I’d be more interested to see how much in prospect value it would take to get Jo Adell? Buy low
it’s also the Chaim strategy
it’s also the Chaim strategy
Gitter done, Theo: let's put all our dumb I mean brilliant trade suggestions in this thread
- Thread starter The Gray Eagle
- Start date
A magic wand would work. Otherwise I'm not sure why the Twins or Marlins would ever trade franchise players that they recently signed to long-term contracts specifically for the purpose of not having to trade them.
He signed an extension after 2021 and is under contract through 2027 with Miami.
https://www.mlb.com/news/sandy-alcantara-marlins-extension-agreement
I've really been struggling to find bad teams with guys who could get traded. How about a deal to get German Marquez out of Colorado? His numbers, outside of 2021, have always been much better away from Coors. He can give you 180 innings. Maybe include CJ Cron or Randall Grichuk to fill another hole. The reason I'm proposing this deal is because the cost shouldn't be very high. And this wouldn't be my plan A if I was Bloom.
BTV has Duran at 5.9, Marquez at 4.3, Cron 0 and Grichuk -5. Cron and Grichuk are both free agents after '23 and Marquez has an option for '24 at $16M. If the Sox want to hang on to Duran, Blaze or Walter are similar value to Marquez, or they could package up a few lower valued prospects depending on what Colorado was looking for. Sox would be hoping for a bounce back of a pretty ugly looking year from Marquez.
Not a sexy move, for sure, but could give the team a durable mid rotation starter and a power bat.
BTV has Duran at 5.9, Marquez at 4.3, Cron 0 and Grichuk -5. Cron and Grichuk are both free agents after '23 and Marquez has an option for '24 at $16M. If the Sox want to hang on to Duran, Blaze or Walter are similar value to Marquez, or they could package up a few lower valued prospects depending on what Colorado was looking for. Sox would be hoping for a bounce back of a pretty ugly looking year from Marquez.
Not a sexy move, for sure, but could give the team a durable mid rotation starter and a power bat.
Schwarber or Castellanos will be available this off-season. Are the Sox interested?
I’d love a Schwarber reunion.
I’d love a Schwarber reunion.
I wouldn't mind buying low on Castellanos, either, if the FO thinks they have a good idea what's wrong with him. He's only 30, and I'm not aware of any injury, but his contact quality just collapsed this year after being in the top 10% of the league for most of the last six seasons. But he's been a tremendous hitter in the past, and we have a DH opening.
I don't actually feel terribly motivated to shed Sale now that he's actually allegedly healthy, but you could imagine a deal centered on Sale–Castellanos swap making some sense. Something like: Sale and Duran for Castellanos, Johan Rojas (a AA OF comparably valuable to Duran but not needing a 40-man spot), and something like $35m.
Why we'd do it: That would give us Castellanos as a DH for 4/$80m less the Phillies' contribution, a new Portland CF with some power potential, a 40-man spot, and would free up Sale's $27m in AAV which is currently tied up in a starting pitcher none of us really trust, despite his resume. If Castellanos bounces back, amazing. If not, it's not a huge financial gamble. I assume we're spending the freed-up AAV on another high-end SP, perhaps Rodon.
Why Philadelphia would do it: It allows them a mulligan on the Castellanos deal, which looks way underwater, gives them another much-needed big-league ready OF in one of the few outfields where he would be a defensive improvement — and if they win the dice roll on Sale's health, suddenly they look like the favorites in a stacked NL East. It feels like something Dombrowski might do, a risky win-now move to try to push a good roster over the top. And then hopefully Harper can get back to RF, get Schwarber in the DH spot, and you could play Duran in left.
So what’s the appeal of taking on Castellanos? Awful defender, hard hit % of just 35%. He’s owed 4/80. Think I’d rather just keep Sale (owed 2/55), especially given the lack of high ceiling SP on the roster. To move Sale for Castellanos and then sign Rodon seems pretty risky. Why not just keep Sale and sign Nimmo?
What the hell are we going to do with Jarren Duran? He's pre-ard eligible I think still. Can he work it out another year in AAA to fix, I dunno, basically everything? He will be 27 and I think we should toss him into any trade at this point.
I think he should certainly be available in trades to teams that want to offer any meaningful value for him, but I think it's too soon to call him a lost cause.
He is certainly pre-arb. He has, if I'm reading this right, two options remaining, and he has mostly been excellent in AAA, posting .260/.350/.500ish lines in his stints there. The defense is a question, but I think his optionable years are pretty valuable as a depth piece with legit upside if something clicks.
I've said this in another thread somewhere, but I'm curious if the new stolen base/pitchclock/pickoff rules will really help fast guys who are not especially skillful base stealers like Duran. Just observationally, he seems like a guy who trades contact for power, so if he could tone down the power stroke for more contact, BABIP and on base, maybe a bunch of stolen bases would help make up for the loss of SLG.
Duran isn’t going to get much in a trade. He is what he is. A lottery ticket. And not a 1.8 billion dollar ticket. He’s like a &1 scratch off that you can win $100 on.
There are worse things to have, but the value isn’t much.
There are worse things to have, but the value isn’t much.
We agree. He has some upside, but he's probably worth more to us honing his outfield defense and waiting for a need in Worcester than he would be in trade, unless somebody is irrationally exuberant about him.
I think this is dead on when it comes to Duran. His best value right now is probably as stashed OF depth in Worcester. Maybe he shows something if he gets called up for a couple weeks or maybe he tears up Polar Park enough to get somebody's attention long enough to pull off a trade heist, but I fear he's going to top out as a Ryan Kalish type.
Not my idea. From The Athletic:
The offer: The Red Sox trade SS Marcelo Mayer, RHP Brayan Bello, 1B Triston Casas and 1B/3B Blaze Jordan to Angels for Shohei Ohtani.
https://theathletic.com/3765832/2022/11/07/shohei-ohtani-trade-packages-teams/?source=user_shared_article
The offer: The Red Sox trade SS Marcelo Mayer, RHP Brayan Bello, 1B Triston Casas and 1B/3B Blaze Jordan to Angels for Shohei Ohtani.
https://theathletic.com/3765832/2022/11/07/shohei-ohtani-trade-packages-teams/?source=user_shared_article
Ooh, I like "Slocumb If Ya Got Em." Works in a fantasy trade thread, too. Have you considered trading it for "LoweTek"? 
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Miguel Sano sucks. Half the season he's injured, the other half is he still isn't getting on base. He might get an invite, but his best case scenario is a team take a flyer on him.
My bad on Sano, Hosmer is hurt a lot too. Let's try Jorge Soler. Slocumb If Ya Got Em came from none other than Castiglione, and to my great regret it stuck in my head for a long time lol.
Yeah, the original proposal isn't that crazy. 6 years of Duran and 3 years of basically free Hosmer has some value. Maybe a bit light but in the ballpark.
After re-acquiring Orsillo, I'd move O'Brien back to the radio coverage, where he wasn't nearly as annoying.
I don't see why Kansas City would be interested in either Duran or Hosmer. They're already trying to sort out a young outfield of Isbel, Waters, Olivares and possibly working Melendez in there, with a couple more of their top 10 prospects considered for the mix sometime in 2023. With Pasquantino possibly already being their best hitter, I doubt Hosmer nostalgia carries much weight.
True. If I were KC, I’d be looking for several younger prospects (with more upside) anyways.
Here's one from MLB.com
3. A major Dev-elopment
Mets get: 3B Rafael Devers
Red Sox get: 3B Brett Baty (Mets’ No. 2 prospect), RHP Blade Tidwell(No. 8), OF Nick Morabito (No. 14)
Boston ought to be able to lock up Devers with an extension. He is not expected to be traded. But if a deal somehow doesn’t get done? The Red Sox had better think hard about taking advantage of his value in this market before he enters his walk year.
The all-in Mets not only need Devers’ power but can offer the Red Sox a potential ready-made replacement under control through 2028 in Baty, who got his feet wet in the bigs in 2022 and has mashed Minor League pitching (a .315/.410/.533 slash line in Double-A/Triple-A last year). Tidwell, a second-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft, rounds out this particular proposal.
Perhaps the addition of another lower-tier prospect would be necessary for a player of Devers’ ilk. But the basic point is that if the Red Sox do find themselves in a position where Devers’ long-term fit comes into question, the Mets could make a perfect match.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-hot-stove-trade-proposals-2022
3. A major Dev-elopment
Mets get: 3B Rafael Devers
Red Sox get: 3B Brett Baty (Mets’ No. 2 prospect), RHP Blade Tidwell(No. 8), OF Nick Morabito (No. 14)
Boston ought to be able to lock up Devers with an extension. He is not expected to be traded. But if a deal somehow doesn’t get done? The Red Sox had better think hard about taking advantage of his value in this market before he enters his walk year.
The all-in Mets not only need Devers’ power but can offer the Red Sox a potential ready-made replacement under control through 2028 in Baty, who got his feet wet in the bigs in 2022 and has mashed Minor League pitching (a .315/.410/.533 slash line in Double-A/Triple-A last year). Tidwell, a second-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft, rounds out this particular proposal.
Perhaps the addition of another lower-tier prospect would be necessary for a player of Devers’ ilk. But the basic point is that if the Red Sox do find themselves in a position where Devers’ long-term fit comes into question, the Mets could make a perfect match.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-hot-stove-trade-proposals-2022
That would be tough to say no to. A possible future infield of Baty, Mayer, Yorke and Casas is pretty damn sweet.
If we can't resign Xander and Raffy, this is precisely what we should be looking at doing. I'd be very surprised to see the Mets give up Baty rather than locking him down long-term.
Sometimes Baseball Trade Values, which I assume inspired Jennings, doesn't quite pass the smell test.
I think a more realistic possibility is something like Walter and Duran for Barlow and Hunter Dozier. Dozier's contract is underwater the next two seasons ($7.25 million in 2023 and $9 million in 2024), but at a lower AAV ($6.25 million). As a RHH bat with experience at 1B, 3B, LF, and RF, he's actually a good fit for the Red Sox bench and seems like exactly the kind of bad contract to absorb in order to land a guy like Barlow.
While I'm on the topic, two other guys with bad contracts I would target as possible fits for the Red Sox bench:
Nick Ahmed, ARI: $10.38 million in 2023, $8.13 AAV, middle infield defense is always useful and he might make acquiring a young outfielder more realistic
Paul DeJong, STL: $9.17 million in 2023, $4.33 AAV, also a strong defender up the middle and the Cardinals could afford to give up a young outfielder or bullpen arm
Remember that under the new CBA all player AAVs recalculate to the remainder of the contract when the player is traded. These guys will hit the Sox LT number for more than they did their original team.
I think if the Sox fail to sign Xander…. Then this where they need to move with all players on the block- Devers, Pivetta and Verdugo are the only ones with high current value.
I’d start the season and hope Story, Kiké, Houck , etc… can build back up to their end of ‘21 value and deal them at midseason.
I’d hold onto basically Casas, Bello, Crawford and that’s it.
But really I just think getting X back is key. Add another OF by trade and another decent BP arm and I think they’re a 90-95 win team
It just changes the cost calculations. Overall though when we're talking about players who's contracts are under water, we're talking about absorbing players who aren't very good. I know this seems to be a good way to pry talent away from other clubs, but if this is the route the Sox are going I don't think it makes sense if we're looking at a short-term competitive window; if we are aiming to supplement X (hopefully?) and Devers in their primes for 2023 then the drag provided by those roster spots & payroll being staffed by below average players seems like an iffy bet.Good point, that changes the wisdom of my post considerably
It might make sense as a strategy to get prospects, but I'm honestly not sure about the Sox's talent analysis so far (this is something Bloom gets blamed for, but really it should only be as an umbrella charge against the talent evaluation team, which he's responsible for). I think quite a few of us here accepted the idea that Refroe was a candidate for regression, but I don't think very many people at all expected JBJ to provide much of anything. I'd be curious to see how JBJ (+ his $), Hamilton & Binelas stack up against a year of Refroe and what the Brewers got for him...
As a hypothetical counter, I'm assuming this means that if they don't re-sign X and don't also replace him with one of the other SS FAs...
The depressing thing is that if the Sox are not in contention in 2023, we're probably watching something similar to last season, where the players that they would trade don't have a lot value at the deadline.
Yes- assuming that means Arroyo at 2B and Story at SS.
But I disagree- I can see the team being .500 with the easier schedule and Kiké, etc…. All bringing back a decent return with even a heavily subsidized Sale ,Story and Eovaldi bringing back young ML talent.
Basically a season in which IF they had signed X and not traded Devers, they’d be deep in contention.
I just want to point out that the Mets have organizational trauma from trading Pete Crow-Armstrong for a Javy Baez rental in 2021 (details here: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/10/07/the-mets-were-even-bigger-trade-deadline-cowards-than-we-knew/) and almost certainly wouldn’t make that kind of deal for Devers.
Perhaps this sheds a little light on the rumored trade talks on JDM and/or Vazquez.
Interesting to see Benintendi return piece Khalil Lee mentioned in this as a not very good prospect. Luis De La Rosa, Grant Gambrell, and Freddy Valdez aren't looking like much either... At the Deadline I would've been happy to see JDM go for salary relief.
I was going to stay out of the trade proposal game, but I saw that the Dodgers have “shown interest” in Willy Adames, and this strikes me as something the Red Sox should also be in on (could this be the type of deal the Brewers make to rid themselves of the Yelich contract?). Luis Urias would work, too, he has that multi-positional ability everyone values.
Maybe something like:
Verdugo, Downs, and Barnes for Yelich, Adames, Williams, and a moderate contribution ($20m? $30m? $40m?) to Yelich's contract.
The Brewers have a SS in the high minors in Brice Turang who is a pretty good prospect, so something like this might actually make some sense for them. Downs doesn't have much value at this point, so he's not a huge part of the trade, but he can play a few months of steady SS and then get benched/DFA'd for Turang, with the small-but-real upside that he hits a bit in the NL Central and rebuilds some trade value given the opportunity.
Obviously the real benefit for them is getting out from Yelich's deal, which still has 5 years left at $26m per, plus a mutual option for 2029 and some deferrals. He has a full no-trade, but might welcome a move to Boston.
We get a good SS under control for two seasons — perfect for MM's timeline — in Adames, a much more expensive corner outfielder in Yelich, who has massive negative value because of his bonkers contract (but comparable *on-field* value to Verdugo — his OBPs and Exit Velos are still good-to-great, so he's not a lost cause, even if the rumors are that his elite 2018 and 2019 campaigns were aided by sign stealing), and a swap of late inning relievers that we get the much better end of (Devin Williams is just now arb eligible, and is... one of the very best relievers in baseball, with a 2.34 career FIP and and K/9 over 14), and give Milwaukee a chance to try to fix whatever ails Matt Barnes.
AAV ramifications, using MLBTR arb estimates:
(Xander walks -20m)
Downs -.7m
Verdugo ~-7m
Barnes -10.5m
$ from MIL -$X/5 (i.e. if they contribute $20m with Yelich, the CBT impact would be -$4m)
Yelich +27m (I think I've done the AAV correctly using the new rules)
Adames +~9m
Williams +~3m
So we swap SS, swap outfielders, and swap late-inning relievers and our CBT number would likely slightly decline year one, although obviously we take on a long-term commitment in Yelich. We become a slightly weaker offensive club, but a considerably better defensive one, with a lockdown closer/relief ace in Williams and a decent-bat, great-glove SS in Adames.
This trade would pair really well with FA signings of Aaron Judge and Kodai Senga, if we could pull that off, and we'd still have money to add a veteran DH bat (Michael Brantley on a 1/$10m?) and stay under the CBT threshold.
DH Brantley L
RF Judge R
3B Devers L
2B Story R
LF Yelich L
1B Casas L
CF Hernández R
C McGuire L
SS Adames R
Sale, Senga, Whitlock, Pivetta, Bello, Paxton (likely starting on the 60-day IL)
CL Williams R, RHSU Houck, RHSU Schreiber, LHSU Taylor (?), LHMR Rodriguez, RHMR Brasier, LHSW Crawford, RHSW Winckowski...
(I didn't include him here, but MIL are also one of the few teams for whom Hosmer might be a 1B upgrade.)