Extreme Makeover: The Jarren Duran Edition

soxhop411

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View: https://twitter.com/optastats/status/1651042008935407616?s=46

Tonight @RedSox center fielder Jarren Duran hit a grand slam in the 3rd inning. @Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins followed suit in the 9th inning.

It's the first time in MLB history that opposing center fielders each hit a grand slam in the same game.
This seems impossible to believe. Its not even a specific stat. Its just “opposing CF’s) to hit a grandslam in the same game
 

Daniel_Son

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Duran has really impressed so far this year. Making solid contact, acceptable defense. I didn't expect to see him him emerge as a viable outfielder this year (and granted, it's a very small sample size), but he's looked really good.
 

Looch

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View: https://twitter.com/optastats/status/1651042008935407616?s=46


This seems impossible to believe. Its not even a specific stat. Its just “opposing CF’s) to hit a grandslam in the same game
Seriously! Who would even think of exploring that as a research question because it’s totally worthless information. AI, bots, algorithms, etc. are going to continue to amaze us with random historical oddities that no one would ever give a crap about but nonetheless supply bizarre social media fodder.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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I saw this thread bumped and had a heart attack when I saw the title, thinking he’d been inexplicably sent down
 

chrisfont9

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Duran has really impressed so far this year. Making solid contact, acceptable defense. I didn't expect to see him him emerge as a viable outfielder this year (and granted, it's a very small sample size), but he's looked really good.
Nobody expected it, but he hit well in AAA after his demotion last year, after all of the things that went wrong, so it wasn't something to be ruled out.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He seems to have a much improved attitude… body language is different. I REALLY don’t like reading that sort of couch psychology but it really is noticeable…. Supposedly Verdugo and him got close and while Dugo has some warts…. One thing nobody can argue with is his attitude. He wants to win and plays hard every time out.
As far as Duran’s actual production though… it’s been great but I refuse to let myself get excited by it. I’ll need another month of good play - I don’t expect this recent stretch of clearly BABIP aided greatness.
 

lexrageorge

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Seriously! Who would even think of exploring that as a research question because it’s totally worthless information. AI, bots, algorithms, etc. are going to continue to amaze us with random historical oddities that no one would ever give a crap about but nonetheless supply bizarre social media fodder.
It's objectively a surprising historical oddity, given the ginormous number of baseball games that have occurred over multiple decades. And that there have been many outstanding offensive center fielders that have played during that time. Yes, the stat itself is meaningless, but at least some people will find it interesting.
 

nvalvo

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Duran's own interpretation of his different mindset seems pretty plausible: he said that in past call-ups, he was playing anxious that any mistake — a bad jump, a swing at a pitch in the dirt — would be criticized by his teammates. That kind of mindset becomes a kind of self-fulfilling situation, where you're so focused on not messing up that you inevitably mess up: you're so focused on not breaking the wrong way on a fly ball that you break a beat late on every fly ball.

But now he actually knows and is comfortable with his teammates and Cora, and knows that they won't be mad at him if he misplays a fly ball or strikes out in a big spot, so he can just play, and the guy who cracked a lot of top-100 prospect lists is actually who he is.
 

BringBackMo

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Duran's own interpretation of his different mindset seems pretty plausible: he said that in past call-ups, he was playing anxious that any mistake — a bad jump, a swing at a pitch in the dirt — would be criticized by his teammates. That kind of mindset becomes a kind of self-fulfilling situation, where you're so focused on not messing up that you inevitably mess up: you're so focused on not breaking the wrong way on a fly ball that you break a beat late on every fly ball.

But now he actually knows and is comfortable with his teammates and Cora, and knows that they won't be mad at him if he misplays a fly ball or strikes out in a big spot, so he can just play, and the guy who cracked a lot of top-100 prospect lists is actually who he is.
I missed those comments. Thanks for posting. My mind goes immediately to which teammate/s would have made him feel that way, even if unintentionally.

The two players no longer with the Sox this year who seem as though they could have affected team culture to this degree are X and JD. Am I missing other obvious candidates? Am I reading too much into the comments? I may well be and sort of hope I am. If I’m not, though, I believe and hope that X wouldn’t be involved in this kind of thing. But I’m not so sure about JD.

I’d simply assumed that Durran’s retooled swing had been the difference, but these comments suggest otherwise, at least to some degree. And I take him at his word. Whatever was going on previously must have really bothered him if he’s willing to credit the new culture with contributing to his success.
 

absintheofmalaise

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His entire career is a SSS, but so far this season he's a totally different hitter than he has been. And there's no way in Hell he can keep this up, but it's worth a look to see the difference. Others can post about his defense. I haven't seen him play this season.
His K and BB percentages are roughly the same as his past seasons, but you can really see the difference in his batted ball stats. Exit velocity has taken a jump. As has his line drive percentage. He's also squaring up on pitches more than he has in the past, with more hits up the middle. We'll see what happens after the scouting on him gets out and adjustments are made by Duran to the way he's pitched to. We can use these as a snapshot for later in the season.
From B-Ref.
64008
Baseball Savant has some great graphics for comparison.
BA
202364009 202264010
wOBA
202364011 202264012

Exit Velocity
202364014 202264016

Launch Angle
202364017 202264018
 

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Sin Duda

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BBM, let's put the onus squarely on Duran. He wasn't some first-round pick who everyone knew was going to make the Show in a few years. He was a 7th round pick with limited college success (only hit about .300) who made himself into a prospect by hitting well in the low minors. I recall he had some quick success when called up in 2021 but pitchers figured him out and his average plummeted to near the Mendoza line. Sure, he might have felt his teammates didn't really have his back, but he was also quoted as saying he played it as "Rookies should be seen and not heard", which was his own doing. No need to point fingers at anyone else. Duran himself would likely say it was on him more any teammate.
 

Rovin Romine

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It's objectively a surprising historical oddity, given the ginormous number of baseball games that have occurred over multiple decades. And that there have been many outstanding offensive center fielders that have played during that time. Yes, the stat itself is meaningless, but at least some people will find it interesting.
Pulled today from baseball-reference.

Major League Historical Totals (1876-present)

Years: 148
Games: 236,204
Runs: 2,125,342
At Bats: 15,957,322
Hits: 4,169,309
Home Runs: 328,272
Doubles: 711,026
Triples: 143,769
Stolen Bases: 326,858
Innings Pitched: 4,164,155
Strikeouts: 2,386,287
Walks: 1,478,357
Hit Batsmen: 120,063
Saves: 75,137
Errors: 548,456
Double Plays: 408,089
Players: 22,576
Managers: 816
 

YTF

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I may be misrembering, but wasn't there reports last season or the previous season that he resisted coaching on his approach at the plate? Whatever is going on with him, he seems to be a different guy and perhaps he's been humbled a bit since the Tapia little league home run that he facilitated and the fact the Tapia comes to town and pretty much takes his spot on the 26 man roster.
 

Bread of Yaz

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If he continues to produce offensively at a decent rate, what do folks expect will happen lineup-wise when Duvall returns?
 

TFisNEXT

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Duran's K rate is still brutal sitting at 30%. It's great that he's hitting the ball much harder when he makes contact, but that K number needs to come down if he's going to sustain being an above average hitter. I don't think we can expect him to continue barreling the ball at an 18% clip.

His K rate in AAA was down in the low 20s so getting it down to 23-25% isn't unreasonable which would help a lot.
 

Van Everyman

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I have only seen him in limited action this year, but the approach he took when he made the last out against Baltimore two nights ago was something I had never seen from him before. The Baltimore pitcher had been untouchable through the first two batters, he faced, and Duran clearly had made the decision to take him the other way instead of rolling it over. More experienced hitters were struggling with this, and had it not been for perfect defensive positioning he might’ve tied it up.

Agree with everyone that I have no idea if it’s sustainable, and Duran may find that shaking his anxiety-driven bad habits may be a hard thing to sustain. But it’s great to see so far at a time when the team really needs them to step up.
 

greenmountains

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I missed those comments. Thanks for posting. My mind goes immediately to which teammate/s would have made him feel that way, even if unintentionally.

The two players no longer with the Sox this year who seem as though they could have affected team culture to this degree are X and JD. Am I missing other obvious candidates? Am I reading too much into the comments? I may well be and sort of hope I am. If I’m not, though, I believe and hope that X wouldn’t be involved in this kind of thing. But I’m not so sure about JD.

I’d simply assumed that Durran’s retooled swing had been the difference, but these comments suggest otherwise, at least to some degree. And I take him at his word. Whatever was going on previously must have really bothered him if he’s willing to credit the new culture with contributing to his success.
It's from an article in the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/4434579/2023/04/20/jarren-duran-second-chance-red-sox/

The biggest difference Duran feels in himself, though, has been his mental approach. Last season he was afraid to make mistakes and the pressure compounded on him. This year, he’s tried to lean on his teammates and coaches more.​

“I think I’m just being more open, hanging out with my teammates and talking more to them and not trying to avoid them being the annoying rookie,” he said. “Talking to Kiké (Hernández) all the time, he’s taken me under his wing and I appreciate it. I’ve got JT (Justin Turner) and (Trevor Story) and Rob (Refsnyder), I’ve got all these guys taking me under their wing.​

“They told me to play and just relax and if I make a mistake, they’ll have my back, and I feel that loosens guys up.”​

Duran knew last year was headed in the wrong direction, but once it started he couldn’t put the brakes on the downward spiral, as every mistake was magnified. This spring, he’s tried to embrace his own humanity, knowing that there will be mistakes and rough patches and that he’ll get past them when they come.​

“If I swing at a ball in the dirt, they don’t care,” he said. “I used to think it was the end of the world if I did something bad, that they were going to be mad at me, but they’ve been behind me 100 percent and I’m thankful.”​

I think it's clear that it wasn't anyone else but him.

(I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post that much....delete if I've over done it).
 

Rovin Romine

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His entire career is a SSS, but so far this season he's a totally different hitter than he has been.
His plate discipline numbers from Savant suggest he's less aggressive - fewer first pitch swings, chasing less. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jarren-duran-680776?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#plate_discipline

His pitch type results are interesting too. 2022 suggests he was hunting fastballs. This year he's effective against fastballs, but is crushing almost everything else.
 

BringBackMo

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BBM, let's put the onus squarely on Duran. He wasn't some first-round pick who everyone knew was going to make the Show in a few years. He was a 7th round pick with limited college success (only hit about .300) who made himself into a prospect by hitting well in the low minors. I recall he had some quick success when called up in 2021 but pitchers figured him out and his average plummeted to near the Mendoza line. Sure, he might have felt his teammates didn't really have his back, but he was also quoted as saying he played it as "Rookies should be seen and not heard", which was his own doing. No need to point fingers at anyone else. Duran himself would likely say it was on him more any teammate.
I don’t understand your response at all. I’m not sure many here have followed his ascent through the system more closely than I have. I have posted previously about his work ethic, his troubles that were exposed in AA, his retooling of his swing there to tap into power, his success in AAA following that retooling, his struggling when he reached the majors and more advanced pitching, and how his making the major leagues at all was a success story reflecting positively on both him and the Sox regardless of his numbers. This was a somewhat flawed prospect who never stopped working, and the Sox continued to work with him. Now he has retooled his approach yet again and is rolling and, according the the summary of his comments that was posted here, he is saying that his early experiences in the majors were defined by a fear of failing because his teammates would criticize his mistakes, but now that he knows and likes his teammates, he no longer feels that pressure. Am I wrong to interpret those comments as him saying that things are better now vis-a-vis his teammates? Perhaps I am, as I stated in my post. But I don’t think it’s a crazy question to ask.
 

Fishy1

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Duran's K rate is still brutal sitting at 30%. It's great that he's hitting the ball much harder when he makes contact, but that K number needs to come down if he's going to sustain being an above average hitter. I don't think we can expect him to continue barreling the ball at an 18% clip.

His K rate in AAA was down in the low 20s so getting it down to 23-25% isn't unreasonable which would help a lot.
Yeah, I agree this is definitely a concern - but if SSS applies to his barrel rate and LD%, it also applies here. If he'd struck out two fewer times he'd be at 25%, and I remember at least one AB where he got jobbed by the ump on a ball away.

Overall I think his approach has seemed much better and I'm ecstatic about how hard he's hitting the ball. At AAA this year he'd walked 10 times in 51 PA. Obviously that's not happening right now in the big leagues, but his appraoch does seem better. Hope he keeps it up for a while.
 

Rovin Romine

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I may be misrembering, but wasn't there reports last season or the previous season that he resisted coaching on his approach at the plate? Whatever is going on with him, he seems to be a different guy and perhaps he's been humbled a bit since the Tapia little league home run that he facilitated and the fact the Tapia comes to town and pretty much takes his spot on the 26 man roster.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jarren-duran-brings-new-swing-to-spring/
This spring, Duran has shifted his hand position prior to the pitch, starting with his hands closer to where he wants them to begin his swing and cutting out a noisy loading motion he had used previously. This has the effect of shortening and simplifying his swing, allowing him to throw the barrel into the zone basically straight from his stance position instead of having to wind his hands back to load his swing. His shoulders appear to be more square to the plate instead of closed off to the pitcher as they’ve been in years past. Following the pattern of simplifying the load, he’s turned what was at times a dramatic leg kick into a quick toe tap.

The message here seems to be: get your hands to the ball and put it in play. With his speed, Duran is able to do a lot of damage when he gets the chance to run the bases. But his elevated swing-and-miss figures at the big league level haven’t given him much chance to do so. In 2020, Duran and the Red Sox lowered his hands to start as part of a swing redesign documented by Eric Longenhagen here. This helped him run into some power in Triple-A in 2021, when he went deep 16 times in 60 games. But at the big league level, it left him with a long swing vulnerable to a lot of whiffs; his strikeout rate over his first 91 major league games is over 30%.
 

DJnVa

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I missed those comments. Thanks for posting. My mind goes immediately to which teammate/s would have made him feel that way, even if unintentionally.

The two players no longer with the Sox this year who seem as though they could have affected team culture to this degree are X and JD
I don't think I would read those comments as Duran saying there was any issue with *specific* teammates or culture, just had he was putting pressure on himself. I wouldn't surmise it has anything to do with guys who left.
 

rodderick

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I'm bullish because the change in production has been preceded by a change in stance and approach. Still think he'll always have strike out issues, but if he can hit the ball hard when he makes contact and is an average defender in center, his speed will play. That's a very useful player, even if the rate with which he's been scorching baseballs is completely unsustainable.
 

TFisNEXT

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Yeah, I agree this is definitely a concern - but if SSS applies to his barrel rate and LD%, it also applies here. If he'd struck out two fewer times he'd be at 25%, and I remember at least one AB where he got jobbed by the ump on a ball away.

Overall I think his approach has seemed much better and I'm ecstatic about how hard he's hitting the ball. At AAA this year he'd walked 10 times in 51 PA. Obviously that's not happening right now in the big leagues, but his appraoch does seem better. Hope he keeps it up for a while.
Yeah we're inherently discussing SSS when we look at anything here in 2023 with Duran. K rates tend to start normalizing pretty quick when you pass 100 PAs so we'll see how his numbers look in another 3-4 weeks. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't hoping to see better contact numbers when looking under the hood at his fast start. But none of us would complain if he starts morphing into Julio Rodriguez....who is another high K/hard contact type hitter of similar build. Duran showed signs of this in AAA the past two years with those pretty big ISO numbers which was a major step up compared to his lower minor league power numbers.
 

BringBackMo

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I don't think I would read those comments as Duran saying there was any issue with *specific* teammates or culture, just had he was putting pressure on himself. I wouldn't surmise it has anything to do with guys who left.
Poking around a bit more, I suspect that you are correct. I found these quotes from a story posted yesterday:

“Just my teammates. Being more open to talking to guys and not feeling like I’m bothering them and then being very open,” Duran said, per NESN. “Like (Justin Turner) and (Alex Verdugo) and (Kiké Hernández) really helping me out, telling me to keep working, keep working hard. Even when I mess up, they tell, ‘Hey man, it’s baseball, it happens.’ So just having those guys backing me up feels really good.”

It does seem to be more a case of teammates being more actively supportive of him this year than a case of anyone going out of their way to criticize him the past couple of years. I formally withdraw an concerns I may have previously expressed.
 

Fishy1

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Yeah we're inherently discussing SSS when we look at anything here in 2023 with Duran. K rates tend to start normalizing pretty quick when you pass 100 PAs so we'll see how his numbers look in another 3-4 weeks. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't hoping to see better contact numbers when looking under the hood at his fast start. But none of us would complain if he starts morphing into Julio Rodriguez....who is another high K/hard contact type hitter of similar build. Duran showed signs of this in AAA the past two years with those pretty big ISO numbers which was a major step up compared to his lower minor league power numbers.
Yeah, the exit velocity on display so far as been ridiculous. It will come down, but 95 mph is juicy, Devers territory. I'd do more comparisons but fangraphs is down presently
 

BringBackMo

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I'm bullish because the change in production has been preceded by a change in stance and approach. Still think he'll always have strike out issues, but if he can hit the ball hard when he makes contact and is an average defender in center, his speed will play. That's a very useful player, even if the rate with which he's been scorching baseballs is completely unsustainable.
Especially since he will remain quite affordable throughout his prime. He's in his age 26 season and still has two more pre-arbitration years after this one. There's no guarantee that he'll perform well enough to remain on the roster, but I agree that there is reason for optimism.
 

sezwho

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BBM, let's put the onus squarely on Duran. He wasn't some first-round pick who everyone knew was going to make the Show in a few years. He was a 7th round pick with limited college success (only hit about .300) who made himself into a prospect by hitting well in the low minors. I recall he had some quick success when called up in 2021 but pitchers figured him out and his average plummeted to near the Mendoza line. Sure, he might have felt his teammates didn't really have his back, but he was also quoted as saying he played it as "Rookies should be seen and not heard", which was his own doing. No need to point fingers at anyone else. Duran himself would likely say it was on him more any teammate.
While finger pointing at him is certainly important, I think it’s also important for organizations to recognize that integrating young players is complex and worth paying attention to. There are all kinds of cultural artifacts in baseball (did Duran manufacture this silent rookies idea from whole cloth?) and the org wins if they do.

Anyway, I’m really glad to see him having success and a bit chagrined at my reaction to his play last year.
 

nvalvo

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I missed those comments. Thanks for posting. My mind goes immediately to which teammate/s would have made him feel that way, even if unintentionally.

The two players no longer with the Sox this year who seem as though they could have affected team culture to this degree are X and JD. Am I missing other obvious candidates? Am I reading too much into the comments? I may well be and sort of hope I am. If I’m not, though, I believe and hope that X wouldn’t be involved in this kind of thing. But I’m not so sure about JD.

I’d simply assumed that Durran’s retooled swing had been the difference, but these comments suggest otherwise, at least to some degree. And I take him at his word. Whatever was going on previously must have really bothered him if he’s willing to credit the new culture with contributing to his success.
I don’t think he was saying that his past fears of recriminations were justified. He’s saying that he was scared about it, and it made him play badly. It sounded more like what he was saying was that he *did* mess up, and his teammates remained supportive, and that helped him get past his fears and reach a more positive mindset. So I don’t think there’s any call for an inquisition.

Edit: I see after posting that you tracked down the quote and figured this out on your own.
 

chrisfont9

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I missed those comments. Thanks for posting. My mind goes immediately to which teammate/s would have made him feel that way, even if unintentionally.

The two players no longer with the Sox this year who seem as though they could have affected team culture to this degree are X and JD. Am I missing other obvious candidates? Am I reading too much into the comments? I may well be and sort of hope I am. If I’m not, though, I believe and hope that X wouldn’t be involved in this kind of thing. But I’m not so sure about JD.

I’d simply assumed that Durran’s retooled swing had been the difference, but these comments suggest otherwise, at least to some degree. And I take him at his word. Whatever was going on previously must have really bothered him if he’s willing to credit the new culture with contributing to his success.
JD and X don't seem like bad guys but we know X was feeling immense pressure last year and JD was probably stressed about his performance too. Plus the extra layer of stress caused by the team's struggles... my guess is it wasn't anything intentional but just an all around bad environment. Who knows? Anyway things are different and he is too, so here's to fresh starts.

As to resisting coaching, isn't that about half of all players? Nobody likes to change things up unless they have to, and guys need more than a couple at bats before they accept the idea that they have to.
 
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I don't think anyone realistically expects Duran to keep a 1.05 ops, but he really doesn't have to in order to be very valuable. An OPS of .850 would put him in the top tier of MLB CF offensively.

His wOBA is only slightly lower than his xwOBA. His xwOBACON is stratospheric and clearly the product of a hot streak. No doubt pitchers will adjust. But right now he is so far exceeding what he needs to be doing that I'm hopeful that when he comes back to earth he will still land in a good spot. Of course this could be a Dalbec 2.0 situation, but the overall profile makes me more hopeful.
 

Daniel_Son

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Yeah we're inherently discussing SSS when we look at anything here in 2023 with Duran. K rates tend to start normalizing pretty quick when you pass 100 PAs so we'll see how his numbers look in another 3-4 weeks. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't hoping to see better contact numbers when looking under the hood at his fast start. But none of us would complain if he starts morphing into Julio Rodriguez....who is another high K/hard contact type hitter of similar build. Duran showed signs of this in AAA the past two years with those pretty big ISO numbers which was a major step up compared to his lower minor league power numbers.
FWIW, Statcast has his most similar hitters as Jace Peterson, Tommy Pham, and Randy Arozerena. I think that's a pretty interesting spectrum and I'd certainly be thrilled with the latter two under cheap team control for the next 5ish years.
 

Rovin Romine

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As to resisting coaching, isn't that about half of all players? Nobody likes to change things up unless they have to, and guys need more than a couple at bats before they accept the idea that they have to.
Check out the article I linked to upthread. Duran adopted his 2020-2022 swing either at the request of the Sox or with their blessing and oversight. (He also moved from CF to the OF at the request of the Sox.) So it seems like he was completely open to coaching, perhaps to his detriment.

The kid may be a chuckle-head (and I'm fine judging him on that basis) but let's not entertain any groundless memes to his detriment.

PS - if he did actually resist coaching and there's an article/reporting to that effect - fair game obviously.
 

chrisfont9

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Check out the article I linked to upthread. Duran adopted his 2020-2022 swing either at the request of the Sox or with their blessing and oversight. (He also moved from CF to the OF at the request of the Sox.) So it seems like he was completely open to coaching, perhaps to his detriment.

The kid may be a chuckle-head (and I'm fine judging him on that basis) but let's not entertain any groundless memes to his detriment.

PS - if he did actually resist coaching and there's an article/reporting to that effect - fair game obviously.
Yeah, I was responding to someone else's suggestion on that point. Moving on...
 

shaggydog2000

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I don't think anyone realistically expects Duran to keep a 1.05 ops, but he really doesn't have to in order to be very valuable. An OPS of .850 would put him in the top tier of MLB CF offensively.

His wOBA is only slightly lower than his xwOBA. His xwOBACON is stratospheric and clearly the product of a hot streak. No doubt pitchers will adjust. But right now he is so far exceeding what he needs to be doing that I'm hopeful that when he comes back to earth he will still land in a good spot. Of course this could be a Dalbec 2.0 situation, but the overall profile makes me more hopeful.
He also has a BABIP of .524, and even if that has been deserved based on how he has hit balls so far, we know it's impossible to sustain. So what does that look like when it falls back to a normal range? Do the strikeouts catch up with him? Does the power drop off as well? Or does he just keep on rolling, just with a lower batting average. Who knows? But it's definitely better than starting the year on a massive cold streak, and earns him a chance to prove he can sustain some good number overall.
 

chrisfont9

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He also has a BABIP of .524, and even if that has been deserved based on how he has hit balls so far, we know it's impossible to sustain. So what does that look like when it falls back to a normal range? Do the strikeouts catch up with him? Does the power drop off as well? Or does he just keep on rolling, just with a lower batting average. Who knows? But it's definitely better than starting the year on a massive cold streak, and earns him a chance to prove he can sustain some good number overall.
He played 139 games in AAA, so maybe that's what he looks like when he settles into a normal range? In that time he batted .266 with .353/.498/.851 OPS, and his value goes up from there with 36 steals on an 86% success rate (but then maybe drops for defensive issues). That's probably just a ceiling, but it's a high ceiling. As noted above, his K rate is up so if he doesn't reduce the Ks, then his ML numbers won't hit the ceiling.
 

shaggydog2000

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He played 139 games in AAA, so maybe that's what he looks like when he settles into a normal range? In that time he batted .266 with .353/.498/.851 OPS, and his value goes up from there with 36 steals on an 86% success rate (but then maybe drops for defensive issues). That's probably just a ceiling, but it's a high ceiling. As noted above, his K rate is up so if he doesn't reduce the Ks, then his ML numbers won't hit the ceiling.
An .851 OPS would have tied him for 16th highest in the MLB among qualified hitters last year. I severely doubt that is his normal in the majors. Even claiming that as his ceiling, if you mean the 90th percentile outcome for him is doing that on a regular basis in his prime, is incredibly high. I have my doubts about that.
 

sezwho

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An .851 OPS would have tied him for 16th highest in the MLB among qualified hitters last year. I severely doubt that is his normal in the majors. Even claiming that as his ceiling, if you mean the 90th percentile outcome for him is doing that on a regular basis in his prime, is incredibly high. I have my doubts about that.
Still fun to dream on a '24 team where he's in 800 OPS range with all those other tools. OF in particular looks a lot better, and still inexpensive, with him in it.

1B Casas
2B Story
SS eventually Mayer
3B Devers
LF Masataka
CF Duran
RF Verdugo
DH could be a rotation or a dedicated masher.

Side note, I know Refsnyder is not exactly projectable @ 32, but he's looking welcome to keep hitting against lefties next year.
 

chrisfont9

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An .851 OPS would have tied him for 16th highest in the MLB among qualified hitters last year. I severely doubt that is his normal in the majors. Even claiming that as his ceiling, if you mean the 90th percentile outcome for him is doing that on a regular basis in his prime, is incredibly high. I have my doubts about that.
By ceiling I mean ceiling, nothing more or less. He has a floor too. Where he lands is likely somewhere in between, but who knows? I'm not about to dismiss his upside right now. What we do know is that he can drive the ball, walk a bit, and run really fast, both on balls in play and steal attempts. Those are actual skills that translated at AAA. As I mentioned, the K rate is up, so if you want to start applying a major league discount to his AAA stats, there it is.
 
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shaggydog2000

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Still fun to dream on a '24 team where he's in 800 OPS range with all those other tools. OF in particular looks a lot better, and still inexpensive, with him in it.

1B Casas
2B Story
SS eventually Mayer
3B Devers
LF Masataka
CF Duran
RF Verdugo
DH could be a rotation or a dedicated masher.

Side note, I know Refsnyder is not exactly projectable @ 32, but he's looking welcome to keep hitting against lefties next year.
It would be great. I just think a lot of people (including me pretty often) have not properly calibrated their expectations in terms of offensive numbers. Some of it was that we had incredible offensive players during the peak offensive number years.
 

chrisfont9

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Still fun to dream on a '24 team where he's in 800 OPS range with all those other tools. OF in particular looks a lot better, and still inexpensive, with him in it.

1B Casas
2B Story
SS eventually Mayer
3B Devers
LF Masataka
CF Duran
RF Verdugo
DH could be a rotation or a dedicated masher.

Side note, I know Refsnyder is not exactly projectable @ 32, but he's looking welcome to keep hitting against lefties next year.
And this is before they start spending any of their FA flexibility.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Still fun to dream on a '24 team where he's in 800 OPS range with all those other tools. OF in particular looks a lot better, and still inexpensive, with him in it.

1B Casas
2B Story
SS eventually Mayer
3B Devers
LF Masataka
CF Duran
RF Verdugo
DH could be a rotation or a dedicated masher.

Side note, I know Refsnyder is not exactly projectable @ 32, but he's looking welcome to keep hitting against lefties next year.
You mean the DH could also be in the rotation. Ohtani seems pretty dedicated ;-)
 

GB5

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Aug 26, 2013
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Is there any generally accepted exchange rate between AAA and MLB. For instance an .851 OPS in AAA translates into an estimate of ?? In MLB
 

Jason Bae

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His entire career is a SSS, but so far this season he's a totally different hitter than he has been. And there's no way in Hell he can keep this up, but it's worth a look to see the difference. Others can post about his defense. I haven't seen him play this season.
His K and BB percentages are roughly the same as his past seasons, but you can really see the difference in his batted ball stats. Exit velocity has taken a jump. As has his line drive percentage. He's also squaring up on pitches more than he has in the past, with more hits up the middle. We'll see what happens after the scouting on him gets out and adjustments are made by Duran to the way he's pitched to. We can use these as a snapshot for later in the season.
From B-Ref.
View attachment 64008
Baseball Savant has some great graphics for comparison.
BA
2023View attachment 64009 2022View attachment 64010
wOBA
2023View attachment 64011 2022View attachment 64012

Exit Velocity
2023View attachment 64014 2022View attachment 64016

Launch Angle
2023View attachment 64017 2022View attachment 64018
He's also lowered his SwStr% to 9.5% (career 12.9%) and he's swinging at fewer outside pitches (27.6% so far; career 34.7% O-Swing%).
 

chrisfont9

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Is there any generally accepted exchange rate between AAA and MLB. For instance an .851 OPS in AAA translates into an estimate of ?? In MLB
Well you could look at any of the preseason projections, ZIPS at Fangraphs or PECOTA at Baseball Prospectus, which include predictions at the ML level for guys in the minors. They are all individual projections, I don't think anyone would ever try to apply an across-the-board thing along the lines of your question.

ZIPS for Duran: .251/.308/.406 (.714 OPS), 1.9WAR, although 1.5 of that is baserunning.
 
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Benj4ever

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Nov 21, 2022
386
He seems to have a much improved attitude… body language is different. I REALLY don’t like reading that sort of couch psychology but it really is noticeable…. Supposedly Verdugo and him got close and while Dugo has some warts…. One thing nobody can argue with is his attitude. He wants to win and plays hard every time out.
As far as Duran’s actual production though… it’s been great but I refuse to let myself get excited by it. I’ll need another month of good play - I don’t expect this recent stretch of clearly BABIP aided greatness.
Hit a lot of line drives and you get a high BABIP. Not saying he'll keep this up, but I'd say that his success to this point is genuine.