Interesting (to me anyway) that Duran is the only one on the list not slow as molasses.
Extreme Makeover: The Jarren Duran Edition
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
How many of Duran's doubles have been of the speed variety? It's a very exciting play to see him motor around 1B and power into 2B as the surprised OF suddenly hastens his pickup and throw. I cannot be happier for the guy, who most of us wrote off after last season. I think Cora and Duran's teammates played a big part in Duran unleashing his talent.
Tied for 6th in the AL with 25 doubles, despite only playing 64 games. (Corey Seager has 23 doubles in only 52 games!).
It's gonna be interesting. Last year at the trade deadline, Duran's value had plummeted to virtually nothing. The July before that, it was quite high. Now of course, it's higher than ever.
I griped a ton about him last year, but this version is a really good player (I think!). But is he our center fielder of the future, or is Rafaela?
The more I think about it, there could be no better time to decide than now. Duran, Rafaela and Verdugo are all at peak value, and we only have room for two of them, in some configuration.
Can Duran handle center field long term? (Maybe. He's +1 OAA this year)
Can Duran handle right field? (I think no, he's got a below average arm)
Should we play Duran in left field and DH Yoshida? (It's an option, but I think Yoshida can handle LF at least a couple more years)
Is Rafaela worth playing in right field? (the FO believes Fenway's RF requires a second center fielder, but I'm not sure the bat plays here)
Is Rafaela worth playing at shortstop? (in the short-term, sure. But Mayer could be ready mid-2024)
In my mind, Rafaela's defense and right-handed bat are pretty important to this team going forward. I really like Duran's game, but I certainly don't hate the idea of dangling him to Seattle for some of their pitching.
I griped a ton about him last year, but this version is a really good player (I think!). But is he our center fielder of the future, or is Rafaela?
The more I think about it, there could be no better time to decide than now. Duran, Rafaela and Verdugo are all at peak value, and we only have room for two of them, in some configuration.
Can Duran handle center field long term? (Maybe. He's +1 OAA this year)
Can Duran handle right field? (I think no, he's got a below average arm)
Should we play Duran in left field and DH Yoshida? (It's an option, but I think Yoshida can handle LF at least a couple more years)
Is Rafaela worth playing in right field? (the FO believes Fenway's RF requires a second center fielder, but I'm not sure the bat plays here)
Is Rafaela worth playing at shortstop? (in the short-term, sure. But Mayer could be ready mid-2024)
In my mind, Rafaela's defense and right-handed bat are pretty important to this team going forward. I really like Duran's game, but I certainly don't hate the idea of dangling him to Seattle for some of their pitching.
Maybe, but is that a great use of Rafaela, though? With Story, Arroyo (through ‘24), Valdez, Hamilton, and possibly Chang (through ‘25) on the 40-man opening 2024, and Mayer potentially up by August/September I don’t know if I love Rafaela on that bench. He needs PAs, I’d say, and the way to get them is by playing GG-caliber CF, even if it means his rookie year ends up looking like JBJ c. 2014.
If we have Rafaela with the flexibility to play MI we don't really need Arroyo for anything, or Chang.
Feels like we're solving a problem we don't really have yet by trading Duran or Verdugo right now. But I guess if the offers are such that they cannot refuse them. Don't see a need to actively shop them, though.
So Rafaela at SS and Story at 2B? Could work, though Cora has already said that Story is 100 percent his shortstop when healthy.
Either way, Mayer’s coming soon. He’s got a 138 wRC+ over his last 41 PAs, and positive indicators a lot longer than that. He’ll probably need about 350-500 more PAs in AA/AAA (like Henderson, De La Cruz, Carroll, McLain) which puts him on track for a late summer 2024 promotion, if healthy. That squeezes things again.
Do we trade one of Duran, Rafaela or Verdugo then?
Do we DH Yoshida and keep all three in the OF?
Hold off Mayer until 2025 and play Story/Rafaela in the middle infield?
How would a Verdugo extension change the outlook?
Any room for Valdez or Wilyer Abreu in that mix?
I’m not confident in my preference here but it’s an interesting problem to have.
Fair, and I agree. But his defense is reportedly quite major league-ready. What needs work is his chase rate, so he needs PAs. How does he get those?
It seems to me that CF is the most valuable place for him defensively. I’d prefer him starting there over SS, especially if Story is healthy. But now there’s Duran, who looks like he could be a MLB starting CF.
Isn’t the “solution” to not bother with all the Verdugo extension talk, and see where things stand a year from now? I don’t see any urgency to make a decision now.
I don't think there's any measure. Mayer is supposed to be a smooth fielder himself.
Meanwhile, Rafaela's plate approach is like a starving rat ripping at a garbage bag. He hasn't posted a BB rate above 8, nor one above 6% since rookie ball. He'll never get on base very much, but he hits the ball hard enough that it won't matter that much. I think he's a nice right-handed compliment to Duran and Verdugo, actually, and could play super-sub behind them and slot in at 2nd base as well. Duran and Verdugo both really struggle against LHP. Not much data on Ceddane's splits out there and limited PA appearances against LHP this year.
Maybe, but we also need to prepare ourselves for the eventuality that his plate approach is his plate approach. Some guys get more patient over time, and some guys hack and that's that.
His batting profile reminds me a lot of Josh Reddick. A lot of hard-hit balls, a lot of swinging, not an astronomical K rate.
I think that depends on whether the FO believes that 2023 is Verdugo's new baseline. It might be given that he just turned 27 and hitters tend to mature around that age.
You probably try to extend him now if you believe that. Otherwise, the price tag may go up if he repeats the feat in 2024 or improves on it. Then again, the team has a lot of money to spend coming up and maybe they don't mind the price tag going up some if they believe it is worth the price of waiting to see if he has a newer baseline.
The pre-2023 Verdugo is still worth extending at the right price IMHO....solid player. But 2023 version is a solid step up.
He has 16 more at bats at AAA than Mayer does.
More seriously, this is not that hard. If, by the end of the year, Rafaela is knocking on the door by showing some patience at AAA, he'll get a cup of coffee - especially if the Sox are out of it and have traded players like Duvall by August 1.
If he magically retools his bat this year and thus so is obviously the CF heir-apparent in 2024, you trade somebody in the off-season if everyone else is healthy/productive. Verdugo will have one year of control left - 2024, his age 28 season. But otherwise, health holding, the 2024 OF is: Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Refsnyder and maybe Rafaela. (Abreu in AAA.)
There's simply no need to do anything now.
Especially because we don't really have any other high-minors OF prospects beyond Rafaela and Abreu.
PS - this is awesome:
Yeah, Story 2B Rafaela SS.
If/when Mayer creates a crunch, Arroyo or Refsnyder probably become the odd man out, and Rafaela's flexibility means we don't have to make that decision based purely on positional need.
Story at SS...I think that's short term, likely this year and then they reassess the situation for '24. As for the OF situation (providing that we have the same guys next season) Yoshida/Duran/RFsnyder in LF, Duran/Rafaela in CF and Verdugo/RFsnyder in RF. MI trio of Story/Rafaela/Arroyo (or other). If Turner's back on a player option he resumes his present role, if not the other guys cycle through the DH slot. As for Valdez and Abreau, realistically speaking, what role would with play? RFsnyder has been extended and Valdez' bat isn't enough to elevate him over the other options that are available ATM, let alone if/when Story and Rafaela are on the same roster.
Aw. Thanks.
Meanwhile, the Duran BABIP watch continues: he's now sitting at .421. All I can say is: lol, lmao.
I can't imagine a universe in which it lasts, but it has been fun.
Valdez and Abreu can sit in Worcester as depth in such a scenario. Something else to keep in mind is Arroyo is a free agent after next year and Refsnyder only has a (cheap) club option for '25. So if Valdez and Abreu are pushing their way on to the big league roster by late next year, there are fairly easy paths to make room for them.
One way to play it, sure. But the risk here is that Duran turns into a pumpkin (again) and we’ve squandered another chance to trade a redundant asset at peak value.
I get that everyone has varying levels of faith in Duran, Rafaela, and Verdugo, but there’s never been a time when all three have been extremely valuable at once. Hence the — I wouldn’t say urgency, but opportunity.
Agreed, my point was basically looking at what we might expect to have in the fold to start next season. With that in mind, Valdez and Abreau aren't likely to displace anyone and their roles are probably the ones that they are presently playing.
I don't see how you don't do that. Story is likely still a +SS, and is certainly a +2B. Offensively, he's the first choice to fill one of those two slots.
So you just assess his parter. If it's an Arroyo or a Yorke or a Valdez type, you play Story at SS. If the best you can field (considering both offensive and defense) is a Chang type in 2024, you play Story at 2B.
Mayer is the SS in late 24 or 25. Story is your 2B.
Story is signed through 2027 (28 club option).
***
I think the OF works the same way. Yoshida is also signed for 2027. So he's LF/DH. Ideally you need a +CF (range wise) to pair with Yoshida, also a +ish RF, for Fenway. Right now, Duran in CF and Verdugo in RF (+ arm) seem to fit that pattern perfectly, with Refsnyder as a good defensive sub and lefty-killer.
Refsnyder is 32 with a deal for 2024, and Verdugo is 27 with one year of arb left.
Rafaela is a RHH OF with ++Range and a +arm - although in the high minors he's hit RHP better than LHP.
I'd expect him to regress as well - but the question is how much.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jarren-duran-680776?stats=gamelogs-r-hitting-mlb&season=2023
The pitch hilighter tool is interesting to look at. He's making plenty of IF outs - but he's also going up the middle a lot and eating up some fielders with his speed.
There is a very real chance Rafaela is a complete zero with the bat the major league level.
His defensive ability up the middle will carry him on rosters but the underlying stuff with the bat is horrific. He’d be a totally unicorn if his bat plays at the majors based on his chase rate. That had the change and it hasn’t in 3 years.
His defensive ability up the middle will carry him on rosters but the underlying stuff with the bat is horrific. He’d be a totally unicorn if his bat plays at the majors based on his chase rate. That had the change and it hasn’t in 3 years.
Are people mistakenly thinking Mayer is in AAA? He's in Portland. By any objective measure he's almost exactly a year behind Rafaela, but of course promotions are a lot more subjective than not.
Meh. They were at the same level until a week ago & if they were both promoted to the Red Sox tomorrow, Mayer would probably play better.
Maybe? They could also be on different paces. Here are the AA/AAA PAs of recent post-pandemic, Mayer-caliber, Mayer-aged prospects before their promotion.
Bobby Witt, Jr.: 279 PA in AA, 265 PA in AAA = 544
Riley Greene: 373 in AA, 260 in AAA = 633
Gunnar Henderson: 225 in AA, 295 in AAA = 520
Corbin Carroll: 277 in AA, 157 in AAA = 434
Anthony Volpe: 497 in AA, 99 in AAA = 596
Henry Davis: 323 in AA, 45 in AAA = 368
Elly De La Cruz: 207 in AA, 186 in AAA = 393
Jordan Walker: 536 in AA, 135 in AAA = 671
Triston Casas: 329 in AA, 359 in AAA = 688
Marcelo Mayer: 116 in AA (from 5/31 to 7/2)
Much depends on how he plays, but it seems like there’s a lot of recent precedent for promoting top prospects after, say, 550 PAs spread across both levels. Which, eyeballing it, Mayer would reach around this time next summer.
Rafaela’s track seems a little different. He’s already at 579 PAs in AA, and 17 in AAA. And I think it would come as quite a surprise if he were promoted this summer.
Doing something for the 1st time since Biggio is cool.
View: https://twitter.com/SoxNotes/status/1675875260216885251
View: https://twitter.com/SoxNotes/status/1675875260216885251
Maybe I missed the point that was being made. But Mayer is over 2 years younger than Rafaela, was the youngest AA player for the Red Sox since '09 & is a top 5 prospect in baseball, so yes, Rafaela was called up to AA like 50 weeks prior to Mayer, but they aren't the same type of player & they aren't on the same trajectory.
There's also value in keeping everyone and finding out who performs well. Then you're not stuck having to play a pumpkin or flameout if you traded the wrong one.
What would we even expect to get for Duran? I don't think he is going to bring back a top flight young pitcher. Who would trade for him? Seattle has Rodrigues in CF and Kelenic in LF. If Rafaela can hit MLB pitching, why not move him to RF and let Verdugo walk when he hits FA?
Just keep them. There’s a giant gap between Rafaela and any good OF prospects ETA. Most of the possible good OF’ers are 19 year olds unless they start turning some of the 20-21 year old corner IF’er types with questionable defensive skills into corner OF’ers.
Start ‘24 with
LF- Yoshida/ Duran
CF- Rafaela/Duran
RF- Verdugo/ RFsnyder
with Yoshi at DH 66% of the time, Rafaela 66% at Cf
Yoshida is -7.7 runs (-4 OAA). So despite putting up a 2.0 fWAR season with the bat he's at 1.2 fWAR overall. You don't trade anyone, use Rafaela's defense as an asset in CF, start Duran in LF most of the time, and DH Yoshida. Okay for Yoshida to play LF on occasion, particularly against LHPs (Yoshida's loses about .100 in OPS against LHPs...Duran loses .250).
Baseball trade value has him as the 2nd most valuable trade asset behind Mayer in the organization (roughly Daulton Varsho). According to the site, the Sox could get more than Bello for him.
5 and 1/2 years of control for even an average outfielder is ridiculously valuable - worth 12.5 mill in excess value so far in 233 PA alone. He is exactly what teams should want for this new era of speed and athleticism.
Not sure I buy that he's worth more than Bello but pitchers break.
To put some names out there as pitchers 27 and under in a vacuum taking away availability, Duran is roughly worth:
Braxton Garret
Reid Detmers
Freddie Peralta
Mitch Keller
Nick Lodolo
Pablo Lopez (incidentally, he (47.2) and Arraez (47.5) was rated as an even trade before factoring in teenage prospects, and he's close to Duran in value)
I don't really see any of those guys able to be pried away now, so I think your point stands that he may not be a pitching match for young guys.
Dylan Cease would take another decent prospect or two for 2.5 years of control.
The White Sox are a disaster right now with only a few big assets but OF is covered. So maybe he's someone they could look at moving anywhere this off season for different positions of need.
I wouldn't move Duran if this is his ceiling. They need cost controlled position players. And outfield is a weakness.
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Understanding that I see that you’re throwing out a name to further a conversation, I’d pass on Cease. His stat line from last year just screams career year to me. His BABIP was an outlier while his fly ball to grounder ratios were pretty much the same. On top of that, his k/9 has trended down the last three tears (this one included).
Apologies for the minor hijack. I’m intrigued, however, at the idea of using Duran as a trade chip and agree that his value is incredibly high for someone who will probably regress at some point. Problem is, we have no idea what his mean is.
Duran is now tied with Verdugo for the fWAR team batting leadership at 1.9 (Raffy at 1.7) with only 2/3 the PAs. He runs the bases like a demon, disrupting the opposition's fielders, but still needs much more flyball work. He's almost 27, and not arbitration eligible until 2026, free agency in 2029. If he can continue in this vein, he is our 2024 starting CFer. Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, (all LHHs) with RHHs Refsnyder and Rafaela filling the OF roster.
Definitely think this is ideal. If Cedanne gets some September action and doesn’t look overmatched then it could be the opening day ‘24 configuration. If he doesn’t get called up and/or looks overmatched then I suspect he’ll start in AAA until he forces the issue ( that nasty plate discipline issue) or there’s an injury
I would assume that speed guys tend to have higher than normal babip numbers. Obviously no as high as this, but surely markedly higher than a catcher, etc.
To add some data (-ish) to this (sample size of 1), Ichiro’s career babip was .338 compared to a mlb avg of .298 per BRef.
Totally. If you go back a couple pages in this thread (I think) there was a discussion about what was reasonable to expect, and around .330-.340 was the conclusion, allowing for outlier years of up to .400... His current numbers are ridiculous though.
This Duran trivia is definitely speed related...
Jarren Duran became the 5th Red Sox player to record 25 or more steals & 50 or more extra base hits in his 1st 162 Major League games...
... who were the first 4?
Jarren Duran became the 5th Red Sox player to record 25 or more steals & 50 or more extra base hits in his 1st 162 Major League games...
... who were the first 4?