Doogie does defense, the Sam Hauser thread
- Thread starter chilidawg
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It definitely includes playoffs. Maybe it includes preseason too or the grid lines aren't exactly lined up perfectly. I don't think that I've ever really done a lot of comparison with guys in the 200 game vicinity.
I guess it's lazy but Hauser does resemble Robinson more than Strus (or any other obvious comparison) to my eyes. By the numbers they are the only guys who shoot threes at that ~85% volume. And stylistically they both have a similar form on their release. And I don't know their exact numbers but Strus definite looks a bit bulkier/barrel chested than the other two. Either way, these are good outcomes for a guy who is still just 19 years old.
DARKO is a projection system, so I am guessing what you are seeing is the projection over the next X amount of games, but I might be wrong.
Edit: I am wrong.
"NCAA, summer league, and preseason data fits in smoothly in the DARKO framework and will be added for the 2021 season to address this issue. This will also have the benefit of improving projections for veterans as well."
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SSS, 10 games for his career, but Hauser scores at the same rate as a starter and reserve, and just a bit less efficient. Still shoots 43/40% as a starter. He would face tougher comp as a starter, but would be playing with better players, as the fifth threat, on a spaced court, with plenty of drive and kick players.
Got it, thanks. That really doesn't make me feel any better about it, to be honest. Half of his sample aren't real NBA games, I'd rather see less data (and just understand that the projection is less clear) than incorporate summer league and NCAA.
Who are we talking about that is 19 years old? I thought this was Hauser who was in college for 5 years.
Not to pile on, but their styles are not similar at all. Hayward had the ball in his hands - a lot. He routinely brought the ball up the floor and initiated offense. He can create off the dribble and set up teammates. He ran pick n roll.
Hauser is a great shooter that is asked to do nothing else on the offensive side of the floor. He is more similar to someone like Grant Williams on the offensive end than anyone like Hayward
Thanks. Seriously, thanks.
I may have been being dense. Yes, I see the Grant comparison is more fitting.
I like Hayward, so maybe I'm setting aspirations to Hauser.
Spot on. Hauser is similar to Grant, but I think he's more of a guy who can shoot on the move where Grant would mostly camp in the corner. Hauser more similar to Robinson in that regard. Grant and Hauser are very different defensively because of Grant's ability to be physical and hold his ground, but I think Hauser moves a little better and has a little more length to bother shooters.
We didn't see it much here because of his injury, but in Utah, Hayward was a very aggressive player who attacked the rim. He had 68 dunks his final year in Utah - for comparison, that's more than Jaylen has ever had in a single season. He came here as a jack of all trades sort of player that could do everything reasonably well and would have fit in any starting lineup in the league.
If I remember correctly, he graduated from college at age 10 and medical school at age 14. I don’t know when he took up basketball…. Or maybe that’s a different Doogie.
Not really? He's a good player, but this specific roster has lots of versatile defenders who can guard up a position, so you don't miss him much there. He gets killed on the boards when he's the 4 or 5, so no help there.
Finally, he shoots a great % from 3, but Hauser can get it off in much tighter spaces, and so does more for spacing.
Grant was a great player to have on a rookie deal. At $12.5MM, he's good value now for Dallas, but Grant would have been a luxury here.
Agree, Hauser is an upgrade shooting-wise due to his release point. Sam also moves better, is longer so he's a better perimeter defender. Grant playing 5 had run its course, BIGs figured him out. GW would get up underneath them and use his strength to move BIGs around a little. BUT Centers could easily turn, see the floor, or shoot over Grant. Dallas has a dozen Centers on their roster so they just use him at the 4. A nice addition for the Mavs.
Brad has reconstructed the deep bench with situational players. Plus those guys are OTM call options on minimum deals. So if a player like Bantan, Svi, Brissett, Stevens, or Queta figures it out he can give them 3yr guaranteed contract on the cheap & get their prime seasons. No more 19/20-year-old projects other than Walsh, who I see as eventual trade fodder.
Unfortunately, this isn't totally correct. The problem is that you don't get Early Bird rights (ability to sign up to 105% of league avg salary) unless the player has been on the team for two years. Banton has a club option for 24-25, so if he popped, the Cs could exercise that and then give him a competitive contract in 25-26.
Queta is on a 2-way, so they'd get to use RFA on him like they did on Hauser.
Stevens is on a one-year deal, and Brissett has a player option in 24-25, so if either of them figure it out, the Cs can only offer a small contract next summer.
This is how Denver lost Bruce Brown: they got him cheap because he had a 2nd year player option, but then when he worked out great, he declined the option and they had no way to pay him anything near his value, since they didn't have Early Bird. (Even with Early Bird he probably leaves for that big Indy deal, but that deal is a weird one because of the big salary but team option in 2nd year).
Not if we are healthy. Horford is a significantly better bench big and Hauser is a better bench wing. There’s really nothing Grant brings to the table that this team needs. He would be a nice luxury to have as deep depth if we could somehow have him but not need to play him when everyone is healthy, but that scenario doesn’t make sense and certainly isn’t worth what Dallas is paying him to start for them.
And this is even before you factor in the internal team politics that reportedly had players lobbying to play Grant over Hauser last year.
Are you saying Grant isn't worth his current contract to this Celtics team (agree 100%) or that he isn't worth his current contract to Dallas (disagree more than 100% if more than 100% was a thing)?
I like the way things are trending with Hauser. If you had to make a roster decision between Hauser and Grant Williams taking Sam seems like the right choice particularly for this Celtics team.
Playing Sam Hauser instead of Grant Williams makes this a better team as does playing one of White or Holiday in place of Smart. Kudos to PBS who seems to be pulling the right levers and pushing the right buttons.
Playing Sam Hauser instead of Grant Williams makes this a better team as does playing one of White or Holiday in place of Smart. Kudos to PBS who seems to be pulling the right levers and pushing the right buttons.
It seems like many here (including me) were hoping GW could be a poor man’s Al Horford. Instead we have Al being a rich man’s GW, while making less than GW is currently making.
I'm a huge Grant fan, and I'd rather have Hauser right now at the same salary, nevermind factoring in the delta.
Yea I don't think those deep bench players will see real floor/playoff time like a Bruce Brown. They just won't have that kind of opportunity being on Boston (even SLAM Hauser won't see anything close to BB $$$). Those guys would have to go to another NBA team to get that sort of chance.
I'm thinking more in terms of what Boston will see in practice/small game minutes to retain them as those "situational/deep bench players (LOOGY)" for years to come. With the minutes they will receive it will probably be hard for them to get gtd NBA contracts next season. I'm assuming those deep bench players would be willing to sign multi-year guaranteed NBA deals at season's end. Is offering 2-3 yr gtd deals not allowed?
The Celtics TOP8 (after Hauser, White & Jrue extensions with Tatum super MAX) is set for numerous seasons. Even expect Horford will continue to play past next season, now that he can be a lower-minute 6th man. As much as Brad likes to trade/make deals he really seems to like continuity/contract extensions for his roster, that last season of Rozier probably had an impact on Coach Brad.
I've been pretty critical of the Mavericks but think the Grant deal is well worth it. GW's catch-shoot 3 ability fits well next to ball-dominant players like Luka & Kyrie. Plus he's a willing defender.
I'd grade that out as one of the better NBA deals last summer (and liked it much more than the Strus deal)
Offering 2-3 year deals to players without Early Bird (have been on team 2 years) is allowed, but, for a team above the 2nd apron, they have to be minimum deals. No MLE. Some guys might take that (Banton accepted 2 min years with second as team option), but most guys don't like to lock in minimum money for 2+ years. They'd rather have the option to hit the market if things work out in that first minimum year.
The one place we may miss Grant is his ability to be stout vs some bigs - he's a great option vs Giannis and Jokic, less so vs Embiid. We have Horford as a 'primary' vs those guys but we're a lot worse beyond that than if we had Grant.
That also is a very specific role and use which we might be able to replicate on buy-out market, but it may matter in a playoff series. Otherwise agree with others--Grant's other matchups/roles are pretty well-covered so long as we're healthy
That also is a very specific role and use which we might be able to replicate on buy-out market, but it may matter in a playoff series. Otherwise agree with others--Grant's other matchups/roles are pretty well-covered so long as we're healthy
Thanks.
Trying to work backwards on why Brad/Zarren went and added those 24-26 yr-old archetypes for 9-14. But probably more coincidental than some sort of optional/value play
I keep thinking Brissett or Stevens could be that small ball/Grant-style/pesky defender of nimble 5s (Giannis, Joker, Bam, Sabonis, Allen, etc) but haven't seen it yet. But agree we have JRUE now to lock them up
Yeah, those guys (Stevens/Brissett) are the archetype and surely part of why team signed them. And maybe one of them will get there and be a piece you can play 15-20 minutes in very specific matchups. To me Jrue is an answer to most every profile EXCEPT the 2-3 guys I named - he's just too small to really be what they need vs Giannis or Jokic. He's a great answer for the other profiles Grant would defend, I agree.
To be clear, this is a super specific gap, and you can't have everything. I totally get not matching the Grant deal, and Hauser's increased play has made the other thing Grant brought (reliable three point shooting off bench) even more of a strength so the decision to let Grant go looks even better now. I do think those specific situations are the answer to the question "when migth we really miss Grant" alongside an injury.
To be clear, this is a super specific gap, and you can't have everything. I totally get not matching the Grant deal, and Hauser's increased play has made the other thing Grant brought (reliable three point shooting off bench) even more of a strength so the decision to let Grant go looks even better now. I do think those specific situations are the answer to the question "when migth we really miss Grant" alongside an injury.
Grant was a reliably available depth option, with emphasis on the available part. He missed just 20 games in 4 years, and I think at least a few of those were DNP-CDs.
Half joking I know, but Holiday missed 15 games last year alone (and 15 in 2022, 13 in 2021, 11 in 2020 and 15 in 2019). As fun as it is to see him bang with guys that outweigh him by 50+ pounds, I'd prefer that to be a neat trick that the Celtics can run from time to time in the playoffs, as opposed to a 15-20 minutes per game option in the regular season.Isn't that what we got Jrue for?
A reasonable question that I didn’t recognize as I was writing. I meant the former. I think Grant’s contract is reasonable for Dallas. If you went back in time a year+, it’s the contract I wanted Boston to sign him to more or less, so getting him for that as a FA is a good deal for Dallas. I’m not convinced this is a Tony Allen situation where Dallas got an absolute steal, which it sounds like might be your view. Even if it is that, I think the Hauser/Horford/Porzingis situation meant there was no role for him here, so it still would be materially different on that front. And while Grant does have the potential to establish himself as that sort of high level defensive glue guy, although I’m skeptical Dallas is an organization that can realize that ceiling. They aren’t close to the organization Memphis was in terms of maximizing the potential of their talent. Maybe we’ll be having that conversation a few years from now, and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if we were, which again reinforces that it was a good signing for Dallas.
Sorry but no, this is ridiculous.
Hauser is a low-usage guy because he is 100% dependent on teammates getting him open looks - 96% of his threes this year are assisted. Only 55% of his 2s are assisted, which sounds great until you consider that he's only hit 11 2s all season, less than 1 per game. He does not create offense for himself or teammates.* There's no shame in that, and there is value in having that kind of player on a team full of higher usage stars.
But Hayward is a guy who could handle the ball, run the point some, create offense for himself and others. It's not just about assists but how he gets them. Hauser is capable of reading the defense and making a nice pass when the situation arises, but he cannot create that situation.
Hauser's limitations were on full display against the Sixers - 3 turnovers, at least 2 of which were on fast breaks where he was handling the ball and guys closed on him. As a general rule, if he's taken more that 2 dribbles it is best to hide your eyes.
I think he's improved tremendously since he came into the league. His fairly stable 3 point percentage and rate from year to year has hidden the fact that he gets more defensive attention now and can get his shot off faster while still being accurate. He's also able to make good cuts, the occasional good pass, and of course the much improved defense. But he's still essentially a 3 and D guy.
Yeah, these are just completely apples and oranges. Gordon Hayward was a borderline All-NBA lead playmaker. Sam Hauser is a very good movement shooter. Other than being white and 6-7 ish, there isn't much reason to say their names in the same sentence.
@Eddie Jurak and @lovegtm, this is where I want to post the Simpsons' "Stop, he's already dead" meme.
I've already backtracked from the comparison and someone mentioned that Grant Williams is the better comparison.
I've already backtracked from the comparison and someone mentioned that Grant Williams is the better comparison.
Hayward landed in an ideal spot in Utah as the offense ran through him during his final couple years there. Being a high usage guy in a contract year with only Iso-Joe's calcified corpse as the teams other shot creator was a dream spot in a contract year to prop up his numbers. Hayward was always a good player but he's talked about in Boston as if the ankle injury ruined the career of a perennial All-Star. I could rant on this forever without even getting into those fantastic vitamins he had that one year when his body made significant changes. Then and now are like looking at two different people.
Sam seems to like playing in December. In the 5 games the Celtics have played this month Sam is averaging 9 points in 21 minutes while shooting 52% from the floor including 61%! from three while grabbing 3.4 rebounds and 1 assist per game. 'Tis the season of gift giving and sharing. Get this man more minutes CJM!
The guy is an absolute weapon. three steals tonight, although they basically handed him the ball on all of them.
That one from under the basket up the baseline was a line drive from pedroia though. In the moment I thought I would have never grabbed that in time.
It's ok, you can give him more credit. They mostly weren't just handed to him: he was zoning up the weakside really well, and that's where all the steals were coming from.
This summer Brad will tell him lots of "what if you shoot 36% next year" scare stories and try to get him for 4/50, but the price is definitely going up.
Bringing over from the other thread: Hauser should be extension-eligible on July 9, 2024. He can make up to 120% of the average player salary, so $12M/year is roughly the max they can pay him.
That's tough, because he could start on most NBA teams, but his low prior career earnings, and the additional year left at only $2M might help get it done.
My favorite Sam play from last night was the one where he picked up his dribble on a drive towards the end of the half. Rather than go up with the ball against two guys, he passed out, putting the Magic in rotation and setting up an easy Tatum dunk.
Ha, I just watched that play, and was thinking the opposite: everyone left the rim, and he had an easy layup, but passed it out instead.
Not a horrific mistake, and Suggs did a good job faking him out, but he still Ben Simmons'd it kinda badly lol.
The thing is, Sam is kind of slow. I think he could get a layup but it would be contested. But I haven’t watched since last night so my memory might be foggy here.
Yeah, watch it again. Suggs fakes that he's going to protect the rim but then bails, and Sam passes out of the widest-open layup he'll have this year.
I think if I'm Sam I either play out the string or ask for a 1+1 to provide some injury protection (if that type of extension is allowed). He's 26, so if he signs a 4/$50 now, he'll be 31 and past his prime before he gets to UFA. Nothing to sneeze at but less than he'll make as a UFA at age 27, barring severe injury.
Yes. Sometimes he like he has an open layup but really he doesn't.
~ $50,000,000 would be damn tough to pass up when you have a $2,000,000 existing contract for another year. A lot of stuff can go wrong and $50,000,000 is a LOT of dough! I also hope it gets done!