Cashman's Cano Contract Conundrum

[jon abbey]

Well, the gap between Cano and NY seems to have closed somewhat (all on Cano's side), from around $150M to maybe $80M (heh):
 
"Cano’s most recent offer to the Yankees, in a meeting last week, was a nine-year contract for between $250 and $260 million, the source said. The Yankees have countered with a seven-year deal for between $160 million and $175 million, a figure that would put Cano among the top five or six compensated position players in the game."
 
http://nypost.com/2013/11/30/cano-yankees-near-100-million-off-sources/

 

[MakMan44]

It has to be the years that are scaring the Yankees, right?
 
There's no way he'll play second for the life of a 9 year deal and a chunk of his value comes simply from playing there. 

 

[jon abbey]

Both the years and the AAV are still too high from Cano's side, I think that's clear to everyone or buyers would be lining up. 

 

[Doctor G]

I think they will end up a 7/203. That way Cano gets over 200, NYY keeps it under 30 M  and only 7 years.

 

[jon abbey]

I'll be very surprised if NY goes over 180, I don't think they really care if he leaves.

 

[Rasputin]

I'll be very surprised if NY goes over 180, I don't think they really care if he leaves.

 
That seems impossible to me.
 
Also, is there any way at all the Yanks are competitive in the short term without him?

 

[rembrat]

It seems very possible. I feel like there is no sense of urgency from NY and it's FO to re-sign Cano. They'll make a strong offer, which they have, and stand by it. In fact, the Yankee offer has been public for quite some time now. Cano's camp has no doubt shopped it around (or they're waiting for the GM's meeting to do) and gauged the market. It explains why they've come down from their initial demands. The Yankees just have to wait now...

 

[Sampo Gida]

I think they probably sign Cano at 8/200 now that Cano has come down some.  Don't think the fan base will accept losing out on Cano over a difference of  20 million.  Ratings already down at YES 30% last year, and attendance down 400K from 2009 with a steep decline expected in 2014, so the marketing guys are shaking in their boots if he goes.
 

 
That seems impossible to me.
 
Also, is there any way at all the Yanks are competitive in the short term without him?

 
They could take some of the money they save and sign Ellsbury (and trade Gardner for pitching).     Supposedly they are the favorites for Beltran, so that gives them an OF of Soriano, Ellsbury and Beltran.   Sign Infante at 2B with the rest of the Cano savings, Drew at SS and move Jeter to 3B.  For pitching they get Tanaka, someone else at the back end,  Rodney or Nathan in the pen.  Then pray for health.   That team could compete if they are healthy even if they might be over 189.   
 
I think they would rather have Cano and Gardner than Ellsbury and Infante.  The rest of the pieces they should pursue regardless

 

[jon abbey]

 
That seems impossible to me.
 
Also, is there any way at all the Yanks are competitive in the short term without him?

 
There is no way they are competitive in the short term with him, without him, or with him and his twin brother who is just as good as him. Their rotation currently consists of an inexplicably awful Sabathia, Ivan Nova, and three open spots. Even if Kuroda comes back, he was also awful down the stretch last year, again inexplicably. 

 

[jon abbey]

I think they probably sign Cano at 8/200 now that Cano has come down some.  Don't think the fan base will accept losing out on Cano over a difference of  20 million.

 
A huge amount of the comments I read on this from Yankee fans (maybe 70 percent?) seem quite happy to let Cano walk, rightly or wrongly.

 

[jon abbey]

It seems very possible. I feel like there is no sense of urgency from NY and it's FO to re-sign Cano. They'll make a strong offer, which they have, and stand by it. In fact, the Yankee offer has been public for quite some time now. Cano's camp has no doubt shopped it around (or they're waiting for the GM's meeting to do) and gauged the market. It explains why they've come down from their initial demands. The Yankees just have to wait now...

 
His agents seem like they're doing a horrendous job, it'll be interesting to see how it ends up. 

 

[jon abbey]

Jack Curry ‏@JackCurryYES1h
Yankees are very comfortable with 7-year, $160M offer to Cano. They're adamant about not going to an 8th year or an offer starting with a 2

 

[jon abbey]

“If [Cano’s people] plan is to get eight or nine years at $200 million, that’s not happening,’’ said an industry source with knowledge of the Yankees’ thinking.
 
http://nypost.com/2013/12/01/can-no-left-for-robbie/

 

[rembrat]

Jack Curry is basically a Yankee FO mouthpiece, right?

 

[jon abbey]

Jack Curry is basically a Yankee FO mouthpiece, right?

 
Kind of, not like Heyman/Boras in that they don't send false info they'd like made public through him (or I think he'd quit), but he is definitely closely connected by virtue of working at YES and very reliable on something like this. 

 

[Comeback Kid]

So if we take those comments at face value, the Yankees could be willing to sign Cano for as high as 7/196. That would still put Cano in rarefied air with a record breaking AAV of $28MM.

 

[rembrat]

I"m sorry where did you get 7/196 from?

 

[glennhoffmania]

I assume he's referring to the comments that they won't go more than 7 years and they won't give him $200m+.  Combine the two and their max may be 7/196 (or 7/199).

 

[Comeback Kid]

Obviously just speculation but it would be close to the upper limit of their parameters based on this tweet.

 
Jack Curry ‏@JackCurryYES1h
Yankees are very comfortable with 7-year, $160M offer to Cano. They're adamant about not going to an 8th year or an offer starting with a 2
 

 
It would also allow Cano's camp to save some face with the AAV after settling for over $100MM less than their initial demands.

 

[jon abbey]

The Yankees have shown no signs of moving from their original offer. As I said above yesterday "I'll be very surprised if NY goes over 180, I don't think they really care if he leaves."

 

[Rasputin]

We're living in a very strange world where Yankee fans want the Yankees to not spend money and Sox fans want the Yankees to spend money.
 
If I were looking at this from different eyes, I think I woule be Barbarino level confused.

 

[jon abbey]

Yankee fans want the Yankees to spend money intelligently, Boston fans want the Yankees to spend money stupidly. Everything is as it should be, don't worry.

 

[snowmanny]

Assuming ARod is suspended about how much $ does NY have to spend on Cano and two starting pitchers and Carlos Beltran if they want to stay under the cap?

 

[Rasputin]

Yankee fans want the Yankees to spend money intelligently, Boston fans want the Yankees to spend money stupidly. Everything is as it should be, don't worry.

 
Well, yes, but if you were too look at this through 2003 eyes, how would it look?

 

[jon abbey]

Assuming ARod is suspended about how much $ does NY have to spend on Cano and two starting pitchers and Carlos Beltran if they want to stay under the cap?

 
Not totally sure this is right, but Joel Sherman is trying to leep track of that here (and he has A-Rod included for now). If you take that data and combine it with Cot's for arb guys, you could probably get a good idea:
 
http://nypost.com/2013/11/05/yankees-payroll-tracker-on-road-to-189m/

 

[jon abbey]

Also Sherman's list doesn't include McCann yet. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

Mariners are supposedly interested. If he gets 200m, I hope it's from them.

 

[E5 Yaz]

What are the chances that whichever team doesn't get Cano -- NYY or Seattle -- grabs Ellsbury

 

[nattysez]

Here's the full article re: M's interest: http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/10073969/seattle-mariners-emerge-major-player-robinson-cano-sweepstakes
 

Sources familiar with the negotiations between the Yankees and Cano told ESPNNewYork.com that the Yankees believe Seattle might be willing to offer Cano $200 million over eight years.
 

 
If Cano winds up in Seattle for big money, I have to wonder if that'll be seen as a "win" for Jay-Z.  I mean, that'll be the last we hear of Cano if he goes there -- that team's not going to be a contender.

 

[iowacityiconoclast]

As a Sox fan, I hope the Yankees let Cano walk. His average season, over the last five years, has been 160 games played, with a .314/28/103 Triple Crown line, for a 6.8 fWAR. I think it's reasonable that he'll perform at a 5-7 win level for two or three years, and then decline to 2-5 wins per year in his mid-thirties.
 
it's worth noting that most of the really bad contracts have been given out to first basemen (Pujols, Fielder, Howard), or guys like A-Rod or Hamilton, whose main value is tied to their hitting. The good long-term contracts have traditionally gone to players with wide skill sets, who play difficult-to-fill defensive positions: Beltran's big deal with the Mets would be the standard bearer here. Even granting the long history of preciptitous declines by 2B's, Cano at 8/$200 has a good chance to be worth the price.  
 
 If the Yankees want to suddenly be fiscally responsible with this guy, after signing guys like CC and A-Rod to huge extensions, that's great news for Boston. I hope the Yankees let him walk.

 

[CaskNFappin]

If Cano walks, I think the Yankees quickly turn around and offer most of that money to Ells.  

 

[jon abbey]

If the Yankees want to suddenly be fiscally responsible with this guy, after signing guys like CC and A-Rod to huge extensions, that's great news for Boston. I hope the Yankees let him walk.

 
One quibble with that is that the CC extension was just one season. 
 
FWIW, NY hasn't 'suddenly' changed course with Cano, they have been relatively careful about all financial moves since going over their self-imposed budget to sign Teixeira in the 2008-2009 offseason. Combine that with the CBA changing, and their behavior since makes a lot more sense (although letting Martin walk and signing McCann for way way more money a year later will never ever make sense to me). 

 

[jon abbey]

Also keep in mind if 8/200 was really such a great deal for Cano, there would be other teams all over him in this marketplace filled with bloated deals. Today Mike Rizzo was the latest to say (via Jim Bowden on Twitter) that WAS was not interested in signing Cano at these prices. 

 

[Hoplite]

At seven or eight years, I'd be shocked if more teams didn't get involved. Just because we don't know about it, doesn't mean that multiple other teams aren't already involved. Until today, I hadn't heard any mention of the Mariners.

 

[jon abbey]

Oh, I totally missed the SEA story and discussion above, sorry. Cashman was referring to Cano as a Yankee in the past tense in interviews yesterday, I expect him to walk if he can get $200M or more elsewhere. 

 

[jon abbey]

If Cano winds up in Seattle for big money, I have to wonder if that'll be seen as a "win" for Jay-Z.  I mean, that'll be the last we hear of Cano if he goes there -- that team's not going to be a contender.

 
I bet they could have gotten that from NY if they hadn't started off with that ridiculous $300M+ proposal and stuck to it for so long, I have to think a 8/200 deal to SEA would be looked at as a mild loss for Jay-Z in the industry. 

 

[Brickowski]

My advice to Cashman: take the money you would have spent on Cano and spend it on pitching (not Ellsbury or Beltran).

IMHO Cano would make up the difference between a $200M Seattle offer and a hypothetical $170M Yankee offer in endorsement revenue in just a few months. But he'll love Seattle: no post season, no pressure, good coffee. He'll winter in the DR and miss some of the rain.

 

[Hoplite]

I'm sure there would be plenty of marketing opportunities for Cano in Seattle. That's one of the larger unshared geographical markets and he'd be a big fish in a little pond.

 

[Brickowski]

I'm sure there would be plenty of marketing opportunities for Cano in Seattle. That's one of the larger unshared geographical markets and he'd be a big fish in a little pond.

We'll see. As my late uncle used to say, after NYC every place else is Bridgeport.

 

[Average Reds]

Oh, I totally missed the SEA story and discussion above, sorry. Cashman was referring to Cano as a Yankee in the past tense in interviews yesterday, I expect him to walk if he can get $200M or more elsewhere. 

 
If the Yankees want to exert leverage, they are going to do exactly what Cashman is doing and feign indifference.  But you don't offer a player a package described as being between $160 and $175 million if you are indifferent.
 
The Yankees want him back.  But they are convinced (not unreasonably) that they don't face any serious competition.  So they're turning up the heat almost exactly like they did with Jeter a few years ago.  And I think they'll eventually sign him for 7 years with a team option for the 8th as a way of saving face.  (Ans I mean saving face for Cano, not the Yankees.)

 

[jon abbey]

I don't think they are indifferent, but I also think they have decided what their limits are for him and won't go further, regardless of whether or not there is another team who will.  Again, they haven't raised their initial offer at all and I don't expect them to unless it is to finalize a deal at $180M or below (which I think is their ceiling for him). 

 

[Murderer's Crow]

If they sign him to a 7/160 deal, would that be seen as a steal, too much, or just a normal deal? I still feel like that would be a slight overpay but I wouldn't be upset about it.

 

[iowacityiconoclast]

I think that fans have a tendency to under-predict the markets for elite players. Certainly, I've reliably underestimated what free agents get on the market. I absolutely did not think that anyone would offer Pujols the salary he received. I underestimated Hamilton's contract. I wildly underestimated Fielder's deal.
 
With TV revenue kicking in, there are a lot of teams with cash to spend. Cano is the only elite player hitting the market this year, and with teams locking up younger players to extensions, he might be the best free agent coming to the market for a while. I view 8/200 as the break-even point....if a team gets him for less years/less average annual salary, I'd count that as a win for the team. If Cano gets more than 8/200, it's likely an overpay, though not as drastic an overpay as people think.
 
If the line is 8/200, I'd bet the over. Especially in annual salary.

 

[Comeback Kid]

 
If Cano winds up in Seattle for big money, I have to wonder if that'll be seen as a "win" for Jay-Z.  I mean, that'll be the last we hear of Cano if he goes there -- that team's not going to be a contender.

This is a good point and I really think Jay-Z could be the x-factor here. This is his first foray in agency in MLB and you have to think he wants to make a big splash or at least show what he can bring to the table compared to other agents.

The BP podcast had an episode a few weeks ago detailing some of Jay-Z's business accomplishments and how they could relate to his representation of Cano. He has done some impressive stuff but it clearly remains to be seen what he could pull off here.

 

[Hoplite]

This is a good point and I really think Jay-Z could be the x-factor here. This is his first foray in agency in MLB and you have to think he wants to make a big splash or at least show what he can bring to the table compared to other agents.

The BP podcast had an episode a few weeks ago detailing some of Jay-Z's business accomplishments and how they could relate to his representation of Cano. He has done some impressive stuff but it clearly remains to be seen what he could pull off here.

 
I would think as a businessman Jay-Z would want to make himself the most money by getting Cano the largest contract possible.

 

[jon abbey]

I think that fans have a tendency to under-predict the markets for elite players. Certainly, I've reliably underestimated what free agents get on the market. I absolutely did not think that anyone would offer Pujols the salary he received. I underestimated Hamilton's contract. I wildly underestimated Fielder's deal.
 
With TV revenue kicking in, there are a lot of teams with cash to spend. Cano is the only elite player hitting the market this year, and with teams locking up younger players to extensions, he might be the best free agent coming to the market for a while. I view 8/200 as the break-even point....if a team gets him for less years/less average annual salary, I'd count that as a win for the team. If Cano gets more than 8/200, it's likely an overpay, though not as drastic an overpay as people think.
 
If the line is 8/200, I'd bet the over. Especially in annual salary.

 
I'm with you, until the 'win for the team' part. Hamilton's contract has hurt the Angels from almost the moment it was signed, same with Pujols, same with Fielder (maybe a year in on his). We haven't even gotten to the decline years on any of those deals, the teams who passed on signing those guys are the winners, not the teams who signed them. 
 
Which isn't to say Cano might not get more than 8/200, because he certainly might. I wouldn't count it as a 'win for the team' until we see how the actual deal plays out, though. 

 

[Brickowski]

Cano is a great player, but does resigning him make the Yankees a contender? I don't think so. The left side of their infield is still a shambles and so is their starting rotation.

Spend the money on Tanaka and another good starter. Add a couple of bullpen arms, including at least one decent left hander. Then worry about second base.

The Red Sox showed that adding some pretty good position players with decent chemistry is a better strategy than throwing bushels of long-term money at one or two stars.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

My advice to Cashman: take the money you would have spent on Cano and spend it on pitching...

 
Please explain how that would happen.

 

[Sampo Gida]

With Salty signing for about 10 million AAV less than McCann I wonder if the Yankees regret their decision to splurge at C.  Especially with price for Beltran seeming to be up to 18 million AAV on him, and the posting system being changed in a way which will drive up Tanakas AAV, perhaps to 15 million AAV.
 
The savings at C would have also made it easier to sign Cano at a reasonable 25 million AAV.
 
We all know the Yankees can easily afford all of it, but they must have good PR if 70% of Yankee fans believe sitting on a pile of money while attendance, ratings and franchise value plummet is  better than putting it work and fielding a competitive team and filling stands with paying customers and boosting advertising revenues on YES

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I'm sure there would be plenty of marketing opportunities for Cano in Seattle. That's one of the larger unshared geographical markets and he'd be a big fish in a little pond.

 
Oh, yeah, the dollars will be rolling in when he's making local TV ads like this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkBFoCToFxw