Yeah, I'd rather have Hauser's drastically better ability to get his shot off under pressure (which translates to lots more attempts/36) than Grant's dribbling ability.
Doogie does defense, the Sam Hauser thread
- Thread starter chilidawg
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Grant's moderate dribbling ability seemed to be more of a function of him being primarily a corner shooter. Hauser relocates a lot better everywhere else without the ball.
Hauser's height + shooting pocket, makes him more dangerous than Granite (although Grant shot 43.3% from 3 during the playoffs)
It is almost laughable that anyone would want to limit his regular season minutes at 20mpg. Just like it was laughable when people would bitch about Grant
Expect CJM to inch Hausers' usage up during higher leverage situations (& sit him during garbage time)
It is almost laughable that anyone would want to limit his regular season minutes at 20mpg. Just like it was laughable when people would bitch about Grant
Expect CJM to inch Hausers' usage up during higher leverage situations (& sit him during garbage time)
Hauser is hardly a threat to score off the dribble either, but I'd gladly take him handling the ball in transition over Grant. I doubt Hauser has substantial growth left in his game, but his handle looks good enough to me that I wouldn't mind seeing if he can earn some trust taking the ball up the court or even running pick and roll, if only to get him more looks from 3 in new ways against other benches. We all know the Celtics aren't in development mode so giving addition responsibilities to an existing rotation player might be the closest they get.
What else should he add? Pump fake, step in? That would be a nice counter for corner three closeouts. But other than just more comfort on shooting off screens He has enough offense.
I imagine that's what he was testing out in preseason and garbage time actually.
I expect there to be a moderate increase in Hauser’s usage, but pure shooters typically have low usage. For clarity, when I say “pure shooter” I mean a very high percentage of their shot attempts are threes. Hauser is a substantial outlier on this front. He had the highest rate of threes last year (84.6%), and is over 90% early on this year. Last year only 2 other players (Bullock and Batum) had rates over 80% and only 15 over 70%.
Hauser’s usage is and has been around 15%. Using the 14-other players who had 3-point rates above 70% last year as a comparative sample, only 5 had a usage meaningfully over 15%—Muscala was at 15.1%—and only 1 had a usage over 20% (Malik Beasley). Aside from Beasley, no one had a usage over 18%.
The four players in the 17-18% range were Devonte’ Graham, Isaiah Joe, Georges Niang, and Max Strus. Graham is a bit of an outlier here since he creates his own shot a lot of the time, but the others are decent comps for Hauser. That range is also where Robinson’s usage peaked. In other words, Hauser’s usage increase, if it happens, is going to be pretty modest unless his game completely transforms because he’s already actually a moderately high usage player for his role, even though he’s a low usage player overall.
I feel like there haven't been that many players like Hauser in league history.
Steve Kerr was a specialist in his time and was ~37.5% for three point attempt rate for his career. That's basically Tatum's rate.
Steve Novak (77.9% rate) is basically the epitome of the true specialist. You also have guys like Joe Ingles (66.3%), Kyle Korver (61.6%), Joe Harris (59.5%), Luke Kennard (57.1%)
By comparison, Steph (50.8%), Doug McDermott (47.5%), Klay (45.7%) seem almost unremarkable.
Anyways, I'm setting this up because I want you all to be ready for the Hauser reveal:
The only guy at that level is Duncan Robinson (84.9% for his career)
Steve Kerr was a specialist in his time and was ~37.5% for three point attempt rate for his career. That's basically Tatum's rate.
Steve Novak (77.9% rate) is basically the epitome of the true specialist. You also have guys like Joe Ingles (66.3%), Kyle Korver (61.6%), Joe Harris (59.5%), Luke Kennard (57.1%)
By comparison, Steph (50.8%), Doug McDermott (47.5%), Klay (45.7%) seem almost unremarkable.
Anyways, I'm setting this up because I want you all to be ready for the Hauser reveal:
The only guy at that level is Duncan Robinson (84.9% for his career)
This strikes me as a poor application of analytics.
Your underlying assumption here is that Sam Hauser here is a 'pure shooter' and nothing else, which therefore means he should not be given more minute AND then apply statistics showing players that would support this thesis.
The argument, however, is whether Sam Hauser should be given -more- minutes, not whether 'pure shooters' are capped out at a certain minutes because it's their playing style.
And I'm not buying that pure shooters who take only 3's are capped out at a certain amount of minutes because... why? Is it their playing style and not being able to score above a certain number of minutes, or is it because they're giving up more points than they score? The latter should not be a concern where Hauser is concerned.
The real analytical reason, at least, where Sam Hauser is concerned, should be whether his effectiveness goes -down- with more minutes or not. And that's something we don't actually have data for.
If it doesn't, he should have more minutes, and saying 'some pure shooter who only plays limited minutes' is not appliable.
Which is to say, the only real argument I'd buy about not giving him more minutes is that he's -less- effective with more minutes, not because someone typecast him as a pure shooter, which is the -same- stupidly flawed reasoning that applies to the people who think he can't play defense. Sam Hauser is a player, and it's too premature to determine if his ceiling is a 'pure shooter playing limited minutes' or not.
Not to mention that the sample of comparable players is pretty much just Duncan Robinson and Max Strus.
Miami would play Duncan all he could handle if
- he shot a bit better
- he could hold up on D
And those are really the only relevant questions for Hauser too. If he answers those affirmatively, he can handle more minutes.
You seem confused about the arguments I have made. I did make an argument that Hauser likely won’t see a significant minutes increase. In that argument I said Hauser would be “exposed” with greater minutes, which I have not yet defended and where my concern is mostly about defenses focusing more on denying him open looks and reducing his shooting efficiency (admittedly with no evidence to support that would happen). However, I was also clear in explaining my position that the primary reasons Hauser shouldn’t get more minutes on this Celtics team are: (1) that there are six players that are better than him on the roster and no logical place to get those extra minutes from; and (2) that player management reasons suggest that a situation where Hauser plays more than Horford might be a bad idea. The combination of those factors (that Horford remains better than Hauser, that Horford has already accepted a significant role reduction, and that a further role reduction might become a problem) means we shouldn’t expect a big change in Hauser’s minutes.
I also made a separate point, which was a response to the idea that there’s a lot of room for Hauser to improve via increased usage. I agree with that, but based on his admittedly pretty unique offensive profile, I don’t think the potential ramp up in usage will be all that large, for the reasons I explained. That wasn’t an argument about minutes at all (except possibly indirectly as to why we shouldn’t expect Hauser to transform into a player that forces the issue on minutes as against Horford), just one that we should all temper expectations on just how many shots Hauser can reasonably get based on the type of player he is.
To reiterate: I don’t think Hauser’s minutes will increase much (aside from the impact of his role expanding when we inevitably play some portion of the season at less than full health). That’s because I don’t think there’s any scenario where Horford is not the 6th man and first alternative as a starter when there are injuries. I also, independently, don’t see Hauser dramatically increasing his usage because players with his skillset aren’t high usage players.
I am not saying that Hauser cannot play 25-30 mpg as an abstract concept. If one of the top 6 players gets injured, I certainly expect Hauser to play more than he currently does and I think he’d be fine in that expanded role (although I wouldn’t be shocked if his shooting percentage was marginally reduced). Hauser is certainly a good enough NBA player to play more minutes on a less talented roster than the Celtics currently have.
Ha, sorry for the confusion. You took my "usage" wording too literally, which is my bad.
I strictly meant Joe would inch Hauser's minutes up in higher leverage situations and will sit more during garbage time.
I want him to stay with his style of play. Catch & shoot or move the ball quickly. No interest in him changing his "USAGE %"
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What is a Hauser extension next summer looking like? On the one hand, he's making enough of a leap that he could start on most teams, while making 40%+ of his 3s at high volume. That generally costs $15-22M/yr.
On the other hand, he's made almost nothing to this point in his career, and locking in tens of millions is a big deal for him. Do they balance that and end up around 4/$50?
(I need to check how many years he's allowed to add.)
On the other hand, he's made almost nothing to this point in his career, and locking in tens of millions is a big deal for him. Do they balance that and end up around 4/$50?
(I need to check how many years he's allowed to add.)
Feeling like this is something that really should happen asap. His defense and shooting seems undeniably real.
So, recent comps one might think about...which I think are lower than people are talking in the thread because Hauser isn't really playing starter minutes to this point (16 last year, 23 per game this year). All of below are 2023 signings, so largely (not wholly) reflecting new cap. Some more money sloshing around now, but I would guess not quite at level to double the comps AAV
Old friend Max Strus' 4/$63 is probably the high end comp - Strus plays more starter minutes than Hauser (28 last year, up to 35 this year speaking to Cavs view of his role/value)
Divencenzo at 4/$50 is another (26 min)
Georges Niang at 3/$26 mil is more similar in role though Hauser will get more as a wing (20 min a game also at .400 3pt)
Role player types like Keta Bates-Diop are down at 2/$5, playing in the 15-20 minute a game range prior two years
I'd guess it's more like a 4/$40 range or something like that at least if it happens soon - if he bumps up for whatever reason to the 25-30 minute range without losing anything performance wise you start to look at the $14-$16 mil or so range I'd guess.
Old friend Max Strus' 4/$63 is probably the high end comp - Strus plays more starter minutes than Hauser (28 last year, up to 35 this year speaking to Cavs view of his role/value)
Divencenzo at 4/$50 is another (26 min)
Georges Niang at 3/$26 mil is more similar in role though Hauser will get more as a wing (20 min a game also at .400 3pt)
Role player types like Keta Bates-Diop are down at 2/$5, playing in the 15-20 minute a game range prior two years
I'd guess it's more like a 4/$40 range or something like that at least if it happens soon - if he bumps up for whatever reason to the 25-30 minute range without losing anything performance wise you start to look at the $14-$16 mil or so range I'd guess.
If I'm his agent I'm pointing to Pritchards deal and countering with 4/$70m and waiting for the $60m counter. Ball now in your court Brad.
Since he's extending, it would be very tough for Sam to get Strus free agency money. He has even less leverage than RFA Grant (which was dampening)
I imagine Sam will be happy to extend & lock in 8-figure gtd money for multiple years.
Guessing 3ys for $30MM will probably work for both parties
Developing undrafted rookies, via 2-ways contracts, is a clever way for a team to add upperclassmen that get overlooked in the draft. That "draft status" also suppresses future contract costs.
It also helps greenlight Brad's use of FIRSTS during the Tatum window.
Note that he's not eligible to extend until July 9, 2024, so we will know a lot more about his usage then (for better or worse).
He has more leverage than Grant and PP, because he's a UFA at the end of the deal. He has less leverage than them because they had each made $10M+, whereas Hauser will be around $6M after his 3-year deal is up.
I think HRB is right as to the market. 4/$60-65M is probably fair value, and maybe the team can get it down to the $45-55M range in exchange for immediate security.
You've been pretty positive on Strus. Do you think Sam Hauser is as good as Max Strus right now?
Hauser's 3pt release is very scalable, an increase in minutes/attempts may not dent his efficiency all that much.
Chuck Hayes and all
I think Hauser will need to prove that he's playable in real playoff minutes (not blowouts) before he gets offered a deal of 3+ years for $10M+. Strus got his deal because he started 41 playoff games for the Heat over the last two seasons and played 28-29 mpg. Hauser will get a similar opportunity this year (hopefully not starting games, but playing around 20 mpg), here's to hoping he forces the Celtics to ante up.
Pritchard's deal at 4 / @$7.5M per? Yeah, Hauser should be north of that, but there's a pretty wide spectrum between Pritchard money and, I dunno, Max Strus money, to say nothing of "$19-20 per".
I expect both sides would be happy with a 4 / 50 contract, so $12.5M per, assuming he maintains his current levels this year and through the playoffs.
Hauser was a two-way player in 21-22, making $314k (converted to standard at the trade deadline), then signed a 3 year rookie-scale deal on July 9, 2022: $1.6M last year; $1.9 this year and $2.1 next year. So he can be extended on the 2nd anniversary, July 9 2024. He will have motivation to do so because he wouldn't hit free agency until summer 2025, so he'd be able to buy out a year of injury / performance risk (in 24-25) and lock in life-changing money. If he decided to "let it ride", he would also become a restricted free agent in summer 2025, which would reduce the market demand for him. So it seems to me the chances we can get him at a discount to what his theoretical FA value would be are high.
No. I'm a huge Strus guy compared to how he is perceived by many. Hauser isn't there yet but contracts are paid out based on potential as well and Hauser has made an enormous leap this year. His next step would be to show that he can play a larger role which I think he could if necessary (let's hope we don't ever find out).You've been pretty positive on Strus. Do you think Sam Hauser is as good as Max Strus right now?
Hauser's 3pt release is very scalable, an increase in minutes/attempts may not dent his efficiency all that much.
Chuck Hayes and all
Can't imagine Sam getting an extension greater than Austin Reaves' 4yr/$56MM free agency deal, but if he does something has gone very right...
You've been pretty positive on Strus. Do you think Sam Hauser is as good as Max Strus right now?
Hauser's 3pt release is very scalable, an increase in minutes/attempts may not dent his efficiency all that much.
Chuck Hayes and all
Yeah the degree to which the Lakers were praised for their [very mediocre] offseason was incredible, but that deal was great for them, full stop. It's frustrating that a team like the Spurs didn't force them to get close to $20M annually for him.
I still see Duncan Robinson as a better comp for Hauser than Strus (and I'll keep saying that Robinson is much more valuable playing 15-20 mpg than he is playing 25-30 mpg). Robinson signed for 5/90, and it immediately became one of the worst contracts in the league (though he's having a nice bounce back year so far this season). I don't see Hauser getting anything close to that from Boston.
I think the Strus comp is more about their roles on their respective teams and what they are asked to do. I don't see the Duncan comp since he's developed into more of a create off the dribble guy who gets to the rim whereas Hauser's role in the offense is more similar to Strus'.
Agree on the different roles in the offense. Hauser is a significantly better defender than Robinson.
I actually don't think they're similar aside from being white wings who shoot volume 3s well.
The idea that Hauser would get much worse in higher minutes seems much more based on faith than evidence. They don't hide him at all on D, and he's looked fine as a spot starter.
I actually don't think they're similar aside from being white wings who shoot volume 3s well.
The idea that Hauser would get much worse in higher minutes seems much more based on faith than evidence. They don't hide him at all on D, and he's looked fine as a spot starter.
I like that Pritchard is in here posting support of Slam Hauser. Good sign for team chemistry.
I was thinking Hauser looks as good as Gordon Hayward did for us, except for the passing.
Per 36: Hauser, so far this year: 15.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists. Shooting 46/42/83
Per 36: Hayward, 2019-2020: 18.8, 6.2, 4.4. Shot 50/38/86
So, he's not AS good, but he's not far off. That's a pretty good comp of a player to have as your 6th/7th man.
Per 36: Hauser, so far this year: 15.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists. Shooting 46/42/83
Per 36: Hayward, 2019-2020: 18.8, 6.2, 4.4. Shot 50/38/86
So, he's not AS good, but he's not far off. That's a pretty good comp of a player to have as your 6th/7th man.
That's fair, and I haven't seen that much of Robinson or Strus this year. Hauser/Robinson are better shooters than Strus, who I've always thought the latter was slightly more well rounded overall, which is why I like the DR comp more.
Beyond skin color, they were both undrafted wings who are 6'7/6'8 and weigh 215 lbs, they're both elite shooters at high volume, and despite not looking the part, they don't kill your defense when surrounded with strong teammates. Neither are really great at anything besides shooting, although Hauser is a solid rebounder and Robinson seems to be turning into a slightly better playmaker.
The higher minutes thing is definitely based more on faith because we haven't seen any evidence either way. If he plays more minutes (and routinely starts and closes games) he'd get a lot more minutes against opposing starters. This means more chances for him to get exposed defensively (it hasn't happened yet, but that doesn't mean it won't), and more time running around means his legs get tired faster (and it's not a given that his 3 point shot will be as efficient if he's playing 10 extra minutes).
Ultimately I think the only way his minutes go up closer to guys like Strus/Robinson is if one of Tatum/Brown miss an extended period of time, so I'm fine never knowing the answer.
Peak Duncan wasn't materially worse in effect than Sam, but the former hasn't played any defense in a long time. Strus is a better comp for Sam, despite being a little smaller. I know that folks still think that DR sat for long periods last year because his shot wasn't falling, and that's probably partly true. But his D-DPM and D-BPM has tanked the last couple of years. As for the eyeball test, I can't even say that I've seen him much this year, but man did he look like a dog on D the last couple before that.
If Sam Hauser was playing starter minutes against other team's starters, he would look nothing like the player he is. This is selling Gordon Hayward waaaaay short with this comparison.
This part of the Sam experience isn't quite as fun as opposing teams now know that he loves being worn by players he is covering. He holds his own against some very skilled players. And damn does her reliably make them pay for leaving him alone - the "reliably" part is something this team hasn't ever had during this cycle.
I'm all for refraining from inducting Hauser into the HoF for a while, but I think that you remember Hayward's years here more favorably than most. Not his fault, of course, but he was like a 1DPM, 1.7BPM player here.
edit: ha, how time has passed. We both spelled his name correctly.
I don't know nearly enough about advanced stats to argue one way or another, but dumb question: Looking at this chart, it looks like Hauser has played around 220 games in his career. This isn't true - he's played 124 (146 if we include playoffs). What am I missing?
Yeah but they look similar!
It really is amazing how every comp someone thinks of for a guy is someone of the same race. Strus, Robinson, Reaves, now we're reaching for Hayward. If Hauser put on a headband someone would say his game reminds them of Alex Caruso. If his shot got worse but his assist rate went up, someone would compare him to Donte DiVincenzo.
Danny Green then? Jae Crowder? Terrence Ross?
Hayward played for us, so I saw him play a lot. They seemed to have similar styles, though Hayward was much more of a playmaker and looking at the stats that panned out. They're shooting and rebounding at similar rates and Hauser doesn't have near the assists.
If Hauser is 85% the player Hayward was for us, in his roll, that's great. That's what I was trying to convey.