Extreme Makeover: The Jarren Duran Edition
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More than halfway through the season, Jarren Duran has a higher OPS and higher SLG than Rafael Devers without a known injury being responsible. If anyone in the world called that before the season started I'd be completely shocked!
Seriously though, the emergence of Duran has got to be one of the brightest points in the season. He's gone from a consensus lost cause with maybe only a sliver of trade value left to a likely very solid starter. He's clearly not going to sustain his current level, but he could lose 80 to 150 points of OPS and still have very real value. The fact that the league adjusted to him and he's successfully adjusted back is huge, and demonstrates that this improvement is almost certainly real even if his actual numbers are inflated by an unsustainable BABIP. Barring injury I'd be really surprised if he cratered back to where he was at the end of last season.
Seriously though, the emergence of Duran has got to be one of the brightest points in the season. He's gone from a consensus lost cause with maybe only a sliver of trade value left to a likely very solid starter. He's clearly not going to sustain his current level, but he could lose 80 to 150 points of OPS and still have very real value. The fact that the league adjusted to him and he's successfully adjusted back is huge, and demonstrates that this improvement is almost certainly real even if his actual numbers are inflated by an unsustainable BABIP. Barring injury I'd be really surprised if he cratered back to where he was at the end of last season.
I love his breakout too, but having a potential #1 starter would be my luminary.
I fully understand the sentiment and can't question what you say. For myself, it's the sum of Duran, Bello, Verdugo, Yoshida, Paxton, Wong and recently improved Casas that's got me excited.
This comment seems like a good time to note that we are exactly one month away (Aug 8) from the 50th anniversary of a Red Sox DH getting four doubles in a game -- a feat that was most improbable, given his (lack) of mobility.
Orlando Cepeda
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Can't argue with Bello's breakout being the best story for the Red Sox this year so far. Duran's emergence should get some extra points for brightness due to its sheer surprise.
Totally fair. Many were high on Bello, and likely as many had pretty much given up on Duran.
Cha Cha!
I remember the dugout shot of the guys laughing after one of them, probably the third or fourth
Who’s got the silver bullet talking point for my friend who says Jarren’s juicing this year? Dude dropped a turd in the middle of my punch bowl tonight with that one. He’s a Sox fan and calls it “Judge Juice.”
For my own part, I was ready to buy ‘22 Duran’s ticket out of Dodge after the ugly ITPHR misplay followed by graceless interview, but that’s all been eclipsed by my utter admiration for his extraordinary resilience and determination.
For my own part, I was ready to buy ‘22 Duran’s ticket out of Dodge after the ugly ITPHR misplay followed by graceless interview, but that’s all been eclipsed by my utter admiration for his extraordinary resilience and determination.
He certainly is jacked but I don’t think so. His success seems linked to a change of approach, specifically squaring up line drives over hitting fly balls for power.
Duran’s average fly ball distance is a well
below average 296 ft. (leaguewide average is 316 ft.). I don’t know what all the different types of steroids do, but I’d think that would be higher if he were juicing.
Excellent retorts, I thank you. Especially the below average fly ball distance. Just from my limited observation, his legs are a big, big part of what’s making his offensive play so special this year — and I’ve always understood that as a natural attribute, rather than PED-affected. Give me the doubles and the Pete Rose overdrive on the basepaths and I could care less about the number of home runs out of a center fielder.
Edit; A provocateur and chucklehead, he’ll take a deep relish in having a comeback for absolutely everything — testing included. But I’m glad for the new arrows in my quiver. Cheers.
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Your friend must have missed all those reports about Duran’s dad. It’s been pretty well-documented that he is huge into weight lifting. Duran’s muscular physique is nothing new.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/19/sports/red-sox-star-prospect-jarren-duran-took-his-fathers-advice-hit-gym-became-different-hitter/
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/06/19/sports/red-sox-star-prospect-jarren-duran-took-his-fathers-advice-hit-gym-became-different-hitter/
But they're in last place. As @JohnMarzanoOlympicHero says that will be 3 last place finishes in 4 years. I am pleased we've had so much development this year but there are fans who will be disappointed if the team finishes in last place again. I would be extremely happy if Bello really does develop into an ace and Duran becomes an All Star centerfielder. Sometimes you have to take a step back to take a step forward. I think Duran uses the failure of 2022 to motivate him in 2023. Maybe Jared would not be as good as he is this year if he did not have the failures last year.
The only reason why I qualified it is Bello. As others have said, Bello was much more expected but nevertheless seeing it actually happen has been great, and I think a bit less of Bello's breakout has been due to luck vs Duran. But I wouldn't begrudge anyone being super excited about Duran either.
I apologize if this constitutes backseat modding and will be happy to desist, but is it really necessary to bring the team's record up in a discussion about player development in a thread about a specific player? We're all aware that the team is in last place with a little less than half the season to go. We're all aware that there are fans out there that are disappointed by this. Bringing it up here and at this point in the discussion feels like the fun police is arriving to let us know that we're showing insufficient pessimism by the team. Totally agree about the other stuff though, although it may not be consistent with Duran's narrative which seems to be focused on the mental shifts that came with having some experience under his belt. That said, I'd have a hard time believing that any prospect who believes that he has a real shot at the MLB wouldn't be motivated to improve after struggling initially and getting sent down. At that point it would be like giving up in the last mile of a marathon. I'm sure that happens sometimes, but I doubt it's often.
Bello’s emergence is more important (a home grown ace would be so huge for this franchise) but Duran’s breakout was definitely more unexpected.
So I can see how that might create more excitement in the short term since nobody was expecting it.
It's nice that we can actually discuss which prospect is more exciting vs which one sucks more.
If PEDs didn't make you faster, why would so many sprinters have gotten busted for them? And yes, lots of people who are now confirmed to have been using PEDs passed lots of tests, so I don't find that proof of much either. But I don't see much to in his numbers to show some PED driven change in his stats unless this dude thinks HGH gives you a higher BABIP.
But to be more precise, they are in last place in the American League East, an extraordinarily stacked division. Were the Sox in the Central they would be in first place, and if in the West it would be second place.
I am not saying "no problems here folks." Rather that using the standings in the AL East as the single standard for judgement (as that particular posts seems to do) may lead to more misunderstanding about the Sox condition that understanding.
Duran's average sprint speed per statcast is 29.3, 29.2, 29.4 over the last 3 seasons. The speed isn't new.
Cross-posting:
Duran is rapidly becoming my favorite player to watch on the Sox. While players like Devers and Verdugo are obviously very good, Duran feels like the only player on the Red Sox who comes across like a real elite athlete--like I could see him playing wide receiver for the Patriots. I love his aggression on the base paths and he plays with a freedom that I don't we have seen in an every day player since Mookie was traded. He's been a total joy this season.
Duran is rapidly becoming my favorite player to watch on the Sox. While players like Devers and Verdugo are obviously very good, Duran feels like the only player on the Red Sox who comes across like a real elite athlete--like I could see him playing wide receiver for the Patriots. I love his aggression on the base paths and he plays with a freedom that I don't we have seen in an every day player since Mookie was traded. He's been a total joy this season.
Couldn’t a decent percentage of the absurdly high BABIP have to do with beating out ground balls to the infield, contact that would normally result in an out? I’m not skilled enough to isolate something like that, but Iggy’s speed down to first was a part of his extraordinary BABIP, as well, if I recall correctly. And yes, you raise a good point about juicing sprinters.
He’s been fun as hell.
Interesting numbers, BABIP is clearly high, but all he’s been doing is slashing line drives the last month, which not only help vs fly balls, but likely explain his “average fly ball distance” being lower than the MLB average. I’ll take that squaring up over Casas lazy pop-up doubles any day.
Duran is the most exciting player since Dreamboat.
Interesting numbers, BABIP is clearly high, but all he’s been doing is slashing line drives the last month, which not only help vs fly balls, but likely explain his “average fly ball distance” being lower than the MLB average. I’ll take that squaring up over Casas lazy pop-up doubles any day.
Duran is the most exciting player since Dreamboat.
Compared to last year, Duran’s BB rates and K rates are pretty similar, and worse than MLB averages. While his BABIP is 130 points higher than the MLB norm and what he did last year- he is hitting the ball hard- 46% hard hit and 31% line drive (38% and 17% last year, and 39% and 24% mlb average). Above average exit velocity too.
So yeah, his BABIP cannot remain at .430 but he should still remain a useful player if he keeps hitting the ball hard.
So yeah, his BABIP cannot remain at .430 but he should still remain a useful player if he keeps hitting the ball hard.
I find that most people who consider themselves a “provocateur” are just assholes. And I find that people who take pleasure in being assholes aren’t worth spending a minute of time with. Life is too short for insincere bullshit.
More to the point re: Duran… if one is going to cry “drugs!” For every player who improves then what’s the point of following sports? I suppose Bello, Paxton and Verdugo are all on drugs too?
Basically, yes. As was noted several pages back a few times, a BABIP at .400 is sustainable over the course of a season, but beyond that... at .426 -- for their career, even fast skilled hitters don't tend to be very far north of .330-.340. The liners go for outs sometimes. The defense makes a play.
Over the course of a season, a skilled enough hitter might be around .400 for his BABIP, even if they're not that fast -- Ichiro hit .400 for BABIP once and was close a few others times, Joey Votto did it once, Manny Ramirez once, even our own Justin Turner, Ted Williams had one season of .429 -- but it's just very hard to do for much longer than that. Now, Ty Cobb did it seven times... but I think that may have been a different era.
This is why a correct response to this is a conversation-ender like, "well, then I hope he doesn't get caught." Any response that attempts substance is useless to the provacatuer class, whether they are friends or talking heads.
Iglesias had a career .310 BABIP, so nothing all that special, although it was all over the place from a .276 to .356 in his full seasons. You always hear about BABIP being connected to speed, but looking at the top batters in it over a decent length of time, there seems to be a mix of hitter types and not speed guys in a particularly large number. Also, as @Pitt the Elder showed, his speed hasn't really changed since he hit the majors, so it wouldn't be the sign of sudden juicing changing something. His exit velocity didn't change all that much either, so I don't see any signs there. Unless he's been on PEDs his whole career, which is entirely possible even with testing (I'm a jaded child of the steroid era, I'm never surprised when somebody gets caught for it even if I don't go looking for people to suspect) his BABIP and his success this year doesn't seem to be connected to any new body chemistry. It seems a lot more about his much higher LD rate than anything else.
In the movie Major League, the manager gets on Willie Mays Hayes just for this very thing. Instead of trying to hit stuff in the air, hit it into the ground and use his blazing speed to beat out hits. Duran definitely can do that, and does do that. Moreover, he turns singles into doubles. Of course he hits regular doubles - doubles that would be doubles for anyone really - but he hits balls that for the vast majority of players would be singles, but he runs so hard and so fast that he gets two bases out of them. That impacts his SLG. So his OPS is definitely inflated simply by using his speed and aggressive base running.
I'm sure there's some impact of speed on BABIP, but it can't possibly explain .429 or whatever Duran is at. He only has 6 infield hits. Turn them all to outs (which is an overcorrection as not all infield hits are speed related) and he's still at .396.
Or Mookie! I remember him scoring from second on a SF early on and thinking, holy shit this dude's wired differently!
Duran is also hitting less ground balls (43%) than last year (50%). I think the most reasonable explanation for why his BABIP has gone from .302 to .429 (leave average is .292) is because his hard hit % had gone from 38% to 46% (league average 39%) and line drive from 17% to 31% (league average 24%).
I’d imagine that line drives and hard hit balls are much more likely to result in hits than ground balls are (while there is of course overlap between hard hit and ground balls).
I’d imagine that line drives and hard hit balls are much more likely to result in hits than ground balls are (while there is of course overlap between hard hit and ground balls).
I remember that when Iggy first came up he was spraying weakish contact all over the place but because of his speed and some rare luck, was the beneficiary of a very high BABIP. There were a lot of folks looking to immediately sell high on him. Invocations of smoke and mirrors and inevitable regression, etc. Eventually their wish was granted, and eventually his BABIP came down, too.
Jarren has infinitely more power than Iglesias could ever claim and yes, he’s stretching seemingly everything he hits by 90’ or so, if there’s artificial enhancement, as a few here have pointed out, there are no performance markers reflecting a big jump from ‘22 to ‘23, so yeah, line drives, base running, moxie, confidence, a reduced emphasis on launch-angle, etc., etc.
For a combination of reasons, Jarren’s enjoying a sophomore bump and I’m delighted to have been totally wrong on him, last year.
Edit; autocorrect
Absolutely loving this version of Duran. I brought this up a little in the other thread, but I would like to see us give him a little leash against lefties, just to see how he fares. It'd be fantastic for the org if he's our starting CF the next five years. But sooner or later, he should have a chance to hold his own in a full-time role.
It can be tough to find a short-side platoon hitter who can handle CF. If Duran can pull off a .725-.750 OPS against lefties, what's the point of wasting a roster spot on a Michael A. Taylor/Jake Marisnick type to pair with him? (Refsnyder is an OK CF for now, but profiles better in a corner).
And then, how does Duran's emergence affect the elite defensive center fielder we've got in AAA?
It can be tough to find a short-side platoon hitter who can handle CF. If Duran can pull off a .725-.750 OPS against lefties, what's the point of wasting a roster spot on a Michael A. Taylor/Jake Marisnick type to pair with him? (Refsnyder is an OK CF for now, but profiles better in a corner).
And then, how does Duran's emergence affect the elite defensive center fielder we've got in AAA?
According to fangraphs, 43.3% of Duran's hits are ground balls vs the AL average of 42.2%. He has an infield hit/gb rate of 8.6% vs 6.6% for the AL average. So that is better, but not by all that much. So as you said he's only had 6 infield hits, and the average guy would have 4.5 hits based on these numbers, so not a huge difference. Even if we scale that up for a full season you're talking about 3-4 hits. I don't think footspeed is the main driver here either.
Amongst the Duran optimists ( I wasn’t one) there was thought that if he swung for contact rather than power he could exploit the new defensive shift ban.