being more valuable in the rotation is dependent on his ability to actually take the ball every 5th day, and he has yet to show that he can actually do so. The 78 innings Whitlock threw last season was the second highest of his career (even going all the way back to college). Whitlock's career high is 120 innings in single-A ball more than four seasons and a Tommy John ago. I'd rather stick with the bird in the hand rather than risk injury/ineffectiveness by shuttling him between the rotation and bullpen for another year or two.

Also, I think building a team capable of "sustained success" at this point involves letting Xander walk and trading Devers. Actually, the time to do that was probably last winter or last trade deadline when Devers wouldn't have been a rental. This was a last place team with Xander and Devers combining for ~11 WAR and making a fraction of what they will be paid in the seasons to come. What success is there to be sustained by paying Xander and Devers $60M per year, letting Eovaldi walk, and pursuing Rich Hill/Joely Rodriguez types to fill out the roster? Best case scenario, by the time guys like Mayer, Bleis, Yorke and Raffaela are ready to seriously contribute, Xander is 33-34 years old and you'll need to start to consider extensions for Whitlock, Casas, Bello, Houck, etc.

I'd rather make a run at it while both remain in their prime by using the farm and FA to add players who are similarly in their primes and hope that there's enough low minors depth and continued drafting success by Bloom to sustain it, rather than hoping for 88-92 wins per year + an occassional playoff run like a 2021 that seems more flukey in hindsight.
It might come to pass that Whitlock's place is eventually in the bullpen, but I don't think we are at that point since the number of innings pitched in both the bullpen and rotation are not anywhere close to being a large enough sample size. If Whitlock is capable of putting up a 4.15 era over 150 to 200 innings that will make him more valuable then throwing sixty innings in the bullpen with a 2.75 era. As for this being a last place team with Devers and Bogey combining for 11 war that is a bit misleading. This was a last place team because of the heap of injuries that occurred. I am not saying this is necessairly you, but there are tons of people on this board who want to ignore the injuries and go after Bloom. The fact is, not the Yanks, the Dodgers, the Astros or any team could contend if they had the rash of injuries that the Sox had.
 

ehaz

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I agree, in theory, but how does one add players who are in their primes via FA? It just doesn’t really work that way; when it does it’s a guy like Devers.
Players hit FA in their primes. I'd argue that out of the main guys this year, Rodon, Nimmo, Swanson, Correa, Bogaerts, and Turner are all to some extent still in their primes. And then you have a wild-card in Senga. They're probably not going to be at their primes for the entire contract, but if you get ~3 years of prime production you'd be pretty happy due to how it coincides with Xander.

The tricky part is figuring out which players can sustain that production or which players have another gear left to unlock (like Zack Wheeler a couple years ago). But you have to take some risks to get there.

I think Chaim was trying to do this with Seiya Suzuki, who we were reportedly very in on. That was a player with the right timeline and right roster fit.
 

jon abbey

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I think Chaim was trying to do this with Seiya Suzuki, who we were reportedly very in on. That was a player with the right timeline and right roster fit.
FWIW, Suzuki had a red-hot first two weeks for the Cubs and was pretty bad after that, it seems like the league got the book on him pretty quickly. He had a .770 OPS overall but just a .710 OPS from April 19th on.
 

Benj4ever

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It might come to pass that Whitlock's place is eventually in the bullpen, but I don't think we are at that point since the number of innings pitched in both the bullpen and rotation are not anywhere close to being a large enough sample size. If Whitlock is capable of putting up a 4.15 era over 150 to 200 innings that will make him more valuable then throwing sixty innings in the bullpen with a 2.75 era. As for this being a last place team with Devers and Bogey combining for 11 war that is a bit misleading. This was a last place team because of the heap of injuries that occurred. I am not saying this is necessairly you, but there are tons of people on this board who want to ignore the injuries and go after Bloom. The fact is, not the Yanks, the Dodgers, the Astros or any team could contend if they had the rash of injuries that the Sox had.
The small-sample-size ERA comparison is especially misleading, since Whitlock was in the rotation dealing with injury issues before going on the DL,. We've yet to see how effective he can be when healthy. I'm optimistic in this regard, but we'll just have to see how it works.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Here are a couple of deals that work in the trade simulator, what do you guys think?

Matthew Lugo for Max Kepler (Kepler has been mentioned in here before and I like the idea of seeing what the Twins would want for him)
Bleis, Romero, Yorke, Blaze for Pablo Lopez (Might be the best SP available via trade, would cost the Sox some pretty good prospects)
Eddinson Paulino for German Marquez and CJ Cron (Buy low on Marquez who pitches much better away from Coors and pick up a power hitting DH who can play some 1B in the deal). This seems light in terms of what COL would want back, but the trade simulator doesn't value Marquez highly and Cron has 0 value there.

Not advocating for all of these deals, just looking for things that could work with teams that weren't really in contention last year.
 

Scoops Bolling

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FWIW, Suzuki had a red-hot first two weeks for the Cubs and was pretty bad after that, it seems like the league got the book on him pretty quickly. He had a .770 OPS overall but just a .710 OPS from April 19th on.
That's not really a fair or accurate analysis. Suzuki did start red hot, then struggled and missed time with injury. He finished the year with a .847 OPS in Sept/Oct and really just had a terrible 6 week stretch from late April through May. The underlying analytics are extremely promising for Suzuki; lots of hard contact, strong top end exit velo, with excellent chase and whiff rates. His defensive numbers in the OF were very disappointing, but offensively he looks like a potential stud.
 

jon abbey

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That's not really a fair or accurate analysis. Suzuki did start red hot, then struggled and missed time with injury. He finished the year with a .847 OPS in Sept/Oct and really just had a terrible 6 week stretch from late April through May. The underlying analytics are extremely promising for Suzuki; lots of hard contact, strong top end exit velo, with excellent chase and whiff rates. His defensive numbers in the OF were very disappointing, but offensively he looks like a potential stud.
Fair enough, you know a lot more about this than I do, that dropoff just really struck me.
 

YTF

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Kepler has really dropped off in production the past two seasons and has had a bit of difficulty staying on the field which may well be the cause of that decline. He's had a wrist sprain, bad hammy, fractured pinkie toe and missed time due to a couple of illnesses. None of that is devastating enough to suggest that he can't bounce back. He's considered an excellent outfielder and at 8.5M for next season with a 10M team option for '24 he might be worth taking a shot on, however he will make the batting order even more left handed .
 

chawson

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Kepler has really dropped off in production the past two seasons and has had a bit of difficulty staying on the field which may well be the cause of that decline. He's had a wrist sprain, bad hammy, fractured pinkie toe and missed time due to a couple of illnesses. None of that is devastating enough to suggest that he can't bounce back. He's considered an excellent outfielder and at 8.5M for next season with a 10M team option for '24 he might be worth taking a shot on, however he will make the batting order even more left handed .
Kepler is one of the very most unlucky hitters in baseball the last two years, and has been identified (by an Eno Sarris piece in the Athletic) as a hitter who stands to benefit most from the shift ban.
 

chawson

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Here are a couple of deals that work in the trade simulator, what do you guys think?

Matthew Lugo for Max Kepler (Kepler has been mentioned in here before and I like the idea of seeing what the Twins would want for him)
Love it. I think the weird leaguewide shortage of right-fielders suggest he'd go for more and suspect the Twins may want pitching, but I'm all over this kind of deal, especially while Lugo has some helium.

Bleis, Romero, Yorke, Blaze for Pablo Lopez (Might be the best SP available via trade, would cost the Sox some pretty good prospects)
Not a fan of this at all. I like López but think he can be a bit volatile and come undone easily. He had six starts from June 17 on last year where he was mysteriously shellacked, allowing 5 ER or more. I don't know if the mechanics come unglued or what, but it's a little volatile for this kind of package.

Handedness aside, López is a very similar pitcher to E-Rod, right down to the FB-CH-CT arsenal.

ER '19-21: 3.63 FIP, 25.9 K%, 8.0 BB%, 1.07 HR/9, 46.2 GB%, 11.7 SwStr%
PL: '20-22: 3.48 FIP, 25.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 0.95 HR/9, 47.4 GB%, 12.3 SwStr%

There's a three-year age difference, but I don't know why we'd give up a haul like that (and it is a haul) for two years of López when we could have just re-signed E-Rod through his not especially old age-33 season.

Eddinson Paulino for German Marquez and CJ Cron (Buy low on Marquez who pitches much better away from Coors and pick up a power hitting DH who can play some 1B in the deal). This seems light in terms of what COL would want back, but the trade simulator doesn't value Marquez highly and Cron has 0 value there.

Not advocating for all of these deals, just looking for things that could work with teams that weren't really in contention last year.
This is interesting. I really liked Márquez as a target in the past but he was pretty bad last year. Less so on the road, but the K's have gone away even especially outside of Coors. The velocity is still there and there's all kinds of downstream effects that come from pitching in Coors, so I have no idea what to make of him.

He's still young (28 in 2023) and incredibly durable, having thrown the 6th most innings in baseball since 2017. And his career wOBA allowed away from Coors is .295, which is solid #2 material.

I doubt they trade Cron after extending him last winter, but who knows with them. He was also terrible outside of Coors — which is typically misleading because of the Iannetta Effect, but there are signs that his approach regressed negatively after a great spike in plate discipline in 2021.

That said, not a bad gamble for Paulino, who is interesting but probably trade bait.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Love it. I think the weird leaguewide shortage of right-fielders suggest he'd go for more and suspect the Twins may want pitching, but I'm all over this kind of deal, especially while Lugo has some helium.



Not a fan of this at all. I like López but think he can be a bit volatile and come undone easily. He had six starts from June 17 on last year where he was mysteriously shellacked, allowing 5 ER or more. I don't know if the mechanics come unglued or what, but it's a little volatile for this kind of package.

Handedness aside, López is a very similar pitcher to E-Rod, right down to the FB-CH-CT arsenal.

ER '19-21: 3.63 FIP, 25.9 K%, 8.0 BB%, 1.07 HR/9, 46.2 GB%, 11.7 SwStr%
PL: '20-22: 3.48 FIP, 25.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 0.95 HR/9, 47.4 GB%, 12.3 SwStr%

There's a three-year age difference, but I don't know why we'd give up a haul like that (and it is a haul) for two years of López when we could have just re-signed E-Rod through his not especially old age-33 season.



This is interesting. I really liked Márquez as a target in the past but he was pretty bad last year. Less so on the road, but the K's have gone away even especially outside of Coors. The velocity is still there and there's all kinds of downstream effects that come from pitching in Coors, so I have no idea what to make of him.

He's still young (28 in 2023) and incredibly durable, having thrown the 6th most innings in baseball since 2017. And his career wOBA allowed away from Coors is .295, which is solid #2 material.

I doubt they trade Cron after extending him last winter, but who knows with them. He was also terrible outside of Coors — which is typically misleading because of the Iannetta Effect, but there are signs that his approach regressed negatively after a great spike in plate discipline in 2021.

That said, not a bad gamble for Paulino, who is interesting but probably trade bait.
Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of Lopez, either. He primarily relies on his fastball and change and that worries me pitching in the AL East. Feel like teams would get used to facing him. I'm just not sure if there's a better pitcher who will be traded (outside of Woodruff/Burnes if MIL decides to move one).

And while the Rockies did extend Cron, his contract is up after '23, so that's why I thought they may be willing to deal him. He wouldn't be my first pick for DH, but I'd rather have him on the team than Hosmer.

Speaking of MIL, a deal for Woodruff would certainly be interesting. Maybe something like Houck, Bleis, Romero? Not sure how much value Houck really holds coming off injury, though. If Yelich gets involved, it gets a lot more complicated figuring the $.
 

jon abbey

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I deleted some posts, we are supposed to be attempting to maintain quality standards on the main board and that is even more the case for lurkers. Do better.
 

The Gray Eagle

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The Athletic has some possible trade scenarios involving the Red Sox:
https://theathletic.com/3958926/2022/12/02/red-sox-trade-scenarios/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
(Note: these aren't rumors, they are made-up trades that some sportswriters are discussing, like we do here. But they have beat writers who cover each team involved giving their reactions, so it's not all biased from just one team's perspective.)

1. PITTSBURGH: OF Bryan Reynolds for RHP Bryan Mata, SS/OF Ceddanne Rafaela and RHP John Schreiber
I vote NO on this one, I love Rafaela and don't think Reynolds is as great as many people do. He's a good player, but I don't give up those 3 pieces for him. The Pirates writer wouldn't do this trade, so it might cost us even more to get Reynolds.

2. MINNESOTA: RHP Griffin Jax and OF Max Kepler for C Reese McGuire and RHP Connor Seabold
I vote YES on this one, I like McGuire but I don't think Seabold will do much and we could always re-sign Vazquez or possibly Contreras to fill the catcher spot. Kepler would fill a big hole and Jax was good last year after sucking in 2021, he could be a solid bullpen arm. The Twins writer said he would do this deal. As we say in New England, so wouldn't I.

3. CINCINNATI: RHP Buck Farmer for OF Jarren Duran and RHP Connor Seabold.
In general don't mind us giving up these guys, but Buck Farmer doesn't seem like a great return, and the new rules might make Duran a useful player. Buck Farmer is a great name, but he has had multiple bad years, he seems like basically another Brasier and we just gave our own friggin' Brasier a new contract, so I vote NO on this one. The Reds writer would do this deal.

4. ARIZONA: OF Jake McCarthy for LHP Brandon Walter, C Reese McGuire, INF Bobby Dalbec
McCarthy is good, he's kind of what we hoped/dreamed/wanted Duran to be. If we did this move, Dalbec would probably become Mark Reynolds and have multiple 30-HR seasons in AZ. He probably won't do that here though. If we did this we would need to sign a catcher, like the proposed Kepler deal. I'd rather do that deal instead, and keep Walter and Dalbec for other trades. The D-Backs writer would turn down this offer, so if they'd want even more, then forget it.

5. OAKLAND: C Sean Murphy for SS/OF Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B Nick Yorke and INF Bobby Dalbec
Murphy is clearly better than McGuire, no doubt about it. But is he that much better? He's much more proven, but he's not exactly Johnny Bench-- he's projected to have a .735 OPS next year by Marcel and .752 by Steamer. McGuire seemed pretty cromulent last year and other teams seem to think so. Is Murphy so much better that we need to give up Rafaela and Yorke? (and also Dalbec, Oakland is the kind of team like AZ where he would probably hit a lot of bombs.) I guess if you do this trade, then that frees up McGuire to flip for McCarthy or Kepler, but I'd rather just keep our prospects and McGuire, or else keep our prospects and sign a catcher if we did move McGuire for an OF. The A's writer says this offer doesn't come close to what Oakland would want for Murphy and starts talking about Bello, so I stopped reading and came here to type NO on this one.
 
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Rice4HOF

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Jan 21, 2002
1,814
Calgary, Canada
What would it take to get Bryan Reynolds, without giving up Casas/Mayer/Bello?

The Pirates presumably want cheap, young, talent, but they also need to field a team this season.
They don't have any first baseman, need pitching, and would need to replace Reynolds, so start by giving them Hosmer, Duran, and Houck. All cheap and useful, but that doesn't nearly balance out the trade, so we need to add some of our good prospects. Would adding Rafaela, Yorke, and Jordan be enough?

They'd get these guys to fill imeediate starting positions on their roster:
1B - Hosmer
CF - Duran
SP/RP - Houck

and future possible starts Rafaela, Yorke, and Blaze.
This gives the Pirates some future upside and doesn't decimate our prospect capital.
 

Benj4ever

lurker
Nov 21, 2022
65
Personally, I think this is far too generous of an offer. Secondly, Reynolds isn't likely to be a guy who will put us over the top next year, so the timing isn't right to make this kind of deal. Also, while you fill a hole with this deal, you also lose your insurance policy at first base and open up a hole in the bullpen/rotation.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
What would it take to get Bryan Reynolds, without giving up Casas/Mayer/Bello?

The Pirates presumably want cheap, young, talent, but they also need to field a team this season.
They don't have any first baseman, need pitching, and would need to replace Reynolds, so start by giving them Hosmer, Duran, and Houck. All cheap and useful, but that doesn't nearly balance out the trade, so we need to add some of our good prospects. Would adding Rafaela, Yorke, and Jordan be enough?

They'd get these guys to fill imeediate starting positions on their roster:
1B - Hosmer
CF - Duran
SP/RP - Houck

and future possible starts Rafaela, Yorke, and Blaze.
This gives the Pirates some future upside and doesn't decimate our prospect capital.
I don't move Houck in this deal. The Sox have just taken two steps (Martin and Rodriquez) toward strengthening the bullpen. Trading Houck detracts from that, especially when you consider that he's 26 years old, not arb eligible until '25, doesn't hit free agency until '28 and has a career 3.02 ERA in 146 IP.
 

chawson

Member
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Aug 1, 2006
3,589
One thing I don’t like about Reynolds’ batting profile is that he’s an absolute ground-ball machine from the right side of the plate. 54 percent of his batted balls as a right-handed hitter were grounders, which is top 5 percent of right handed hitters.

It’s not a huge issue, and don’t want to rush to conclude that he’s incapable of elevating the ball as a RHB. Maybe it’s the inverse, and the Monster might incentivize him to hit it in the air more. But as it stands, that kind of profile — lofted fly balls to right, grounders toward left — isn’t the Fenway ideal.
 

Yaz4Ever

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I don't move Houck in this deal. The Sox have just taken two steps (Martin and Rodriquez) toward strengthening the bullpen. Trading Houck detracts from that, especially when you consider that he's 26 years old, not arb eligible until '25, doesn't hit free agency until '28 and has a career 3.02 ERA in 146 IP.
I agree wholeheartedly with this. I know many don’t care for him, but Houck could be a big part of our staff.
 

Benj4ever

lurker
Nov 21, 2022
65
It's not a trade, but I would like to see the Sox sign Josh Bell to a 1-year-prove-it deal in free agency.
 

Alex Cole's Rec Specs

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Aug 31, 2006
111
South Acton, Mass.
It's not a trade, but I would like to see the Sox sign Josh Bell to a 1-year-prove-it deal in free agency.
Everything I have read so far this offseason suggests signing Bell will require at least a three-year deal and at least $12 million or $13 million per year (perhaps more now that Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu have both signed for around $20 million AAV). Can you elaborate on why you think Bell would have to settle for a one-year deal?
 

RG33

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SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
6,673
CA
Everything I have read so far this offseason suggests signing Bell will require at least a three-year deal and at least $12 million or $13 million per year (perhaps more now that Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu have both signed for around $20 million AAV). Can you elaborate on why you think Bell would have to settle for a one-year deal?
I would be thrilled with Josh Bell on a 3-year $12m AAV contract — I would think it is going to be closer to 3 years and $51-54M though, and I still may do that for his bar.
 

Benj4ever

lurker
Nov 21, 2022
65
Bell had a 123 wrc+ last year. He has nothing to prove.
I don't have the link, but I read on another website that his value decreased after he slumped with the Padres, and he might want to sign a one-year "prove it deal." It makes a certain amount of sense, since his power numbers were down last year, and he isn't exactly "selling high" at this point.

Found it. Here's the link: 2023 Free Agent Profile: Josh Bell | Just Baseball
 
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Sep 12, 2022
188
Wouldn't Mitch Haniger be a better deal than Bryan Reynolds? A equal hitter, but would not have to trade the farm for him.
Also Mitch Haniger reminds me of a J.D. in his prime. The ball just explodes off his bat.
Any thoughts?
Respectfully Ron.
 
Sep 12, 2022
188
I like Josh Bell a lot to. Get it done Theo. Lol. Seriously, I like Josh Bell a lot.
Josh Bell and Mitch Haniger in the same lineup with Bogie and Devers, now we talking.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
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Jul 15, 2005
65,683
I don't have the link, but I read on another website that his value decreased after he slumped with the Padres, and he might want to sign a one-year "prove it deal." It makes a certain amount of sense, since his power numbers were down last year, and he isn't exactly "selling high" at this point.
There are a couple of sites you should check regarding expected free agent prices, the MLB Trade Rumors one and the Fangraphs one are the non-paywall ones I recommend.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html

They have Bell at 4/64.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

They have Bell somewhere between 2/18 and 3/43.

So it's not inconceivable that he might take 1/20 from someone if he isn't seeing longer-term deals he likes, but I don't think it's super likely.
 

Benj4ever

lurker
Nov 21, 2022
65
There are a couple of sites you should check regarding expected free agent prices, the MLB Trade Rumors one and the Fangraphs one are the non-paywall ones I recommend.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html

They have Bell at 4/64.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

They have Bell somewhere between 2/18 and 3/43.

So it's not inconceivable that he might take 1/20 from someone if he isn't seeing longer-term deals he likes, but I don't think it's super likely.
I can't say that I think it's a high-probability event, but I'd be willing to go fishing at $20-22 for one year and see if he takes the bait. With his inconsistency, though, I can't say I'd be thrilled about giving him 4 years.
 

Benj4ever

lurker
Nov 21, 2022
65
Wouldn't Mitch Haniger be a better deal than Bryan Reynolds? A equal hitter, but would not have to trade the farm for him.
Also Mitch Haniger reminds me of a J.D. in his prime. The ball just explodes off his bat.
Any thoughts?
Respectfully Ron.
You have to worry about Haniger's injury history, especially since he's on the wrong side of 30. MLB trade rumors has him at $15M/year/3 years. I'd be willing to go higher than that ($18-20M), but there'd have to be a clause similar to Lackey's - if he's out a full year, he gets the major league minimum salary.
 
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Ganthem

a ray of sunshine
SoSH Member
Apr 7, 2022
914
You have to worry about Haniger's injury history, especially since he's on the wrong side of 30. MLB trade rumors has him at $15M/year/3 years. I'd be willing to go higher than that ($18-20M), but there'd have to be a clause like with Lackey - where if he's out a full year, he doesn't get paid.
Both Hanniger and Nimmo have massive injury concerns. The upside of Hanniger is he will cost less years and dollars then Nimmo. And who knows maybe a few more injuries and he will be willing to move to DH. The last of course is speculation on my part.