Doogie does defense, the Sam Hauser thread

NomarsFool

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I hope he has a realistic understanding of what his ceiling is, and also what it means to be on an actual good team. I hope he doesn’t follow his twin Hayward and make the same mistake of opting for more money on some terrible team just to experience professional failure. I think he would be really exposed if expected to play a major role on a crappy team.
 

benhogan

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I think if I'm Sam I either play out the string or ask for a 1+1 to provide some injury protection (if that type of extension is allowed). He's 26, so if he signs a 4/$50 now, he'll be 31 and past his prime before he gets to UFA. Nothing to sneeze at but less than he'll make as a UFA at age 27, barring severe injury.
We're all bullish on Hauser, but I wouldn't expect him to ask or get close to Austin Reaves 4yrs/$56MM

We can all argue who is better, more of a fit, etc BUT I'm pretty sure the perception around the NBA is Reaves > Hauser

There were teams with cap space and Reaves was coming off a huge playoffs & FIBA & he was an Unrestricted Free Agent.

Hauser contract speculation around here is starting to reach the Grant Williams $20MM/yr!!! wild-eyed speculation of last season. RFA was never letting that happen and 1-year left on Sam's deal also won't let Hauser's price get out of control.

If he gets a Grant-sized offer, he'll sign it, but wouldn't be surprised if it's less than that deal.

If I'm wrong, something has gone incredibly well.

EDIT Reaves was a RFA, not an UFA
 
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lovegtm

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We're all bullish on Hauser, but I wouldn't expect him to ask or get close to UFA Austin Reaves 4yrs/$56MM

We can all argue who is better, more of a fit, etc BUT I'm pretty sure the perception around the NBA is Reaves > Hauser

There were teams with cap space and Reaves was coming off a huge playoffs, FIBA & he was an Unrestricted Free Agent.

Hauser contract speculation around here is starting to reach the Grant Williams $20MM/yr!!! wild-eyed speculation of last season. RFA was never letting that happen and 1-year left on Sam's deal also won't let Hauser's price get out of control.

If he gets a Grant-sized offer, he'll sign it, but wouldn't be surprised if it's less than that deal.

If I'm wrong, something has gone incredibly well.
Reaves was an RFA. If he had been UFA, there would have been a better deal for him.

Hauser is a UFA after this deal.

So, contrary to your post:
- Reaves deal doesn't provide a baseline, because he was an RFA
- Grant is a bad comparison, because Hauser will be UFA

There is a real danger of Sam betting on himself imo. I'm still confident they get something done, but he's somewhat in the driver's seat.
 

benhogan

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Reaves was an RFA. If he had been UFA, there would have been a better deal for him.

Hauser is a UFA after this deal.

So, contrary to your post:
- Reaves deal doesn't provide a baseline, because he was an RFA
- Grant is a bad comparison, because Hauser will be UFA

There is a real danger of Sam betting on himself imo. I'm still confident they get something done, but he's somewhat in the driver's seat.
You're right but Hauser still won't exceed Reaves deal
 

Eddie Jurak

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We're all bullish on Hauser, but I wouldn't expect him to ask or get close to UFA Austin Reaves 4yrs/$56MM

We can all argue who is better, more of a fit, etc BUT I'm pretty sure the perception around the NBA is Reaves > Hauser

There were teams with cap space and Reaves was coming off a huge playoffs, FIBA & he was an Unrestricted Free Agent.

Hauser contract speculation around here is starting to reach the Grant Williams $20MM/yr!!! wild-eyed speculation of last season. RFA was never letting that happen and 1-year left on Sam's deal also won't let Hauser's price get out of control.

If he gets a Grant-sized offer, he'll sign it, but wouldn't be surprised if it's less than that deal.

If I'm wrong, something has gone incredibly well.
I assume NBA salaries are still rising faster than inflation, so the Reeves/Grant deals will be for more by the time Hauser is a UFA. Plus as @lovegtm notes those were both RFA deals.

On top of that, they are both a year younger than Hauser and already playing in year 1 of their deals. Grant and Reaves go UFA at age 28/29. Hauser, if he signs a 4 year extension, goes UFA at age 31/32. If Hauser signs a 1+1 at the max the Celtics can offer, he can go UFA at age 27/28. Maybe he gives up ~$30MM guaranteed to bet on himself in that scenario.

I mean, Duncan Robinson got 5 years $90MM from the Heat a couple of years ago. If I'm Hauser I want a chance at that.
 

benhogan

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Reaves was an RFA. If he had been UFA, there would have been a better deal for him.

Hauser is a UFA after this deal.

So, contrary to your post:
- Reaves deal doesn't provide a baseline, because he was an RFA
- Grant is a bad comparison, because Hauser will be UFA

There is a real danger of Sam betting on himself imo. I'm still confident they get something done, but he's somewhat in the driver's seat.
Grant could have stayed for 1 more year at a discounted rate ($6MM range) and been a UFA the following season

So it's exactly like Sam's situation. Except Grant had made more money, had playoff success, & has endless confidence. He didn't bet on himself because $50MM is life-changing $$$
 

bigq

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The guy is an absolute weapon. three steals tonight, although they basically handed him the ball on all of them.
He also led the team in rebounds (7) and dished out 4 assists (a couple of them to PP for wide open corner threes) in 31:30 minutes played which was the 2nd most playing time on the team. He put on a good show for his mom and dad. Maybe CJM is a lurker here and is taking his cues from those calling for more Hauser minutes. ;)
 

benhogan

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I mean, Duncan Robinson got 5 years $90MM from the Heat a couple of years ago. If I'm Hauser I want a chance at that.
I don't want to sound like a Hauser doubter. I believe he is the Celtic's best 3pt shooter (even in volume) and an underrated defender. Heck, I'd love for him to get more 3pt shots (at the expense of JAYs stepbacks o_O ) and play more minutes. I've been banging that drum since last season.

I understand the Duncan Robinson comp. BUT Duncan was starting & playing 30mpg for 2 seasons when he signed that deal. PLUS the Duncan contract was underwater an hour after it was signed. It's commonly cited as one of the worst NBA deals around.

Sam won't get the minutes or shots Duncan got, he's surrounded by 5 All-Star level players & PP who all want theirs.
It's a blessing (Sam gets his share of open shots) and a curse (NBA pecking order is real).

Sam's agent may look at Max Strus UFA deal(4yrs/$63MM) and say that is Sam's upside if he plays 2024-25 for $2MM.
Taking 3+1yrs/$50MM in the Summer of 2024 and having a crack at UFA at 29 is pretty darn attractive

Hauser's height & release implies that he can have a long NBA career. My favorite Hauser comp is Kyle Korver (with better D). Kyle played until he was 38.
 

jmcc5400

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He also led the team in rebounds (7) and dished out 4 assists (a couple of them to PP for wide open corner threes) in 31:30 minutes played which was the 2nd most playing time on the team. He put on a good show for his mom and dad. Maybe CJM is a lurker here and is taking his cues from those calling for more Hauser minutes. ;)
There were two or three instances of Hauser and Pritchard passing back and forth with one passing up a good look at three to give the other a great look. Very nice to see.
 

slamminsammya

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I don't want to sound like a Hauser doubter. I believe he is the Celtic's best 3pt shooter (even in volume) and an underrated defender. Heck, I'd love for him to get more 3pt shots (at the expense of JAYs stepbacks o_O ) and play more minutes. I've been banging that drum since last season.

I understand the Duncan Robinson comp. BUT Duncan was starting & playing 30mpg for 2 seasons when he signed that deal. PLUS the Duncan contract was underwater an hour after it was signed. It's commonly cited as one of the worst NBA deals around.

Sam won't get the minutes or shots Duncan got, he's surrounded by 5 All-Star level players & PP who all want theirs.
It's a blessing (Sam gets his share of open shots) and a curse (NBA pecking order is real).

Sam's agent may look at Max Strus UFA deal(4yrs/$63MM) and say that is Sam's upside if he plays 2024-25 for $2MM.
Taking 3+1yrs/$50MM in the Summer of 2024 and having a crack at UFA at 29 is pretty darn attractive

Hauser's height & release implies that he can have a long NBA career. My favorite Hauser comp is Kyle Korver (with better D). Kyle played until he was 38.
Duncan Robinson has a bad contract? I am not convinced. Hes pretty good this year, he had one down season last year.
 

benhogan

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Duncan Robinson has a bad contract? I am not convinced. Hes pretty good this year, he had one down season last year.
Yep, he had 2 down years after signing. "Bad contract" had been conventional NBA wisdom when Strus jumped him.

He's had a great start to the season now that he's recovered those lost Strus minutes & shots. Letting Strus go was a good move by the Heats front office.

Thought Duncan regained a lot of his confidence against the Celtics in the playoffs last season.

Tangential, since Hauser won't be playing 30mpg for 2 years prior to hitting UFA
 

Euclis20

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Duncan Robinson has a bad contract? I am not convinced. Hes pretty good this year, he had one down season last year.
Before the playoffs last year, he was on every 'bad contacts' list written. It wasn't just one down year, he had been declining for three straight and he had fallen out of the regular season rotation at times, and a guy making 5/90 that isn't in the regular season rotation is absolutely one of the worst deals in the league. He broke out in a big way in the playoffs and he's off to a terrific start this season, but based on his history it wouldn't shock me to sink back to the end of the bench.
 

slamminsammya

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Before the playoffs last year, he was on every 'bad contacts' list written. It wasn't just one down year, he had been declining for three straight and he had fallen out of the regular season rotation at times, and a guy making 5/90 that isn't in the regular season rotation is absolutely one of the worst deals in the league. He broke out in a big way in the playoffs and he's off to a terrific start this season, but based on his history it wouldn't shock me to sink back to the end of the bench.
I have a hard time conceptualizing a guy making 15 million this year as a bad contract. It's pretty marginal imo, the bad contract stuff is overblown on him. it's hard to make that money and be a truly bad contract imo.

edit: per spotrac he's 90th in the league in cap hit this year. the guys around him are at his level production wise. even when it was signed, why was that a bad contract?
 
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benhogan

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I have a hard time conceptualizing a guy making 15 million this year as a bad contract. It's pretty marginal imo, the bad contract stuff is overblown on him. it's hard to make that money and be a truly bad contract imo.
I'm pretty thrilled the C's don't have Duncan on their roster at $18MM this year. He makes the same money as Derrick White.

BUT if DR continues to play like he has this season Miami should be fine with his bad defense.

Sounds like you don't pay attention to "worst contract" chatter but Duncan has been on lists for the last 2 years.
I didn't think it was a very controversial take. He received plenty of DNP-CDs last season.
 

Spelunker

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I'm pretty thrilled the C's don't have Duncan on their roster at $18MM this year. He makes the same money as Derrick White.

BUT if DR continues to play like he has this season Miami should be fine with his bad defense.

Sounds like you don't pay attention to "worst contract" chatter but Duncan has been on lists for the last 2 years.
I didn't think it was a very controversial take. He received plenty of DNP-CDs last season.
Agreed, but to me that's mainly because DW isn't an $18MM player.
 

slamminsammya

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I'm pretty thrilled the C's don't have Duncan on their roster at $18MM this year. He makes the same money as Derrick White.

BUT if DR continues to play like he has this season Miami should be fine with his bad defense.

Sounds like you don't pay attention to "worst contract" chatter but Duncan has been on lists for the last 2 years.
I didn't think it was a very controversial take. He received plenty of DNP-CDs last season.
Its not arguable he was on the list, of course. I don't care about someone's list though, I just can't see an 18mm a year guy deserving being on any worst contract list
 

benhogan

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If Duncan at $18MM is fine, then I'm guessing you guys probably feel Brad made a mistake not retaining Grant Williams at $12.4MM?
 

Euclis20

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Its not arguable he was on the list, of course. I don't care about someone's list though, I just can't see an 18mm a year guy deserving being on any worst contract list
That’s fair, it's unlikely that an 18M deal (even at that many years) will cripple a franchise, which may be a requirement for a worst contract list. Nevertheless, when a guy has no shot of outperforming his contract AND could drop out of the regular season rotation AND it's a five year deal, it's absolutely a bad to awful contract. Eyebrows were raised when he got the deal, then he spent the next two seasons getting worse before he had a resurgence in the playoffs.
 

NomarsFool

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The money is hard for us to comprehend, but I’d say that any player that has a contract above the MLE that gets DNP-CDs on a somewhat regular basis is a bad contract.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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With the evergreen caveats that defensive metrics, advanced or not, are flawed and that the sample sizes are still small, Darko is telling you what the eyes are saying. Hauser is a legitimate two way player. I would argue that he has moved from being a credible defender to a good one. You won't find me dying on that hill but I think its a reasonable take.

Sam is simply a great scouting/development win for the C's.
75193
 

DavidTai

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To be fair, it was against Haliburton who is an absolutely terrible defender. I love that guy, but man he makes Trae Young look competent on D
If defenses try to hide their worst defender on Hauser, it's comforting to know that Hauser will be a little more diverse at attacking the defender, at least.
 

DavidTai

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Article with some stats putting Hauser's D in context.

Hauser is holding opponents to 44.8% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from deep this season. He ranks first among the Celtics’ regulars in opponent three-point percentage, and just two guys best him in FG% - Jrue Holiday (44.8%) and Al Horford (44.3%) -- two former All-Defense players.
https://www.celticsblog.com/2024/1/15/24038572/boston-celtics-sam-hauser-island-defense-joe-mazzulla-houston-rockets-dillon-brooks-jabari-smith-jr
 

HomeRunBaker

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Is there a place that breaks down who the shooters are for context? Joe is 100% accurate in him being white as a stereotype. That's been around, and overall an accurate sentiment without any other information, for decades.
NBA.com has matchup data - go to Hauser's Stat page and then where it says "Profile," there's a menu from which you can pick "Matchups" and it appears to show all of the matchup data. This link may take you there: Sam Hauser | Boston Celtics | NBA.com

Cole Anthony has the most FGA v Hauser and he's 1-8. Tobias Harris is 2-7; Melton is 2-6; Portis is 5-6; and Darius Garland is 4-5. There are 6 players who have 5 shots attempts against him (Mathurin = 1-5; Franz Wagner = 1-5; Banchero = 3-5; Maxey = 2-5; and M.Morris Sr. = 2-5).

It's pretty small sample sizes versus any individual defender but collectively, it suggests that Hauser is better than opposing players think.
 

DavidTai

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I'm just surprised Ime let Houston fall into that trap, especially with a number of last year's Celtics assistants with him now.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I'm just surprised Ime let Houston fall into that trap, especially with a number of last year's Celtics assistants with him now.
The fact that they attacked him with Dillon Brooks, who is kind of a poor man's Hauser, to start was kind of cool. Dillon Brooks didn't enjoy his stay on Hauser Island.
 

Jimbodandy

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The fact that they attacked him with Dillon Brooks, who is kind of a poor man's Hauser, to start was kind of cool. Dillon Brooks didn't enjoy his stay on Hauser Island.
We have maybe two guys on the roster where I'd be worried that Dillon Brooks is going to eat. Please make Dillon Brooks isos your offense against us. The game is already won when that happens.
 

benhogan

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We have maybe two guys on the roster where I'd be worried that Dillon Brooks is going to eat. Please make Dillon Brooks isos your offense against us. The game is already won when that happens.
Yea, I honestly didn't realize Dylan Brook ISOs were a thing, but sign me up for that twice a year if it is...
 

wilked

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I appreciate the PR...but does he actually belong? I took a look at this season's numbers and he's ranked 40th

Season Leaders | Stats | NBA.com

And it's not like the guys above him are low-volume guys.

Also - Grayson Allen is having a great year by the looks...
 

benhogan

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I appreciate the PR...but does he actually belong? I took a look at this season's numbers and he's ranked 40th

Season Leaders | Stats | NBA.com

And it's not like the guys above him are low-volume guys.

Also - Grayson Allen is having a great year by the looks...
Yeah, the team has been effectively PRing their players for a while now, culminating in a Jaylen Brown All-NBA selection last year.

It's the right approach for the player, fans, & team building.

Brad is probably having ongoing extension conversations with Sam's agent & will try to get something done this Summer
 

bosockboy

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Yeah, the team has been effectively PRing their players for a while now, culminating in a Jaylen Brown All-NBA selection last year.

It's the right approach for the player, fans, & team building.

Brad is probably having ongoing extension conversations with Sam's agent & will try to get something done this Summer
I assume things like this might help Hauser get a small shoe deal and help him financially outside of his contract. It’s good to do for your players.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I appreciate the PR...but does he actually belong? I took a look at this season's numbers and he's ranked 40th

Season Leaders | Stats | NBA.com

And it's not like the guys above him are low-volume guys.

Also - Grayson Allen is having a great year by the looks...
I get you're asking a good message board question and not otherwise.

That clearly stated, I totally love the team pumping up its guys for these kinds of things and could not care less if they deserve it! I want guys to feel like Celts have their backs, and if comparatively large Celtics fan base gets substantively less-worthy Celtics into competitions and awards that helps the team attract guys in future. So go Celts PR team and we here (and the ever-active NBA podcast world) can debate the actual merits separately.