Gitter done, Theo: let's put all our dumb I mean brilliant trade suggestions in this thread

[bosox1534]

I see an IKF trade to Boston much more likely than Gleyber. Boston obviously wouldn’t have to trade any real prospects/major leaguers to obtain him and the Yankees probably wouldn’t be all that concerned about facing him a lot during the year. Could be a decent stopgap option for Sox, but I would prefer the Andrus/Iglesias route.

BTV has IKF and Dalbec as an exact even trade. Dalbec could platoon with Rizzo on occasion and IKF could see time at SS along with Kike for a while.

 

[EvilEmpire]

The Yankees may well trade him because they have a lot of infield options, but I think IKF has more value to the Yankees as a utility IF than what Dalbec can provide. IKF may have have struggled a bit at SS at times, but still was still +10 DRS last season, ranking 6th in MLB. He's also won a GG previously at 3B. He's useful and doesn't strike out a third of the time like Dalbec. Same age as Dalbec too. Like Dalbec, he still has some time to improve.

I know I'm the resident IKF apologist in the Yankees sub-forum, but for whatever reason I think he had a rough adjustment in his first season with the Yankees, but if they keep him, he'll settle down and perform better. Especially in a utility role, I think.

But I had a soft spot for Luis Sojo back in the day too.

Also, even if he gets most of his time at 2B, I'm guessing DJ will still be the preferred option at 1B when they want to rest Rizzo.

 

[HighTek]

Can we just rename this whole thread to "Post Your Fake Trades Proposals Here".

 

[JM3]

Heh, you maybe researched the situation more than me, I just know he was rushed up after being drafted but they always planned for him to be a SP longer-term, but then TJS got in the way. Here’s how the White Sox saw him as of November:

https://sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/why-white-sox-garrett-crochet-015943392.html

Yeahhh...sounds like a bit of an optimistic projection for a guy who hasn't pitched more than 65 innings in a season in his adult life.

He also seems to have more of the pitch mix of a reliever - fastball/slider against lefties & fastball/slider/change-up against righties (& his fastball wasn't that effective in '21).

Also, this is from his December 2020 scouting report:

Serious stress on the arm and shoulder have led to frequent injuries.

https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/garrett-crochet

I think I would be concerned about making a serious commitment.

 

[HighTek]

Best Javy Baez trade proposals?

The current Rumor is Baez for Hamilton - dies that work?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Best Javy Baez trade proposals?

The current Rumor is Baez for Hamilton - dies that work?

Not a rumor. Not even a reality. There's little reason to think the Tigers are interested in trading Baez.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

A Baez trade will never work because there is no way the Tigers are paying down enough of the contract to keep the Sox below the LT threshold.

 

[OCD SS]

Cross posting my reply from the rumors thread, since maybe it belong here:

Yeah...kinda curious what the breakeven point on that contract is.

5/$120m left, & he can opt out after this year if he actually plays well. Still not really clear what the actual amount the Red Sox are under the threshold with every source saying something different...buuuuut if the Tigers paid enough to get them under the threshold? I wouldn't haaaaate it.

Agreeing that the Baez idea isn't a real rumor, but as far as options at SS go, how does he compare to picking up either Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias (as the other easily available options)?

Andrus is aging out of the game and last year looks like his dead cat bounce, and Boras is trying to turn that into a multi-year contract for a player who's only posted a WRC+ over 100 three times in his career (including last year's lotto jackpot) and who is probably mediocre at best as defensive SS now (comparing his UZR to DRS is a pretty wide gap). Iggy will cost less, but because he's worse (his feel good return to the Sox in 2021excepted), and he isn't really seen as a SS anymore, so I expect signing him is signing a 2Bman. If the goal is to keep Kike in CF, he doesn't help the roster that much.

If the Sox were to land a subsidized Baez without giving up real prospects they at least have a competent SS on the roster with the potential for offensive upside. If Baez plays well enough that he would even consider opting out, that has to be seen as a win for the team and if he actually opts out the Sox should be able to just put Story and his rebuilt elbow back at SS in 2024.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Sure; if the Tigers are willing to pay half of Baez’s salary and take little in return, lots of teams would be interested. But why would they do that, a year after singing him?

 

[YTF]

Cross posting my reply from the rumors thread, since maybe it belong here:

Agreeing that the Baez idea isn't a real rumor, but as far as options at SS go, how does he compare to picking up either Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias (as the other easily available options)?

Andrus is aging out of the game and last year looks like his dead cat bounce, and Boras is trying to turn that into a multi-year contract for a player who's only posted a WRC+ over 100 three times in his career (including last year's lotto jackpot) and who is probably mediocre at best as defensive SS now (comparing his UZR to DRS is a pretty wide gap). Iggy will cost less, but because he's worse (his feel good return to the Sox in 2021excepted), and he isn't really seen as a SS anymore, so I expect signing him is signing a 2Bman. If the goal is to keep Kike in CF, he doesn't help the roster that much.

If the Sox were to land a subsidized Baez without giving up real prospects they at least have a competent SS on the roster with the potential for offensive upside. If Baez plays well enough that he would even consider opting out, that has to be seen as a win for the team and if he actually opts out the Sox should be able to just put Story and his rebuilt elbow back at SS in 2024.

How much of a subsidy do you expect for no "real prospects" with 120M owed over the next 5 years?

 

[OCD SS]

A Baez trade will never work because there is no way the Tigers are paying down enough of the contract to keep the Sox below the LT threshold.

Why are we assuming that the Sox need to be under the LT threshold this year? Just because the team doesn't look that good right now?

The cost for being over is minimal unless you think the Sox are actually going to be able to woo Ohtani and are looking to save those penalties, but if you're going to pay him then the draft and IFA pool costs aren't going to stop you.

With the expanded playoffs, if you think the team has a chance to sneak into a wild card spot, then spend the money to take a shot.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

Why are we assuming that the Sox need to be under the LT threshold this year? Just because the team doesn't look that good right now?

The cost for being over is minimal unless you think the Sox are actually going to be able to woo Ohtani and are looking to save those penalties, but if you're going to pay him then the draft and IFA pool costs aren't going to stop you.

With the expanded playoffs, if you think the team has a chance to sneak into a wild card spot, then spend the money to take a shot.

The Sox made it pretty clear they intend to get under this year by structuring the Devers extension so his AAV hit this year stayed at his arb number rather than spreading the savings over the full deal.

 

[OCD SS]

Sure; if the Tigers are willing to pay half of Baez’s salary and take little in return, lots of teams would be interested. But why would they do that, a year after singing him?

The only way it works is if the Tigers are looking at his 2022 and thinking they have 5 more years of that, and decide to cut bait and get any savings they can. At the very least a deal like this is going to be between FOs with pretty divergent ideas regarding player value.

How much of a subsidy do you expect for no "real prospects" with 120M owed over the next 5 years?

See above, but I guess I should clarify that "no 'real prospects'" is probably better stated as "no prospects I really like." Again, I imagine this deal would center around divergent analysis of the players included by the Sox's & Tiger's FO. The amount of money involved would have to be substantial for the Sox to take the risk that he's not going to be toast as he goes into his 30's; if the Tigers think they have something of real value there and are looking for real return, then there's probably not a deal to be had, and we just thank the blogger for a fun hypothetical before our morning coffee.

 

[joe dokes]

The Sox made it pretty clear they intend to get under this year by structuring the Devers extension so his AAV hit this year stayed at his arb number rather than spreading the savings over the full deal.

I'm not as sure that the Devers deal "makes it clear." It certainly makes it easier to stay under this year. But it gives them the flexibility to decide whether to stay under depending on how the season goes, instead of being locked in regardless.

 

[OCD SS]

The Sox made it pretty clear they intend to get under this year by structuring the Devers extension so his AAV hit this year stayed at his arb number rather than spreading the savings over the full deal.

Dokes beat me to it, but that looks more like a matter of flexibility and being close and if the season's a loss then they can dump some players and get under. If they take a shot at a playoff berth (which is what everyone wants), then they have enough money coming out of short term deals that they can get under in 2024 or 2025.

I just don't see the first tier penalties as enough to enforce a hard cap on a team with these resources...

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

Sure, going over to add a real piece and make a run in the event the pitching hits its upside is an option they have. I don‘t see how going over to take on a potential dead weight contract in Baez before we have a look at the pitching makes any sense.

 

[JM3]

Yeah, 5 years of Baez doesn't really fit the '25 world of Casas/Story/Mayer/Devers Yoshida/Rafaela/Bleis I have envisioned lol

 

[simplicio]

I'm not as sure that the Devers deal "makes it clear." It certainly makes it easier to stay under this year. But it gives them the flexibility to decide whether to stay under depending on how the season goes, instead of being locked in regardless.

What makes it clear is that if they don't get under this year, they're almost certainly in for three years in a row over, and that's where the penalties get really extreme. Next year Devers gets expensive and we still have Sale on the books.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

What makes it clear is that if they don't get under this year, they're almost certainly in for three years in a row over, and that's where the penalties get really extreme. Next year Devers gets expensive and we still have Sale on the books.

But isn’t the farm system going to start cranking out productive players during that time- which will allow the team to avoid the Kluber / Turner / Martin type deals?

 

[simplicio]

But isn’t the farm system going to start cranking out productive players during that time- which will allow the team to avoid the Kluber / Turner / Martin type deals?

The only guys definitively off the roster next year are Kiké, Paxton and Brasier, and you have 5 guys hitting arb 3 and getting more expensive. We don't dump real salary until 2025.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The only guys definitively off the roster next year are Kiké, Paxton and Brasier, and you have 5 guys hitting arb 3 and getting more expensive. We don't dump real salary until 2025.

Not official yet, but should be able to add Duvall to that list. Kluber and Barnes have club options, too. They don’t have to tender contracts to guys like Pivetta, Verdugo, and Arroyo if they have cheap in house replacements, though (or more realistically, can flip those guys).

For better or worse, they aren’t locked into any guys so have the flexibility of cutting down payroll if they need to, which should happen if they have young players ready to contribute. If they don’t and have to fill in via short term free agency again, it’s more difficult.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The only guys definitively off the roster next year are Kiké, Paxton and Brasier, and you have 5 guys hitting arb 3 and getting more expensive. We don't dump real salary until 2025.

Cot's has them projected for about $155M in commitments next year (cap is $237M) and that includes estimates for all arb-eligibles. Those 5 guys hitting arb 3 next year (Verdugo, Pivetta, Arroyo, Refsnyder, Taylor) are making a collective ~$16M this year. I doubt that figure goes up by more than $10M total unless one of them really pops off, which would be a good thing. I don't think that really counts as real money in the grand scheme. Concerns about the 2024 payroll vis a vis the luxury tax seem premature.

 

[chawson]

But isn’t the farm system going to start cranking out productive players during that time- which will allow the team to avoid the Kluber / Turner / Martin type deals?

Hopefully yes, but also the Kluber/Turner/Martin-type deals seem like smart moves, don’t they? The Dodgers’ have the ideal roster, and their version of this is Syndergaard/JDM/Miller.

 

[HighTek]

Let's say the Tigers ageeed to take 40M off his contract for Hamilton, would you do it? Now let's change the name of this thread to "Fake Trades".

 

[nvalvo]

Let's say the Tigers ageeed to take 40M off his contract for Hamilton, would you do it? Now let's change the name of this thread to "Fake Trades".

Absolutely? He's owed something like 5/$117m. That is a pretty bad deal given the length of the commitment. But if you could get him for 5/77, that'd be an AAV of $15m. bWAR has him at 2.5 WAR last season, even with a disappointing offensive season. That'd be a tremendous value. He's only a decent-to-good defender at this point, but if he bounces back at all with the bat, it's a steal.

You keep Baez for 2-3 years until Mayer's ready, and then either shift him to second if the team declines to retain Story when he reaches his post-2025 opt-out/opt-back-in — or else trade him again when he has a very manageable ~2/$30m left for his age 34-35 seasons. If he's even okay over the interim, that contract might have positive value!