Are people mistakenly thinking Mayer is in AAA? He's in Portland. By any objective measure he's almost exactly a year behind Rafaela, but of course promotions are a lot more subjective than not.
Maybe? They could also be on different paces. Here are the AA/AAA PAs of recent post-pandemic, Mayer-caliber, Mayer-aged prospects before their promotion.
Bobby Witt, Jr.: 279 PA in AA, 265 PA in AAA = 544
Riley Greene: 373 in AA, 260 in AAA = 633
Gunnar Henderson: 225 in AA, 295 in AAA = 520
Corbin Carroll: 277 in AA, 157 in AAA = 434
Anthony Volpe: 497 in AA, 99 in AAA = 596
Henry Davis: 323 in AA, 45 in AAA = 368
Elly De La Cruz: 207 in AA, 186 in AAA = 393
Jordan Walker: 536 in AA, 135 in AAA = 671
Triston Casas: 329 in AA, 359 in AAA = 688
Marcelo Mayer: 116 in AA (from 5/31 to 7/2)
Much depends on how he plays, but it seems like there’s a lot of recent precedent for promoting top prospects after, say, 550 PAs spread across both levels. Which, eyeballing it, Mayer would reach around this time next summer.
Rafaela’s track seems a little different. He’s already at 579 PAs in AA, and 17 in AAA. And I think it would come as quite a surprise if he were promoted this summer.